FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Feb 8

Trump Administration’s “Industrial Militarism” Highlighted In Attack on China’s Huawei

by bcurry

Nowhere is it more clearly demonstrated that President Trump is using industrial clout to carry out “industrial militarism” than in his attack on Huawei to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. 5G stands for fifth-generation networks which are essentially a faster and more reliable version of wireless connectivity and mark a massive leap forward in such wireless technology.  Numerous industrialized countries are moving to build a 5G network, such as Canada whose 5G network could be in place around 2020. Huawei is the largest global company in 5G development and installation and is involved in 140-plus countries around the world. In Canada, companies such as Telus and BCE, or Bell Canada, are partnering to build 5G technology along with Huawei. Their Canadian rival, Rogers, is working alongside Swedish telecom Ericsson— a main Huawei rival. As a result, Ottawa has come under increasing pressure from the U.S. to block Huawei from developing its 5G technology in Canada, as critics warn it could present a national security risk.

Recently, U.S. Attorney General William Barr made the case for an all-out economic war on China’s Huawei in order to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. He even called on America’s “allies” to join what amounts not only an international strategic offensive against Huawei but also against China itself. He further suggested that the U.S. and its allies, including Canada and Britain, align their financial and technological forces to support European firms, Nokia and Ericsson, Huawei’s major 5G competitors. By getting governments to become involved in a business sector, such as the telecom sector, this position would contradict the traditional American principle of supporting free-market enterprise.  It would be blatantly perceived as causing a geo-strategic economic confrontation with China, similar to what occurred during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

So far, a number of countries, including Canada and Britain, have rejected the idea of participating in any U.S. takeover of Nokia and/or Ericsson. Interestingly, although use of Huawei equipment has been banned in the U.S. since 2012 over fears it’s a security risk, some two dozen U.S. telecom companies have used Huawei’s equipment to provide services in remote regions. In Canada, a number of communities in provinces such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan, are using Huawei equipment to service non-core 4G in rural regions in particular. So far, there is no evidence that China has used network equipment for cyber-espionage.

As critics of “industrial militarism” argue, is it really up to Americans to fight the People’s Republic of China and its authoritarian regime — with its state-run enterprises and dirigiste economic policies — by adopting some of the same statist interventions? As one expert rightly noted, an extended trade war between the U.S. and China and threats by Trump to ban certain Chinese tech firms from the American supply chain, could further divide the global tech scene. Left unchanged, that could result in a world where technological progress among countries is far less uniform, cost-effective and integrated.  In Canada, competition in the telecom sector is alive and well. Huawei, Swedish telecom Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung and others are all being allowed to compete freely in pursuit of the lucrative market.  This is expected to greatly improve telecom services to Canadian consumers, especially in rural and remote regions.

Canada China Foreign Policy Telecom Sector US

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Dec 9

Accusing Canada of Not Living Up to Its NATO Commitments is Overkill

by bcurry

Canada has roughly the same population (approx. 36 million people) as the state of California. Despite this, Canada has a long and proud military history — having significantly contributed citizens and materials to two World Wars and more recently to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) involvement in Afghanistan and Latvia. With a relatively small number of regular military personnel who are well armed and trained, Canada has contributed to numerous peace time operations of both NATO and the United Nations.

At a NATO summit in Wales in 2014, NATO nations for some arbitrary reason agreed to the target measurement of 2 per cent of a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for its total defence spending. Canada currently spends about 1.31 per cent of GDP on defence. However, tabulate the defence dollars actually being spent on the military and Canada ranks an impressive sixth among the 29 NATO nations. A number of expert observers have agreed that NATO’s defence budget formula is very flawed, and allows small obscure countries like Bulgaria and Estonia to declare that they are more than meeting the 2 per cent target. In such cases, the purchase of a new ship or aircraft and one can easily surpass this GDP target. However, these and other similar countries contribute little in actual on-the-ground NATO support or suffer casualties as Canada did in Afghanistan.

So along comes Donald Trump who threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO if all its members didn’t meet the 2 per cent of GDP target. The U.S., as a so-called super power and having its own foreign policy objectives backed up by an immense military-industrial establishment, now spends 3.42 per cent of its GDP on defence. Little surprise there, especially given vast American operations in the Middle East, South-East Asian seas and Afghanistan. For Trump to say that NATO is “obsolete” and frequently compliment Russian President Vladimir Putin are both absurd and even dangerous. After Russia’s “illegal annexation” of Crimea, NATO spoke of its solidarity with the Ukraine. Someone has to stand up to Russian aggression — if not NATO then who?

