Years ago when I was in college studying economics and political science, I read a book which compared the relationship of the U.S. and Canada to that of an elephant and a mouse quietly sleeping next to each other. Fortunately, history has shown that for hundreds of years and the longest border between two nations in the world, these two countries have peacefully and beneficially thrived together. They have been allies in two world wars, Korea, and more recently in Afghanistan. Economically, both countries for several decades have supported each other by integrating much of the North American market, including those sectors such as energy and manufacturing. Despite what the Trump administration expounds, Canadian and American consumers alike have benefited from free trade and tourism between both countries. They also share a common labour force, with Canadians working in the U.S. and Americans working in Canada. Indeed, several of my university profs were American and greatly welcomed for their expertise and studies in various fields. Importantly, since World War II and the advent of the Cold War involving the then Soviet Union, both countries have devoted military resources to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) founded in 1955.
Now, we are in a trade war with ultimatums by the Trump administration continuously been thrown at Canadian negotiators. The problem is that a number of U.S. issues raised are direct attacks on the sovereignty of Canada as a nation. It now unfortunately appears that the position of both governments has become a test of will, with neither side willing to budge at this time. Certain issues raised touch directly on elements of Canadian culture, and in particular the country’s second official language, French. Moreover, there is little need to discuss the nature of tariff reciprocity as it is aptly covered by both U.S. and Canadian media. Indeed, unlike the negotiations in the past dealing with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the more recent Canada, Mexico and U.S. Agreement (CUSMA), there is much more American coverage of the current trade negotiations then ever before. If anything, Trump’s heated assertions and accusations have raised the temperature quite a bit.
What now is interesting is that there are some who believe that Prime Minister Mark Carney may be testing whether defiance is a viable strategy against Trump. This is why a number of other countries are closely paying attention to this trade dispute. Indeed, as the New York Times recently noted: World leaders and domestic institutions are, in some cases at least, showing less willingness to submit to Mr. Trump’s will. European leaders have refused to join his war with Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel flatly rejected his Gaza plan. Gulf Arab states forced him to abandon plans to charge a shipping toll in the Strait of Hormuz. The Times goes on to suggest that while the president remains the most dominant figure in the world, other leaders and institutions are pushing back more vigorously than at the beginning of his second term. Most notably, Spain, Italy, the U.K.
and Denmark have pushed back against a number of U.S. foreign policy initiatives.
Although the U.S. is obviously the elephant in the room, it might not want to escalate the trade war in light of becoming another inflation-related ingredient for both Americans and Canadians. It would appear that the president no longer has a problem with the reduction in affordability for Americans and the harm to American businesses that export to Canada. After all, Canada is still America’s biggest trade partner bar any others. Insulting Canadians and questioning Canada’s sovereignty is a non-starter! As shown in the past, Canada has been known to be the mouse that roared, especially when its back is to the wall. Canadians and Americans have always gotten along despite the rare disagreement, such as over the wars in Vietnam and Iraq. Travel between the two countries has always been important, given that we have so much in common and a great deal of respect for each other. Why an American president would want to deal so much hurt on his best neighbour is hard to explain? Time will tell whether the elephant will still want to choose to crush the mouse.
FROLITICKS 