FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Economic Impact of Current Decline of Canadian Tourists to U.S.

Few people really understand the importance of tourism on their economy, in particular with respect to employment, revenue and taxes.  The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution of tourism to the U.S. economy went from $2.36 trillion in 2023 to $2.5 trillion in 2024.  In 2024, this represented about 9% of the U.S. economy.  By 2034, the industry estimates that tourism will continue to grow to represent almost a 10th of the country’s total GDP.  Total direct and indirect U.S. employment related to tourism is estimated at more than 20 million people, close to 10% of the labour force.  Many work in the accommodation, food services and travel sectors.  This compares with the manufacturing proportion of the labour force at 7.5% in 2024, representing about 13 million workers.

However, 2025 has so far seen a serious decline in the number of Canadian tourists visiting the U.S., largely due to the political and economic policies of the Trump administration which placed tariffs on a number of Canadian exports.  Let’s also not forget Trump’s assertions that Canada should become the 51RST state which angered a large number of Canadians.  In addition, tourism to the U.S. is already stressed by the continuing high exchange rate versus other currencies, including the Canadian dollar.  This decline is particularly pronounced in specific segments, with Canadian overnight land trips falling by 26%, indicating regional tensions affecting traditional travel corridors.  As a result of bordering with the U.S., there has always been a significant amount of travel between the two countries, most notably within the northern U.S. states which rely most heavily on Canadian tourists.

The World Travel & Tourism Council’s projection of a $12.5 billion loss in international visitor spending represents the most significant challenge facing the sector.  This decline affects not only major metropolitan areas but also rural communities that depend on tourism revenue for economic sustainability.  The most significant drop has been in Canadian visitation which has seen a 20.2 % decline so far this year.  In 2024, Canada had maintained its position as the leading source market with over 20 million visitors.  However, Canadian visitors returning from the U.S. by land plunged 31.9% year-over-year in March 2025, while air arrivals fell 13.5%.  In general, the tourism landscape in America during 2025 presents a complex narrative of recovery and decline. The projected annual loss of $12.5 billion in overall international visitor spending represents more than just statistical data — it reflects a fundamental shift in global travel patterns that directly impacts communities, businesses, and employment across the nation.

In both the U.S. and Canada, tourism is an important expanding sector, representing more employment potential than even in the manufacturing sector.  This fact appears to be something loss on members of the Trump administration, who fail to see the negative impact of their trade relations on this sector.  It’s difficult to say when a turnaround might occur with respect to Canadian tourists, particularly since governments and businesses in Canada are greatly promoting the idea that Canadians should travel and vacation in Canada.  In addition, Canada is currently promoting international visits by persons from other countries to Canada in lieu of visiting the U.S.  Since Canadians were number one in terms of visitors to the U.S. in the past, unfortunately there is little doubt that American tourism businesses are now feeling the direct impact of this decline.  Again and again, our southern neighbours, particularly in border states, have expressed their disappointment.  They have also expressed their understanding as to why more Canadians are holding off on visiting their country, given the current policies of the Trump administration.  All in all, the whole situation is truly regretful given the traditional, friendly and close relationship between the two countries and its peoples.

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Canadians Can Be Mad at the U.S., But Maybe We Had a Lot to Do With the Problem

Yes, Canada has every right to be mad at the Trump administration for reneging on the current trade agreement previously signed by then President Trump, imposing new tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S., and promoting the concept of a 51st state.  However, I can’t help thinking that we had a lot to do with creating the current crisis situation.

Actually years ago, I briefly thought that there might be some merit in Canada becoming part of the U.S. After all, with the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), our economy became even more integrated into that of the U.S.  Take the automotive sector for example, it was and still is the most integrated industry under past and current trade agreements between the two countries.  The so-called Auto Pact has had a longstanding history and basically prevented Canada from developing its own automotive manufacturing sector.  Perhaps it made sense given that Canada’s population is one tenth that of the American population and our market also became flooded with Asian and European cars.  Basically, we are non-competitive.  However, no one objected given the workings of the global economy, which no doubt benefited the pocketbooks of Canadians through access to cheaper goods.

Other Canadian sectors such as lumber, steel, aluminum and minerals all grew primarily due to the access to American markets.  Our reliance on these markets may have made us a little lazy and not overly innovative in some areas, especially as it pertains to other trading blocs.  Internally, intraprovincial trade barriers further exacerbated the lack of industrial growth and weaker productivity within Canada itself.  Professionals and trades people could not move easily between and among provinces due to labour mobility restrictions.  One could also have done a lot more to promote tourism within Canada and to build the required infrastructure for a modern tourism industry.

In more recent years, the modern world came to see the ever increasing need for rare minerals to support the growth of computerized technologies.  Both Canada and the U.S. became overly reliant on China which supplies about 80% of the much needed processed rare minerals used in such areas as electronics.  Canada has long been aware of its large sources of rare minerals, but has done next to nothing in developing processing capabilities. 

As for energy, Canada has major oil and gas reserves.  However, previous Canadian governments have stalled numerous potential projects such as the construction of pipelines to transport oil and natural gas to British Columbia ports for export to Asia and the U.S. west coast.  The expansion of pipelines within Canada has also been negatively affected by intraprovincial disputes over economic benefits, indigenous and environmental issues. 

In terms of our cultural sector, Canada has become a major cheap source for the production of American films and television series.  However, except for the support of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) and various federally subsidies and tax breaks, the growth of Canadian content has been somewhat limited.  Instead, Canada became very dependent on American content as cable and steaming services steadily grew.  Quebec is the exception primarily because of the need to supply French content within the province through Radio Canada and other Quebec sources.  Moreover, we need to do a lot more to support Canadian culture, particularly through the CBC.

Today, I am a proud Canadian and object to Trump’s assertions about a northern 51st state.  I have seen positive social-economic trends in Canadian society.  With what is happening to the apparent attacks by the Trump administration on all aspects of American democracy, I clearly prefer to remain Canadian.  However, I would argue that much of what is happening economically is partly, if not mostly, our own fault.  As Canadians, there is a lot more that we can do to strengthen our nation.  This might indeed be a significant reversal of fortune.  So, stop complaining and let us demonstrate that Canada has a future of opportunities, with or without past ties to the U.S.


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