Just learned from a release by the Associated Press that President Trump has dumped Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. Wow! It’s getting hard to know who is in his Cabinet without a numbered sweater. What’s even more interesting is that Tillerson’s dismissal comes following Trump’s announcement that he plans to meet with the “little rocket man” — Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s Dictator. Just by sitting down with the President, Kim Jong Un will get what he craves the most: legitimacy. Of course, this sudden move on the part of Trump most likely caught the former Secretary of State off guard. Indeed, the entire State Department and foreign service were probably excluded from the decision-making process. Instead, it appears that the South Korean administration is driving the agenda. That leaves the Trump administration with few people with experience in dealing with North Korea, while those in the North Korean Foreign Ministry have been working on little else.
No one really knows Kim Jong Un all that while. He certainly has studied Donald Trump. In the short-run, sanctions relief is definitely one of his goals. In addition, there is little doubt that the planned May meeting is a ploy on the part of North Korea. Any unlikely peace treaty would require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea and its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea.
Trump is employing a very high-risk strategy which could backfire spectacularly. Kim Jong Un will never agree to so-called “denuclearization” without major unacceptable concessions by the U.S. Any concessions will certainly strengthen his regime’s safety externally while ensuring his continuing internal control over the North Korean people. As one expert on North Korea noted: “Kim wants to portray himself as the bold leader of a normal, peace-loving nuclear power who can meet an American president as equals.” For Kim, the associated propaganda will greatly benefit him on the home front where the current sanctions have had a detrimental impact on the day-to-day lives of North Koreans. Expect more displays of affection for the regime.
The real danger here is that Trump may be all too willing to concede on a number of important policy matters in order to claim some sort of diplomatic triumph. Donald Trump may perceive himself as a “great negotiator”, but he is no match for the North Koreans. I suspect that Rex Tillerson recognized this, warned Trump, and subsequently left following his voiced objections. This is an all too familiar occurrence within Trump’s administration, and can only lead to greater White House problems and internal dissension.
FROLITICKS 