FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Domestic Consequences of Middle East War on Both the U.S. and Canada

It is now over six months since the U.S. and Israel first bombed Iran and began a war which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, stopping the transport of oil and other important products.  Anyone who drives knows one of the primary consequences has been the significant rise in the cost of gas, diesel and petrochemical products in both countries.  Indeed, the continuing high fuel costs has now begun to show up in recent inflation figures.  After all, we all know these additional costs are simply passed on to consumers, be they related to manufacturing, transportation or agriculture.  Indeed, the “affordability” issue is now number one in a long line of economic issues affecting the Trump administration as Republicans ride into the upcoming mid-terms.

In addition, the Iran war has now been expanded throughout the Middle East region, further exasperating the problem of global fossil fuel shortages.  The war is also being carried out by Iran’s proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq.  Very recently, another far longer route to Asia through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean came under threat as drones hit tankers in Egypt — opening up a whole new front.  Reportedly, Revolutionary Guards commanders have also been deployed by Iran to serve directly on Hezbollah’s leadership council in Lebanon.  As a result of Iran’s proxy attacks throughout the region, many Middle East states have been directly affected including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Jordon, and even Egypt.  Iran’s bombing of Gulf energy facilities has caused oil prices to spike to their highest level since the war began, making it clear that increased escalation would lead to further economic costs for both the U.S. and Canada.

Most recently there have been cyberattacks on U.S. water systems, initially in Michigan and Minnesota.  Officials and experts have warned that there is evidence the attacks have grown to include at least seven states and may be far wider in scope.  As American authorities race to safeguard the nation’s water supply against such assaults, it is reported that the attacks increasingly appear to be the work of Iranian hackers.  To date, Canada has been spared such attacks on its critical infrastructure.  The use of cyber warfare is extremely alarming given the extent to which critical infrastructure depends on computers and internet connections.  Indeed, in a recent advisory, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said the hackers were “targeting water entities of all sizes” and recommended facilities unplug vulnerable controllers from the internet.  The agency has for months been warning the public that Iran may seek to compromise water and wastewater utilities and other critical infrastructure, including government services and facilities and energy sectors.  Such hacking ability means that potentially any facility using vulnerable internet-connected operational systems is at risk.  In addition, such potential attacks means that increased security and remedial measures taken to secure operational systems will prove to be very costly for many public and private organizations.

While both the U.S and Canada are not dependent on oil and gas from the Gulf states, the global nature of the industry means that the higher prices will remain in North America as long as the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  Indeed, the consequences of the war will continue to be felt for months ahead and possibly years.  In light of Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states’ energy infrastructures, one cannot just flip a switch and expect pre-war amounts of oil to flow overnight.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. will be faced with higher fuel costs for some time to come, especially since domestic oil and gas production is already at their maximum levels.  Despite the fact that both countries are energy independent, global oil and gas production and its markets will continue to directly influence domestic prices and contribute to inflationary pressures. 

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250 Years of Numerous U.S. Flawed Foreign Policy Excursions

Manifest Destiny was a 19th-century American ideology which held that the U.S. was divinely ordained to expand across the North American continent.  Coined in 1845, the concept justified territorial expansion, the spread of American democracy, and the displacement of Indigenous peoples and foreign powers.  The current president has even alluded to its re-emergence as a U.S.
foreign policy in the southern hemisphere.

One past result was the Spanish–American War of 1898, fought between Spain and the U.S., which  began with the sinking of the USS Maine in Havana Harbour in Cuba. The war resulted in the U.S. acquiring sovereignty over Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines and establishing a protectorate over Cuba.  It represented U.S. intervention in the Cuban War of Independence and the Philippine Revolution, the latter later leading to the Philippine–American War in 1899. The Spanish–American War brought an end to almost four centuries of Spanish presence in the Americas, Asia, and the Pacific. The U.S. meanwhile not only became a major world power, but also gained several island possessions spanning the globe, which provoked rancorous debate over the wisdom of expansionism.

