FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Mar 24

There Are Numerous Signs That People Have Yet to Believe In Seriousness of COVID-19 Outbreaks

by bcurry

The news today is not good in that the COVID-19 outbreaks are continuing to grow exponentially. Yet, a number of activities and behaviours in the U.S. and Canada indicate that many people are not taking this pandemic seriously. For example:

  • A recent survey in Canada about the outbreak indicated that 37 percent of men are either a little or not at all worried about it, compared to 25 percent of women. Only 20 percent of men aged 18 to 29 years old are very worried about the virus.
  • This past weekend, people of all ages could be seen in parks strolling in large groups, sunning on beaches, sipping beverages together, etc., etc. This despite multiple warnings from health authorities to “socially distance” from each other for up to 2 metres apart (6 feet for Americans).
  • Among essential businesses not closing in Ontario are liquor and beer stores. Go figure!
  • Given a multitude of concerns expressed by IOCs around the globe, Japan has finally been forced after much pressure to postpone the summer Olympics until 2021. Meanwhile, the Olympic flame sits idly by in Tokyo.
  • The American President stated publicly that two old anti-malaria medications are being considered as potential treatments for the virus and he considers them “game changer.” This despite the fact that his top infectious diseases advisor says that the evidence is flimsy and may even be dangerous and they are not without serious side effects.
  • Instead of declaring that the outbreak could take months to get under control, President Trump continues to express his policies in terms of weeks, preferring to unrealistically bank on reassessments at the end of March 2020. He appears to be more concerned about the stock markets.
  • A lot of scams are surfacing which rely on taking advantage of the fears of people, including some that market themselves as cures or treatments for the coronavirus.
  • Some returnees to Canada and the S. are not going into a 14-day self-isolation period upon their return as per the requirements of each national government.
  • The Canadian Prime Minister, himself in self-imposed isolation, has had to once again strongly reiterate to Canadians that, unless absolutely essential, they should “go home, and stay home.”

These are just a few of the examples of how people and governments are responding to the COVID-19 emergency. I hope that we can do much better in the coming weeks and months!  For the time being, like a lot of citizens, I am now practicing “social distancing” from home while greatly appreciating the work of those who are essential workers caring for us, our loved ones and our neighbours.

Canada COVID-19 US

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Mar 23

Pandemic Has Serious Implications For The Mental Health Of Children

by bcurry

The schools have been shut down indefinitely. In place, where possible, children have been asked to participate in e-learning during these uncertain times.  Recreation facilities, including arenas, pools and playing fields, have been closed.  Many privately-funded extracurricular activities have been suspended.  Children, other than siblings, have been placed into social isolation and are unable to communicate with their friends and relatives except through social media.  Some of their parents have been laid off and/or forced to socially isolate from home.

Nothing of this magnitude and duration has ever happened in recent times, certainly not in my lifetime. While adults have developed certain coping mechanisms, children can still see and hear the resulting stress in our eyes and voices.  What is particularly difficult is the fact that the adults can offer no clear explanations or time lines for this outbreak.  Everyday we are bombarded with ongoing updates and disturbing news about the spread of this apparently unstoppable virus and the reactions of the authorities.  This is enough to cause serious anxiety among adults, never mind the children.

When all is said and done, the real casualties of the pandemic will be the mental health of children. To understand what happened, many children will ultimately require not only counselling, but treatment to deal with the traumatic outcomes of the war on COVID-19.  Interim measures such as social distancing are fine for now, but societies will have to implement longer-term help for their recovery and a return to some semblance of normality.  In the interim, what we as adults must do is to not only protect their physical health, but also take precautions regarding their mental health.  Give them the information that they need about the pandemic and avoid all the misinformation that exists out there.  Try to not candy coat the situation, but try not to overly alarm them.  Clearly, your reassurance and love is what they so terribly need right now and in the near future.  After all, as the old adage goes, the future is in our children.

Canada COVID-19 US

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Mar 18

The COVID-19 Global Pandemic Was Predictable Given Past Experiences

by bcurry

Years ago I read a book published in 2006 by Andrew Nikiforuk entitled “Pandemonium”. What is fascinating was that the author clearly and correctly outlined all of the factors which would lead to a future pandemic.  So here we are in 2020, which now has what must be the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.  He laid out the three primary conditions needed to foster a pandemic.  These were: “a just-in-time global economy, unprecedented urban crowding, and unparalleled human mobility.”  He noted that reports by several sources, including the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, concluded that a severe pandemic with a 2.5 percent death rate would “shock the economy” and turn the health-care system completely “upside down.”

