FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Oct 21

2024 Predictions For Key Canadian Political And Economic Issues

by bcurry

Predicting the eventual outcome of political and economic matters in any year is pretty difficult, and 2024 has been just as unpredictable in various ways.  Relations with Canada’s biggest trade partner and political ally are about to change as a result of the U.S. elections next month.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that a second Trump presidency would be difficult for the Canadian government, as there are many issues on which he and former president disagree.  However, who would have guessed earlier in the year that President Biden would be forced to drop out of the presidential race in favour of his Vice President, Kamala Harris.  Should the outcome result in a Harris administration, things could certainly be different and hopefully perhaps less antagonistic. 

What is most troubling for the Trudeau minority government is the current state of the economy, particularly as it relates to high inflation.  While inflation has come down from a year ago, Canadians are still faced with continuing high costs associated with housing, food and fuels.  In addition, his government has lost the previous mandated support of the New Democratic Party which assured him of being able to withstand any non-confidence motions in Parliament and the need to call an early election.  However, both the Liberals and NDP cannot afford to have an earlier election at this time, particularly since the opposition Conservatives continue to hold a twenty point lead in the polls.  The Conservatives, knowing that general public opinion is unfavourable to Trudeau, would be more than happy to have a federal election sooner than later due to their expectation to form the next government.  In addition, Trudeau has recently seen several Cabinet ministers resign and will not run in the next election, as well as a revolt in the Liberal caucus seeking to replace him as party leader.  Among Canadians in general, he now faces the lowest approval ratings ever.

While the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next Prime Minister, he isn’t personally liked by most Canadians.  Some have compared him to Donald Trump, but this is somewhat an over exaggeration.  However, he does represent an increase in the presence in Canada of right-wing politics, similar to what has divided Americans politically — nothing out of the ordinary here.  What was hard to predict was the rapid decline in support for Trudeau and the increasing massive support for the Conservatives, whose platform remains much as it was a year ago — alluding to the high cost of living, crime rates and the carbon tax. 

The province of Quebec has itself moved away from past strong support for the federal Liberals and more toward dealing with its own political and economic issues surrounding greater protection of the French language, its lagging fertility rate, immigration targets and financial support for asylum seekers, many from the U.S.   Quebec Premier François Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring.  The current and future position of Quebec voters is difficult to predict.

The rapid growth of ultra-conservative movements in Canada, similar to those in the U.S., has surprised many political experts.  There is no doubt that the economic difficulties experienced by lower-income Canadians has certainly contributed to this outcome, especially as it pertains to the influx of immigrants and their impact on housing costs and social services.  Critics predicted, and rightly so, that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb the projected half a million newcomers in such a short period of time.  The war in the Middle East has also exacerbated the growing level of hate-related incidents against ethnic groups in the country.

What makes predictions next year for Canada even harder will depend on the outcome of the U.S.
elections, and the eventual policy changes that the new American administration will introduce.  One thing is clear is the importance of a more vibrant economy to both countries, despite the fact that inflationary trends appear to be on the decline.  Both countries will shortly have new administrations in power for 2025.

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Jun 12

Is Inflation On The Way Down?

by bcurry

This past week, both the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Canada indicated that the general inflation rate trend is gradually going down.  As a result, the Bank of Canada reduced its central bank rate by a quarter of a point.  However, such an interest rate reduction will not immediately affect mortgage and loan rates offered by the banks and other financial institutions.  Also, for the average American and Canadian, the cost of living is still high as demonstrated by food prices and the costs of homes or rents in urban centers.  These costs do not necessarily have as much to do with inflation as they do with regards to other domestic issues and foreign markets.  For this reason, there is little likelihood that food costs, rents and housing costs will decline in the near future.  There is a general lack of affordable housing across both countries and the impact of climate change is already being felt in the agriculture sector.  We will have to wait to see what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do with respect to the current central bank rate.  With inflation sticking at a level above their 2% target, they’re apparently downgrading their outlook for interest rate cuts.