As for Cuba prior to the Cuban Revolution under Fidel Castro in 1959, the Batista regime was a U.S.-backed dictatorship in Cuba led by Fulgencio Batista.  Batista seized power via a military coup in 1952.  His government was characterized by extreme corruption, human rights violations, and a close alliance with the American Mafia, which controlled lucrative Havana casinos and hotels.  Shortly after Fidel Castro overthrew the much hated Batista regime, the U.S. portrayed Castro as a Soviet-backed Communist, something which was not true at the time.  However, following the failed CIA-supported “Bay of Pigs” invasion of Cuba in 1961 and American sanctions levied on Cuba’s largest export “sugar” to the U.S., the Cubans had no choice but to seek economic and military assistance from the Soviet Union.

Then came the Vietnam War beginning in 1955 which lasted until 1973 when U.S. forces were hastily withdrawn following the downfall of the South Vietnamese dictatorship.  The conflict was the second of the Indochina wars and perceived by the U.S. as a proxy war of the Cold War period between the Soviet Union and U.S.  However, the Vietnam War was actually one of the postcolonial wars of national liberation, and an internal civil war between North and South Vietnam.  According to the National Archives, a total of 58,220 U.S. military personnel were killed or went missing in action during War. This total includes 47,434 who died from hostile action and 10,786 who died from non-hostile (e.g. drugs, suicides) causes.  Within the U.S., the war eventually gave rise to the so-called “Vietnam syndrome”— an aversion to American overseas military involvement, which, with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, contributed to the crisis of confidence that affected the U.S. throughout the 1970s.

Next came the U.S occupation of Iraq which lasted from 2003 to 2011, beginning with the invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein and ending with the formal withdrawal of U.S. combat troops. The Coalition, led by the U.S., was the result of false American accusations that Hussein was directly involved in September 11th (9/11).  The occupation was marked by a rapid but contentious regime change in Iraq.  This resulted in the Coalition’s controversial governance, a devastating insurgency, and eventual phased troop draw-downs.  However, today Iraq is still facing economic and political instability, on-going insurgency and government corruption forcing the U.S. to maintain troops within the country.  The situation also resulted in the eventual emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a trans-national militant Islamist and terrorist group.

The war in Afghanistan was an armed conflict lasting from 2001 to 2021, the longest war in American history.  It began with an invasion by a U.S.–led coalition in response to 9/11 attacks carried out by the Taliban-allied and Afghanistan-based al-Qaeda. The Taliban were subsequently expelled from major population centers by American-led forces, thus toppling the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate.  In 2004, the U.S.-backed Islamic Republic was established.  However, by then, the Taliban had reorganized and begun an insurgency against the Afghan government and coalition forces. The conflict finally ended in 2021 when a Taliban offensive re-established the Islamic Emirate, resulting in the hasty evacuation of U.S. personnel and allied Afghans and leaving the Taliban once again in complete control of the country.

Today, one has an over four month war with Iran by the U.S. and Israel.  NATO allies were not consulted prior to the attacks, resulting in most countries not supporting the military action beyond destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities. From the outset, the reasons given for the U.S. attacks on Iran were several, but very unclear as to the primary reason.  At various times, President Trump talked about possible regime change in Iran.  Other times, it was suggested that the main goal was to reduce Iran’s military capabilities in order to dissuade its regime from sponsoring terrorist activities in the Middle East and elsewhere, especially as they pertained to Israel.  Most recently, the reason give is the total elimination of Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, something that the U.S. had declared destroyed after earlier targeted bombings of key enrichment sites.  However, in retaliation, no one appears to have seriously and in creditably envisioned Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz by military force.  Iran’s control over the Strait is primarily a “de facto” dominance achieved through geographic advantage and heavy militarization.  Under international law, Iran does not have the legal right to completely close or unilaterally block the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.  However, Iran is using its closure as a means to put pressure on the U.S. to end the war on its own terms.  The Strait’s closure and Iran’s attacks on oil and gas facilities in neighbouring Middle East states has led to a dramatic increase in the price of oil across the globe, including in the U.S.  At this time, there appears to be no sign of a meaningful long-term peace agreement between Iran and the U.S.  Moreover, one has a current American president who had clearly and vigorously campaigned on keeping the U.S. out of foreign wars.

