FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Will Vulnerable Countries Have Adequate Access to COVID Vaccines?

Many are celebrating the fact that the end of 2020 has seen the arrival of COVID vaccines from pharmaceutical manufacturers, and rightly so.  Indeed, the U.S. has already secured claims on as many as 1.5 billion doses of approved and potential vaccines, while the European Union has locked up nearly two billion doses — enough to vaccinate all of their citizens and then some. Canada is in line to receive millions of vaccine doses early in the new year.  However, reports indicate that many poor countries could be left waiting until 2024 to fully vaccinate their populations, if they’re lucky.  In addition, access to vaccines is not based on need.  It’s based on the ability to pay and the need for pharmaceutical companies (primarily located in the advanced economies) to waive traditional protections on intellectual property, thereby allowing poor countries to make affordable versions of the vaccines.  Unfortunately, the work of the World Trade Organization (W.T.O.) and the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) to provide needed aid to poor countries has been blocked by the Trump administration.  On top of which, the Trump administration has also withdrawn financial and moral support for the vital work of the World Health Organization (W.H.O.).

This has left the masses of people in poor countries with no short-term access to vaccines, in economic chaos and with rising public debt.  This global pandemic will result in existing economic inequalities between the have and have-not countries becoming even greater.  Some will even argue that the ravages of the pandemic in poor countries, largely unchecked by vaccines, could limit economic fortunes globally.  Governments in the wealthy countries must at some point shore up the assistance necessary to support health care systems and vulnerable populations in poor countries.  The Canadian government recently announced that it is part of a global movement to ensure that available surplus COVID vaccines will be offered to vulnerable countries as soon as possible.  When and by how much are two questions that immediately come to mind!

One can only hope that the incoming Biden administration will quickly proceed to address this important issue and lend the full support of the American nation to such organizations as the W.T.O., I.M.F. and W.H.O. in combating this global pandemic.  Without the full American participation, the ability to ensure that sufficient COVID vaccines are available to vulnerable countries becomes a mute issue.  Just as the pandemic created a health crisis in wealthy countries, it has created an even bigger one in the poorer countries.  Unless the current situation changes, it is predicted that many poor countries will no doubt be left waiting until 2024 to fully vaccinate their populations.  If true, this could become the worst international tragedy of this century.

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Like Several U.S. States, Alberta Took Too Long to Introduce COVID-19 Measures

Canada has its regional equivalent to Georgia, Iowa, South Dakota and Florida.  It’s the Western province of Alberta.  Just this week, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney imposed a province-wide lockdown, calling it a “last resort”.  Back in November, Alberta had declared a state of public health emergency.  The measures will last at least four weeks — meaning family gatherings will be prohibited over the Christmas season.  It will involve an immediate mandatory province-wide mask law, a shutdown of restaurants and bars and a ban on social gatherings of any kind.  Kenney’s recent elected United Conservative government had been reticent to implement restrictions, citing the balance between the consequences of a prolonged economic closure and the harms of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Alberta was the sole province in the country without a province-wide mandatory mask law, although many municipalities had enacted bylaws.  Even in areas without such laws, many retail outlets require them.

Alberta, with a third the population of Ontario, was having the same number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as that province, with a weekly high positive-test rate of over 8 percent.  In late November, Alberta had more than 13,000 active cases, the most in the entire country, despite having fewer people than Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.  Deaths had climbed close to 500, and more than 300 people were in hospital, with more than 60 of them in intensive care units (ICUs).  So far in December, Alberta is shattering records, with over 1,800 new cases daily and a positive-test rate of 9.5 percent.  Straining the capacity of the health-care system in the province, the Alberta government has asked the federal government and the Red Cross to supply four field hospitals to care for COVID-19 patients.

