FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Feb 28

Canada is very likely heading into a major recession, especially in light of COVID-19

by bcurry

Canada’s growth slows to its weakest pace in almost four years as economic woes bite. Statistics Canada has now revised the third quarter annualized growth down to 1.1 per cent from an initial 1.3 per cent. In addition to recent rail and pipeline shutdowns and the slowdown in oil and gas and mining sectors, the Canadian economy is going to have to brace for the effects of COVID-19.  For example, Chinese tourists to Canada accounted for 7.3 per cent of our tourism receipts. Exports of iron, copper, lobsters and lumber are also at risk due to weaker demand from China. No one knows for sure how long the COVID-19 outbreaks will last and how severe it will be in North America. Given China’s current COVID-19 closures, global supply chains are being seriously impacted here and in Europe. Like the SARS outbreaks in 2003, some experts expect that COVID-19 could last anywhere from seven to eight more months.

The immediate economic impact this week has been on the stock markets with the Canadian TSX and the U.S. Dow losing its greatest amounts in one week since the Great Recession of 2008. With trillions of dollars loss in one week, nothing like this has been seen before and we are no longer simply talking about the expected stock market correction in Canada and in the U.S.

Over the past year, I have been warning of a possible recession because the very weak underlying factors around manufacturing and consumer spending. Instead, corporations have been using profits to pay shareholders and buy back company shares, instead of reinvesting in capital, R & D and labour.  Now, multinational enterprises like Apple, Hyundai and Samsung are seeing their Chinese supply chains shut down resulting in expected reduced future earnings.

The question for North American industries is what will happen should the COVID-19 virus spread to manufacturing plants and the service industries for example. COVID-19 is here and all one can do is to prepare for any possible pandemic.  Remember that the only way to contain the virus is through quarantine and isolating affecting individuals.  Should one employee test positive, an entire establishment may have to be closed and employees would be required to go into self-quarantine.  No one wants to exaggerate the threats, but one has to realize that the economic situation in Canada is already weak. COVID-19 could be the one major event to trigger a major recession in the coming months. Both Canadians and Americans need to be prepared for such an outcome.

Canada COVID-19 Global Economy Trade with China

Leave a comment »
Feb 22

Use of Non-Violent Civil Disobedience by Anti-Pipeline Protesters

by bcurry

Throughout modern history we have seen examples of non-violent civil disobedience in the form of staged sit-ins, marches, blockades, hunger strikes and other tactics used to raise awareness about issues that are taking place in society. Among the best known examples are the movements led by people such as India’s Mahatma Gandhi, South Africa’s anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela and of course Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.  One of the main principles of civil disobedience is to maintain respect for the rule of law even while disobeying a specific law considered to be unjust.  In addition, those demonstrating peaceful civil disobedience were willing to go to jail without resisting arrest by the authorities.

In the last two weeks in Canada, one has seen protests by certain indigenous groups in support of members of the Wet’suwet’en nation opposed to the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline being built through their territory in British Columbia. Protesters attempted to illegally block the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline, forcing the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to enforce a court injunction against the blockade.  However, within the

Wet’suwet’en nation there are major divisions between elected Band leaders who support the project in terms of its economic benefits and some hereditary chiefs who oppose the project on the basis of protecting traditional lands.

The hereditary chiefs wanted the RCMP to leave their lands, which they are prepared to do. In support of the hereditary chiefs, protesters from various native groups blocked rail lines across the country, bringing passenger rail service and rail freight traffic to a halt during the past two weeks of blockades.  Freight rail service is said to have fallen by 18%, and hundreds of rail employees have been temporarily laid off.  Court injunctions were obtained against the blockades, but the authorities had as yet to move in to dismantle the barricades.  What is also interesting is that non-native anti-pipeline groups have taken the opportunity to join in these civil disobedience activities to promote their own causes.

