FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Nov 25

The President Knows Better Than Even His Own Experts on Climate Change!

by bcurry

Under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II was recently released.  Thirteen American government departments and agencies, from the Agriculture Department to NASA, were part of the committee that compiled the new report.  Like other similar reports, the White House dismissed the congressionally mandated report as inaccurate. However, this expert report may be a little more difficult to ignore given recent environmental disasters that have occurred in the U.S. and elsewhere. Let’s take a quick look at some of the report’s summary conclusions:

  • More frequent and intense extreme weather and climate-related events, as well as changes in average climate conditions, are expected to continue to damage infrastructure, ecosystems, and social systems that provide essential benefits to communities.
  • Regional economies and industries that depend on natural resources and favourable climate conditions, such as agriculture, tourism, and fisheries, are vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change.
  • Rising air and water temperatures and changes in precipitation are intensifying droughts, increasing heavy downpours, reducing snowpack, and causing declines in surface water quality, with varying impacts across regions.
  • Climate change is also projected to alter the geographic range and distribution of disease-carrying insects and pests, exposing more people to ticks that carry Lyme disease and mosquitoes that transmit viruses such as Zika, West Nile, and dengue, with varying impacts across regions.
  • Climate change has already had observable impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the benefits they provide to society.
  • An aging and deteriorating infrastructure is further stressed by increases in heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, heat, wildfires, and other extreme events, as well as changes to average pre­cipitation and temperature.
  • Rising water temperatures, ocean acidification, retreating arctic sea ice, sea level rise, high-tide flooding, coastal erosion, higher storm surge, and heavier precipitation events threaten our oceans and coasts.
  • Outdoor recreation, tourist economies, and quality of life reliant on benefits provided by our natural environment will be degraded by the impacts of climate change in many ways.

Scientists have once again demonstrated this past year that much of the impact on climate change is caused by man-made emissions, especially that resulting from older technologies using fuels such as coal and oil for producing energy. These conclusions are obviously at odds with the Trump administration’s pro-fossil-fuels agenda.  What this report illustrates is that the economic consequences of continuing on the administration’s course of action are extremely serious, far outweighing any costs to businesses and the economy as a result of implementing policies in support of promoting green technologies and penalizing emitters of greenhouse-gases.

As it is, we will all have to begin to adapt in the short-term to the existing impact of climate change by upgrading our infrastructures, altering our agricultural production and introducing more green technologies. Climate change is a massive threat to long-term growth, and the most economically efficient way of avoiding it is a wide tax on greenhouse-gas emissions. This will force industries and consumers to reduce emissions over time.  Some people will argue that it may already be too late, forcing us to simply adapt to climate change at great immediate cost to everyone.  However, I would argue that drastic circumstances such as those highlighted in the report call for more drastic measures sooner rather than later — not only regionally but globally.  What we need is real honest leadership and vision, not unreal excuses.  We owe it to future generations.

Cimate Change Climate Change Coal Donald Trump Leadership US

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Nov 1

Right-Wing Extremism Is A Growing Concern In North American Communities

by bcurry

On October 27th of this year, the deadliest attack on Jews in the history of the United States took place at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. This horrendous event is being treated as a hate crime against Jews.  On January 29, 2017, a young male fatally shot six people at a mosque in Quebec City’s Sainte-Foy neighbourhood. This was also seen by authorities as a hate crime against Muslims. In both cases, the shooters were influenced one way or another by right-wing extremism. On August 11, 2018, several Montrealers joined an ultra-right torch march through Charlottesville, Virginia, blending into a crowd that chanted ‘Blood and soil’ and ‘Jews will not replace us’. The participating Canadians were suspected as being connected to a neo-Nazis movement in North America and involved with La Meute, the largest far-right organization in Quebec.

The current Liberal government in Canada is so concerned about the rise in far-right movements in Canada that it has committed to providing $23 million over two years for multicultural programs and cross-country consultations on racism. Moreover, police-reported hate crimes have been on the rise in recent years in both countries.  For example, anti-Semitic incidents rose more than 50 percent in 2017 in the U.S. Hundreds of far-right groups with thousands of active members in Canada and the U.S. have been growing online and offline. Unfortunately, statements by President Trump and the tone set at his campaign rallies have done nothing to discourage the activities of far-right groups who are primarily responsible for hate crimes against Muslims, Jews and migrants.

