Years ago I read a book published in 2006 by Andrew Nikiforuk entitled “Pandemonium”. What is fascinating was that the author clearly and correctly outlined all of the factors which would lead to a future pandemic. So here we are in 2020, which now has what must be the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. He laid out the three primary conditions needed to foster a pandemic. These were: “a just-in-time global economy, unprecedented urban crowding, and unparalleled human mobility.” He noted that reports by several sources, including the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, concluded that a severe pandemic with a 2.5 percent death rate would “shock the economy” and turn the health-care system completely “upside down.”
Indeed, this is exactly what is happening world-wide. In both the U.S. and Canada, the health-care systems were already at full capacity — and even at over-capacity — because of the usual seasonal influenza outbreaks. The almost total shutdown of the Chinese economy has thrown a huge wrench into normal supply chains and seriously lowered China’s growth rate as the second largest economy in the world. The stock markets are tumbling and growing recession speculation is dominating financial news. While China may appear to be slowly recovering from its outbreak because of its draconian measures, the rest of Asia, North America and Europe are now in the process of just starting to come to grips with the resulting economic and health impacts.
What’s most worrisome is the fact that we were so caught off guard by the pandemic’s emergence, despite our earlier experiences with avian flu and SARs. There are already shortages of testing kits, personal protective equipment and ventilators needed by health-care workers to do their jobs. For now, the authorities’ strategy is primarily aimed at simply slowing down the spread of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of businesses, restricting or eliminating travel from other countries, and encouraging “social distancing” by people at large. The hope is that such measures will limit exposure to the virus and allow the health-care system to cope with the more seriously infected patients.
What is particularly disappointing is the daily news coming out of the U.S. There you have an administration that started out by understating the impact of the novel coronavirus and a President who even talked about it as a “hoax”. For a country that is supposed to be an example and leader to the rest of the world, the U.S. has done anything but inspire confidence in its ability to tackle such a formidable foe. The result could be catastrophic for many Americans and for the rest of the world. Simply calling the impact of the outbreak a “national emergency” may unfortunately be too little and too late for many Americans already in dire straits.
FROLITICKS 