FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Nov 19

Issues Surrounding Remote Working From Home Continue To Surface

by bcurry

Back at the start of the 2000s, telework or remote work was in its infancy.  One American 2010 report about telework within the federal government noted that only 8.67 percent of the total eligible federal workforce teleworked in 2008.  In 2010, legislation was signed by President Obama that requires federal agencies to develop policies that allow eligible employees to work remotely and to include telecommuting options in emergency contingency plans. Several government positions — including law enforcement officers, park rangers, lab technicians, medical doctors and nurses — are exempt because of the nature of the jobs.  By 2011, a report by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management indicated that 32 percent of federal employees were teleworking. 

A 2020 study by Statistics Canada noted that approximately 4 in 10 (39%) Canadian workers are in jobs that can plausibly be carried out from home.  The corresponding estimate for the United States is 37%.  Then came the pandemic which further accelerated the move to telework or so-called hybrid work where employees are required to come to the workplace a certain number of days each week.  Physical distancing measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a large number of Canadians and Americans working from home, many for the first time.  This sudden transition in how the economy is operating raises questions about how many jobs can reasonably be performed from home.

While governments led the way during the pandemic, private sector corporations also needed to examine their alternative working arrangements, leading as well to a significant increase in telework and hybrid work weeks.  Subsequently, there have been further studies about the impact on productivity, office space and physical location costs, employee morale, work-life balance, attrition rates, commuting times, etc., etc.  More recent studies this past year have found that remote work and hybrid work arrangements appear not to have any detrimental impact on productivity, and in some cases may actually increase productivity.  In certain cases, employers preferred the hybrid model as a means to ensuring the orientation of new employees, mentoring opportunities and simply facilitating interaction between employees and supervisors in the workplace.  In today’s tight labour force environment, some employers have promoted the possibility of remote work and hybrid arrangements as a means to attract and retain workers.

However, the growth of these alternative arrangements, which are here to stay, has resulted in major impacts on urban centers where many employers are located, especially in the downtown core.  Businesses that serviced employees while at work have seen significant declines in demand for their services in the core.  Public transit in some communities has also seen significant declines in ridership, as fewer people are commuting to work.  Those who decided to live outside the core because it was less costly in terms of housing will more than likely prefer to continue their alternative work arrangements.  Female employees in particular have been affected as they tend to work in jobs where telework can be accommodated.

All in all, there has been a major impact on the world of modern work which both the public and private sectors will have to adjust to.  What this means for the workforce has to still be further studied.  There is little doubt that employers will be experimenting with various ways in which to better accommodate their needs and those of there employees.  With the current shortages of skilled labour in both countries, they will have little choice but to adapt.

Reducing overheads, improving customer satisfaction, increasing productivity and staff retention are the core business benefits that stem from alternative working arrangements such as telework.  Furthermore, governments and firms are also starting to recognise that their environmental responsibilities can also be better addressed, with teleworking helping to decrease the ever burgeoning congestion problems and cut carbon emissions.  Everyone is affected, whether you’re an employer, employee, customer or community leader.  Remote working is here to stay in one form or another.

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Nov 13

Environmental Groups Cut Programs as Funding Shifts to Climate Change

by bcurry

When it comes to non-profit environmental groups, many of us are familiar with Greenpeace because of its activist actions from time to time which capture the attention of mainstream media and the authorities.  However, in both Canada and the U.S., there are numerous other lesser known groups that have concentrated on more specific environmental issues.  For example, in the U.S. you have such groups as the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), The Sierra Club, Defenders of Wildlife, the Environmental Working Group, the ClimateWorks Foundation and the Union of Concerned Scientists.  For a long time, such groups focused on particular environmental issues such as nuclear power safety, environmental toxins, and nearly extinct wildlife or threatened species in North America.  However, in recent years there has been a significant shift in donor contributions to nonprofits fighting climate change, leaving some of the both nations’ biggest environmental organizations facing critical budgetary shortfalls in existing programs.

According to a survey released in September by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, global spending to fight climate change by environmental groups and other nonprofits reached $8 billion (U.S.) in 2021, most of it in the U.S. and Canada.  Reportedly, leaders of some legacy environmental groups now largely agree that climate change, given its wide range of increasing global effects, is the top priority.  Since these organizations depend extensively on funding contributions from different sources, including from some of the world’s richest individuals, they have had to realign their goals to reflect policies and practices designed to tackle specific concerns around climate change.  This also means increasing support for government and industry initiatives promoting green technologies, including those related to solar, wind and thermo energy projects.  Even nuclear energy appears to be making a comeback as an additional means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  For example, the NRDC is eliminating its longstanding program promoting nuclear safety and cleanup as its donors focus on the climate crisis.

