FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Dec 7

New Political and Social-Economic Realm of Diversity in America

by bcurry

Back in March of this year, the Biden administration ordered changes to a range of federal surveys to gather more detailed information about the nation’s ethnic and racial makeup.  Why is this important?  For example, most people of Middle Eastern and North African descent reportedly are currently classified as “white” in U.S. census data.  According to the Census Bureau estimates, this represented about 3.5 million people falling into that category.  They represent for example people whose descent is Lebanese, Egyptian, Iranian, Syrian, Iraqi, and Israeli.  Under the new format, people of Middle Eastern and North African descent will have their own category.  Officials of the Office of Management and Budget, which oversaw the review of the current survey questions, said the changes were needed in part to make surveys more accurate.

The reason more accurate surveys are increasingly important is that America is increasing becoming more diverse.  The non-white population has nearly doubled since 1990 to over 40% in 2023, as the proportion of non-Hispanic whites decreased from 75% to 58%.  According to the USAFacts Team, the nation’s non-white population has almost doubled over the past four decades, growing from about 24% of the population in 1990 to over 40% in 2023.  Furthermore, according to the US Census Bureau, the multiracial population is projected to be the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group over the next four decades, followed by the Asian or Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations.  The non-Hispanic white population is expected to continue shrinking.

The above announced changes most likely have the potential to rankle conservatives who believe that the nation’s focus on diversity has already gone too far.  Interestingly, both the Republicans and Democrats during the recent election attempted vigorously to cater to Blacks, Latinos and Hispanics to have their votes which were deemed critical in several states.  This time around, the Trump campaign notably targeted those communities with diverse populations.  In many cases, the non-White populace was just as concerned about the economy and immigration as many of his White supporters.  Something that the Democratic Party failed to fully realize during its campaign — a startling factor given Pamela Harris being a Black candidate.

Now one has to ask is whether Donald Trump will allocate more positions in his cabinet to better reflect the nation’s diversity?  So far, the answer appears to be a resounding “no”.  Specifically selecting people from such bodies as Fox News certainly doesn’t help.  He may have to go outside his comfort zone!  In addition, federal policies will have to better reflect the importance of diverse populations.  Those who broadly support the new survey questions — academics, civil liberties advocates and racial and ethnic interest groups among them — say they would help promote greater fairness in schools, housing, hiring and other aspects of society where census data is used.  I’m not so sure that Trump’s immediate advisory body, made up mainly of rich White men, is going to facilitate appropriately dealing with such issues.

Favouring one group over another will lead to even more division within the country.  Hopefully, the Republicans in Congress will appreciate this matter in their deliberations.  Many marginalized groups are made up of persons from diverse communities, and are affected particularly hard by any reduction in socio-economic benefit programs.  Such policies would no doubt lead to increased hardships for these people.  Cutting such programs in the name of “efficiency” should not be an option in these dire times, accentuated by growing poverty, homelessness and inadequate medical care.  One has to question what Trump means when he proposes to make America great again?  Just who will actually benefit?

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Nov 26

Trump’s Tariff Threats Against Canada and Mexico Will Hurt Americans Equally

by bcurry

Here we go again, Donald Trump’s bargaining concept is getting in the way of economic realities.  Threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican products entering the U.S. is simply nonsense, and most likely in violation of the current U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.  This agreement, by-the-way signed during the former President’s first term, is up for re-negotiation in two years. 

The U.S. is the largest importer of goods in the world, with Mexico, China and Canada its top three suppliers.  Take for example the North American automotive sector which relies on integrative parts and components from both Canada and Mexico, whereby auto plants on both sides of the border and some production lines would most likely screech to a halt.  Not only can higher tariffs cause increased inflation, but they would also cause job losses in all three countries.  The tariffs, if implemented, could dramatically raise prices for consumers on everything from gas to automobiles to agricultural products.

For some reason, President-elect Trump believes that putting economic pressure on Mexico and Canada would force both countries to tighten up their borders against illegal migrants and the influx of drugs like the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl.  Mexico’s efforts to fight drugs — which are manufactured by Mexican cartels using chemicals imported from China — have apparently weakened in the last year.  However, the new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has argued that the flow of drugs is more of a problem of public health and drug consumption in American society, and rightly so.  On the other hand, both Mexico and Canada have an argument when it comes to the influx of weapons smuggled in from the United States, estimated to account for over 90% of arms smuggled into both countries.

