Today, Statistics Canada’s Centre for Demography released a new set of detailed demographic projections to 2041 on immigration and ethnocultural diversity for Canada and its regions. The release notes that these new projections reflect the targets of the 2022–2024 Immigration Levels Plan released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada in February 2022, as well as the most recent demographic developments, including those related to the COVID-19 pandemic. What’s really of interest is the projected composition of Canada’s population and where the majority of people will be living.
The projections note that by 2041 Canada’s population will reach 47.7 million, up from 14.4 million in 2016. More importantly, about 25 million of the future population will be immigrants or the children of immigrants born in Canada, accounting for 52.4% of the total population. This compares to 40.0% of the total Canadian population in 2016. The Canadian population in 2041 is projected to include 9.9 million to 13.9 million people born in Asia or Africa, depending on the projection scenario. In 2041, about 2 in 5 Canadians will be part of a racialized group. The concept of “racialized” population is derived directly from the “visible minority group” variable and therefore refers to the persons belonging to a visible minority group. In terms of location in 2041, the vast majority of the immigrant population would continue to live one of Canada’s 36 census metropolitan areas (CMA), with Toronto, Montréal, and Vancouver remaining the three primary areas of residence of immigrants.
Needless-to-say, all of these projections have massive implications for socioeconomic policies among the three levels of government: federal, provincial and municipal. Canada today is recognized as multicultural society, increasingly having to apply a host of policies in the next two decades to deal with ethnocentricity, diversity, education, systemic racism, immigration, employment, etc., etc., to name a few. Different regions and localities will incur diverse impacts, especially when it comes to resettlement and labour markets. It can be expected that many of the racialized population will represent skilled labour and entrepreneurial capabilities. One can expect that there will be a good deal of competition among localities and provinces to attract and accommodate skilled immigrants and entrepreneurs. In addition, we anticipate that our aging population, those 65 and older, will continue to grow, which obviously will have a significant impact on health care resources. A good proportion of the racialized population within the total population is expected to be younger than the population as a whole. Future growth in the Canadian economy will greatly depend on this youth segment of the population, and governments will have to facilitate the addition of foreign labour to the labour market through efficient and effective settlement policies.
In general, both Canadian and American experts have long predicted future increased multicultural elements in both societies. What the Statistics Canada report highlights is the fact that the projected trends, especially for the racialized population, will greatly increase and accelerate in the next couple of decades at a faster rate than previously forecast. In order for both countries to benefit fully from these trends, governments must first recognize the projected population changes and their future impacts. Like everything else, there will be those in society who will oppose such trends, which, unless many things change, appear to be inevitable. The fact is that if we accept these projections, than we must begin now to develop and adjust many of our socioeconomic policies. Not to do so would be somewhat catastrophic and regressive!
FROLITICKS 