Now that the federal government has exhausted consultations with those representing the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, there is a clear indication that the economy is being hurt by the rail shutdown. The time has come for the authorities to move in and dismantle the illegal blockades, hopefully in a non-violent manner.  Since part of civil disobedience is the real possibility of being arrested and jailed, the protesters — both native and non-native — have to be willing to end up in jail.  Violent resistance is not among the principles governing the use of civil disobedience.  It is now up to the protesters to confirm their adherence to those principles and either dismantle the blockades or be arrested.  Not doing so will only hurt their stated causes and loose any public support and possibly even the support of many native peoples.  The federal government has made it clear that it remains willing to continue its reconciliation policies and initiatives with indigenous peoples.  The protesters, whether you choose to agree or disagree, have made their point.  Further hurting people across the country is not the way to go!

Canada Native Issues

Leave a comment »
Feb 14

Treating Tweets By Donald Trump As Gospel And The Impact on Governance

by bcurry

At no time in American Presidential history has technology created serious concerns regarding the separation of powers and the obstruction of justice. When the American President tweets out something, his administration, his followers and the general public treat it as gospel.  Gone are the normal press conferences of the past, only to be replaced instead by tweets and short media scrums.  The problem is over how to draw a line between the ad hoc public declarations of the President and perceived interference in the justice system.  Remember, the justice system is expected to be an independent part of governance and rightly so.  Besides Congress and the Executive, the justice system through its various branches is designed to ensure independence and impartiality in its decision making processes and in enforcement of the law.

However, Attorney General William Barr has now stated that President Trump’s criticisms of the handling of his friend Roger Stone’s sentencing has undermined the legal system, and he is not able to do his important job. Although there may be no direct evidence of interference by Trump, his tweeted assertions that the Justice Department’s Prosecutors’ push for a sentence of up to nine years for Stone’s convictions was too harsh could only be perceived as an attempt to influence the Attorney General.  Subsequently, the AG decided to overrule his own prosecutors and withdraw the sentencing recommendation, giving the appearance of caving in to Presidential pressure.  Instead, the AG’s office suggested that the prosecutors instead lay out factors for Judge Amy Berman Jackson to consider in sentencing Mr. Stone but defer to her on the length of the final sentence. With this outcome, the four prosecutors resigned from the case in protest, with one actually leaving the Justice Department.

As the New York Times notes, speaking up could have put Mr. Barr at risk of losing the backing of the President, but remaining silent would have permitted Trump to continue attacking law enforcement and all but invited open revolt among the some 115,000 employees of the Justice Department. Previously, the President had made it difficult for Mr. Barr to maintain the appearance of independence, threatening the AG’s credibility by repeatedly calling for federal investigations of Trump’s perceived enemies.  Trump had suggested to the president of Ukraine that he work with Mr. Barr and the President’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani to investigate for personal political benefit some of Mr. Trump’s political opponents: i.e. Joe Biden and his son. This action of course formed the whole basis for the impeachment hearings and trial against Trump in Congress.

Even more serious, is the fact that public statements by any President, in whatever format, are considered as the administration’s official position. Despite the fact that the President’s staff often is forced to follow up with a further explanation of just what the President’s assertion was, Trump’s initial tweet will always be taken by his followers as gospel.  This may play well with Trump’s base of support, but will often undermine the credibility and sanctity of the three separate legs of governance and democracy.  Even the Republicans in Congress are now beginning to realize that the powers of the President have to be restrained as intended under the Constitution, given the importance of the intended checks and balances provided by the three arms of government.

Donald Trump Federal Government US US Politics

Leave a comment »
Feb 8

Trump Administration’s “Industrial Militarism” Highlighted In Attack on China’s Huawei

by bcurry

Nowhere is it more clearly demonstrated that President Trump is using industrial clout to carry out “industrial militarism” than in his attack on Huawei to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. 5G stands for fifth-generation networks which are essentially a faster and more reliable version of wireless connectivity and mark a massive leap forward in such wireless technology.  Numerous industrialized countries are moving to build a 5G network, such as Canada whose 5G network could be in place around 2020. Huawei is the largest global company in 5G development and installation and is involved in 140-plus countries around the world. In Canada, companies such as Telus and BCE, or Bell Canada, are partnering to build 5G technology along with Huawei. Their Canadian rival, Rogers, is working alongside Swedish telecom Ericsson— a main Huawei rival. As a result, Ottawa has come under increasing pressure from the U.S. to block Huawei from developing its 5G technology in Canada, as critics warn it could present a national security risk.

