FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Political Polarizations Has Increased Mistrust in Many of Our Public Institutions

The New York Times in a very recent article (August 7th) notes that Republican (G.O.P.) contenders in the presidential primaries are bent on feeding voter distrust in public institutions such as the courts, schools and the military.  Obviously, most appear to be following the lead of Donald Trump who, for example whenever he has the chance, publicly attacks the U.S. Justice Department and the F.B.I.  During the pandemic Trump even disparaged the Surgeon General, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Resources.  Now, facing a barrage of indictments by the Justice Department, Trump has further accelerated his personal attacks on these major institutions.  Unfortunately, several other G.O.P. candidates have followed suit in an apparent attempt to appease Trump’s core followers.

All of the rhetoric, including that disseminated by social media and right-wing media, has created an environment where recent polls show that Americans’ trust in their institutions has apparently fallen to historical lows.  Feeding on voters’ already deeply embedded scepticism might have once been seen as politically risky, but social media and the right-wing media have helped change that.  The Republican governor of Florida and a candidate, Ron DeSantis, has led the charge against what he sees as a biased and liberal-influenced education system in his state.  Not to be outdone, another G.O.P. candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has gone on record that he would shut down the F.B.I. and the I.R.S. as part of his fight against the so-called “deep state”.

My primary question is what would replace all these important institutions in a democracy that claims to need independent bodies to deal with issues like law and order, public health, the environment, new technologies and the role of the military?  In a modern society, freedoms are important, but there still has to be some oversight of those matters as they relate to the public good.  Campaign rhetoric perpetuating conspiratorial themes does not help to ensure a rational and knowledge-based debate on many of the challenges that, as a democracy, we face daily.  It’s easy to argue that things should be eliminated, but no one Republican has yet rationally put forward any ideas about how one would go about replacing these institutions — and with what.

The Republican Party, just as the Conservative Party in Canada, has long stood for “smaller government in size and role” going back to the days of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.   However, the current G.O.P. extreme rhetoric goes far beyond the past political stances of Republican presidents, from Richard Nixon to the Bushes.  As the Times article notes: “The proliferation of attacks has alarmed both Republicans and Democrats who worry about the long-term impact on American democracy.  Public confidence in core institutions — from the justice system to voting systems — is fundamental to a durable democracy, particularly at a time of sharp political division.”

Just as I am certain that there are a good number of moderate Republicans in the U.S. and conservatives in Canada who oppose such extreme rhetoric, I am hoping that cooler heads will prevail among our electorates in both countries.  Our democracies are closely watched by countries around the world, and defending our democratic institutions has never been more important in the face of the growth of autocratic regimes globally.  These institutions are essential to defending our democratic values and promoting the public good.  We need to strengthen them rather than knock them down as the result of excessive political polarization.  It’s one thing to push for smaller government influence in our lives, it’s another to suggest that one can simply eliminate or emasculate its influence in highly complex modern societies.  Doing so would just replace democracies with autocracies by centralizing political and economic powers under one regime.  We now have checks and balances, including the courts and justice system, to prevent this from happening.  Unfortunately, the Republicans appear more than willing to minimize such oversight.  Ultimately, the current split in their party, led by Donald Trump’s extremism, could greatly weaken their platform in the eyes of the American electorate, and particularly those of independents.

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The Rise of Conspiracy Theories in the U.S. and Canada

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a “conspiracy” as a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful.  “Conspiracy theory” is defined as a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for an unexplained event.  Of course, in 2017, influencial QAnon surfaced with its origin in the American far-right political sphere.  QAnon centers on fabricated claims made by an anonymous individual or individuals known as “Q”.  According to Wikipedia, the core QAnon conspiracy theory is that a cabal of Satanic, cannibalistic child molesters were operating a global child sex trafficking ring, led by the Democratic Party and in particular former President Barack Obamak Hillary Clinton, and George Soros.  They were alleged to have conspired against former U.S. President Donald Trump prior to and during his term in office.  According to Media Matters for America, as of August 20, 2020, Trump had amplified QAnon messaging at least 216 times by retweeting or mentioning 129 QAnon-affiliated Twitter accounts, sometimes multiple times a day.  An article in The Atlantic in February 15, 2022 wrote that QAnon followers came to refer to Trump as “Q+”.  QAnon followers also had emerged in Canada, often accusing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and members of his Liberal government as part of the same global movement.