Unfortunately, neither Mexico nor Canada like to be bullied into adherence to some needless policies by an American president, past or present.  President Sheinbaum has already declared that the introduction of new tariffs would result in retaliatory measures by Mexico.  The Canadian government is already examining the ramifications of increased tariffs, hoping to open up a further dialogue with the new American administration.  Hoping to avoid a trade war, both countries have indicated that they are willing to engage in talks on the issues at hand. 

What’s obviously a shot across the bow, Trump appears to think that these threats are an effective manoeuvre as part of some form of future negotiating tactics.  However, the resulting consequences will be dire for all parties concerned.  Canada in particular has clamped down on the flow of fentanyl both into and out of the country.  More aggressive attempts have also been made to deal with the influx of weapons from the U.S.  There is little doubt that these are security issues on both sides of the border.  Canada is also concerned about the potential influx of migrants from the U.S. as a result of Trump’s talks about a “massive deportation” program of illegal migrants during his second term.  Northern border security is just as important to Canadians as it is to Americans, and is nowhere close to American concerns over its southern border security.

I believe that the Canadian government will take a more cautious and respectful approach to Trump’s threat than the Mexican government which has warned the U.S. against any blatant attempts to subjugate its sovereignty through such threats.  As noted, Sheinbaum’s bristly response suggests that Trump faces a much different Mexican president than he did in his first term.  As for Canada, time will tell.  In addition, federally there will be an election next year and Trump’s administration will have to face a new Canadian government.  Unfortunately, the entire situation does not look good for the future of all three countries, both economically and politically.

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Nov 21

Angry Young Males Revolt In America

by bcurry

Back in 2013, I read a very interesting book by Michael S. Kimmel entitled: “Angry White Men: American Masculinity at the End of an Era.”  In it, he described an increase in anger in the seismic economic, social and political shifts that have so transformed the American landscape among young white men.  Downward mobility, increased racial and gender equality, and a tenacious clinging to an anachronistic ideology of masculinity left many white men feeling betrayed and bewildered.  “Angry white male” is a term for white men holding conservative or right-wing views. Today, the term is often used when talking about the politics of the U.S. The term mostly refers to a group which emerged in the early 1990s. They reacted to what they thought were injustices created by “affirmative action.”  An angry white male is opposed to anti-discrimination policies (such as affirmative action) that benefit racial minorities and women.  Supporters of Donald Trump are sometimes said to largely include angry white men.  Today, one might add young Black and Hispanic men to their numbers, especially now that affirmative action is no longer in play.

Back in the 1960s, when activists pushed for laws to equalize opportunities for women, girls had been much less likely than boys to graduate from college.  However, a recent study indicated that by 2015, the situation had flipped.  Boys were much less likely than girls to make it through college and reap the premium jobs that came with degrees.  Young men were not just getting lower-paying jobs than young women, they were also more likely to leave the job market altogether.  This left many of them living with their parents and gave them lots of free time to spend on video games and in chat rooms.  One research team looked at national time-use surveys and found that young men between the ages of twenty-one and thirty spent 12 percent less time on paid work in 2015 than they had ten years earlier — a much sharper drop than was seen in any other demographic group. The newly freed-up time was spent largely in front of a computer.  The amount of time that men under thirty dedicated to video games and “recreational computer time” rose to 520 hours a year in 2015, 99 hours more than what it had been ten years earlier; a significantly greater amount of time and a sharper increase than was seen among older men and women of all ages.1

Even when it comes to investing and playing the markets on-line, young men dominate the scene, preferring to gamble in day trading in order to possibly become wealthier as well as clearly attaining a high out of risk-taking.  Normally, these men are between 20 and 30 years old and live at home with a lot of time on their hands.2  This phenomenon was particularly exasperated by the pandemic, which also continued to have negative impacts on men with respect to  the post-pandemic labour market and low wages.

The results of the American elections illustrated a clear statistical divide between more educated males and lesser educated males, with the majority of the prior supporting Kamala Harris and the latter Donald Trump.  In particular, young men in the so-call working and middle classes are unhappy with the way the economy has gone for them.  They are also still angered over what they perceive to be as unfair and unequal treatment when it comes to women, whether real or not.  This placed Harris at a clear disadvantage during the election when Democrats obviously failed to address the issue.  The Republicans used conservative social media effectively to appeal to the grievances of young working, unemployed and underemployed men.  Policies pushed by the Democrats, including reproductive rights and gender-based ones, did not appeal to most young men.