As part of its commitment to national security and to NATO, Canada is due to embark on major expenditures on fighter jets and the navy. Whether or not Canada meets some arbitrary target in defence spending is not all that critical. What is, is the country’s need to maintain a professional, prepared and well trained military.  I fully believe that the brave and competent men and women of Canada’s armed forces will continue to uphold the country’s proud military heritage. Something that the likes of Donald Trump cannot and will not fully appreciate.

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Military Prowess NATO Ukraine US

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Dec 2

Canada and U.S. Need to Consult More on How to Manage Artic Waters

by bcurry

Increasingly, the Artic waterways are open for a longer period to limited shipping, including commercial vessels, due to the impact of climate change in warming the oceans’ waters. For years, the former Soviet Union and now Russia have been building a greater capacity to travel through the Northwest Passage, even when the ice is still fairly thick. North of Russia shipping from Europe to Asia now takes place on an intermittent basis. Russia is far ahead of both Canada and the U.S. in creating ice-breaking capacity and particularly in the building of large nuclear-powered icebreakers. Currently the U.S. has two heavy icebreakers that are in their last days of service, and no new replacements are under construction at this time. Under a previous Conservative government, Canada proposed building a heavy polar icebreaker, but almost no progress has been made toward its actual construction.

Besides the potential natural resources that the Artic has, the Artic waters are of an important strategic value, militarily and politically, to both Canada and the U.S.  This year Canada released a comprehensive Arctic policy framework that places the emphasis for future development on civilian development. However, Canadian policy does not address Arctic shipping concerns.  This certainly is not a way to reinforce Canadian sovereignty off our Arctic coast.  Alaska’s two senators, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, recently proposed the creation of an Arctic Shipping Federal Advisory Committee to centralize discussions about shipping in Alaskan waters.

I would go one step further and suggest that a joint North American body needs to be created, just as we have one for common defense concerns in the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the International Joint Commission (IJC) to deal with mutual issues involving the Great Lakes waterways, commercial shipping and environmental concerns. Not only do we need to monitor Russian activities in Artic waters, but both countries can better coordinate investments in the creation of an ‘Artic seaway’ and the development of Artic ports.

At this time, neither Canada nor the United States has much to offer in the event of a maritime disaster in North American Arctic waters. Isn’t it about time that both countries get together to share resources and expertise to counter the growing Russian influence in Artic waters.  Instead of investing in military capabilities in outer space, it might be wiser to invest more resources right here on earth where more immediate and important needs must be addressed.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Military Prowess US

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Oct 8

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is A Complete And Utter Flop

by bcurry

Just hours after President Trump declared that American troops were being withdrawn from the Syrian border, he warned Turkey that he would “totally destroy and obliterate” the economy of Turkey if he’s unhappy with how the country carries out its planned assault on Kurdish fighters. Indeed, what Trump has done is a betrayal and abandonment of the Kurds who, with U.S. backing, have been fearlessly fighting the Islamist radicals of ISIS in northern Syria. Both Democrats and Republicans have condemned the move as irresponsible and dangerous, leaving the Kurds to worry about a war with the more powerful Turkey and an inability to deal with the thousands of ISIS members interned in Syria. Some have even suggested that ISIS may re-emerge under the circumstances.

This is just another example of Trump’s lack of good judgement and his inability to appreciate the consequences of his foreign policies to date. Take North Korea for example, we now have a situation where nothing has happened since the talks between President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un broke down. Indeed, the meetings only helped to legitimatize Kim’s regime on the world stage, while allowing him to continue testing missiles capable of reaching most Asian countries.  There are also suspected hidden nuclear fuel production sites around the country.

With respect to the European Union (EU), Brexit and the Ukraine, Trump has interfered on a number of occasions, upsetting his NATO and European allies. He has instead aligned himself with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and dropped out of nuclear missile treaty with Russia, which is what Russia wanted all along. Trump is far too close to Putin, particularly in light of the Russian invasion of Crimea and confirmed Russian hacking in the 2016 election.

In terms of the current disastrous Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU, Trump is much too close to Prime Minister Boris Johnson who in an undemocratic manner tried to circumvent the British Parliament to get his way. Then there are the recent revelations about Trump’s unprecedented dealings with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which have led to the launch of an impeachment enquiry in the House of Representatives.  Here we have the President trying to persuade the Ukrainian President to get involved in a political-inspired investigation of an American presidential candidate.  Trump’s request has been tied to the withholding of military aid to Ukraine, something everyone agrees is not normal and most likely illegal. He has even suggested that China should undertake a similar investigation. Go figure!