Recently, U.S. Attorney General William Barr made the case for an all-out economic war on China’s Huawei in order to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. He even called on America’s “allies” to join what amounts not only an international strategic offensive against Huawei but also against China itself. He further suggested that the U.S. and its allies, including Canada and Britain, align their financial and technological forces to support European firms, Nokia and Ericsson, Huawei’s major 5G competitors. By getting governments to become involved in a business sector, such as the telecom sector, this position would contradict the traditional American principle of supporting free-market enterprise.  It would be blatantly perceived as causing a geo-strategic economic confrontation with China, similar to what occurred during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

So far, a number of countries, including Canada and Britain, have rejected the idea of participating in any U.S. takeover of Nokia and/or Ericsson. Interestingly, although use of Huawei equipment has been banned in the U.S. since 2012 over fears it’s a security risk, some two dozen U.S. telecom companies have used Huawei’s equipment to provide services in remote regions. In Canada, a number of communities in provinces such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan, are using Huawei equipment to service non-core 4G in rural regions in particular. So far, there is no evidence that China has used network equipment for cyber-espionage.

As critics of “industrial militarism” argue, is it really up to Americans to fight the People’s Republic of China and its authoritarian regime — with its state-run enterprises and dirigiste economic policies — by adopting some of the same statist interventions? As one expert rightly noted, an extended trade war between the U.S. and China and threats by Trump to ban certain Chinese tech firms from the American supply chain, could further divide the global tech scene. Left unchanged, that could result in a world where technological progress among countries is far less uniform, cost-effective and integrated.  In Canada, competition in the telecom sector is alive and well. Huawei, Swedish telecom Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung and others are all being allowed to compete freely in pursuit of the lucrative market.  This is expected to greatly improve telecom services to Canadian consumers, especially in rural and remote regions.

Canada China Foreign Policy Telecom Sector US

Leave a comment »
Feb 4

Trump’s Latest Visa Restrictions Will Have A Negative Impact On Canadian Immigration

by bcurry

Well, here we go again! The Trump administration has just introduced restrictions on immigration to include six more countries, including Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation. You may remember that President Trump first introduced a travel ban in 2017, closing U.S. borders to citizens from seven countries, most of them with Muslim majorities. He is now targeting Nigeria, Sudan and Eritrea, already among the largest sources of refugee claims lodged by people crossing irregularly into Canada from the U.S.  The 2017 decision also signalled the end of the American program giving Haitians a reprieve from deportation.  That move prompted thousands of Haitians to seek asylum in Canada, with sometimes hundreds crossing at unmarked border points in a single day.

According to the most recent data available from Canadian authorities, Nigeria is currently the largest source country for border crossers, making up 14,621 of the 50,635 claims lodged between February 2017 and September 2019. The bizarre thing is that many of those crossing irregularly from the States are applying for refugee status in Canada, often as a result of lapsing temporary visas in the U.S.  There is little doubt that the latest visa restrictions are part of Trump’s attempt to do his level best to ensure that more refugees stay out of the U.S.  However, the policy has prompted thousands from these countries to seek asylum in Canada. Imagine, seeking asylum from government policies in the U.S.

Unfortunately, Canada shares one of the world’s longest borders with another country. The situation in the U.S. means that Canada has to devote more resources to policing its borders. In addition, the onus is now on Canada to physically accommodate and financially assist the thousands of new asylum seekers while their request for refugee status is reviewed and adjudicated by the Immigration and Refugee Board. Needless-to-say, the process is costly and time consuming, sometimes lasting months and even years.  For example, in 2017 according to the Immigration and Refugee Board, over 8,000 Haitians sought asylum in Canada. In 2018, that number was only about 1,500.