Like the Upper Midwest and Plains states in the U.S., Albertans tend to reflect a mid-West attitude in their opinions of government and any perceived impact on their liberties.  If any province were similar in outlooks to Americans, Alberta could be the equivalent of a 51st state.  They have primarily voted for conservative governments for over the last half century and often express their objections to federal government intrusions into their affairs, especially when it comes to the oil and gas and cattle industries.  When all taxes are taken into consideration, Albertans across all income ranges generally pay lower overall taxes compared to other provinces.  Alberta continues to be the only province in Canada without a provincial sales tax.  For years, the province relied heavily on receiving royalties from its oil and gas industry to supplement its revenues.  However, with the pandemic and the recent downturn in oil and gas demand, Alberta’s economy and its people have greatly suffered.  Now, they have to cope with increasing COVID-19 outbreaks and the resulting strain on their health-care system.

The Alberta government’s current lockdown is receiving criticism from doctors and others, who argue that while the measures might have succeeded had they been implemented weeks ago, they now are coming too late.  For months, Albertans continued to flock to bars and restaurants and to congregate for funerals, weddings and church services.  Like many in the states, scores of Albertans protested any form of restrictions despite the clear evidence that not taking precautions would lead to more people becoming sick and dying.  Interestingly, recent surveys show that Jason Kenney’s administration is considered by Albertans to be among the worst in Canada when it comes to dealing with the pandemic at the provincial level.  Reminds you of anyone?

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Although Climate Change Has Taken a Back Seat to the Pandemic, Today It’s Still a Major Issue

The annual cost of catastrophic weather disasters is rising sharply.  Meanwhile, Canada and the U.S. aren’t doing enough to prepare for future disasters.  In the last year we’ve seen severe storms, hurricanes, wildfires and major droughts across North America.  There is little scientific doubt that this is the result of climate change.  According to a recent report by the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, the costs of weather-related disasters equalled 5 to 6 percent of Canada’s annual economic growth since 2010, compared with an average of about 1 percent prior to that year.  Based largely on data from the Insurance Bureau of Canada, there were $14.5 billion (US$11.2 billion) of direct disaster-related costs from 2010 through 2019.  This is very likely an underestimation, particularly when indirect costs are taken into account.

Unfortunately, the current coronavirus pandemic has to a large extent put the issues surrounding climate change on the back burner for the time being.  Most experts would agree that, even without the pandemic, the bad news is that climate-change adaptation in Canada is far behind where it needs to be.  In addition, Canada still relies heavily on the fossil fuel industry as a major driver of its resource-based economy.  A number of studies have shown that the Canadian banking industry still invests heavily in the fossil fuel industry.  One recent study by the Rainforest Action Network notes that in the 4 1/2 years since the Paris agreement on climate change, fossil-fuel lending has grown at five major Canadian banks.  These banks provided more than $131 billion (Canadian) to oil and gas companies in 2019 alone.  Even the Export Development Canada, an arm’s-length federal agency that helps Canadian industry sell its products abroad, averaged about $10 billion (Canadian) a year in support for fossil fuels exports.

CEOs at Canada’s major banks may well pay lip service to reducing the carbon intensity of their investments and their support for green technologies, but the reality is that they have continued to greatly finance the fossil fuel industry.  Some have even promised to be carbon neutral by 2050, aligning themselves with Paris agreement targets.  However, their financial support significantly assists in investments related to exploration, production, refining, and transportation of fossil fuels — all of which contribute to Canada’s and to global carbon emissions.  Some will argue that it is the sole role of banks to make money and it is their primary responsibility to support the Canadian economy.  But at what cost? 

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Who Among Us Is Ready To Be Vaccinated For COVID-19?

Now that anti-coronavirus vaccines are on the horizon, possibly as early as next month in the U.S., who among us is ready to be vaccinated?  Bioethicists are now jumping into the fray in order to suggest some alternative approaches for early vaccination selection.  According to the Canadian National Advisory Committee on Immunization, it is recommending four initial key groups: those at risk of severe illness and death (such as the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions), essential workers most likely to transmit the disease (such as health-care workers), those at risk who live in communities that could suffer disproportionate consequences (such as isolated Indigenous communities), and other workers providing services that contribute to “the functioning of society.

