FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Concerns Over Refugee Flows Into the U.S. Are Decades in the Making

The current issues surrounding the influx of refugees over the Mexican-U.S. border have been decades in the making.  It doesn’t matter whether it was a Democratic or Republican administration, American policies and initiatives have created the past and current issues surrounding refugees and so-called illegals, particularly from Central American countries.  Anyone who would like to examine an excellent historical accounting of these policies should read a 2024 book by Jonathan Blitzer entitled: “Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here (The United States, Central America, and The Making of a Crisis)”.  Mr. Blitzer is a well known staff writer at The New Yorker.  He describes not only past U.S. policies supporting autocrats and military regimes in countries such as El Salvador and Guatemala, but he also relates stories which put a face on several migrants.

He noted as follows: “From the 1980s to the early 2000s, the story of the southern border was about the United States and Mexico.  At the time, migrants entering the US tended to be single Mexican men looking for work.  But around 2014, a different population started to arrive on a scale Americans had never before seen.  These were children and families from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras — traveling north to seek asylum.  In just about every respect, the US was unprepared for this shift.”

Notably, each of the last three American presidents have had to deal with a major humanitarian emergency at the border, while also deepening involvement in two major civil wars in Central America, often in the name of fighting communism as alluded to by President Ronald Reagan back in the early 1980s.  While rebels in these countries were fighting for people against authoritarian regimes, social injustice and military atrocities, the U.S. was backing those same regimes through military aid and covert operations carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).  Government led violence and massacres became common place, forcing many families and individuals to flee these countries.

Today, one can add Venezuela to the list as the most recent migrants are from that single country.  Many Venezuelans had expected to join large existing communities of their compatriots in places such as Florida and Texas.  How did the governors of some states react to this latest influx?  They simply began a program of busing or flying recent migrants to cities such as New York, Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia.  Interestingly, the destinations were cities run by Democrats who supported the Biden administration’s more open immigration policy. Soon, some neighbourhoods in those cities started looking like Texas border towns.

As reported recently by The New York Times, in two years Texas alone bused more than 119,000 people to Democrat-led cities, shifting both migration patterns and the debate over immigration.  The list of targeted cities apparently just keeps expanding.  As noted, Texas governor Greg Abbott took what otherwise might have been the slow diffusion of migrants from the border to cities and towns across the U.S., and directed it at just a few places.  The White House called it a “political stunt.”  Such expensive state policies of course do nothing to address the real issues as to why people are fleeing these countries in the first place.  The U.S. has to better address the realities of violence, poverty, cartels and the drug trade, and the inability of Mexico itself to deal with the migrant problem, both economically and politically.  The detrimental impact of climate change will only add to the nature of agricultural and industrial decline in that part of the Third World.

What is most disconcerting is that under former President Trump, parents and their children were deliberately split up.  Unfortunately, hundreds of parents who eventually were deported did not even know what had happened to their children in the U.S.  Such separation was inexcusable and inhumane.  Let’s hope that another potential Trump presidency would not introduce such a policy in the name of creating some kind of uncertain deterrence factor. 

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Student Protests in U.S. and Canada More Than Just About Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

As most people know who follow current news and social media, college student protests in both countries have escalated in recent weeks.  Students have now set up encampments on campus grounds and have even occupied university buildings.  In numerous cases, especially in the U.S. to date, the university administrations have called in the police to physically force the protesting students from their encampments on campuses.  Universities are doing so under the guise of protecting the safety of their student population, especially in the case of Jewish students who appear concerned for their safety on campus.  In some cases, faculty members have joined the protesters in objecting to the use of physical force, especially where the protests have been peaceful.

However, the fact of the matter is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also galvanized the unrest witnessed among student bodies over the last two to three decades.  As one observer notes, in many students’ eyes, the war in Gaza is linked to other issues, such as policing, mistreatment of Indigenous people, racism and the impact of climate change.  More than likely, protesters have been joined by others who oppose the role of their governments in terms of their global policies and lack of action on tackling climate change viewed by many as the first priority in terms of today’s issues.  There is a lot of pent-up anger among young people over a number of social issues that they are facing on a daily basis.  In addition, many college programs and policies supporting diversity, equality and inclusion have been watered down, particularly in the U.S. as a result of recent Supreme Court decisions.

