FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Sep 7

What’s Going On With All These Pollsters?

by bcurry

Pick up any newspaper today or read news articles online, and you can’t avoid seeing the most recent polls concerning the U.S. presidential primaries or the standings of federal political parties and their leaders in Canada.  The most interesting polls of course have to do with the potential impact of the recent indictments against former President Donald Trump.

However, support for Trump, may obscure a still varied Republican electorate. To better understand the party today, one pollster split Republican and Republican-leaning voters into groups, based on the results of its Times/Siena poll. The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump.  The results depict a Republican coalition that consists of different six groups.  Their support for Trump varies accordingly.

According to a poll commissioned by POLITICO Magazine and conducted by Ipsos in June, roughly half of the country believes that Trump committed the crimes alleged against him.  What should happen to Trump if he gets convicted?  The poll’s results show that forty-three percent said he should go to prison, but most were willing to spare him jail time.  Nearly a quarter of respondents said that Trump should incur no punishment at all (22 percent), while 18 percent said he should receive probation and another 17 percent said he should face only a financial penalty.  Interestingly, roughly one-third of respondents said that they are not particularly familiar with the allegations in the indictment cases.

Nationally, recent polls indicate that support for President Biden and Trump is about evenly split.  However, analysts note that should Trump win the Republican primaries, he would most likely loose to Biden. This despite voter concerns over Biden’s age and his low approval ratings.

In Canada, the political drama is far less evident than in the U.S.  Recent polls show that the current leader of the federal Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has pulled ahead of Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.  Moreover, an Ipsos poll in December 2022 indicated that nearly half of Canadians want there to be a federal election in 2023, although the official deadline for the next federal election is 2025.  In addition, the poll indicated that, after over eight years in office, a slim majority of those polled are hoping one politician won’t be running in the next election: Prime Minister Trudeau.  Fifty-four percent of those polled said Trudeau should step down as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2023, although just 27 percent said they actually believe he’ll do so.  The Prime Minister’s approval rating has been coming down when compared to Poilievre’s.  However, with an election still potentially two years away, anything can happen as indicated by recent polls, and much will depend on the regional distribution of votes.

Polls are powerful – they can influence emotions and shape political fortunes. They can be used to drum up support for campaigns and reveal how closely aligned (or far apart) the general public is on consequential presidential or prime ministerial policies.  Recent national elections have reminded us how problematic it is when we think of polls as forecasts of the future rather than a glimpse at where people stand at a given moment in time.  Also, not all polls include a margin of error, including non-probability polls such as those you can opt into online.  According to Pew Research Center, participants for these polls self-select, or opt in, and there is a risk that “these samples will not resemble the larger population”.

Polling is a huge industry.  All political parties and many third-parties, including media sources, use polls to get an idea where the voters stand on certain issues and how much support is out there for parties’ platforms.  Past history has shown that the closer one gets to an election date, the more accurate certain polling can begun.  Unfortunately, polls released just prior to that date can potentially influence the way in which certain voters, especially the undecideds, may consider voting.  After all, everyone prefers to support a potential winner, notably if they are voting as independents.  Prior to the next American and Canadian elections, I’d be closely watching the potential impact of polling and whether the results reflect the final outcome of the election.

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Aug 9

Political Polarizations Has Increased Mistrust in Many of Our Public Institutions

by bcurry

The New York Times in a very recent article (August 7th) notes that Republican (G.O.P.) contenders in the presidential primaries are bent on feeding voter distrust in public institutions such as the courts, schools and the military.  Obviously, most appear to be following the lead of Donald Trump who, for example whenever he has the chance, publicly attacks the U.S. Justice Department and the F.B.I.  During the pandemic Trump even disparaged the Surgeon General, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Resources.  Now, facing a barrage of indictments by the Justice Department, Trump has further accelerated his personal attacks on these major institutions.  Unfortunately, several other G.O.P. candidates have followed suit in an apparent attempt to appease Trump’s core followers.