Up to now, the Canadian federal government, which is responsible for the eventual national distribution of vaccines to the regions, has given little indication as to which groups will receive the first inoculations.  Since the coronavirus has especially been deadly for seniors and particularly those in long-term care residences, it would not be a surprise that their residents and staffs would be at the front of the line.  After that, officials will most probably target health care workers and first responders who are needed to treat persons sick with COVID-19.  Given the current increasing numbers of cases in the U.S. and Canada, there is little doubt that more hospitalizations will occur.  Unfortunately, the arrival of vaccines will not curtail the impending massive increases over the winter period in related death tolls.  Others who are young and for the most part healthy will likely have to wait to be vaccinated.

Then there are those who will not want to be vaccinated for whatever reasons.  It’s impossible for anyone to be forced to take the COVID-19 vaccine once it’s available.  Opinion polls have shown that over one in four Americans are very likely going to not get vaccinated, some of whom are anti-vaccinationists to begin with.  Others will simply take a wait and see approach, not trusting the claims by public health officials that the vaccines are safe with no serious side effects.  Another consideration is that while at least 19 countries already have programs in place that compensate individuals injured by vaccines, Canada does not except for Quebec.  The U.S. has the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program which is a no-fault alternative to the traditional legal system for resolving vaccine injury petitions.  However, individuals must file a petition for compensation with the U.S. Court of Federal Claims if they believe they were injured by a covered vaccine.  Resolving such claims is no doubt a lengthy process with no guarantee of compensation in the end.

Failure to get vaccinated may come with specific consequences.  For example, one can certainly imagine that the authorities and businesses may want proof of vaccination before someone can return to work or go to school.  Furthermore, one’s freedom to travel by air or public transportation may be restricted without proof of immunization.  Until much of the population is adequately vaccinated and so-called “herd immunity” sets in, people are being urgently warned to continue to avoid crowds, wear masks and practice good hygiene in the meantime.  It will be many months until we will have this terrible virus under control, hopefully as a result of the effective implementation of national and regional vaccination programs.  This includes the buy-in of the majority of the population.  As they say, hope rests eternal!

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What Does “De-funding of the Police” Really Suggest and Why?

Here in Canada and the U.S., certain interest groups have called for the de-funding of the police.  In 2020, prompted by several high profile incidents on both sides of the Canadian border, many Canadians took part in protests calling for an end to racial bias and misconduct by police towards Indigenous and racialized people in Canada.  Yet, the issues surrounding systemic racism can be found throughout society, requiring a more holistic approach.  Furthermore, a 2019 Statistics Canada survey found that just over 4 in 10 (41%) Canadians aged 15 and older in the provinces reported having a great deal of confidence in the police, while nearly half (49%) said they had some confidence. Less than 1 in 10 (9%) Canadians reported having low confidence in police—that is, not very much or no confidence at all.

Understandably, those who reported less or no confidence in the police were among distinct groups that included Indigenous peoples, visible minorities, people with mental or cognitive disabilities and bisexual persons (those who self-identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual or otherwise not heterosexual).  Even among these groupings there were differences in the reported level of confidence in the police.  While those who reported having had recent negative interactions with police expressed low confidence in them, the correlation between such negative interactions and their obvious discontent, whether legitimate or not, is hardly surprising.

My initial understanding of the de-funding of the police is that fewer police would be needed if more social services were available to handle cases involving these distinct groups.  The difficulty with the premise is that we are still a society where the rule of law must prevail.  As such, there will always be a need for certain degree of enforcement that will ensure that the majority of citizens feel relatively safe in their communities.  Indeed, the vast majority of policing should be about prevention by ensuring that violators of laws are safely apprehended.  In support of this societal goal, one only has to think of violent crimes, traffic violations, organized criminals, break-ins, terrorism, etc., etc.

Of course, how enforcement is carried out can always be improved.  Many recent community service innovations by police have involved greater liaison with social service agencies, community representatives and health care practitioners.  A first important step has always been to better educate enforcement personnel with respect to their interaction with these distinct groups, in particular persons with mental or cognitive disabilities.  The police are dealing with daily and difficult symptoms of a society lacking in sufficient resources to tackle poverty, inadequate health care, deficient education resources, mental illnesses, systemic racism, etc., etc.  Law enforcement is an inherent and essential part of our society and the majority will clearly oppose the de-funding of the police as promoted by certain distinct groups.  Realistically, this controversial concept is a non-starter — period.