On top of all this, one has the U.S. State Department in total turmoil. Its officials have little input into the Trump Administration’s foreign policy decisions and are daily loosing credibility abroad and in the U.S.  Once a highly respected and influential arm of government, one now has a Secretary of State who has become nothing more than a puppet for the President.  Mike Pompeo simply defends his boss’s mistakes, regardless of the international consequences.  One can only imagine what goes on in the National Security Council on a daily basis?

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Iraq and ISIS North Korea US

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Feb 18

Crazy Remark by President Trump Gives Kim Jong Un the Proof He Needs

by bcurry

Here we go again, a recent off-the-cuff remark by President Trump that former President Barack Obama had stated in a meeting with then President-elect Trump that the U.S. had been on the verge of war with North Korea. Within hours of his remark, several former high ranking officials under President Obama indicated to multiple media sources that no such statement had been made during the exchange.  According to these knowledgeable persons, at no time had the U.S. been in a state of planning to carry out an assault on North Korea as claimed by President Trump.

What Donald Trump’s remark has done is confirm for Kim Jong Un that the threat to his regime of an attack by the U.S. had been imminent in the past. Kim can use this false revelation to defend the continuing build-up of his military capabilities, including his nuclear and missile capabilities.  Such statements by a sitting American president reinforce Kim’s past assertions to North Koreans that there was a real threat of American military action against their country.

Signing a peace treaty with North Korea will require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea and its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea. The removal of American forces, numbered in the tens of thousands, from South Korea is a precondition for any denuclearization by the North Korean regime. North Korea views the American forces as a real threat. Mass military drills and naval exercises by the U.S. and South Korea are also viewed by Kim’s regime as a rehearsal for war.

Next week, President Trump intends to meet once again with Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam, as a follow-up to their previous meeting. Reports had suggested that pre-summit talks may include North Korea’s closure of its main nuclear scientific research centre in Yongbyon in exchange for some sanctions relief or a declaration to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War. Let’s hope that President Trump’s false assertion about previous U.S. foreign policy positions vis-à-vis a war with North Korea don’t negatively influence the outcome of the upcoming talks. Please, Mr. President, no more silly off-the-cuff remarks!  The seriousness of the issues at hand leave no room to play politics.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy North Korea US

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Jan 27

There Was Another Infamous Wall Called The Berlin Wall

by bcurry

Due to President Trump’s current political stance regarding the border with Mexico, there is a lot of talk about expanding a barrier between the two countries. However, do such barriers or walls really work all that well?  In 1961, a wall was built by East German authorities between East Berlin and West Berlin.  The wall was to prevent East Germans from fleeing East Germany to enter West Germany via West Berlin. According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, the original wall, built of barbed wire and cinder blocks, was subsequently replaced by a series of concrete walls (up to 15 feet [5 metres] high) that were topped with barbed wire and guarded with watchtowers, gun emplacements, and mines. By the 1980s that system of walls, electrified fences, and fortifications extended 28 miles (45 km) through Berlin, dividing the two parts of the city, and extended a further 75 miles (120 km) around West Berlin, separating it from the rest of East Germany.

However, despite this massive fortification, over 5,000 East Germans managed to cross the Berlin Wall (by various means) and reach West Berlin safely. Finally, in 1989 the East German government opened the country’s borders with West Germany (including West Berlin). The openings were made in the Berlin Wall through which East Germans could travel freely to the West. During the Cold War, the wall had become a symbol of state oppression and an attempt to prevent thousands of desperate people from seeking freedom in the West, many at real risks to their lives and certain imprisonment in East Germany if captured.

Extending a wall between the U.S. and Mexico would also become a symbol of one country’s oppressive policies to deny refuge to desperate men, women and children fleeing for their lives. To arbitrarily deny all refugees the possibility of safe haven by erecting a wall is morally wrong in itself.  To think that a wall will stem the tide of those seeking a better life for themselves and their families is not a practical solution, as evidenced by the Berlin Wall.  Just as the Berlin Wall had ceased to function as a political barrier between East and West Germany, so would a physical border wall with Mexico never adequately and humanely deal with the current influx of refugees.