Canada is not immune to the lure of conservative policies which tend to attract young Canadian males to their political thinking, all of which will have a direct impact in the federal election expected to happen next year.  Unless there is a drastic change in the economy and labour market, one can expect a similar backlash against the current Liberal government whose social policies will no doubt be a major target by conservative groups.

1. Richard V. Reeves and Ember Smith: “Boys Left Behind: Education Gender Gaps Across the US” (The Brooking Institution, October 12, 2022)  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/boys-left-behind-education-gender-gaps-across-the-us/.

2. ”The Trolls of Wall Street (How the Outcasts and Insurgents are Hacking the Markets)”: Nathaniel Popper (HarperCollins Publishers, New York, N.Y., 2024) p. 53

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Nov 9

Environment Was Barely Mentioned By Presidential Candidates

by bcurry

Despite being the hottest issue on our planet at this time, issues concerning the environment were barely mentioned by either presidential candidate during the debate or while campaigning.  Indeed, what we heard was a continuous slogan about “drill baby drill” and the need to increase the output of the American oil and gas sector. 

It has just been announced that this was the hottest year on record.  Across the U.S. and Canada, one has had to deal with extreme weather events, including hurricanes off the gulf states, wild fires in California, New Jersey and Alberta, drought across all American states except Alaska and Kentucky, flooding across the North-eastern states, heat wave records this past summer, etc., etc.  This left Americans and Canadians with billions of dollars in damages, especially to communities and their infrastructures. 

Nearly 200 countries will gather next week for the U.N. climate summit, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan.  As usual, reaching a consensus for a deal among so many can be difficult.  29

China produces the most energy from climate-warming fossil fuels and also from renewable energy sources.  China retains the developing country designation in U.N. climate negotiations that began in the 1990s.  As such, it says the United States and other industrialised countries should move first and fastest with climate action.

The world’s second largest emitter and largest historic emitter, the United States, comes to COP
29 following an election that will put Donald Trump back in power in 2025.  Trump’s victory has reduced the chance of a strong deal on a new global finance target, or an agreement to increase the pool of countries that should contribute.  President-Elect Trump has promised to again pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement and has labelled efforts to boost green energy a “scam”.

The most immediate concern will be over how the least developed countries will cope with the impact of recent severe weather patterns associated with climate change, including those in Africa, South and Central America and in Asia.  Moreover, this group’s 45 nations are also highly vulnerable to climate change but have contributed little to it. They are asking for significant funding from developed countries, preferably in the form of grants. They also want more money to flow into the loss and damage fund.  The question of how to deal with potential migrant movements from these countries will also have to be dealt with.

Both Canada and the U.S. are failing to meet their emissions reduction targets set out in 2015.  There is a real danger that both countries will return to supporting the fossil fuel sector in order to meet short-term economic goals.  President-Elect Trump has made it very clear that he wants to see more fracking across the U.S., and federal lands and protected areas will be more open to drilling.  He is particularly non-supportive of renewable energy initiatives and will cut back a number of federal programs and policies in support of that sector.  Canada, and Alberta in particular, will more than likely seek to encourage the U.S. to import more of our oil and gas with new pipeline construction, something denied by previous Democrat administrations.  Even Kamala Harris changed her position on limiting fracking in order to garner the support of states such as Pennsylvania.

All of these developments tend to lessen one’s optimism about finding ways to reduce greenhouse emissions, despite a lot of unsubstantiated rhetoric by industrialized countries.  When Americans were polled and asked which issues were the most important to them in the election, the environment and climate change was way down the list.  They obviously gave more import to the immediate state of the economy, jobs and immigration.  Once again, the issues surrounding climate change will have to take a back seat to such issues, despite growing concerns over its evident impact on our lands, agriculture and the oceans.

