FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Dec 28

What Does Next Year Have In Store For Canada-U.S. Relations?

by bcurry

Well, if the end of this year is any indication, 2025 is going to be a tough year for Canada-U.S. relations.  Even before he is sworn in as the next president, Donald Trump has alright stirred up a hornets nest with off the cuff statements aimed at Canada.  Firstly, he warns the Canadian government that he intends to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada does not reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S.  Such a move of course could be devastating for Canada, whose economy depends heavily on exports to the U.S.which is its largest trading partner.  However, Trump himself has suggested that the tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada.  Interesting, given the fact that oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance.  Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.  This would greatly impact the province of Alberta which supplies the U.S. with the bulk of crude oil and represents a safe, cheaper and more accessible source for Americans.  Therefore, the impact on the U.S. could mean higher costs for fuels.

Nevertheless, both federal and provincial governments in Canada hit the panic button.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced to meet with the provincial premiers to discuss how to positively react to Trump, especially as it pertains to the issue of border security.  By the way, the issue of border security has a lot more to do with the border between Mexico and the U.S. That southern border has been a far worst scenario when it comes to illegal border crossings and drug smuggling.  The subsequent immediate result was the dinner Trudeau had with Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the Thanksgiving weekend, as well as telephone conversations between members of Trudeau’s cabinet and Thomas D. Homan, Trump’s designated border czar.  Next, was a follow-up by two top Canadian ministers, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc.  They met on December 27th with members of Trump’s circle in Florida about a planned 1.3 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of a package of proposed new border security measures.

Whether the Canadian government’s preemptive moves will satisfy Trump is anyone’s guess?  I would suggest that it won’t and he will continue to pursue the matter as part of trade negotiations with Canada once he is in office.  Meanwhile, Trump is clearly aware that Trudeau’s minority government is now politically in trouble.  There is little doubt that the opposition parties intend to introduce a non-confidence vote possibly by the end of January after parliament re-adjourns after the holidays.  This would then result in an election being called early in the New Year, with a predicted majority win by the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre.  Whether Trudeau will lead the Liberal Party once more is still up in the air given his current unpopularity among the electorate.

This will place a lot of perceived difficulties for Poilievre’s Conservatives on this and other potential issues in the face of President Trump’s administration.  It may mean that the next Canadian government will spend a good deal of its time simply reacting and responding to Trump’s demands.  The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), signed in 2018 during Trump’s first term, is up for review in 2026.  Should a Trump administration take a hard-line stance requesting fewer restrictions on American exports to Canada, it could lead to a trade war with the U.S.  Such an outcome will no doubt further damage our relations, and would lead to higher product costs for consumers in both countries.  Due to our size, Canada has to be an export-import country in order to grow and thrive economically.

What makes the future that much more unclear are the irrational and uninformed outbursts of one Donald Trump.  How the next Canadian government will react to his social media musings will be very interesting?  For Canadians, there is little doubt that these will be trying times.  Stay tuned for more of the Donald Trump saga!

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Dec 18

Why I’m Proud to be Canadian and Not American

by bcurry

Whether in jest or being serious, Donald Trump’s ludicrous assertion that Canada should become the 51rst state is a blatant insult.  He suggested that there are many Canadians who would support the idea.  However, I’m not one!  Instead, I’m quite happy to remain as a Canadian, one whose family immigrated to this country after World War II and made a good life for themselves.  Here’s a few reasons why in a short excerpt.

First, I prefer our parliamentary system of governing over that under the Republic, especially as it pertains to that of electing a president through the antiquated electoral college process.  Even numerous American observers have promoted doing away with the electoral college and simply going with whoever wins the overall popular vote.

Secondly, the manner in which Supreme Court judges are appointed is far more politically influenced than in Canada.  As witnessed in recent years, the Supreme Court’s decisions have unfortunately caused a regression in modern American societal matters, including endorsing the right to bear arms and the overturning of Wade vs Roe.  The latter put a woman’s reproductive rights back a half century or more.  In addition, there is no age limit on the term of Supreme Court judges as is the case in Canada.