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Why Has Tracking of Coronavirus Cases Become Such an Issue?

As the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases increase in Canada and in the U.S., there has been a greater interest in tracing where the cases originate.  Such data is then used in some cases by governments to introduce accessibility restrictions or simply impose a complete lockdown of businesses and government services.  For months, places like gyms and restaurants have been linked to outbreaks of COVID-19.  One recent study compiled using location data collected by SafeGraph in the U.S. linked more than 80 percent of infections to locations such as full-service restaurants, gyms, hotels, cafés, religious organizations and limited-service restaurants.  What all these locations have in common is of course the fact that they have people congregating in significant numbers, often in close quarters.

However, I have difficulty as to why the emphasis is being placed on tracking which really represents outcomes after cases have been confirmed.  Instead, we may be better off looking at realistic ways of dealing with such gatherings as a preventive measure.  After all, a once of prevention is worth a pound of cure.  Furthermore, there are a lot of assumptions about the use of such tracing methodologies.  Indeed, in Ontario (Canada) authorities admit that where 60 percent of infections occurred is simply unknown.  Unlike some American states, provinces here have instituted a variety of restrictions on locations and gatherings, including lockdowns, since the pandemic became an concern back in the spring.

It doesn’t take an epidemiologist to figure out how people become more vulnerable to COVID-19.  After all, the virus takes the form an aerosol spread by an infected individual(s), asymptomatic or not, in an enclosed area where people can breath in the virus.  Most dangerous locations involve spaces where people cannot adequately physically distance, are not wearing masks or applicable personal protective equipment (PPE) and there is poor ventilation.  At the outset, this was why outbreaks occurred particularly in long term care and retirement homes.  Sufficient precautions, such as PPE, were not taken by long term care residences to protect their staff and their most vulnerable residents from exposure to the virus.

Limiting exposure to potential sources of infection and taking the appropriate precautions just makes common sense.  Unfortunately, there are still people who insist on frequenting such locations without adhering to preventive measures.  The fact that confirmed cases are now rising can be largely contributed to such complacent attitudes.  Maybe when hospitalization numbers overwhelm the health care system and the number of deaths continues to astronomically increase, people will come to realize the consequences of risky attitudes and actions.  Governments will continue to use tracking numbers in order to politically justify restrictions on businesses and services.  However, such measures may be too late for many people.  It appears that the only way to really convince people to act in a safe and healthy manner may be to crack down and issue hefty fines in the case of large private or public gatherings.  Everyone needs to understand that various forms of individual sacrifice are required for the good of their families, communities and society at large.  If one lives in an area where restrictions are slim to nonexistent, I would definitely urge caution about visiting potential COVID-19 hot spots — no matter where the location is.

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Entering Critical Stage In The Battles Against COVID-19

In North America, we have entered a critical stage in the battles against COVID-19 which some are referring to as the “second wave”.  We have only to see what is happening as part of the second wave in Europe.  With an average of more than 100,000 new infections per day over the past week, Europe now accounts for about one-third of new cases reported worldwide.  Countries such as Britain, France, Spain, Germany, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and even Russia have had to reintroduce restrictions on travel among regions and various forms of lockdowns and curfews.  European leaders are now confronting an evident surge in coronavirus cases that is rapidly filling hospital beds.

In U.S. federal elections, the surging rise in coronavirus cases across the country, especially in the Midwest, has taken front and center stage in the campaigns.  The public health crisis could reach new levels of urgency by Inauguration Day.  Recent projections show that, if current trends hold, as many as 400,000 Americans may have died from Covid-19 by then.  Unfortunately, President Trump and his allies continue to downplay the virus, arguing that the country is “turning the corner”.  Trump and Vice-Presdent Pence are holding campaign events with thousands of supporters in attendance, even as cases are increasing rapidly.  In Canada, coronavirus cases have risen in the last month to surpass levels above those seen at the height of COVID-19 last spring.  Provincial governments across the country are reintroducing numerous restrictions on travel between regions and varying degrees of lockdowns.  The Prime Minister has declared that the border with the U.S. will remain closed to non-essential travelers as long as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase in Canada and the U.S.

