FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

This Canada Day, We Stand On Guard For Thee

We celebrate July 1st in recognition of the 150 years since the formation of the country called Canada. The U.S. of course celebrates July 4th in recognition of its independence day.  The two countries have a lot in common, including the longest unguarded border in the world.  We fought two World Wars and the Korean War together.  Canadian troops served in Afghanistan. Canada and the U.S. formed the continental defence body called the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). We share a common language “English”, although Canada also has “French” as a second official language.  Many Americans and Canadians work and play in each other’s countries.  Canada is America’s single largest trade partner and have a free trade arrangement in place, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

However, since the emergence of President Donald Trump’s administration, the relationship between our two countries has seriously deteriorated to having now become the worst in decades. The relationship has not only soured because of the current re-negotiations respecting NAFTA and recent U.S. tariffs placed on Canadian steel and aluminum products, but because of Trump’s continuing personal attacks on Canadians, including our Prime Minister.  These and other attacks on our European and Latin American allies have further aggravated world tensions, both economic and political.  Trump’s protectionist and ‘America First’ policies may play well among his base in the U.S., but it is unravelling decades of international cooperation.

There are no winners in this current atmosphere of constant turmoil and instability, much of which is reflected in the stock markets in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Europe and China. Should the trade war continue, many experts predict that the world could be in for another major global recession.  Here in Canada, businesses, workers and consumers are preparing for the worst. As Canada now has an integrated economy with the U.S., industries like the automotive sector will suffer on both sides of the border in the advent of the imposition of further tariffs. Canadians perceive the imposition of American tariffs as a deliberate attack on the Canadian economy and have responded accordingly with new tariffs on a wide range of American products.  Indeed, there are now national ‘Buy Canadian’ campaigns aimed at promoting Canadian brands over American brands.  Numerous Canadians have already decided not to vacation south of the border, and mutual tourism will suffer.

Jobs will be lost on both sides of the border, but I’m certain that the economic impact will be worst for Canada as a trading nation. The results will be an increase in Canadian opposition to the Trump regime and a growing frustration with its unfair policies.  After all, Americans are supposed to be our friends and a good neighbour.  We have never taken this for granted.  However, Canadians are a proud people and will resist any such bullying tactics by external sources, no matter how difficult conditions may become.  The question then becomes how long these conditions will continue and how long it will take to mend fences in the future?  Your guess is as good as mine.  In the meantime, as Canadians we will stand on guard for thee.  Happy Canada Day! Oh yeah, and hopefully a happy Fourth of July!

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All Is Not Well in Washington, D.C.

It would appear that the U.S. capitol is suffering from something we could call “Trumpcolic”. The symptoms are painful and exhibit a continuous flow of wind from the intestines and bowel movements.  The smell alone can be dreadful.  This malady has affected Republicans on the Hill in particular, leaving them scurrying about in search of some medicinal relief, especially since praying has not offered any comfort.  While the cause of this epidemic is known, there appears to be no clear remedy at this time.  It’s difficult to treat since the symptoms are never consistent and change almost on a daily basis.  Indeed, the cure may be almost as bad as the disease itself.

Explanations keep emerging from the White House, but frequently are contradictory in nature. Given its almost daily instability, providing a clear prognosis has become increasingly difficult.  What is worst, the health of an entire nation is at stake!  American and foreign experts have thrown up their arms in frustration.  They have seen many a period of incontinence in the past, but nothing like this.

There are already signs that this disease has spread beyond the capitol’s boundaries. The Democrats are pushing to find a cure in the fall, while the Republicans are struggling to contain any further outbreak.  A sense of dread can be felt in all four corners of the country.  Many Americans have taken to searching out some form of immunization to protect themselves from this scourge.  Others remain convinced that the disease is fake and simply a fabrication of the established media.

Never in the history of the country have so many been challenged by such an outbreak. Despite expert opinion, no one appears to know who is to be believed anymore.  Even more important, Trumpcolic has now spread to other countries.  This has forced these countries to ally themselves in order to prevent a world-wide epidemic.  However, it may be too late because the symptoms have begun to appear in Italy, Germany, Austria, and Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, the stench is becoming that much stronger.

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How Many Workers Will Be Forced to Delay Their Retirement?

A recent Washington Post article by Thomas Heath had an interesting title: “Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan”. Indeed, he went on to note that by retiring too early you risk outliving your money, and staying at the desk too long you might miss out on life. How true.  The number of older workers (65 and up), mostly so-called boomers, have delayed their retirement for differing reasons over the last decade.  Bloomberg News reported that almost 19 percent of Americans 65 or older were working at least part-time in the second quarter of 2017. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects this trend to continue.  The BLS estimates that by 2024, 36 percent of 65- to 69-year-olds will be active participants in the labor market. That’s apparently up from just 22 percent in 1994. The same can be said for older Canadian workers.

