FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

May 9

Reopening of Businesses Brings With It a Shortage of Workers

by bcurry

As immunization of populations against COVID-19 accelerates in the U.S., Canada and the European Union, the lessening of restrictions will allow more and more businesses to reopen, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sectors.  However, in the U.S. and Canada, federal governments had introduced additional unemployment benefits and stimulus checks to provide financial assistance to people who lost their jobs during the pandemic.  Many of the pandemic-related programs are expected to continue to the end of this summer.  However, as more businesses reopen, there will be a demand for workers to return.  The apparent data currently indicates that many workers are reluctant to return to former employment at this time for a number of very valid reasons.  Employers say it is increasingly difficult to attract job seekers to an industry whose future is more or less tied to whims of the coronavirus and the uncertainty of vaccination campaigns. 

The fact of the matter is that there continue to be pockets of COVID outbreaks in both the U.S. and Canada, regardless of increased immunization within the population.  The chances of front-line workers being exposed to the coronavirus remain high with the arrival of more contagious variants.  A good deal of uncertainty still exists.  With the unemployment benefits in place, one cannot blame many workers for being cautious about returning to employment, especially that which involves low-paying jobs.  In addition, women in particular are affected by the lack of affordable and safe daycare for their children.  Remember that in many jurisdictions, schools remain closed and on-line learning, where available, continues to offer a safer option.

Several American states, more so than Canadian provinces, have moved quickly to open up their economies.  However, despite everything, the pandemic is definitely not over.  Indeed, the so-called ‘third wave’ has been worst in terms of hospitalizations, especially among younger Americans and Canadians.  Case loads are still far too high, threatening to overload health care systems.  For this reason, some governments are reluctant to move too quickly in reopening businesses deemed non-essential.  Here in Canada, until a certain proportion of the population is fully immunized, governments actually prefer that many non-essential workers remain at home.  However, in the U.S., some Republican governors have started slashing jobless benefits in their states, hoping that the loss of generous federal aid might force more people to try to return to work.  Other states now require residents to prove they are seeking jobs to continue collecting benefits.

This past week, it was reported that just 266,000 jobs were added in the U.S. which was a disappointment since expectations were high for a hiring surge in April.  It was anticipated that potentially a million Americans would have returned to work.  Regardless of the impact of unemployment benefits on employment hesitancy, the fact is that many front-line workers continue to be concerned about the pandemic in their industries.  For obvious reasons, people don’t want to be bringing home the virus to their families.  Also, A Pew Research Center survey earlier this year found that 66 percent of the unemployed had “seriously considered” changing their field of work, a far greater percentage than during the Great Recession.  People are now more aware of the potential dangers of such outbreaks, and would be more inclined to seek other less hazardous employment.  As reported for example, grocery stores in the U.S. shed over 49,000 workers in April and nursing care facilities lost nearly 20,000 workers.  The same considerations can be found among Canadian workers in these and other sectors.  In addition, more affluent Americans and Canadians are retiring early because their retirement portfolios have surged in the past year and the pandemic may have taught them that life is too short.

In conclusion, what the pandemic has done is force many of the affected unemployed to reassess their future.  Employers will have to also reassess their employment benefits, working conditions and levels of compensation in order to attract and recruit workers.  As a consequence of the pandemic, the eventual result will most likely represent a major change in the operation of labour markets in most industrialized countries, including those in the so-called ‘gig economy’.

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May 7

Big Problems When a Handful of Superstar Cities Thrive and Much of a Country Struggles

by bcurry

If there is one thing that the pandemic has highlighted it is the existing economic disparity between so-called “superstar cities” and the rest of a country.  The pandemic clearly demonstrated that there are significant differences in how communities are capable of tackling outbreaks.  Federal policies in recent decades have arguably reinforced the disparities.  In the U.S., research and development (R&D) expenditures went primarily to California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Virginia and Washington, D.C.  In Canada, the majority of R&D expenditures went to Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec.  Within each state and province there are cities that benefited the most, such as Boston, Los Angeles, Toronto or Vancouver.  In addition, their populations grew while populations in smaller urban and rural areas decreased, particularly as people moved into those centers offering the most employment opportunities and public services.

