FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Sep 19

We Need to Adjust to Climate Change Now, Not Later

by bcurry

There are very few areas that aren’t affected by the consequences of climate change.  There are the number of extreme weather events that cause immediate damage and casualties, ranging from tornados and hurricanes to extreme heat and drought conditions.  Whether we can adjust to dealing with their consequences is a major question on many people’s minds, including mine.  Trying to slow up climate change appears to be a long-term goal.  This includes the introduction of new technologies to reduce the use of fossil fuels to heat and cool our homes, produce our electricity and transport people and goods.  Some refer to the increased interest in electric vehicles and renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and thermodynamics — all long-term in nature.  While this is all good and dandy, there appears to be a greater need for conservation and adjustment efforts on the part of all of us, especially in the short-term.

Increasingly, governments are being faced today with emerging issues resulting from the direct and indirect impacts on their citizens.  For example, it has been pointed out that Congress has helped cover Americans’ winter heating costs for decades.  But sweltering summers have made Americans’ energy bills soar, straining this key national safety net.  Under recent extreme heat events, Americans have died.  California has even recently introduced a new alert system designed to warn Californians of extreme heat forecasts.  In addition, these events place a great strain of the electricity infrastructure, forcing authorities to place embargos on the use of electricity, including that for air conditioning, during certain periods.  A significant proportion of the population, including the homeless, need to have access to cooling areas so as to avoid negative health impacts.  These health impacts in turn place a further burden on already strained health care facilities and emergency services.

The recent flooding of the Pearl River resulted in a temporary decrease in water production across the city of Jackson, the capital city of Mississippi.  According to state and local officials, the water system is failing.  Boil water alerts have become common place and can last for weeks.  Infrastructure from roads to water treatment is greatly in need of repair and many cases replacement.  During extreme heat events, roadways have even been known to buckle.  Bridges have been compromised and damaged due to flooding of local tributaries as a result of extreme rain events.  This in turn can cut communities off from emergency and support services, including access routes for supplies and people.  People are losing their homes.  Serious consideration must be given now to where homes are being constructed in known flood plains.

Of course, major droughts can lead to wildfires in many regions of the country, threatening towns, homes and agricultural lands.  Wildfires are unplanned and uncontrolled fires in natural areas, like forests and grasslands.  For example, the province of British Columbia (B.C.) has always experienced wildfires, but none as bad in recent years.  Evacuations of affected towns have become increasingly required.  One can’t forget the “out of control” wildfire that destroyed much of Lytton, B.C. during the summer of 2021.  Longer, hotter summers lead to more droughts and a longer wildfire season.  It is hoped that funding partnerships and community-led work, such as Firesmart, will reduce wildfire risks in B.C.  B.C. is also using climate information to set goals for resource management and to increase the resiliency of its forests.  Serious consideration must be given as to where homes are located in areas dominated by forests in particular, especially where access fire roads are few and far between.

In the area of conservation, there are a number of things that individuals and families can do.  For example, air conditioners (AC) and electric fans now account for about 10 % of electrical energy consumption all over the world.  Air conditioning can account for a whopping 60 to 70 percent of electrical power demand during peak hours.  Currently, there are companies that are in the process of developing new air conditioning technologies, thereby reducing the use of hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, which are greenhouse gases.  Hopefully, these ACs will become affordable and available in the near future.  Apparently, they could be two to three times more productive than the most common ACs on the current market.  In the meantime, people should now use their ACs in a restrained and sensible manner.

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Jul 29

How ‘Denial Syndrome’ Plays Out In COVID- 19 And Climate Change Debates

by bcurry

Just what is ‘denial syndrome’?  Psychologists define denial as the psychological process by which a painful truth is pushed out of an individual’s consciousness.  We use denial as a defense mechanism, to protect ourselves from the force of a truth we imagine will be too shattering for us to cope with.  Some current issues such as climate change and the global pandemic have made us feel deeply insecure about the present and the future.  This is where denial comes into its own as a way out.  It’s a lot easier than thinking up a series of individual excuses — just simply deny the whole problem exists.  Unfortunately, despite the best scientific evidence and explanation, there are health-care professionals who claimed the pandemic was all a hoax and environmentalists who deny that climate change exists.  This has led to a barrage of misinformation being put out and the emergence of conspiracy theories.