All of the rhetoric, including that disseminated by social media and right-wing media, has created an environment where recent polls show that Americans’ trust in their institutions has apparently fallen to historical lows.  Feeding on voters’ already deeply embedded scepticism might have once been seen as politically risky, but social media and the right-wing media have helped change that.  The Republican governor of Florida and a candidate, Ron DeSantis, has led the charge against what he sees as a biased and liberal-influenced education system in his state.  Not to be outdone, another G.O.P. candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has gone on record that he would shut down the F.B.I. and the I.R.S. as part of his fight against the so-called “deep state”.

My primary question is what would replace all these important institutions in a democracy that claims to need independent bodies to deal with issues like law and order, public health, the environment, new technologies and the role of the military?  In a modern society, freedoms are important, but there still has to be some oversight of those matters as they relate to the public good.  Campaign rhetoric perpetuating conspiratorial themes does not help to ensure a rational and knowledge-based debate on many of the challenges that, as a democracy, we face daily.  It’s easy to argue that things should be eliminated, but no one Republican has yet rationally put forward any ideas about how one would go about replacing these institutions — and with what.

The Republican Party, just as the Conservative Party in Canada, has long stood for “smaller government in size and role” going back to the days of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.   However, the current G.O.P. extreme rhetoric goes far beyond the past political stances of Republican presidents, from Richard Nixon to the Bushes.  As the Times article notes: “The proliferation of attacks has alarmed both Republicans and Democrats who worry about the long-term impact on American democracy.  Public confidence in core institutions — from the justice system to voting systems — is fundamental to a durable democracy, particularly at a time of sharp political division.”

Just as I am certain that there are a good number of moderate Republicans in the U.S. and conservatives in Canada who oppose such extreme rhetoric, I am hoping that cooler heads will prevail among our electorates in both countries.  Our democracies are closely watched by countries around the world, and defending our democratic institutions has never been more important in the face of the growth of autocratic regimes globally.  These institutions are essential to defending our democratic values and promoting the public good.  We need to strengthen them rather than knock them down as the result of excessive political polarization.  It’s one thing to push for smaller government influence in our lives, it’s another to suggest that one can simply eliminate or emasculate its influence in highly complex modern societies.  Doing so would just replace democracies with autocracies by centralizing political and economic powers under one regime.  We now have checks and balances, including the courts and justice system, to prevent this from happening.  Unfortunately, the Republicans appear more than willing to minimize such oversight.  Ultimately, the current split in their party, led by Donald Trump’s extremism, could greatly weaken their platform in the eyes of the American electorate, and particularly those of independents.

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Apr 2

Trump Could Run For President.  This Could Not Happen in Canada.

by bcurry

Legal exerts in the U.S. believe that former President Trump could run for president from prison.  Two previous candidates, Eugene V. Debs in 1920, and Lyndon LaRouche in 1992, both unsuccessfully ran from prison.  Experts note that there’s nothing in the Constitution preventing him from doing so.  Much will be determined by the outcome of a trial over Donald Trump’s indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office which investigated Trump’s personal and business finances, including a payment by Michael Cohen, Trump’s formal personal lawyer.  The payment was made to adult-film star Stormy Daniels days before the 2016 election.  One major drawback is, if convicted, Trump would be subject to the same rules as other prisoners, which could definitely restrict his communications and ability to appear at events.  Furthermore, he would need to rely on proxies to campaign for him.  This of course removes Trump from the hustings which has proven to be his greatest strength on the campaign trail, especially among his followers.

Whether or not Trump is found guilty, the situation leaves the Republicans in a major bind, especially during their primaries to select their next candidate to run for president.  Trump’s core is still evidently strong and could mount a serious protest against the choice of any other Republican candidate.  In light of this, there is also nothing to stop Trump from declaring himself an independent candidate for president.  This in turn would most likely split the conservative support in the next election, much to the benefit of the Democrats and the incumbent president.

What’s interesting is such a situation could not occur in Canada as the Prime Minister (PM) is the leader of the party which gets the most seats in Parliament.  Unlike the American president, one does not vote directly for the PM, but votes for candidates of a political party within their electoral riding.  The party leader is selected through a party’s leadership convention, although in the case of an incumbent PM, his leadership is usually automatic unless contested within the party.  A PM typically sits as a member of Parliament (MP).  Once a party achieves the majority of seats in the House of Commons, the leader can then form the government and he or she is designated by the Governor General to fulfill the role of PM.  Thus, he or she could never run for leader of a party and in turn PM from prison.