With the decline in manufacturing in both countries and the rise of the information economy, it was only natural that new businesses, especially in knowledge-based industries, would set up in superstar cities.  After all, they had the needed labour force and infrastructure, including broadband services, educational institutions and R&D facilities.  As populations got bigger, with many higher paying jobs, the tax base increased.  A greater tax base allows these communities to offer their population more attractive social amenities, education opportunities and high-standards of health care.  Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, a shrinking population over decades reduces the tax base, leading to under-investment and deterioration of the physical environment and public services, causing even more jobs and people to go elsewhere.

Even in the superstar cities, the results of the pandemic will alter the nature of people’s work environments, particularly for those who will continue to work from home.  The whole notion of urban densification will change with workers being able to work from more remote locations situated outside of the urban core.  This will have an impact on infrastructure development, including public transportation hubs, schools and health care facilities.  No need to worry, for superstar cities will most likely be in an economic position to accommodate these changes.

At no time in our history has there been such a need for major changes as to how we look at urban development.  These emerging developments, demographic and technological, are occurring at an unbelievably fast pace.  The question will be whether national, state/provincial and local governments can adjust fast enough to meet the challenges?  In one way or another, everyone in the country is going to be affected, positively or negatively.  The pandemic has simply accelerated the need to develop national urban strategies, something which to date has not been done effectively if at all.

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May 3

There is a Catch-22 in Pipeline Issues Between Canada and the U.S.

by bcurry

Following Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president, he took the widely expected step through an executive order of cancelling the cross-border permit for the US$14.4-billion Alberta-to-Texas heavy oil pipeline, the Keystone XL pipeline. The decision marks the third time a U.S. president has blocked the construction of this pipeline.  Next occurred the decision by Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer last November which ordered Calgary-based Enbridge to shut down its nearly 70-year-old Line 5 pipeline by May 12, 2021.  Line 5 carries each day up to 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids across Michigan and under the Great Lakes.  Line 5 is part of Enbridge’s mainland system carrying fuel from Alberta’s oil sands to the Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Canada, especially to refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.  Not surprisingly, President Biden’s and Governor Whitmer’s decisions were applauded by environmentalists and Indigenous groups on both sides of the border.

The difficulty is that Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, and the U.S. is its top customer.  While past incidents have occurred where crude oil leakages in pipelines, including those which are part of Enbridge’s mainland system, the alternative means of transportation via rail and trucking also represents serious safety issues.  This potential danger was clearly demonstrated in the fiery derailment in July 2013 in Lac-Megantic, Quebec, which killed 47 people and wiped out part of the town.  From an economic point of view, the transport of crude oil and natural gas liquids by pipeline is the most efficient and least costly option.  Realistically, any transition within the U.S. or Canada away from fossil fuels will take time.  While the elimination of fossil fuels makes good environmental sense in light of climate change, there continues to be a dependence on fossil fuels for servicing our industries, running our transportation hubs, producing electricity and heating our homes.  Both countries have to cooperatively work together towards achieving environmental goals without creating bad relations between our governments and citizens.

Back in January, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney asked the Canadian government to push the U.S. government to reimburse the $1.5 billion it stands to lose from the cancellation of Keystone XL and to reimburse TC Energy, the project proponent, for the money it has sunk into the project.  Alberta took an ownership stake in 2020, representing more than $1 billion in taxpayer money to fund the construction of the pipeline.  The Biden administration’s decision to block the Keystone XL pipeline has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a very difficult situation, one which he has raised with the President.  On the one hand he has to support Alberta’s oil and gas industry.  On the other hand the Prime Minister has agreed reduce in Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  This brings Canada in line with the Biden administration recent pledge to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

