FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

May 3

There is a Catch-22 in Pipeline Issues Between Canada and the U.S.

by bcurry

Following Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president, he took the widely expected step through an executive order of cancelling the cross-border permit for the US$14.4-billion Alberta-to-Texas heavy oil pipeline, the Keystone XL pipeline. The decision marks the third time a U.S. president has blocked the construction of this pipeline.  Next occurred the decision by Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer last November which ordered Calgary-based Enbridge to shut down its nearly 70-year-old Line 5 pipeline by May 12, 2021.  Line 5 carries each day up to 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids across Michigan and under the Great Lakes.  Line 5 is part of Enbridge’s mainland system carrying fuel from Alberta’s oil sands to the Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Canada, especially to refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.  Not surprisingly, President Biden’s and Governor Whitmer’s decisions were applauded by environmentalists and Indigenous groups on both sides of the border.

The difficulty is that Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, and the U.S. is its top customer.  While past incidents have occurred where crude oil leakages in pipelines, including those which are part of Enbridge’s mainland system, the alternative means of transportation via rail and trucking also represents serious safety issues.  This potential danger was clearly demonstrated in the fiery derailment in July 2013 in Lac-Megantic, Quebec, which killed 47 people and wiped out part of the town.  From an economic point of view, the transport of crude oil and natural gas liquids by pipeline is the most efficient and least costly option.  Realistically, any transition within the U.S. or Canada away from fossil fuels will take time.  While the elimination of fossil fuels makes good environmental sense in light of climate change, there continues to be a dependence on fossil fuels for servicing our industries, running our transportation hubs, producing electricity and heating our homes.  Both countries have to cooperatively work together towards achieving environmental goals without creating bad relations between our governments and citizens.

Back in January, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney asked the Canadian government to push the U.S. government to reimburse the $1.5 billion it stands to lose from the cancellation of Keystone XL and to reimburse TC Energy, the project proponent, for the money it has sunk into the project.  Alberta took an ownership stake in 2020, representing more than $1 billion in taxpayer money to fund the construction of the pipeline.  The Biden administration’s decision to block the Keystone XL pipeline has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a very difficult situation, one which he has raised with the President.  On the one hand he has to support Alberta’s oil and gas industry.  On the other hand the Prime Minister has agreed reduce in Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  This brings Canada in line with the Biden administration recent pledge to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

Critics of the decision to shut down the Line 5 pipeline note that 6,500 good-paying jobs in Sarnia, Ontario, are on the line.  A further 23,500 indirect jobs in that same region could also be impacted, and thousands more across Ontario and Quebec.  Line 5 also feeds into Line 9, which carries oil to refineries in Montreal and Lévis for Quebec’s supply needs.  According to Minister of Natural Resources Seamus O’Regan, Line 5 delivers 66 percent of the crude oil consumed in Quebec.  This means that besides Alberta, the Premiers of Ontario and Quebec are extremely unhappy with the Michigan Governor’s position.  Any decision to move crude oil and natural gas liquids by alternate means is considered less safe, more costly and realistically not viable given the vast quantities that have to be transported.  This is your Catch-22.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. need to work much more closely to resolve all relevant issues pertinent to their respective constituents.  Our continuing good trade and political relationships are in the balance.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Economy Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Keystone XL Oil and Gas Transport of Oil US

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Apr 23

All of a Sudden, Climate Change is Back in the News

by bcurry

The Biden administration has just announced that it will unveil a more aggressive plan to cut U.S. green house gases (GHG) — probably around 50 percent by the end of the decade, compared with 2005 levels.  Other countries, including Canada, also announced their intentions to cut GHGs by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  In addition, despite diplomatic clashes, the U.S. and China vow to work together on climate change.  However, it is reported meanwhile that carbon dioxide levels spiked to a critical new record, halfway to doubling pre-industrial CO2 levels.  In addition, forecasts by Swiss Re estimate that the effects of climate change can be expected to shave 11 to 14 percent off global economic output by 2050 compared with growth levels without climate change, possibly by as much as $23 trillion.  Poorer countries are expected to suffer the most.  Swiss Re is one of the world’s largest providers of insurance to other insurance companies.  Needless-to-say, among insurance companies, the ultimate impact of climate change on their business is of growing concern.  During the past 40 years, the U.S. alone has experienced almost 300 weather and climate-related disasters that exceeded $1 billion in losses each.  Last year alone, there were 22 such billion-dollar disasters.