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U.S. Current Involvement In The Middle East Is Just Making Things Worst In The Region

As if the continuing supply of American weaponry to Israel isn’t destabilizing enough with respect to Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran, now the Trump administration has bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and Israel has undertaken further military actions in Syria.  Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition now has received carte blanche from the U.S. to do whatever they believe is in their strategic interests, even if this means further threatening the political and economic stability in the region.  Iran is economically in a mess, and American military actions have simply caused greater consternation and outrage.  Indeed, according to the United Nations’ refugee agency, one of the immediate consequences is the fact that Iran has speeded up its deportation back to Afghanistan of Afghan refugees who number more than 1.4 million in the country.  It’s been reported that the mass expulsions threaten to push Afghanistan further toward the brink of economic collapse with the sudden cut off of vital remittance money to Afghan families from relatives in Iran.  In addition, the sudden influx of returnees piles on Afghanistan’s already grim unemployment, housing and health-care crises.  More than half of Afghanistan’s estimated population of 41 million already relies on humanitarian assistance.

In the case of Syria, Israel recently launched deadly airstrikes on Syria’s capital, damaging a compound housing the defence ministry and hitting an area near the presidential palace, according to the Israeli military and Syrian authorities. The bombardment in central Damascus followed days of bloody clashes involving Syrian government forces in the southern region of Sweida, the heartland of the country’s Druse minority and a strategically important province near Israel and Jordan.  Israeli officials have argued previously that they want to prevent any hostile forces in Syria from entrenching near their borders.  Syria of course has a new interim government following the overthrow of former dictator Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.  Syria’s new president Ahmed al-Shara has tried to stabilize the country since the change of regime and has also attempted to forge closer relations with the U.S.  However, Israeli military actions in Syria could damage these potential improved relations.  The Trump administration so far has been silent on the Israeli initiatives, except to state that they are “very concerned” over the Israeli strikes.

For an administration that claims it is against wars and the killing of civilians in particular, Trump appears to have taken a wait-and-watch position when it comes to Israel’s military actions in the region.  This position has given clear support to Netanyahu’s aggressive military initiatives, whether right or wrong.  This could lead to more awkward and contentious relations between the two administrations.  Even Israel’s apparent attempts to improve relations with other Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia could be in jeopardy with the continuation of Israel’s attacks on its neighbouring states.  It’s becoming harder and harder to justify Israel’s military actions back home in the U.S. and in turn America’s continuing major involvement and military support.  The prospects of a more permanent cease fire with the Palestinians and Iranians is increasingly becoming that much more difficult under the circumstances.

In addition, Ehud Olmert, a former Israeli prime minister, said in an interview with the New York Times: “In Israel, Netanyahu is ready to sacrifice everything for his survival and we are closer to a civil war than people realize. In Gaza, we have returned to fighting — and for what?  And overseas, I never remember such hatred, such opposition, to the state of Israel.”  Opposition to the actions of the Netanyahu administration is growing among Western countries, including Great Britain, the European Union and Canada.  All in all, there is little doubt that the Middle East region is today more unstable than ever, and the Trump administration through it actions or lack thereof has greatly contributed the region’s instability.

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Why Has The US Media Forgotten About Iraq?

It’s April 15, 2013, and Forbes is reporting that bombs hit several cities across Iraq, killing at least 20 people. In a recent survey (Washington Post, March 18, 2013), Iraqis said they felt better about their security but worse about economic and political stability since the U.S. military left in late 2011. The Iraq decade-long war is reported to have cost the U.S. the loss of 4,400 U.S. service personnel and 32,000 wounded, as well as a couple of trillion dollars of taxpayers money. Not to mention the deaths of an estimated 120,000 Iraqi civilians over the same period. Today, religious and ethic divisions continue to pervade much of Iraq, threatening to set the country back again. Current Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s political muscle will be severely tested against Shi’ite and Sunni rivals in a scheduled parliamentary election in 2014. While the U.S. continues to pour millions into the strengthening of security forces and the restoration of the country’s infrastructure, the mainstream American media have for the most part chosen to virtually ignore recent developments in Iraq. Perhaps this is because all the attention is being given to Syria and the rise of terrorists’ factions in Africa. Indeed, the Iraqi government very likely prefers it this way. Whatever the reason, one can only hope that more media attention will be paid to the seriousness of the Iraqi situation — even though some Americans may rather choose to forget the unfortunate history and outcomes surrounding this decade-old conflict.

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