In addition, there is the apparent lack of transparency among university administrations concerning the allocation of resources and investments in various domestic and foreign industries and businesses.  Students pay a lot of money to attend these universities and are asking for greater transparency and accountability in such transactions at home and abroad, not only with respect to Israel but also other global matters.  One has to ask whether such student demands are indeed reasonable under the circumstances?

Most would agree that violence on campus, including hate mongering, is not the answer.  Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail over the course of the coming weeks.  However, with pro-Israel students ratcheting up their counter protests on a number of campuses, the climate could grow even more strained in the coming days.  The current disproportionate involvement of an increasingly militarized police force is a major concern, and can only exacerbate the situation on many campuses.

Young people have a right to peacefully protest, which is part of the freedom of expression normally supported in universities and colleges across Canada and the U.S.  Unfortunately, college faculties in many states have come under attack by governments over what is being referred to inappropriately as the “woke” effect.  Critical thinking has come under attack by conservative elements in both countries.  Some faculties are being told not only what they can teach but also how they go about teaching certain subjects.  We must all agree that this is a major affront on the fundamental rights and obligations of universities to offer open and considered dialogue on today’s important issues.  These attacks have once again frustrated many students in light of the increasingly apparent lack of respect for these institutions of “higher learning”.

Universities have often served as one of society’s important settings for activism, given the very nature of examining and questioning many of our daily issues; whether political, economic, environmental or technological.  Activism can often lead to open peaceful protests in a democratic society and must be supported, especially on our campuses.

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Electorate in Both U.S. and Canada Appears to be Very Disgruntled. I Wonder Why?

George H. W. Bush Senior, going into his bid for a second term, was frequently told that it’s all about the economy stupid!  The U.S. economy went into a recession in 1990; the unemployment rate rose from 5.9% in 1989 to a high of 7.8% in mid-1991; and the debt percentage of total gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 39.4% in 1989 to almost 46.8% in 1992.  By the presidential election in1992, many conservative Republicans’ support of Bush had waned for a variety of reasons, including raising taxes and cutting defense spending.  Americans were less concerned with his foreign policy successes (e.g. Persian Gulf War victory over Iraq) than with the nation’s deteriorating economic situation.  Thus, despite having once been a relatively popular president, he lost to Bill Clinton.

Today, the primary issue among voters continues to be the economy, and especially the high rate of inflation and high interest rates affecting people’s mortgages and the cost of loans in general.  Yes, there is low unemployment and more people are employed today than anytime since the pandemic.  However, unfortunately for Joe Biden, the average American is struggling on a daily basis to make ends meet, especially since average wages have not kept up with increasing inflation over the last few years.  Many people and businesses are still recovering from the pandemic, which has created a real sense of insecurity and a general malaise within the population.

Taking all of this into account, and that people are not happen with another Trump vs. Biden election, there is a general mistrust with governance.  The same can be said for in Canada where you have a Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and a party that has been in power for over nine years.  The opposition is continuously harpooning about the high cost of inflation and high interest rates that average Canadians are facing.  There is also a good amount of discord over the government’s intention to raise the national carbon tax this coming April, despite it being only one element of several policies aimed at tackling climate change.  However, right now, climate change has taken a back seat to the economy.  A federal election will very likely be called next year in Canada, and all the government can hope for is that the economy will improve and inflation will come down.

Overall, these are tough times for governing parties.  There appear to be no win-win situations.  Government deficits have been climbing steadily, partly in earlier response to the pandemic, with no end in sight.  Wars overseas in the Ukraine and Middle East are not helping.  Funds are being allocated to support the Ukraine against Russia, Israel’s military and the plight of Palestinian refugees in Gaza.  The situation has placed both the U.S. and Canada in a difficult situation given the evolving humanitarian crisis in both conflicts.  In terms of foreign policy, domestically it is a no-win and highly emotive situation for both governments in terms of supporting one side or the other particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In addition, stability in the energy markets is constantly under threat as a result of the sanctions against Russian oil and natural gas exports and the general unstable situation in the Middle East.  As a result, there has been a measurable direct or indirect impact in the form of rising costs for gas and heating fuel in North America.

There is little doubt that we live uncertain times.  There is also little doubt that voters are concerned with the cost of living and continuing hard economic times.  This bleak outlook does not bode well for President Biden and Prime Minister Trudeau.  The question then becomes whether their political opponents can take advantage of the situation?  I guess time will tell.