Most recently, an ecoterrorist conspiracy theory emerged that accused environmentalists of setting recent wildfires in Canada in order to make a point about the impact of climate change in North America.  While totally ridiculous and contradictory in nature, this conspiracy theory emerged in social media and notably among certain ultra-right groups.  Maxime Bernier, a former Conservative federal foreign minister-turned fringe party leader of the People’s Party of Canada, said in a June 5 tweet: “I bet a good portion of the wildfires raging across the country were started by green terrorists who want to give their climate change campaign a little boost.” This conspiracy theory is nothing new as, for example, in California in 2021 some people claimed online that arsonists were behind several wildfires — but there was no evidence that environmentalists were pushing a climate change agenda.  Moreover, officials of provincial agencies investigating the causes of wildfires in Quebec, Nova Scotia and Alberta have more or less determined such theories are bogus.  They note that there are several which are caused by humans, but these are almost always accidents and that recent lightning strikes were to blame for many of the wildfires.  Unless lightning is involved, a blaze classified as human-caused normally can be accidental, intentional or undetermined.  This does not exclusively mean arson.

Most recently, former President Trump is facing numerous federal charges that include willfully retaining national defense secrets in violation of the Espionage Act, making false statements and a conspiracy to obstruct justice.  Trump has repeatedly characterized the investigation as being politically motivated, and in recent weeks his lawyers have sought to raise what they say are issues of prosecutorial misconduct.  His defence is implying that there is a conspiracy within the Justice Department and the F.B.I., spearheaded by the White House and the Democrats, to go after him in order to prevent him from running for president in 2024.  Trump continues to refer to the investigation by federal officials as a “witch hunt”, for which there is currently no evidence to support his claims.  Although the evidence against Trump appears to be overwhelming, a majority of his supporters state their belief that there is a conspiracy against the former president aimed at preventing him from running in the next presidential election.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump is the main culprit purposely promulgating conspiracy theories and continues to have the support of a large base of rank and file members of the Republican Party.  Even some notable members of the Party, including Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Republican Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Matt Gaetz of Florida, have backed Trump’s conspiracy theory regarding what is often referred to as “the weaponization of federal law enforcement.”  When it comes to governance today, there appears to be no shortage of conspiracy theories, ludicrous or not.  What’s worst, a large percentage of Americans and Canadians appear to be accepting such theories as gospel.

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America Wanted to be Great Again.  Now It’s Just Sick!

I know what I’m about to write is controversial.  However, it is true and the facts bear it out.  During and after the pandemic, the U.S. like a lot of countries went through very difficult times.  Over a million Americans died due to COVID and many more were ill and now face what has become known as long COVID.  The rate for COVID-related deaths was the highest on a per-capita basis among industrialized countries.  Although a vaccine existed, a large number of Americans refused to get immunized and even prevented their children from being protected against this horrific disease.  Now, corporate giants are buying up primary care practices at a rapid pace in order to institute what is now referred to as corporate medicine.  In order to take advantage of the growing privatization of Medicare and an aging population, deals are being made which will risk shifting the balance in health care from quality treatment to profits.  Today, nearly seven in ten of all American doctors are either employed by a hospital or a corporation, with primary care doctors increasing simply becoming employees.  It’s all tied to billing.  As for Medicaid coverage, as pandemic protection expires, states are again determining which people are eligible for the health insurance program.  Millions could potentially lose access to their current coverage. 

Then there is the issue of abortion.  More and more states have placed either greater restrictions on legal abortions or have effectively banned abortions within their states.  Anti-abortion factions have even initiated lawsuits aimed at questioning the safety of medication abortion, the method used in more than half of abortions in the U.S.  They are trying to block legal access to mifepristone, a drug approved years ago by the Food and Drug Administration (F.D.A.) as being safe.  The Justice Department strongly disputed the claims in these lawsuits The F.D.A.’s rigorous reviews of mifepristone over the years repeatedly reaffirmed its decision to approve mifepristone, which blocks a hormone that allows a pregnancy to develop.  In addition, where states have placed strict prohibitions on abortions, doctors are complaining that the health of pregnant women can be seriously endangered due to their inability to perform an abortion for medical reasons, resulting in needless suffering.