Homeland Security argues that the past and new restrictive visa measures were the result of failures by countries to meet U.S. security and information-sharing standards. Perhaps, what the Americans should be doing is to discuss with those countries ways and means to meeting such requirements.  Instead, the U.S. appears quite content to carry out exclusive policies when it comes to immigration and travel, most often targeting countries that they simply don’t like for one reason or another. Meanwhile, Canada, with its laws and its Refugee and Humanitarian Resettlement Program for refugees seeking protection from outside of Canada, has to deal with the overflow of desperate individuals and families fleeing the Trump Administration’s inhumane and extremist policies. Go figure!

Canada Immigration Immigration Policies U.S. Canada Border US

Leave a comment »
Jan 26

Liar. Liar. Lie Your Pants On Fire.

by bcurry

Do you remember this little rhyme when you were a child? I do.  Having listened to Donald Trump’s speeches and having read his tweets over the last three years, one cannot believe that it doesn’t apply to the current President of the United States? I don’t need to go into outlining each and every account since most major American news media has clearly recorded the hundreds of outright lies.  Now, the President’s staff do try to downplay Trump’s lies and inaccuracies but to no avail.  They suggest that the President was misquoted or misunderstood.  Indeed, no one has ever apologized for his “gross misstatements” or downright “lies”.  Interestingly, the Democrats are focusing on Trump’s character as they argue in the impeachment trial for his removal from office.

Trump has come up with every excuse under the book. He frequently claims that he doesn’t know people who he has had business with or have had their pictures taken on several occasions with him.  His number one co-liar is of course Rudi Giuliani who claims to be Trump’s personal lawyer.  Indeed, the impeachment trial has shown just how Giuliani is the President’s personal henchman.  The problem is that Giuliani has a tendency to open his mouth before first thinking about what he is saying.  Even Fox News has questioned why Giuliani was working in Ukraine as the president’s attorney, instead as a government official or an appointed presidential envoy with an official title. The impeachment proceedings have made it very clear that the President was initially withholding military aid to the Ukraine as a club to get the Ukraine authorities to launch a fraud investigation into past dealings by Joe Biden and his son with the Ukraine. Of course, despite all the evidence, Trump denies the allegations, seconded by Giuliani who proclaims that the President did no wrong. Instead, Giuliani is on record as proclaiming that “Joe Biden is a crook and he sold out the United States of America — in Iraq, in Ukraine, in China” without ever offering a thread of proof.

Meanwhile, despite being on trial, the President is calling the shots for the Republican Senators in the impeachment trial. The President’s defense has yet to offer any new evidence or witnesses to counter the charges that were brought forward.  All you get are “conspiracy” theories and deny, deny and deny some more.  After all, Trump did nothing wrong as the President has publicly declared a hundred times before.  Can one really believe him?  Unfortunately, with a Republican controlled Senate, there isn’t any chance that the President will be impeached.  Too bad!

Impeachment Proceedings US US Politics

Leave a comment »
Jan 19

U.S. Lags Behind Most Other Countries In Paid Maternity Leave

by bcurry

The U.S. provides no paid leave for mothers.  Any kind of leave is regulated by federal labour laws.  The U.S. ranks right up there with Lesotho, Liberia, Swaziland, and Papua New Guinea which are the only other countries found to not guarantee leave with income to new mothers.  Not something to brag about!  For the majority of American workers at companies with fewer than 50 employees, there is no legal right to paid or unpaid leave to care for a new child or recover from childbirth.  Furthermore, recent studies show that the current laws disproportionately impact women of color and low-income women, who are less likely to take unpaid leave.

On the other hand, the Canadian government mandates both a leave and a benefits component, the latter being administered by employment insurance (EI) plans. Depending on the length of employment history and the hours worked, eligible new mothers can take between 17 and 52 weeks of leave from their jobs. Their employers are required to accept the employees back into their jobs, or the equivalent, at the end of the mandated leave at the same rate of pay with the same employment benefits. On top of mandating maternity leave, the government offers paid leave for one or both parents through Canada’s EI plan. A pregnant employee or new mother can take a paid maternity leave of up to 15 weeks. Subsequently, paid EI parental benefits are also offered to parents who are caring for a newborn or newly adopted child or children, most often up to one year. In addition, in Canada, many companies and public services top up their employee allocated EI amounts for maternity and parental leave.

