Over the last decade, a lot has been written about today’s younger generation, most notably the so-called millennials and Gen Zers. As you are aware, millennials are between 28 and 43, and Gen Z generally refers to those ages 12 to 27. Some observers believe that millennials had it bad financially, but Gen Z may have it even worse. Millennials did go through two recessions, including the Great Recession of 2008. Many struggled to get jobs, particularly following the Great Recession, when the nation’s unemployment rate hovered around 10 percent for over a year. Their wages took a massive hit, too. On average, millennials lost about 13 percent of their earnings between 2007 and 2017. Gen Z has gone through the recent pandemic, and came out seeing a totally different labour market, especially for recent college graduates. Both the millennials and Gen Zers have faced tough labour market conditions, making it harder to get good paying jobs, especially among blue-collar workers. Now, they are facing ever increasing debt loads and tough housing costs, making it difficult to purchase that important first home. Indeed, Gen Z is the first generation where recent college grads are more likely to be unemployed than the general population. In addition, both groups left college with significant student loan debts.
Why is this scenario important? First of all, millennials were the largest generation group in the U.S.
in 2023, with an estimated population of 72.7 million. Millennials recently surpassed Baby Boomers as the biggest group, and they will continue to be a major part of the population for many years. Add in Gen Zers, who made up 61.3 million of the American population, these two groups now represent a major, if not the biggest voting block in the U.S. They will play a key role in the upcoming American elections next November, something both the Democrats and Republicans are well aware of.
Can President Biden appeal to the youth vote? Biden and the Democrats have relied heavily on their vote in the past. However, with the current inflationary economy and difficult employment situation, I wouldn’t count on it. Since they may not necessarily favour former President Trump, they may instead simply decide not to vote. Such an outcome would have a major impact on both political parties. Among women in both groups, there may be more hope for the Democrats in light of the Republican stance on abortion, particularly in Republican led states. This has yet to be seen.
Although Trump’s popularity among young adults, aged 18 to 34, plummeted as he tried to overturn the 2020 election, Gallup’s 2023 surveys of U.S. adults indicated that his popularity has rebounded since. Forty-two percent of young adults saw him favourably in October 2020, but that dropped to 28 percent in January 2021. His favorability bounced back to 42 percent by December 2023, especially among young Hispanics and Blacks. Younger voters, under the age of 30, feel worse about the economy than older cohorts. Not surprisingly, in the latest New York Times/Sienna poll, for example, Black voters feel as bad about the economy as their white counterparts and Latino voters feel even worse. Will his recent conviction have an impact?
What is also interesting is the fact that following the January 6, 2021 assault on the Hill, Trump’s popularity took a significant dip among younger voters. However, the improvement in Trump’s favorability now can be partly attributed to the fading memories of January 6 and the tumultuous year that was 2020. As in the case of the last election, social media will once again play a significant role in influencing the views of younger voters more than any other age group. The question becomes whether younger voters will believe everything posted on social media or will also look to main stream media sources for their information?
There is little doubt that bread and butter issues will dominate the electoral scene this year more than any other issue. How millennials and Gen Zers view the economic platforms of both political parties will more than likely determine the final outcome of the election. With so much in common, both parties will have to take major steps to win over their votes.
FROLITICKS 