One of the lasting effects of the violence in Charlottesville was its blow to the far-right’s ability to raise money and spread propaganda online. The follow-up exposure of the Quebec participants revealed their identities, ended up in some losing their jobs and friends, and forced them to drop out of the movement. Anti-fascist groups have also increasingly emerged to demonstrate against ultra-right extremists wherever they appear, sometimes unfortunately resulting in violent confrontations.  The fact is that there is a fine line between protecting ‘free speech’ and preventing ‘hate speech’.

Nevertheless, it would appear that the majority of Americans and Canadians want their governments to take a stronger stance against extremism, no matter what kind. However, the emergence of ultra-right extremism and resulting increases in hate crimes against particular groups have become a major concern for authorities on both sides of the border.  As citizens, we also have to remain vigilant and aware of hate-related activities within our communities.  As evidenced in Charlottesville, Pittsburgh and Quebec City, no community is immune to the influence of militant extremist groups, especially the young and vulnerable. By promoting love, respect and tolerance, each of us must do whatever it takes to address any groups promoting hate in our communities.  We cannot afford to ignore the existence of extremism.

Canada Extremism Race Relations Racism Terrorism US

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Oct 22

The Global Arms Trade Will Always Overshadow Human Rights

by bcurry

There is a lot of international outrage over the killing by Saudi Arabian agents of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. There has also been anger by human rights groups against the Saudis over atrocities committed against the people in Yemen, mainly with the use of Western supplied military equipment, ammunition and bombs.  To no one’s surprise, President Trump was slow to condemn the Saudis in the murder of Khashoggi, especially in light of over $8 billion in weapons purchases from the U.S.  In 2013, concerns had previously been raised about Canada’s decision to sell armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia, which reportedly used them to help crack down on protesters in neighbouring Bahrain during the 2011 Arab Spring. Given that the production of the light armoured vehicles comes from a plant in London, Ontario, the Canadian government today continues to supply them to Saudi Arabia on a contract worth between $13 and $15 billion, despite that country’s recent well documented human rights abuses. Unfortunately, the previous Conservative government under Prime Minister Harper used the sale as an initial start to transform Canada into a global arms dealer. Canada began looking to the Middle East and South America for potential contracts as the U.S., Britain and other traditional customers cut defence spending.

The global arms trade represents a multi-billion dollar industry, involving most advanced countries who are particularly interested in selling weapons to developing countries. This especially includes weapons sold from several key countries.  Russia, as a dominant power in the global arms market, saw orders for its weapons totaling over $11 billion in sales in 2015. Latin American nations, in particular Venezuela, had become a focus of marketing for Russian arms.  In the same year, China reached $6 billion in weapons sales, up from its 2014 total of over $3 billion.  Also, among arms manufacturers that are NATO allies, Germany has found success in marketing naval systems to the developing world.  Britain has done the same with warplanes, and France weapons deals increased by well over $9 billion. Other major global arms suppliers are Sweden, Italy, Turkey, and Israel. The U.S. ranked first in global weapons sales in 2015, signing deals for about $40 billion, or half of all agreements in the worldwide arms bazaar.

Canada remains the only member of NATO and the G7 that has not signed the United Nations Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which aims to regulate the trade in armaments — from handguns to tanks.  In 2018, Canada’s Federal Government finally introduced proposed legislation to join the ATT. However, Parliamentary opposition argue the bill contains no assurances that the weapons could not then be transferred to countries that abuse human rights, including Saudi Arabia.

President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau are typical of leaders who have no scruples about selling weapons to countries with poor human rights records. Is it enough to say that stopping the flow of arms to Saudi Arabia is not an option, since other countries will simply step in to fill the gap — thereby depriving both countries of manufacturing jobs and billions in contracts? Despite the ATT, this position is why the global arms trade will continue to overshadow human rights.

Arms Trade Arms Trade Treaty Canada The Middle East US

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Oct 10

Maybe It’s Too Late To Realistically Deal With Climate Change?

by bcurry

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), composed of environmental experts and scientists from around the world, just released a report on climate change. The report concludes that the world has just over a decade to get climate change under control, or else.  Moreover, the IPCC notes that the overall reductions in annual carbon dioxide emissions in the next decade would probably need to be more than 1 billion tons per year, larger than the current emissions of all but a few of the very largest emitting countries. By 2050, the report calls for a total or near-total phase out of the burning of coal, something President Trump insists on preserving.

By contrast, we have the second largest emitter, the U.S., rolling back a suite of Obama-era climate measures. As a result, the prospects for meeting the most ambitious goals of the 2015 Paris agreement look increasingly slim.  In Canada, the Federal Government intends to introduce a carbon tax next year, but is facing strong opposition from certain provinces such as Ontario and Manitoba.  Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford’s signal achievement in his first 100 days in office has been to kill the province’s climate-change policy and replace it with promises involving few details.  Furthermore, he has cancelled the previous provincial government’s cap and trade program designed to encourage industries to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions.