Facing unsustainable budget deficits, some of the largest non-profit environmental organizations are being forced to announce layoffs among their staffs.  This will result in the lost of a good deal of environmental expertise and program support for some time to come.  In addition, younger donors now tend to increasingly support those initiatives targeting climate change.  After all, younger people really view that climate change is the most immediate challenge affecting their lives in so many ways. 

The shift in priorities is also reflected in government policy, with climate change winning the lion’s share of some agencies’ budget increases. The number one strategic goal among declared priorities in the U.S. Environment Protection Agency’s list of seven priorities in its five-year strategic plan is to tackle the “Climate Crisis”.  The use of the term “crisis” is an important recognition of our need to focus on climate change sooner rather than later.  Interestingly in Canada, formally known as Environment Canada, the department’s name was recently changed to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).  ECCC is the now the department of the Government of Canada responsible for coordinating environmental policies and programs, as well as preserving and enhancing the natural environment and renewable resources.

Environmental groups, like governments, have no choice but to adapt their policies aimed at tackling the consequences of climate change, both short-term and long-term.  There is only so much donor funding available in both countries, and failure to adapt could result in their eventual demise.  Somehow, marketing of existing programs and policies have to be reoriented to tie into climate change issues in some way.  No organization is immune from the current shifts in peoples’ priorities in the environmental field.  Unfortunately, failure to effectively adapt could eventually mean their very extinction.

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Nov 5

What Is The Value Of Teaching “Humanities” In Our Universities?

by bcurry

For the last two decades there has been a lot written about the value of a post-secondary degree in the “humanities”.  Now, the debate has once again risen in the U.S. and Canada as a number of universities, facing budgetary declines, appear to have taken steps of cutting back or even eliminating certain humanities programs.  Part of the reason is that students increasingly are fleeing to majors more closely aligned to employment, with degrees in business and commerce being the most popular.  Let’s face it, most universities love to market career oriented disciplines.  The humanities on the other hand normally covers such programs as French, Spanish and German, American or Canadian studies, art history, classical studies, philosophy and religious studies.  In the past, such disciplines had been the bread and butter for so-called “liberal arts” colleges.

There have been plenty of arguments given for maintaining humanities programs, particularly when it comes to their ability to evoke critical thinking.  Some would argue that if you want simply to work towards a career, go to MIT or a community college specializing in employment-oriented foundations.  Camille Paglia, a social critic and professor of Humanities and Media Studies at University of the Arts in Philadelphia, was quoted in 2010 as to the value of the contemporary social science course.  Paglia argued at the time that the current trend toward hyper-focused humanities courses (Women’s Studies, African-American Studies, etc.) has eroded the overall purpose of higher education, which she noted is to provide a “broad overview and foundation for overall learning.”

In addition, it’s no secret that most universities tend to lean left, especially when it comes to teaching the humanities and social sciences.  For this reason, there has been a backlash against any form of suspected “ideology” driven teaching.  Such concerns of course don’t normally exist among business and law faculties, considered as safe havens from “leftist” ideologies as they tend to stress support for the “status quo”. 

There is little doubt that in today’s economy and labour market, students are increasingly considering more career-oriented programs in both Canada and the U.S.  After all, the high cost incurred toward certain degrees is perceived as eventually leading to good-paying jobs. Two decades ago, scholars were still confident that the availability of liberal arts would still be there in the future.  Now there are those who believe that the liberal arts, once fairly robust, are seeing a more imminent decline.  The situation certainly leads one to question the role of universities as institutions of higher learning and preserving our society’s historical, cultural and linguistic attributes.

In studying the humanities, one is given an opportunity to reflect on the evolution of a society and where it may or may not be going.  There is a real need to question so many aspects of modern society as it has evolved.  For this reason, the sheer joy of learning has to be instilled in tomorrow’s leaders, keeping an open mind to all the possibilities.  One key is the ability to quickly react to changing times and to be flexible in accepting the possibility of multiple answers and thinking outside the box.  Governments and corporations need to have people equipped in critical thinking so as to provide different ways of thinking about the issues of the day, be they related to climate change or social-economic policies.  It also helps to know how we got here!