While it is great to see that the U.S. and Canada are upping their pledges to combat climate change through huge investments, one can only hope that it’s not too little or too late.  However, the very fact that climate change is back on the agenda in a serious way, despite their obvious recent concentration on the pandemic, is a good thing.  Numerous industry sectors, including the oil and gas industry, have come forward with plans to help curb GHGs.  Government support for green industries will help to promote credible proposals on hydrogen-based and carbon sequestration initiatives.  In recent months, there have been numerous accounts of the automotive sector’s initiatives to increase the number of electric vehicles in the coming years.  Finally, one is beginning to see a change in the thinking of business leaders, recognizing the inevitability of societal demands to tackle climate change in real terms.

Despite being an optimist, I cannot help but continue to be a little sceptical as to how quickly certain industry sectors will move to implement green technologies.  Like the pandemic, climate change requires a global approach to dealing with its impact.  We have seen how difficult it is to really develop international strategies to resolve the pandemic when it seems each and every country is focussing primarily on its own domestic situation.  Unlike the pandemic which hopefully will come under control in the coming year, climate change requires longer-term initiatives and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Climate Change

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Dec 4

Although Climate Change Has Taken a Back Seat to the Pandemic, Today It’s Still a Major Issue

by bcurry

The annual cost of catastrophic weather disasters is rising sharply.  Meanwhile, Canada and the U.S. aren’t doing enough to prepare for future disasters.  In the last year we’ve seen severe storms, hurricanes, wildfires and major droughts across North America.  There is little scientific doubt that this is the result of climate change.  According to a recent report by the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, the costs of weather-related disasters equalled 5 to 6 percent of Canada’s annual economic growth since 2010, compared with an average of about 1 percent prior to that year.  Based largely on data from the Insurance Bureau of Canada, there were $14.5 billion (US$11.2 billion) of direct disaster-related costs from 2010 through 2019.  This is very likely an underestimation, particularly when indirect costs are taken into account.

Unfortunately, the current coronavirus pandemic has to a large extent put the issues surrounding climate change on the back burner for the time being.  Most experts would agree that, even without the pandemic, the bad news is that climate-change adaptation in Canada is far behind where it needs to be.  In addition, Canada still relies heavily on the fossil fuel industry as a major driver of its resource-based economy.  A number of studies have shown that the Canadian banking industry still invests heavily in the fossil fuel industry.  One recent study by the Rainforest Action Network notes that in the 4 1/2 years since the Paris agreement on climate change, fossil-fuel lending has grown at five major Canadian banks.  These banks provided more than $131 billion (Canadian) to oil and gas companies in 2019 alone.  Even the Export Development Canada, an arm’s-length federal agency that helps Canadian industry sell its products abroad, averaged about $10 billion (Canadian) a year in support for fossil fuels exports.

CEOs at Canada’s major banks may well pay lip service to reducing the carbon intensity of their investments and their support for green technologies, but the reality is that they have continued to greatly finance the fossil fuel industry.  Some have even promised to be carbon neutral by 2050, aligning themselves with Paris agreement targets.  However, their financial support significantly assists in investments related to exploration, production, refining, and transportation of fossil fuels — all of which contribute to Canada’s and to global carbon emissions.  Some will argue that it is the sole role of banks to make money and it is their primary responsibility to support the Canadian economy.  But at what cost? 

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Jun 19

Worldwide Crises Appear To Want To Come In Bundles of Threes

by bcurry

There’s nothing like stating the obvious. 2020 has been a crazy year so far.  Humans are facing the greatest health and economic crises since the influenza outbreak of 1918-19 and the great depression of the early thirties.  In the meantime, the global issue of climate change is still on the table.  To complicate matters, recent shootings by police of black and indigenous people in the U.S., Canada and elsewhere has led to a resurgence of “black lives matter” and the need for examination of systemic racism by governments and corporations. Despite fears over the on-going coronavirus pandemic, protests against anti-black racism emerged around the world.

As with the recent growth in support of tackling climate change issues, there has obviously been a major change in support for dealing with systemic racism and in particular the use of force by police and the authorities against marginalized groups. The spread of COVID-19 has particularly negatively affected various marginalized groups in proportion to their statistical share of the general population.  The economic lockdown of many sectors has also disproportionately affected those same groups as indicated by unemployment and poverty stats.  Vulnerable seniors in long-term care have unfortunately been the most affected by the pandemic as evidenced by the fact that in many states and provinces they represent around ninety percent of the related deaths.  This is a clear negative outcome of the inadequate warehousing of and continuing poor health care for seniors that took place over the last fifty or sixty years.