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The Power of the American Military Industrial Complex Continues to Grow

Lester B. Pearson, a former Canadian Prime Minister, was quoted in 1955: “The grim fact is that we prepare for war like precocious giants, and for peace like retarded pygmies.”  As you may know or not know, as a diplomat Pearson was largely responsible for encouraging the formation of the League of Nations after World War II, which in turn became the United Nations.

Former U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned in 1953: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”  As a former general during World War II, Eisenhower clearly understood the power of the military industrial complex in the States, a power that has continued to grow from this day forward.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest arms exporter.  As of last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the U.S. controlled an estimated 45 percent of the world’s weapons exports.  This is nearly five times more than any other nation and its highest level since the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union.  That is up from 30 percent a decade ago.

The current conflict between Israel and Hamas is just the latest impetus behind a boom in international arms sales that is bolstering profits and weapons-making capacity among American suppliers, especially with respect to Israel’s military.  The U.S. already provides Israel with more than $3 billion in military assistance every year, and Congress is now apparently being asked to increase funding to Israel to the tune of $10 billion in emergency aid due to the conflict.

Even before Israel responded to the deadly Hamas attack, the combination of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the perception of a rising threat from China was spurring a global rush to purchase fighter planes, missiles, tanks, artillery, munitions and other lethal equipment.  Other countries such as Turkey and South Korea are also increasing their military equipment exports, giving purchasers more options at a time when production shortfalls in the U.S. mean it can take years for orders to be filled.  During the Biden administration countries such as Poland, Saudi Arabia, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Japan have signed military equipment deals with the U.S.  Even some small Pacific island nations have done the same. Taiwan alone has a backlog of American weapons orders worth as much as $19 billion.  Canada recently signed an agreement with Lockheed, the world’s largest military contractor, to purchase F-35 fighter jets worth billions of dollars.

Economically, there is little doubt that foreign-based wars can stimulate certain sectors of a country’s economy.  One only has to recall the impact of the Vietnam and Iraq wars to witness the role of American military hardware providers who benefited from the billions of dollars spent in support of American actions in both countries.  Unfortunately, thousands of American lives were loss and thousands more were injured in these two nebulous conflicts.  Military equipment is being sold to all sorts of regimes, several non-democratic, simply to garner support for American foreign policy initiatives in their respective region.

Sadly, there are those who note that the Pentagon and the State Department are continuing to work to find ways to accelerate approval of foreign military sales to keep up with the rising global demand.  The industry has declared that the main bottleneck remains manufacturing capacity, requiring an industrial base capable of meeting these requirements.  Yes, there will always be those that argue if the U.S. industry doesn’t fulfill such perceived needs, then other countries will simply step in to do so.  Regrettably, this appears to be a winnable argument in Congress, with the military industrial complex taking full advantage at the expense of American taxpayers since it is often combined with foreign aid and foreign policy.

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Dispute Between Canada and India Greatly Affects U.S. As Well

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said on Monday that “agents of the government of India” had carried out the assassination of a Sikh community leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar (a Canadian citizen), in British Columbia earlier this June.  This of course was an explosive allegation that has further soured relations between the two nations.  India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the accusation “absurd.” The two leaders met briefly at the Group of 20 summit meeting in India earlier this month..  Trudeau stated last week in Parliament that Canada had credible information that “agents of the government of India” had carried out the assassination of Nijjar.  A formal investigation is on-going.  At the summit meeting, Trudeau met briefly with Modi and raised the matter with him.  Mr. Modi “completely rejected” the allegations.

Since then, Canada was forced to cancel a scheduled trade mission to India and postponed a possible trade agreement between the two countries which had been negotiated for over a year. 

In turn, the Indian government temporarily blocked the issuance of visas to Canadians wishing to visit India.  This will affect Canadians of Indian descent, Indian students studying in Canada and family members visiting in Canada.  Both countries expelled diplomats from their respective embassies.  India for some time has also accused Canada of providing shelter to “Khalistani terrorists and extremists” who threaten India’s security.  Khalistan is what Sikh separatists call the independent state they seek to create in India.

The situation regarding the Sikh community is an important one given that Canada is now home to the largest Sikh population outside India, with about 770,000 people who reported Sikhism as their religion in a 2021 census.  Sikhs hold a prominent place in Canadian society and politics.  In the federal government, the head of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, is Sikh.

