FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Apr 3

Getting Closer to a World Economic Recession

by bcurry

One does not have to look too far or to be an economist to understand that there is the real danger among the world’s economies of a near future recession. On the one hand, you have the negative results of the U.S. tariffs on China, Europe and Canada. On the other hand, Brexit is already damaging the British economy, and the possibility of a no-deal with the European Union is a definite chaotic possibility.

Meanwhile, Japan’s economic growth is stumbling, particularly as trade with one of its biggest customers, China, is in trouble. China is the biggest driver of global growth, so its slowdown — or fear of it — is stoking concerns about the prospect of a worldwide recession. Japanese consumer electronics and automotive companies that depend on their fast-growing neighbour — China — are now slashing profit forecasts and considering idling factories.

Donald Trump’s administration, in the meantime, is all over the map. There appears to be no end in sight in the trade negotiations with China.  American and Canadian farmers — especially those with seed crops like canola — are already feeling the pinch as a result of losing the once profitable Chinese market.

While a global recession may not be as horrendous as that in 2005, the fact is that governments and central banks today have fewer tools to deal with it. Governments in North America and Europe have run up enormous debts in recent years.  Consumers also have run up huge debts over the last decade in light of extremely low borrowing interest rates.  Moreover, there is little wiggle room for governments to respond proactively.  The growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is declining everywhere. National unemployment rates are still low, but for the wrong reasons.  While there are too few skilled workers for those trades and professions needed in our modern economies, people are being forced to take lower skilled and lower paying jobs in the retail and service industries.  Average wages for the middle class have not increased adequately when inflation is taken into account, while family debt loads continue to go up.  Given that they drive over 70 percent of annual GDP growth, don’t expect consumers to help get us out quickly of the next recession. As politicians like to say, people are going to have to tighten their belts!  The question is — for how long?

China Global Economy US

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Mar 17

Extremist White Nationalist Movements Worldwide and the Attack on Mosques in New Zealand

by bcurry

Back in August 2017, I had a blog entitled White Supremacists Movements Should Be Outlawed in North America, after the march of white supremacists in city of Charlottesville, Virginia. At that time I argued that such movements have no place in today’s multicultural societies in the U.S. or Canada.  Just as governments target extreme Islamic groups like Al Quaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Western governments should also jointly target white supremacists movements. Failure to do so could result in more attacks on Mosques, black churches and synagogues in the U.S. and Canada.

Today, these groups are increasingly using social media to spread their hateful messages and to recruit new members through radicalization and anti-immigration slogans. One newspaper article called this trend “the weaponization of the internet’s culture of trolling.” Unfortunately, as in the case of the horrendous attacks on the mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, on March 15, 2019, live coverage of the shootings occurred on Facebook. This despite the fact that social media companies have said they would quickly take down content involving the mass shootings, which are posted online as the attack unfolded.  The company is again being scrutinized over its handling of privacy, extremism and political content, but to no avail so far.

Enough is enough. Since coming into office, President Trump has reduced the federal government’s oversight of the surveillance of national white supremacists in the U.S.  Instead, even after the lateness atrocity in New Zealand, the President is simply placing the blame on an individual or lone wolf. On the other hand, Trump does not hesitate to blindly blame Moslems as an ethnic group for supporting radical attacks and violence against Western targets.

Today, we see the emergence of radical right-wing white extremism across borders, especially through social media. Although attempts are being made to deal with radicalization among individuals within our communities, there appears to be no point in debating the issues with such violent groups as a whole.  They are dangerously well armed and relentless in the pursuit of implementing their doctrines against peaceful and non-violent members of our society.  It’s all fine and dandy to express our belief that love can overcome hate, but recent events have demonstrated once again that forceful and proactive counterterrorism is the only way to proceed when dealing with domestic terrorism.  Governments need to act now, not later when more atrocities occur and dozens of innocent men, women and children become victims as a result of inaction on our part.

