FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Aug 22

Both Canada and the U.S. have something in common: Dismal Economic Outlooks

by bcurry

When I was studying economic theory in college, one phrase kept leaping out at me: “Economics is the dismal science.”  This was partly due to the fact that I could never really be convinced that the discipline of economics was anything but a science.  Instead, I preferred to think of the reality of economics being continuously influenced by political policies and institutional structures, including those in the international sphere.  Control over the world’s economies is much more institutionalized than ever before.  The current economic situation in North America really highlights this perspective, especially given the reaction of bodies such as the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada in dealing with the post-pandemic world.

In Canada, one is coping with the highest levels of inflation since 1995.  The U.S. is seeing the highest levels of inflation since the early 1980s.  On top of which, we’re getting economic data that is fluctuating quite rapidly, so it’s very hard to get a precise read on where the economy is at any point in time.  The additional fear now is that both these monetary bodies are increasing the prime rates in order to tackle this hyperinflation at a time when the economy is attempting to get back on its feet after the disastrous pandemic period — thus the concerns about a potential recession in both countries and around the world.

Now, you don’t have to be an economist to know that something’s wrong.  Filling up your gas tank, buying a home and purchasing groceries just got incredibly more expensive!  Governments blame much of the distress on post-pandemic supply chain problems and global fuel-food shortages due to the Russia-Ukraine war.  On top of which, there are suddenly skilled labour shortages in most countries, leading to increasing wage levels and low unemployment rates.  The current situation has particularly been led by Boomers, many of whom have chosen to retire.  An April paper by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond found that “the pandemic has permanently reduced participation in the economy.”  Due to the lack of and high cost of child care for example, many women are financially unable to return to the labour market.  In order to fill many jobs, countries are having again to look to immigration policies as a possible solution.

Recent blow-out jobs reports may have quieted claims that the U.S. is in a recession, but it did not end the mystery about the state of the economy or resolve questions about where it is headed.  Should a recession evolve in the U.S., past experience would suggest that Canada is not far behind.  Similarly, both federal governments are under the gun to do something about inflation — a major political issue.  However, as most analysts state, the current economic situation is something completely new and unprecedented in light of post-pandemic elements and the current global situation with respect to supply chains, especially in Europe.

Higher interest rates as a result of Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada benchmark interest rate increases to control the hyperinflation will have an immediate impact on lowering economic growth.  Consumers feeling the hit will most likely have to cut back on expenditures, including the purchases of homes due to the subsequent rise in mortgage rates.  Whether or not we are on the brink of a major recession is still up in the air.  There is no sector of the economy that hasn’t been affected during this so-called recovery period. 

However, how about longer-term predictions?  As the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, once said: “In the long-run, we are all dead.”  He further noted that aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy.  Instead, it is influenced by a host of factors —sometimes behaving erratically — affecting production, employment and inflation.  As of today, this definitely appears to be the case.  All any of us can do is hope to survive during the foreseen continuing turmoil within the markets and the economy in general.  In the spirit of economics as a ‘dismal science’, most economists for are not overly optimistic about improved short-term growth. 

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Aug 14

Once Donald Trump’s Actions Were Considered Farcical, Now They’re Considered Dangerous

by bcurry

During the former president’s term in office, Donald Trump often became the butt of many a comedian jokes, most notably on NBC’s Saturday Night Live.  Yes, previous presidents have been made fun of from time to time.  However, once Trump lost the election and his declaration that the election was stolen led to the January 6th assault on the Capitol, he has now become even more dangerous.  No longer as the president, recent events have shown how his actions and statements have created a precarious situation.  The search this past week by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of his private residence at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida., was one more incident of now citizen Trump believing he is above the law.  The legal search appeared to be part of a long-running investigation of whether documents — some of them top-secret — were taken there instead of being sent to the National Archives when Trump left office.  There could be several violations falling under federal statutes, including the Espionage Act and Presidential Records Act.  Apparently, about twelve boxes containing classified documents were seized by the FBI.