Young people today are also bearing the brunt of dealing with climate change, the downturn in the economy, systemic racism and future employment changes. As a member of the boomer generation, I do not envy their multitude of challenges.  As a society, we must recognize that the younger generation will require all the support that can be provided, regardless of the costs.  Once we are through with the various impacts of the pandemic, if ever, societies will have to seek out a “new normal”.  This will take a concerted effort on the part of individuals, communities, organizations, governments, international bodies, and many others.  Changes are inevitable.

Unfortunately, uncertain times as these can be overwhelming for people. Often, there is a desire to return to the way it was in the past — a form of “unrealistic nostalgia”. There will no doubt be opposition to far-reaching societal change.  If there is one thing that these crises have done is to force us to recognize the urgent need for real changes.  Simply talking about the issues is not longer acceptable, especially for future leaders.  Recent collective reactions to all three crises, including the emergence of global movements, are clear evidence of the growing desire for action and real change.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Economy US

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Dec 2

Canada and U.S. Need to Consult More on How to Manage Artic Waters

by bcurry

Increasingly, the Artic waterways are open for a longer period to limited shipping, including commercial vessels, due to the impact of climate change in warming the oceans’ waters. For years, the former Soviet Union and now Russia have been building a greater capacity to travel through the Northwest Passage, even when the ice is still fairly thick. North of Russia shipping from Europe to Asia now takes place on an intermittent basis. Russia is far ahead of both Canada and the U.S. in creating ice-breaking capacity and particularly in the building of large nuclear-powered icebreakers. Currently the U.S. has two heavy icebreakers that are in their last days of service, and no new replacements are under construction at this time. Under a previous Conservative government, Canada proposed building a heavy polar icebreaker, but almost no progress has been made toward its actual construction.

Besides the potential natural resources that the Artic has, the Artic waters are of an important strategic value, militarily and politically, to both Canada and the U.S.  This year Canada released a comprehensive Arctic policy framework that places the emphasis for future development on civilian development. However, Canadian policy does not address Arctic shipping concerns.  This certainly is not a way to reinforce Canadian sovereignty off our Arctic coast.  Alaska’s two senators, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, recently proposed the creation of an Arctic Shipping Federal Advisory Committee to centralize discussions about shipping in Alaskan waters.

I would go one step further and suggest that a joint North American body needs to be created, just as we have one for common defense concerns in the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the International Joint Commission (IJC) to deal with mutual issues involving the Great Lakes waterways, commercial shipping and environmental concerns. Not only do we need to monitor Russian activities in Artic waters, but both countries can better coordinate investments in the creation of an ‘Artic seaway’ and the development of Artic ports.

At this time, neither Canada nor the United States has much to offer in the event of a maritime disaster in North American Arctic waters. Isn’t it about time that both countries get together to share resources and expertise to counter the growing Russian influence in Artic waters.  Instead of investing in military capabilities in outer space, it might be wiser to invest more resources right here on earth where more immediate and important needs must be addressed.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Military Prowess US

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Oct 5

Can We Believe Canadian Political Parties on Promises to Deal with Climate Change?

by bcurry

During the current federal election in Canada, four of the major parties are each suggesting that they have the answer when it comes to dealing with the issue of climate change. Years ago, Canada under a Conservative government signed onto the Paris Climate Accord. An assertion was made that Canada would reach certain reductions in carbon emissions by 2020. Recent studies have shown that this won’t happen.  The current Liberal government did introduce a tax on fossil fuel usage and greenhouse emissions, but is facing several court battles spearheaded by several Conservative provincial governments.  While Canadians in polls tend to support tackling climate change as an important issue, they appear to not be willing to pay much in support of policies directed at the issue.  Especially where jobs are involved.