Anti-Terroism Canada Extremism Terroism and the Media US

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Mar 3

Where Does It All End? — The Weird Era of Donald Trump

by bcurry

This past week has shown a bout of insanity not seen for some time under any American president. First, we had Michael Cohen’s testimony before the House Oversight and Reform Committee, calling the President “a liar, racist and conman.”  Wow!  Then we had the abysmal failure of the Trump-Kim talks over North Korean denuclearization and end of U.S. sanctions. Next, we had word of Trump last year ordering officials to grant top-secret security clearance to his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner, despite warnings by his own senior counsel and chief-of-staff not to grant such clearance.  Congress now wants officially to look further into the matter.

Meanwhile, 77-year old Bernie Sanders has once again declared himself a presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2020. Some analysts have predicted that as many as 40 Democrat candidates may launch bids against Donald Trump for the White House.  One may have to issue them football sweaters, each with numbers and names since there would be enough players to form their own NFL team. The trouble is that they don’t appear to have a common game plan, with some moving far to the left and others trying to be more centrist. Are Americans really ready for democratic socialism, a brand already attributed to Democrats by Trump? Ah, those dam lefties!

Last but not least, we have the President issuing an emergency order so as to take existing funds from the defense and other budgets to help pay for the construction of “barriers” along the border between the U.S. and Mexico. The U.S. House of Representatives then voted to revoke Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency to build his wall, whose efforts Trump vows to veto. Of course, the whole situation — due to valid questions of constitutionality — will end up in the courts, probably lasting several months if not years before a final decision is rendered.

What’s worst, numerous Republicans, mainly because they are afraid of Trump’s base, are increasingly backing the President’s executive orders and crazy political manoeuvrings. Of course, all of these shenanigans make good fodder for comedians and Saturday Night Live sketches.  One doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry!  As William Shakespeare once wrote: “All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players.”  In this case, the politicians are playing the role of clowns, with Trump leading the way.

Donald Trump North Korea US US Politics

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Feb 18

Crazy Remark by President Trump Gives Kim Jong Un the Proof He Needs

by bcurry

Here we go again, a recent off-the-cuff remark by President Trump that former President Barack Obama had stated in a meeting with then President-elect Trump that the U.S. had been on the verge of war with North Korea. Within hours of his remark, several former high ranking officials under President Obama indicated to multiple media sources that no such statement had been made during the exchange.  According to these knowledgeable persons, at no time had the U.S. been in a state of planning to carry out an assault on North Korea as claimed by President Trump.

What Donald Trump’s remark has done is confirm for Kim Jong Un that the threat to his regime of an attack by the U.S. had been imminent in the past. Kim can use this false revelation to defend the continuing build-up of his military capabilities, including his nuclear and missile capabilities.  Such statements by a sitting American president reinforce Kim’s past assertions to North Koreans that there was a real threat of American military action against their country.

Signing a peace treaty with North Korea will require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea and its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea. The removal of American forces, numbered in the tens of thousands, from South Korea is a precondition for any denuclearization by the North Korean regime. North Korea views the American forces as a real threat. Mass military drills and naval exercises by the U.S. and South Korea are also viewed by Kim’s regime as a rehearsal for war.

Next week, President Trump intends to meet once again with Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam, as a follow-up to their previous meeting. Reports had suggested that pre-summit talks may include North Korea’s closure of its main nuclear scientific research centre in Yongbyon in exchange for some sanctions relief or a declaration to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War. Let’s hope that President Trump’s false assertion about previous U.S. foreign policy positions vis-à-vis a war with North Korea don’t negatively influence the outcome of the upcoming talks. Please, Mr. President, no more silly off-the-cuff remarks!  The seriousness of the issues at hand leave no room to play politics.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy North Korea US

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Feb 12

Unbelievable — Racism Continues to Rear Its Ugly Head In The Southern States!

by bcurry

During the Sixties, I followed and studied closely the American news media coverage related the rise of the civil rights movement in the U.S.  The incredible emergence of movements led by Dr. Martin Luther King, Malcolm X and Stokely Carmichael greatly interested me at the time as a Canadian student of American history and political science.  My studies also looked at the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC), Congress of Racial Equality (CORE) and the Black Panther Party. With the federal Civil Rights Acts of 1964 and 1968 and other U.S. laws which ended segregation practices and moved to protect civil and voting rights, it looked like Americans were on the right track to deal with overt practices of discrimination. With the election of Barack Obama as the first black President, it looked like the U.S. had finally overcome many of the inequities of its racial past.