Indeed, this is exactly what is happening world-wide. In both the U.S. and Canada, the health-care systems were already at full capacity — and even at over-capacity — because of the usual seasonal influenza outbreaks. The almost total shutdown of the Chinese economy has thrown a huge wrench into normal supply chains and seriously lowered China’s growth rate as the second largest economy in the world. The stock markets are tumbling and growing recession speculation is dominating financial news.  While China may appear to be slowly recovering from its outbreak because of its draconian measures, the rest of Asia, North America and Europe are now in the process of just starting to come to grips with the resulting economic and health impacts.

What’s most worrisome is the fact that we were so caught off guard by the pandemic’s emergence, despite our earlier experiences with avian flu and SARs. There are already shortages of testing kits, personal protective equipment and ventilators needed by health-care workers to do their jobs.  For now, the authorities’ strategy is primarily aimed at simply slowing down the spread of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of businesses, restricting or eliminating travel from other countries, and encouraging “social distancing” by people at large.  The hope is that such measures will limit exposure to the virus and allow the health-care system to cope with the more seriously infected patients.

What is particularly disappointing is the daily news coming out of the U.S.  There you have an administration that started out by understating the impact of the novel coronavirus and a President who even talked about it as a “hoax”.  For a country that is supposed to be an example and leader to the rest of the world, the U.S. has done anything but inspire confidence in its ability to tackle such a formidable foe. The result could be catastrophic for many Americans and for the rest of the world.  Simply calling the impact of the outbreak a “national emergency” may unfortunately be too little and too late for many Americans already in dire straits.

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Mar 14

From SARS to COVID-19, What Have We Learned?

by bcurry

Having lived through the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the early 2000s, I can safely say that we have learned about a good number of notable and useful factors which led to the current coronavirus global pandemic called COVID-19. Scientists had learned a great deal from the epidemic of SARS that began in November 2002 and ended in June 2003. Health researchers and authorities eventually came up with very sensitive diagnostic tests and new treatments to fight any further SARS outbreak, and the knowledge gained helped them find and treat previously undiagnosed human diseases caused by other coronaviruses.

We also learned that such viruses can quickly be transmitted across the globe because of international travel and trade. Our ability to cope with the impact of new viruses in our health care systems will be even more challenged by COVID-19 than was the case with SARS.  The fact that the new virus is so easily transmitted, makes its containment even more difficult.  For this reason, makeshift hospitals and quarantine centres will be needed to shore up a health system that has virtually no give. The most vulnerable, seniors and those with underlying health issues, will have to be particularly protected.  This time, a much broader community approach will have to taken in comparison to SARS which primarily hit frontline hospital and emergency services staff in North America. People are being asked to “socially distance” themselves and to self-isolate in the event that they become symptomatic or have been exposed to the virus.  Numerous countries, including Canada and the U.S., have enacted international travel restrictions and mass closures of sporting, entertainment, and other major events to limit the potential exposure to the virus. Unlike SARS, the economic impact of such measures will be severe and will lead to a global recession.

Governments are hoping that by closing down much of social and business activity, they will be able to mitigate the impact on the health system and provide more needed time for researchers to develop a vaccine and treatment for COVID-19. However, as we now know, doctors finally beat the deadly SARS, but it did not happen overnight.  Indeed, it took three years from the SARS outbreak for scientists to develop a simple therapy that promised to decrease the extraordinarily high death rate from the disease. At this time, no one really knows how long we will have to continue the shutdown of social and business activities in the battle against COVID-19.  On the ground, there are already greater concerns around supplies of gowns, gloves, masks, oxygen, drugs, ventilators, and laboratory capacity for virus testing than was in the case of SARS.

Since the outbreaks of COVID-19 are much more wide-spread than SARS, a greater national and global approach is required. Mitigation efforts must be more community based involving the cooperation of each and everyone of us.  By implementing social distancing and good hygiene practices, there is a good likelihood that Americans and Canadians can reduce the impact on our health care systems and the overall number of COVID-19 related fatalities.

Canada COVID-19 US

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Mar 9

As if in a “war”, we must prepare to battle COVID-19

by bcurry

With an estimated 100,000 people confirmed to have COVID-19 in a 100 countries, including over 500 cases in three dozen U.S. states, it’s time that countries begin to tackle the continuing spread of the virus as if it were a war. All essential resources at the federal, state, provincial and local levels must be diverted to preparing for the worst scenario.  Our policies need to shift from containment of an outbreak to “mitigation,” which means acknowledging that the tried-and-true public health measures of isolating the sick and quarantining their contacts are no longer enough. The virus is quickly spreading.  So steps must be taken to minimize deaths from the disease and to slow its spread so that hospitals are not overwhelmed.  Furthermore, priorities must be directed to protecting the most vulnerable, especially the elderly with underlying health conditions.