Take for example, the fact that several physicians in Canada have had their medical licences suspended by professional bodies for providing misinformation to patients about COVID vaccines, masking and available treatments.  Without any scientific evidence or studies, some have even made public assertions such as that COVID vaccines are more dangerous than the virus itself.  Some of these doctors taken to task by their regulator have challenged the discipline actions, arguing that they violate their right to free expression.  Earlier this month, the head the American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM), one of the biggest U.S. licensing bodies, commented on the free speech argument for doctors.  He stressed that if physicians want to keep their credentials, the concept of free speech does not extend to communicating misinformation, especially when such information can potentially harm their patients or pose a potential risk to public health.

When it comes to climate change, despite all of the scientific evidence that climatologists and other experts have gathered over decades, there are still some who would deny that it is an actual global issue.  Climate change science has been settled for decades, yet policymakers have yet to take sweeping action, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb to record highs.  There are some politicians who still believe that humans have nothing to do with what is happening to our climate.  The resulting inaction is driving some scientists to engage in civil disobedience.  A global campaign by Scientist Rebellion (SR) has begun.  SR is a climate network of scientists of all stripes and degrees aimed at partaking in non-violent civil disobedience and demanding climate action.  This past April, the group mobilized an estimated 1,000 scientists in 26 countries in protest.

Climate change denial is all around us.  Just today, I read a letter to the local newspaper by someone commenting on the recent U.K. heat wave which got a lot of attention for reaching a “record-breaking” 40 C in July.  The writer even had to go back as far as 1936 to note that London had reached 43.7 degrees centigrade during a two-day heat wave.  On top of which, he claims that so-called ‘eco-anxiety’ is rising because of the number of media stories that focus on extreme weather and blame it on climate change.  It certainly appeared to be the use of unsubstantiated arguments about biased reporting and ‘fake news’ as a denial tool.

Among conservative groups and political parties in both the U.S. and Canada, there are plenty of deniers to go around when it comes to these two issues.  Amazingly, they can produce their own experts and conspiracy theories in defence of their positions.  Why not just ignore the facts, much as former U.S. president Donald Trump did!  Incredibly, in the name of freedom of expression, some Republican politicians in the U.S., such as in Tennessee, have even gone further by introducing legislation to prohibit state medical boards from disciplining doctors who spread COVID falsehoods or prescribe unproven treatments.  Interestingly, with just 55 percent of its population double-vaccinated, Tennessee has suffered more than four times as many COVID deaths per 100,000 as the province of Ontario.

Whether personal or organizational, denial has real consequences.  No better examples are applicable to those related to climate change and the pandemic.

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Mar 28

What both Canada and the U.S. have in common when it comes to the Artic and Russia

by bcurry

Back in 2016, a report to Congress by the U.S. Department of Defense appeared to call for American ships to challenge Canadian claims in the Arctic.  The U.S. has had three active marine disputes with Canada in the Arctic, including over 21,000 square kilometres in the Beaufort Sea and two smaller areas of the Dixon Passage, between British Columbia and Alaska.  In addition, in the past the U.S. Coast Guard has sent ice breakers through the Northwest Passage without seeking Canadian permission.  Then came issues surrounding access to minerals and fossil fuels located on the Arctic sea floor, especially as climate change and melting sea ice were helping to open up these waters to year round navigation and maritime shipping.  In 2017, this in turn led to President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau jointly signing a moratorium on new oil and gas leasing in Arctic waters.

However, now enters Russia who we all know are very active in opening up their Arctic waters.  In the past, Russia has made it clear it intends to control the so-called Northern Sea Route off its northern shore, a route that significantly shortens the shipping distance between China and Northern Europe.  U.S. officials have complained that Russia is illegally demanding that other nations seek permission to pass and threatening to use military force to sink vessels that do not comply.  Two years ago, Moscow brought its own war games barrelling through the Bering Sea, with Russian commanders testing weapons and demanding that American fishing boats operating in U.S. fishing waters get out of the way — an order the U.S. Coast Guard advised them to comply with at the time.  In addition, Russia has repeatedly sent military aircraft to the edge of U.S. and Canadian airspace, leading U.S. and Canadian jets to scramble to intercept them and warn them away.

