FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Apr 25

In reopening the economy, the labour market will look a whole lot different

by bcurry

As parts of the U.S. and Canada begin to plan for the reopening of their economies, so to speak, one has to expect that longer term changes to the labour market will occur. The shut-downs because of COVID-19 primarily hit certain sectors, especially those in retail, tourism and services comprised mainly of small and medium sized businesses.  As of the beginning of April, more than 7.1 million unique applicants have filed for the $2,000 monthly benefit under the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB). In the U.S. at least 26 million Americans, or 15 percent of the workforce, have applied for unemployment benefits in the past five weeks, effectively erasing all job gains made since the 2008-09 recession. By the end of this month, unemployment rates in both countries will be getting close to double digit figures.

The hardest hit workers are women, part-timers and those in low paying jobs. Many full-time employees have had their hours cut back.  At first, it was the private sector that took the brunt of the job cuts, but now one is seeing similar cuts in the public sector because of the shut-down of various government run services and the loss of tax revenues from both unemployed citizens and closed businesses.  Despite the availability of government financial assistance, both the unemployed and businesses will find it difficult to function as usual even in the event of the reopening of various economic activities.  For many, it may be too late.  Bankruptcies will continue to climb as the closures continue.  In addition, not all sectors will recover at the same rate, or at the same time.

As long as the threat of the coronavirus continues, with some experts predicting continuing waves in the fall, many consumers will be hesitant to frequent restaurants, retail outlets, hair salons, etc., etc. Consumption represents about seventy percent of the gross domestic product.  With many consumers in financial difficulty, they will also be hesitant to begin spending right away.  Then there is the impact of e-commerce on the retail and service sectors.  The use of on-line services by consumers has almost doubled since the outbreak began.  In addition, there has been a change in what we would define as “essential services”.  Suddenly, delivery people and grocery store clerks have been deemed to be essential in order to keep vital services going.  Some have suggested that people joining the essential workforce, because they have been displaced out of their current industries, might choose to remain in those jobs, at least in the near term.

It is anticipated that over the coming year, those manufacturing companies who converted to producing personal protective equipment, sanitizers, ventilators, etc., will continue to do so. There is a lot of uncertainty about COVID-19 and the degree of so-called “herd immunity” that might develop among those who have recovered from the virus.  With no vaccine foreseen in the next year, a return to normal economic activity will have to be cautious with many restrictions remaining in place for businesses and consumers.  The need to protect those who are employed in essential services will continue for months to come.  Moreover, what we might see coming out of this crisis is a very different labour market at least in the short-term.

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Apr 21

The Debate Has Begun About How To Open Up The Country

by bcurry

It’s been over five weeks since Canada and the U.S. began their business, school and other closures and the cancellations of multiple activities, including sporting events, concerts, festivals, etc., etc. By limiting the exposure of citizens to COVID-19 in the community, the authorities had hoped to “flatten the curve” as it pertains to new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and mortality rates.  In Canada, we now have about 37,000 confirmed cases and almost 1,700 deaths. In the U.S., there are over 2,400,000 confirmed cases and over 42,000 deaths to date. In both countries, health authorities note that the peak has yet to be reached, although there appears to be some affected areas that have begun to plateau in their daily numbers.

National governments, states/provinces and cities have begun to plan for the possible phased-in opening up of their economies. However, before doing so, health authorities are warning that adequate testing for the virus must be in place, physical distancing restrictions maintained and on-going health surveillance of those who have had the virus and survived.  Some have suggested that electronic tracing methods should be implemented to alert individuals who may have come into contact with someone who had tested positive for COVID-19.  This of course raises privacy issues for people who could then be remotely tracked by such technologies.

In addition, a phased-in approach would mean that certain types of businesses and activities would be initially reopened because of the low probability of disease spread. The ability of businesses to control their environment and provide for worker and customer protection and safety would be one key ingredient in determining which would open first, although often in a limited manner.  Many variables and conditions would have to be met in order to minimize the danger to both customers and workers.  This will not happen over night and will require careful and thorough planning on the part of the authorities and business operators.

There is little doubt that as the shutdown has had a devastating impact on the economy and individual’s livelihoods. However, one cannot merely reopen everything at once and various priorities have to be met to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 in the population.  Scientists and researchers need more time to assess issues related to peoples’ immunity, potential effective treatments and eventually a possible vaccine.  Simply protesting the current shut-down and risking one’s life will not change the realities of the situation.  If one goes too quickly, one risks exacerbating the health impact of the disease and overloading the health care systems.  How many more deaths are we willing to risk by moving too fast?  In the interim, for the sake of the community and our loved ones, we can all help by staying home and being safe.