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Oct 7

Is a Potential Leader of the Free World Mentally Unstable?

by bcurry

Needless-to-say, most readers would immediately know that I’m talking about Donald Trump, who at 78 is beginning to display certain characteristics associated with senility and cognitive decline.  His recent speeches and social media commentary appear to indicate that he is ever more confused, forgetful, incoherent or disconnected from reality.  I declare this not with any malice against the former president, but with a great deal of concern over his ability to fulfill presidential responsibilities.  It’s also pretty bad when you have his vice-presidential candidate attempting to explain or interpret what Trump meant in his nonsensical remarks. 

There is no longer anything particularly funny about the situation as it stands — despite late night talk show hosts using Trump’s commentary as fodder for comedic purposes.  His campaign has refused to release medical records, instead simply pointing to a one-page letter apparently released in July by his former White House doctor reporting that Mr. Trump was “doing well”, particularly after being grazed by a bullet in an assassination attempt.  I believe that that unfortunate attempt and subsequent second attempt may have indeed affected his outlook and temperament.  Concerns about his age have also heightened now that he is trying to return to office, concerns that were not alleviated by his unfounded debate claim about Haitian immigrants “eating pets” in Springfield, Ohio.  After his debate with Kamala Harris, his poor showing raised a number of vital questions about his cognitive capabilities.

What is also interesting and something that I have noticed in various interviews given by Trump, he has a great deal of difficulty answering specific questions directed to him.  This is not just a political manoeuvre of avoidance of an issue, but also demonstrates on his part the apparent lack of ability to focus.  In his speeches, he rambles on about all kinds of weird things, from talking about sharks, malaria and Hannibal Lecter: none of which makes any sense from an issue and policy point of view.  As well, he’s has had some pretty noticeable moments of obvious confusion.

What does this mean for America’s allies?  Right now, countries such as Canada, the U.K. and France must be wondering what is going on in the American presidential election!  Out of respect for diplomacy and non-interference is another country’s elections, their leaders are not saying anything out loud.  However, in private, these allies are very concerned to say the least as to Trump’s general behaviour, and especially his continuing outbursts, blatant lies and overt conspiracy theories.  With a month left before the final voting in November, other countries must be holding their breath, wondering what will be the eventual outcome in what many have described as the most important election of this century.  Trump’s proposed economic, defence and foreign policy positions are being studied to death with much trepidation.

We live today in volatile world where strong leadership is essential and close cooperation among democratic countries is a must.  This requires forward and sensible policy and decision making on the part of all leaders.  It is time for younger leadership in order to support the many current and future needs of our new century.  We cannot afford to have leaders who are stuck in the past and without the necessary skills to move us forward into the future.  Surely, most citizens today recognize the need to be able to effectively tackle the important issues, everything from foreign wars, new technologies and climate change.  The most immediate danger however is that Donald Trump could become the next president of the United States of America!

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Aug 12

The Comedy Hour In American Politics

by bcurry

Let’s get serious.  Anyone watching the American political scene now must be scratching their heads!  Since President Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris became the Democrat’s presidential candidate, a relatively chaotic situation has emerged.  Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have completely gone off the rails.  In an obvious defensive posture, their attacks on both Harris and her V.P. selection, Tim Walz, have become ludicrous.  Any outside observer like myself can only laugh at some of the things emerging from the two Republican candidates.  Nothing really surprising about Trump and mini-Trump Vance!  Their accusations should become good fodder for the likes of Saturday Night Live.  Moreover, thankfully we have nothing comparable in Canada
at this time.

It all began with Trump questioning whether Harris is actually Black.  Of course, he had originally questioned whether or not former President Obama was actually born in the U.S. Vance then attacks Time Walz over his twenty-four years of military service.  Since when does one veteran attack another veteran over his service to the country?  Then you have Trump declaring that Harris in not “intelligent” enough to run the country.  As if Trump should talk about someone’s intelligence!  Vance’s comments suggesting that Democrat’s are “anti-child” tells one more about his state of mind than anything else.  Expect more name-calling and nonsense from both Trump and Vance.

The fact of the matter is that Kamala Harris has demonstrated that she can be a good campaigner.  She has reinvigorated the Democratic Party and now has a great start to the finish, which the polls and the huge increase in campaign donations have demonstrated.  The emergence of Harris is just what the U.S. presidential campaign needed.  Her crowds and momentum just keep going.  One now has a real race and a real choice.  Trump is now the old guy running on the same old same old ticket.  I can’t wait until the upcoming debates.  Everything indicates that Trump and his Republican Party are in real trouble.  This will no doubt lead to more of Trump’s extreme rhetoric and more and more lies.  Nothing will surprise me.  Unfortunately, this may no longer be a laughing matter. Too much is at stake for not only the U.S.
and democracy, but also for the rest of the free world.