Surely, the U.S. administration can come up with more humane alternatives and viable policy options to help these people either in their countries or while in the process of desperate flight. Monies expended on the construction of a wall expansion could better be spent on improving the conditions faced by potential refugees in their countries of origin.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Immigration US

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Dec 23

With Trump, There’s Nowhere To Go But Down

by bcurry

Well, President Trump, you’ve gone and done it again. 2018 is ending with a big downward spiral in everything political, economic and international.  What’s really sad is that your narcissistic self has gotten the better part of your uneven temperament.  Let’s see, your former Chief of Staff and Secretary of Defense are now gone over obvious in-fighting in the not so tranquil White House.  American allies around the world are bewildered at your foreign policies, including the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Syria and Afghanistan. Your failure to condemn the leaders of Saudi Arabia for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has brought disgrace upon the U.S.  The November elections saw the Republicans loose control of the House of Representatives and numerous state legislatures.  Your so-called protectionist trade practices have helped the stock exchanges head into the worst bear markets since the great recession of 2008.  The American people are more divided then ever before.  Now, you’ve caused the shut down of many federal departments and agencies just before Christmas, with some 300,000 civil servants going without pay for who knows how long.  All over your squabble with Congress about including $5 Billion to construct a silly wall between the U.S. and Mexico, for which you had unrealistically promised during the election would be paid for by Mexico. Even members of the Republican Party are becoming frustrated with your irrational premise for a shut-down which you openly welcomed and endorsed on national television.

As we approach the start of a New Year, there appears that there is little hope for things to get any better. Your trade war with China has only just begun and we may be on the verge of another global recession. Americans, Canadians, Europeans, Japanese and everyone else will suffer as a result.  I’m afraid, President Trump, that you are no King Midas.  It appears that everything you touch turns to one big turd.  Indeed, the best is yet to come!  There are still the indictments of members of the President’s election team and the final outcome of the Mueller investigation which most likely will be the political story of 2019.  There is also little doubt that the Democrat majority House will begin investigations into your behaviour and past transgressions.  You may be yet facing impeachment proceedings.  But don’t worry.  You can always ask your good buddy, Vladimir Putin, to provide you with refuge in lovely Moscow. I hear that it’s nice at this time of the year.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Immigration Political Scandals US

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Aug 31

Trump’s Trade War With China Can Only Increase Global Economic Concerns

by bcurry

President Donald Trump wants to move ahead with a plan to impose additional tariffs worth US$200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as a public-comment period concludes on September 6th.  The action is likely to further unnerve financial markets that have been concerned about the growing tensions. Stocks fell on the news, with the S&P 500 testing the key 2,900 level. The offshore yuan dropped to a new low, while the dollar and the yen gained amid a flight to safety. As in the case of the earlier imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, the proposed tariffs are bound to affect other countries. The tariff news exacerbated already fragile market sentiment amid currency routs in Argentina and Turkey. In addition, American consumers will feel the effects in the form of more expensive manufactured and other goods imported from China.

Yes, while there are some concerns about China’s trade policies in the past, copyright infringements on some products, and restrictions on foreign investment in the country, I’m not sure that Trump’s negotiating tactics are necessarily the best way to deal with these issues. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it very clear that China will not be bullied into any trade agreement with the U.S.  In addition, the full impact of a trade war has yet to happen in the U.S.  How many sectors and industries will the administration have to provide public funds to offset the economic impact, as was done recently in the agricultural sector?  Who pays for this?

China, like Russia and some other countries, is already moving away from using the American dollar as a primary currency used in foreign trade. As well, China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the U.S. to sell its products, can take the hit much better than the U.S.  This is especially true as the U.S. has started trade disputes on several fronts at the same time, such as with Europe and Canada.  Most of China’s products imported to the States, and there are many of them, still won’t have any tariffs on them at this time.  Many American businesses depend heavily on global supply chains, such as China, in order to remain competitive and viable.

Since Donald Trump’s election, the Chinese, including its banks, had made earlier concessions of foreign investment and the lowering of tariffs on imported cars. It would appear that a thoughtful, reciprocal and incremental approach to trade negotiations would have made more sense for all concerned.  Instead, we have an American President who says that “trade wars are good”. I’m not so sure.  Are you?