Since the indictment of former President Trump is the first of its kind in American history, there are a few unknowns as to how everything will unfold.  One must also remember that Trump is still under investigation for other things, including other ongoing investigations related to his role in the Capitol riot, an alleged scheme to overturn election results in Georgia, and his handling of government records.  What’s interesting is that the indictment and these investigations have not really damaged Trump’s popularity among conservatives.  A very recent poll taken post-indictment indicates that Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary surged to a 26-point.  In the poll, 57% of those asked said they would vote for Trump, while 31% indicated that they would back DeSantis.  This whole scenario represents a very real problem for the Republican Party, despite their outcries over Trump’s indictment.

Only in America you say!  America’s democratic institutions have been under attack for some time now from the far-right.  This entire predicament simply adds to the turmoil.  It is obvious that the authorities have to handle the whole episode with diplomacy and silk gloves.  In the end, whatever the eventual outcome of this indictment and ongoing investigations, the whole affair could become a political circus.  Certainly, no one, including a former president, is above the law.  Donald Trump is no exception.  The best thing that could happen is for Trump to withdraw his candidacy to be the Republican presidential candidate.  However, I strongly believe, knowing Trump, that this will never happen!

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Nov 9

Where Is America’s Democracy Heading?

by bcurry

Now that the mid-term elections are more or less over, there are a lot of questions about where America’s democratic processes are heading?  This is particularly true given the following issues that surfaced during the voting processes.

  • Several states instituted new restrictions on how people could vote, some moving to in-person voting as a requirement.  This particularly had a negative impact on seniors and persons with mobility disabilities.  In some cases, it also affected marginalized groups.  For example, Florida had new elections legislation affecting voting in the State, which voter advocates argued disproportionately affected Black voters — making it harder for many to vote — and created an environment of confusion and fear.
  • Various voting station monitoring processes were introduced, some of which definitely intimidated certain voters.  In a couple of instances, authorities had to remove armed monitors — reminiscent of Russian elections — from polling stations.
  • Several states had candidates, all Republican, whose platforms included the open but false belief that the 2020 Presidential election was not legitimate.  Some of these candidates were running for positions of Senator, Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State.  If elected, all could have a serious impact on how future elections are run.
  • Right-wing roadshows, such as the ReAwaken America Tour, promoted Christian nationalism before the mid-terms.  According to Samuel Perry, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Oklahoma and the co-author of the book ‘The Flag and the Cross: White Christian Nationalism and the Threat to American Democracy’, a growing number of Republicans are embracing the ideology of Christian nationalism.  Such groups advocate the fusion of American civic life with a particular kind of white, conservative Christianity, a contrary notion to the separation of church and state.
  • As Republican candidates across the country continue to amplify former President Donald Trump’s false claims of corrupted elections, officials were ready for disruptions after the polls closed.  Already declared, activists and lawyers are prepared to challenge ballots and dispute counting procedures, and losing candidates who cast doubt on the integrity of the process may file lawsuits.
  • Not long ago, the fight against disinformation focused on the major social media platforms, like Facebook and Twitter. When pressed, they often removed troubling content, including misinformation and intentional disinformation about issues. Today, however, there are dozens of new platforms, including some that pride themselves on not moderating — censoring, as they put it — untrue statements in the name of free speech.

These are only a few of the anomalies that were witnessed during yesterday’s mid-term elections.  The continuing polarization of American politics was clearly on display.  There appears to be no real chance for compromise in Congress which will leave President Joe Biden with few legislative options during the remainder of his term in office.  It can only be expected that the same election issues will surface in the next presidential election, if not more so.

Even the U.S. Supreme Court has increasingly demonstrated in recent decisions that political ideology plays an important role, especially when judges are appointed by Republican or Democratic administrations.  Clearly, there now has surfaced a serious negative impact on the courts as neutral bodies governed by the laws of the land and the will of the peoples’ elected representatives.  So much for checks and balances related to the three branches of governance!