Then there is the record number of mass shootings so far this year in the U.S.  To date, there have been 22 mass killings in 2023, defined as four or more people killed, not including the perpetrator.  According to the Gun Violence Archive, a non-profit publicly sourced database, there have also been at least 202 mass shootings in the U.S. so far this year, leaving 792 victims injured and 276 dead.  The archive defines a mass shooting as at least four victims struck by gunfire.  Military-styled assault weapons, used in most of these shooting are everywhere, and apparently easily purchased by anyone without stringent background checks.  As usual, Republicans and gun owners offer their condolences and prayers, often alluding to some form of mental illness as the primary cause.  While mental illness is a concern, studies have shown that the majority of the shooters acted because of other motivations, including hate and anger directed at particular groups and individuals.  There appears to be no end to these tragedies in sight.

Then there are the growing actions by certain states over transgender youth.  Over the past three years, Republican state lawmakers have put forward a barrage of bills to regulate the lives of transgender youths, restricting the sports teams they can play on, bathrooms they can use and medical care they can receive.  The people pushing these laws include Christian conservatives — among them some of the same figures who fought the legalization of gay marriage.  Medical groups have overwhelmingly rejected arguments by conservative activists emphasizing parental control and child protection and calling transition care harmful.  They note that transgender people have higher rates of depression and suicide.  Research shows that transition care — which can involve puberty blockers, hormones or surgery, though minors rarely receive surgery — can improve mental health.

Over all, the list goes on and on and on.  I have not even touched on issues related to climate change which several state governments continue to ignore and disavow.  I used to look up to the U.S., but no more.  Its policies now represent the elements of one very sick society.

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Trump Could Run For President.  This Could Not Happen in Canada.

Legal exerts in the U.S. believe that former President Trump could run for president from prison.  Two previous candidates, Eugene V. Debs in 1920, and Lyndon LaRouche in 1992, both unsuccessfully ran from prison.  Experts note that there’s nothing in the Constitution preventing him from doing so.  Much will be determined by the outcome of a trial over Donald Trump’s indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office which investigated Trump’s personal and business finances, including a payment by Michael Cohen, Trump’s formal personal lawyer.  The payment was made to adult-film star Stormy Daniels days before the 2016 election.  One major drawback is, if convicted, Trump would be subject to the same rules as other prisoners, which could definitely restrict his communications and ability to appear at events.  Furthermore, he would need to rely on proxies to campaign for him.  This of course removes Trump from the hustings which has proven to be his greatest strength on the campaign trail, especially among his followers.

Whether or not Trump is found guilty, the situation leaves the Republicans in a major bind, especially during their primaries to select their next candidate to run for president.  Trump’s core is still evidently strong and could mount a serious protest against the choice of any other Republican candidate.  In light of this, there is also nothing to stop Trump from declaring himself an independent candidate for president.  This in turn would most likely split the conservative support in the next election, much to the benefit of the Democrats and the incumbent president.

What’s interesting is such a situation could not occur in Canada as the Prime Minister (PM) is the leader of the party which gets the most seats in Parliament.  Unlike the American president, one does not vote directly for the PM, but votes for candidates of a political party within their electoral riding.  The party leader is selected through a party’s leadership convention, although in the case of an incumbent PM, his leadership is usually automatic unless contested within the party.  A PM typically sits as a member of Parliament (MP).  Once a party achieves the majority of seats in the House of Commons, the leader can then form the government and he or she is designated by the Governor General to fulfill the role of PM.  Thus, he or she could never run for leader of a party and in turn PM from prison.

Since the indictment of former President Trump is the first of its kind in American history, there are a few unknowns as to how everything will unfold.  One must also remember that Trump is still under investigation for other things, including other ongoing investigations related to his role in the Capitol riot, an alleged scheme to overturn election results in Georgia, and his handling of government records.  What’s interesting is that the indictment and these investigations have not really damaged Trump’s popularity among conservatives.  A very recent poll taken post-indictment indicates that Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary surged to a 26-point.  In the poll, 57% of those asked said they would vote for Trump, while 31% indicated that they would back DeSantis.  This whole scenario represents a very real problem for the Republican Party, despite their outcries over Trump’s indictment.