Immediately after news broke of the FBI search at Trump’s Florida residence, posts began appearing on Truth Social, the Twitter-like social media platform backed by former Trump’s media and technology company.  Truth Social users called for civil war and advocated for violence against the FBI, some of the posts remaining online days after they were originally posted, according to NBC News.  Unfortunately, a number of Republicans and media sources such as Fox News and Breibart News attacked the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), specifically Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray and the FBI agents as part of the Democrat’s plot to tarnish the reputation of Donald Trump and to prevent him from running again in 2024.  According to the warrant and receipt of what authorities seized, Trump is being investigated for possibly breaking three federal laws: removal or destruction of records, obstructing an investigation and violating the Espionage Act.  Serious stuff!

The result of Trump’s accusing the DOJ and FBI of contributing to a witch hunt and that he had done nothing wrong, talk of violence by his supporters continues to mount.  Threats have been made against the federal judge who authorized the warrant to search for classified material and FBI agents whose names were on the warrant and receipt.  Then on August 11th, a 42-year-old Ohio man, identified as Ricky W. Shiffer, showed up at the Cincinnati field office of the FBI with an AR-15-style rifle.  Subsequently, he was shot to death after firing multiple times at the police during a standoff.  Mr. Shiffer’s social media posts later revealed that he was full of rage about, among other things, the search at Mar-a-Lago.

As Alan Feuer of the New York Times notes, as right-wing rhetoric escalates, so do threats and violence.  In his August 13th article, he refers to a study by Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence.  Professor Pape conducted half a dozen nationwide polls since the Jan. 6th attack and has repeatedly found the same alarming results: that between 15 million and 20 million American adults believe that violence would be justified to return Mr. Trump to office.  Instead of defusing the situation, Donald Trump, along with his supporters, continue to promote conspiracy theories.  He believes that a number of current investigations are simply examples of his ‘persecution’ by Democratic administrations in Washington and New York State.  Once again, the whole affair is a hoax.  He and members of his family have even suggested, ridiculously, that the classified documents were likely planted by the FBI during the search.  Even former Vice-President Mike Pence was quoted as sharing the “deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search of the personal residence of President Trump.”  Pence declared that after years where FBI agents were found to be acting on political motivation during his administration, the appearance of continued partisanship by the DOJ had to be addressed.  Remember how Trump fired then FBI Director James Comey in 2017 because he refused to pledge his loyalty to the President, no matter what!

Unless the hostile rhetoric and threats are quickly dealt with, there is little doubt that more violent incidents could occur, particularly against the targeted individuals noted above.  Obviously, the investigation by the DOJ and FBI is no joke.  This is the first time since Nixon and ‘Watergate’ that a former President is under investigation for violating several federal statutes.  My understanding is that no one is above the law.  However, under the current climate, the political ramifications of pursuing Donald Trump could determine whether further violence occurs and what will be the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election.

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Aug 9

Would You Be Interested In A Four-Day Workweek?

by bcurry

Between 2015 and 2019, several large-scale trials in the public sector of a four-day workweek were carried out in Iceland.  The results showed that the trials turned out to be an “overwhelming success,” with many workers shifting to shorter hours without affecting their productivity.  Some of the trials’ key findings showed that a shorter week translated into increased well-being of employees among a range of indicators, from stress and burnout to health and work-life balance.  The idea of the four-day week has been gaining ground in countries like New Zealand, Spain and Germany.  In the U.S. and Canada, a small but growing number of firms are moving to a four-day workweek that runs from Monday to Thursday.  In addition, the pandemic created a situation where employers began to experiment with alternative working arrangements, ranging from remote work to a variety of hybrid work routines including a four-day workweek.  Employers are expected to continue offering alternative working arrangements as a means to retain existing employees and to recruit new workers, especially given the tight labour markets found in most countries.