Thirdly, Canada, like most industrialized countries in the Western world, has a universal health care system.  Moreover, no one has to mortgage their home in order to pay for their medical expenses.  In the U.S., there is a much more obvious two tier system, one for the rich and the other for the rest of Americans.

Fourthly, Canada does have gun control measures in place.  The possession of guns is not seen as a right, but as a privilege which has strict requirements and does not include handguns except under tight restrictions.  As a result, shootings on a per capita basis involving homicides are very small compared to those in the U.S.  School shootings in Canada are almost unheard of, compared to the U.S. where the nation’s nearly 130,000 schools report gun incidents each year.  In 2020 for example, guns became the leading cause of death among American children under 18.

Fifthly, through its Truth and Reconciliation processes, Canada has formally recognized the injustices perpetrated upon its indigenous population in concrete terms.  In particular, we recognize those injustices involving the history of residential schools, moving to compensate those directly affected and beginning an extensive program of educating and informing Canadians about this terrible period.  Americans are just starting to recognize the tragedies of their indigenous peoples resulting from the use of residential schools as a form of assimilation and the destruction of their culture and languages.

Finally, although some Americans will refer to Canada as a so-called “socialist” state, Canadians have long prided themselves on their entrepreneurial skills and a healthy and thriving market-based economy.  As in the U.S., Canadian governments have long supported the business community and its research and development efforts, particularly as they pertain to new technologies.  Our labour force is as well educated and skilled as any in the world, attracting various forms of direct or indirect foreign investment.  Several thriving Canadian companies, including some of our major banks, are multinational in nature.  For example, over a million Canadians work and live in the U.S., most often because of their sought-after credentials, skills and experience in their respective fields.

Given our smaller size, Canada has to be an exporting nation.  Canada has free trade agreements, not only with the U.S., but also with the European Union, the Americas, and the Pacific Rim
nations in Asia.  Although Canada is considered to be a peaceful nation, Canadians proudly served and died alongside Americans in two World Wars, Korea and more recently Afghanistan.  Canadians are proud to stand up for our democracy and freedoms, much like Americans.  This is why I am more than proud to remain being Canadian.


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Dec 16

Why is There an Increasing Political Attack on the Rights of Transgender Youth?

by bcurry

What is it that drives conservative politicians in the U.S. and Canada to increasingly introduce laws that affect the rights of transgender people, especially youth?  This appears to be part and parcel of a populist agenda.  In the U.S., Republican lawmakers have been introducing a number of bills targeting transgender rights particularly of children and within public schools. The rights of transgender people to participate in school sports, access gender-affirming healthcare and use the bathroom of their choice have come under attack.  In Canada, some conservative provincial governments such as Alberta and New Brunswick have introduced new requirements related to transgender students in schools.  Transgender or non-binary students under 16 must have parental consent to alter their names and pronouns at school and there is also a new requirement that gender-neutral washrooms be private, which have become issues in themselves.

What we must first point out is that the proportion of persons in the population who identify as being transgender is very very small.  Based on current U.S. population size, it is estimated by the PEW Research Centre that 0.6% of those ages 13 and older identify as transgender in the United States, roughly about 1.6 million individuals.  Among adults, 0.5% (over 1.3 million adults) identify as transgender.  Only one in five people who identify as transgender are ages 13-17.  In Canada in May 2021, Statistics Canada noted that only one in 300 people in Canada aged 15 and older identify as being transgender or non-binary.  This means that there were about 60,000 Canadians aged 15 and older living in a private household who were transgender (0.19%) and about 41,000 who were non-binary (0.14%).