Critics of the decision to shut down the Line 5 pipeline note that 6,500 good-paying jobs in Sarnia, Ontario, are on the line.  A further 23,500 indirect jobs in that same region could also be impacted, and thousands more across Ontario and Quebec.  Line 5 also feeds into Line 9, which carries oil to refineries in Montreal and Lévis for Quebec’s supply needs.  According to Minister of Natural Resources Seamus O’Regan, Line 5 delivers 66 percent of the crude oil consumed in Quebec.  This means that besides Alberta, the Premiers of Ontario and Quebec are extremely unhappy with the Michigan Governor’s position.  Any decision to move crude oil and natural gas liquids by alternate means is considered less safe, more costly and realistically not viable given the vast quantities that have to be transported.  This is your Catch-22.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. need to work much more closely to resolve all relevant issues pertinent to their respective constituents.  Our continuing good trade and political relationships are in the balance.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Economy Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Keystone XL Oil and Gas Transport of Oil US

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May 1

May Day is here, but where is organized labour?

by bcurry

Today is May 1rst, a day celebrated in many countries as ‘May Day’, including in Canada and less so in the U.S.  It should be noted that May Day is one of the most important holidays in communist countries such as China, North Korea, Cuba and the former Soviet Union countries.  Since the late 19th century, unions and worker groups have celebrated the first day in May as an International Workers’ Day, since referred to as May Day.  In North America, May Day largely grew out of the 19th-century labour movement for worker’s rights and an eight-hour workday in the U.S. and Canada.  In numerous cities, there will be parades, picnics and celebratory gatherings by both unionized and non-unionized workers and families.  However, historically, both the U.S. and Canada chose to celebrate the contribution of workers on an alternative national statutory holiday in September, ‘Labour Day’.  So much for the history lesson.

The fact is that May Day is celebrated much more in Europe where countries have long ago implemented universal health care systems, extensive social welfare nets, labour standards laws and other programs aimed at improving and protecting the livelihoods and health of workers.  This is why European countries did not need to introduce very many new assistance programs during the current pandemic, as their existing programs, including paid sick leave and unemployment benefits, cover most of the labour force.  Europe remains a relative stronghold of social democracy in which higher levels of taxation fund national health care systems as well as programs that automatically help those who lose their jobs.  In this way, European countries generally seek to limit economic volatility.  In addition, unions play a greater role in Europe than in the U.S., often sitting on management boards in countries like Germany, Sweden, the U.K., Austria, France and several others.  Together with a right to elect work councils, this is often called “codetermination” — something rarely seen in the U.S. or Canada.

On the other hand, the American economy has been described as a study of inequality, with risks and rewards stretching to extremes, and failures often capable of precipitating disaster, as unemployment frequently separates people from their health insurance policies.  This has forced the U.S. to be much more dependent on economic growth and emergency relief injections if something goes wrong, as it has under the current pandemic.  The Biden administration is pouring trillions of dollars into supporting American families and communities adversely affected by the pandemic, hoping to stimulate the economy as the U.S. emerges eventually from government-imposed shutdowns.  Increasing economic growth is expected to continue, but there are questions as to just who will benefit from such growth?  Recent studies have indicated that the rich have gotten richer.  Wall Street has thrived versus the evident losses experienced by the Main Street economy, especially small businesses and their workers.

With the decline in private sector unionization in the U.S. and Canada, there are fewer and fewer workers willing to march on this May Day.  The pandemic may have greatly knocked the wind right out of the unions’ sails.  There is also every indication that the pandemic may further reduce the number of good paying blue collar jobs, leaving many workers scrambling to secure employment in lower paying non-unionized jobs.  Alas, it is really difficult to happily celebrate this year’s May Day, or next Labour Day for that matter.

Canada Economy Economy Reopening the Economy Unionization US

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Apr 27

Biden Administration to Study Decline in Union Membership in U.S.

by bcurry

This past week, President Biden announced the formation of a White House task force to promote labor organizing in an attempt to potentially use the power of the federal government to reverse a decades-long decline in American union membership.  Some of this may have been brought on by the recent failed attempt by the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union to organize 6,000 workers at Amazon’s warehouse in Bessemer, Alabama.  Amazon has argued that its management did not threaten or intimidate workers.  However, past evidence has shown that Amazon is more than capable of dissuading its workers from joining a union in its more than 800 warehouses which employ over 500,000 people nation-wide.  While Amazon did not admit to violations of labour laws, the company promised in a settlement with federal regulators to tell workers that it would rigorously obey the rules in the future.  Good luck!