The current diplomatic dispute places President Biden in a tough and very sensitive place.  On the one hand, he has to recognize Canada’s right to defend its sovereignty.  After all, the U.S. would do the same under similar circumstances where American citizens are attacked in their country by foreign agents.  However, Biden is being forced to maintain a delicate balance between the interests of two democratic allies.  The White House has declared that it is waiting for the formal investigation to conclude before weighing in, but it pushed back on criticism that the U.S. is trying to avoid antagonizing India because of its important strategic role.  As reported by the Washington Post, India is among the world’s most populous countries, occupies a strategic location in the Asian subcontinent — notably opposite to China — and is home to a growing technology sector. The U.S. and India recently established a high-level initiative on defence and emerging technologies that will, among other things, promote joint production of defence equipment, including military jet engines, long-range artillery and armoured infantry vehicles.  However, the relationship is complicated by India’s poor record on domestic human rights, its reliance on discounted Russian oil and its neutral position vis-à-vis the Russian-Ukraine war.  Biden has raised the issue of Modi’s crackdown on dissent and his persecution of religious minorities in India.  Biden is asking both Canada and India to cooperate in the incident’s formal investigation in order to end the dispute as soon as possible. 

Those perceptions of peaceful Sikh advocacy for independence in India faced a jolt in 1985, when a bomb went off on an Air India flight from Canada to India via Britain.  The explosion off the coast of Ireland killed the 329 people, including several Canadians, on board.  An extremist, a Sikh immigrant, was convicted in connection with the bombing, which came at a time of heightened tensions between the Sikh community and the Indian government.  As in the U.S., Canada will always condemn any extremist activity that results in violence in Canada or elsewhere.  However, freedom of expression and freedom of religion are deeply entrenched in the constitutions of both countries and are fiercely protected.

Hopefully, both Canada and India, with their many other mutual interests, can resolve their differences through the promotion of cooperation in investigating the above incident.

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Weapons Sales by Canada and the U.S. Complicit in Supporting War Crimes by Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, mainly the United Arab Emirates, entered the Yemeni government’s war against the Houthi rebels in 2015, and began a wide-ranging aerial bombing campaign involving more than 150 airstrikes on civilian targets in Yemen.  The United Nations calls the situation in Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, as it is estimated that the war with Yemen has killed more than 230,000 people as a result of the fighting or its indirect consequences, such as hunger and outbreaks of disease.  The war has pushed the impoverished Yemen to the brink of famine.  During this nearly decade-long war, both the U.S. and Canada fournished weapons, including F-15S/SA planes and Canadian-made light armoured vehicles (LAVs), artillery systems, and heavy machine guns.

In 2021, the Biden administration in 2021 announced an end to U.S. military support for “offensive operations” carried out by the Saudi-led coalition and suspended some munition sales.  However, aircraft maintenance contracts fulfilled by both the U.S. military and U.S. companies to coalition squadrons carrying out offensive missions have continued.  Canada’s military exports to Saudi Arabia actually increased in 2021, making the Saudi kingdom Canada’s top export destination for such goods after the U.S. —  64 percent of the total value of non-US military exports that year.  In 2020, a review was undertaken by the Canadian government of weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, which concluded there was “no substantial risk” such transfers of military goods were “used to commit or facilitate violations of international human rights law, international humanitarian law, or gender-based violence”.  However, Amnesty International and Project Ploughshares have declared that the Canadian government’s review misinterpreted, or ignored, key pillars of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty, an international agreement signed by Canada regulating the international trade in conventional arms.  Contrary to what the federal government has said, they believe that Canada continues to ignore its international obligations to the Arms Trade Treaty.  On the other hand, the U.S., under Donald Trump, dropped out of the Arms Trade Treaty in 2019 for obvious misplaced domestic reasons.

Despite the fact that both countries have supported the kingdom, there have recently been signs of discontent with Saudi actions in Yemen and human rights violations by the Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  The murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey in 2018 by the Saudis did not help.  Nevertheless, we now have a planned trip by President Biden to Saudi Arabia to discuss increasing their production of oil, thereby helping his administration to lower gasoline prices in the U.S.  Although the U.S. helped diplomatically to arrange for a truce in the conflict between the Houthi in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, the horrendous damage was already done in both civilian casualties and infrastructure, including homes, hospitals and communication towers in Yemen.  Since 2015, human rights groups investigating the airstrikes on Yemen have identified more than 300 that violated or appeared to violate international law.  Even as early as March 2015, Internal State Department documents noted that U.S. officials worried that coalition airstrikes may have violated the rules of war.