The reality of new working motherhood in America is both hidden and horrible: millions of women, every year, are forced back to work within just days or weeks after giving birth. Isn’t it about time that U.S. governments recognize the importance of allowing new mothers to nurture their babies at least for an appropriate length of time after giving birth or following an adoption. Surely, such a rich country can afford to ensure that mothers are provided with some form of mandatory financial assistance and “return-to-work” assurances found in all industrialized countries.  Maybe it’s about time that Congress act quickly on reforming its labour laws.  The time for more debate is over!

Uncategorized

Leave a comment »
Jan 13

American Assertions of Imminent Iranian Threat to Attack U.S. Embassies Appears to be Questionable

by bcurry

Trump’s claim made to justify the decision to kill Iranian general Qasem Soleimani that attacks were being planned to attack four U.S. embassies has not been verified by actual intelligence. Even his Defence Secretary Mark Esper stated that he ‘didn’t see’ evidence of an Iranian plot to attack four U.S. embassies. Kind of reminds you of another President’s rationale for invading and occupying Iraq after 9-11.

16 years ago on February 5, 2003, then Secretary of State Colin Powell delivered his infamous presentation at the United Nations making the case for war with Iraq. Remember that Powell insisted that the Iraqis, and in particular their dictator Saddam Hussein, were behind the attacks on 9-11 and had “weapons of mass destruction (WMD)”, including tons of the deadly nerve agent VX. This despite the fact that Iraqi insiders and American intelligence sources had confirmed that the Iraqi regime had secretly destroyed the nerve agent soon after the Gulf War in 1991. Indeed, legitimate sources concluded that all WMDs — biological, chemical, missiles, nuclear — were subsequently destroyed.  Following the occupation of Iraq and an extensive search, the Americans did not find any WMDs. The result was that over four thousand Americans and coalition troops died and almost 32,000 were wounded in action in the Iraq War.  In addition, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that about $1.9 trillion would be the long-term price tag for the war.

Unfortunately, Congress never investigated Powell’s use of the intelligence he was given. Furthermore, based on misinformation regarding the actual intelligence, most members of Congress supported the decision by President George W. Bush to invade Iraq. Now, history may have just repeated itself.  President Trump decided to kill a top Iranian commander without providing clear and unquestionable facts to justify the action.  On top of which, Congressional leaders were not consulted beforehand because Trump has accused some as being “corrupt”.  We have also now learned that Trump reportedly okayed assassinating Soleimani seven months ago.

Whether or not you agree that Soleimani should have been assassinated is not real question. Let’s face it, he will most likely be replaced by one of his underlings.  However, we now have increased the instability in the region and raised the risks to Iraqis, Iranians and foreigners.  This is unfortunately demonstrated by the tragic shooting down of the Ukraine International Airline flight 752 by an Iranian missile, resulting in the deaths of all 176 passengers and crew.  Hopefully, all sides will attempt to deescalate these new tensions and Congress will do a better job of overseeing the President’s actions then it did in the past.

Iran Iraq Today The Middle East US

Leave a comment »
Jan 7

Trump Is Completely Out To Lunch When It Comes To Iran

by bcurry

Here we go again! Hasn’t the American administration learned from past mistakes in the Middle East?  Remember supporting the former dictator, the Shah of Iran, against the Iranian people who suffered terribly under his regime.  Remember the flimsy excuses given by Bush Jr. to invade Iraq based on false intelligence about  Saddam Hussein’s supposed “weapons of mass destruction”.  Remember how the American occupation of Iraq and failure of subsequent Iraqi governments led to the emergence of the Islamic State (ISIL) and subsequent years of terror in the region.