Only in America you say!  America’s democratic institutions have been under attack for some time now from the far-right.  This entire predicament simply adds to the turmoil.  It is obvious that the authorities have to handle the whole episode with diplomacy and silk gloves.  In the end, whatever the eventual outcome of this indictment and ongoing investigations, the whole affair could become a political circus.  Certainly, no one, including a former president, is above the law.  Donald Trump is no exception.  The best thing that could happen is for Trump to withdraw his candidacy to be the Republican presidential candidate.  However, I strongly believe, knowing Trump, that this will never happen!

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Differences in Governance Systems in Canada and the U.S. Do Matter

Back in high school and in university we were introduced to the two systems of governance in Canada, Great Britain and the U.S.  Canada like the U.K is a parliamentary system, with the normal three levels of governance: the legislature, executive and judiciary components.  As a republic, the U.S. has a similar constitutional makeup, although how each of the members is selected varies greatly.  In Canada, the Prime Minister is selected by which party gets the most seats in the House of Commons.  The PM also sits in Parliament.  Sometimes, if a party doesn’t win the majority of seats to form a government, the party with the most seats can negotiate with another party to form what is referred to as a “minority government”.  Minority governments are tricky because they can be toppled by a “confidence vote” on critical motions such as a budget.  Canada currently has a minority government as a result of the last federal election in September 2021. The PM currently selects the members to Cabinet who are normally members of Parliament, unlike in the U.S. where the President selects Cabinet members who do not sit in Congress.

In the U.S., citizens vote separately for the President and for candidates to the House of Representatives and the Senate, often in what are referred to as “mid-term elections”.  Unlike in Canada where there are mainly five official parties, the U.S. only has two parties: the Democrats and the Republicans.  As a result, Congress can often see a split in control between the House of Representatives and the Senate, as is the case now with the Republicans controlling the House and the Democrats the Senate.  In addition, there are those members who are independents.  The Canadian Senate on the other hand is made up of appointed members (by the Governor General on the PM’s recommendation) who now do not have any party affiliation.  Compared to the American Senate, the Canadian Senate does not have much power, especially when it comes to financial matters such as the budget.  It examines bills referred from the House and can recommend amendments which the governing party can accept or ignore in the final reading before parliament.  While committee hearings before the U.S. Senate can make or break policies or federal appointments, the Canadian Senate’s committees can simply provide reports on selected subjects which the Government most often ignores and get shelved.

Appointments to the Supreme Court are a whole other matter.  In the U.S., such appointments are highly politicized and depend on which party the President and Senate members come from.  In recent years, the majority of Supreme Court justices have been appointed under Republican regimes, resulting in a prevalent conservative court.  In Canada, on the other hand, Supreme Court appointments are more or less apolitical and made to reflect regional, ethnic and affirmative action considerations.  Frankly, given recent decisions by the American Supreme Court (e.g. Roe vs. Wade), I must say that I prefer the more independent Canadian version when it comes to appointing jurists.

There will always be debates over which system is better.  The fact of the matter is that both have their benefits and flaws.  One major concern with the American system is how the President is elected and the role of the “electoral college”.  For example, in the case of Donald Trump, he had smaller percentage of the popular vote than Hillary Clinton and yet won the election.  In both countries, it is especially important to win certain urban and rural areas in order to be politically successful.  For this reason, parties target certain key states in the U.S. and certain key provinces in Canada.  One major difference is how candidates in the election process are funded.  In the U.S. there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as Super PACs (political action committees).  For example, this year’s midterm election was expected to set a new spending record, with over $9 billion being raised. This is significantly higher than the previous record of $7 billion, which was set in 2018.  In Canada, contributions to candidates are far less and are regulated by controls enforced by an independent agency, namely Elections Canada.

To change the current governance systems in both countries would require significant constitutional amendments which don’t appear to be on the horizon anytime soon.  I would suggest, maybe just maybe, the time is right for governments to re-examine the governance processes in light of our histories and the continuing changes in both societies.

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Where Is America’s Democracy Heading?