Other democracies are closely watching what is happening in the America and some are very concerned about the situation.  Studies have even shown that young people in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. are increasingly cynical about the ability of democracies to effectively govern, leading today’s youth away from representative government.  Some young people appear ready to abandon democracy, expressing concerns for their futures and the belief that the current system has failed them.  In the past, foreigners have looked to American democracy as a model to replicate in their countries.  Sadly, this may no longer be the case.

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Aug 31

Threats Against Politicians in Canada Becoming More Frequent and Inevitable

by bcurry

Verbal and physical threats against American politicians have been a constant factor in U.S. politics, with the most severe being the assassinations or attempts to assassinate politicians since that of John F. Kennedy.  In Canada, threats against political figures have grown in the last decade in particular.  During the 2019 federal electoral campaign, even Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced by his security detail in an “unprecedented” step to wear a bulletproof vest at a number of rallies.  It was also unprecedented to have a heavily armed uniformed Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) tactical team in plain sight around Trudeau, since normally they are in the background and out of site.  Just recently, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was verbally accosted by a man in a hotel lobby in Grande Prairie, Alberta.  The incident, although Ms. Freeland was not physically hurt, is now under investigation by the RCMP for potential criminal charges.  At the moment, there is an election in the province of Quebec where emotions run high over the provincial government’s handling of the pandemic.  Security around Quebec’s provincial party leaders appears to be high in the early days of the election campaign.  The potential of threats has forced Party Quebecois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to wear a bulletproof vest to keep him safe.  His party certainly recalls the deadly election-night shooting that marred the victory party of former PQ premier Pauline Marois in September 2012.  Quebec provincial police spokesman Nicolas Scholtus did not confirm whether security around the campaigning leaders was higher than in previous years, but he acknowledged that there was a rise in reports of harassment or threats directed at Quebec politicians during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Numerous Canadian politicians of all stripes condemned recent incidents of hateful threats against the PM and ministers in his cabinet, especially where female ministers and members of Parliament are targeted.  The general theme of condemnation is that such behaviour has no place in Canada.  They sincerely believe that people all run for office to promote dialogue on important public policy issues, and harassment like this cannot be tolerated.  However, simply issuing statements of condemnation most likely will not have an impact on the current political environment.  The RCMP and other enforcement agencies will have to continue to collect intelligence and conduct threat assessments for all events that political leaders attend. 

Michael Kempa, an associate professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa, pointed out that politicians everywhere have been facing increased threats due to what he calls “the new reality of polarization and violence that’s directed against public facing political leaders and other activists in our community.”  Professor Kempa attributes this in part to the spread of U.S. political culture, where threat levels have been high for years, and also to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Canadians can no longer rely on a tradition of promoting civility in political dialogue.  In an age of social media and digital conspirators, it has become difficult to lower the temperature of the political climate.  There are just too many disgruntled and angry individuals out there who are convinced that threats and violence are the only way in which to confront governments and politicians.  Unfortunately, the continuing outrage by Donald Trump followers after the F.B.I.’s seizure of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida residence, has only contributed to further threats against government agencies, including the U.S. Justice Department and even the National Archives.  It doesn’t help that one of Mr. Trump’s closest allies, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, issued a similar warning that Mr. Trump quickly reposted on his social media platform.  Mr. Graham, in a Fox News appearance on August 28th, predicted that if the search of Mar-a-Lago led to a prosecution of the former president, there would be “riots in the streets”.

Canada has its own radical factions, as demonstrated by the occupation of its capital, Ottawa, by members of the truckers’ convoy for three weeks in January of this year.  There is little doubt that federal and provincial politicians will be a target for disgruntled individuals and groups.  One can only hope that there will be no resulting physical assaults on politicians and leaders.  I’m afraid that given the current polarization within Canadian society that such eventuality cannot be prevented, despite heightened security measures for political figures.

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Aug 14

Once Donald Trump’s Actions Were Considered Farcical, Now They’re Considered Dangerous

by bcurry

During the former president’s term in office, Donald Trump often became the butt of many a comedian jokes, most notably on NBC’s Saturday Night Live.  Yes, previous presidents have been made fun of from time to time.  However, once Trump lost the election and his declaration that the election was stolen led to the January 6th assault on the Capitol, he has now become even more dangerous.  No longer as the president, recent events have shown how his actions and statements have created a precarious situation.  The search this past week by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of his private residence at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida., was one more incident of now citizen Trump believing he is above the law.  The legal search appeared to be part of a long-running investigation of whether documents — some of them top-secret — were taken there instead of being sent to the National Archives when Trump left office.  There could be several violations falling under federal statutes, including the Espionage Act and Presidential Records Act.  Apparently, about twelve boxes containing classified documents were seized by the FBI.