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Jul 21

Concerns Over Refugee Flows Into the U.S. Are Decades in the Making

by bcurry

The current issues surrounding the influx of refugees over the Mexican-U.S. border have been decades in the making.  It doesn’t matter whether it was a Democratic or Republican administration, American policies and initiatives have created the past and current issues surrounding refugees and so-called illegals, particularly from Central American countries.  Anyone who would like to examine an excellent historical accounting of these policies should read a 2024 book by Jonathan Blitzer entitled: “Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here (The United States, Central America, and The Making of a Crisis)”.  Mr. Blitzer is a well known staff writer at The New Yorker.  He describes not only past U.S. policies supporting autocrats and military regimes in countries such as El Salvador and Guatemala, but he also relates stories which put a face on several migrants.

He noted as follows: “From the 1980s to the early 2000s, the story of the southern border was about the United States and Mexico.  At the time, migrants entering the US tended to be single Mexican men looking for work.  But around 2014, a different population started to arrive on a scale Americans had never before seen.  These were children and families from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras — traveling north to seek asylum.  In just about every respect, the US was unprepared for this shift.”

Notably, each of the last three American presidents have had to deal with a major humanitarian emergency at the border, while also deepening involvement in two major civil wars in Central America, often in the name of fighting communism as alluded to by President Ronald Reagan back in the early 1980s.  While rebels in these countries were fighting for people against authoritarian regimes, social injustice and military atrocities, the U.S. was backing those same regimes through military aid and covert operations carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).  Government led violence and massacres became common place, forcing many families and individuals to flee these countries.

Today, one can add Venezuela to the list as the most recent migrants are from that single country.  Many Venezuelans had expected to join large existing communities of their compatriots in places such as Florida and Texas.  How did the governors of some states react to this latest influx?  They simply began a program of busing or flying recent migrants to cities such as New York, Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia.  Interestingly, the destinations were cities run by Democrats who supported the Biden administration’s more open immigration policy. Soon, some neighbourhoods in those cities started looking like Texas border towns.

As reported recently by The New York Times, in two years Texas alone bused more than 119,000 people to Democrat-led cities, shifting both migration patterns and the debate over immigration.  The list of targeted cities apparently just keeps expanding.  As noted, Texas governor Greg Abbott took what otherwise might have been the slow diffusion of migrants from the border to cities and towns across the U.S., and directed it at just a few places.  The White House called it a “political stunt.”  Such expensive state policies of course do nothing to address the real issues as to why people are fleeing these countries in the first place.  The U.S. has to better address the realities of violence, poverty, cartels and the drug trade, and the inability of Mexico itself to deal with the migrant problem, both economically and politically.  The detrimental impact of climate change will only add to the nature of agricultural and industrial decline in that part of the Third World.

What is most disconcerting is that under former President Trump, parents and their children were deliberately split up.  Unfortunately, hundreds of parents who eventually were deported did not even know what had happened to their children in the U.S.  Such separation was inexcusable and inhumane.  Let’s hope that another potential Trump presidency would not introduce such a policy in the name of creating some kind of uncertain deterrence factor. 

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Jul 16

Inordinate Influence of Super PACs in Upcoming U.S. Elections

by bcurry

In my blog back in December 2023, I briefly touched on political action committees (PAC).  Differences in Governance Systems in Canada and the U.S. Do Matter | FROLITICKS  In the United States, a PAC is a tax-exempt organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates those funds to campaigns for or against candidates.  I also noted at that time that there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as PACs and Super PACs.  The term Super PAC has seen occasional use since the 1980s, but now has a well established specific meaning and widespread use derived from federal court decisions made in 2010, including the U.S. Supreme Court.

Now it has been reported that a new group, America PAC, is being funded by several wealthy tech entrepreneurs in Mr. Musk’s social circle and is said to likely draw financial support from the SpaceX and Tesla founder himself.  Apparently, some of Elon Musk’s closest friends have helped start the new Super PAC aimed at helping former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential race.  In the spring, the New York Times reported that one leader of America PAC had told a friend that the group expected to have a major donor who would make donations in four batches, adding up to as much as $160 million over the course of the Trump’s campaign.