Now, we have an American President ordering the assassination of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who the Trump administration claimed to pose a “clear and present danger.”  One can always ask “why now”?  Seems all too convenient as a distraction for a President who is smack in the middle of the impeachment process.  Now, U.S. and NATO forces and Westerners in the region are at real risk from Iranian reprisals.  The Iraqi parliament has voted to kick American and foreign forces out of the country, despite Trump’s threats of placing stiff sanctions on Iraq and making the Iraqis pay for the al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.  This important base hosts many U.S. troops and was a strategic key in the war against ISIL.  Indeed, the U.S.-Iranian conflict may have just opened the door for the reemergence of ISIL in the region which is a much greater threat to everyone.  Remember that Iranian-backed forces fought against ISIL in Syria.

The actions by Trump carried out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo  and Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper may have just complicated what is already a dangerous situation in the region.  As was the past case in Iraq and Afghanistan, the current administration appears to have no strategy to deal with the likely escalation of U.S.-Iranian conflict that will most definitely follow.  Iran on the other hand has been given an opportunity by the American actions to distract the Iranian people from recent protests and uprisings within Iran against the regime driven by the country’s poor economic conditions.  In addition, the Iranian regime now has an excuse to recommense its nuclear arms program by withdrawing from the current accord which, under Trump, is no longer recognized by the U.S.

Canada, which has hundreds of military and other personnel in the region, has helped in the training of Iraqi security forces. With the recent events, they have been told to stand down.  The Americans have unfortunately paused their counterterrorism operations and are now focused on ensuring their security on bases throughout the region.  Some retaliatory moves by Iran are bound to happen, leaving Westerners throughout the region in a very dangerous position.  Trump’s further threats of potential reprisals, military or economic, may only add to what is already a very volatile situation.  Indeed, I would advocate that all Canadian personnel be withdrawn immediately and entirely from the region, in particular from Iraq.  Once again, why should Canadians pay with their lives for U.S. mistakes in the region?

Canada Donald Trump Iran Iraq Iraq Today Terrorism US

Leave a comment »
Dec 25

Accepting the Inevitability of Technical Surveillance is Just Wrong

by bcurry

I just finished reading a Washington Post article on how American colleges are turning students’ smartphones into surveillance machines, keeping track of their attendance in class and their activities around the campus. To say that this is highly disturbing is an understatement.  It’s bad enough that companies and even the authorities can track us at any time using surveillance software, but now even the privacy of students on campuses across the U.S. and Canada is under attack.

Officials like to employ euphemisms to justify their actions, including references to “monitoring” instead of “tracking” and moving toward “heightened educational vigilance”. In particular, colleges appear to be interested in tracking via smartphones the activities of those athletes in receipt of athletic scholardships.  You’d think that the purpose of grades would be enough to ensure scholarship requirements are being met.  Some have even suggested that such surveillance can be used to track the “behaviour” of students in order to evaluate their mental health.  Again, you would think that there exist adequate and available campus services to assist students in need while maintaining their privacy at the same time.

As data scientists and companies themselves recognize, much of the data collected is not always guaranteed to be “accurate, complete, correct, adequate, useful, timely, reliable or otherwise”. For example, this issue is one that has particularly been raised with respect to “facial recognition” software.  Unfortunately for students, tracking their attendance in classes, visits to libraries on campus, etc.,etc. may be misinterpreted due to faulty soft-ware or the misuse of data.

As the article points out, surveillance technology is becoming more and more ubiquitous in societies. People being constantly monitored — their peers, and themselves — feel that they can’t really do anything about it, thus “reinforcing a sense of powerlessness”.  The issue of privacy of our movements and activities has become even more pertinent with the increasing use of surveillance technology and expanding reach of “surveillance creep”.  Over 90 percent of North Americans now claim to use a smartphone, highlighting what will become the greatest privacy issue of the next decade.  I firmly believe in ensuring one’s privacy is protected as a fundamental right.  This is why, by choice, I don’t have a smartphone and prefer to go with a so-called “dumb phone” as my cellular option.  Think about it!

Canada Technology Surveillance US

Leave a comment »
«Older Entries
Newer Entries »
Blog at WordPress.com.