With governments’ restrictions on businesses and gatherings in the U.S., Canada and in Europe, there are complaints by some as to their impact on the economy and employment.  However, unless people once again take the situation seriously and are no longer complacent after the past summer of fewer restrictions, countries will find it harder to effectively confront the surge in coronavirus cases that is rapidly filling hospital beds and subsequently driving up death tolls.  Health care systems and workers are being stretched to their limits now, although the seasonal flu season has not yet begun in earnest.  More schools will be required to close and more people will be forced to withdraw from their work to provide child care and home schooling. 

Various precautions have to be taken such as: limiting our social activities to our immediate households, wearing masks in public, physically distancing wherever possible, washing our hands frequently, getting the seasonal flu vaccine, traveling only for essential purposes and avoiding contact outside the household with persons having underlying health conditions except when providing an essential service.  Folks: to undertake this sacrifice is not asking too much under the circumstances and will benefit the community at large.  Unless each of us takes such measures, the second wave of this pandemic will only get worse.  As our leaders and public health officials often reiterate, we are all in this together, whether you like it or not!

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Heading Towards Another Nuclear Arms Race?

During the so-called Cold War in the early sixties, the U.S. and former Soviet Union (USSR) had enough nuclear warheads to devastate every major city in both countries and more.  In the late 1960s, it was estimated that the U.S. had more than 30,000 nuclear weapons, and the Soviet Union by some accounts had at least 40,000.  Fortunately, a Cold War-era pact, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, occurred whereby nuclear nations pledged to reduce their arsenals in exchange for non-nuclear nations not pursuing nuclear weapons.  As a result, the U.S. and Russia today each have more than 5,000 nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists — more than enough to still do plenty of death and destruction.  Unfortunately, there is no follow-on agreement between the U.S. and Russia to limit strategic arms.  Instead, one has both countries proceeding to increase their arsenals — this time with even more deadly and sophisticated weapons.

In recent decades, we also have had former non-nuclear nations joining the nuclear arms race.  It started covertly with India in the mid-seventies and Pakistan in the late seventies.  Now we have countries such as North Korea, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia moving to expand their missile capabilities and to develop nuclear weapons.  Then of course there is China which is pursuing a full nuclear triad that can launch nuclear warheads from air, land and sea.  As a recent article in the Washington Post noted, the threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office.  Indeed, one must conclude that we are in a full-blown arms race.  As the article concluded: “… after nearly four years in office, he hasn’t signed any significant new treaties to regulate the world’s most devastating weapons and has populated his administration at times with arms-control skeptics, such as John Bolton, the former national security adviser.”

In addition, the Trump administration’s on-going verbal attacks on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is alienating allies in Europe, at a time when the U.S. needs the full support of NATO in dealing with Russia and Iran.  Trump’s three meetings with Kim Jong Un of North Korea did nothing to slow down that regime’s continued development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclearization.  Obsessed with media coverage, these meetings were all show and had no substance except to legitimize Kim’s regime in the eyes of the world.

The general stance of the Trump administration to stand alone and isolate the U.S. from the broader multilateral issues affecting global issues has done a great disservice to American leadership on the world scene.  With both Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin bragging about the modernization of their respective nuclear arsenals, one can only conclude that we are witnessing another nuclear arms race.  With numerous other nations now having nuclear capabilities, the threat of such weapons being used is increasing every day when no new non-proliferation treaties are in place.  The only way that the world can come to grips with this reality is through meaningful dialogue and multilateral negotiations involving all the affected countries.  No one country can tackle this issue on its own.

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In Canada, the Rich Just Got Richer During the Pandemic – But at What Cost?

Canada’s 20 richest have collectively added $37 billion to their fortunes since March 2020, according to a recent report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.  Meanwhile the unemployment rate in Canada hit an all time high of 13.7 percent in May, with 1.1 million people still out of work.  More than ever, many Canadians are struggling to make ends meet and food banks are doing a booming business across the country.  The report notes that billionaires like Loblaws owner Galen Weston have seen their wealth balloon, while front-line workers stocking shelves and scanning groceries at his stores have continued to risk their health and that of their loved ones by coming into work.