While the world is paying close attention to possible war crimes by the Russians in Ukraine, countries such as the U.S. and Canada have been probably aided, through the provision of weapons to the Saudis and their allies, similar atrocities in Yemen.  In addition, within the kingdom of Saudi Arabia there are a number of alleged human rights issues, including the imprisonment of political activists.  However, these concerns have not been enough for the U.S. and Canada to cease their military support to the country.  One has to believe it’s more about the oil than it’s about the revenue from exports of military weapons and maintenance contracts.  Alas, there are no comparable bans on the export of oil from the region compared to existing European, U.S. and Canadian bans on the import of oil and gas from Russia.  Despite unresolved diplomatic disputes between the Saudis and both our countries, access to oil reserves unfortunately continues to drive our immediate foreign policies in the region.

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Much Like Americans and Vietnam, There Is Dissent Among Russians Over The War In Ukraine

It’s interesting to compare the nature of dissent among Americans during the military action in Vietnam years ago, and Putin’s current so-called “special military action” in the Ukraine by Russian forces.  Having lived during the years of the America’s military action in Vietnam, I can recognize the growing dissent among Russians over the Ukrainian invasion.  One has to remember that the U.S. involvement in Vietnam was never officially declared a war by Congress, but was instead acted upon by presidential executive statements.  America paid a terrible price for its involvement in Vietnam — nearly 60,000 killed in action, over 150,000 wounded, and some 1,600 missing.  Then there was the draft, whereby a good number of young draft-aged Americans were forced into the military and ended up fighting in the jungles of Vietnam against determined and aggressive fighters.  The U.S. military bombed the hell out of North and South Vietnam, apparently with little impact.  The administration’s policy excuse was to prevent some form of domino effect in Southeast Asia should the Communists take over all of Vietnam.  Unfortunately for the much better equipped U.S. military, the national desire of the Vietnamese to unite their country and expel all foreign intruders proved to be too much.  After killing thousands of Vietnamese and destroying much of Vietnam’s infrastructure, the Americans were forced to leave the country with the fall of the South Vietnamese capital of Saigon in April 1975.  Estimates for the number of North Vietnamese civilian deaths resulting from U.S. bombing range from 30,000 to 65,000.

As the Vietnamese conflict lagged on, more and more Americans began to question the U.S. involvement and related human and financial costs.  Some dissent took the form of draft-aged Americans fleeing the country, many to Canada which had an open policy for draftees.  Within the U.S., dissent grew among college students and even among many Vietnam vets.  President Nixon took much of the brunt of such anti-Vietnam protests.  Sometimes, protests became violent resulting in hundreds of arrests by the authorities.  Increasingly, the American press began to question the optimistic briefings provided by the military brass, often highlighting the alleged effectiveness of strategic bombings and gains made by ground forces.  However for the first time in history, video of the conflict provided by front-line war correspondents was seen by American television viewers on a nightly basis.  The influence of the American media was especially important at the time and helped to sway opinion against the conflict.

The biggest difference in the case of dissent against Russia’s incursion into the Ukraine is the complete control by Putin’s regime over state media outlets.  In addition, the punishment against Russians openly protesting the war has resulted in immediate imprisonment and the potential for up to 15 years in prison.  However, dissent has been particularly strong among younger and better educated Russians, as demonstrated by the thousands who have already fled Russia to Eastern and Western European countries.  There has even been dissent expressed among some oligarchs who normally are strongly aligned with Putin’s interests.  The Russian military is even more dependent upon conscription to complement its professional army, to the point that Moscow has indicated that it will conscript around 130,000 more military-aged Russians this year.  However, there have been indications that dissent has emerged among those conscripts currently serving in the Ukraine, including the abandonment of positions and deliberate disabling of equipment.  Faced with a committed and fierce Ukrainian opposition and inept military command, the Russian assault on Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv has been stalled. 

As the Russian economy falters and the war goes on and Russian casualties mount, there is little doubt that ordinary Russians will begin to question what the Putin regime is claiming.  A major difference with Vietnam is the fact that today social media is readily available, no matter how much the government attempts to control it.  Scenes of Russian military actions upon civilians, including the elderly and children, are extremely disturbing.  Increasingly, such actions are being depicted as “war crimes” in the eyes of the world.  As was the case in Vietnam, it will be interesting to see if Russian dissent will grow with the increasing scenes of body bags being returned to the homeland?  Such scenes at U.S. military bases greatly influenced the growth of American dissent as time moved on, especially when there was little indication as to an end to the Vietnam conflict.