The first and foremost policy is to ensure that good and reliable information about the virus and prevention is made continuously to the public. Avenues of misinformation must be dealt with in order to avoid a panic and the hoarding of medical supplies by persons at less risk to the health impact of the virus.  Front line medical and other emergency personnel must be provided with the proper equipment and logistical support to deal with outbreaks.  Facilities must be set up to deal with extensive testing for COVID-19 and mandatory self-quarantine in homes or designated facilities must be enforced.

As in the cases of quarantining persons on military bases coming from cruise ships or hot spots who may have been exposed to the virus, the military may need to be activated to assist in enforcing policies and practices. Hot spots will have to be treated as if they were war zones.  No one is suggesting at this time that we shut down complete cities as was done in China, but various options will have to be considered to mitigate any larger local outbreaks. Hopefully, given timely and accurate information by the authorities, every citizen will do their share as part of an overall mitigation strategy.

COVID-19 has been in the U.S. and Canada for some time, and the likelihood of its spreading is certain. Much of the news lately has tended to concentrate on the global and domestic economic impacts.  However, the time has come to lay out coordinated and enhanced national strategies to combat this increasing threat to the public’s health at large, and the most vulnerable persons in particular.  Every available resource that countries have must be used to buy more time for the development of a vaccine and for the research to be done for treatments. Comforting words no longer suffice.  What one needs now is deliberate and speedy action.  After all, we are at war.

Canada COVID-19 US

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Mar 6

International Women’s Day and Wage Inequities Between Women and Men

by bcurry

March 8th is International Women’s Day which is observed annually around the globe. The Day is a powerful reminder to keep working hard on eliminating gender-based stereotypes while celebrating women’s achievements, creativity and strength.  It is also a day to recognize the fact that a lot more work is needed to be done to reduce and even eliminate inequities in employment wages and benefits received by women in comparison to men for work of equal value.

For years now Canadian working women have reported earning almost a quarter less than male counterparts despite strides by women attaining education and acceptance in higher-paying professions. A new pay equity study this past year by Leger Research shows that women took home an average pre-tax salary of $51,352 in 2019 compared with $67,704 for men — a 24 percent gap.  In addition, the study also found that men received more than twice the additional compensation of bonuses or profit sharing than women.  It should be noted that, according to a survey by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Canada’s gender wage gap in 2018 ranked 5th largest among 29 countries.  The OECD found that the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Israel had the highest disparities, while Belgium, Greece and Costa Rica the lowest.

The federal government and six Canadian provinces — Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Ontario and Quebec — have enacted pay equity legislation in an attempt to reduce pay inequities between men and women. Needless-to-say, Leger Research also found that traditional job identities persist with women outnumbering men by about four times in health care, while men are three times more prevalent in higher-paying technology/IT, finance and manufacturing jobs.  In addition, women are still overrepresented in part-time work and lower paying service jobs.  However, even where qualified women are working alongside men in the same profession, there are still discrepancies in pay levels and benefits, especially when it came to employers’ parental and child care leave provisions.

On March 8th, it is incumbent upon governments and businesses to recognize the on-going pay inequities faced by women in both Canada and the U.S.  As a society, we need to encourage and require employers to ensure that women are fairly rewarded for their work and societal contributions.  It is just the right thing to do, especially since our changing information economy will have a greater need for the participation of more highly educated and talented women and men.

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Feb 28

Canada is very likely heading into a major recession, especially in light of COVID-19

by bcurry

Canada’s growth slows to its weakest pace in almost four years as economic woes bite. Statistics Canada has now revised the third quarter annualized growth down to 1.1 per cent from an initial 1.3 per cent. In addition to recent rail and pipeline shutdowns and the slowdown in oil and gas and mining sectors, the Canadian economy is going to have to brace for the effects of COVID-19.  For example, Chinese tourists to Canada accounted for 7.3 per cent of our tourism receipts. Exports of iron, copper, lobsters and lumber are also at risk due to weaker demand from China. No one knows for sure how long the COVID-19 outbreaks will last and how severe it will be in North America. Given China’s current COVID-19 closures, global supply chains are being seriously impacted here and in Europe. Like the SARS outbreaks in 2003, some experts expect that COVID-19 could last anywhere from seven to eight more months.