China Foreign Policy Protectionist Trade Policies US

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Jul 1

This Canada Day, We Stand On Guard For Thee

by bcurry

We celebrate July 1st in recognition of the 150 years since the formation of the country called Canada. The U.S. of course celebrates July 4th in recognition of its independence day.  The two countries have a lot in common, including the longest unguarded border in the world.  We fought two World Wars and the Korean War together.  Canadian troops served in Afghanistan. Canada and the U.S. formed the continental defence body called the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). We share a common language “English”, although Canada also has “French” as a second official language.  Many Americans and Canadians work and play in each other’s countries.  Canada is America’s single largest trade partner and have a free trade arrangement in place, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

However, since the emergence of President Donald Trump’s administration, the relationship between our two countries has seriously deteriorated to having now become the worst in decades. The relationship has not only soured because of the current re-negotiations respecting NAFTA and recent U.S. tariffs placed on Canadian steel and aluminum products, but because of Trump’s continuing personal attacks on Canadians, including our Prime Minister.  These and other attacks on our European and Latin American allies have further aggravated world tensions, both economic and political.  Trump’s protectionist and ‘America First’ policies may play well among his base in the U.S., but it is unravelling decades of international cooperation.

There are no winners in this current atmosphere of constant turmoil and instability, much of which is reflected in the stock markets in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Europe and China. Should the trade war continue, many experts predict that the world could be in for another major global recession.  Here in Canada, businesses, workers and consumers are preparing for the worst. As Canada now has an integrated economy with the U.S., industries like the automotive sector will suffer on both sides of the border in the advent of the imposition of further tariffs. Canadians perceive the imposition of American tariffs as a deliberate attack on the Canadian economy and have responded accordingly with new tariffs on a wide range of American products.  Indeed, there are now national ‘Buy Canadian’ campaigns aimed at promoting Canadian brands over American brands.  Numerous Canadians have already decided not to vacation south of the border, and mutual tourism will suffer.

Jobs will be lost on both sides of the border, but I’m certain that the economic impact will be worst for Canada as a trading nation. The results will be an increase in Canadian opposition to the Trump regime and a growing frustration with its unfair policies.  After all, Americans are supposed to be our friends and a good neighbour.  We have never taken this for granted.  However, Canadians are a proud people and will resist any such bullying tactics by external sources, no matter how difficult conditions may become.  The question then becomes how long these conditions will continue and how long it will take to mend fences in the future?  Your guess is as good as mine.  In the meantime, as Canadians we will stand on guard for thee.  Happy Canada Day! Oh yeah, and hopefully a happy Fourth of July!

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Protectionist Trade Policies U.S. Canada Border US

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May 22

Is Trump Ready To Go To War With Iran and North Korea?

by bcurry

There appears to be a lot of saber-rattling in Washington nowadays! You have Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listing a set of demands aimed at Iran so that it would become everything but a puppet state of the U.S.  One has John Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, who is a well known hawk in and around the capital. A lot of the administration’s critics think that these two would rather skip with the diplomatic niceties and skip straight to military action.

Then we have the European allies, China and Russia who all signed on to the Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal, in 2015. What Pompeo and Trump fail to understand is that the deal was aimed primarily at limiting Iran’s nuclear program by placing restrictions on it and having International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors set up a system that allows the U.N. watchdog to inspect nuclear-related sites in Iran. It was never intended to influence Iran’s general regional policy issues which would have to done through other separate foreign policy initiatives. Of course, Israel never liked the nuclear deal, which did not directly stop Iran from testing or firing ballistic missiles, and persuaded the Trump administration to go it alone. By scrapping the deal, the U.S. will reimpose U.S. sanctions, further hurting the average Iranian. Iran’s government is resolved to resist the American demands, even at the eventual expense of its economy. An anti-American stance can only help the radicals obtain more control of Iran’s politics.

As for North Korea, Kim Jong Un is playing Trump like a fiddle. Anyone who knows anything about his regime, understands that he is not willing to give up his nuclear arsenal.  Signing any peace treaty would require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea, possibly with its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea. Kim also now sees how the U.S. treated the nuclear deal with Iran and will not trust the Americans with any similar deal for North Korea. Kim is also using the current military exercises by the U.S. and its allies in the region as an excuse to potentially pull out of the planned June meeting with Trump. Trump is now caught in an awkward situation where political promises were made and expectations were raised as to some form of eventual deal in the region.  The ball is now in Kim’s court.

All of this signifies that American foreign policy is in a mess. Other than moving toward military actions, show me a strategy that makes sense.  The complexities of foreign policy development have been left to overly simplistic approaches and negotiating tactics.  Even the influence of the most powerful nation on earth won’t be enough to rescue this situation from the heap of manure on which it’s built.  I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be working in the State Department these days.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy The Middle East US

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