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Invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin Puts American Right-Wing Supporters in Tough Spot

The current military invasion by Russian troops has placed many of Vladimir Putin’s American admirers, including Donald Trump, in an awkward situation.  In the past, Trump and other Republicans praised Vladimir Putin as a strong and savvy leader.  This was in spite of the fact that Putin runs a Russian oligarchy made up of billionaires, with Putin’s personal fortune and that of his oligarch friends estimated to be in the billions.  Russia’s ultra-rich are among the biggest owners of private jets, fancy mansions and superyachts, some of which are found in the U.S.  Although the U.S. and other Western countries have imposed severe sanctions on Russia and members of Putin’s administration, the challenge is their fortunes and assets could be held through shell companies, complicating the ownership chain.  While imposing sanctions on Russian’s ultra-rich is important, getting at the money itself is complex.  So far, even as the U.S., the U.K. and other Western countries have ramped up sanctions on more than 100 Russian individuals and entities, these assets of the country’s elite — which can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars each — have avoided any direct hit.

As in Europe, many ultra-right American groups looked up to Putin as a some sort of model leader for the ‘populism’ movement.  Fox News host Tucker Carlson urged Americans to ask themselves what they had against Putin, echoing the Kremlin as he denigrated Ukraine as not a democracy but a puppet of the West and the United States.  Former President Donald Trump defended his praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin, causing a number of top Republicans to distance themselves from his position.  What makes matters worst is that Putin’s regime has already imprisoned thousands of Russian protesters against the invasion.  So much for populism!  If the Russian military aggression continues longer than expected, there will be even greater unrest back in Russia, particularly as Russian military and Ukrainian civilian casualties rise.  Most observers believe that an inability of the Russian military to overthrown the current Ukrainian government in under two weeks will cause further enormous stress on Putin’s rule.

The negative toll on Russia’s economy as a result of Western sanctions and other economic penalties has already resulted in a massive slump in Russian stocks, considered to be the third-worst in the history of stock markets.  The Russian ruble has taken a major hit which will increase the costs of imported goods in Russia and contribute to the already post-pandemic economic downturn.  Any resulting reduction in the export of Russian oil and gas will have an impact on American and European energy markets, again contributing to the current hyperinflation world-wide.  Moreover, the war in Ukraine threatens the world’s economic recovery.

For many of his long-time admirers — from those in the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and Brazil — it is something of an awkward spot.  The longer Putin’s aggression continues, the more populist movements around the world will be forced to be on the defensive over their past and present support for Vladimir Putin.  With every day, it is clearly becoming ever more uncomfortable to try to defend Putin’s actions, despite what Donald Trump might say.

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Massive U.S. Foreign Military Aid to Israel Could Be Used To Improve Treatment of Palestinians

According to the Congressional Research Service, as of November 2020, Israel was the largest recipient of U.S. Foreign Military Financing.  For Fiscal Year 2021, President Trump’s request for Israel would encompass approximately 59 percent of America’s total requested Foreign Military Financing worldwide.  For decades now, the U.S. has had several Memoranda of Understanding consisting of tens of billions of dollars in its military aid package to Israel.  As a result of U.S. financial assistance, Israel also has been allowed to purchase 50 F-35s fighter jets in three separate contracts and missile defense systems.  In all, these annual military grants to Israel significantly represent approximately 20 percent of the overall Israeli defense budget.

Needless-to-day, the above appropriations suggest that the U.S. government should have some clout in terms of dealing with Israeli interactions with Palestinians.  Indeed, in May of this year, President Biden made an unusually blunt demand that Israel de-escalate its military attack on Gaza, creating a bit of a rare rift between the two countries.  Then there is the issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem where nearly three million Palestinians are living.  Nearly 140 unauthorized settler outposts were built there in recent decades in the West Bank, taking over lands lived on by Palestinians for centuries.  Much like former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the new right-wing Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, appears once again to support the settlers.