Now, there is not really anything new about employers implementing a four-day workweek for interested employees.  Long before the pandemic, I can recall several employers, especially in the public sector, who instituted policies allowing for some employees, where applicable, to work for four days a week and with the same number of weekly hours and wages.  For certain employees, the additional day off meant that they could spend more time with their families and use the extra free time to improve work-life balance.

More recently, there are those that would argue that a four-day workweek would help to reduce our carbon footprint.  For example, one or more fewer commutes to and from work would be required each week.  Transportation is the biggest contributor to greenhouse emissions, especially for vehicles using gas or diesel.  In 2020, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the transportation sector accounted for about 27 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.  Commuting is a big part of that.  It’s noteworthy that global emissions plunged an unprecedented 17 percent during the coronavirus pandemic and the air quality in cities around the world showed a marked improvement.  In North America, the high cost of housing in urban cores has meant that many workers have bought more affordable homes in the outskirts, a trend increased during the pandemic by a significant percentage of workers working remotely from home.

In addition, Juliet Schor, an economist and sociologist at Boston College who researches work, consumption and climate change, noted that energy could also be conserved if less resources are needed to heat and cool large office buildings.  However, to reduce demands on electricity, buildings would have to be pretty well shut down entirely for a day.  According to Scientific American, when the Utah state government launched a four-day workweek trial among its employees in 2008, one report projected that shutting down buildings on Fridays would lead to a decrease of at least 6,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually.  However, any potential energy-saving gains hinge on how companies and individuals use resources.  At a time when many companies are looking at ways to incur cost savings, the implementation of a four-day workweek might be appealing.

As more and more white-collar workers across the country settle into hybrid work routines, one thing is becoming clear: Nobody wants to be in the office on Fridays.  This premise came up time and time again in several related articles.  With hybrid working routines becoming more of a fixture in workplaces, it’s easy to see why employers are increasingly looking for more adaptable offices with more communal spaces and gathering areas instead of traditional cubicles or walled-in offices.  Issues surrounding work-life balance and healthy workplaces will continue to surface in the post-pandemic era.  Businesses and their workers will no doubt have to be more creative in developing appropriate alternative working arrangements, including possibly a four-day workweek.

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Aug 5

For Most Urban Centres, Affordable Housing Continues To Be A Primary Issue

by bcurry

For several years now, the issue of affordable housing has become a major concern in most of North America’s major cities.  We are especially talking about a large segment of young people who are questioning whether or not they can afford a home.  Middle-income households are now struggling with the issue of affordability in many of our cities.  For the last decade, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco in the U.S. and Toronto and Vancouver in Canada are examples of wealthy cities that have failed to meet the housing needs of low- and middle-income households.  What’s crazy is that in the last few years, the costs of housing jumped leaps and bounds, making it almost impossible for young middle-class individuals and families to afford a home despite low mortgage interest rates.  For example, the average price of a home in Canada peaked at just over $790,000 in February 2022, marking a 50 percent increase over two years.  The same situation has emerged in the most American cities.

Enter local, regional and national governments who began to introduce numerous programs and bagfuls of money to encourage developers to build more affordable homes, especially in a market where demand outstripped the housing supply.  The difficulty in today’s post-pandemic era is that developers themselves are being faced with increasing labour costs and shortages, higher land prices and construction costs, as well as financing constraints.  As a result, governments at all levels were showering developers and consumer groups with incentives, including tax breaks, reduced fees and promises of quick approval times.  Some housing activists would like more public funding to be funnelled into purpose-built rentals and co-operative housing — or “non-profit housing.”  Despite such incentives, affordable housing scarcity remains the number one concern in most communities.  In order to own a home, some people are being forced to purchase homes in outlying areas, creating what we call “rurbanization.”  Since many will work in the urban core, this then leads to increased commuting times and greater congestion on feeder routes, never mind environmental concerns over increased air pollution and greenhouse emissions.

Now, central banks in both countries are increasing their rates in order to curb the current hyperinflation.  It is anticipated that rising mortgage rates will force a decline in housing prices as more and more potential buyers back out of the market.  However, the housing correction is seen as only being a small “blip.”  Even with today’s expected price drop, some Canadian analysts note that the lower asking prices will still be nearly 30 percent above what they were in December 2019.