Russia is far ahead of both Canada and the U.S. in creating ice-breaking capacity and particularly in the building of large nuclear-powered icebreakers.  Their nuclear propulsion systems allow them to smash through much thicker ice than conventionally powered vessels giving them a full winter capacity to push through the up to three-metre ice encountered at that certain times of the year. In 2019, the American government began pondering the construction of three heavy icebreakers and three medium-sized vessels.  The Trump Administration ordered an overview of the nation’s icebreaker fleet, with an eye toward fielding a new, rejuvenated fleet by 2029.  The current fleet of Canadian Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships, now under construction, will still have limited icebreaking capacity, and to date little progress has been made toward the actual construction of a planned heavy polar icebreaker.  Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns over Russia’s military capability and intentions in our Arctic waters have grown.  All signs indicate that Russia is reinvesting in its military capabilities and presence in the region.

Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand is pledging to modernize the alliance protecting Canada’s North particularly in terms of our Arctic sovereignty.  Hopefully, the Russian threat may actually now lead to Canada and the U.S. to finally reaching agreement on the status of the critical Northwest Passage between the North Atlantic and the Beaufort Sea.  However, some observers will argue that the European Artic waters — comprised of Norway, Denmark and Iceland — are more vulnerable to Russian shipping and military initiatives in the North.  One has to remember that these countries are part of NATO, and we are then, of course, obligated to go to their defence in the event of any military incursion.  Since the Russian threat is also an aerospace one, there is an urgent need to strengthen the current capabilities of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).  First created during the Cold War to protect against a Soviet attack, NORAD is a joint military command between Canada and the U.S. that provides airspace surveillance.  America’s strategic air command’s bombers fly over Canadian aerospace on a daily basis.  However, the technology of NORAD’s north warning system was only last modernized in 1985, and requires an immediate modernization designed to counter imminent dangers of the day — long range bomber threats from the Soviet Union.

What all this means is that Canada and the U.S. had better get their acts together to protect their Arctic maritime and aerospace regions.  The sooner the better!

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Dec 6

With More Extreme Weather Occurrences, Governments Will Have To Act Faster

by bcurry

With the recent forest fires, hurricanes and severe floods, both Canada and the U.S. are being forced to increasingly provide support to provinces and states for immediate assistance and longer-term recovery initiatives.  However, Canada does not have any federal agency equivalent to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the U.S.  However, recently there has been more interest in Canada to potentially creating a similar federal agency to FEMA given the recent destructive and massive flooding of regions in British Columbia.

FEMA is an agency of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), initially created under President Jimmy Carter in 1978 and implemented by two Executive Orders in 1979.  FEMA’s primary purpose is to coordinate the response to a disaster that has occurred in the U.S. and that overwhelms the resources of local and state authorities. The governor of the state in which the disaster occurs must declare a state of emergency and formally request from the President that FEMA and the federal government respond to the disaster.  FEMA also provides funds for training of response personnel throughout the U.S. and its territories as part of the agency’s preparedness effort.  While on-the-ground support of disaster recovery efforts is a major part of FEMA’s charter, the agency provides state and local governments with experts in specialized fields and funding for rebuilding efforts and relief funds for infrastructure repair.

However, even FEMA has incurred criticism in recent years, particularly in relation to the impact of hurricanes Katrina that hit New Orleans in 2005, Harvey that hit the Houston area in 2017, Laura that hit Louisiana in 2020, and Ida that hit Louisiana this past summer.  Among the criticism about FEMA is that it takes an inordinately long time to place every displaced resident in temporary housing, sometimes months and sometimes years as in the case of Katrina.  More than three months after Hurricane Ida tore through coastal Louisiana, thousands of residents of the hardest hit bayou communities remain displaced.  This raises the question as the whether supplying temporary or replacement housing for disaster victims is an appropriate role for government?  Most people would agree that it is.

