FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Aug 19

How the U.S. Cannot Afford to Not Have Free Trade With Canada

by bcurry

While all the attention being paid in the media to the current trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S., and the ongoing Trump ultimatums proclaiming possible new tariffs on Canadian exports to the States, the real issue is that the U.S. needs access to Canadian goods and services.  It’s not simply because there has been major integration in each country’s markets in numerous sectors, but also is due to the vast amounts of Canadian resources currently and in the future available to the U.S.  These include those in the energy sector such as oil and gas and electricity, in the mining sector with respect to rare minerals, uranium and key minerals such as copper and iron ore, and in the vast availability of potash deposits.

One only has to look at electricity produced as a result of the massive James Bay and Churchill Falls projects completed decades ago.  For the past two decades, Hydro‑Québec has been selling clean, reliable and competitively priced electricity into wholesale markets in northeastern North America.  For example, Hydro-Québec has been selling electricity into New England since the 1980s. This U.S. region accounts for about half the company’s exports.  In addition, Québec has a long history of supplying clean, renewable energy to the State of New York, beginning as far back as 1914.  In the case of New York State, Hydro-Québec can contribute in the future to the long-term clean energy vision for New York which includes:

  • 70% of the state’s electricity use to be met by renewables by 2030,
  • 100% of New York City operations to be powered from renewable sources,
  • retired nuclear plants replaced by other non-emitting generating facilities, and
  • construction of a 1,000-MW interconnection between Québec and New York City and efforts to expand existing interconnections importing clean energy.

Just this week, an agreement was signed by Québec, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Federal Government to increase up to 14,000 megawatts of new and existing hydroelectric developments in Labrador and along the Churchill River.  This mega project will represent the largest clean energy undertaking to date in North America.  Once finalized later this year, the proposal would realize a long-sought goal in Newfoundland and Labrador to transmit power from Labrador — up to 985 megawatts — through Québec to markets in the U.S.

The U.S. also imports oil from the vast reserves in Alberta’s Tar Sands, representing about 30% of total American oil imports.  Interestingly, the Trump administration has apparently linked the current possible looming trade agreement to the Keystone XL, a major pipeline project that would have transported oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast. There is speculation that a new project, closely mirroring Keystone XL, could return this year as a U.S. company filed an application in Montana to build a pipeline bringing in Canadian oil.  Again, Canada had previously supported the proposed pipeline, only to have had the Biden administration scrap the project in 2021 due to environmental concerns.  Obviously and notably, Trump wants to resurrect the project in light of the current problems with the supply of oil in the Middle East due to the war with Iran, resulting in higher gas prices for Americans.

When it comes to rare minerals, Canada’s rare earth companies span every stage of development — from Vital Metals’ operational Nechalacho mine in the Northwest Territories to early-stage ionic clay and projects across British Columbia, Québec, Saskatchewan, and Labrador. Canada ranks among the most important non-Chinese jurisdictions for “rare earth element” supply development, with federal and provincial governments actively co-funding projects through the Critical Minerals Strategy.  Canada holds some of the largest known resources of rare earths globally, estimated in 2024 at over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide.  Such resources would provide a stable and secure supply of critical minerals for not only U.S. industries, but also for NATO countries for use in crucial defence-related initiatives.

Given everything, it’s easy to see why Canadians were upset when Trump declared that the U.S.does not need anything from Canada.  I’d like to strongly suggest that his assertion is totally wrong given all of the evidence.  Without encumbering and unnecessary tariffs, Canada as a major trading partner ensures that the U.S. is that much stronger both economically and geopolitically.



Canada Donald Trump Economy Energy Foreign Policy Foreign Policy NAFTA Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Protectionist Trade Policies Trade with U.S. US US.-Canada Relations

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Aug 2

Domestic Consequences of Middle East War on Both the U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

It is now over six months since the U.S. and Israel first bombed Iran and began a war which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, stopping the transport of oil and other important products.  Anyone who drives knows one of the primary consequences has been the significant rise in the cost of gas, diesel and petrochemical products in both countries.  Indeed, the continuing high fuel costs has now begun to show up in recent inflation figures.  After all, we all know these additional costs are simply passed on to consumers, be they related to manufacturing, transportation or agriculture.  Indeed, the “affordability” issue is now number one in a long line of economic issues affecting the Trump administration as Republicans ride into the upcoming mid-terms.