I noted in the above blog that one major difference between Canada and the U.S. is how candidates in the election process are funded.  In the U.S. there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as Super PACs.  On the other hand, in Canada contributions to candidates are far less and are regulated by stricter controls enforced by an independent agency, namely Elections Canada. 

Candidates in both dominant American parties have no choice but to depend on PACs to fund their campaigns.  This includes whenever both parties have contested primaries.  Candidates are now forced to compete for the allegiance of a small group of wealthy donors who can write six- and seven-figure checks.  One has to question how much such increasing dependence will influence their positions on policies once elected?  It is also well known that contributions from PACs can also play a major role in influencing sitting members when it comes to ballot initiatives and legislation.  It’s also recognized that many elected politicians have to begin raising campaign funds during their last year in office, often turning again to the previous campaign contributors. 

There are numerous issues before Congress concerning the high tech industry, most notably as to the dominance of several major industry players such as Elon Musk with his evident tilt to the right, especially in commentary on his social media site X.  We know that companies such as Amazon, Google and Meta are facing investigations under the competition rules, while TikTok and X are facing probes intended to force internet companies to more aggressively police their platforms for illicit content.  In addition, both Canada and the U.S. are closely watching the impact of a recent new European Union law meant to encourage competition in the tech industry.  In addition, there are the issues surrounding the use of artificial intelligence (A.I.) within the high tech industry and possible future government legislation.

PACs exist for many other industries/sectors (as reported by the OpenSecrets.org website) and include such big contributors in agribusiness, tobacco, forestry and forest products, communications/electronics, telecom services, construction services, entertainment, defence and defence aerospace, commercial banks, real estate, insurance, health services, and pharmaceutical manufacturing to name but a few.  Obviously, such lobbyists reflect a number of current and important sectors when it comes to government policy reviews and initiatives.  OpenSecrets.org estimated that in the 2018 election the top ten PACs donated a total of over $29 Million (directly, and via their affiliates and subsidiaries) to federal candidates.

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Jul 8

More Than Just the Temperature, Politics Is Getting Very Hot South of the Canadian Border

by bcurry

Canadians are becoming very concerned about what is happening with respect to the upcoming American elections.  Many of us, myself included, closely watched the televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump.  Clearly this was a defining moment for both presidential candidates, and especially for 81 year old Joe Biden.  Almost immediately, one could see that something was not quite right with Biden.  Frankly, it was hard to watch and one could only feel a sense of sorrow and dread for his haltering performance.  Sorry, something is not quite right in the Whitehouse.  All kinds of excuses and denials began to emerge from his immediate family, his Vice-President and several key Democrats.  Now, the pressure is apparently on from several top Democrats to reassess Biden’s continuation of his campaign and leadership.  However, the President insists that he will continue to run and that he is capable of performing the duties of the most important leader of the Western world.

So where does that leave us?  The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and closest ally without doubt.  The prospect of another presidency under Donald Trump has major implications for our relationship, especially in the domestic and international settings.  Given Trump’s campaign promises, nothing that would result has much benefit when looking at future U.S.-Canada relations.  No, this is not an exaggeration!  Right now, the Canadian government is closely examining each and every statement released by Trump.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is seriously lagging in Canadian polls, may even use the possibility of a future Trump administration to suggest that he is most qualified to confront Trump on matters of trade and defence.  Remember that Canada had to fight tooth and nail to get the Americans to agree to Canada’s new trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA — back in 2018.  There are some experts who claim that Canada lost out in agreeing to the USMCA, especially with respect to each country’s monetary and exchange rate policies and their trade in autos.  One has to wonder if Trump will push to reopen the USMCA to the detriment of the Canadian economy?  More tariffs anyone!

Between now and the November elections, a lot of things can happen.  However, time is running out for the Democrats.  Like a significant number of American voters, most Canadians believe that President Biden should step aside.  Given his latest public appearances and debate performance, there is a lot of concern about the President’s cognitive capabilities.  Donald Trump and the Republicans will continue to harp on the President’s general health, using it to increase their polling results.  Most observers believe that President Biden’s chances of winning the election are increasingly slim.  More importantly, what will the situation mean for the Democrats in congressional and state gubernatorial elections?  All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested.  Trump may not get the popular vote, but all he needs is a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win the election.  At this time, the odds are that he could very well achieve this.