Public Safety Canada helps Canadians and their communities protect themselves from emergencies and disasters related to all kinds of hazards – natural, human-induced and technological – through national leadership in the development and implementation of policies, plans and a range of programs.  The Department maintains a loose network of partnerships with other federal government institutions, provincial and territorial emergency management organizations, first responders and voluntary organizations, and other stakeholders and communities, supporting a whole-of-society approach to emergency management that leverages resources and capacities at all levels across the country.  However, the federal government relies heavily on providing immediate assistance through the Department of National Defence and non-profit organizations such as the Canadian Red Cross as requested.

Given the nature of recent disasters often associated with the impact of climate change, the Canadian government needs to seriously rethink how it handles such future disasters in an efficient, timely and effective manner.  There is a real need for a central agency to do pre-planning in order to prepare for future emergencies.  Preventative measures to deal with climate and environmental related causes will have to be developed and implemented on a long-term basis.  National coordination of such initiatives is a must, and more than sufficient funding needs to be allotted as soon as possible.  After all, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.  National, provincial and local infrastructure needs to be immediately assessed to determine its capacity to withstand imminent future natural disasters.  Providing the means to immediately support displaced individuals and quickly provide temporary housing is essential to the well-being of both Canadians and Americans.

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Dec 5

Two Top News Topics in 2021: The Global Pandemic and Climate Change

by bcurry

Anyone who has been closely following the main street news media will highlight the fact that the two most written about news topics during the past year were the global pandemic and climate change.  The main difference between these two topics is that the impact of climate change was foreseen for some time, and the global pandemic came out of nowhere.  On the one hand, the impact of COVID-19 was immediate and introduced serious economic consequences in the short-term.  On the other hand, the impact of climate change is expected to be more long-term and will affect different regions in different ways at different times.

The big news was that several vaccines were quickly developed for COVID-19 and appeared to offer an effective means to ending the pandemic, especially in the more industrialized countries.  There is however no short-term fix to tackle the consequences of climate change, including the needed reduction in greenhouse gases.  The World Health Organization (WHO) is the one primary body that can address pandemic issues for both industrialized and emerging countries.  The WHO is leading the charge to get vaccination rates up in the emerging and poorer countries.  There really is no primary international body that can speak to climate change, with individual countries having to develop their own initiatives.  The agreement coming out of the COP26 conference in November does not achieve the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris accord — to limit Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.  Instead, delegations left Glasgow with the Earth still on track to blow past that threshold, pushing toward a future of escalating weather crises and irreversible damage to the natural world.

However, the differences between industrialized and emerging countries are quite stark for the socio-economic impact of both the pandemic and climate change.  In both cases, the lesser developed countries in Africa, Asia and the Americas will suffer greater consequences from any failure to adequately address both issues.  What is common about both topics has been the extensive use of statistics by news outlets and government bodies to track such consequences, including fatalities and economic impacts.  Moreover, politicians and heads of state have had to take a back seat to climate scientists and epidemiologists when it came to the development and implementation of policies and initiatives.  For the most part, science took the lead over current and future efforts.  Repeatedly, politicians were forced to rely on the results of scientific study and research, a novelty in some countries. 

Of course, there are always the deniers and conspiracists who oppose the conclusions of scientific research as it applies to COVID-19 and climate change.  Unfortunately, among the first deniers on both issues were such political leaders as U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.  Initially, both the U.S. and Brazil had had what was arguably the worst pandemic policy response in the industrialized world.  Under both administrations, environmental laws and initiatives were negatively affected.  President Bolsonaro, who has pushed to open more of the Amazon rainforest to mining and agriculture since taking office in 2019, has been criticized at home and abroad for increased deforestation under his government.  Interestingly enough and ironically, both Presidents became sick with COVID-19 while in office.

Something tells me that by this time next year, both of these major issues will continue to dominate the global news.  There are still further economic, social and political consequences that will attributed to these two issues.  The pandemic most likely and hopefully will evolve into a more localized endemic problem.  More extreme weather will continue to plague several regions of the world, including in the U.S. and Canada.  Unless there is the unleashing of a Third World War, the headlines will no doubt continue to focus on the issues surrounding climate change and COVID-19.