The recent demonstrations held across Canada and the world highlighted the concerns of future generations about the impact of climate change and the abysmal efforts of countries to seriously address the issue. One could not help but admire the anger of today’s youth over the lack of real progress in reducing carbon emissions globally and our continuing reliance on fossil fuels.  Indeed, in Canada, it didn’t help that the federal government bought an oil and gas pipeline in the hope of completing its construction down the road. It is hoped that oil from the Alberta oil fields would be transported via the pipeline to the coast of British Columbia in order to be shipped to overseas markets. Somewhat hypocritical, yes!  Then you have the federal Green Party and New Democratic Party stating that they would cancel all pipeline construction, instead preferring to invest in green and alternative technologies.  Somewhat unrealistic, yes!  The Conservative Party’s environment platform is pretty much straight forward: kill the federal carbon tax.  However, its leader has little to offer in the Party’s proposed policies, given few details, timelines and costing.  Some Conservatives, like the Republicans in the U.S., still believe that climate change is a hoax.

All in all, the major federal parties are nowhere near meeting the foreseen needs associated with effectively tackling issues surrounding climate change. The Green Party which represents the main party with a holistic environmental agenda has little chance of ever forming the government.  However, should the October election result in a minority government, the Green Party could become a major player in supporting either the Liberals or Conservatives in forming the government.  Should this happen, then Canada may just have a national government willing to deal with the urgent issues concerning climate change and carbon emissions. Perhaps, this is what Canada needs at this crucial juncture in human history.

 

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Oil and Gas Transport of Oil US

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Sep 13

Why Is The Trump Administration Attacking Environmental Protection?

by bcurry

A recent article in the New York Times (September 12, 2019) noted that up until June of the year, 85 environmental rules had been rolled back under the Trump administration. Several rules, a number of which had been implemented under the Obama administration, were aimed at preventing pollution in air and water.  In addition, some were aimed at protecting endangered species and ensuring safer drilling and extraction related to the oil and gas industry.  A simple answer is that the rollbacks are aimed to please farmers, rural landowners, developers and the coal, oil and gas industry which make up a good portion of Trump’s support.

The most recent rollback by the Trump administration is the repeal of a major Obama-era clean water regulation, known as the Waters of the United States rule, that had placed limits on polluting chemicals that could be used near streams, wetlands and other bodies of water.  This rule was designed to limit pollution in about 60 percent of the nation’s bodies of water, protecting sources of drinking water for about one-third of the United States.  We all know about the repercussions from unsafe drinking water — just think of Flint, Michigan.

For years, one admired the work of the once highly-respected U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which often led the way in environmental protection measures that Canadian environmental agencies similarly adopted. Think of the bilateral work between Canada and the U.S. in areas such as dealing with “acid rain” and the clean up of the Great Lakes.  It’s a shame that under Trump the EPA is moving backwards in terms of protecting the environment and endangered species and away from its original mandate.  To reverse these measures may take years to accomplish and the country will see serious environmental repercussions.

In terms of dealing with carbon emission reductions — think climate change — the Trump administration has taken a “laissez fare” approach, and even aggressively attacks states such as California who are trying to do something about their carbon emissions. This includes Trump’s warning to the state that a recent emissions deal with several automakers may be illegal.  A letter from the EPA and the Department of Transportation is the latest sign of President Trump’s anger at California and car manufacturers that have bucked his plans to roll back regulations put in place to combat climate change. Inevitably, the matter may end up being decided by the courts — again prompting more delays and serious drawbacks in tackling air pollution and climate change issues.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Donald Trump US

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Sep 8

How Many More Mega-Storms Will It Take?

by bcurry

As I sit here, Hurricane Dorian has just hit the Canadian Maritimes (Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick) with 160 km/hr winds, downing hydro poles and trees and removing roofs and flooding homes and businesses. After devastating the Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane, Dorian continued up the U.S. eastern seaboard leaving further destruction along its path.

Scientists continue to warn us of an increase in particularly violent storms due to the impact of climate change on the oceans and across continents. Can we do something about its impact besides shoring up infrastructure, changing agricultural patterns, reducing carbon emissions, implementing more emergency planning and resources, relocating populations further inland or to safer locations, introducing new technologies, etc., etc.?  These are simply stop-gap measures.

Given the lack of global will of governments to seriously tackle the underlying causes contributing to man-made climate change, perhaps this is all one can do! A recent study, by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, shows that about 70 percent of Americans believe that the climate is changing, most acknowledge that this change reflects human activity, and more than two-thirds think it will harm future generations.  Yet the same study found that most Americans would support energy-conserving policies only if they cost households less than $200 per year — woefully short of the investment required to keep warming under catastrophic rates.  If an identical study involving Canadians were undertaken, it would probably indicate similar results.