Instead, some administrations are foregoing green technologies and carbon taxes in the name of maintaining jobs and stimulating economies. The problem is that globally we are now facing more extreme weather patterns, ranging from droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes and fierce storms with heavy precipitation.  The results are increased numbers of forest fires, coastal flooding, crop damage, permafrost thaw and the spread of diseases by migrating insects.  However, one could argue that there is an employment creation aspect in the form of more jobs for fire fighters, emergency workers, restoration contractors, insurance agents, meteorologists, etc., etc.

While other countries are changing their energy and transportation policies to take advantage of green technologies, including renewable energy sources, the U.S. and parts of Canada are unfortunately trying to maintain the status quo. Tackling issues related to climate change should be our first priority.  We can no longer afford to support regressive environmental policies, because the eventual societal costs will far outweigh the costs associated with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The only question that I have to ask is whether it may already be too late?  Let’s hope not for the sake of future generations!

Cimate Change Climate Change US

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Sep 28

What’s Sad — It’s Still An Old Boys’ Club In The U.S. Congress!

by bcurry

Watching Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh testifying on September 27th before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee really brought home the image of the Senate as still being an old boys’ club.  There you had a cast of old Republican senators sitting in judgement of Dr. Ford, preferring to have hired an Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell to ask questions on their behalf. This was of course a political stunt to avoid giving the impression of a bunch of old guys ganging up on a woman.  What’s worse, the whole circus was conducted as if it were a criminal trial instead of a Supreme Court confirmation hearing.

This event brings me back to a recent study by the Pew Research Center in the U.S. which looked at the proportion of women to men in senior positions in governors’ seats, state legislatures, Congress, businesses and education institutions. What the study found is that only 20 percent of Congress is women, although women make up over half of the American population.  Women represent about 22 percent of senators.  The density of women in the House of Representatives is just below 1 in 5.  In both cases, most women are Democrats.  Hopefully, there could be more than 60 women who assume new seats in Congress after this November midterms — most of those women being Democrats. In addition, the Center found that Democratic presidents have had more heavily female Cabinets than Republican administrations.  There are far fewer women in Trump’s Cabinet than there were in Obama’s.

Other Western countries have achieved much more equality of government representation than the U.S., and even Canada. Moreover, Judge Kavanaugh comes from a primarily white male environment, attending the right prep schools and having the accepted middle-class conservative pedigree.  What’s there not to like, especially within the old boys’ club in Washington.  There are currently only three female associate judges on the nine member Supreme Court, with the one existing vacancy.  Just for once, maybe the President could have considered nominating another respected female jurist to the Supreme Court, conservative or otherwise.  However, unfortunately we know what Donald Trump thinks about women!

Donald Trump Federal Government US US Politics Women's Issues

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Sep 21

Are We Heading Towards Another Global Recession?

by bcurry

After following numerous financial experts and economists aligned with various reliable sources, it has become clear that there is no real agreement or consensus on what will happen to the global economy in the next year. Ten years after the great recession, everyone agrees that the economies of most countries have bounced back, but are still somewhat tenuous.

But then comes along President Trump and his protectionist policies, including tariffs on products from China, Canada and the E.U. The trade war with China is especially dangerous. We must not forget that the continuous upsurge in the Chinese economy and their fiscal-monetary policies helped many economies to recover after 2008.  However, the Chinese economy’s growth has slowed down and trade is less a factor than it was 10 years ago.

Domestic corporate, government and consumer debt has climbed in most industrialized countries, including in the U.S. and Canada. Much of the debt increase has of course resulted from the continuing low-interest rates for borrowing used to stimulate economies, but potentially at a considerable future cost.  At the same time, any significant growth in wages has not occurred, leaving many people to rely on debt to maintain current standards of living.  The richest people have greatly benefited from capital tax policies and by corporations who have preferred to benefit their shareholders.  Most companies have also paid out big executive bonuses rather than reinvesting profits into their firms and R&D.  In the U.S., executive compensation now represents more than 400 percent of the average worker’s annual wages.

As if in some kind of self-denial, stock markets have continued to climb despite a number of recent ominous economic signs. Given that we are in unknown territory with little room for manoeuvrability, even central banks appear to be at a lost as to what to do next.  Most experts agree that there needs to be a major market correction given that the value of many stocks is out of whack with reality.  In addition, the economies of E.U. countries are still in turmoil, especially with Britain’s decision to leave the Union and other members possibly following suit. Moreover, all you and I can do is sit and wait and hope for the best.  After all, we don’t have the power of the American President to influence the global economy.