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Apr 14

During this pandemic, working from home is no vacation for most workers

by bcurry

While some employers may view remote workers with suspicion during the current COVID-19 pandemic, the fact is that they are doing the best that they can under very difficult conditions. Imagine, working in a home where one has to care for children and possibly sick persons.  If anything, telework has proven to be a blessing for many businesses where it is feasible and practical.  Not only is it ensuring that one’s employees are a lot safer when self-isolating, various aspects of a business can continue with the support of today’s available technologies.  Indeed, various studies have shown that even under normal circumstances, remote workers can actually be more productive.  Nevertheless, there are paranoid managers who envision their remote workers lying on couches and staring at televisions.

What these managers tend to forget is that workers are more than happy to be doing a job and receiving a regular pay cheque under the circumstances. Out of necessity, they also want to keep their jobs and contribute to the business viability of their employers.  In expectation of eventual business recovery the productivity and commitment of remote workers must be supported during these difficult times.  Even if someone doesn’t take care of a child or sick family member, they still need to care for themselves.  Maintaining one’s mental health is even more important during a pandemic than at any other time.  Employers need to understand and appreciate the daily impact on mental health.

Once the pandemic comes slowly to an end, there is little doubt that some businesses may consider altering their work practices to allow for more remote working. Our workplaces and the way we work will change.  Years ago, when I was working remotely, I noticed a certain reluctance by some managers to implementing various forms of telework.  However, I was just as productive and efficient as I would have been working in an office.  Indeed, I never missed a deadline and the organization was more than satisfied with the final product.  Notably, not having to commute to work every day and having fewer workplace distractions — especially useless meetings — saved a lot of time and anguish.

Today’s workforce is a lot more mobile and technologically advanced. One of the things that the pandemic has shown is that we can operate remotely in efficient and effective ways, especially through teleconferencing.  Yes, the important human factor is always there and various means can be developed to facilitate team work and work relationships.  All of this requires trust on the part of business owners and managers.  The ways in which we evaluate job performance will also need to change.  How much time we spend at work will no longer be a major consideration.  It’s real productivity that will matter the most, whether working remotely or at the office!

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Apr 9

Financially, millennials are being particularly hit hard by the current economic downturn

by bcurry

Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) were particularly hit hard by the Great Recession of 2008-9. In their thirties and forties, they were just graduating college at that time and had incurred unprecedented levels of student debt.  With levels of very high unemployment and having to accept lower paying and interim jobs in the gig economy, they also missed out on crucial years of wage growth because of the 2008 downturn.  A decade later, many millennials have built up savings and were preparing to buy a house when COVID-19 hit.  Suddenly, the economy is once again severely hit, unemployment has begun to rise and the predicted recession is expected to last longer and to be as serious as that a decade ago.

A new survey disclosed by the Financial Post indicated that almost three out of five or 57 percent of Canadians have already taken a financial hit from the coronavirus crisis. Younger adults reported feeling the biggest impact, including 67 percent of millennials. In addition, 37 percent of millennials said they have had their hours reduced because of workplace closures, especially in deemed non-essential sectors.  In March, Statistics Canada reported that the jobless rate spiked to 7.8 percent. Most of those Canadians affected by the current downturn said they are concerned about paying their bills, including 78 percent of millennials who represented the largest such affected grouping.  More than half of the people surveyed expected that they would not be able to pay their bills and loans within four weeks.

Millennials, because of their debt burdens and a pricy housing market, had reportedly been slow to dive into home ownership which as we know is a key way to build wealth. As was the case in 2008-9, Boomers ended up staying in the workforce longer than normally expected because of the stock market decline which particularly battered their retirement savings.  As for those in white-collar professions, we once again can expect that millennials will get stymied in career advancement because another recession means Boomers (most now nearing or over 65) won’t retire on schedule.

While all of us must adjust to the realities caused by COVID-19’s impact on the economy and life in general, younger workers will b forced to adjust the most. Despite all of the governments’ financial assistance, there can be no substitute for full-time work and the accompanying earnings, work experience and benefits.  For millennials in particular, the timing of the two crushing events within a decade is especially damaging. Down the road when the economy begins hopefully to recover, both society at large and employers specifically will have to consider the financial and psychological impacts of this recession on millennials.

