FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

2024 Predictions For Key Canadian Political And Economic Issues

Predicting the eventual outcome of political and economic matters in any year is pretty difficult, and 2024 has been just as unpredictable in various ways.  Relations with Canada’s biggest trade partner and political ally are about to change as a result of the U.S. elections next month.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that a second Trump presidency would be difficult for the Canadian government, as there are many issues on which he and former president disagree.  However, who would have guessed earlier in the year that President Biden would be forced to drop out of the presidential race in favour of his Vice President, Kamala Harris.  Should the outcome result in a Harris administration, things could certainly be different and hopefully perhaps less antagonistic. 

What is most troubling for the Trudeau minority government is the current state of the economy, particularly as it relates to high inflation.  While inflation has come down from a year ago, Canadians are still faced with continuing high costs associated with housing, food and fuels.  In addition, his government has lost the previous mandated support of the New Democratic Party which assured him of being able to withstand any non-confidence motions in Parliament and the need to call an early election.  However, both the Liberals and NDP cannot afford to have an earlier election at this time, particularly since the opposition Conservatives continue to hold a twenty point lead in the polls.  The Conservatives, knowing that general public opinion is unfavourable to Trudeau, would be more than happy to have a federal election sooner than later due to their expectation to form the next government.  In addition, Trudeau has recently seen several Cabinet ministers resign and will not run in the next election, as well as a revolt in the Liberal caucus seeking to replace him as party leader.  Among Canadians in general, he now faces the lowest approval ratings ever.

While the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next Prime Minister, he isn’t personally liked by most Canadians.  Some have compared him to Donald Trump, but this is somewhat an over exaggeration.  However, he does represent an increase in the presence in Canada of right-wing politics, similar to what has divided Americans politically — nothing out of the ordinary here.  What was hard to predict was the rapid decline in support for Trudeau and the increasing massive support for the Conservatives, whose platform remains much as it was a year ago — alluding to the high cost of living, crime rates and the carbon tax. 

The province of Quebec has itself moved away from past strong support for the federal Liberals and more toward dealing with its own political and economic issues surrounding greater protection of the French language, its lagging fertility rate, immigration targets and financial support for asylum seekers, many from the U.S.   Quebec Premier François Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring.  The current and future position of Quebec voters is difficult to predict.

The rapid growth of ultra-conservative movements in Canada, similar to those in the U.S., has surprised many political experts.  There is no doubt that the economic difficulties experienced by lower-income Canadians has certainly contributed to this outcome, especially as it pertains to the influx of immigrants and their impact on housing costs and social services.  Critics predicted, and rightly so, that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb the projected half a million newcomers in such a short period of time.  The war in the Middle East has also exacerbated the growing level of hate-related incidents against ethnic groups in the country.

What makes predictions next year for Canada even harder will depend on the outcome of the U.S.
elections, and the eventual policy changes that the new American administration will introduce.  One thing is clear is the importance of a more vibrant economy to both countries, despite the fact that inflationary trends appear to be on the decline.  Both countries will shortly have new administrations in power for 2025.

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Throughout History, People Have Explored the Meaning of Politics

Politics is defined in the Oxford English Dictionary as “the activities associated with the governance of a country or area.”  In the 1800s, Otto von Bismarck, a German leader, was quoted as saying that: “Politics is the art of the possible.”  Other notables have commented on the art of politics, including the Chinese leader Moa Zedong who stipulated that “Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed.”  Abraham Lincoln suggested that “The ballot is stronger than the bullet.”  Emma Goldman, a Russian anarchist in the early 1900s, was quoted as sarcastically saying that if politics could change anything, they would make it illegal.  For those who are new to the so-called discipline of political science, there are plenty of reference materials dealing with the question of politics.  For the grand total of $13.95 on Amazon, one can get a paperback entitled The Art of the Possible: An Everyday Guide to Politics by Edward Keenan and illustrated by Julie McLaughlin, that even 10 to 14 year olds can read and hopefully understand.  For aspiring politicians, there are most likely various versions of “politics for dummies.”

At various times in American and Canadian history, there have been periods where people questioned our system of governance.  Life may have been somewhat simpler when we had theocracies, trusting in the guidance of a higher power, as interpreted by the clergy.  However, with the separation of church and state, one now has to rely almost entirely on the collective wisdom of politicians and their political platforms.  The problem emerges when the people begin to loose faith in the political system and the trust in government is on the decline.  One can safely say that we are now in one such period.  We have to ask ourselves what brings us together and what divides us?  I would have thought that the pandemic would have brought us together in collectively battling this global disease.  Instead, especially in the U.S., the measures brought about by governments to minimize the associated deaths and illnesses, including vaccine mandates, appear to have polarized the population even more.  We remain seriously divided on several of the other major current issues, including climate change, abortion, gun control, capital punishment, to name but a few.

As a democracy, debate is essential to develop policies in order to effectively and efficiently tackle the issues of the day, often seeking middle ground on those issues.  However, for some reason, politics today has become so polarized as to hinder the normal and reasoned discussions that should take place.  Instead, there appears to be a growing wave of anger and dissatisfaction among a segment of the populace, leading to what has become known as “populism” in both the U.S. and Canada.  Donald Trump took advantage of this apparent rage and its accompanying attraction to extremism and reducing the role of government. 

In politics, reasonable debate has to be encouraged.  By reasonable, I mean that opposite sides have to introduce indisputable facts, with clear rationale and no dogma attached.  This continues to be difficult in an era when “expertise” and “science” is increasingly under attack, as clearly shown during the pandemic.  In addition, arguments simply based on religious beliefs should not be used as the sole basis for a position, unless one believes we are living in a theocracy. 

Yes, politics can be the art of the possible when all parties work together in collaboration and with common goals to tackle some of the most important questions of our time.  Simply adhering to one’s party lines is not going to get us anywhere fast.  Simply relying on past political beliefs and jurisprudence is not going to help us achieve what we need to achieve in the Twenty-First Century.  Significant change is needed, but difficult to reach if one continues to arrive at political stalemates.  Yes, I believe that all voices have to be heard as part of any democratic society.  Our rights only extend to that place where they don’t infringe on the rights of others.  This is why we have statutory protections and the rule of law.  The fundamental principles of our political system rely on the people continuously defending our democracies to the fullest extent, not by violence but by the ballot.

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