However, the transgender issue itself has become a heated one in both countries, especially when it comes to children.  According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, transgender is an umbrella term for people whose gender identity or expression is different from their sex assigned at birth.  Early on, children may exhibit some traits and behaviour more conducive to the opposite sex.  There is a lot of misinformation out there about gender-affirming surgery or gender-affirming hormone use.  Firstly, such health matters are rarely if ever considered before a child reaches puberty.  Initially, parents, recognizing that a young child may exhibit preferences for behaving as a member of the opposite sex, will generally first seek out expert advice from a medical professional to deal what we can all agree would be a personal and private matter.  I would strongly suggest that persons interested in the role of parents at this early stage watch an excellent documentary entitled “Transhood” to better understand the difficult situation that parents face under these circumstances.  As homosexuality was a new social and health issue half a century ago, issues surrounding gender dysphoria have surfaced in similar ways.  Transgender persons face many of the same problems and opposition as homosexuals did, but of a very different kind.  As a result, parents often face a lack of support from their community, governments and even their immediate family, as portrayed in the above documentary over several years during the last decade. 

Children exhibiting transgender traits face numerous external factors such as pressure from family, non-affirming school environments, and increased vulnerability to violence, including assaults.  Transgender adolescents and adults are prone to having mental health issues and to committing suicide in numbers greater than the population at large.  According to a 2022 study by the Williams Institute, a UCLA Law School thinktank, a majority of those surveyed said they were under the age of 18 when they knew their gender was different from the one assigned at birth — some one-third 10 years old or younger.  Trans adults reported day-to-day harassment, including at work or with a healthcare provider.  As per a Washington Post and KFF 2023 study, about 25% of trans adults said they had faced physical assault due to their gender identity, gender expression or sexual orientation.  An estimated six out of 10 have faced verbal harassment.  However, the same study found that 78% of respondents said living as different gender from birth increased satisfaction in life.

The current tragedy of government intervention is overkill in what should be a matter best left to parents, the child and their medical practitioner.  People need to be better informed and educated about gender dysphoria, and which elements are important to consider as to a person’s and family’s mental health and physical health.  With better understanding and appreciation of this delicate issue, governments and communities can then better support their related needs for support, rather than further stigmatizing transgender individuals.

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Dec 7

New Political and Social-Economic Realm of Diversity in America

by bcurry

Back in March of this year, the Biden administration ordered changes to a range of federal surveys to gather more detailed information about the nation’s ethnic and racial makeup.  Why is this important?  For example, most people of Middle Eastern and North African descent reportedly are currently classified as “white” in U.S. census data.  According to the Census Bureau estimates, this represented about 3.5 million people falling into that category.  They represent for example people whose descent is Lebanese, Egyptian, Iranian, Syrian, Iraqi, and Israeli.  Under the new format, people of Middle Eastern and North African descent will have their own category.  Officials of the Office of Management and Budget, which oversaw the review of the current survey questions, said the changes were needed in part to make surveys more accurate.

The reason more accurate surveys are increasingly important is that America is increasing becoming more diverse.  The non-white population has nearly doubled since 1990 to over 40% in 2023, as the proportion of non-Hispanic whites decreased from 75% to 58%.  According to the USAFacts Team, the nation’s non-white population has almost doubled over the past four decades, growing from about 24% of the population in 1990 to over 40% in 2023.  Furthermore, according to the US Census Bureau, the multiracial population is projected to be the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group over the next four decades, followed by the Asian or Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations.  The non-Hispanic white population is expected to continue shrinking.

The above announced changes most likely have the potential to rankle conservatives who believe that the nation’s focus on diversity has already gone too far.  Interestingly, both the Republicans and Democrats during the recent election attempted vigorously to cater to Blacks, Latinos and Hispanics to have their votes which were deemed critical in several states.  This time around, the Trump campaign notably targeted those communities with diverse populations.  In many cases, the non-White populace was just as concerned about the economy and immigration as many of his White supporters.  Something that the Democratic Party failed to fully realize during its campaign — a startling factor given Pamela Harris being a Black candidate.