Politically, this situation does not bear well for the governing parties in both countries.  The economy, and especially inflation and high interest rates, is still the priority concern for most voters.  Remember the old adage: “It’s the economy stupid”.  In light of the coming American elections next November, the possibility of major economic improvements is increasingly unlikely every day.  The same can be said for the Canada’s federal government and its ruling Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau, which could call an election next year. 

In general, the current economy has also particularly hurt younger voters, such as Generation Z and the Millennials.  They have been especially affected by the lack of affordable housing and the continuing difficulties surrounding the cost of living and failure of wages to keep up with rising costs.  Their votes in coming elections will be very important and may very well determine which parties are successful in their bids to govern.

Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada have admitted that maintaining very low interest rates over the last decade has contributed to the current economic dilemma.  For example, it created a major imbalance in how the mortgage markets operate, encouraging many people to overspend and helping to cause incredible rising costs in housing.  In addition, new housing developments could not keep up with the created demand.  As a result of the pandemic, there was also a substantial increase in construction costs due to the resulting scarcity of materials.  It has taken some time for the markets to rebound and for supply chains to catch up to the subsequent demands.

While the markets did well during the pandemic and continue to do well, this primarily benefited the large corporate sector and shareholders, but not average Americans and Canadians.  Many of them suffered wage and job losses during the pandemic, and many have not recuperated those losses after the pandemic.  The pandemic significantly altered our economies and our lives.  The consequences will be around for years to come.  Just look at subsequent changes to our labour markets.

Yes, it would appear that the inflation rate is slowly on the way down.  However, for the existing political parties it may be too little and too late.  For the average person, the damage has already been done, resulting in a great deal of anger, frustration and increasing division in political views.  There is little doubt that both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada will continue to be cautious in how they handle the central bank rates.  Fearing any potential new inflationary pressures on the economy, don’t expect any major changes in the near future.

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Mar 25

Electorate in Both U.S. and Canada Appears to be Very Disgruntled. I Wonder Why?

by bcurry

George H. W. Bush Senior, going into his bid for a second term, was frequently told that it’s all about the economy stupid!  The U.S. economy went into a recession in 1990; the unemployment rate rose from 5.9% in 1989 to a high of 7.8% in mid-1991; and the debt percentage of total gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 39.4% in 1989 to almost 46.8% in 1992.  By the presidential election in1992, many conservative Republicans’ support of Bush had waned for a variety of reasons, including raising taxes and cutting defense spending.  Americans were less concerned with his foreign policy successes (e.g. Persian Gulf War victory over Iraq) than with the nation’s deteriorating economic situation.  Thus, despite having once been a relatively popular president, he lost to Bill Clinton.

Today, the primary issue among voters continues to be the economy, and especially the high rate of inflation and high interest rates affecting people’s mortgages and the cost of loans in general.  Yes, there is low unemployment and more people are employed today than anytime since the pandemic.  However, unfortunately for Joe Biden, the average American is struggling on a daily basis to make ends meet, especially since average wages have not kept up with increasing inflation over the last few years.  Many people and businesses are still recovering from the pandemic, which has created a real sense of insecurity and a general malaise within the population.

Taking all of this into account, and that people are not happen with another Trump vs. Biden election, there is a general mistrust with governance.  The same can be said for in Canada where you have a Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and a party that has been in power for over nine years.  The opposition is continuously harpooning about the high cost of inflation and high interest rates that average Canadians are facing.  There is also a good amount of discord over the government’s intention to raise the national carbon tax this coming April, despite it being only one element of several policies aimed at tackling climate change.  However, right now, climate change has taken a back seat to the economy.  A federal election will very likely be called next year in Canada, and all the government can hope for is that the economy will improve and inflation will come down.

