FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Heading Towards Another Nuclear Arms Race?

During the so-called Cold War in the early sixties, the U.S. and former Soviet Union (USSR) had enough nuclear warheads to devastate every major city in both countries and more.  In the late 1960s, it was estimated that the U.S. had more than 30,000 nuclear weapons, and the Soviet Union by some accounts had at least 40,000.  Fortunately, a Cold War-era pact, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, occurred whereby nuclear nations pledged to reduce their arsenals in exchange for non-nuclear nations not pursuing nuclear weapons.  As a result, the U.S. and Russia today each have more than 5,000 nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists — more than enough to still do plenty of death and destruction.  Unfortunately, there is no follow-on agreement between the U.S. and Russia to limit strategic arms.  Instead, one has both countries proceeding to increase their arsenals — this time with even more deadly and sophisticated weapons.

In recent decades, we also have had former non-nuclear nations joining the nuclear arms race.  It started covertly with India in the mid-seventies and Pakistan in the late seventies.  Now we have countries such as North Korea, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia moving to expand their missile capabilities and to develop nuclear weapons.  Then of course there is China which is pursuing a full nuclear triad that can launch nuclear warheads from air, land and sea.  As a recent article in the Washington Post noted, the threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office.  Indeed, one must conclude that we are in a full-blown arms race.  As the article concluded: “… after nearly four years in office, he hasn’t signed any significant new treaties to regulate the world’s most devastating weapons and has populated his administration at times with arms-control skeptics, such as John Bolton, the former national security adviser.”

In addition, the Trump administration’s on-going verbal attacks on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is alienating allies in Europe, at a time when the U.S. needs the full support of NATO in dealing with Russia and Iran.  Trump’s three meetings with Kim Jong Un of North Korea did nothing to slow down that regime’s continued development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclearization.  Obsessed with media coverage, these meetings were all show and had no substance except to legitimize Kim’s regime in the eyes of the world.

The general stance of the Trump administration to stand alone and isolate the U.S. from the broader multilateral issues affecting global issues has done a great disservice to American leadership on the world scene.  With both Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin bragging about the modernization of their respective nuclear arsenals, one can only conclude that we are witnessing another nuclear arms race.  With numerous other nations now having nuclear capabilities, the threat of such weapons being used is increasing every day when no new non-proliferation treaties are in place.  The only way that the world can come to grips with this reality is through meaningful dialogue and multilateral negotiations involving all the affected countries.  No one country can tackle this issue on its own.

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Are We Entering Into Another Nuclear Arms Race?

I was in public school when the Cuban Crisis took place in 1962. President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev almost started a nuclear war over the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba and the subsequent American naval blockade of the waters off Cuba to Soviet shipping. Both countries had enough nuclear warheads and intercontinental missiles to wipe each other out several times over.  In school, we were even practicing in the event of a possible nuclear attack.  Scary stuff!

After that, level heads thankfully prevailed and the Soviets dismantled and withdrew their missiles from Cuba, and the U.S. quietly did the same in Turkey. Both sides recognized the concept of “mutual nuclear deterrence” which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy’s use of those same weapons. Subsequently, both the U.S. and the Soviets began negotiations to limit and reduce their respective nuclear arsenals. This also led in 1987 to the signing by President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev of  the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The INF was to limit the deployment of all ground-based nuclear weapons with a certain intermediate range, particularly those that allowed the Soviets to hit European targets or NATO forces to hit Soviet targets from locations in Europe.

Unable to reach a new INF agreement with Russia, the Trump White House announced that it’s pulling out of the treaty, only to be followed immediately by Vladimir Putin’s announcement as to Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement and negotiations. Most experts believe that Russia had been wanting out of the treaty for more than a decade, especially given Putin’s aggressive policies in Europe as exemplified by Russia’s military intervention in Eastern Ukraine.  There appears to be little doubt that the Russians have been “cheating” under the INF by developing cruise-missile-style low-flying weapons covered under the Treaty’s intermediate defined ranges. The U.S. now intends to conduct the R&D and work on the systems they haven’t been able to use because of American compliance with the treaty.

With the lost of such arms-related treaties, the world may very well be entering another arms race compared to that during the Cold War. Do we really need this situation at a time when global peace initiatives have been threatened in numerous ways?  It will also allow other countries, like China and North Korea, to further justify the continuation their arms development. Let’s just hope that we are not heading for the brink of another crisis like that which happened over five decades ago.

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