In addition, the Iran war has now been expanded throughout the Middle East region, further exasperating the problem of global fossil fuel shortages.  The war is also being carried out by Iran’s proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq.  Very recently, another far longer route to Asia through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean came under threat as drones hit tankers in Egypt — opening up a whole new front.  Reportedly, Revolutionary Guards commanders have also been deployed by Iran to serve directly on Hezbollah’s leadership council in Lebanon.  As a result of Iran’s proxy attacks throughout the region, many Middle East states have been directly affected including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Jordon, and even Egypt.  Iran’s bombing of Gulf energy facilities has caused oil prices to spike to their highest level since the war began, making it clear that increased escalation would lead to further economic costs for both the U.S. and Canada.

Most recently there have been cyberattacks on U.S. water systems, initially in Michigan and Minnesota.  Officials and experts have warned that there is evidence the attacks have grown to include at least seven states and may be far wider in scope.  As American authorities race to safeguard the nation’s water supply against such assaults, it is reported that the attacks increasingly appear to be the work of Iranian hackers.  To date, Canada has been spared such attacks on its critical infrastructure.  The use of cyber warfare is extremely alarming given the extent to which critical infrastructure depends on computers and internet connections.  Indeed, in a recent advisory, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said the hackers were “targeting water entities of all sizes” and recommended facilities unplug vulnerable controllers from the internet.  The agency has for months been warning the public that Iran may seek to compromise water and wastewater utilities and other critical infrastructure, including government services and facilities and energy sectors.  Such hacking ability means that potentially any facility using vulnerable internet-connected operational systems is at risk.  In addition, such potential attacks means that increased security and remedial measures taken to secure operational systems will prove to be very costly for many public and private organizations.

While both the U.S and Canada are not dependent on oil and gas from the Gulf states, the global nature of the industry means that the higher prices will remain in North America as long as the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  Indeed, the consequences of the war will continue to be felt for months ahead and possibly years.  In light of Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states’ energy infrastructures, one cannot just flip a switch and expect pre-war amounts of oil to flow overnight.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. will be faced with higher fuel costs for some time to come, especially since domestic oil and gas production is already at their maximum levels.  Despite the fact that both countries are energy independent, global oil and gas production and its markets will continue to directly influence domestic prices and contribute to inflationary pressures. 

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Jul 14

Finally, One Can No Longer Ignore the Impact of Climate Change

by bcurry

Where I live in Ottawa, Ontario, one has seen an increase in severe storms like never before, causing much damage ranging from flooding to large trees, structures and electrical poles being toppled by wind gusts.  Indeed, the Weather Network has recently reported that Ontarians are feeling the hottest temperatures recorded in the last 90 years.  Temperatures felt like the low 40s across Ontario as the heat and humidity continued to ramp up.  As was the case not that long ago, what could compound the heat issues was once again wildfire smoke that reached parts of the province from neighbouring Quebec, lowering localized air quality and causing respiratory problems.

While tornadoes and flash floods are eye-catching disasters, extreme heat silently claims more lives than most other severe weather events combined.  One glaring example of this was the historic Chicago heat wave of 1995, where feels-like values rose into the 40s for days on end.  The heat claimed more than 500 lives, affecting most residents who lived in neighbourhoods lacking reliable access to air conditioning.  Another event was British Columbia ’s heat dome in June 2021 which claimed a similarly high toll, with nearly 600 people dying in the province as a result of the historic streak of high temperatures.  Most recently, data shows that Europe recorded over 10,000 excess deaths during a late-June heat wave.  Scientists have concluded that this heat wave would have been “virtually impossible” without ‌human-caused climate change, making heat waves more frequent and intense.

However, despite the fact that the U.S. produces around 40% of global greenhouse emissions, the current federal administration is cutting programs aimed at reducing man-made emissions, including initiatives promoting the development of green energy in favour of fossil fuels.  President Trump announced in February 2026 that he was erasing the scientific finding that climate change endangers human health and the environment, ending the federal government’s legal authority to control the pollution that is dangerously heating the planet.  The action is considered a key step in removing limits on carbon dioxide, methane and four other greenhouse gases that scientists say are supercharging heat waves, droughts, wildfires and other extreme weather.