The costs of a lack of affordable housing can stretch into the broader economy as well.  When households are financially stretched with a greater share of income going to housing — often 50 percent or more, their consumption of other goods declines.  The lack of affordable housing has forced many the turn to the rental market for short-term accommodation, thereby causing a significant increase in rents in many cities.  Such is the “domino effect.”  The danger now is that the cuts in consumption will contribute to what economists believe will be a recession in both Canada and the U.S.  Under these circumstances, how can young people or couples really consider investing in home ownership?  Based on his observations, one analyst even suggested that there are women in their 20s who want to have babies, but put off doing so given that real estate prices are interfering with their ability to start a family.

From time to time, I read of huge mansions and estates selling for millions of dollars in cities like Toronto or Los Angeles.  This may be fine for multi-millionaires, but does little for the so-called struggling middle-class.  As a boomer, I was fortunate to live during a period when wages were good enough to buy a modest home in one of Canada’s biggest cities.  One can only ask if the age-old dream of home ownership has slowly but surely collapsed in today’s economy?  One cannot but feel for the millennials who it was estimated in 2019 could take up to 29 years to save enough money to afford a home in some of Canada’s biggest cities.

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Aug 2

Return to Offices in Post-Pandemic Era

by bcurry

Over two years after the pandemic abruptly forced tens of millions of people to start working from home, disrupting family lives and derailing careers, employers are now getting ready to bring workers back to offices.  However, it appears that workers in North America’s midsize and small cities have returned to the office in far greater numbers than those in the biggest cities.  Offices apparently have filled back up fastest in areas where COVID lockdowns were shortest and where commutes are done by car, rather than by public transit. 

In light of the Omicron variants which are creating other waves, the fact that the COVID pandemic is not over has created a snag in how employers are dealing with remote and in-person work.  In particular, the situation has forced some large and major employers to delay a return to the office.  The pandemic has also pushed employees to look at the health and safety protocols of their jobs and to become more vocal about the level of risk and the hazards they are facing.  Recruiters note that regional differences in office attendance and flexible work are making for a bumpier job market, especially given the increased competition for skilled workers in the current labour market.  In certain cases, some companies are forced to advertise jobs where the work is primarily done remotely.

Back-to-office plans have to take into consideration a number of challenges in order to accommodate workers in a healthy and safety manner.  The era of stuffing people into offices like sardines is over.  The inadequacy and poor quality of many existing office buildings was simply illustrated by the conditions surrounding the pandemic.  Indoor ventilation, air filtration and overcrowding became major concerns given the fact that highly infectious COVID was shown to be primarily spread as an aerosol.  The interior of many office towers today are climate controlled whereby one cannot open the windows in order to increase air quality.  Improving the ventilation and filtration systems has led to increased costs for landlords and tenants alike.  Another cost has been the need to have more stringent and frequent cleaning practices.

With health restrictions lifting, many workers are being called back to the in-person workplace, which can bring up a number of different feelings.  Employers can help ease this transition by having a comprehensive return-to-work plan, and clearly communicating it to workers.  Besides potential physical health hazards, there is also a need to address potential psychological hazards given the anxiety and stress that some returning employees may incur.  A gradual return to the workplace may ease anxiety, possibly by allowing for partial in-person work in the initial stages of the return-to-work plan.  There may also be a degree of anxiety of employees working alongside people who have not been vaccinated for COVID.  The question of mandated vaccination of workers became a highly controversial issue during this pandemic, causing a major schism between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Employers will have to address the issue as a policy matter and communicate their policy in a clear and concise manner.  They will also have to acknowledge and follow up on worker concerns or complaints.  They will have to show compassion and understanding that workers, particularly those that are immunocompromised, may be stressed, harassed or feel anxious.