However, some things just refuse to change. First, there are all those statues in the U.S. dedicated to the infamous period of the Confederacy which fought against the Union forces to conserve its abominable practices involving black slavery. You would think that people would have matured enough in the eighties, nineties and today to understand the real sensitivities that African Americans have today about a history involving inequitable and inhumane treatment.  Yet this doesn’t appear to be the case.  We now have the white Governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam, and his Attorney General Mark Herring acknowledging that they wore blackface at parties in the 1980s. Unbelievable!

Although both men have apologized for appearing in blackface, many Virginians are outraged by the admissions. Sure, both were young and college students at the time, but this is no excuse.  Knowing Virginia’s racial history, both men should have known better. What’s worst, they don’t appear to see any self-evident need to resign.  The sad part of the scandal is that it shows from a cultural perspective how much further Americans need to go to deal with its racial attitudes.  Hopefully, they have learned from these incidents and will work more closely with people of all races to deal with racism in its midst.  We in Canada must also learn from our own past and history of racism and discrimination. Given that this is Black History month, we owe it to our children to learn from history and move forward together into the future.

Racism US US Politics

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Feb 3

Are We Entering Into Another Nuclear Arms Race?

by bcurry

I was in public school when the Cuban Crisis took place in 1962. President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev almost started a nuclear war over the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba and the subsequent American naval blockade of the waters off Cuba to Soviet shipping. Both countries had enough nuclear warheads and intercontinental missiles to wipe each other out several times over.  In school, we were even practicing in the event of a possible nuclear attack.  Scary stuff!

After that, level heads thankfully prevailed and the Soviets dismantled and withdrew their missiles from Cuba, and the U.S. quietly did the same in Turkey. Both sides recognized the concept of “mutual nuclear deterrence” which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy’s use of those same weapons. Subsequently, both the U.S. and the Soviets began negotiations to limit and reduce their respective nuclear arsenals. This also led in 1987 to the signing by President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev of  the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The INF was to limit the deployment of all ground-based nuclear weapons with a certain intermediate range, particularly those that allowed the Soviets to hit European targets or NATO forces to hit Soviet targets from locations in Europe.

Unable to reach a new INF agreement with Russia, the Trump White House announced that it’s pulling out of the treaty, only to be followed immediately by Vladimir Putin’s announcement as to Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement and negotiations. Most experts believe that Russia had been wanting out of the treaty for more than a decade, especially given Putin’s aggressive policies in Europe as exemplified by Russia’s military intervention in Eastern Ukraine.  There appears to be little doubt that the Russians have been “cheating” under the INF by developing cruise-missile-style low-flying weapons covered under the Treaty’s intermediate defined ranges. The U.S. now intends to conduct the R&D and work on the systems they haven’t been able to use because of American compliance with the treaty.

With the lost of such arms-related treaties, the world may very well be entering another arms race compared to that during the Cold War. Do we really need this situation at a time when global peace initiatives have been threatened in numerous ways?  It will also allow other countries, like China and North Korea, to further justify the continuation their arms development. Let’s just hope that we are not heading for the brink of another crisis like that which happened over five decades ago.

Donald Trump Military Prowess US

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Jan 27

There Was Another Infamous Wall Called The Berlin Wall

by bcurry

Due to President Trump’s current political stance regarding the border with Mexico, there is a lot of talk about expanding a barrier between the two countries. However, do such barriers or walls really work all that well?  In 1961, a wall was built by East German authorities between East Berlin and West Berlin.  The wall was to prevent East Germans from fleeing East Germany to enter West Germany via West Berlin. According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, the original wall, built of barbed wire and cinder blocks, was subsequently replaced by a series of concrete walls (up to 15 feet [5 metres] high) that were topped with barbed wire and guarded with watchtowers, gun emplacements, and mines. By the 1980s that system of walls, electrified fences, and fortifications extended 28 miles (45 km) through Berlin, dividing the two parts of the city, and extended a further 75 miles (120 km) around West Berlin, separating it from the rest of East Germany.