Now that the mid-term elections are more or less over, there are a lot of questions about where America’s democratic processes are heading?  This is particularly true given the following issues that surfaced during the voting processes.

  • Several states instituted new restrictions on how people could vote, some moving to in-person voting as a requirement.  This particularly had a negative impact on seniors and persons with mobility disabilities.  In some cases, it also affected marginalized groups.  For example, Florida had new elections legislation affecting voting in the State, which voter advocates argued disproportionately affected Black voters — making it harder for many to vote — and created an environment of confusion and fear.
  • Various voting station monitoring processes were introduced, some of which definitely intimidated certain voters.  In a couple of instances, authorities had to remove armed monitors — reminiscent of Russian elections — from polling stations.
  • Several states had candidates, all Republican, whose platforms included the open but false belief that the 2020 Presidential election was not legitimate.  Some of these candidates were running for positions of Senator, Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State.  If elected, all could have a serious impact on how future elections are run.
  • Right-wing roadshows, such as the ReAwaken America Tour, promoted Christian nationalism before the mid-terms.  According to Samuel Perry, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Oklahoma and the co-author of the book ‘The Flag and the Cross: White Christian Nationalism and the Threat to American Democracy’, a growing number of Republicans are embracing the ideology of Christian nationalism.  Such groups advocate the fusion of American civic life with a particular kind of white, conservative Christianity, a contrary notion to the separation of church and state.
  • As Republican candidates across the country continue to amplify former President Donald Trump’s false claims of corrupted elections, officials were ready for disruptions after the polls closed.  Already declared, activists and lawyers are prepared to challenge ballots and dispute counting procedures, and losing candidates who cast doubt on the integrity of the process may file lawsuits.
  • Not long ago, the fight against disinformation focused on the major social media platforms, like Facebook and Twitter. When pressed, they often removed troubling content, including misinformation and intentional disinformation about issues. Today, however, there are dozens of new platforms, including some that pride themselves on not moderating — censoring, as they put it — untrue statements in the name of free speech.

These are only a few of the anomalies that were witnessed during yesterday’s mid-term elections.  The continuing polarization of American politics was clearly on display.  There appears to be no real chance for compromise in Congress which will leave President Joe Biden with few legislative options during the remainder of his term in office.  It can only be expected that the same election issues will surface in the next presidential election, if not more so.

Even the U.S. Supreme Court has increasingly demonstrated in recent decisions that political ideology plays an important role, especially when judges are appointed by Republican or Democratic administrations.  Clearly, there now has surfaced a serious negative impact on the courts as neutral bodies governed by the laws of the land and the will of the peoples’ elected representatives.  So much for checks and balances related to the three branches of governance!

Other democracies are closely watching what is happening in the America and some are very concerned about the situation.  Studies have even shown that young people in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. are increasingly cynical about the ability of democracies to effectively govern, leading today’s youth away from representative government.  Some young people appear ready to abandon democracy, expressing concerns for their futures and the belief that the current system has failed them.  In the past, foreigners have looked to American democracy as a model to replicate in their countries.  Sadly, this may no longer be the case.

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Threats Against Politicians in Canada Becoming More Frequent and Inevitable

Verbal and physical threats against American politicians have been a constant factor in U.S. politics, with the most severe being the assassinations or attempts to assassinate politicians since that of John F. Kennedy.  In Canada, threats against political figures have grown in the last decade in particular.  During the 2019 federal electoral campaign, even Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced by his security detail in an “unprecedented” step to wear a bulletproof vest at a number of rallies.  It was also unprecedented to have a heavily armed uniformed Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) tactical team in plain sight around Trudeau, since normally they are in the background and out of site.  Just recently, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was verbally accosted by a man in a hotel lobby in Grande Prairie, Alberta.  The incident, although Ms. Freeland was not physically hurt, is now under investigation by the RCMP for potential criminal charges.  At the moment, there is an election in the province of Quebec where emotions run high over the provincial government’s handling of the pandemic.  Security around Quebec’s provincial party leaders appears to be high in the early days of the election campaign.  The potential of threats has forced Party Quebecois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to wear a bulletproof vest to keep him safe.  His party certainly recalls the deadly election-night shooting that marred the victory party of former PQ premier Pauline Marois in September 2012.  Quebec provincial police spokesman Nicolas Scholtus did not confirm whether security around the campaigning leaders was higher than in previous years, but he acknowledged that there was a rise in reports of harassment or threats directed at Quebec politicians during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Numerous Canadian politicians of all stripes condemned recent incidents of hateful threats against the PM and ministers in his cabinet, especially where female ministers and members of Parliament are targeted.  The general theme of condemnation is that such behaviour has no place in Canada.  They sincerely believe that people all run for office to promote dialogue on important public policy issues, and harassment like this cannot be tolerated.  However, simply issuing statements of condemnation most likely will not have an impact on the current political environment.  The RCMP and other enforcement agencies will have to continue to collect intelligence and conduct threat assessments for all events that political leaders attend. 