Merely paying lip service to and recognizing the impact of climate change is no longer any good. Societies and nations have to act and act now in real and tangible ways.  Setting targets for carbon reduction is no longer enough if no real resources are applied and major societal changes take place.  Industrialized countries like Canada and the U.S. must help to lead the way.  The environment demands it, we all must demand it.  The impact of environmental issues will affect all economies.  Sustainable plans must immediately be put in place in order to ensure our economic future and that of the planet.  People must be convinced in order to recognize and support the necessary measures to effectively deal with this reality.  Moreover, we have to walk the talk.

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May 2

Little Doubt the Climate Change Affects Economies

by bcurry

Wild winter and mid-spring storms in the American mid-west, wild fires on the West Coast, major overland flooding in Eastern Canada and extreme winter temperatures are just a few of the climate impacts affecting the North American economy. This past year has seen numerous climate-related catastrophes which have caused serious problems for several industrial sectors, including transportation, tourism, agriculture, forestry, insurance, etc., etc.  Several large corporations have taken a hit to their bottom lines, including Canadian Pacific Railways Ltd., United Parcel Service Inc., Tim Hortons Restaurants, Disney Enterprises and Air Canada.

No one can estimate exactly how much these climate events are actually costing our economies, but a rough guess would be in the billions of dollars annually to both the private and public sectors. However, we are all paying for limiting the damage, recovery and restoration activities and higher insurance premiums.  Governments are forced to allocate increasing funds to enhanced emergency services and disaster assistance to victims.  Then there is the lost in productivity due to temporary business shutdowns and loss of workforce in the aftermath of the destruction to communities and businesses, not to forget the regretful but inevitable loss of life.

Such extreme climate events appear to be becoming the norm. Governments, industries, communities and people are going to have to adapt and adjust behaviours in order to cope with this new reality.  The impact on existing infrastructure has been especially significant and costly, and will now require major investments.  People may have to move from vulnerable regions such as flood plains and potential wild fire areas.  Enhanced building codes will have to be developed and implemented, just as they are in zones prone to earthquakes.  New technologies will have to be developed to assist in preparing for and alleviating the negative outcomes associated with climate change, including those related to agriculture.

A fundamental question is just who should pay for the needed changes — tax payers, individual households or corporations? Indeed, the insurance industry has now formally recognized the impact of climate change and its associated societal costs.  Can we afford to ignore these costs.  If we do so, it’s at our own peril!  By the way, if one still doesn’t believe in climate change, one might want to check out the web site for the Canadian Center for Climate Services.

Cimate Change Climate Change US

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Apr 14

Winter May Be Over, But Crazy Weather Isn’t

by bcurry

There are two things that most of us can’t avoid: taxes and the weather. In my neck of the woods in Canada, we have endured a long and hard winter from mid-November to mid-April. We seemed to be breaking a record almost every other day — be it for temperatures or different forms of precipitation such as snow, sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, extreme weather patterns were reported across the U.S. and in different parts of the world. The headline statement in a recent federal report, commissioned by Environment and Climate Change Canada, indicated that Canada has warmed “twice as fast” as the entire planet since 1948. Boy, it sounds like we’re in big trouble now!

Despite numerous international reports confirming some form of climate change, there are still nay-sayers running around with their heads in the sand. Anything that affects the climate affects us all.  Every sector of our economy is affected, be it agriculture, tourism, transportation, insurance, manufacturing, energy, etc., etc.  We have seen an increase in damaging floods, droughts, fires, tornadoes, cyclones, hurricanes, etc., etc.  You can’t turn on the evening news broadcasts without at least one story being about a severe weather event.

Already, many communities and industries are beginning to prepare and adjust for future climate change. From an economic and survival point of view, they have no choice.  This represents the greatest challenge to humans, and ignoring or denying it does no one any favours — while doing so is at one’s peril. Yet, here we have a leader of the world’s wealthiest nation and biggest contributor to greenhouse emissions, simply looking the other way.  Instead, blind policies are implemented that will even make the situation worst, all in the name of populism.

On top of which a new World Bank report concludes that climate change will transform more than 143 million people into “climate migrants” escaping crop failure, water scarcity, and sea-level rise.  For example, many of the migrants from Central America fleeing to the north are farmers who can no longer eek out a sustainable living because of the impact of climate change on their farmlands. So while I might complain in the comfort of my home about the miserable weather we’ve been having, my circumstances are nothing compared to the misery facing many populations around the world.  Think about it!

Cimate Change Climate Change US

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