In Canada, Prime Minister Carney is also pushing for more large energy projects involving the production and transportation of fossil fuels, particularly out of Alberta.  However, the federal and provincial governments are at least continuing to develop more electricity production sources involving green energy, such as in the nuclear sector.  However, previous Canadian targets for greenhouse emissions reduction have been put off until much later dates due to economic considerations.

There is little doubt that extreme heat events will become more common in the years to come.  It’s more important than ever to recognize the dire and silent toll that extreme heat can exact upon vulnerable populations, and work to mitigate the dangers posed by prolonged hot temperatures in communities that don’t have adequate access to ways to cool off.  In addition, communities will have to improve their infrastructure capabilities to better cope with extreme events ranging from flooding, wildfires, tornadoes and hurricanes.  Currently, it has become increasingly obvious that the existing infrastructure and prevention programs are inadequate to ensure our safety during such events.  Following the aftermath of such events, the monetary costs alone are enormous for victims, insurance companies and governments at all levels.

The time for governments to act is right now.  One must act against those who claim climate change as a “hoax”.  In order to encourage our two countries to transition away from fossil fuels and toward solar, wind and other nonpolluting energy, we must counteract groups of conservative activists as well as oil, gas and coal interests.  Otherwise, as eluded to by the American Environmental Defense Fund, one can expect that greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 10 percent over the next 30 years.  Moreover, environmental concerns do not stop at our borders.

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Jan 11

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Obvious Distraction From America’s Domestic Issues

by bcurry

For weeks now, the Trump administration has caught world media attention with its incursion into Venezuela and capture of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife.  However, attempting to avoid the appearance of seeking regime change, Trump has instead now focused on the oil reserves in that country.  What is not clear is whether the CEOs of major oil companies were consulted before hand, especially as they are apparently not ready to invest billions of dollars toward the restoration of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.  Economically and from a business perspective, the addition of that country’s crude oil would not make much difference to gas and oil prices in the U.S., certainly in the short term.  In addition, continuing the naval blockade against oil tankers in the region has become a costly endeavour and has stretched the operational capabilities of U.S. forces.

More recently, Trump has turned his attention to directing his overall foreign policy strategy to Greenland, Cuba and even Iran.  For example, he has repeatedly said that the U.S. must take control of the strategically located and mineral-rich island, which is a semi-autonomous region of NATO ally Denmark.  From a military standpoint, the U.S. already has a defense agreement with Denmark
dating back to 1951.  Its installation at the remote Pituffik Space Base in the northwest of Greenland
currently supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the U.S. and NATO.  There is nothing to stop the Americans from increasing their military presence on the island under the current agreement.  Instead, it became evident, as in the case of Venezuela, that his administration is more interested in exploring business and mining deals by controlling Greenland’s governance.

Next, we have statements by Trump about the economic impact of the loss of Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba.  The control of Cuba and removal of its current regime is a big personal issue for Secretary of State Marco Rubio who has family ties to Cuba.  A day after the U.S. captured Maduro, Rubio issued a warning to Cuba, telling NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that he thinks the country is “in a lot of trouble.”  As in the case of Venezuela, Trump has suggested that the U.S. could run Cuba.

Finally, Trump’s attention has also turned to Iran and the current large-scale protests against the current regime under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, mostly as a result the deteriorating economic situation in Iran and the regime’s heavy handed approach to any opposition.  Iranian protests rage and civilian deaths mount. Trump has renewed his warning of possible U.S. intervention, without being very specific about what a U.S. intervention might involve.  Khamenei has accused the U.S. and Israel of having hands “stained with the blood of Iranians”, arguing that they are behind the protests.  Trump has simply asserted that any possible American strike wouldn’t “mean boots on the ground but that means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.” 

As many historians and political scientists have asserted in the past, the focus on foreign policy initiatives, especially those involving military actions, are often a form of distraction from economic and political problems at home.  One only needs to remember the former unpopular U.K. Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, and her administration’s military actions in 1982 against Argentina over the Falkland Islands.  Even some Republicans in Congress are beginning to question the foreign policy goals of the Trump administration.  Far-right activists such as Laura Loomer, Tucker Carlson and others opposed the operation in Venezuela, maintaining that Americans will ultimately pay the price.  They have also questioned how the administration’s vague plans are squared with a commitment to refrain from military intervention and regime change, something certainly not in line with Trump’s “America First” base.