Overall, these are tough times for governing parties.  There appear to be no win-win situations.  Government deficits have been climbing steadily, partly in earlier response to the pandemic, with no end in sight.  Wars overseas in the Ukraine and Middle East are not helping.  Funds are being allocated to support the Ukraine against Russia, Israel’s military and the plight of Palestinian refugees in Gaza.  The situation has placed both the U.S. and Canada in a difficult situation given the evolving humanitarian crisis in both conflicts.  In terms of foreign policy, domestically it is a no-win and highly emotive situation for both governments in terms of supporting one side or the other particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In addition, stability in the energy markets is constantly under threat as a result of the sanctions against Russian oil and natural gas exports and the general unstable situation in the Middle East.  As a result, there has been a measurable direct or indirect impact in the form of rising costs for gas and heating fuel in North America.

There is little doubt that we live uncertain times.  There is also little doubt that voters are concerned with the cost of living and continuing hard economic times.  This bleak outlook does not bode well for President Biden and Prime Minister Trudeau.  The question then becomes whether their political opponents can take advantage of the situation?  I guess time will tell.

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Dec 5

Today’s Younger Generations Are Paying To Support Older Generations

by bcurry

The recent federal fall economic statement once again reminds Canadians that previous governments never worked out how to pay for the healthy retirement of baby boomers.  Studies note that when boomers came of age as young adults, there were seven working-age residents for every retiree.  Now in retirement, boomers want the same or better supports when there are just three workers to pay for every person over age 65. The economic update reports some $150-billion (Can) in new spending on retirees between now and 2028, with possibly many billions more to follow.  These monies will drive up tax payments from younger people for today’s retirees well beyond what those retirees paid toward seniors when they were young.  Needless-to-say, organizations representing the interests of younger workers, such as Generation Squeeze, are not at all happy with the lack of alternative funding in support of younger Canadians.  In addition, all this means that deficits are increasing, and eventually someone will have to pay for the ongoing increases in our debt load.

Yes there are more monies in the budget to lower child-care expenses and to assist in improving the housing market for potential buyers, but both are a somewhat late in happening.  The mood among younger generations isn’t all that great.  They view, and perhaps understandably, that boomers have been given greater advantages when it comes to retirement.  Canadian seniors have access to a reasonably good social security system, much of it provided through public pension plans and a progressive taxation system supporting the elderly.  In addition, Canada has a universal health care system which provides affordable health care for an aging population. 

Younger workers are faced with fewer private pension plans, which unlike the boomers makes up a major part of their retirement income.  While defined pension plans are ubiquitous in the Canadian public sector, in the private sector barely one in five employees is covered according to a 2016 study.  Most past private sector pension plans, where they exist, employ a defined contribution plan.  Increasingly, today’s defined contribution plans require that employees invest their contributions in financial markets and incur the risk as to the value of their individual investments.  Defined benefit plans on the other hand were built up within the employer-provided plan and more-or-less guaranteed an annual pension payment upon retirement as long as the person lives.  Furthermore, investment risks associated with defined benefit plans are shared among employees and employers.

Today, younger workers are also affected by past lower compensation in comparison with the increasing cost of living.  Putting monies aside as part of building up a retirement nest egg has now become more important than ever.  Even if a Canadian retires at 65 — the age an individual is eligible for the Canada Pension Plan — and lives until 90, they will effectively need to live off savings for another 25 years of their life, a prospect for which many are not prepared.  For whatever reason, many younger workers are not in a position to put away a proportion of their income towards future retirement, even though there are government taxation schemes which allow for annual contributions such as the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) which offers equivalent tax credits.  For many workers without employer pension plans, RRSPs often represent the only means of financial planning for retirement.  For lower income groups, even setting aside monies for RRSPs can be difficult if not impossible.

According to Statistics Canada, today the average Canadian will live until age 82, with the number of centenarians — those reaching the age of 100 — continuing to grow.  In 2019, the World Economic Forum suggested that Canadians on average will outlive their retirement savings by more than 10 years.  Over more prosperous years, today’s boomers have been able to build up their wealth, housing being a major part of that wealth.  Their children may in some cases be forced to wait for access to that wealth in order to afford housing or prepare for their eventual retirement.  As a result, they will most likely have to wait for their inheritance for some time to come given the projected longer life span of today’s boomers.  No wonder the younger generation isn’t too happy about their current situation and envy older generations!