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Jul 28

Appointment of Remarkable Indigenous Woman to be Canada’s 30th Governor General

by bcurry

On July 26th, Mary Simon was officially appointed the Queen’s representative to Canada.  What is extraordinary is that Mary Simon is Inuk, having been born and raised in what is now Nunavut.  Nunavut is one of Canada’s three northern territories and is populated primarily by the Inuk people.  Now of course, the role of the Governor General is primarily ceremonial, but there are certain situations where the Prime Minister as head of government must consult with the Governor General, such as in the case of dissolving Parliament and calling a federal election.  What is more important, that as head of state, the Governor General will oversee a number of ceremonial events such as the opening of Parliament and awarding Canadians with various titles of recognition for service and achievements.

What is even more important, in this period of reconciliation with indigenous peoples, Mary Simon will have numerous opportunities to travel the country and meet with Canadians in their communities.  She appears to be devoted to trying to bring Canadians together and to serve as a bridge for people of different races, colour, life preferences, religions, etc., etc.  She is also committed to improving the economic and social situation for people in the Artic, many of whom have been forgotten by past governments in Ottawa.  She has also been a major spokesperson for issues surrounding climate change, particularly in global Artic regions.  In her inauguration address to Parliament, Mary Simon demonstrated her sincere desire to serve all Canadians in a respectful and humble manner.

In a time when the current pandemic has created more divisions among Canadians, an effective and respected Governor General can certainly help to address some of the critical issues we face, without the appearance of adhering to any particular political biases.  She has talked about real acts of meaningful reconciliation and the need for healing in Aboriginal communities across Canada.  Through tolerance and understanding, she believes that Canada can truly become a country of diversity, greater equality and hope.  I, like many Canadians, could not but be impressed with the inspiring words of our new head of state.  We can only hope that Her Excellency, the Right Honourable Mary Simon, as our 30th and first Inuk Governor General, will help all of us to heal and move forward in a positive way.  She certainly has challenging work set out for her!

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Jul 18

Despite Evidence to the Contrary, Climate Change Skepticism Lingers in the U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

An extreme heat wave affected much of Western North America in late June and early July of this year. The heat affected Northern California, Idaho, Western Nevada, Oregon, and Washington in the U.S., as well as Canada’s British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan and Yukon.  The extreme heat was accompanied by droughts, hundreds of wildfires, hundreds of heat-related deaths, the interruption of major interstate transmission and rail lines, and the evacuation of dozens of towns and communities.  In the case of the village of Lytton, British Columbia, it was sadly completely destroyed by wildfires.  International researchers concluded that the extraordinary heat wave in the northwestern United States and parts of Canada would almost certainly not have occurred without global warming.

Yet, despite all the evidence to the contrary, there are still Americans and Canadians, often living in the most affected regions, who remain skeptical about the impact of climate change.  For example, they instead blame more severe wildfires on the federal government’s water policies and forestry management, referring to it as ‘environmentally caused mismanagement’.  Unfortunately, skepticism appears to be highest in the U.S. partly because of a major distrust of everything that has to do with the federal government, similar to that found among anti-vaccination groups as it pertains to COVID-19.  

Seeing the results of climate change during the past decade, there are those who believe that we have to invest more in developing infrastructures that can withstand the future impacts of such extreme weather events, including flooding along our coastlines.  These investments will have to include looking at major infrastructure changes to energy transmission, water conservation, building structures, crop management, forestry management, emergency preparedness, etc., etc.  In order to better cope with future extreme weather events and other impacts due to climate change, the needed infrastructure changes will cost trillions of dollars.  There is no segment of society that will not be affected.

In order to deal with those skeptical segments of society, we will have to do a better job of countering misinformation about climate change and informing people about the serious inevitable consequences of not preparing for impacts associated with climate change.  This is the number one priority for the human race.  Given the course that we are on, there must be a clear understanding among all of us of the urgent need to get even more serious about this issue.  People have a right to be skeptical, but not to the extent that it places them in real danger.  This is exactly what’s happening now!  This issue is beyond a doubt the priority for the twenty-first century as it affects every aspect of our society, and societies in other countries, especially those in the so-called Third World.  Without sounding overly alarmist, our lives and livelihoods depend on our dealing with the impacts of climate change today and not tomorrow!