Now one has to ask is whether Donald Trump will allocate more positions in his cabinet to better reflect the nation’s diversity?  So far, the answer appears to be a resounding “no”.  Specifically selecting people from such bodies as Fox News certainly doesn’t help.  He may have to go outside his comfort zone!  In addition, federal policies will have to better reflect the importance of diverse populations.  Those who broadly support the new survey questions — academics, civil liberties advocates and racial and ethnic interest groups among them — say they would help promote greater fairness in schools, housing, hiring and other aspects of society where census data is used.  I’m not so sure that Trump’s immediate advisory body, made up mainly of rich White men, is going to facilitate appropriately dealing with such issues.

Favouring one group over another will lead to even more division within the country.  Hopefully, the Republicans in Congress will appreciate this matter in their deliberations.  Many marginalized groups are made up of persons from diverse communities, and are affected particularly hard by any reduction in socio-economic benefit programs.  Such policies would no doubt lead to increased hardships for these people.  Cutting such programs in the name of “efficiency” should not be an option in these dire times, accentuated by growing poverty, homelessness and inadequate medical care.  One has to question what Trump means when he proposes to make America great again?  Just who will actually benefit?

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Nov 26

Trump’s Tariff Threats Against Canada and Mexico Will Hurt Americans Equally

by bcurry

Here we go again, Donald Trump’s bargaining concept is getting in the way of economic realities.  Threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican products entering the U.S. is simply nonsense, and most likely in violation of the current U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.  This agreement, by-the-way signed during the former President’s first term, is up for re-negotiation in two years. 

The U.S. is the largest importer of goods in the world, with Mexico, China and Canada its top three suppliers.  Take for example the North American automotive sector which relies on integrative parts and components from both Canada and Mexico, whereby auto plants on both sides of the border and some production lines would most likely screech to a halt.  Not only can higher tariffs cause increased inflation, but they would also cause job losses in all three countries.  The tariffs, if implemented, could dramatically raise prices for consumers on everything from gas to automobiles to agricultural products.

For some reason, President-elect Trump believes that putting economic pressure on Mexico and Canada would force both countries to tighten up their borders against illegal migrants and the influx of drugs like the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl.  Mexico’s efforts to fight drugs — which are manufactured by Mexican cartels using chemicals imported from China — have apparently weakened in the last year.  However, the new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has argued that the flow of drugs is more of a problem of public health and drug consumption in American society, and rightly so.  On the other hand, both Mexico and Canada have an argument when it comes to the influx of weapons smuggled in from the United States, estimated to account for over 90% of arms smuggled into both countries.

Unfortunately, neither Mexico nor Canada like to be bullied into adherence to some needless policies by an American president, past or present.  President Sheinbaum has already declared that the introduction of new tariffs would result in retaliatory measures by Mexico.  The Canadian government is already examining the ramifications of increased tariffs, hoping to open up a further dialogue with the new American administration.  Hoping to avoid a trade war, both countries have indicated that they are willing to engage in talks on the issues at hand. 

What’s obviously a shot across the bow, Trump appears to think that these threats are an effective manoeuvre as part of some form of future negotiating tactics.  However, the resulting consequences will be dire for all parties concerned.  Canada in particular has clamped down on the flow of fentanyl both into and out of the country.  More aggressive attempts have also been made to deal with the influx of weapons from the U.S.  There is little doubt that these are security issues on both sides of the border.  Canada is also concerned about the potential influx of migrants from the U.S. as a result of Trump’s talks about a “massive deportation” program of illegal migrants during his second term.  Northern border security is just as important to Canadians as it is to Americans, and is nowhere close to American concerns over its southern border security.

I believe that the Canadian government will take a more cautious and respectful approach to Trump’s threat than the Mexican government which has warned the U.S. against any blatant attempts to subjugate its sovereignty through such threats.  As noted, Sheinbaum’s bristly response suggests that Trump faces a much different Mexican president than he did in his first term.  As for Canada, time will tell.  In addition, federally there will be an election next year and Trump’s administration will have to face a new Canadian government.  Unfortunately, the entire situation does not look good for the future of all three countries, both economically and politically.