Michael Kempa, an associate professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa, pointed out that politicians everywhere have been facing increased threats due to what he calls “the new reality of polarization and violence that’s directed against public facing political leaders and other activists in our community.”  Professor Kempa attributes this in part to the spread of U.S. political culture, where threat levels have been high for years, and also to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Canadians can no longer rely on a tradition of promoting civility in political dialogue.  In an age of social media and digital conspirators, it has become difficult to lower the temperature of the political climate.  There are just too many disgruntled and angry individuals out there who are convinced that threats and violence are the only way in which to confront governments and politicians.  Unfortunately, the continuing outrage by Donald Trump followers after the F.B.I.’s seizure of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida residence, has only contributed to further threats against government agencies, including the U.S. Justice Department and even the National Archives.  It doesn’t help that one of Mr. Trump’s closest allies, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, issued a similar warning that Mr. Trump quickly reposted on his social media platform.  Mr. Graham, in a Fox News appearance on August 28th, predicted that if the search of Mar-a-Lago led to a prosecution of the former president, there would be “riots in the streets”.

Canada has its own radical factions, as demonstrated by the occupation of its capital, Ottawa, by members of the truckers’ convoy for three weeks in January of this year.  There is little doubt that federal and provincial politicians will be a target for disgruntled individuals and groups.  One can only hope that there will be no resulting physical assaults on politicians and leaders.  I’m afraid that given the current polarization within Canadian society that such eventuality cannot be prevented, despite heightened security measures for political figures.

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Once Donald Trump’s Actions Were Considered Farcical, Now They’re Considered Dangerous

During the former president’s term in office, Donald Trump often became the butt of many a comedian jokes, most notably on NBC’s Saturday Night Live.  Yes, previous presidents have been made fun of from time to time.  However, once Trump lost the election and his declaration that the election was stolen led to the January 6th assault on the Capitol, he has now become even more dangerous.  No longer as the president, recent events have shown how his actions and statements have created a precarious situation.  The search this past week by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of his private residence at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida., was one more incident of now citizen Trump believing he is above the law.  The legal search appeared to be part of a long-running investigation of whether documents — some of them top-secret — were taken there instead of being sent to the National Archives when Trump left office.  There could be several violations falling under federal statutes, including the Espionage Act and Presidential Records Act.  Apparently, about twelve boxes containing classified documents were seized by the FBI.

Immediately after news broke of the FBI search at Trump’s Florida residence, posts began appearing on Truth Social, the Twitter-like social media platform backed by former Trump’s media and technology company.  Truth Social users called for civil war and advocated for violence against the FBI, some of the posts remaining online days after they were originally posted, according to NBC News.  Unfortunately, a number of Republicans and media sources such as Fox News and Breibart News attacked the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), specifically Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray and the FBI agents as part of the Democrat’s plot to tarnish the reputation of Donald Trump and to prevent him from running again in 2024.  According to the warrant and receipt of what authorities seized, Trump is being investigated for possibly breaking three federal laws: removal or destruction of records, obstructing an investigation and violating the Espionage Act.  Serious stuff!

The result of Trump’s accusing the DOJ and FBI of contributing to a witch hunt and that he had done nothing wrong, talk of violence by his supporters continues to mount.  Threats have been made against the federal judge who authorized the warrant to search for classified material and FBI agents whose names were on the warrant and receipt.  Then on August 11th, a 42-year-old Ohio man, identified as Ricky W. Shiffer, showed up at the Cincinnati field office of the FBI with an AR-15-style rifle.  Subsequently, he was shot to death after firing multiple times at the police during a standoff.  Mr. Shiffer’s social media posts later revealed that he was full of rage about, among other things, the search at Mar-a-Lago.