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Jun 6

Financial Debt Increasingly a Concern for Canadians and Their Financial Institutions

by bcurry

Remember the sub-prime causing America’s great recession of 2008?  Well, now Canadians are on track to be subjected to a similar scenario in light of the average debt loads that they are experiencing.  The International Monetary Fund warns Canada that it runs the highest risk of mortgage defaults among advanced economies, while other reports show Canadians are increasingly struggling with their total debt.  There is little doubt that Canadians are now at the greatest risk of mortgage defaults.  Many Canadians bought houses in the last decade because of lower than average mortgage interest rates, often as low as 1.5 percent annually.  This despite the fact that in many urban areas the average cost of housing had reached record highs, sometimes increasing by 20 percent annually.  Now, the average mortgage rate in advanced economies, including Canada, has risen to 6.8 percent in late 2022, more than doubling from the start of last year.

Canada’s household debt is the highest in the G7.  A report by credit research firm Equifax Canada indicated that Canadian consumers on average are spending 21.5 percent more each month on credit cards, compared to pre-pandemic levels. It further noted that average monthly spending per credit card holder exceeded $2,200 this quarter, up about $400 compared to the first quarter of 2020.  A significant number of Canadians are also beginning to default on mortgage payments and non-mortgage credit.  A recent Angus Reid survey noted that three in ten Canadians say they are struggling to just get by, with far too many continuing to rely on the use of credit cards to cover their expenses.

Worst yet, the Bank of Canada may have to raise its rates in order to tackle the continuing high inflation rate.   April’s inflation numbers took economists by surprise, ticking up to 4.4 percent from a year ago, instead of the forecasted 4.1 percent, in the first acceleration since June 2022.  Further rate increases will only exacerbate the financial challenges that Canadians are now facing.  In addition, inflation is hitting everyone hard and appears to be on the upturn for a number of necessities, such as food, fuel and housing, including rental accommodation.

While Canada’s financial institutions are in fairly good shape, recent difficulties of major banking institutions in the U.S. have made some Canadians somewhat more nervous.  No one expects a run on the banks, but Canadians are increasingly putting investments into more secure and insured options.  Fear is a deadly thing for the economy.  Hopefully, our major banks will not see an inordinate number of loan defaults and those defaults on mortgages in particular.

Many Canadians were able to increase their savings during the pandemic, and it was expected that post-pandemic spending would eat into those savings.  However, Canadians appear to have gone on a spending spree instead of paying off some of their existing debt.  Now, because of high debt loads and the impact of inflation, they are caught in a financial bind with many struggling just to get by.  Should a recession occur, it would only make the situation worse, especially if unemployment rates rise.  Like a number of analysts suggest, perhaps it’s time to tighten our belts!

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Oct 4

Why The Minimum Wage Is Not A ‘Living Wage’

by bcurry

Going back over four decades, I studied changes across Canada in labour standards legislation, especially as they apply to minimum wages.  The minimum wage is the lowest hourly pay an employer can legally pay an employee whether they work part-time or full-time.  In Canada, minimum wages are primarily the responsibility of each of the ten provinces and three territories.  However, there is a federal minimum wage, which came into force in December 2021, adjusted automatically on April 1 of every year based on the average annual increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  The federal minimum wage applies to workers and interns in federally regulated private sectors, including banks, postal and courier services, and interprovincial air, rail, road, and marine transportation — or roughly 6% of private sector employees in Canada.  The federal rate is currently set at $15.55 per hour.  Provincial and territorial minimum wage rates currently vary from $13.00 per hour in Saskatchewan to $15.50 in Ontario. 