Immediately after news broke of the FBI search at Trump’s Florida residence, posts began appearing on Truth Social, the Twitter-like social media platform backed by former Trump’s media and technology company.  Truth Social users called for civil war and advocated for violence against the FBI, some of the posts remaining online days after they were originally posted, according to NBC News.  Unfortunately, a number of Republicans and media sources such as Fox News and Breibart News attacked the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), specifically Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray and the FBI agents as part of the Democrat’s plot to tarnish the reputation of Donald Trump and to prevent him from running again in 2024.  According to the warrant and receipt of what authorities seized, Trump is being investigated for possibly breaking three federal laws: removal or destruction of records, obstructing an investigation and violating the Espionage Act.  Serious stuff!

The result of Trump’s accusing the DOJ and FBI of contributing to a witch hunt and that he had done nothing wrong, talk of violence by his supporters continues to mount.  Threats have been made against the federal judge who authorized the warrant to search for classified material and FBI agents whose names were on the warrant and receipt.  Then on August 11th, a 42-year-old Ohio man, identified as Ricky W. Shiffer, showed up at the Cincinnati field office of the FBI with an AR-15-style rifle.  Subsequently, he was shot to death after firing multiple times at the police during a standoff.  Mr. Shiffer’s social media posts later revealed that he was full of rage about, among other things, the search at Mar-a-Lago.

As Alan Feuer of the New York Times notes, as right-wing rhetoric escalates, so do threats and violence.  In his August 13th article, he refers to a study by Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence.  Professor Pape conducted half a dozen nationwide polls since the Jan. 6th attack and has repeatedly found the same alarming results: that between 15 million and 20 million American adults believe that violence would be justified to return Mr. Trump to office.  Instead of defusing the situation, Donald Trump, along with his supporters, continue to promote conspiracy theories.  He believes that a number of current investigations are simply examples of his ‘persecution’ by Democratic administrations in Washington and New York State.  Once again, the whole affair is a hoax.  He and members of his family have even suggested, ridiculously, that the classified documents were likely planted by the FBI during the search.  Even former Vice-President Mike Pence was quoted as sharing the “deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search of the personal residence of President Trump.”  Pence declared that after years where FBI agents were found to be acting on political motivation during his administration, the appearance of continued partisanship by the DOJ had to be addressed.  Remember how Trump fired then FBI Director James Comey in 2017 because he refused to pledge his loyalty to the President, no matter what!

Unless the hostile rhetoric and threats are quickly dealt with, there is little doubt that more violent incidents could occur, particularly against the targeted individuals noted above.  Obviously, the investigation by the DOJ and FBI is no joke.  This is the first time since Nixon and ‘Watergate’ that a former President is under investigation for violating several federal statutes.  My understanding is that no one is above the law.  However, under the current climate, the political ramifications of pursuing Donald Trump could determine whether further violence occurs and what will be the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election.

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Jul 27

Republicans Facing Several Major Serious Issues Within Party Before Mid-Terms

by bcurry

Well, I just learned from a Washington Post report that former President Trump’s actions are now being investigated by Justice Department prosecutors as part of an inquiry into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.  Recent testimony before the January 6th House committee also appears to suggest that there is enough evidence to conclude that the former president and some of his allies might have conspired to commit fraud and obstruction by misleading Americans about the outcome of the 2020 election and attempting to overturn the result.  The Republican Party establishment must be greatly disturbed by what is coming out of the committee’s public hearings, although many Republicans in Congress are still boohooing the hearings as a Democrat plot to malign Trump’s reputation.

However, Trump is not helping his case by his recent speeches where he continues to claim that the election was stolen.  What’s worst is the fact that a recent poll of Republican voters taken by the New York Times/Siena College showed that 49 percent said they would back Trump if he ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.  This compared with just 6 percent who said they would vote for former Vice-President Mike Pence and 25 percent who supported Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.  The Trump vs. Pence public squabbles has caused many Republicans’ to have frustrations and reservations about a possible 2024 Trump campaign, suggesting that it could cause large numbers of Republican voters to defect from the party in a general election.  Donald Trump and his rowdy supporters won’t just go away!