What is troubling over recent months, it has recently been disclosed by the Israeli military at the defense ministry that Israeli settlers have dramatically increased their attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.  They further note that violent incidents by settlers are up about 150 percent in the past two years.  Remember that the Israeli army is in charge of security in areas of the occupied West Bank where Israeli settlements are located.  However, observers, including Israeli human rights groups, have testified that soldiers frequently do little to intervene during the hate incidents against Palestinians.  Advocates also claim that crimes by Palestinians are aggressively prosecuted while settler violence typically goes unpunished.  By making life difficult for Palestinians who have lived in the these territories for generations, whether or not settler violence is part an overall strategy of expanding Israel’s presence is hopefully far from the truth.  Some suspect that it may not be.

Yes, anyone studying the history between Israelis and Palestinians recognizes that the issues are fairly complex.  However, with the evident clout that the U.S. has with respect to supporting Israel’s military, you would think that the Americans might do more to pressure the Israeli government to do more immediately to protect Palestinians in areas under their control.  Settlements that are illegal under Israeli law should be dismantled and greater protective measures should be implemented for the Palestinians.  Failure to do so could prove to be a blemish on human rights not only in Israel, but also for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.  When it comes to improving relations between Israelis and Palestinians, the Biden administration should attempt to revive America’s former role as a more neutral mediator in the Middle East’s most protracted conflict. 

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There is a Catch-22 in Pipeline Issues Between Canada and the U.S.

Following Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president, he took the widely expected step through an executive order of cancelling the cross-border permit for the US$14.4-billion Alberta-to-Texas heavy oil pipeline, the Keystone XL pipeline. The decision marks the third time a U.S. president has blocked the construction of this pipeline.  Next occurred the decision by Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer last November which ordered Calgary-based Enbridge to shut down its nearly 70-year-old Line 5 pipeline by May 12, 2021.  Line 5 carries each day up to 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids across Michigan and under the Great Lakes.  Line 5 is part of Enbridge’s mainland system carrying fuel from Alberta’s oil sands to the Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Canada, especially to refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.  Not surprisingly, President Biden’s and Governor Whitmer’s decisions were applauded by environmentalists and Indigenous groups on both sides of the border.

The difficulty is that Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, and the U.S. is its top customer.  While past incidents have occurred where crude oil leakages in pipelines, including those which are part of Enbridge’s mainland system, the alternative means of transportation via rail and trucking also represents serious safety issues.  This potential danger was clearly demonstrated in the fiery derailment in July 2013 in Lac-Megantic, Quebec, which killed 47 people and wiped out part of the town.  From an economic point of view, the transport of crude oil and natural gas liquids by pipeline is the most efficient and least costly option.  Realistically, any transition within the U.S. or Canada away from fossil fuels will take time.  While the elimination of fossil fuels makes good environmental sense in light of climate change, there continues to be a dependence on fossil fuels for servicing our industries, running our transportation hubs, producing electricity and heating our homes.  Both countries have to cooperatively work together towards achieving environmental goals without creating bad relations between our governments and citizens.

Back in January, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney asked the Canadian government to push the U.S. government to reimburse the $1.5 billion it stands to lose from the cancellation of Keystone XL and to reimburse TC Energy, the project proponent, for the money it has sunk into the project.  Alberta took an ownership stake in 2020, representing more than $1 billion in taxpayer money to fund the construction of the pipeline.  The Biden administration’s decision to block the Keystone XL pipeline has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a very difficult situation, one which he has raised with the President.  On the one hand he has to support Alberta’s oil and gas industry.  On the other hand the Prime Minister has agreed reduce in Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  This brings Canada in line with the Biden administration recent pledge to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

Critics of the decision to shut down the Line 5 pipeline note that 6,500 good-paying jobs in Sarnia, Ontario, are on the line.  A further 23,500 indirect jobs in that same region could also be impacted, and thousands more across Ontario and Quebec.  Line 5 also feeds into Line 9, which carries oil to refineries in Montreal and Lévis for Quebec’s supply needs.  According to Minister of Natural Resources Seamus O’Regan, Line 5 delivers 66 percent of the crude oil consumed in Quebec.  This means that besides Alberta, the Premiers of Ontario and Quebec are extremely unhappy with the Michigan Governor’s position.  Any decision to move crude oil and natural gas liquids by alternate means is considered less safe, more costly and realistically not viable given the vast quantities that have to be transported.  This is your Catch-22.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. need to work much more closely to resolve all relevant issues pertinent to their respective constituents.  Our continuing good trade and political relationships are in the balance.

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