Years after minimum wages were in first introduced in British Columbia and Manitoba in 1918, other jurisdictions followed suit.  Minimum wages are calculated and adjusted differently among the provinces, territories and the federal government.  Rates can be determined and adjusted according to regulations, rates of inflation and social and economic conditions.  In 2013, 61 percent of employees earning minimum wage were between the ages of 15 and 24, especially those working in the services sector (e.g. restaurants and fastfood chains) and the retail sector.  In recent years, there are those who argue that the current minimum wage rates do not reflect what became referred to as a ‘living wage.’  Originally, the formula for minimum wages was thought to be aligned with the average industrial wage rate, usually representing about 60 percent of that rate in Canada.  However, over the years, the determination of annual minimum wage rates became more a political factor based on the policies of the governing parties in power.  As a result, increases in the rates began to vary more extensively among jurisdictions and depended on the particular government in power.  For this reason, minimum wage rates began to lag far behind the rate of inflation and average industrial wage rates.

In today’s economy, many will rightly argue that current minimum wage rates, especially in urban centers, are putting workers in a near poverty situation given the high cost of living in many cities.  Matters have been made worst by the current hyperinflation being experienced across Canada.  As a result, many low-wage workers are required to have more than one job just in order to make ends meet.  Labour advocates say recent minimum wage gains are long overdue.  However, they also now advocate that the long-championed goal of a $15 an hour pay floor across the country no longer goes far enough to address the affordability crisis.  “We’ve been calling for a $15 an hour minimum wage for so many years, but now it’s no longer enough,” said Bea Bruske, president of the national Canadian Labour Congress. “It really needs to be $20 an hour or more when we look at inflation and the cost of food and housing.” 

Business organizations on the other hand continue to use the same old arguments against having a living wage.  These include the argument that higher minimum wages would cause employers to reduce the number of employees and the number of hours worked, potentially leading the hiring of more part-time workers.  A 2014 report from the right-wing Vancouver-based think-tank Fraser Institute concluded that both economic theory and the evidence suggest that living wages, like minimum wages, create distortions in the labour market that have a negative impact on employment.  Left-wing organizations in Canada, including the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and Living Wages for Families continue to campaign for living wages, arguing a higher standard of living will benefit the overall economy. 

Remember what Henry Ford said about higher than normal wages for his automotive assembly line workers in the early 1900’s.  He argued that not only would the high turnover rates for the dull and monotonous work — running at over 300 percent — be reduced, but his workers would eventually buy his Model Ts as many of workers could then afford to buy one for themselves.  In today’s consumer society, one can argue the same is true for many low-income workers if they were to have a living wage.

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Aug 22

Both Canada and the U.S. have something in common: Dismal Economic Outlooks

by bcurry

When I was studying economic theory in college, one phrase kept leaping out at me: “Economics is the dismal science.”  This was partly due to the fact that I could never really be convinced that the discipline of economics was anything but a science.  Instead, I preferred to think of the reality of economics being continuously influenced by political policies and institutional structures, including those in the international sphere.  Control over the world’s economies is much more institutionalized than ever before.  The current economic situation in North America really highlights this perspective, especially given the reaction of bodies such as the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada in dealing with the post-pandemic world.

In Canada, one is coping with the highest levels of inflation since 1995.  The U.S. is seeing the highest levels of inflation since the early 1980s.  On top of which, we’re getting economic data that is fluctuating quite rapidly, so it’s very hard to get a precise read on where the economy is at any point in time.  The additional fear now is that both these monetary bodies are increasing the prime rates in order to tackle this hyperinflation at a time when the economy is attempting to get back on its feet after the disastrous pandemic period — thus the concerns about a potential recession in both countries and around the world.

Now, you don’t have to be an economist to know that something’s wrong.  Filling up your gas tank, buying a home and purchasing groceries just got incredibly more expensive!  Governments blame much of the distress on post-pandemic supply chain problems and global fuel-food shortages due to the Russia-Ukraine war.  On top of which, there are suddenly skilled labour shortages in most countries, leading to increasing wage levels and low unemployment rates.  The current situation has particularly been led by Boomers, many of whom have chosen to retire.  An April paper by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond found that “the pandemic has permanently reduced participation in the economy.”  Due to the lack of and high cost of child care for example, many women are financially unable to return to the labour market.  In order to fill many jobs, countries are having again to look to immigration policies as a possible solution.