The immediate economic impact this week has been on the stock markets with the Canadian TSX and the U.S. Dow losing its greatest amounts in one week since the Great Recession of 2008. With trillions of dollars loss in one week, nothing like this has been seen before and we are no longer simply talking about the expected stock market correction in Canada and in the U.S.

Over the past year, I have been warning of a possible recession because the very weak underlying factors around manufacturing and consumer spending. Instead, corporations have been using profits to pay shareholders and buy back company shares, instead of reinvesting in capital, R & D and labour.  Now, multinational enterprises like Apple, Hyundai and Samsung are seeing their Chinese supply chains shut down resulting in expected reduced future earnings.

The question for North American industries is what will happen should the COVID-19 virus spread to manufacturing plants and the service industries for example. COVID-19 is here and all one can do is to prepare for any possible pandemic.  Remember that the only way to contain the virus is through quarantine and isolating affecting individuals.  Should one employee test positive, an entire establishment may have to be closed and employees would be required to go into self-quarantine.  No one wants to exaggerate the threats, but one has to realize that the economic situation in Canada is already weak. COVID-19 could be the one major event to trigger a major recession in the coming months. Both Canadians and Americans need to be prepared for such an outcome.

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Feb 22

Use of Non-Violent Civil Disobedience by Anti-Pipeline Protesters

by bcurry

Throughout modern history we have seen examples of non-violent civil disobedience in the form of staged sit-ins, marches, blockades, hunger strikes and other tactics used to raise awareness about issues that are taking place in society. Among the best known examples are the movements led by people such as India’s Mahatma Gandhi, South Africa’s anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela and of course Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.  One of the main principles of civil disobedience is to maintain respect for the rule of law even while disobeying a specific law considered to be unjust.  In addition, those demonstrating peaceful civil disobedience were willing to go to jail without resisting arrest by the authorities.

In the last two weeks in Canada, one has seen protests by certain indigenous groups in support of members of the Wet’suwet’en nation opposed to the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline being built through their territory in British Columbia. Protesters attempted to illegally block the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline, forcing the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to enforce a court injunction against the blockade.  However, within the

Wet’suwet’en nation there are major divisions between elected Band leaders who support the project in terms of its economic benefits and some hereditary chiefs who oppose the project on the basis of protecting traditional lands.

The hereditary chiefs wanted the RCMP to leave their lands, which they are prepared to do. In support of the hereditary chiefs, protesters from various native groups blocked rail lines across the country, bringing passenger rail service and rail freight traffic to a halt during the past two weeks of blockades.  Freight rail service is said to have fallen by 18%, and hundreds of rail employees have been temporarily laid off.  Court injunctions were obtained against the blockades, but the authorities had as yet to move in to dismantle the barricades.  What is also interesting is that non-native anti-pipeline groups have taken the opportunity to join in these civil disobedience activities to promote their own causes.

Now that the federal government has exhausted consultations with those representing the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, there is a clear indication that the economy is being hurt by the rail shutdown. The time has come for the authorities to move in and dismantle the illegal blockades, hopefully in a non-violent manner.  Since part of civil disobedience is the real possibility of being arrested and jailed, the protesters — both native and non-native — have to be willing to end up in jail.  Violent resistance is not among the principles governing the use of civil disobedience.  It is now up to the protesters to confirm their adherence to those principles and either dismantle the blockades or be arrested.  Not doing so will only hurt their stated causes and loose any public support and possibly even the support of many native peoples.  The federal government has made it clear that it remains willing to continue its reconciliation policies and initiatives with indigenous peoples.  The protesters, whether you choose to agree or disagree, have made their point.  Further hurting people across the country is not the way to go!

Canada Native Issues

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Feb 14

Treating Tweets By Donald Trump As Gospel And The Impact on Governance

by bcurry

At no time in American Presidential history has technology created serious concerns regarding the separation of powers and the obstruction of justice. When the American President tweets out something, his administration, his followers and the general public treat it as gospel.  Gone are the normal press conferences of the past, only to be replaced instead by tweets and short media scrums.  The problem is over how to draw a line between the ad hoc public declarations of the President and perceived interference in the justice system.  Remember, the justice system is expected to be an independent part of governance and rightly so.  Besides Congress and the Executive, the justice system through its various branches is designed to ensure independence and impartiality in its decision making processes and in enforcement of the law.