Where are the writers and thinkers of the future coming from, if not from universities and the humanities?  Can we really simply leave our future to the engineers, programmers, lawyers and business leaders?  Back in 2010, University of Chicago philosopher Martha Nussbaum released her book Not for profit: Why Democracy needs the Humanities.  I would suggest that anyone interested in this issue take the time to read her book, especially since our democracies appear to be constantly under attack by oligarchs and promoters of authoritarian rule. 

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Oct 22

The Power of the American Military Industrial Complex Continues to Grow

by bcurry

Lester B. Pearson, a former Canadian Prime Minister, was quoted in 1955: “The grim fact is that we prepare for war like precocious giants, and for peace like retarded pygmies.”  As you may know or not know, as a diplomat Pearson was largely responsible for encouraging the formation of the League of Nations after World War II, which in turn became the United Nations.

Former U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned in 1953: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”  As a former general during World War II, Eisenhower clearly understood the power of the military industrial complex in the States, a power that has continued to grow from this day forward.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest arms exporter.  As of last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the U.S. controlled an estimated 45 percent of the world’s weapons exports.  This is nearly five times more than any other nation and its highest level since the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union.  That is up from 30 percent a decade ago.

The current conflict between Israel and Hamas is just the latest impetus behind a boom in international arms sales that is bolstering profits and weapons-making capacity among American suppliers, especially with respect to Israel’s military.  The U.S. already provides Israel with more than $3 billion in military assistance every year, and Congress is now apparently being asked to increase funding to Israel to the tune of $10 billion in emergency aid due to the conflict.

Even before Israel responded to the deadly Hamas attack, the combination of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the perception of a rising threat from China was spurring a global rush to purchase fighter planes, missiles, tanks, artillery, munitions and other lethal equipment.  Other countries such as Turkey and South Korea are also increasing their military equipment exports, giving purchasers more options at a time when production shortfalls in the U.S. mean it can take years for orders to be filled.  During the Biden administration countries such as Poland, Saudi Arabia, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Japan have signed military equipment deals with the U.S.  Even some small Pacific island nations have done the same. Taiwan alone has a backlog of American weapons orders worth as much as $19 billion.  Canada recently signed an agreement with Lockheed, the world’s largest military contractor, to purchase F-35 fighter jets worth billions of dollars.

Economically, there is little doubt that foreign-based wars can stimulate certain sectors of a country’s economy.  One only has to recall the impact of the Vietnam and Iraq wars to witness the role of American military hardware providers who benefited from the billions of dollars spent in support of American actions in both countries.  Unfortunately, thousands of American lives were loss and thousands more were injured in these two nebulous conflicts.  Military equipment is being sold to all sorts of regimes, several non-democratic, simply to garner support for American foreign policy initiatives in their respective region.

Sadly, there are those who note that the Pentagon and the State Department are continuing to work to find ways to accelerate approval of foreign military sales to keep up with the rising global demand.  The industry has declared that the main bottleneck remains manufacturing capacity, requiring an industrial base capable of meeting these requirements.  Yes, there will always be those that argue if the U.S. industry doesn’t fulfill such perceived needs, then other countries will simply step in to do so.  Regrettably, this appears to be a winnable argument in Congress, with the military industrial complex taking full advantage at the expense of American taxpayers since it is often combined with foreign aid and foreign policy.

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Oct 15

Overriding Canadian Human Rights Legislation Via Use of Notwithstanding Clause 

by bcurry

Section 33 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms is part of the revised Constitution of Canada created back in 1982.  It is commonly known as the “notwithstanding clause”, sometimes referred to as the override power and was included at the time so as to have the majority of provinces agree to the new constitution.  The clause allows Canada’s Parliament or provincial legislatures to temporarily override certain sections of the Charter when introducing new legislation.  It is unique among the constitutions of democratic countries and gives federal and provincial governments the ability to ignore most of the constitutional rights of Canadians other than the right to vote, the seating of legislatures and the House of Commons, mobility rights and language rights.  One extraordinary provision is that no explanation for such a move is required.  The U.S, Constitution gives no such powers to the states, but it does authorize Congress to remove jurisdiction from the federal courts.  However, not since World War II has Congress mustered the requisite majority to do so.