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Jun 3

Next to News About the Pandemic, Climate Change Remains in the Headlines

by bcurry

There is little doubt in my mind that crucial issues surrounding ‘climate change’ continue to surface.  Just look at a few of headlines over the past year from several news outlets:

  • Smoke from wildfires wiped out the United State’s pandemic-related clean air gains in 2020 (Washington Post, March 17)
  • Climate change is making big problems bigger (New York Times, May 13) 
  • How debt and climate change pose a ‘systemic risk to the global economy’ (UK Time News, April 7)
  • A 20-foot sea wall? Miami faces the hard choices of climate change (New York Times, June 2)
  • Carbon dioxide spikes to critical new record, halfway to doubling pre-industrial levels (Washington Post, April 6)
  • Swift action to cut methane emissions could slow Earth’s warming by 30 percent, study finds (Washington Post, April 27)
  • Countries must ramp up climate pledges by 80 percent to hit key Paris target, study finds (Washington Post, February 9)
  • Climate change could cut world economy by $23 Trn in 2050: Swiss Re warns (New York Times, April 22)
  • Earth is now losing 1.2 trillion tons of ice each year. And it’s going to get worse. (Washington Post, January 26)
  • Unprepared and under-insured Canada warned about escalating risk of mega-hurricanes (Bloomberg News, May 21)

These are just a sampling of the dozens of articles that I came across so far this year.  As the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reiterates whenever it can, climate change is already happening around the United States.  In many cases, that change is speeding up.  Canada is no exception.  The world will see more extreme weather events and associated disasters, including wildfires, droughts, heat waves, rising sea levels, flooding, lost of permafrost in northern hemisphere, increased insect infestations, property destruction, etc., etc.  Scientists say the world needs to prevent average global temperatures from rising more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels to avoid irreversible damage to the planet.  As in the case of dealing with the pandemic, we have no choice but to rely on the science when it comes to ascertaining the projected impact of climate change should we continue on our current course of action.  The evidence is irrefutable!

As with the pandemic, climate change is a global issue and must be tackled through the cooperation and commitment of all countries, including the U.S. and Canada.  Otherwise, we will continue to see more and more articles and discussions like those above with respect to the various impacts resulting from the failure to immediately and adequately deal with climate change.  As with the pandemic, there is also a human dimension behind all the statistics.

In the past year, I also blogged about ‘climate change’, as noted in the following blogs:

All of a Sudden, Climate Change is Back in the News | FROLITICKS (wordpress.com)

Although Climate Change Has Taken a Back Seat to the Pandemic, Today It’s Still a Major Issue | FROLITICKS (wordpress.com)

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May 3

There is a Catch-22 in Pipeline Issues Between Canada and the U.S.

by bcurry

Following Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president, he took the widely expected step through an executive order of cancelling the cross-border permit for the US$14.4-billion Alberta-to-Texas heavy oil pipeline, the Keystone XL pipeline. The decision marks the third time a U.S. president has blocked the construction of this pipeline.  Next occurred the decision by Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer last November which ordered Calgary-based Enbridge to shut down its nearly 70-year-old Line 5 pipeline by May 12, 2021.  Line 5 carries each day up to 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids across Michigan and under the Great Lakes.  Line 5 is part of Enbridge’s mainland system carrying fuel from Alberta’s oil sands to the Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Canada, especially to refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.  Not surprisingly, President Biden’s and Governor Whitmer’s decisions were applauded by environmentalists and Indigenous groups on both sides of the border.

The difficulty is that Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, and the U.S. is its top customer.  While past incidents have occurred where crude oil leakages in pipelines, including those which are part of Enbridge’s mainland system, the alternative means of transportation via rail and trucking also represents serious safety issues.  This potential danger was clearly demonstrated in the fiery derailment in July 2013 in Lac-Megantic, Quebec, which killed 47 people and wiped out part of the town.  From an economic point of view, the transport of crude oil and natural gas liquids by pipeline is the most efficient and least costly option.  Realistically, any transition within the U.S. or Canada away from fossil fuels will take time.  While the elimination of fossil fuels makes good environmental sense in light of climate change, there continues to be a dependence on fossil fuels for servicing our industries, running our transportation hubs, producing electricity and heating our homes.  Both countries have to cooperatively work together towards achieving environmental goals without creating bad relations between our governments and citizens.