The historical decline in union membership in the U.S. is well documented.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the total number of union members fell by 400,000 in 2012, to 14.3 million, even though the nation’s overall employment rose by 2.4 million.  The percentage of workers in unions fell to 11.3 percent, down from 11.8 percent in 2011.  By 2017, union membership was 14.8 million, representing just 10.7 percent of those workers.  The unionization rate for private-sector workers was only 6.3 percent in 2020, reflecting the net effect of declines in both the number of union members in the private sector and the steep drop in private-sector employment. 

Private sector membership particularly declined sharply in the manufacturing sector largely due to the reality that when organized labour dug in its heels, manufacturing companies never thought twice about shutting a factory and transferring production to another country.  Now, the largest sectors involve service industries and high tech companies which are very difficult to organize, especially among low paying jobs and where turnover is high.  Lifetime job security once offered by unions in the manufacturing sector no longer exists, leaving workers vulnerable to company pressures not to organize.  In some cases, as in high tech, companies offer enough benefits to make the need for unions a thing of the past.  Management-side lawyers argue convincingly that many employers have gotten better over the years at heeding workers’ concerns, making unions less necessary.  William Spriggs, the A.F.L.- C.I.O.’s chief economist, acknowledged that unions were doing poorly in manufacturing, retail and elsewhere in the private sector, which has been adding jobs even as union membership continued a slide that has lasted for decades.

The primary piece of federal legislation governing federal labour rights is the National Labor Relations Act which has been around since 1935.  It was explicitly introduced to encourage collective bargaining, but that the law had never been fully carried out in this regard. The principal federal agency established by the Act, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), has no power to impose monetary penalties against employers who openly obstruct union membership drives.  The NLRB’s enforcement remedies are few and weak, which means its ability to restrain anti-union employers from breaking the law is limited.

The situation in Canada is somewhat the same.  Since Statistics Canada began measuring unionization through household surveys, the overall unionization rate within Canada’s private sector (15.2% in 2014) has been declining for over 30 years.  This was partially offset by high public sector union density (71.3% in 2014).  The growth of the service sectors in both countries is not expected to significantly change labour markets in the near future.  It will be difficult to organize workers in companies such as Amazon and Walmart, and there is little that governments can do.  Regulatory bodies can simply ensure that the rules are being followed, but they cannot force workers to join unions.  While the Biden administration may be able to bring the National Labor Relations Act into the Twenty-First century, the fact is that economic and industrial changes will most likely determine future unionization rates.  Despite the fact that President Biden is a strong supporter of unions, there is only so much that he can do to reverse the existing decline in these rates.  And that’s not much!

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Apr 25

CEOs Continue to be Overpaid Despite Significant Layoffs in Several Sectors

by bcurry

A recent New York Times report notes that Chief Executive Officer (CEO) pay remains stratospheric, even at companies battered by pandemic.  For years now, I have been studying how CEO compensation has steadily been on a ridiculous climb whereby, according to the Economic Policy Institute, CEOs of big American companies now make on average 320 times as much as their typical worker.  The report notes that in 1989, that ratio was 61-1.  From 1978 to 2019, compensation grew 14% for typical workers.  During the same period it rose 1,167% for CEOs.  The same situation holds true in Canada where, for example, between 1995 and 2007 there was a 444% compensation increase for top Canadian CEOs.