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Nov 21

Angry Young Males Revolt In America

by bcurry

Back in 2013, I read a very interesting book by Michael S. Kimmel entitled: “Angry White Men: American Masculinity at the End of an Era.”  In it, he described an increase in anger in the seismic economic, social and political shifts that have so transformed the American landscape among young white men.  Downward mobility, increased racial and gender equality, and a tenacious clinging to an anachronistic ideology of masculinity left many white men feeling betrayed and bewildered.  “Angry white male” is a term for white men holding conservative or right-wing views. Today, the term is often used when talking about the politics of the U.S. The term mostly refers to a group which emerged in the early 1990s. They reacted to what they thought were injustices created by “affirmative action.”  An angry white male is opposed to anti-discrimination policies (such as affirmative action) that benefit racial minorities and women.  Supporters of Donald Trump are sometimes said to largely include angry white men.  Today, one might add young Black and Hispanic men to their numbers, especially now that affirmative action is no longer in play.

Back in the 1960s, when activists pushed for laws to equalize opportunities for women, girls had been much less likely than boys to graduate from college.  However, a recent study indicated that by 2015, the situation had flipped.  Boys were much less likely than girls to make it through college and reap the premium jobs that came with degrees.  Young men were not just getting lower-paying jobs than young women, they were also more likely to leave the job market altogether.  This left many of them living with their parents and gave them lots of free time to spend on video games and in chat rooms.  One research team looked at national time-use surveys and found that young men between the ages of twenty-one and thirty spent 12 percent less time on paid work in 2015 than they had ten years earlier — a much sharper drop than was seen in any other demographic group. The newly freed-up time was spent largely in front of a computer.  The amount of time that men under thirty dedicated to video games and “recreational computer time” rose to 520 hours a year in 2015, 99 hours more than what it had been ten years earlier; a significantly greater amount of time and a sharper increase than was seen among older men and women of all ages.1

Even when it comes to investing and playing the markets on-line, young men dominate the scene, preferring to gamble in day trading in order to possibly become wealthier as well as clearly attaining a high out of risk-taking.  Normally, these men are between 20 and 30 years old and live at home with a lot of time on their hands.2  This phenomenon was particularly exasperated by the pandemic, which also continued to have negative impacts on men with respect to  the post-pandemic labour market and low wages.

The results of the American elections illustrated a clear statistical divide between more educated males and lesser educated males, with the majority of the prior supporting Kamala Harris and the latter Donald Trump.  In particular, young men in the so-call working and middle classes are unhappy with the way the economy has gone for them.  They are also still angered over what they perceive to be as unfair and unequal treatment when it comes to women, whether real or not.  This placed Harris at a clear disadvantage during the election when Democrats obviously failed to address the issue.  The Republicans used conservative social media effectively to appeal to the grievances of young working, unemployed and underemployed men.  Policies pushed by the Democrats, including reproductive rights and gender-based ones, did not appeal to most young men.

Canada is not immune to the lure of conservative policies which tend to attract young Canadian males to their political thinking, all of which will have a direct impact in the federal election expected to happen next year.  Unless there is a drastic change in the economy and labour market, one can expect a similar backlash against the current Liberal government whose social policies will no doubt be a major target by conservative groups.

1. Richard V. Reeves and Ember Smith: “Boys Left Behind: Education Gender Gaps Across the US” (The Brooking Institution, October 12, 2022)  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/boys-left-behind-education-gender-gaps-across-the-us/.

2. ”The Trolls of Wall Street (How the Outcasts and Insurgents are Hacking the Markets)”: Nathaniel Popper (HarperCollins Publishers, New York, N.Y., 2024) p. 53

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Nov 9

Environment Was Barely Mentioned By Presidential Candidates

by bcurry

Despite being the hottest issue on our planet at this time, issues concerning the environment were barely mentioned by either presidential candidate during the debate or while campaigning.  Indeed, what we heard was a continuous slogan about “drill baby drill” and the need to increase the output of the American oil and gas sector. 