For much of our new constitution’s history, it was rarely used by provinces (the federal government has never invoked it) and was politically regarded as an option of last resort.  However, the notwithstanding clause has since been used by Alberta in 2000, and Quebec in 2001 and 2005.  In addition, most Canadian provinces, including Quebec and Alberta, have their own human rights Act, which protects people in a province from discrimination in certain areas, such as employment, accommodation, and access to services, based on specified grounds (‘protected characteristics’).  Recently in 2022, Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford of Ontario threatened to invoke the clause to take the right to strike from teachers but subsequently abandoned his plan due to political pressures and the threat of future court challenges.

More recently, invocation of the notwithstanding clause by provinces has to do with the introduction of so-called “parental rights” legislation, similar to that found in Florida and some southern U.S. states’.  Such laws primarily govern the use the preferred names and genders of schoolchildren.  In June of this year, the premier of New Brunswick, Blaine Higgs, introduced legislation which requires teachers to get the permission of a child’s parents if the child is under the age of 16.  Now the issue has surfaced again in Saskatchewan.  Following the lead of Mr. Higgs, Premier Scott Moe recently recalled his province’s legislature to introduce a similar bill.  If passed, it will mandate parents’ consent for a number of things including the use by any pupil under 16 of a new gender-related preferred name or gender identity at school.

One expert observer noted that provinces tend to use the notwithstanding clause to feed their base the idea that we’ve gone too far in human rights and that the courts have been leading us in the wrong way.  The belief is that elected officials need to capture back their power.  It’s also suggested that its use has resulted in more “wedge politics.”  Remember that introducing such legislation will take away the individual rights of those directly affected, such as in the above cases involving the rights of a child.  Psychiatrists and social workers have noted that there are potential harmful consequences of forcing teachers to contact parents regarding such matters, especially where the child may fear a hostile reaction by their parents to gender-related matters.  Where once before a child could turn in confidence to a teacher or school counsellor for information and assistance, the child may now be much more hesitant to do so.  The detrimental result may be the potential emergence of social and mental health issues.

It has been suggested that in some cases the courts might ultimately end the ability of premiers and prime ministers to preemptively set the constitution aside when it comes to human rights legislation.  This was the most recent case in Ontario over the right to strike by teachers.  Never-the-less, the concern over the use of the Charter’s withstanding clause by provinces should remain a serious concern among Canadians.  After all, who’s next to have their individual rights taken away by a government?  Where does it all end?  The continuing use of this provision will ultimately water down those protections afforded to us under both federal and provincial human rights laws.

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Oct 6

Speakers of U.S. House of Representatives and Canada’s House of Commons Resign

by bcurry

Two interesting events happened in the last couple of weeks.  Both speakers of a Congressional and a Parliamentary body were forced to resign in unprecedented ways. 

On September 26th, Anthony Rota stepped down as House of Commons Speaker after inviting a former Ukrainian soldier who fought in a Nazi division to Canada’s Parliament during the recent visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who delivered an address in the House of Commons.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it clear that the Speaker’s mistake was deeply embarrassing for the House, Canada and the Ukraine.  Rota, a Liberal Party Member of Parliament, was pressured by his party and members of the opposition to immediately resign, something very rare in Canada’s parliamentary history.

In the U.S., the House of Representatives voted on October 3rd to oust Kevin McCarthy, a, a vivid rebuke of his leadership and an escalation of the civil strife within the Republican Party.  The so-called band of eight Republicans who rejected McCarthy, most of whom are Republican Party member, as Speaker of the House.  It was the first such removal in American history members of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, were opposed by 210 of their fellow GOP representatives, all of whom voted to keep the Speaker in place.  McCarthy had aligned with the Democrats in the House to pass legislation allowing the government to continue operating until next November, thus preventing an imminent shutdown of federal government services and much of its employee compensation.  What is particularly disconcerting is the current provision which allows any one Representative to call a vote in order to replace a sitting Speaker, as was done in this case by Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida.

In the case of the Canadian Parliament, the Speaker’s resignation was unfortunate but was quickly resolved through the quick selection and appointment this week by House members of a new Speaker, one Greg Fergus who became Canada’s first Black Canadian Speaker of the House of Commons.  His independent role as Speaker, although he is a Liberal Party Member of Parliament, is to maintain order in the House and direct the daily operations of his office.