China Donald Trump Global Economy Protectionist Trade Policies US

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Sep 10

Populist Movement is on the Rise in Europe — Watch Out!

by bcurry

Populism is not easy to define since the roots of its success are varied, and its adherents do not represent a single ideology, even if they all criticize uncontrolled migration, especially of Muslims. However, the Europe Union (EU) is seeing a rise of populist movements in one form or another, unfortunately much of the ultra-right, nationalist and anti-migrant variety.  Four countries of the EU’s east that make one anxious — Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia — are all now led by populists of one stripe or another.  Last year in Austria, Sebastian Kurz became chancellor after running a populist campaign that even co-opted the anti-immigration message of the far-right Austrian Freedom Party.  He wants to place EU border guards in Africa in an effort to stop migrants from crossing the Mediterranean.

Even in the socialist democracy of Sweden, there is a growing right-wing populist movement. Supported by almost 20 percent of voters, the Sweden Democrats, a nationalist party with neo-Nazi roots, made major gains in the elections held on September 9th.  The party’s platform is representative of those of other European populist parties.  They focus overwhelmingly on migrants, mainly from Muslim countries, who they blame for a surge in sex attacks on women, riots in the suburbs and extra pressure on the welfare system.  They also want to follow Britain out of the EU.

This follows earlier election results this year in Italy where about half of the Italian electorate voted for populist parties once considered fringe. Italian voters appear to be disaffected and angry, fearful of hundreds of thousands of recently arrived migrants from the other side of the Mediterranean and fed up with a lack of opportunities, the perceived corruption of elites and the inefficacy of the ruling centrist government.  However, the fact that Italy has vast economic problems — including the largest public debt in the EU and very high youth unemployment — may have more to do with the rise in its populist movement.

Other EU countries are by no means out of the woods. President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany are in a tough fight politically to deal with the growth of populism within their own countries.  They both need support for fixing Europe’s fractured asylum and migration policies which are behind much of the popularity of the populist movements.  Unfortunately, the former region of East Germany has recently seen ultra-right neo-Nazi demonstrations which are illegal under existing German law.

In the meantime, while all this is going on in Europe, populist movements continue to grow politically in the U.S. and Canada following the election of President Trump. Moreover, Canada has recently seen the emergence of populist politics in some provincial electoral campaigns. Even at the federal level there is the potential of a new party questioning current support for policies encouraging multiculturalism and diversity.  Watch out Canada! Just pay attention to what’s happening south of our border and in Europe.

Canada European Populism Populism in Canada US

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Aug 31

Trump’s Trade War With China Can Only Increase Global Economic Concerns

by bcurry

President Donald Trump wants to move ahead with a plan to impose additional tariffs worth US$200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as a public-comment period concludes on September 6th.  The action is likely to further unnerve financial markets that have been concerned about the growing tensions. Stocks fell on the news, with the S&P 500 testing the key 2,900 level. The offshore yuan dropped to a new low, while the dollar and the yen gained amid a flight to safety. As in the case of the earlier imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, the proposed tariffs are bound to affect other countries. The tariff news exacerbated already fragile market sentiment amid currency routs in Argentina and Turkey. In addition, American consumers will feel the effects in the form of more expensive manufactured and other goods imported from China.

Yes, while there are some concerns about China’s trade policies in the past, copyright infringements on some products, and restrictions on foreign investment in the country, I’m not sure that Trump’s negotiating tactics are necessarily the best way to deal with these issues. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it very clear that China will not be bullied into any trade agreement with the U.S.  In addition, the full impact of a trade war has yet to happen in the U.S.  How many sectors and industries will the administration have to provide public funds to offset the economic impact, as was done recently in the agricultural sector?  Who pays for this?

China, like Russia and some other countries, is already moving away from using the American dollar as a primary currency used in foreign trade. As well, China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the U.S. to sell its products, can take the hit much better than the U.S.  This is especially true as the U.S. has started trade disputes on several fronts at the same time, such as with Europe and Canada.  Most of China’s products imported to the States, and there are many of them, still won’t have any tariffs on them at this time.  Many American businesses depend heavily on global supply chains, such as China, in order to remain competitive and viable.

Since Donald Trump’s election, the Chinese, including its banks, had made earlier concessions of foreign investment and the lowering of tariffs on imported cars. It would appear that a thoughtful, reciprocal and incremental approach to trade negotiations would have made more sense for all concerned.  Instead, we have an American President who says that “trade wars are good”. I’m not so sure.  Are you?