It has just been announced that this was the hottest year on record.  Across the U.S. and Canada, one has had to deal with extreme weather events, including hurricanes off the gulf states, wild fires in California, New Jersey and Alberta, drought across all American states except Alaska and Kentucky, flooding across the North-eastern states, heat wave records this past summer, etc., etc.  This left Americans and Canadians with billions of dollars in damages, especially to communities and their infrastructures. 

Nearly 200 countries will gather next week for the U.N. climate summit, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan.  As usual, reaching a consensus for a deal among so many can be difficult.  29

China produces the most energy from climate-warming fossil fuels and also from renewable energy sources.  China retains the developing country designation in U.N. climate negotiations that began in the 1990s.  As such, it says the United States and other industrialised countries should move first and fastest with climate action.

The world’s second largest emitter and largest historic emitter, the United States, comes to COP
29 following an election that will put Donald Trump back in power in 2025.  Trump’s victory has reduced the chance of a strong deal on a new global finance target, or an agreement to increase the pool of countries that should contribute.  President-Elect Trump has promised to again pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement and has labelled efforts to boost green energy a “scam”.

The most immediate concern will be over how the least developed countries will cope with the impact of recent severe weather patterns associated with climate change, including those in Africa, South and Central America and in Asia.  Moreover, this group’s 45 nations are also highly vulnerable to climate change but have contributed little to it. They are asking for significant funding from developed countries, preferably in the form of grants. They also want more money to flow into the loss and damage fund.  The question of how to deal with potential migrant movements from these countries will also have to be dealt with.

Both Canada and the U.S. are failing to meet their emissions reduction targets set out in 2015.  There is a real danger that both countries will return to supporting the fossil fuel sector in order to meet short-term economic goals.  President-Elect Trump has made it very clear that he wants to see more fracking across the U.S., and federal lands and protected areas will be more open to drilling.  He is particularly non-supportive of renewable energy initiatives and will cut back a number of federal programs and policies in support of that sector.  Canada, and Alberta in particular, will more than likely seek to encourage the U.S. to import more of our oil and gas with new pipeline construction, something denied by previous Democrat administrations.  Even Kamala Harris changed her position on limiting fracking in order to garner the support of states such as Pennsylvania.

All of these developments tend to lessen one’s optimism about finding ways to reduce greenhouse emissions, despite a lot of unsubstantiated rhetoric by industrialized countries.  When Americans were polled and asked which issues were the most important to them in the election, the environment and climate change was way down the list.  They obviously gave more import to the immediate state of the economy, jobs and immigration.  Once again, the issues surrounding climate change will have to take a back seat to such issues, despite growing concerns over its evident impact on our lands, agriculture and the oceans.

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Oct 21

2024 Predictions For Key Canadian Political And Economic Issues

by bcurry

Predicting the eventual outcome of political and economic matters in any year is pretty difficult, and 2024 has been just as unpredictable in various ways.  Relations with Canada’s biggest trade partner and political ally are about to change as a result of the U.S. elections next month.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that a second Trump presidency would be difficult for the Canadian government, as there are many issues on which he and former president disagree.  However, who would have guessed earlier in the year that President Biden would be forced to drop out of the presidential race in favour of his Vice President, Kamala Harris.  Should the outcome result in a Harris administration, things could certainly be different and hopefully perhaps less antagonistic. 

What is most troubling for the Trudeau minority government is the current state of the economy, particularly as it relates to high inflation.  While inflation has come down from a year ago, Canadians are still faced with continuing high costs associated with housing, food and fuels.  In addition, his government has lost the previous mandated support of the New Democratic Party which assured him of being able to withstand any non-confidence motions in Parliament and the need to call an early election.  However, both the Liberals and NDP cannot afford to have an earlier election at this time, particularly since the opposition Conservatives continue to hold a twenty point lead in the polls.  The Conservatives, knowing that general public opinion is unfavourable to Trudeau, would be more than happy to have a federal election sooner than later due to their expectation to form the next government.  In addition, Trudeau has recently seen several Cabinet ministers resign and will not run in the next election, as well as a revolt in the Liberal caucus seeking to replace him as party leader.  Among Canadians in general, he now faces the lowest approval ratings ever.