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Apr 5

It’s Been A Long Time Since We Put So Much Faith in Science!

by bcurry

What does one do when faced with a novel coronavirus? One puts one’s faith in our scientists, researchers and medical professionals.  Firstly, they were the ones through bodies such as the World Health Organization (WHO) who initially alerted us back in December to an outbreak in China of what appeared to be a novel coronavirus. From there, the WHO medical researchers and epidemiologists tracked the virus as it spread to other South Asian countries.  Next, numerous national health organizations like the Centres for Disease Control (CDC) in the U.S. and the Public Health Agency of Canada began their analysis of related data as to how the virus was being spread and its characteristics.

Sometime in February, after the coronavirus hit Italy and Iran, scientists warned our political masters of what appeared to be an emerging global pandemic. Some politicians immediately took their warnings to heart and began to enact various measures, including “social isolation” and travel restrictions to and from so-called “hot spots”.  Other politicians, such as President Trump, downplayed the health dangers involved and were slow to take the advice of the scientists.  Finally, in late March, the epidemiologists had enough data to begin their “modelling” of trends in the contagion and mortality rates.  Such projections are based on what is an inexact science, and they are not really meant to predict the future. However, they do provide a general guide for policy-makers and health-care systems grappling with a growing pandemic.

In this war on COVID-13, the top public health officials and expert scientists are front and center. Administrations greatly rely on them to justify their restrictive measures and administrative policies.  Suddenly, the science has taken a powerful role, unlike in the case of “climate change” where it tends to be either ignored or downplayed.  The next phase will be to ascertain, based on the science and data collected through human testing, when the recovery period from the pandemic will emerge.  Italy is one of the first countries to hopefully reach the start of a plateau in new cases. Here again administrations will depend on the scientists for guidance.  Italian researchers have begun to look at those who have antibodies which prevented serious health impacts or assisted in their recoveries. Using the testing data, although still uncertain, researchers are hopeful that the antibodies may in fact indicate immunity. If such is the case, persons with the antibodies could be allowed to return to their workplaces and normal activities. In New York state, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has already envisioned a potential strategy in which younger people, and people who have antibodies showing they have been cured of the virus, could go back to work.

In the meantime, the invaluable work of scientists to develop effective and safe treatments for COVID-19 is ongoing. Such treatments are most likely still weeks and months from now. In addition, around the globe, researchers are working feverishly on a possible vaccine. Realistically, baring some miracle, a vaccine requiring human trials is a long ways off. In the interim, public officials must continue to implement the precautionary measures needed to limit the impact on our health care systems. They must move immediately to provide front-line workers with the necessary personal protective equipment (PPE) and equipment to cope with the predicted numbers of new cases coming into emergency facilities. Needless-to-say, their safety and health is a priority for them, their families and for all of us.

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Mar 30

Whenever and Wherever It Starts, Economic Turnaround Will Take Time

by bcurry

A recent New York Times article was entitled: “Scary Times for U.S. Companies Spell Boom for Restructuring Advisers.”  Another earlier New York Times article was entitled: Businesses Face a New Coronavirus Threat: Shrinking Access to Credit.” One just has to look around urban centers and rural areas where small and medium businesses have been forced to close to see the economic results.  Hoteliers, retail outlets, cruise lines, restaurants, event sponsors and mortgage lenders are among those suddenly short on cash, with travel and outdoor activity at a standstill and unemployment soaring. Only essential-deemed enterprises and services can remain open on a restricted basis, hardly enough to maintain a society’s economic engine and GDP growth.

A Financial Post article is entitled: “The global oil market is broken, drowning in crude nobody needs.” It goes on to note that the next stage of the oil market’s meltdown will be widespread production shutdowns — and it’s already starting to happen.  As the article also notes, refineries are becoming idle, the pipeline system will soon grind to a halt and storage tanks daily are being filled to the brim. As we know, the global airline industry is grounded, countless businesses and factories are shuttered and billions of people, having been forced to stay home, are no longer driving across the country.

Despite governments pouring aid packages into the economy, personal and corporate bankruptcies are already expected to significantly increase should the pandemic last several more months. We are a consumer-driven economy and consumer consumption is expected to remain low for months to come, especially with the extremely high levels of predicted unemployment and the average family having to struggle just to make ends meet.