Recent blow-out jobs reports may have quieted claims that the U.S. is in a recession, but it did not end the mystery about the state of the economy or resolve questions about where it is headed.  Should a recession evolve in the U.S., past experience would suggest that Canada is not far behind.  Similarly, both federal governments are under the gun to do something about inflation — a major political issue.  However, as most analysts state, the current economic situation is something completely new and unprecedented in light of post-pandemic elements and the current global situation with respect to supply chains, especially in Europe.

Higher interest rates as a result of Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada benchmark interest rate increases to control the hyperinflation will have an immediate impact on lowering economic growth.  Consumers feeling the hit will most likely have to cut back on expenditures, including the purchases of homes due to the subsequent rise in mortgage rates.  Whether or not we are on the brink of a major recession is still up in the air.  There is no sector of the economy that hasn’t been affected during this so-called recovery period. 

However, how about longer-term predictions?  As the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, once said: “In the long-run, we are all dead.”  He further noted that aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy.  Instead, it is influenced by a host of factors —sometimes behaving erratically — affecting production, employment and inflation.  As of today, this definitely appears to be the case.  All any of us can do is hope to survive during the foreseen continuing turmoil within the markets and the economy in general.  In the spirit of economics as a ‘dismal science’, most economists for are not overly optimistic about improved short-term growth. 

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Mar 4

Comparison of Workers’ Wages and Benefits Between the U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

In recent months there has been a lot of discussion about the impact of the pandemic on the labour market in both the U.S. and Canada.  Much of the discussion has now evolved around the issue of hyperinflation in both countries and the resulting worker demands for increased wages.  In addition, there has been a shift in the labour market itself whereby many workers who worked in certain sectors, in particular retail, tourism, services and restaurants, were laid off due to COVID-19 for months on end.  Now that the economies are supposedly reopening in both countries, some of these workers have decided not to return to those sectors, but to seek other more reliable and better paying employment.  Indeed, according to recent stats, there have been record levels of workers switching jobs, a trend that picked up markedly in the second half of 2021.

However, there are still signs that wage raises are stopping fall short of compensating for all of the higher prices.  In some private sectors, unions are now taking advantage of the inequalities and have moved to organize disgruntled workers, offering better wages and benefits.  An example of this is the American United Auto Workers (UAW) that is looking to organize Tesla workers.  Several Starbucks workers have been seeking to organize unions in Buffalo, Boston, Chicago, Seattle, Knoxville, Tallahassee, Florida and the Denver area.  The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers promoted a two-year-long push to unionize thirty Amazon facilities in the U.S.  Generally, such attempts have been unsuccessful.  In Canada, where unionization is easier in the private sector under industrial relations laws, certain unions have been more successful in organizing workers in facilities run by union-resistant companies such as Wal-Mart and Starbucks.

Among the major differences between the two countries is the fact that Canada has a universal health system in place and more labour standards laws offering such benefits as paid sick leave, maternity and adoption leave, paid vacation leave and higher minimum wages.  Canada’s federal unemployment insurance program is national in scope, unlike in the U.S. where states have a lot more leeway to differentiate in their qualifying requirements, amounts and duration of unemployment benefits.  Moreover, the Canadian safety net for the unemployed has been strengthened in recent years, playing an important part in allowing unemployed workers to do lengthier job search, provide additional economic security and keep their job protection guaranteed under the law.

On top of everything, workers are looking at the huge profits made by certain companies during the pandemic, such as Amazon, Wal-Mart, Loblaws Canada, etc., etc.  Many believe, and rightly so, that they have not received their fair share of the record profits in the form of increased wages and benefits.  Instead, they see companies buying back billions of dollars in stock from investors and increasing the dividend rates given to investors by large amounts.  With companies declaring the end of the worst of the pandemic, previous increases in the form of risk pay are also quickly disappearing — this despite the fact that many of the pandemic risks still remain.