Back in January, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney asked the Canadian government to push the U.S. government to reimburse the $1.5 billion it stands to lose from the cancellation of Keystone XL and to reimburse TC Energy, the project proponent, for the money it has sunk into the project.  Alberta took an ownership stake in 2020, representing more than $1 billion in taxpayer money to fund the construction of the pipeline.  The Biden administration’s decision to block the Keystone XL pipeline has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a very difficult situation, one which he has raised with the President.  On the one hand he has to support Alberta’s oil and gas industry.  On the other hand the Prime Minister has agreed reduce in Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  This brings Canada in line with the Biden administration recent pledge to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

Critics of the decision to shut down the Line 5 pipeline note that 6,500 good-paying jobs in Sarnia, Ontario, are on the line.  A further 23,500 indirect jobs in that same region could also be impacted, and thousands more across Ontario and Quebec.  Line 5 also feeds into Line 9, which carries oil to refineries in Montreal and Lévis for Quebec’s supply needs.  According to Minister of Natural Resources Seamus O’Regan, Line 5 delivers 66 percent of the crude oil consumed in Quebec.  This means that besides Alberta, the Premiers of Ontario and Quebec are extremely unhappy with the Michigan Governor’s position.  Any decision to move crude oil and natural gas liquids by alternate means is considered less safe, more costly and realistically not viable given the vast quantities that have to be transported.  This is your Catch-22.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. need to work much more closely to resolve all relevant issues pertinent to their respective constituents.  Our continuing good trade and political relationships are in the balance.

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Apr 23

All of a Sudden, Climate Change is Back in the News

by bcurry

The Biden administration has just announced that it will unveil a more aggressive plan to cut U.S. green house gases (GHG) — probably around 50 percent by the end of the decade, compared with 2005 levels.  Other countries, including Canada, also announced their intentions to cut GHGs by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  In addition, despite diplomatic clashes, the U.S. and China vow to work together on climate change.  However, it is reported meanwhile that carbon dioxide levels spiked to a critical new record, halfway to doubling pre-industrial CO2 levels.  In addition, forecasts by Swiss Re estimate that the effects of climate change can be expected to shave 11 to 14 percent off global economic output by 2050 compared with growth levels without climate change, possibly by as much as $23 trillion.  Poorer countries are expected to suffer the most.  Swiss Re is one of the world’s largest providers of insurance to other insurance companies.  Needless-to-say, among insurance companies, the ultimate impact of climate change on their business is of growing concern.  During the past 40 years, the U.S. alone has experienced almost 300 weather and climate-related disasters that exceeded $1 billion in losses each.  Last year alone, there were 22 such billion-dollar disasters.

While it is great to see that the U.S. and Canada are upping their pledges to combat climate change through huge investments, one can only hope that it’s not too little or too late.  However, the very fact that climate change is back on the agenda in a serious way, despite their obvious recent concentration on the pandemic, is a good thing.  Numerous industry sectors, including the oil and gas industry, have come forward with plans to help curb GHGs.  Government support for green industries will help to promote credible proposals on hydrogen-based and carbon sequestration initiatives.  In recent months, there have been numerous accounts of the automotive sector’s initiatives to increase the number of electric vehicles in the coming years.  Finally, one is beginning to see a change in the thinking of business leaders, recognizing the inevitability of societal demands to tackle climate change in real terms.

Despite being an optimist, I cannot help but continue to be a little sceptical as to how quickly certain industry sectors will move to implement green technologies.  Like the pandemic, climate change requires a global approach to dealing with its impact.  We have seen how difficult it is to really develop international strategies to resolve the pandemic when it seems each and every country is focussing primarily on its own domestic situation.  Unlike the pandemic which hopefully will come under control in the coming year, climate change requires longer-term initiatives and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Climate Change

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