Add it all up and it’s clear that executive pay is on the rise once again despite the millions of workers affected by layoffs due to the pandemic.  Executive compensation is again rising at a much higher rate than employee pay, inflation or even corporate performance.  The old justification that they deserve it based on performance doesn’t wash in many cases.  The Times article noted the following companies’ CEO compensation for last year.  Boeing’s CEO, David Calhoun, was rewarded with some $21.1 million in compensation despite Boeing having had a historically bad 2020.  Norwegian Cruise Line barely survived the year, but the pay of Frank Del Rio, its CEO, was doubled to $36.4 million.  Hilton’s CEO Chris Nassetta received compensation worth $55.9 million in 2020 despite nearly a quarter of the corporate staff members being laid off as hotels around the world sat empty and the company lost $720 million.  General Electric’s CEO, Larry Culp, received $73.2 million last year and could collect well over $100 million more, thanks to a recently updated pay plan.  GE is still reeling from years of mismanagement.

The above noted examples are just a few in a continuing saga of CEOs being outlandishly paid for simply being CEOs, despite companies having difficult times as a result of the pandemic.  Firms will argue that much of this ridiculous situation is a result of how the market has evolved over the years regarding competition for so-called top managers.  They pay lip service to the importance of supporting their workers, but still believe that their CEOs deserve more than 300 times the compensation of those very same workers.  In Japan, and throughout much of Asia for that matter, there’s a much more balanced approach.  In 2007, Japanese CEOs were making on average only 10 times to 15 times more than their base level employees.  When their companies don’t do well, Japanese CEOs insist on taking a comparable pay cut unlike most American and Canadian CEOs.

A sad part about this pandemic on the economic front is that it continues to contribute to the growing societal inequalities that have needlessly evolved over the several decades.  To deal with the economic impact of the pandemic and the deficits incurred by governments at all levels, there needs to be an increase in taxes on multi-millionaire CEOs and billionaires, most of whom have evidently benefited from soaring stock markets.  Failure to deal with increasing inequities will result in more societal pain and poverty.

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Apr 23

All of a Sudden, Climate Change is Back in the News

by bcurry

The Biden administration has just announced that it will unveil a more aggressive plan to cut U.S. green house gases (GHG) — probably around 50 percent by the end of the decade, compared with 2005 levels.  Other countries, including Canada, also announced their intentions to cut GHGs by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  In addition, despite diplomatic clashes, the U.S. and China vow to work together on climate change.  However, it is reported meanwhile that carbon dioxide levels spiked to a critical new record, halfway to doubling pre-industrial CO2 levels.  In addition, forecasts by Swiss Re estimate that the effects of climate change can be expected to shave 11 to 14 percent off global economic output by 2050 compared with growth levels without climate change, possibly by as much as $23 trillion.  Poorer countries are expected to suffer the most.  Swiss Re is one of the world’s largest providers of insurance to other insurance companies.  Needless-to-say, among insurance companies, the ultimate impact of climate change on their business is of growing concern.  During the past 40 years, the U.S. alone has experienced almost 300 weather and climate-related disasters that exceeded $1 billion in losses each.  Last year alone, there were 22 such billion-dollar disasters.

While it is great to see that the U.S. and Canada are upping their pledges to combat climate change through huge investments, one can only hope that it’s not too little or too late.  However, the very fact that climate change is back on the agenda in a serious way, despite their obvious recent concentration on the pandemic, is a good thing.  Numerous industry sectors, including the oil and gas industry, have come forward with plans to help curb GHGs.  Government support for green industries will help to promote credible proposals on hydrogen-based and carbon sequestration initiatives.  In recent months, there have been numerous accounts of the automotive sector’s initiatives to increase the number of electric vehicles in the coming years.  Finally, one is beginning to see a change in the thinking of business leaders, recognizing the inevitability of societal demands to tackle climate change in real terms.