A good part of the problem lies in the fact that many workers no longer have access to a private pension plan, particularly a ‘defined benefit pension plan’. In the U.S., according to a 2016 analysis by Willis Towers Watson P.L.C., the number of defined benefit pension plans sponsored by the nation’s largest corporations (Fortune 500) continues to fall. Just 99, or about 20% of these companies offered a defined benefit pension plan to new salaried employees in 2015, down from 104, or nearly 21% in 2014.  This represented a dramatic fall from a decade earlier in 2005, when 248, or just over 48% of Fortune 500 firms, offered the plans.  As per the same analysis, more of these firms are offering only defined contribution plans to new salaried employees, who will have to sort out their investments for future retirement on their own.

In addition, many boomers are not saving enough for retirement either through contributions to Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSP) in Canada and 401(k)s and IRAs in the U.S.  Indeed, in 2017, Forbes estimated that half of Americans were approaching retirement with no savings!  Instead, these workers appear to be relying on Social Security to finance their retirement.  Now, one needs to realize is that, for low-income Americans, Social Security may be enough.  However, will Social Security be enough to have a comfortable retirement?  Middle income Canadians face the same dilemma, especially those relying solely on the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security to finance their retirement.  Their standard of living will suffer as costs begin to outweigh benefits in retirement, especially since we are living longer.

For those older workers who choose to continue working past 65 for an acceptable variety of personal and bona fide reasons, we salute you, especially where your expertise and experience continue to be needed. For those older workers who have little or no choice financially but to continue working, we can only hope that you will not die at your workplace.  For the latter, the best advice that one can offer is to get your affairs in order, remain healthy and retire as soon as possible.  Otherwise, you might just miss out on life.

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President Trump’s Behaviour At The G7 Meeting In Canada Was Disrespectful To Host Leader

Justin Trudeau is the Prime Minister of the sovereign nation of Canada and as such deserves the normal respect given to any head of state. For the past four decades, Canada has been a recognized member of the G7 Group. This body is there to provide a valuable opportunity for the seven participating countries to discuss a number of important world issues, including trade.  Normally, at the end of each meeting a joint communiqué is issued highlighting the results of the discussions. However, although the U.S. delegation appeared to have endorsed the draft communiqué, the American President abruptly left the meeting refusing to sign off on the document. Instead, Trump launched a tirade against Prime Minister Trudeau calling him “dishonest and weak”.

Other leaders and delegates were surprised by Trump’s outburst, although not completely shocked given recent events. After all, some of these leaders have been disparaged by Trump’s statements in the past.  Some observers have labelled the tirade released by Trump and his advisors against the Canadian PM as a form of ‘bullying’.  Having placed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Canada has indicated that tariffs will be imposed on a number of American products exported to Canada.  In addition, Trump is not too happy with the negotiations surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which have been going slower than he would have liked.  Both Canada and Mexico believe that negotiations on a new agreement need to be thorough in order to achieve a fair and equitable result for all three nations. Given the complexity of some of the trade items, this process cannot be done over night.

President Trump needs to realize that the Prime Minister has the full backing of not only his government, but also the opposition members and Canadians in general. Unlike recent contradictory statements by Trump, the Canadian position on the NAFTA negotiations and on free trade in general has been consistent.  Indeed, the Canadian position reflects that of many of its European allies who have also been hit with American tariffs.  Regrettably, the U.S. protectionist situation leaves Canada, Mexico and the European Union with no other option but to retaliate in kind. No one wants to give in to a bully.  Unfortunately, workers and consumers in the U.S. and the other affected countries will ultimately suffer.

It’s time that Donald Trump realises that he is no longer part of a reality T.V. show. He is now on the world stage and needs to act in a respectful, informed and reflective manner.  Name calling and bullying have no place in diplomacy.  Years of cooperation and trust among nations are at stake.  Trump’s administration needs to be very careful as to whom it defames and attempts to discredit.  It’s one thing to launch a trade war and quite another to start diplomatic conflicts among one’s allies.  There could be grave consequences for the so-called leader of the free world.

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If Nothing Else, Enjoy the View at G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec

Just up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec, Canada, there is the lovely region of Charlevoix. Amid hills, lakes and rivers there exists parks and hiking trails, picturesque little villages and tons of nature.  From the shores, you can often see whales playing in the St. Lawrence River. This June 8th and 9th, the region will host the next G7 summit.  If you’re not already aware, the G7 consists of the U.S., Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. What’s particularly interesting this time, President Donald Trump, the so-called master negotiator, will be there after having just placed tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada, Mexico and Europe. Oh to be a fly on the wall at that meeting!