However, Attorney General William Barr has now stated that President Trump’s criticisms of the handling of his friend Roger Stone’s sentencing has undermined the legal system, and he is not able to do his important job. Although there may be no direct evidence of interference by Trump, his tweeted assertions that the Justice Department’s Prosecutors’ push for a sentence of up to nine years for Stone’s convictions was too harsh could only be perceived as an attempt to influence the Attorney General.  Subsequently, the AG decided to overrule his own prosecutors and withdraw the sentencing recommendation, giving the appearance of caving in to Presidential pressure.  Instead, the AG’s office suggested that the prosecutors instead lay out factors for Judge Amy Berman Jackson to consider in sentencing Mr. Stone but defer to her on the length of the final sentence. With this outcome, the four prosecutors resigned from the case in protest, with one actually leaving the Justice Department.

As the New York Times notes, speaking up could have put Mr. Barr at risk of losing the backing of the President, but remaining silent would have permitted Trump to continue attacking law enforcement and all but invited open revolt among the some 115,000 employees of the Justice Department. Previously, the President had made it difficult for Mr. Barr to maintain the appearance of independence, threatening the AG’s credibility by repeatedly calling for federal investigations of Trump’s perceived enemies.  Trump had suggested to the president of Ukraine that he work with Mr. Barr and the President’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani to investigate for personal political benefit some of Mr. Trump’s political opponents: i.e. Joe Biden and his son. This action of course formed the whole basis for the impeachment hearings and trial against Trump in Congress.

Even more serious, is the fact that public statements by any President, in whatever format, are considered as the administration’s official position. Despite the fact that the President’s staff often is forced to follow up with a further explanation of just what the President’s assertion was, Trump’s initial tweet will always be taken by his followers as gospel.  This may play well with Trump’s base of support, but will often undermine the credibility and sanctity of the three separate legs of governance and democracy.  Even the Republicans in Congress are now beginning to realize that the powers of the President have to be restrained as intended under the Constitution, given the importance of the intended checks and balances provided by the three arms of government.

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Feb 8

Trump Administration’s “Industrial Militarism” Highlighted In Attack on China’s Huawei

by bcurry

Nowhere is it more clearly demonstrated that President Trump is using industrial clout to carry out “industrial militarism” than in his attack on Huawei to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. 5G stands for fifth-generation networks which are essentially a faster and more reliable version of wireless connectivity and mark a massive leap forward in such wireless technology.  Numerous industrialized countries are moving to build a 5G network, such as Canada whose 5G network could be in place around 2020. Huawei is the largest global company in 5G development and installation and is involved in 140-plus countries around the world. In Canada, companies such as Telus and BCE, or Bell Canada, are partnering to build 5G technology along with Huawei. Their Canadian rival, Rogers, is working alongside Swedish telecom Ericsson— a main Huawei rival. As a result, Ottawa has come under increasing pressure from the U.S. to block Huawei from developing its 5G technology in Canada, as critics warn it could present a national security risk.

Recently, U.S. Attorney General William Barr made the case for an all-out economic war on China’s Huawei in order to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. He even called on America’s “allies” to join what amounts not only an international strategic offensive against Huawei but also against China itself. He further suggested that the U.S. and its allies, including Canada and Britain, align their financial and technological forces to support European firms, Nokia and Ericsson, Huawei’s major 5G competitors. By getting governments to become involved in a business sector, such as the telecom sector, this position would contradict the traditional American principle of supporting free-market enterprise.  It would be blatantly perceived as causing a geo-strategic economic confrontation with China, similar to what occurred during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

So far, a number of countries, including Canada and Britain, have rejected the idea of participating in any U.S. takeover of Nokia and/or Ericsson. Interestingly, although use of Huawei equipment has been banned in the U.S. since 2012 over fears it’s a security risk, some two dozen U.S. telecom companies have used Huawei’s equipment to provide services in remote regions. In Canada, a number of communities in provinces such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan, are using Huawei equipment to service non-core 4G in rural regions in particular. So far, there is no evidence that China has used network equipment for cyber-espionage.

As critics of “industrial militarism” argue, is it really up to Americans to fight the People’s Republic of China and its authoritarian regime — with its state-run enterprises and dirigiste economic policies — by adopting some of the same statist interventions? As one expert rightly noted, an extended trade war between the U.S. and China and threats by Trump to ban certain Chinese tech firms from the American supply chain, could further divide the global tech scene. Left unchanged, that could result in a world where technological progress among countries is far less uniform, cost-effective and integrated.  In Canada, competition in the telecom sector is alive and well. Huawei, Swedish telecom Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung and others are all being allowed to compete freely in pursuit of the lucrative market.  This is expected to greatly improve telecom services to Canadian consumers, especially in rural and remote regions.

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