How long will employers remain flexible?  When the pandemic loosens its grip, inevitably bosses could well demand that people file back in, and pronto.  The real question is whether the return-to-office plan will be done in a gradual, effective and controlled manner.  Several serious issues will have to be considered by employers as part of their plan, as highlighted above.  If the plan is not well thought out and effectively communicated, the issue of employee retention will quickly surface.  The situation of each individual employee will have to be taken into account and continuously monitored at the outset.  Flexibility is a key.  Employers may incur additional initial costs but they will be worthwhile in the long run.

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Jul 31

New World For Teachers in Parts of America?

by bcurry

Let’s just say that I’m a teacher in the great state of Florida, as an example.  Each and every day I enter the school, I’m faced with a slew of state rules and regulations as to what I can teach and which non-banned books my students can read.  By not adhering to these new requirements, I could be taken to court by parents with a complaint, suggesting that I’m now “grooming” my students — whatever that means?  Or I’d simply lose my job.

Let’s not talk about teaching sex education classes, especially given the severe restrictions imposed by the state with respect to any discussion of things like sexual orientation and gender identity.  Instead, I’m forced to tread very carefully in order to adhere to guidance on topics when considered “developmentally appropriate”, which in the context of the new law has yet to defined by the state’s Department of Education as to what it actually means.  This despite the fact that public opinion surveys show significant support for sexual education in the state.  According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), such support is particularly the result of reports which show that Florida has the third-highest rate of new HIV infections in the country and is ranked 23rd for teen pregnancies.

Unfortunately, there is also a teacher shortage in most schools, including the availability of substitute teachers.  According to the Florida Education Association, the state is already facing a dire teacher shortage, with 9,000 open teaching and staff positions unfilled as the new school year begins. The shortage is severe enough that Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed a law that allows military veterans to teach without the required teaching certificate or a four-year college degree.  Maybe, we should be saluting each other in the hallways?  After years of college and teaching courses, I’m beginning to feel a little overqualified.  On top of which, Florida’s new laws have made the profession less attractive for experienced teachers and new college graduates alike.

Oh, and now I may be expected to carry a gun.  After a gunman tragically killed 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida in 2018, a program was started to train school staff members to serve as armed guardians.  According to state officials, there are more than 1,300 such armed guardians in 45 school districts in Florida, out of 74 in the state.  As far as I know, studies on school employees carrying guns have been limited, and research so far has found little evidence that it is effective.  However, arming teachers is obviously an approach that aligns closely with an argument that has become a hall mark of the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the gun lobby: “The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.”  I guess that a good guy in this case is a teacher.  I just hope that no one gets accidentally shot, especially one of our students or a colleague.

Needless-to-say, the vast majority of teachers are dissatisfied with the current situation.  In addition, a teacher’s current pay is nothing to brag about.  According to the Florida Education Association, as of 2022, Florida ranks in the bottom five nationally for teacher salaries and many of its education staff professionals are deemed to be earning poverty wages.  On top of which, there is little in the way of employment security given that most teaching contracts are only for one year and there are few provisions for tenure.  The so-called “culture wars” have led to teacher firings with qualified, experienced educators getting a “pink slip” every year.  It’s hard not to consider resigning given the lack of respect, overcrowded classrooms, poor pay and the constant villainizing of teachers by state officials and radicalized parent groups.

As a reference, I would refer one to the Web site of the Florida Education Association (Teacher and Staff Shortage | Florida Education Association (feaweb.org), and to excellent articles by Lori Rozsa of The Washington Post (July 31, 2022) entitled Florida teachers race to remake lessons as DeSantis laws take effect and by Serah Mervosh of The New York Times entitled Trained, armed and ready to teach.