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Aug 17

Mid Summer Madness of the Trump Regime – Summer of 2018

by bcurry

In recent months, actions and tweets by President Trump have become even more erratic and unpredictable than usual. His bizarre behaviour may lead some people to believe that he is suffering from heat stroke.  Let’s review what he’s been up to this past summer:

  • As a reprisal against Turkey for jailing one lone American citizen, the S. levied harsh sanctions against this NATO ally which threaten the derail that country’s economy or drive Turkey into Vladimir Putin’s circle of influence.
  • The President said local politicians “wanted a number so ridiculously high”, around $92 Million, that he canceled a planned military parade that the Pentagon had already postponed until next year. He blamed Washington officials for inflating expected costs for an unwanted parade.
  • Trump revoked former national security advisor John Brennan’s security clearance, which may be the latest sign that the president is determined to punish anyone connected to the Russia investigation. Kind of reminds one of the Richard Nixon days and the political “revenge” factor.
  • The President referred to one of his former White House staff, Amarosa Manigault Newman, as being a “dog”, in anticipation of her soon to be released book, “Unhinged”. His office also denied unconvincingly that he had never used the “N” word, a charge made by Ms. Manigault Newman.
  • He has threatened to impose tariffs on automobiles assembled abroad and on automotive parts, something that the auto industry has warned would cause all kinds of havoc and productivity losses.
  • His administration has threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods, causing major problems for U.S. supply retail and manufacturing chains.
  • Over 300 news media have issued a statement that the continued reference to “fake news” by the President is threatening to undermine the freedom of the press.
  • Etc., etc.

Yes Mr. President, it’s been a hot summer. Your administration is in constant turmoil with contradictions and outright lies flying everywhere — signs of continuing disarray. Unfortunately, when the U.S. sneezes, most other countries tend to catch a cold. The state of the world economy and politics is at stake.  Maybe it’s time to get off the ongoing campaign trail and act more Presidential.  Every tweet and personal attack now causes further consternation and disdain among Americans and allies abroad.

The summer is coming to an end, and one can only hope that the fall will bring better things. The big question is whether the November elections will bring a gust of fresh air.  It’s time for Americans to respond and support democracy by voting.  Let’s hope that common sense prevails, and the President stops acting like a mini-Musollini.

Donald Trump Uncategorized US Politics

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Jul 26

If Tariffs Are “So Great”, How Come Trump Appears To Be Backing Off?

by bcurry

President Donald Trump backed off his threat to levy tariffs on cars imported to the U.S. from the E.U. during a recent meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. It appears that Trump had warned that he would move forward with 25 percent tariffs on auto imports if the meeting with Juncker didn’t go well, prompting the E.U. to respond that such a move would bring significant retaliatory measures on U.S. goods. Wow!  Now Trump indicates that he’s willing to open up further trade negotiations with the E.U.

Trump has also tweeted that his administration is considering introducing tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico, much to the displeasure of the American auto industry. You see, in today’s world, many auto parts are supplied from sources outside the U.S.  Indeed, the average Big Three vehicle is comprised of anywhere between 40 to 60 percent of parts manufactured outside the country.  American auto tariffs will simply disrupt the supply chain, reduce efficiencies, increase costs, cause a major downturn in the industry, and eventually increase the costs of all vehicles to American consumers.

American tariffs on Chinese goods, including steel and aluminum, are already having an impact on the agricultural sector, especially on soybean exports. As a result, Trump has pledged $12 billion to farmers to help ease trade pain caused by tariffs aimed at China which had retaliated against U.S. farm products. However, farmers have made it clear that they don’t want handouts, but prefer to be able to sell their products and are concerned about the long-term damage caused by tariffs.

As for negotiating separate trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, the chances are pretty slim that either country would agree to do so. Mexican and Canadian officials have reiterated that talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will remain a three-way negotiation. Canada has a strong participant in Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland who has proven to be an excellent representative from the Canadian Cabinet. She has made it very clear that Canada is working to obtain a modern NAFTA which is fair and beneficial to all three countries. Minister Freeland met with Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who will take office on Dec. 1rst, and was given assurance that Mexico also has the same objectives for a trilateral trade agreement.

I firmly believe that President Trump has underestimated just how much the E.U., China, Mexico and Canada are willing to go to protect their interests and promote free trade. Before the terrible and costly consequences of international trade wars happen, I would suggest that the President take a close look at his strategy and consider backing off even more.  I’m sure even the Republicans, who historically promoted free trade as opposed to protectionism, would very much support such a move.  We can only hope.

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Protectionism Protectionist Trade Policies US

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