As Alan Feuer of the New York Times notes, as right-wing rhetoric escalates, so do threats and violence.  In his August 13th article, he refers to a study by Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence.  Professor Pape conducted half a dozen nationwide polls since the Jan. 6th attack and has repeatedly found the same alarming results: that between 15 million and 20 million American adults believe that violence would be justified to return Mr. Trump to office.  Instead of defusing the situation, Donald Trump, along with his supporters, continue to promote conspiracy theories.  He believes that a number of current investigations are simply examples of his ‘persecution’ by Democratic administrations in Washington and New York State.  Once again, the whole affair is a hoax.  He and members of his family have even suggested, ridiculously, that the classified documents were likely planted by the FBI during the search.  Even former Vice-President Mike Pence was quoted as sharing the “deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search of the personal residence of President Trump.”  Pence declared that after years where FBI agents were found to be acting on political motivation during his administration, the appearance of continued partisanship by the DOJ had to be addressed.  Remember how Trump fired then FBI Director James Comey in 2017 because he refused to pledge his loyalty to the President, no matter what!

Unless the hostile rhetoric and threats are quickly dealt with, there is little doubt that more violent incidents could occur, particularly against the targeted individuals noted above.  Obviously, the investigation by the DOJ and FBI is no joke.  This is the first time since Nixon and ‘Watergate’ that a former President is under investigation for violating several federal statutes.  My understanding is that no one is above the law.  However, under the current climate, the political ramifications of pursuing Donald Trump could determine whether further violence occurs and what will be the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election.

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Republicans Facing Several Major Serious Issues Within Party Before Mid-Terms

Well, I just learned from a Washington Post report that former President Trump’s actions are now being investigated by Justice Department prosecutors as part of an inquiry into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.  Recent testimony before the January 6th House committee also appears to suggest that there is enough evidence to conclude that the former president and some of his allies might have conspired to commit fraud and obstruction by misleading Americans about the outcome of the 2020 election and attempting to overturn the result.  The Republican Party establishment must be greatly disturbed by what is coming out of the committee’s public hearings, although many Republicans in Congress are still boohooing the hearings as a Democrat plot to malign Trump’s reputation.

However, Trump is not helping his case by his recent speeches where he continues to claim that the election was stolen.  What’s worst is the fact that a recent poll of Republican voters taken by the New York Times/Siena College showed that 49 percent said they would back Trump if he ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.  This compared with just 6 percent who said they would vote for former Vice-President Mike Pence and 25 percent who supported Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.  The Trump vs. Pence public squabbles has caused many Republicans’ to have frustrations and reservations about a possible 2024 Trump campaign, suggesting that it could cause large numbers of Republican voters to defect from the party in a general election.  Donald Trump and his rowdy supporters won’t just go away!

In addition, it has been reported that online fundraising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.  Exacerbating the fundraising problems for Republicans is that Trump continues to be the party’s dominant fundraiser.  Indeed, pro-Trump super PACs had amassed more than $100 million by last summer.  Yet virtually none of the tens of millions of dollars he raised has gone toward defeating Democrats.  The money has instead funded his political team and retribution agenda against Republicans who have crossed him.  Of course, money alone does not win political races, but any lack of funds can hamper party campaigns.

Then there has been the recent decision by the primarily conservative Supreme Court in overturning Roe v. Wade that has set off an array of attacks by women’s groups over the withdrawal of abortion services and the banning of abortion practices in Republican governed states.  Take this issue into consideration and the potential attack by Republicans on LGBTQ+ issues, including same sex marriages, there is a growing movement against what are being depicted as extremist right-wing policies.  The Democrats may be able to use the far right Republican platforms in their mid-term campaign to galvanize their rank and file and to secure the support of frustrated interest groups.  Much will depend on how Congressional Republicans handle certain initiatives in the coming months, including that which would protect the legitimacy of same sex marriages.

