President Trump has argued that under the Iran nuclear deal signed in 2015, Iran has not “lived up” to the spirit of the deal. This despite the fact that by all accounts — even that of the U.S. — Iran had lived up to its commitments under the agreement. In addition, European leaders have stated that they were not interested in expanding the scope of its implementation. Other countries that are party to the deal — Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran —argued that the agreement was designed to address issues solely related to Iran’s nuclear program, and not other issues that Trump has raised in the past.
Now, Trump is expected to decertify the deal which would kick the matter over to the Republican controlled Congress, which in turn would then have 60 days to determine how to proceed and whether to re-impose sanctions. The only problem is that the majority of Republicans have little appetite to reopen the 2015 deal, backed by the Democrats in Congress. The Republicans want to avoid a crisis and don’t want to kill the agreement which would leave them with the blame both at home and abroad. Once again, the President and Republicans are at loggerheads, with the party split between the so-called hawks and doves.
The situation with Iran is a lot more different than it was ten years ago. After all, it is in Iraq, where fighting the Islamic State (ISIS) has most conspicuously brought the U.S into a tacit alliance with Iran, that a more hostile relationship between Tehran and Washington could prove most consequential. Iranian-backed militias are deeply embedded in the overall Iraqi effort to wrest back territory from the militants, one that is also being aided by the United States. Today, Iran commands the loyalties of tens of thousands in allied militias and proxy armies that are fighting on the front lines in Syria, Iraq and Yemen with armored vehicles, tanks and heavy weapons. Exactly what the Trump administration intends to do about a state of affairs that has already become deeply entrenched is unclear. So pervasive is Iran’s presence across the region that it is hard to see how any U.S. administration could easily roll it back without destabilizing allies, endangering Americans, undermining the war against the ISIS and upsetting the new regional balance.
The Iran nuclear deal is only one part of the foreign policy equation in the Middle East. To date, the deal has succeeded in stabilizing relations with Iran as it pertains to the nuclear weapons issue. Trump will have to spell out a broader strategy for confronting Iran, including its ballistic missile program and alleged support for terror networks in the Middle East. Decertifying and reopening the deal will not help matters, and may even destabilize relations with Iran who has become a major ally in the fight against ISIS. Without a doubt, the President’s move will present Congress with another hot potato and, once again, undermine America’s credibility to uphold its commitments with its allies and partners.
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