We can expect that in the near future things will get worst than better anytime soon. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, now estimates that the pandemic could cause between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the U.S.  As of today in Canada, there are over 3,620 confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases and just over 60 fatalities. Health authorities believe that both countries have yet to reach their pandemic peak, expected in the next few weeks.  Most governments have extended the mandated isolation periods and travel restrictions into and beyond this April.  Not knowing how long exactly that these measures will be in place makes it all the more difficult to make economic predictions.  All we know for sure is that economic growth will most likely be negative for the coming year and the human toll will continue to be great.  All one can do is take care, be safe and self-isolate wherever and whenever possible.  Working together as communities and families, we can all get through this.

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Mar 24

There Are Numerous Signs That People Have Yet to Believe In Seriousness of COVID-19 Outbreaks

by bcurry

The news today is not good in that the COVID-19 outbreaks are continuing to grow exponentially. Yet, a number of activities and behaviours in the U.S. and Canada indicate that many people are not taking this pandemic seriously. For example:

  • A recent survey in Canada about the outbreak indicated that 37 percent of men are either a little or not at all worried about it, compared to 25 percent of women. Only 20 percent of men aged 18 to 29 years old are very worried about the virus.
  • This past weekend, people of all ages could be seen in parks strolling in large groups, sunning on beaches, sipping beverages together, etc., etc. This despite multiple warnings from health authorities to “socially distance” from each other for up to 2 metres apart (6 feet for Americans).
  • Among essential businesses not closing in Ontario are liquor and beer stores. Go figure!
  • Given a multitude of concerns expressed by IOCs around the globe, Japan has finally been forced after much pressure to postpone the summer Olympics until 2021. Meanwhile, the Olympic flame sits idly by in Tokyo.
  • The American President stated publicly that two old anti-malaria medications are being considered as potential treatments for the virus and he considers them “game changer.” This despite the fact that his top infectious diseases advisor says that the evidence is flimsy and may even be dangerous and they are not without serious side effects.
  • Instead of declaring that the outbreak could take months to get under control, President Trump continues to express his policies in terms of weeks, preferring to unrealistically bank on reassessments at the end of March 2020. He appears to be more concerned about the stock markets.
  • A lot of scams are surfacing which rely on taking advantage of the fears of people, including some that market themselves as cures or treatments for the coronavirus.
  • Some returnees to Canada and the S. are not going into a 14-day self-isolation period upon their return as per the requirements of each national government.
  • The Canadian Prime Minister, himself in self-imposed isolation, has had to once again strongly reiterate to Canadians that, unless absolutely essential, they should “go home, and stay home.”

These are just a few of the examples of how people and governments are responding to the COVID-19 emergency. I hope that we can do much better in the coming weeks and months!  For the time being, like a lot of citizens, I am now practicing “social distancing” from home while greatly appreciating the work of those who are essential workers caring for us, our loved ones and our neighbours.

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Mar 23

Pandemic Has Serious Implications For The Mental Health Of Children

by bcurry

The schools have been shut down indefinitely. In place, where possible, children have been asked to participate in e-learning during these uncertain times.  Recreation facilities, including arenas, pools and playing fields, have been closed.  Many privately-funded extracurricular activities have been suspended.  Children, other than siblings, have been placed into social isolation and are unable to communicate with their friends and relatives except through social media.  Some of their parents have been laid off and/or forced to socially isolate from home.

Nothing of this magnitude and duration has ever happened in recent times, certainly not in my lifetime. While adults have developed certain coping mechanisms, children can still see and hear the resulting stress in our eyes and voices.  What is particularly difficult is the fact that the adults can offer no clear explanations or time lines for this outbreak.  Everyday we are bombarded with ongoing updates and disturbing news about the spread of this apparently unstoppable virus and the reactions of the authorities.  This is enough to cause serious anxiety among adults, never mind the children.

When all is said and done, the real casualties of the pandemic will be the mental health of children. To understand what happened, many children will ultimately require not only counselling, but treatment to deal with the traumatic outcomes of the war on COVID-19.  Interim measures such as social distancing are fine for now, but societies will have to implement longer-term help for their recovery and a return to some semblance of normality.  In the interim, what we as adults must do is to not only protect their physical health, but also take precautions regarding their mental health.  Give them the information that they need about the pandemic and avoid all the misinformation that exists out there.  Try to not candy coat the situation, but try not to overly alarm them.  Clearly, your reassurance and love is what they so terribly need right now and in the near future.  After all, as the old adage goes, the future is in our children.