Despite being an optimist, I cannot help but continue to be a little sceptical as to how quickly certain industry sectors will move to implement green technologies.  Like the pandemic, climate change requires a global approach to dealing with its impact.  We have seen how difficult it is to really develop international strategies to resolve the pandemic when it seems each and every country is focussing primarily on its own domestic situation.  Unlike the pandemic which hopefully will come under control in the coming year, climate change requires longer-term initiatives and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

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Apr 18

The Scourge of Gun Violence in America is Here to Stay

by bcurry

I recently read that during the first six years of President Obama’s administration, tragically over sixteen thousand children were shot and killed.  In Chicago alone, Obama’s home town, the number of shootings added up to more than one a day.  On April 15th, a gunman killed eight people at a FedEx facility in Indianapolis.  It is the latest in a harrowing string of mass shootings in the U.S.  Last month alone, eight people were fatally shot at massage businesses across the Atlanta area, and 10 died in gunfire at a supermarket in Boulder, Colorado.  President Biden, who has had the flag lowered to half mast three times in his first hundred days in office, has called the situation a “national embarrassment”.  I would add that it is an embarrassment that will not go away for a long time, if ever.

Just take 2020’s final statistics for gun violence.  Gun violence killed nearly 20,000 Americans, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, more than any other year in at least two decades.  An additional 24,000 people died by suicide with a gun.  Gunshot injuries also rose dramatically, to nearly 40,000, over 8,000 more than in 2017.   According to Archive data, nearly 300 children were shot and killed in 2020, a 50% increase over the previous year.  More than 5,100 kids and teens 17 and younger were killed or injured last year — over 1,000 more than any other year since 2014.  However, these are simply statistics.  Unfortunately, each and every one represents a human being who was or is someone’s father, mother, son, daughter, etc., etc.

The U.S. is the only country where there are more guns than people.  Recent surveys find that about 40% of adult Americans own a gun or live with someone who does.  According to 2018 estimates from the Switzerland-based Small Arms Survey, American civilians own 393 million guns, ranking the U.S. number one in firearms per capita.  We’re not just talking about single-shot weapons, but also automatic and semi-automatic handguns and military-style rifles capable of horrendously killing many people in a very short time.   In 2020, people purchased about 23 million guns, a 64% increase over 2019 sales.  Surveys continue to find that a majority of gun owners believe they are safer with a gun in their homes.  And many gun rights activists, supported by a long-standing narrative from the National Rifle Association (NRA), continue to argue that “a good guy with a gun” can save people from gun violence.  But numerous studies have found that self-defensive gun use to prevent or combat violence is rare.  For example, a 2015 Harvard study found that people defended themselves with a gun in less than 1% of 14,000 crimes from 2007 to 2011.

How often have we heard the NRA declare that “guns don’t kill people, people kill people.”  However, it would seem to most rational persons that the ready and widespread availability of guns greatly contributes to these tragedies.  There is no way in getting around the evidence!  The easy access to guns, even by persons with mental health conditions or with a history of violence, contributes to the above outcomes.  Ratified in 1791, the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has been deemed by American courts to protect the right to keep and bear arms.  Aimed to facilitate the formation of militias to defend a young country at the time, this antiquated and perverse notion continues to plague the country.  Recent events and the unquestionable statistics prove it.  Sadly, despite all the prayers, the scourge of gun violence in America is here to stay.

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Apr 15

U.S. Should Take Lead In Global COVID Vaccination For Vulnerable Countries

by bcurry

Having just read a recent report by the American Centre for Strategic and International Affairs, it became clearly evident that the U.S. helping to secure the future of lower- and middle-income countries is simply the right thing to do, on humanitarian, economic, and security grounds.  This means taking a clear lead on helping to provide supplies of COVID vaccines to vulnerable poorer countries in Africa and the Americas.  The facts are that the U.S. has already purchased 1.3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines from six companies, enough to vaccinate 650 million people — nearly twice the U.S. population.  Meanwhile, recent reports say 300 million vaccine doses could be in the U.S. by July of this year, sparking hoarding worries.

The Biden administration is apparently leaning toward keeping the doses it has ordered, and then at some point directing the excess to other nations in either bilateral deals or giving it to Covax.  Covax is an international nonprofit organization backed by the World Health Organization (WHO) that is trying to coordinate equitable distribution of vaccine among vulnerable countries.  The Biden administration has already donated $3.5 billion for the Global Fund in support of the international effort.  The recent passed American Rescue Plan also included a further $11 billion to support the global Covid-19 response, $3 billion for U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), $650 million for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) global Covid-19 response, and $300 million for the Center for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovation (CEPI).  An excellent start to help combat the global pandemic.