One has to remember that one of the goals of the G7 over the last four decades was to help coordinate trade and economic policies among these and other industrialized countries. The G7 has always been seen as a close-knit group having common interests.  This may all change at this summit.  None of the participants is happy with President Trump’s protectionist policies.  Indeed, some observers have described the new grouping as the “G6 plus one”, the U.S. being the one. The past goals of enhancing cooperation may be in real jeopardy, particularly when you have the American President publishing rambling tweets about the U.S. getting screwed by “stupid trade.” It’s obvious that Trump’s playing to his political core base back home, much to the chagrin of other Republicans and State governors who support “free trade” and have economically benefited from such support.

Moreover, the G7 has been somewhat effective because it had established a level of trust among its members. Now, Trump is straining those very bonds.  In addition, the President’s administration has not really gone after the real culprit in this story, China.  Instead, the President appears to be more concerned about his family’s financial interests in China and China’s role in the upcoming talks with North Korea. Although some will argue that the G7 as a body has done little to tackle certain economic and international trade issues, the fact is that at least it was there, along with the group of 20, to discuss emerging issues and perhaps avert damaging protectionist policies.

Let’s face it, I support free trade as benefiting all of us in one way or another. Indeed, I highlighted my views back in March in my blog entitled Does Trump Not Understand Fundamental Principles Behind Multi-lateral Trade?.  As for Canada, it has always had a close political and economic relationship with it’s southern neighbour.  Placing tariffs on certain products traded to the U.S. can only hurt that relationship.  Canadians are a proud people and take such actions as an affront to their country and its values, as appropriately expressed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  Such actions by this American administration will do nothing but harm the current negotiations around the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  Unfortunately, both American and Canadian workers and consumers will suffer from the most recent U.S.-imposed tariffs.  Charlevoix’s quiet ambience will most certainly be invaded by loud and angry voices.

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Is Trump Ready To Go To War With Iran and North Korea?

There appears to be a lot of saber-rattling in Washington nowadays! You have Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listing a set of demands aimed at Iran so that it would become everything but a puppet state of the U.S.  One has John Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, who is a well known hawk in and around the capital. A lot of the administration’s critics think that these two would rather skip with the diplomatic niceties and skip straight to military action.

Then we have the European allies, China and Russia who all signed on to the Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal, in 2015. What Pompeo and Trump fail to understand is that the deal was aimed primarily at limiting Iran’s nuclear program by placing restrictions on it and having International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors set up a system that allows the U.N. watchdog to inspect nuclear-related sites in Iran. It was never intended to influence Iran’s general regional policy issues which would have to done through other separate foreign policy initiatives. Of course, Israel never liked the nuclear deal, which did not directly stop Iran from testing or firing ballistic missiles, and persuaded the Trump administration to go it alone. By scrapping the deal, the U.S. will reimpose U.S. sanctions, further hurting the average Iranian. Iran’s government is resolved to resist the American demands, even at the eventual expense of its economy. An anti-American stance can only help the radicals obtain more control of Iran’s politics.

As for North Korea, Kim Jong Un is playing Trump like a fiddle. Anyone who knows anything about his regime, understands that he is not willing to give up his nuclear arsenal.  Signing any peace treaty would require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea, possibly with its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea. Kim also now sees how the U.S. treated the nuclear deal with Iran and will not trust the Americans with any similar deal for North Korea. Kim is also using the current military exercises by the U.S. and its allies in the region as an excuse to potentially pull out of the planned June meeting with Trump. Trump is now caught in an awkward situation where political promises were made and expectations were raised as to some form of eventual deal in the region.  The ball is now in Kim’s court.

All of this signifies that American foreign policy is in a mess. Other than moving toward military actions, show me a strategy that makes sense.  The complexities of foreign policy development have been left to overly simplistic approaches and negotiating tactics.  Even the influence of the most powerful nation on earth won’t be enough to rescue this situation from the heap of manure on which it’s built.  I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be working in the State Department these days.

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American Foreign Policy Led to a No-Win Outcome in the Middle East

When in college in the early seventies, I did a paper on the role of the Arab League. Among my findings was the fact that the League’s members could not agree on very much, not even how best to jointly deal with Israel. The Arab countries continued to do more bickering among themselves than working together to mutually resolve regional concerns.  The problem is worst even today.  The Middle East shudders from instability that stretches from Syria to Iraq to Yemen, spawning terrorist threats as well as threats to the legacy of American intervention in Iraq and Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab world. After the so-called Arab spring, a number of regimes from Libya to Egypt are less stable than before the movement.