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Mar 18

The COVID-19 Global Pandemic Was Predictable Given Past Experiences

by bcurry

Years ago I read a book published in 2006 by Andrew Nikiforuk entitled “Pandemonium”. What is fascinating was that the author clearly and correctly outlined all of the factors which would lead to a future pandemic.  So here we are in 2020, which now has what must be the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.  He laid out the three primary conditions needed to foster a pandemic.  These were: “a just-in-time global economy, unprecedented urban crowding, and unparalleled human mobility.”  He noted that reports by several sources, including the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, concluded that a severe pandemic with a 2.5 percent death rate would “shock the economy” and turn the health-care system completely “upside down.”

Indeed, this is exactly what is happening world-wide. In both the U.S. and Canada, the health-care systems were already at full capacity — and even at over-capacity — because of the usual seasonal influenza outbreaks. The almost total shutdown of the Chinese economy has thrown a huge wrench into normal supply chains and seriously lowered China’s growth rate as the second largest economy in the world. The stock markets are tumbling and growing recession speculation is dominating financial news.  While China may appear to be slowly recovering from its outbreak because of its draconian measures, the rest of Asia, North America and Europe are now in the process of just starting to come to grips with the resulting economic and health impacts.

What’s most worrisome is the fact that we were so caught off guard by the pandemic’s emergence, despite our earlier experiences with avian flu and SARs. There are already shortages of testing kits, personal protective equipment and ventilators needed by health-care workers to do their jobs.  For now, the authorities’ strategy is primarily aimed at simply slowing down the spread of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of businesses, restricting or eliminating travel from other countries, and encouraging “social distancing” by people at large.  The hope is that such measures will limit exposure to the virus and allow the health-care system to cope with the more seriously infected patients.

What is particularly disappointing is the daily news coming out of the U.S.  There you have an administration that started out by understating the impact of the novel coronavirus and a President who even talked about it as a “hoax”.  For a country that is supposed to be an example and leader to the rest of the world, the U.S. has done anything but inspire confidence in its ability to tackle such a formidable foe. The result could be catastrophic for many Americans and for the rest of the world.  Simply calling the impact of the outbreak a “national emergency” may unfortunately be too little and too late for many Americans already in dire straits.

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Mar 14

From SARS to COVID-19, What Have We Learned?

by bcurry

Having lived through the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the early 2000s, I can safely say that we have learned about a good number of notable and useful factors which led to the current coronavirus global pandemic called COVID-19. Scientists had learned a great deal from the epidemic of SARS that began in November 2002 and ended in June 2003. Health researchers and authorities eventually came up with very sensitive diagnostic tests and new treatments to fight any further SARS outbreak, and the knowledge gained helped them find and treat previously undiagnosed human diseases caused by other coronaviruses.

We also learned that such viruses can quickly be transmitted across the globe because of international travel and trade. Our ability to cope with the impact of new viruses in our health care systems will be even more challenged by COVID-19 than was the case with SARS.  The fact that the new virus is so easily transmitted, makes its containment even more difficult.  For this reason, makeshift hospitals and quarantine centres will be needed to shore up a health system that has virtually no give. The most vulnerable, seniors and those with underlying health issues, will have to be particularly protected.  This time, a much broader community approach will have to taken in comparison to SARS which primarily hit frontline hospital and emergency services staff in North America. People are being asked to “socially distance” themselves and to self-isolate in the event that they become symptomatic or have been exposed to the virus.  Numerous countries, including Canada and the U.S., have enacted international travel restrictions and mass closures of sporting, entertainment, and other major events to limit the potential exposure to the virus. Unlike SARS, the economic impact of such measures will be severe and will lead to a global recession.

Governments are hoping that by closing down much of social and business activity, they will be able to mitigate the impact on the health system and provide more needed time for researchers to develop a vaccine and treatment for COVID-19. However, as we now know, doctors finally beat the deadly SARS, but it did not happen overnight.  Indeed, it took three years from the SARS outbreak for scientists to develop a simple therapy that promised to decrease the extraordinarily high death rate from the disease. At this time, no one really knows how long we will have to continue the shutdown of social and business activities in the battle against COVID-19.  On the ground, there are already greater concerns around supplies of gowns, gloves, masks, oxygen, drugs, ventilators, and laboratory capacity for virus testing than was in the case of SARS.

Since the outbreaks of COVID-19 are much more wide-spread than SARS, a greater national and global approach is required. Mitigation efforts must be more community based involving the cooperation of each and everyone of us.  By implementing social distancing and good hygiene practices, there is a good likelihood that Americans and Canadians can reduce the impact on our health care systems and the overall number of COVID-19 related fatalities.

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