However, despite this massive fortification, over 5,000 East Germans managed to cross the Berlin Wall (by various means) and reach West Berlin safely. Finally, in 1989 the East German government opened the country’s borders with West Germany (including West Berlin). The openings were made in the Berlin Wall through which East Germans could travel freely to the West. During the Cold War, the wall had become a symbol of state oppression and an attempt to prevent thousands of desperate people from seeking freedom in the West, many at real risks to their lives and certain imprisonment in East Germany if captured.

Extending a wall between the U.S. and Mexico would also become a symbol of one country’s oppressive policies to deny refuge to desperate men, women and children fleeing for their lives. To arbitrarily deny all refugees the possibility of safe haven by erecting a wall is morally wrong in itself.  To think that a wall will stem the tide of those seeking a better life for themselves and their families is not a practical solution, as evidenced by the Berlin Wall.  Just as the Berlin Wall had ceased to function as a political barrier between East and West Germany, so would a physical border wall with Mexico never adequately and humanely deal with the current influx of refugees.

Surely, the U.S. administration can come up with more humane alternatives and viable policy options to help these people either in their countries or while in the process of desperate flight. Monies expended on the construction of a wall expansion could better be spent on improving the conditions faced by potential refugees in their countries of origin.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Immigration US

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Jan 17

U.S. Federal Government Leaves Public Servants and Their Communities in Economic Turmoil

by bcurry

Well, here we go again! Back in January 2018, I blogged briefly about the then federal government shutdown in Another U.S. government shutdown – is this anyway to run a country?

Now, we are almost a month into the longest shutdown of government services in U.S. history, all thanks to President Trump’s insistence on funding for a larger wall, barrier or whatever at the Mexican border. As a result, over 800,000 federal public servants have been furloughed or are working without being paid.  Needless-to-say, this is having a negative impact on most workers and an economic impact in the local communities in which they live.

Imagine, the shutdown is affecting security at airports with TSA agents calling in sick or turning to temporary jobs to make ends meet. Air traffic controllers are being forced to work extra hours because of no new personnel are graduating from their training institute.  Food safety inspectors were unable to carry out their daily inspections.  National parks, while open, have no park wardens or other employees to oversee their daily operations, often putting visitors at risk.  Homeland security personnel are also affected, including Coast Guard workers.  Farmers are forced to wait for government subsidies.  These are only a few of the key government services that are affected.

As for local communities, federal government jobs represent many of the better paying jobs in the communities. Normally fairly stable, federal workers contribute to local economies by buying homes, paying municipal taxes, volunteering, purchasing local goods and services, etc., etc.  Many public servants are highly educated and have chosen public service over working for often higher wages in the private sector.  They have chosen public service careers because of relative certainty, good pension plans and health insurance, perks that are harder to come by as an employee in corporate America. In addition, an increasingly diverse public service offers an equalizer for African-Americans and women, who are far more likely to earn high salaries working for the government than they would with a company.

Whether one supports public servants or not, the fact is that they play an increasingly major role in modern society. The on-off-again shutdowns of recent years do nothing to enhance the reputation of the government to potentials hires.  The loss of many important government services and economic contributions is not what the U.S. needs at this time. Experienced and highly-skilled employees are reconsidering their future employment options, threatening to create the potential loss of talent at a time when the federal government needs it the most.  Congress and the President need to get on with the business of governing, sooner rather than later.

