I just heard a radio interview with a so-called expert on infectious diseases who proclaimed that he viewed government prevention actions are worse than COVID-19 itself. He suggests that health authorities are being overly cautious and that the extent of lockdowns and restrictions on openings are overkill. His views are especially disconcerting, particularly as they are presented just as the U.S. has surpassed half a million COVID-related deaths. He seemed to imply that the worst is over, even though numerous other experts have expressed serious concerns about a possible third wave due to the disease and its variants. Indeed, it has just been disclosed that a coronavirus variant emerged in California and has surged to become the dominant strain. This California variant not only spreads more readily than its predecessors but also apparently evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection. Not good news!
Yes, there is little doubt that lockdowns of businesses, events and schools hurt a lot of people. However, what is the alternative? How many deaths are we willing to accept as a consequence of remaining open and removing our masks? If one takes the Swedish example where schools and businesses remained open for a substantial period of time following the pandemic’s emergence, there have been many times the number of deaths compared to other Scandinavian countries where more restrictions were quickly introduced. We now know that the Swedish economy did not do any better than other economies who implemented lockdown practices. Swedes became increasingly fearful of going outside and eating in restaurants in light of the high death totals. In addition, there has been no herd immunity until now and Sweden will have to rely on vaccines and continuing precautions to contain the coronavirus, including the variants. Just like the rest of us!
As mass inoculations occur globally, it will take several more months before one can safely say that the pandemic is truly under control. In the meantime, ethically we need to avoid and limit the potential of future COVID-related deaths as much as humanly possible. This may mean that certain societal restrictions, including those on travel, will need to be maintained in the coming months. Yes, vaccines will help. However, the reality is that it will take the remainder of the year to inoculate enough of the global population to eventually create some form of so-called ‘herd immunity’. The science is always trying to catch up to the mutations associated with COVID. Remember as Dr. Anthony Fauci notes: “If viruses don’t replicate, they don’t mutate.” The greater transmissibility of the virus could cause hospitals to become so overwhelmed and healthcare resources to be stretched so thin that more deaths are the result. This is why we need to stop the further spread of variants by getting vaccinated, wearing masks, physically distancing, avoiding travel and limiting exposure to others. It’s a difficult cure, but it is a lot better than the consequences of having more significant outbreaks of the disease in our communities.