As for the U.S., the Iraq occupation and subsequent attempt at democracy have proven to be a costly failure.  President Obama’s failure to topple Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, his inability to apply pressure for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, and the disappointing result of U.S.-led nuclear talks with Iran not leading to a rapprochement between the United States and Saudi Arabia’s main rival Iran, all continue to undermine the U.S. position in the Middle East.  Now, one has President Trump’s withdrawal from the multi-state nuclear agreement with Iran and the possible further destabilization of the region, and more potential Israel-Iran confrontations. Sure, it appears that the extremist Islamic State (ISIS) has been defeated in Iraq and Syria, but opposing radical Sunni and Shia forces continue to operate throughout the region.

Through all of this turmoil, except for Israel, no one is happy with American Middle Eastern policies. The Arab discontent has opened the door to increased Russian presence in the region and Turkey is unhappy with American military support to the Kurdish forces in northern Iraq. Moving the American embassy to Jerusalem didn’t help matters, as it again raised Israeli-Palestinian tensions. Worst, Lebanon is now facing greater influence by Iranian-backed Hezbollah. The strong showing by Hezbollah and its allies in recent Lebanese elections could jeopardize the country’s regional and international standing at a time when its leaders are counting on international support to prop up the economy, support the military and deal with the burden of nearly 1 million refugees from neighboring Syria.

Let’s face it, no one really believes that President Trump has a true understanding of Middle Eastern complexities. Instead, he will blindly follow Israel’s and Saudi Arabia’s lead on military and foreign policy matters. Unfortunately, the current mess will only get worst.  Starting with former President Obama, everyone agrees that the U.S. can’t unilaterally fix the Middle East. They’re going to need a lot of help from European and what few allies they have in the region.  We may be looking at a no-win outcome for some time to come.

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Much Ado About Nothing and Today’s Absorb News Coverage

The phrase ‘much ado about nothing’ is of course from William Shakespeare’s play – Much Ado About Nothing.  It appears that this phrase greatly applies to the political and social issues of the day and their related news coverage.  Think about many of the headlines covering news stories today in North America and abroad. Journalists appear to be more interested in the on-going saga of the current American President and a well-known porn star, a rather irrelevant royal marriage in the U.K., the Canadian Prime Minister’s ridiculous sartorial choices while in India, and the usual absurdities displayed during the recent NRA’s national convention.   With so many other much more important issues dominating the international and national scenes, you’d think that news outlets would have much better things to do than sensationalize such negligible events.  Especially since these events don’t really change anything in a meaningful way.

If anything, such events simply provide good fodder for late night comics, talk-show hosts, the tabloids and bloggers. The problem is that the average North American relies on these outlets for the majority of their news — fake or otherwise.  The real important stuff is conveniently hidden away in the back pages of print media.  The problem is also that people selectively choose what they want to hear or read, particularly if it supports their views — referred to as ‘positive reaffirmation’ by psychologists.  Moreover, getting caught up in the banalities of insignificant current events is just another form of escapism and avoidance of the real issues.

Instead, we consciously allow our leaders — political, religious or otherwise — to tell us what we should believe. No questions asked.  Opposite positions and arguments are conveniently provided for us to regurgitate upon command.  As for many of the issues being debated, we’ve been over the same points time and time again.  Maybe this is why there is so much desire for distraction and comic relief in our societies.  Such is the bread and butter for T.V. and radio talk-show hosts.  Just try watching and listening to their ramblings and that of their faithful listeners and you’ll appreciate the points that I’m making.

Let’s not complicate matters. Just give us the simple explanations.  Even better, just entertain us.  After all, Rome’s emperor, the decadent and unpopular Nero, was said to have “fiddled while Rome burned”, although fiddles actually didn’t exist in that era.

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Why Is It That We Still Can’t Understand The Limitations Of Governments To Do Things?

Recently, I read a number of articles in reputable sources blaming governments for all kinds of things. The complaints ranged from the decline in North American manufacturing jobs to proactive policies aimed at dealing with climate change and poverty.  The problem appears to be that the authors really don’t understand just what impact government policies and programs can have in reality.  Indeed, what is the ultimate role and purpose of governing?