In addition, it has been reported that online fundraising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.  Exacerbating the fundraising problems for Republicans is that Trump continues to be the party’s dominant fundraiser.  Indeed, pro-Trump super PACs had amassed more than $100 million by last summer.  Yet virtually none of the tens of millions of dollars he raised has gone toward defeating Democrats.  The money has instead funded his political team and retribution agenda against Republicans who have crossed him.  Of course, money alone does not win political races, but any lack of funds can hamper party campaigns.

Then there has been the recent decision by the primarily conservative Supreme Court in overturning Roe v. Wade that has set off an array of attacks by women’s groups over the withdrawal of abortion services and the banning of abortion practices in Republican governed states.  Take this issue into consideration and the potential attack by Republicans on LGBTQ+ issues, including same sex marriages, there is a growing movement against what are being depicted as extremist right-wing policies.  The Democrats may be able to use the far right Republican platforms in their mid-term campaign to galvanize their rank and file and to secure the support of frustrated interest groups.  Much will depend on how Congressional Republicans handle certain initiatives in the coming months, including that which would protect the legitimacy of same sex marriages.

At the state level, there is little doubt that in those governed by Republicans there are still enough conservative votes to win the day and maintain their power.  However, at the federal level, the Republicans definitely appear to be in trouble, especially if Donald Trump is capable of riling up his base.  It will be interesting to see if the Republicans can resolve their evident split within the party before the mid-terms and most certainly in time for the next presidential election.  To the distress of the Republican establishment, Donald Trump and his allies are continuing to schedule events and are raising money for initiatives intended to make the former president a central player in the midterm elections, and possibly to set the stage for another run for the White House. 

One would love to be a fly on the wall at behind-the-scene discussions among leading Republican strategists.  I’m certain that they have a lot of serious issues to talk about!

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Jul 21

Incredible Scenes of Democratic Representatives in Congress Being Arrested During Protests

by bcurry

Earlier this past week during an abortion rights protest over the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, at least 17 Democratic lawmakers were among the 35 people arrested by the Capitol Police for blocking traffic outside the courthouse.  The arrest of lawmakers in this manner is something almost unheard of in Canada.  Canadian legislators tend to be somewhat docile when outside the House of Commons in Ottawa.  The most that Members of Parliament (MP) will do is to attend peaceful protests on the front lawn of Parliament’s centre block, sometimes to speak in support of some cause or another.  I can’t remember the last time that an MP was arrested as part of any protest in Ottawa.  However, back in March 2018, two federal politicians, including Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and New Democratic Party (NDP) MP Kennedy Stewart, were arrested at a protest against Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain federally approved pipeline expansion in Burnaby, British Columbia.

On the other hand, in Washington, such incidences among House Representatives appear to have happened in other cases.  Indeed, it was reported that Rep. Judy Chu, D-Calif., was arrested last month outside the Supreme Court for protesting.  In July 2021, Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, was arrested at the Hart Senate Office Building for protesting in favor of voting rights legislation.

Protests are protected by the First Amendment of the American Constitution, but like in Canada, there is still the need for protesters to abide by laws.  In the most recent incident, the U.S. Capitol Police tweeted about the situation: “Demonstrators are starting to block First Street, NE. It is against the law to block traffic, so officers are going to give our standard three warnings before they start making arrests.”  In light of the minor violation, those arrested were later released at the scene, with police telling the ABC News they were likely to face a $US50 ($72.48 Canadian) fine.  Among those arrested was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, who became the youngest woman elected to the House of Representatives, and has rocketed to political notoriety.  The arrests of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and the other Democrats resulted in coverage by a large number of news media outlets and extensively by social media sources.  There is little doubt that this type of media coverage involving lawmakers gives a protest a good deal of press, good and bad.

