Canadians are becoming very concerned about what is happening with respect to the upcoming American elections. Many of us, myself included, closely watched the televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump. Clearly this was a defining moment for both presidential candidates, and especially for 81 year old Joe Biden. Almost immediately, one could see that something was not quite right with Biden. Frankly, it was hard to watch and one could only feel a sense of sorrow and dread for his haltering performance. Sorry, something is not quite right in the Whitehouse. All kinds of excuses and denials began to emerge from his immediate family, his Vice-President and several key Democrats. Now, the pressure is apparently on from several top Democrats to reassess Biden’s continuation of his campaign and leadership. However, the President insists that he will continue to run and that he is capable of performing the duties of the most important leader of the Western world.
So where does that leave us? The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and closest ally without doubt. The prospect of another presidency under Donald Trump has major implications for our relationship, especially in the domestic and international settings. Given Trump’s campaign promises, nothing that would result has much benefit when looking at future U.S.-Canada relations. No, this is not an exaggeration! Right now, the Canadian government is closely examining each and every statement released by Trump. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is seriously lagging in Canadian polls, may even use the possibility of a future Trump administration to suggest that he is most qualified to confront Trump on matters of trade and defence. Remember that Canada had to fight tooth and nail to get the Americans to agree to Canada’s new trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA — back in 2018. There are some experts who claim that Canada lost out in agreeing to the USMCA, especially with respect to each country’s monetary and exchange rate policies and their trade in autos. One has to wonder if Trump will push to reopen the USMCA to the detriment of the Canadian economy? More tariffs anyone!
Between now and the November elections, a lot of things can happen. However, time is running out for the Democrats. Like a significant number of American voters, most Canadians believe that President Biden should step aside. Given his latest public appearances and debate performance, there is a lot of concern about the President’s cognitive capabilities. Donald Trump and the Republicans will continue to harp on the President’s general health, using it to increase their polling results. Most observers believe that President Biden’s chances of winning the election are increasingly slim. More importantly, what will the situation mean for the Democrats in congressional and state gubernatorial elections? All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested. Trump may not get the popular vote, but all he needs is a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win the election. At this time, the odds are that he could very well achieve this.
In the still unlikely scenario in which Biden steps down as the nominee, the delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago would suddenly be charged with picking a new nominee. Who that nominee would be is still anyone’s guess. There is little doubt that an intense and hot debate is going on among Democrats behind the scene. The heat keeps mounting every day and President Biden must be feeling it right now. To my knowledge, at no time in the history of United States has such a development occurred between the two major parties! With all the ongoing speculation, mainstream and social media are having a field day. When it comes to the divisive nature of this issue for the Democratic Party, no one can really comprehend where it’s going at this time. I, like many Canadians, hope that the Party can resolve the issue prior to the Convention. Personally, the situation makes it very difficult to support President Biden’s bid for a second term in office. The world is watching, including our adversaries.
FROLITICKS 