Federal Government Public Service US US Politics

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Jan 11

Trump’s Crack Down on Immigration has Foreign Tech Talent Looking to Canada

by bcurry

Back in February 2017, I published a blog entitled President Trump, Please Keep Your Immigration Ban On in which I noted that a Canadian study in 2016 concluded that there would be as many as 182,000 high-paying technology jobs up for grabs in Canada by 2019. Well, 2019 is here and Canada is still looking for more high tech talent. At that time, a research report by Goldman Sachs estimated that 900,000 to a million H-1B visa holders (highly skilled foreign workers) resided in the U.S., accounting for up to 13 percent of American technology jobs. However, today many of those same workers are concerned about President Trump’s vow to crack down on the H-1B visa program, which allows 85,000 foreigners per year to work in “specialty occupations” in the States. Reports indicate that the number of inquiries about Canada from nervous H-1B holders has skyrocketed since 2017. American companies have declared that the inconsistent immigration policies are unfair and discourage talented and highly skilled individuals from pursuing career options in the U.S. Getting U.S. work visas has become a significant challenge.

In the meantime, a number of Canadian recruiting firms have sprung up to attract highly skilled foreign workers to settle in Canada, particularly those from Silicon Valley and other high tech enclaves. As well, in 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government launched the Global Talent Stream. The program is designed to fast-track work authorization for those with job offers in high-demand realms of science and tech. Successful applicants can get a work permit in a matter of weeks, and their spouses and children are eligible for work or study permits.

Canada is doing a much better job at marketing itself, ensuring that foreign workers are given all the right and necessary information they need to realize that a move to Canada is not as bad as some might think. Canada’s cities are among the best in the world, offering all the amenities that a modern society can offer, with excellent infrastructures, schools, recreational facilities and safe environments. Tech types make good money relative to the cost of living and Canada has much better employment standards laws and income support programs than found in many countries, including the U.S.

What is going on in the U.S. with its immigration policies is unfortunate. However, as indicated in my previous blog, Canadian firms would most likely benefit from any increased flow of high tech workers to Canada. If the President’s policies and the lack of certainty continue, Canada can only but benefit even further. Increasingly, Canada will appeal to people who want stability, including perhaps some American citizens.

Canada Donald Trump Immigration Immigration Policies US

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Dec 23

With Trump, There’s Nowhere To Go But Down

by bcurry

Well, President Trump, you’ve gone and done it again. 2018 is ending with a big downward spiral in everything political, economic and international.  What’s really sad is that your narcissistic self has gotten the better part of your uneven temperament.  Let’s see, your former Chief of Staff and Secretary of Defense are now gone over obvious in-fighting in the not so tranquil White House.  American allies around the world are bewildered at your foreign policies, including the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Syria and Afghanistan. Your failure to condemn the leaders of Saudi Arabia for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has brought disgrace upon the U.S.  The November elections saw the Republicans loose control of the House of Representatives and numerous state legislatures.  Your so-called protectionist trade practices have helped the stock exchanges head into the worst bear markets since the great recession of 2008.  The American people are more divided then ever before.  Now, you’ve caused the shut down of many federal departments and agencies just before Christmas, with some 300,000 civil servants going without pay for who knows how long.  All over your squabble with Congress about including $5 Billion to construct a silly wall between the U.S. and Mexico, for which you had unrealistically promised during the election would be paid for by Mexico. Even members of the Republican Party are becoming frustrated with your irrational premise for a shut-down which you openly welcomed and endorsed on national television.

As we approach the start of a New Year, there appears that there is little hope for things to get any better. Your trade war with China has only just begun and we may be on the verge of another global recession. Americans, Canadians, Europeans, Japanese and everyone else will suffer as a result.  I’m afraid, President Trump, that you are no King Midas.  It appears that everything you touch turns to one big turd.  Indeed, the best is yet to come!  There are still the indictments of members of the President’s election team and the final outcome of the Mueller investigation which most likely will be the political story of 2019.  There is also little doubt that the Democrat majority House will begin investigations into your behaviour and past transgressions.  You may be yet facing impeachment proceedings.  But don’t worry.  You can always ask your good buddy, Vladimir Putin, to provide you with refuge in lovely Moscow. I hear that it’s nice at this time of the year.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Immigration Political Scandals US

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