The irony is that three of the largest Canadian grocery chains, Loblaw Cos. Ltd., Sobeys’ parent Empire Co. Ltd. and Metro Inc., each ended their $2-an-hour wage increases on the same day in mid-June.  This shocking action took place despite the fact that the coronavirus pandemic was and is still with us.  Some have called for an investigation by the federal Competition Bureau into what is perceived as “wage fixing” by these corporations.  Unfortunately, unlike in the U.S. where wage fixing and other labour-related schemes are considered per se illegal and don’t require any proof of a negative impact, there is no such legislation governing wage fixing in Canada.  In July, the top executives from Loblaw, Empire and Metro were called to explain their wage cuts in front of a parliamentary committee, but to no avail.  Some parliamentarians are calling for a change to the Competition Act to allow the Bureau to investigate such “wage fixing” schemes.  Hopefully, the current federal government will consider a legislative change.

Governments have often proclaimed that we are all in the fight against COVID-19 together.  However, it would appear that some are in the fight more than others, while some are benefiting obvious expense of restaurants and the service industry.  Anyone who shops for groceries knows that food prices have not declined, if anything they have increased greatly — especially for fresh more from the economic impact of the virus.  Among those benefiting are the big grocers with more consumers isolating at home and depending on obtaining essentials from their outlets, at the produce.  This has made it extremely difficult for families who are relying on temporary government assistance, some of which may disappear very shortly.  Among those families are members who work in grocery stores, only to have their risk compensation shamefully terminated by billionaires.  In light of the ultimate advent of a second wave of COVID-19, one can only hope that these big grocers will reinstate the earlier top-up wage increases.  Seems to be the only right thing to do under the circumstances!  Don’t hold your breath.

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A September That No One Will Ever Forget!

Well, here we are.  We’ve almost survived the summer of COVID-19 and are anxiously awaiting to see that the fall has to offer.  Kids are going back to schools for the most part across the continent.  Parents are as anxious as ever for their safety.  Already, there are signs that troubled waters lie ahead, especially on college campuses.  While the coronavirus outbreaks are relatively under control in Canada, the same cannot be said for the U.S.  Community cases continue to emerge in the mid-west and in California.  Over six million COVID-19 cases have to date been confirmed in the U.S., making it statistically the leading country in the pandemic, ahead of such countries as Brazil and India.

In the meantime, the U.S. is preparing itself for a presidential election which everyday is becoming nastier and nastier.  Donald Trump will keep on tweeting right up to election day and will continue to use scare tactics and conspiracy theories to justify his position.  There is no doubt that this will be the weirdest American election of all time — virtual or not.  As a long-time student of American political history, this should be one for the books — and there are plenty of those already starting to emerge.

As far as the North American economies go, tougher times are expected.  As of mid-August, more than 29 million Americans were receiving some sort of unemployment insurance.  In Canada, although there was a labour market improvement in August, that may not be as robust as headlines suggest.  The fact is that most of the job gains have been due to the return of workers, especially part-timers, who became unemployed during the early stages of the pandemic.  The damage to both economies has been wide and deep.  Economic growth is in negative territory and is not expected to improve substantively for some time, perhaps years.  The two big risks for the recovery remain the uncertainty around back-to-school plans and the onset of colder weather which will also bring in the normal influenza season and potential second waves of COVID-19.

There appear to be two economies in both countries, that of wall street and that of main street.  The average American and Canadian is struggling to pay their bills, make mortgage payments and put food on the table.  The rich on the other hand are just getting wealthier, exacerbating the already established inequalities in society.  A huge question remains as to how long government assistance can continue?   The U.S. debt is set to exceed the size of the economy next year, a first Since World War II.  The federal debt held by the public projected to reach or exceed 100% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).  In Canada, the combined debt level of all governments is poised to surge to an unprecedented $1.9 trillion or 85% of GDP.

The fact of the matter is that the only way that both economies can improve is by first getting COVID-19 outbreaks under control and, as experts note, by flattening the curve related to community spread.  In the meantime, school re-openings will no doubt test the resolve for both parents and politicians alike.

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