On the other hand, the House of Representatives has yet to select a new Speaker from the majority Republican Party.  The Speaker’s removal has only deepened the body’s dysfunction, leaving the House rudderless so-to-speak, and with no clear path to effective leadership.  Although a government shutdown was narrowly avoided over the past weekend, another looms next month.  Future assistance to Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion is also at stake.  McCarthy has declared that he will not run again for the position and has not endorsed a would-be successor, leaving Republicans to scramble to find a viable candidate.  There are a lot of concerns among experts about the actions of the fringe elements of both parties, and their potential negative impact on the House functioning and the possibility for compromise agreements as to budgets and the functioning of the state.  They have pointed to the troubled tenures of previous Republican speakers of the House such as John A. Boehner and Paul D. Ryan, both of whom struggled with stiff resistance from their right flank.  Indeed, a fundamental role of the House Speaker is to attempt to pursue conciliatory measures between the two parties through negotiations and on-going discussions.  Unfortunately, it appears that the parties themselves have grown weaker because they are increasingly controlled by those on the fringes, as exemplified in this case.  Moderates in both parties have expressed their concerns, but apparently to no avail. 

The increasing failure of Congress to function in an orderly fashion and to represent the interests of all Americans has placed democracy in a dangerous situation.  The on-going haphazard saga of the annual Congressional budgetary review and votes is clearly unworkable under these circumstances.  The sooner that the House can select a new Speaker, the sooner the House can hopefully get back to democratic governance.  Let’s hope for the sake of all Americans and democracy that this will happen in a quick and sensible manner!

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Oct 2

Let’s Go To Live On The Moon or Mars.  Why Don’t We?

by bcurry

Given the progression and severe consequences of climate change over the last decade in particular, there are some scientists who believe that the Earth could become unliveable before the end of this century.  As of today, the Earth’s total population is estimated at around 8.1 billion people.  For whatever reason, there are those who are already talking about and planning for the possible colonization of the Moon or Mars in the near future.

Indeed, one company is looking to having people living on the Moon as early as 2040.  Currently, flights to the Moon by several countries, including India, Russia and China have taken place.  Apparently, NASA’s planned Artemis missions will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon in November 2024, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before.  Artemis will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon.  Then, they will use what they learn on and around the Moon to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars.  They plan to build an Artemis Base Camp on the surface and the Gateway in lunar orbit.  These elements will allow our robots and astronauts to explore more and conduct more science than ever before.  NASA will return to the Moon robotically beginning next year, send astronauts to the surface within four years, and build a long-term presence on the Moon by the end of the decade.

A raft of commercial lunar missions are taking off in 2023.  The first lander is set to touch down this month, signalling a new era for Moon science and exploration.  NASA will blast a 3-D printer up to the Moon and then build structures, layer by additive layer, out of a specialized lunar concrete created from the rock chips, mineral fragments and dust that sits on the top layer of the moon’s cratered surface and billows in poisonous clouds whenever disturbed.  The Moon shot of a plan has been made possible through new technology and partnerships with universities and private companies.  For example, the School of Architecture at Texas A&M University is working closely with NASA to develop a construction system that can be operated by robots in space.  Some of the 3-D technology involved has already been used successfully to build homes on Earth.  However, doing the same in space is a much more difficult endeavour.  NASA is also working with a handful of universities and private companies to create prototypes for space furniture and interior design.

In addition, from a commercial point of view, there are mining companies interested in potential sources of minerals on the moon.  The moon represents a potentially significant cache of untapped resources, and several nations will undoubtedly be interested in a stake.  India last month landed a spacecraft on the Moon, earning the distinction of the first nation to ever land near the southern polar region, where the most precious of resources — water — is believed to be lying in wait.

The next destination of course would be Mars, already having been explored by robotic surface vehicles.  The Moon is a practical spot for a layover, as NASA believes that the water on the lunar surface could be converted to rocket fuel for a future trip to Mars.  There have already been efforts to vet potential persons interested in helping to colonnade the red planet.  Another company would like to build and sell condos on Mars — an unlikely scenario.  I wonder how much those would cost!

There are those that would argue that we should first apply all of our scientific and technological resources to solving the current environmental problems on earth.  There is no doubt that putting humans on the Moon or on Mars is a very costly endeavour.  The fact is that it will take decades to accomplish what countries want to do in space.  For those of the billions of us left on planet Earth, we will just have to wait and endure. 