Moreover, the pandemic has had a significant impact on the labour markets of both countries.  Employers in both countries are being forced to compete for scarce labour due to the shift in the bargaining capabilities of workers, especially in light of today’s hyperinflation.  Indeed, wage increases are just one of many sweeteners that hungry firms are offering.  Also on the rise are perks like a four-day workweek — offered by some eleven percent of companies surveyed recently by the Payscale data firm —  as well as remote work, flexible schedules, free college tuition and other attractive benefits.

All in all, current hyperinflation will continue to cut into workers’ pay cheques.  The coming months will be difficult ones for both employers and workers.  Both Canada and the U.S. have similar labour markets, suggesting that significant adjustments will have to be made in each country.

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Feb 18

Debate Over Introduction of Emergencies Act to Deal With Trucker Protests in Canada

by bcurry

During the last three weeks Canada has been faced with protests related to a trucker convoy which are against government mandated COVID-related vaccines and public health restrictions.  Although blockades at the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ontario and at the Coutts, Alberta, border crossingwere removed by heavy police operations, the illegal occupation of the country’s capital, Ottawa, had continued.  As a result, the Cabinet of Justin Trudeau’s federal government administration invoked the Emergencies Act.  The federal Act gives the government far reaching powers, allowing the government to freeze financial accounts, press tow truck operators into service and end blockades.  While the Act immediately takes effect, there is a requirement under the Act to table the legislation in Parliament within seven days.  The measures are time-limited to 30 days, but could be extended.  The current invocation is primarily restricted to enforcement at Ottawa’s illegal occupation and at any blockades at U.S.-Canada border points.  In addition, the Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, declared a state of emergency in the province to clear crucial border crossings, with vehicle licence seizures among the tools at its disposal.

Of course, there are those who believe the Emergencies Act is not needed and is an overreach.  The Canadian Civil Liberties Association has launched a suit against the federal government, claiming that its invocation is in violation of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.  In Parliament, some opposition parties such as the Conservative Party and the Bloc Quebecois have stated their opposition to the measure, believing that it is not necessary to resolve the issues.  Meanwhile, the residents and businesses of downtown Ottawa have faced numerous serious problems because of safety concerns, forcing many businesses to be shut down during the three-week old occupation.  As a result, a class action suit against the occupation organizers has now ballooned to a $306-million claim for the disruption to lives and livelihoods from the occupation.

It has to be remembered that the Emergencies Act was created in 1988 as the modern-day replacement to the previous War Measures Act.  The infamous October Crisis refers to a chain of events that took place in Quebec in the fall of 1970 when a terrorist group known as the Front de libération du Québec (FLQ) kidnapped British trade commissioner James Cross and Quebec Minister of Immigration and Minister of Labour Pierre Laporte, who was eventually murdered while in captivity.  The then Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau invoked the War Measures Act, which was the only law available at the time to deal with national emergencies.  This led to the presence of military on Canadian streets to supplement the local police, the suspension of normal civil liberties and the authorization of arrests and detentions without charge.  Hundreds of people were arrested and charged under the Act, mostly in Quebec.  Most historians and jurists believe that that Act’s invocation was definitely an overreach, and something extraordinary that could never occur within the U.S. under its constitution.

This is why the Emergencies Act was written to ensure compliance with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and provides for a number of safeguards to ensure its limited use.  The primary question revolves around just what constitutes a national emergency, and its implementation cannot be compared to what happened during the October Crisis of 1970.  A number of guidelines exist within the Act which has not been used since it was written in 1988.  The week-long closure of the Ambassador Bridge and Coutts, Alberta, border crossing definitely has a lot to do with the government’s decision, since there was a huge economic impact on U.S.-Canadian cross border trade.  Auto manufacturers in particular were forced to close down some manufacturing assembly on both sides of the border due to the negative effects on ‘just-in-time’ components.  Other large businesses also complained of the negative effects on the already stretched supply chains, beyond what were caused by the pandemic. 