While the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next Prime Minister, he isn’t personally liked by most Canadians.  Some have compared him to Donald Trump, but this is somewhat an over exaggeration.  However, he does represent an increase in the presence in Canada of right-wing politics, similar to what has divided Americans politically — nothing out of the ordinary here.  What was hard to predict was the rapid decline in support for Trudeau and the increasing massive support for the Conservatives, whose platform remains much as it was a year ago — alluding to the high cost of living, crime rates and the carbon tax. 

The province of Quebec has itself moved away from past strong support for the federal Liberals and more toward dealing with its own political and economic issues surrounding greater protection of the French language, its lagging fertility rate, immigration targets and financial support for asylum seekers, many from the U.S.   Quebec Premier François Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring.  The current and future position of Quebec voters is difficult to predict.

The rapid growth of ultra-conservative movements in Canada, similar to those in the U.S., has surprised many political experts.  There is no doubt that the economic difficulties experienced by lower-income Canadians has certainly contributed to this outcome, especially as it pertains to the influx of immigrants and their impact on housing costs and social services.  Critics predicted, and rightly so, that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb the projected half a million newcomers in such a short period of time.  The war in the Middle East has also exacerbated the growing level of hate-related incidents against ethnic groups in the country.

What makes predictions next year for Canada even harder will depend on the outcome of the U.S.
elections, and the eventual policy changes that the new American administration will introduce.  One thing is clear is the importance of a more vibrant economy to both countries, despite the fact that inflationary trends appear to be on the decline.  Both countries will shortly have new administrations in power for 2025.

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Oct 7

Is a Potential Leader of the Free World Mentally Unstable?

by bcurry

Needless-to-say, most readers would immediately know that I’m talking about Donald Trump, who at 78 is beginning to display certain characteristics associated with senility and cognitive decline.  His recent speeches and social media commentary appear to indicate that he is ever more confused, forgetful, incoherent or disconnected from reality.  I declare this not with any malice against the former president, but with a great deal of concern over his ability to fulfill presidential responsibilities.  It’s also pretty bad when you have his vice-presidential candidate attempting to explain or interpret what Trump meant in his nonsensical remarks. 

There is no longer anything particularly funny about the situation as it stands — despite late night talk show hosts using Trump’s commentary as fodder for comedic purposes.  His campaign has refused to release medical records, instead simply pointing to a one-page letter apparently released in July by his former White House doctor reporting that Mr. Trump was “doing well”, particularly after being grazed by a bullet in an assassination attempt.  I believe that that unfortunate attempt and subsequent second attempt may have indeed affected his outlook and temperament.  Concerns about his age have also heightened now that he is trying to return to office, concerns that were not alleviated by his unfounded debate claim about Haitian immigrants “eating pets” in Springfield, Ohio.  After his debate with Kamala Harris, his poor showing raised a number of vital questions about his cognitive capabilities.

What is also interesting and something that I have noticed in various interviews given by Trump, he has a great deal of difficulty answering specific questions directed to him.  This is not just a political manoeuvre of avoidance of an issue, but also demonstrates on his part the apparent lack of ability to focus.  In his speeches, he rambles on about all kinds of weird things, from talking about sharks, malaria and Hannibal Lecter: none of which makes any sense from an issue and policy point of view.  As well, he’s has had some pretty noticeable moments of obvious confusion.

What does this mean for America’s allies?  Right now, countries such as Canada, the U.K. and France must be wondering what is going on in the American presidential election!  Out of respect for diplomacy and non-interference is another country’s elections, their leaders are not saying anything out loud.  However, in private, these allies are very concerned to say the least as to Trump’s general behaviour, and especially his continuing outbursts, blatant lies and overt conspiracy theories.  With a month left before the final voting in November, other countries must be holding their breath, wondering what will be the eventual outcome in what many have described as the most important election of this century.  Trump’s proposed economic, defence and foreign policy positions are being studied to death with much trepidation.