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Sep 23

Dispute Between Canada and India Greatly Affects U.S. As Well

by bcurry

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said on Monday that “agents of the government of India” had carried out the assassination of a Sikh community leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar (a Canadian citizen), in British Columbia earlier this June.  This of course was an explosive allegation that has further soured relations between the two nations.  India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the accusation “absurd.” The two leaders met briefly at the Group of 20 summit meeting in India earlier this month..  Trudeau stated last week in Parliament that Canada had credible information that “agents of the government of India” had carried out the assassination of Nijjar.  A formal investigation is on-going.  At the summit meeting, Trudeau met briefly with Modi and raised the matter with him.  Mr. Modi “completely rejected” the allegations.

Since then, Canada was forced to cancel a scheduled trade mission to India and postponed a possible trade agreement between the two countries which had been negotiated for over a year. 

In turn, the Indian government temporarily blocked the issuance of visas to Canadians wishing to visit India.  This will affect Canadians of Indian descent, Indian students studying in Canada and family members visiting in Canada.  Both countries expelled diplomats from their respective embassies.  India for some time has also accused Canada of providing shelter to “Khalistani terrorists and extremists” who threaten India’s security.  Khalistan is what Sikh separatists call the independent state they seek to create in India.

The situation regarding the Sikh community is an important one given that Canada is now home to the largest Sikh population outside India, with about 770,000 people who reported Sikhism as their religion in a 2021 census.  Sikhs hold a prominent place in Canadian society and politics.  In the federal government, the head of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, is Sikh.

The current diplomatic dispute places President Biden in a tough and very sensitive place.  On the one hand, he has to recognize Canada’s right to defend its sovereignty.  After all, the U.S. would do the same under similar circumstances where American citizens are attacked in their country by foreign agents.  However, Biden is being forced to maintain a delicate balance between the interests of two democratic allies.  The White House has declared that it is waiting for the formal investigation to conclude before weighing in, but it pushed back on criticism that the U.S. is trying to avoid antagonizing India because of its important strategic role.  As reported by the Washington Post, India is among the world’s most populous countries, occupies a strategic location in the Asian subcontinent — notably opposite to China — and is home to a growing technology sector. The U.S. and India recently established a high-level initiative on defence and emerging technologies that will, among other things, promote joint production of defence equipment, including military jet engines, long-range artillery and armoured infantry vehicles.  However, the relationship is complicated by India’s poor record on domestic human rights, its reliance on discounted Russian oil and its neutral position vis-à-vis the Russian-Ukraine war.  Biden has raised the issue of Modi’s crackdown on dissent and his persecution of religious minorities in India.  Biden is asking both Canada and India to cooperate in the incident’s formal investigation in order to end the dispute as soon as possible. 

Those perceptions of peaceful Sikh advocacy for independence in India faced a jolt in 1985, when a bomb went off on an Air India flight from Canada to India via Britain.  The explosion off the coast of Ireland killed the 329 people, including several Canadians, on board.  An extremist, a Sikh immigrant, was convicted in connection with the bombing, which came at a time of heightened tensions between the Sikh community and the Indian government.  As in the U.S., Canada will always condemn any extremist activity that results in violence in Canada or elsewhere.  However, freedom of expression and freedom of religion are deeply entrenched in the constitutions of both countries and are fiercely protected.

Hopefully, both Canada and India, with their many other mutual interests, can resolve their differences through the promotion of cooperation in investigating the above incident.

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Sep 17

Several American Unions Are Striking Partly Over Technological Change

by bcurry

As one union leader pointed out, we are in a new industrial revolution spurred on by advances in high tech, including in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).

Just this past week, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union in the U.S. went on strike, targeting strikes in three locations against the big three auto makers: General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Jeep and Ram.  Now, while the strike by the UAW is about the usual contract items such as wages and benefits, there is one additional item — the preservation of union jobs as they ramp up electric vehicle manufacturing and as the industry shifts to batteries.  Because they have fewer parts, electric cars can be made with fewer workers than gasoline vehicles.  Plants that make mufflers, catalytic converters, fuel injectors and other components that electric cars don’t need will have to be overhauled or shut down.

In another instance, back in the spring, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.  Again, the main issues are related to fair compensation.  Shortly after, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) went on strike in July, joining the WGA.  This is the first time that both the WGA and SAG have been on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers at the same time since 1960.  Again, technological changes are among the issues at hand for both groups, including changes to the entertainment environment due to streaming and the potential use of AI in screen productions and script writing.