Let’s put it in simpler terms. Governments are needed to ensure peace and good order in a society.  They do this by creating laws, administering and enforcing them for the good of all citizens.  Governments also strive to protect the individual rights of their citizens, constitutional or otherwise.  However, unlike a century ago, societal needs have become more complex and are influenced by many other factors — from new technologies, globalization, ideologies, oligopolies, world and domestic economic institutions, the environment, etc., etc. Most of these factors are outside the direct influence or control of governments.  If anything, the impact of other factors is felt more than that of government initiatives which tend to be more reactive than proactive.

Today, hundreds of lobbyists continuously work to influence government policies, often through financial support for politicians and parties. While governments attempt to be perceived as being independent, the reality is that the most influential interest groups get their fullest attention.  For example, one only has to look at recent tax reform initiatives in the U.S. and the influence of the National Rifle Association regarding the current gun control debate. Large business organizations run the economy, not government.  President Trump is witnessing their significant influence in the current debate over free trade versus his administration’s move to increased protectionism.

Except in the case of wars, governments rarely tackle issues in a speedy and drastic way, but rather do things in a deliberately slow and incremental approach. Sometimes, politicians just want to please as many interest groups as possible so as to get re-elected in the short-term.  It’s rare that governments attempt to move quickly to tackle those longer-term issues for fear of alienating their supporters, most of whom can’t see further than the end of their noses.  Unfortunately, rightly or wrongly, critics ignore the realities of governing today’s complex societies.  Many of the issues we face today have emerged and evolved over decades of governments with varying political stripes.  In order to be re-elected, political parties are more or less forced to take “centrist” positions or face the countervailing influence of powerful interest groups.  It’s hard to govern effectively and with a longer-term perspective when the immediate primary objective is political survival.  Sorry to be so cynical, but it’s been a tough week!

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Don’t Drink Too Much Alcohol, Although Drinking In Moderation Can Have Some Benefits?

Studies about risks or benefits to our health flow weekly from research about what we eat, drink or even inhale. In many cases, these studies tend to often contradict other studies, causing no shortage of confusion and inevitable concern.  Research on the consumption of alcohol is no different.  In 2011, the World Health Organization warned that alcohol causes nearly 4 percent of deaths worldwide, more than AIDS, tuberculosis or violence. On the other hand, University of California researchers found that moderate beer consumption may help fight osteoporosis, a disease of the skeletal system characterized by low bone mass and deterioration of bone tissue. However, the same researchers also found that even one glass of wine with dinner, if you’re 55 or older, may hit you hard enough to make you a dangerous driver. A 2010 study by British researchers concluded that heavy alcohol consumption is more harmful than illegal drugs like heroin and crack cocaine. Yet, other medical researchers have found that moderate consumption of red wine can actually improve heart health, although it may also put older adults with heart disease or diabetes at risk of developing a common form of arrhythmia.  However, it has been discovered that heavier drinkers were less likely to have a heart attack. Go figure!

Let’s face it, despite all the warnings about drinking too much alcohol, governments continue to make money on its distribution — much like tobacco. Indeed, today the U.S. government recommends no more than 14 drinks weekly for men and 7 drinks weekly for women. In Canada, it’s 15 drinks weekly for men and 10 drinks weekly for women. Some other European countries set even higher upper limits for men.  Considering myself to be a moderate drinker, I found these recommended limits to be somewhat high.  One might even suggest that at these rates of consumption there is a real danger of developing the condition referred to as alcoholic liver cirrhosis.  According to the American Liver Foundation, between 10 and 20 percent of heavy drinkers will develop such liver cirrhosis.

Now, North Americans have been drinking some form of alcoholic beverage for centuries. It’s a perfectly legal and acceptable pastime activity.  While there are legal restrictions and age limits, there is little doubt that people are introduced to alcohol in their early teens.  It’s only in the last few decades that societies have begun to actually examine the potential health and safety risks associated with drinking alcohol.  It’s only in recent years that legislators and law enforcement have tackled the self-evident dangers linked to drinking and driving.  Numerous campaigns — some fairly successful — have emerged addressing these dangers and their tragic consequences on our highways.

Given the history surrounding alcohol consumption and abuse in North American, I predict that we will see a similar pattern in how we treat recreational marijuana use. I’ve seen estimates that up to ninety percent of North American adults consume some form of alcohol, moderately or heavily.  While recreational marijuana use may not reach the same levels of usage, we will see more research emerging as to what are the benefits and the risks.  I also predict that, just as in case of alcohol studies, there will be results reflecting both the potential benefits and risks of marijuana use.  One can only hope that they are not as confusing as the past contradictory findings of studies on alcohol consumption.  Somehow, I’m not very optimistic.  Even with negative results, I suspect that alcohol and marijuana use will never be banned.  Instead, each individual will continue to have to weigh the benefits and risks for themselves.  As a result, do we really need any more studies?

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