Former charismatic Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who was PM from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984, once exclaimed to the house speaker that opposition MPs were nobodies once they were “50 yards from Parliament Hill”.  Of course, that was before social media and daily digital news.  Most recently, several opposition Conservative MPs, including leadership contender Pierre Poilievre, met with the illegal Trucker Convoy which had occupied the streets in front of Parliament for over three weeks in February of this year.  The New York Times wrote that the Conservatives, the only other party to form a government in Canada, were readying for a fight and saw the truckers and their followers not as outcasts but as political currency that can bring in votes — and money.  With his photo-op, Poilievre was depicted as the protesters’ political champion at the time, although as the illegal occupation continued Conservative support was condemned by many Canadians, and most certainly by those living in Ottawa at the time.  No other party MPs met with the protesters, viewing the occupation as being unlawful, eventually being removed by the police and leading to the arrests of dozens of protesters.  The social and economic impact of the occupation ultimately led to the federal government’s invocation of the Emergencies Act to facilitate the removal of occupying vehicles from streets within the Parliamentary precinct in Ottawa.

In general, Canadian legislators tend to avoid participation in protests, many of which occur in the capital on a daily basis.  Even members of the left-wing NDP are normally careful not to participate in protests outside of the legislature, particularly those involving extremists.  The one big difference in Canada is the more apolitical system used for appointing federal justices, including those appointed to the Supreme Court.  With the highly politicized recent decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court — comprised of four conservative-leaning justices who were appointed during the Trump administration — it is not surprising that protests have erupted outside the Supreme Court.  What’s surprising is the participation by members of Congress in such protests and their subsequent arrests by Capitol Police!  This is something that is unheard of in Canada — perhaps somewhat regrettably in certain cases.  However, time will tell for our “nobodies”.

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Jul 18

Potential for Insurgency Grows Everyday in U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

Two recent events in the U.S. and in Canada have clearly illustrated the growth of insurgent groups: the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol and the three week occupation by a Trucker Convoy in Ottawa, Canada, in February of this year.  In both cases, various groups, including radical right extremists, proclaimed openly their intention to overthrow the current governments and forcibly replace them with another regime of some sort.  What these two events clearly illustrated is that these groups have become well organized, funded and are led openly by radicalized leaders.  What is even more clearly evident is that the insurgents are still operating despite many of their leaders and members having been arrested and imprisoned following the above two events.

What is common between the American and Canadian movements is that they are continuing to recruit, especially among ex-military and police veterans.  Several veterans played a significant role in Canada, attempting to garner support and credibility among the public for their causes.  In addition, these individuals bring training and military/law enforcement experience to the movements, as well as contributing intelligence for a movement.  The next inevitable stage is one that leads to the formulation of an armed quasi-militia capable of carrying out a few isolated attacks.  Weapons and explosives were seized in the Capitol attack and at the unlawful Coutts, Alberta, border blockade, with subsequent charges being laid in each case.  Four persons arrested with weapons in Alberta were tied to Canada’s Diagolon far-right extremist militia group, well known to the authorities.  In January 2021, a 22-year-old Canadian man crossed the border into Detroit where the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s “tactical terrorism response team” found an assault rifle and two other guns, plus extremist white-supremacy material on his cellphone.  Connections among American and Canadian white-supremacy groups have been well documented, a number of whom are hoping to promote race and civil wars.

These movements are allowed to grow until you have more open insurgency, when you start to have a series of consistent attacks, and it becomes impossible to ignore.  What is clearly evident is that potential insurgencies tend to be much more decentralized, often fought by multiple groups.  There is not one overall governing group within both countries.  Leadership can most often extend to more local community levels, making recruitment a lot easier and training and planning a lot more difficult for authorities to monitor.  Cases of violent activity are deemed to be isolated cases by local authorities and even ignored, often by law enforcement.  However, when one adds up such events involving threatening protests, one cannot help but conclude that they represent a much larger campaign, organized and funded by extremists.

There will be those who will claim that alluding to insurgency movements is no more than another form of fearmongering.  However, such arguments cannot explain away that certain groups believe that democracies are backsliding.  There’s a clear sense that they firmly believe that governments are not that legitimate.  These are angry people who are unhappy with governments and open to being exploited by insurgent groups.  Unfortunately, some more ‘populist’ politicians, ala Donald Trump, have taken advantage of the situation for political gain.  Some observers claim that this is what is happening inside the Republican Party in the U.S. and among certain leadership hopefuls within the national Conservative Party and in the Peoples Party in Canada.  Unfortunately, appearing publicly alongside or among members of extremist groups can only give more legitimacy to such movements in the eyes of the public at large.