There is little doubt that there are some extremist domestic and foreign elements that climbed on board the so-called “Freedom Convoy.”  These known provocateurs are using the truckers’ protest to promote their own agenda.  Time will tell what the eventual impact on ultra-right movements will be after the end of their illegal activities. Hopefully, the Emergencies Act will not become a regular go-to tool for governments in the future.

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Jan 26

Canadian Trucker Protest Over Mandatory Vaccination Between U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

This weekend, in something called the Freedom Convoy 2022, hundreds of semi-trucks will be arriving in Ottawa from cities across Canada in order to protest vaccine mandates.  However, plain and simple, their reaction to the Canadian government’s January 15th imposition of a vaccination requirement for truckers entering Canada appears to be just another protest tied into anti-vaxxers’ movements.  Indeed, the largest national organization representing Canadian truckers, the Canadian Trucking Alliance, has denounced the protest.  The Alliance has already stated that 85 percent of its members have been fully vaccinated, roughly the same as for the Canadian population at large.  It has strongly denounced any protests on public roadways, highways, and bridges and has urged all truckers to get inoculated.  However, the Alliance does not represent the majority of independent truckers who one would suggest are primarily involved in this protest, especially those in the West. 

On the other side of the border, the American administration has also imposed a mandatory vaccine requirement for truckers entering the U.S.  Indeed, it is interesting that Donald Trump Jr. this past Tuesday urged Americans on social media to follow the example of the Canadian trucker convoy’s fight against ‘tyranny’ and should carry out similar protests in the U.S.  Apparently, it is estimated that only half of American truckers have been vaccinated, not a dissimilar portion when compared to the general population in the U.S.  What concerns authorities is that the trucker convoy has become a lightning rod for far-right fringe, particularly those against public health measures and government restrictions in the fight against COVID. 

Despite claims that the vaccine mandates will negatively further exacerbate supply chain problems, in monitoring the volume of trucks crossing the border each day since January 15th, authorities have seen no measurable reduction in the number of trucks to date.  Last week, the Canadian Transport Minister noted that almost 100,000 trucks crossed the border — about the same as usual for this time of year.  Unfortunately, those opposed to vaccine mandates have attempted to frighten Canadians by claiming that there will be food and other materials shortages as a result of the government’s policies.  For the vast majority of Canadians, who support COVID vaccination and such mandates, the real issue is in the fight to control the pandemic’s current wave and reduce its terrible impact on a stressed-out health care system. 

Moreover, studies have shown that vaccine mandates work in increasing vaccination rates.  For example, recent research from Simon Fraser University economists indicated that the mere announcement of vaccine mandates last fall led to an average 66 percent surge in new, first-dose vaccinations in Canadian provinces.  From a constitutional perspective, whether a government can mandate vaccines depends on what exactly a new law says.  Canadians have rights to make decisions about vaccination but these rights are not absolute.  And having rights does not mean there will be no consequences for your decisions, including forms of penalization.  In the case of truckers, the government has done more than enough to promote voluntary vaccination.  Since the federal government imposed an immunization requirement last fall on workers in the air, rail and marine transportation sectors, it deliberately gave truckers more time to get vaccinated.  In consultation with the trucking and retail industries, the government waited for a “critical mass” of truckers to get their shots before making it mandatory.  In taking this approach and given the proven effectiveness of vaccine mandates, there is little doubt that the courts would find that such policies legally pass the taste test.

There is no doubt that Canadians and Americans owe much to these essential workers, but truckers need to vaccinate for their own health reasons and those of their families and friends, just like the rest of us.  While independent truckers in particular tend to reflect a ‘wild west’ mentality, they still have a responsibility to themselves and their communities to continue contributing to beating COVID-19 so that life can get back to normal and the economy can open.  They need to cut down on extreme pronouncements about attacking ‘tyrannical governments’ who supposedly are oppressing their people with public health measures.  Instead, they might gain more public support by avoiding such far-right fringe edicts.

Canada Coronavirus COVID-19 Economy Extremist Groups Labor Force US

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