We live today in volatile world where strong leadership is essential and close cooperation among democratic countries is a must.  This requires forward and sensible policy and decision making on the part of all leaders.  It is time for younger leadership in order to support the many current and future needs of our new century.  We cannot afford to have leaders who are stuck in the past and without the necessary skills to move us forward into the future.  Surely, most citizens today recognize the need to be able to effectively tackle the important issues, everything from foreign wars, new technologies and climate change.  The most immediate danger however is that Donald Trump could become the next president of the United States of America!

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Sep 25

How Will Countries Deal With Rising Issues Surrounding Artificial Intelligence?

by bcurry

More and more reports are surfacing based on how to deal with rising issues with respect to the evolution, if not revolution surrounding artificial intelligence (A.I.).  Alarmed by the power of A.I., Europe, the U.S., Canada and others are trying to respond — but the technology is evolving more rapidly than their policies.  As a result of an international safety summit held in November 2023 in the UK, the Bletchley Declaration was released by 29 countries attending the summit.  The declaration noted that: “Substantial risks may arise from potential intentional misuse or unintended issues of control relating to alignment with human intent.  These issues are in part because those capabilities are not fully understood and are therefore hard to predict.  We are especially concerned by such risks in domains such as cybersecurity and biotechnology, as well as where frontier A.I. systems may amplify risks such as disinformation.”  The summit also noted that the many risks arising from A.I. are inherently international in nature, and so are best addressed through international cooperation.  History suggests that this may be very difficult to achieve.

The examination of issues surrounding A.I. has been ongoing since the turn of this century.  Today, A.I. systems are already deployed across many domains of daily life including housing, employment, transport, education, health, accessibility, and justice.  Their use is likely to rapidly increase.  Everyone agrees that A.I. can have major benefits when employed in many sectors, helping humans to better deal with societal issues including those related to public services such as health and education, food security, in science, clean energy, biodiversity and the climate.

The most discussed A.I. issue is related to the potential loss of employment and displacement of existing jobs and their workers.  A 2016 study from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimateds that 9 percent of jobs would be completely displaced in the next two decades.  The authors noted that many more jobs will be transformed, if not eliminated.  Opposition over the use of A.I. has already surfaced in the entertainment industry, especially in the music and television/film sectors.  Last year, there was a major strike among American writers concerned over the use of A.I. in the industry, and many artists in the music business have also expressed similar concerns.  There apparently are no sectors where A.I. will not have a significant impact.  There are those supporters who argue that the technology simply represents another tool to assist workers in their daily work, and the displacement issues have been overrated and exaggerated.  I tend to disagree.

Governments however believe that, despite many unknowns, further investment in A.I. research and development is needed.  Like many new technologies, the approach will most likely involve incremental government legislation as the continuing use of A.I. unfolds.  This was the approach taken in response to past new technologies, including the arrival of the Internet and its accompanying new telecommunications and laser technologies.  Having personally seen the growth in the use of laser technologies in numerous sectors, I saw the introduction of regulations to address health and safety concerns for example.  Suddenly, laser technologies were employed in the health care sector, construction industry, semiconducting chip manufacturing, consumer electronics, information technology, science, law enforcement,  entertainment, and of course the military.  Fiber-optic communication using lasers is a key technology in modern communications, allowing services such as the Internet.  As the technology evolved, governments and standards associations in the U.S. and Canada introduced occupational health and safety requirements through regulation.  With each new development, regulations and standards were updated incrementally as required to protect those workers and consumers using laser technologies.

The general impression that one gets from reading recent reports on the impact of A.I. is that a similar incremental approach will be required in order to provide for the public’s protection and to deal with emerging issues.  This will be no easy task given the degree to which the private sector is advancing A.I. systems.  The fear is that there will be a lagging effect wherein governments will not be able to keep up with the projected rapid advances in A.I. and its uses.  This particular aspect is definitely the most important overall issue for societies today.

Artificial Intelligence

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