However, the Centre for Strategic and International Affairs strongly suggests that the U.S. bring considerable leverage to any global strategy on vaccines.  It is after all the biggest vaccine market and the largest investor in vaccines, with the deepest impact on research and development of new products.  In addition, the Centre’s report suggests that the U.S. should work with multilateral efforts to create fiscal space in lower- and middle-income countries to invest in their health infrastructure, which will be essential for responding to the current crisis as well as making investments in future pandemic preparedness.  It’s one thing to supply vaccines, it’s another to actually deliver and immunize a population affected by difficult regional transportation and few local health care capacities.  These multilateral investments must continue into the future if vulnerable countries are to control future outbreaks and protect the health of their citizens.

We have already seen the foreign policy moves by China and Russia to supply vaccines strategically to vulnerable countries as an additional means of exerting their political and economic influence in the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa.  Western countries, led by the U.S., cannot afford to ignore such vaccine supply initiatives underway in these strategic regions.  Furthermore, millions of lives are at stake given the current increasing spread of COVID variants in these regions.  The global response to this pandemic must be met through an international approach to be successful.  Who else is in a better position to lead this response than the United States?

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Apr 11

Hesitancy About Getting COVID Vaccine Remains A Major Concern

by bcurry

In both the U.S. and Canada there is a hesitancy among a certain portion of the population about getting the COVID vaccine, despite the recent surge in vaccine supplies in recent weeks.  The concern is often due to various forms of vaccine scepticism, sometimes attributed to peoples’ continuing distrust of government or mistrust of the health care system.  In the U.S., this mistrust is particularly evident among African Americans, notably where the health care system has frequently let them down in the past.  Among a significant number of white Republican supporters, including college-educated Republican women under age 49, much of the hesitancy can be attributed to the misinformation that flourishes on social media and the mixed messaging from Republican governors that leave people confused.  A number of heavily Republican states are currently finding themselves with surpluses of vaccine doses, including Oklahoma, Ohio, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas and Alabama. 

Part of the problem is that several of these states have eased their restrictions thereby sending a message opposite to a narrative that promotes the urgency of vaccinations.  With the rise in cases involving so-called variants, such as the U.K. variant which is believed to be about 60 percent more contagious and 67 percent deadlier than the original version of the virus, the U.S. and Canada must take the matter of vaccine scepticism seriously.  Both countries have seen a recent surge in outbreaks despite the arrival of vaccines.  The hesitancy has national implications.  As alluded to on several occasions, experts suggest that between 70 percent to 90 percent of all Americans and Canadians must be vaccinated for a country to reach herd immunity, the point at which the virus can no longer spread through the population.

Fortunately, the issue of vaccine hesitancy may be less of a concern in Canada.  A survey of Canadians in March by the Angus Reid Institute noted that the number of respondents who said they would not get the vaccine at all remained relatively steady at about 12 percent.  Since last fall, Canadians’ hesitancy about COVID-19 vaccine appears to have been dropping, with a good majority (over 80 percent) stating that they would get the vaccine as soon as possible.  Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for many Americans.  For example, according to several recent surveys, nearly half of all Republican men and 40 percent of Republicans overall have said they do not plan to get vaccinated.  This attitude is further reflected in their continuing hesitancy to wear facial masks and to socially distance, something the Trump administration encouraged at the pandemic’s outset.

Since it appears that there are people who mistrust politicians on the matter of COVID vaccination, some public health experts suggest that what’s needed are well-crafted messages delivered by doctors, religious leaders and other figures who are trusted in a particular community.  Unless vaccine hesitancy is reduced significantly, there is a real danger of vaccines sitting on shelves somewhere, and possibly passing their best before dates.  In the fight against the spread of the variants, neither the U.S. nor Canada can afford to have this happen!

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