In the still unlikely scenario in which Biden steps down as the nominee, the delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago would suddenly be charged with picking a new nominee.  Who that nominee would be is still anyone’s guess.  There is little doubt that an intense and hot debate is going on among Democrats behind the scene.  The heat keeps mounting every day and President Biden must be feeling it right now.  To my knowledge, at no time in the history of United States has such a development occurred between the two major parties!  With all the ongoing speculation, mainstream and social media are having a field day.  When it comes to the divisive nature of this issue for the Democratic Party, no one can really comprehend where it’s going at this time.  I, like many Canadians, hope that the Party can resolve the issue prior to the Convention.  Personally, the situation makes it very difficult to support President Biden’s bid for a second term in office.  The world is watching, including our adversaries.

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Jun 24

What Millennials And Generation Z Have In Common

by bcurry

Over the last decade, a lot has been written about today’s younger generation, most notably the so-called millennials and Gen Zers.  As you are aware, millennials are between 28 and 43, and Gen Z generally refers to those ages 12 to 27.  Some observers believe that millennials had it bad financially, but Gen Z may have it even worse.  Millennials did go through two recessions, including the Great Recession of 2008.  Many struggled to get jobs, particularly following the Great Recession, when the nation’s unemployment rate hovered around 10 percent for over a year. Their wages took a massive hit, too.  On average, millennials lost about 13 percent of their earnings between 2007 and 2017.  Gen Z has gone through the recent pandemic, and came out seeing a totally different labour market, especially for recent college graduates.  Both the millennials and Gen Zers have faced tough labour market conditions, making it harder to get good paying jobs, especially among blue-collar workers.  Now, they are facing ever increasing debt loads and tough housing costs, making it difficult to purchase that important first home.  Indeed, Gen Z is the first generation where recent college grads are more likely to be unemployed than the general population.  In addition, both groups left college with significant student loan debts.

Why is this scenario important?   First of all, millennials were the largest generation group in the U.S.
in 2023, with an estimated population of 72.7 million.  Millennials recently surpassed Baby Boomers as the biggest group, and they will continue to be a major part of the population for many years.  Add in Gen Zers, who made up 61.3 million of the American population, these two groups now represent a major, if not the biggest voting block in the U.S. They will play a key role in the upcoming American elections next November, something both the Democrats and Republicans are well aware of.

Can President Biden appeal to the youth vote?  Biden and the Democrats have relied heavily on their vote in the past.  However, with the current inflationary economy and difficult employment situation, I wouldn’t count on it.  Since they may not necessarily favour former President Trump, they may instead simply decide not to vote.  Such an outcome would have a major impact on both political parties.  Among women in both groups, there may be more hope for the Democrats in light of the Republican stance on abortion, particularly in Republican led states.  This has yet to be seen.

Although Trump’s popularity among young adults, aged 18 to 34, plummeted as he tried to overturn the 2020 election, Gallup’s 2023 surveys of U.S. adults indicated that his popularity has rebounded since.  Forty-two percent of young adults saw him favourably in October 2020, but that dropped to 28 percent in January 2021.  His favorability bounced back to 42 percent by December 2023, especially among young Hispanics and Blacks.  Younger voters, under the age of 30, feel worse about the economy than older cohorts.  Not surprisingly, in the latest New York Times/Sienna poll, for example, Black voters feel as bad about the economy as their white counterparts and Latino voters feel even worse.  Will his recent conviction have an impact?

What is also interesting is the fact that following the January 6, 2021 assault on the Hill, Trump’s popularity took a significant dip among younger voters.  However, the improvement in Trump’s favorability now can be partly attributed to the fading memories of January 6 and the tumultuous year that was 2020.  As in the case of the last election, social media will once again play a significant role in influencing the views of younger voters more than any other age group.  The question becomes whether younger voters will believe everything posted on social media or will also look to main stream media sources for their information?

There is little doubt that bread and butter issues will dominate the electoral scene this year more than any other issue.  How millennials and Gen Zers view the economic platforms of both political parties will more than likely determine the final outcome of the election.  With so much in common, both parties will have to take major steps to win over their votes.

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