Moreover, on America’s domestic front, things are not going well politically and economically.  Unemployment is up and inflation continues to rise, especially for food, housing and other staples.  The operation of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) in numerous cities has resulted in harm to American citizens and legal immigrants, including recent ICE-related deaths and injuries.  As a result, country-wide protests against ICE initiatives have emerged, leading to administration officials having to justify the use of force against protesters.

Recent polling has shown that Trump’s popularity has fallen to an all time low, including with respect to his once-popular immigration policies.  In addition, hundreds of cases involving the administration’s policies are before the courts.  Americans’ trust in the judicial system and governance has taken a massive beating.  For this reason, a strong argument can be made that the Trump administration has decided to assert U.S. foreign policy and power in order to distract from continuing domestic problems.


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Jul 3

Trump’s Current Energy Policies Just Don’t Make Sense

by bcurry

There is no more clean and renewable federal energy support in the U.S.as a result of Donald Trump’s most recent policy actions.  In his first term as president, he imposed tariffs on imported solar panels, whereby American companies opened or announced plans for new U.S. solar panel factories, thereby reviving a manufacturing business that had largely withered away.  Now, those same companies, particularly in solar manufacturing, are concerned that the attack on clean energy, especially solar and wind, and increasing support for fossil fuels will mean a potential disaster for the continued growth of the industry.  Indeed, it has been reported that Mike Carr, the executive director of Solar Energy Manufacturers for America, concluded that the administration’s policies would give the entire solar manufacturing industry over to China starting in 2027.  The shift has been particularly jarring in Texas and other Sun Belt states.  For example, renewable energy companies had announced plans for $64 billion in new investments in Texas, mostly for solar and battery storage projects, when Washington passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022. 

On the other hand, the oil and gas industry is counting on the administration’s help to keep oil and gas prices higher in order to increase exploration and lower fracking costs, and subsequently their profits.  With a strong desire not to offend the president, one has to remember that the oil and gas industry apparently spent more than $75 million to elect Trump.  Interestingly, the U.S. also relies heavily on Canadian oil in particular, which American refineries combine with domestic crude to make gasoline and diesel fuel.  For this reason, there is much industry anxiety around the tariffs on Canadian oil currently set at 10 percent.  This and cross border pipeline discussions will certainly dominate trade talks between the two countries.

Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency — paired with other executive orders — amounts to a promise to test the limits of presidential power to ensure demand for fossil fuels, including coal, remains robust.  It’s a sharp reversal from his predecessor’s agenda, which aimed to push the nation away from fuels that are primarily responsible for climate change.  In addition, Trump’s efforts to support coal during his first term were no match for cheap natural gas that ultimately out competed coal in the market.  U.S. coal consumption reportedly declined more than a third during Trump’s first term.  Coal extraction is clearly no longer economically viable.

Studies have also shown that any restrictions on renewable development would increase electricity prices over the next decade in both Canada and the U.S., and potentially leave thousands of homes without electricity during extreme weather events.  For this reason, Canada is continuing to promote the expansion of clean energy, including that produced by nuclear and wind and solar.  On the other hand, the demand for electricity continues to increase due to new high tech needs, including those related to transportation and artificial intelligence.  Canada, unlike the U.S. under President Trump, is still committed to tackling the adverse effects of climate change by attempting to lessen our reliance on fossil fuels and by reducing our green house emissions.

Solar energy and wind power are much more capable of having electricity provided in a more decentralized and efficient way by being located closer to the sources of need, without the requirement for costly long-distance transmission infrastructure.  This more mobile asset can reduce the initial costs of electricity production and in turn the costs of delivery to consumers.  Not surprisingly, the current shift has been particularly jarring in Texas, a Republican state and the nation’s top wind power producer, second only to California in solar energy and industrial battery storage.  Moreover, the Trump administration’s energy policies just don’t make sense, adding to the inflationary cost of electricity for consumers and to the costs associated with the evident extreme consequences of climate change.

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