At the state level, there is little doubt that in those governed by Republicans there are still enough conservative votes to win the day and maintain their power.  However, at the federal level, the Republicans definitely appear to be in trouble, especially if Donald Trump is capable of riling up his base.  It will be interesting to see if the Republicans can resolve their evident split within the party before the mid-terms and most certainly in time for the next presidential election.  To the distress of the Republican establishment, Donald Trump and his allies are continuing to schedule events and are raising money for initiatives intended to make the former president a central player in the midterm elections, and possibly to set the stage for another run for the White House. 

One would love to be a fly on the wall at behind-the-scene discussions among leading Republican strategists.  I’m certain that they have a lot of serious issues to talk about!

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Incredible Scenes of Democratic Representatives in Congress Being Arrested During Protests

Earlier this past week during an abortion rights protest over the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, at least 17 Democratic lawmakers were among the 35 people arrested by the Capitol Police for blocking traffic outside the courthouse.  The arrest of lawmakers in this manner is something almost unheard of in Canada.  Canadian legislators tend to be somewhat docile when outside the House of Commons in Ottawa.  The most that Members of Parliament (MP) will do is to attend peaceful protests on the front lawn of Parliament’s centre block, sometimes to speak in support of some cause or another.  I can’t remember the last time that an MP was arrested as part of any protest in Ottawa.  However, back in March 2018, two federal politicians, including Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and New Democratic Party (NDP) MP Kennedy Stewart, were arrested at a protest against Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain federally approved pipeline expansion in Burnaby, British Columbia.

On the other hand, in Washington, such incidences among House Representatives appear to have happened in other cases.  Indeed, it was reported that Rep. Judy Chu, D-Calif., was arrested last month outside the Supreme Court for protesting.  In July 2021, Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, was arrested at the Hart Senate Office Building for protesting in favor of voting rights legislation.

Protests are protected by the First Amendment of the American Constitution, but like in Canada, there is still the need for protesters to abide by laws.  In the most recent incident, the U.S. Capitol Police tweeted about the situation: “Demonstrators are starting to block First Street, NE. It is against the law to block traffic, so officers are going to give our standard three warnings before they start making arrests.”  In light of the minor violation, those arrested were later released at the scene, with police telling the ABC News they were likely to face a $US50 ($72.48 Canadian) fine.  Among those arrested was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, who became the youngest woman elected to the House of Representatives, and has rocketed to political notoriety.  The arrests of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and the other Democrats resulted in coverage by a large number of news media outlets and extensively by social media sources.  There is little doubt that this type of media coverage involving lawmakers gives a protest a good deal of press, good and bad.

Former charismatic Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who was PM from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984, once exclaimed to the house speaker that opposition MPs were nobodies once they were “50 yards from Parliament Hill”.  Of course, that was before social media and daily digital news.  Most recently, several opposition Conservative MPs, including leadership contender Pierre Poilievre, met with the illegal Trucker Convoy which had occupied the streets in front of Parliament for over three weeks in February of this year.  The New York Times wrote that the Conservatives, the only other party to form a government in Canada, were readying for a fight and saw the truckers and their followers not as outcasts but as political currency that can bring in votes — and money.  With his photo-op, Poilievre was depicted as the protesters’ political champion at the time, although as the illegal occupation continued Conservative support was condemned by many Canadians, and most certainly by those living in Ottawa at the time.  No other party MPs met with the protesters, viewing the occupation as being unlawful, eventually being removed by the police and leading to the arrests of dozens of protesters.  The social and economic impact of the occupation ultimately led to the federal government’s invocation of the Emergencies Act to facilitate the removal of occupying vehicles from streets within the Parliamentary precinct in Ottawa.

In general, Canadian legislators tend to avoid participation in protests, many of which occur in the capital on a daily basis.  Even members of the left-wing NDP are normally careful not to participate in protests outside of the legislature, particularly those involving extremists.  The one big difference in Canada is the more apolitical system used for appointing federal justices, including those appointed to the Supreme Court.  With the highly politicized recent decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court — comprised of four conservative-leaning justices who were appointed during the Trump administration — it is not surprising that protests have erupted outside the Supreme Court.  What’s surprising is the participation by members of Congress in such protests and their subsequent arrests by Capitol Police!  This is something that is unheard of in Canada — perhaps somewhat regrettably in certain cases.  However, time will tell for our “nobodies”.

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