One thing is for certain, democratically elected governments can no longer give a blind eye to the growth of insurgency movements in either country.  Recent events have shown that such movements are openly promoting deliberate and organized attacks on our democratic institutions.  If citizens and their elected officials don’t recognize the potential danger to our democracy, than they are playing a very dangerous game.  We can no longer ignore the growth of these movements, both locally and nationally.  To do so, is to invite even more future violent and unlawful attacks.

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Jun 25

Far More Political And Societal Division Among Americans Than Among Canadians

by bcurry

In July in both the U.S. and Canada, people will be respectively celebrating the birth of their countries.  However, these past few years have demonstrated a concerning growth in divisive politics, much more so in the U.S. than in Canada.  Most recently, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade allowing states to ban abortion.  This is despite the fact that polls have shown that only one in ten Americans want an absolute ban on abortion.  In Canada, the right to abortion is supported by all major political parties and the vast majority of Canadians.  When it comes to restrictions on accessibility to guns, the majority of Americans support increasing restrictions to gun ownership, while the gun lobby holds sway in Congress and many states.  Supported by the majority in Canada, there are restrictions on guns, especially handguns and military-style weapons — a number of the latter are outright banned.  Although numerous American organizations and groups have lobbied to eliminate the death penalty in half of the states where it exists, Canada did away with the death penalty decades ago.  It is now believed that the recent Supreme Court’s decision could also lead to a reconsideration of Americans’ right to same sex marriage, something which has been legalized in Canada for sometime now.

A new poll of Canadians by the U.K.’s well known pollster Lord Michael Ashcroft showed that Canada, rather than the polarized society on display in America, is described as a nation that is proud and hopeful.  He concluded that most Canadians are a lot more confident, empathetic, proud and trusting of their own democracy and national identity, frequently seeking a middle ground on controversial issues.  Fully seven in ten Canadians think Canada is one of the best places to live and multiculturalism is a healthy and important element of Canadian society and thus encourages immigration to the country.  Yes, there are some small vocal dissident groups who surface from time to time in Canada, but nowhere near the numbers of American right-wing and social conservative groups who even emerged to contest the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.  Thankfully, there is no equivalent to Donald Trump in Canada.

The current infringement on the rights of American women with the overturning of Roe vs. Wade will further increase the division among Americans across the country.  This will become a highly contentious issue in the upcoming November elections, with pro-life and pro-choice candidates slugging it out on the hastings.  When a draft copy of the decision was leaked in May, even Donald Trump began telling friends and advisers that it would anger suburban women, a group who helped tilt the 2020 race to President Joe Biden.  He felt that would lead to a backlash against Republicans in the November midterm elections.  However, as per the New York Times, with the decision Trump put out a statement taking a victory lap, including applauding himself for sticking by his choice of nominees.  On top of which, the court’s decision is unfortunately expected to disproportionately affect minority women who already face limited access to health care.  In addition, for those women who can afford to come to Canada, Canadian abortion services are currently examining the potential impact in welcoming these Americans.

With respect to another grouping, our indigenous people of North America, both the U.S. and Canada in the past had used residential schools in an attempt to assimilate indigenous populations by eliminating their culture and languages.  However, unlike in the U.S., Canadians began a national reconciliation process reflecting honestly on the darkest parts of history and attempting to move forward to correct past abuses.  Canadians of all backgrounds have come forward to fully support the truth and reconciliation initiatives at all levels of society.  The same issue has barely been recognized in the States.

All in all, one cannot but conclude that there is far more political and societal division among Americans than among Canadians.  The next decade could prove to be one of the most explosive in American history, with the current polarization of American society almost as great as that preceding the American Civil War between the North and South over the abolition of slavery.  Only time will tell.  Not a great time to be living in the States!

Canada Donald Trump Extremist Groups Gun Control Indigenous Issues Populism Populism in Canada Presidential Election 2020 Republican Party US US Politics Women's Issues

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