Madeline Janis, executive director of Jobs to Move America, an advocacy group that works closely with the U.A.W. and other unions, noted: “The U.A.W. is really taking a stand for communities across the country to make sure this transition benefits everybody.”  Declaring this as the dawn of another industrial revolution, she highlights that the strike is probably the first of many to come in sectors where unions are faced with significant technological changes, including in mainstream media as regards journalism, the trucking industry with respect to self-driving vehicles, etc., etc.  In the past, robotics and automation dominated many of the unions’ concerns.  Now, a whole new era has begun.  One has to believe that workers are ready to take a firm stand, as well as employers who are faced with stift competition, often from non-unionized companies.  As a result, such strikes could be long and nasty.

There is little that governments can do to prevent the prolongation of strikes during the current environment, especially when it comes to technological changes driven by global market forces.  We have yet to see the full impact of AI on employment and the workplace as it is still in its infancy stages.  There are a lot of difficult questions that need to be asked.  As in the past with respect to technological change, the union movement will be among the first to seek out the answers.  For this reason, I look forward to witnessing and analyzing the outcomes of these confrontations.

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Sep 7

What’s Going On With All These Pollsters?

by bcurry

Pick up any newspaper today or read news articles online, and you can’t avoid seeing the most recent polls concerning the U.S. presidential primaries or the standings of federal political parties and their leaders in Canada.  The most interesting polls of course have to do with the potential impact of the recent indictments against former President Donald Trump.

However, support for Trump, may obscure a still varied Republican electorate. To better understand the party today, one pollster split Republican and Republican-leaning voters into groups, based on the results of its Times/Siena poll. The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump.  The results depict a Republican coalition that consists of different six groups.  Their support for Trump varies accordingly.

According to a poll commissioned by POLITICO Magazine and conducted by Ipsos in June, roughly half of the country believes that Trump committed the crimes alleged against him.  What should happen to Trump if he gets convicted?  The poll’s results show that forty-three percent said he should go to prison, but most were willing to spare him jail time.  Nearly a quarter of respondents said that Trump should incur no punishment at all (22 percent), while 18 percent said he should receive probation and another 17 percent said he should face only a financial penalty.  Interestingly, roughly one-third of respondents said that they are not particularly familiar with the allegations in the indictment cases.

Nationally, recent polls indicate that support for President Biden and Trump is about evenly split.  However, analysts note that should Trump win the Republican primaries, he would most likely loose to Biden. This despite voter concerns over Biden’s age and his low approval ratings.

In Canada, the political drama is far less evident than in the U.S.  Recent polls show that the current leader of the federal Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has pulled ahead of Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.  Moreover, an Ipsos poll in December 2022 indicated that nearly half of Canadians want there to be a federal election in 2023, although the official deadline for the next federal election is 2025.  In addition, the poll indicated that, after over eight years in office, a slim majority of those polled are hoping one politician won’t be running in the next election: Prime Minister Trudeau.  Fifty-four percent of those polled said Trudeau should step down as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2023, although just 27 percent said they actually believe he’ll do so.  The Prime Minister’s approval rating has been coming down when compared to Poilievre’s.  However, with an election still potentially two years away, anything can happen as indicated by recent polls, and much will depend on the regional distribution of votes.

Polls are powerful – they can influence emotions and shape political fortunes. They can be used to drum up support for campaigns and reveal how closely aligned (or far apart) the general public is on consequential presidential or prime ministerial policies.  Recent national elections have reminded us how problematic it is when we think of polls as forecasts of the future rather than a glimpse at where people stand at a given moment in time.  Also, not all polls include a margin of error, including non-probability polls such as those you can opt into online.  According to Pew Research Center, participants for these polls self-select, or opt in, and there is a risk that “these samples will not resemble the larger population”.

Polling is a huge industry.  All political parties and many third-parties, including media sources, use polls to get an idea where the voters stand on certain issues and how much support is out there for parties’ platforms.  Past history has shown that the closer one gets to an election date, the more accurate certain polling can begun.  Unfortunately, polls released just prior to that date can potentially influence the way in which certain voters, especially the undecideds, may consider voting.  After all, everyone prefers to support a potential winner, notably if they are voting as independents.  Prior to the next American and Canadian elections, I’d be closely watching the potential impact of polling and whether the results reflect the final outcome of the election.

Canada Donald Trump Federal Election Presidential Election 2024 Republican Party U.S. Primaries US US Politics

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