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Jul 29

How ‘Denial Syndrome’ Plays Out In COVID- 19 And Climate Change Debates

by bcurry

Just what is ‘denial syndrome’?  Psychologists define denial as the psychological process by which a painful truth is pushed out of an individual’s consciousness.  We use denial as a defense mechanism, to protect ourselves from the force of a truth we imagine will be too shattering for us to cope with.  Some current issues such as climate change and the global pandemic have made us feel deeply insecure about the present and the future.  This is where denial comes into its own as a way out.  It’s a lot easier than thinking up a series of individual excuses — just simply deny the whole problem exists.  Unfortunately, despite the best scientific evidence and explanation, there are health-care professionals who claimed the pandemic was all a hoax and environmentalists who deny that climate change exists.  This has led to a barrage of misinformation being put out and the emergence of conspiracy theories.

Take for example, the fact that several physicians in Canada have had their medical licences suspended by professional bodies for providing misinformation to patients about COVID vaccines, masking and available treatments.  Without any scientific evidence or studies, some have even made public assertions such as that COVID vaccines are more dangerous than the virus itself.  Some of these doctors taken to task by their regulator have challenged the discipline actions, arguing that they violate their right to free expression.  Earlier this month, the head the American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM), one of the biggest U.S. licensing bodies, commented on the free speech argument for doctors.  He stressed that if physicians want to keep their credentials, the concept of free speech does not extend to communicating misinformation, especially when such information can potentially harm their patients or pose a potential risk to public health.

When it comes to climate change, despite all of the scientific evidence that climatologists and other experts have gathered over decades, there are still some who would deny that it is an actual global issue.  Climate change science has been settled for decades, yet policymakers have yet to take sweeping action, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb to record highs.  There are some politicians who still believe that humans have nothing to do with what is happening to our climate.  The resulting inaction is driving some scientists to engage in civil disobedience.  A global campaign by Scientist Rebellion (SR) has begun.  SR is a climate network of scientists of all stripes and degrees aimed at partaking in non-violent civil disobedience and demanding climate action.  This past April, the group mobilized an estimated 1,000 scientists in 26 countries in protest.

Climate change denial is all around us.  Just today, I read a letter to the local newspaper by someone commenting on the recent U.K. heat wave which got a lot of attention for reaching a “record-breaking” 40 C in July.  The writer even had to go back as far as 1936 to note that London had reached 43.7 degrees centigrade during a two-day heat wave.  On top of which, he claims that so-called ‘eco-anxiety’ is rising because of the number of media stories that focus on extreme weather and blame it on climate change.  It certainly appeared to be the use of unsubstantiated arguments about biased reporting and ‘fake news’ as a denial tool.

Among conservative groups and political parties in both the U.S. and Canada, there are plenty of deniers to go around when it comes to these two issues.  Amazingly, they can produce their own experts and conspiracy theories in defence of their positions.  Why not just ignore the facts, much as former U.S. president Donald Trump did!  Incredibly, in the name of freedom of expression, some Republican politicians in the U.S., such as in Tennessee, have even gone further by introducing legislation to prohibit state medical boards from disciplining doctors who spread COVID falsehoods or prescribe unproven treatments.  Interestingly, with just 55 percent of its population double-vaccinated, Tennessee has suffered more than four times as many COVID deaths per 100,000 as the province of Ontario.

Whether personal or organizational, denial has real consequences.  No better examples are applicable to those related to climate change and the pandemic.

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Jul 27

Republicans Facing Several Major Serious Issues Within Party Before Mid-Terms

by bcurry

Well, I just learned from a Washington Post report that former President Trump’s actions are now being investigated by Justice Department prosecutors as part of an inquiry into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.  Recent testimony before the January 6th House committee also appears to suggest that there is enough evidence to conclude that the former president and some of his allies might have conspired to commit fraud and obstruction by misleading Americans about the outcome of the 2020 election and attempting to overturn the result.  The Republican Party establishment must be greatly disturbed by what is coming out of the committee’s public hearings, although many Republicans in Congress are still boohooing the hearings as a Democrat plot to malign Trump’s reputation.

However, Trump is not helping his case by his recent speeches where he continues to claim that the election was stolen.  What’s worst is the fact that a recent poll of Republican voters taken by the New York Times/Siena College showed that 49 percent said they would back Trump if he ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.  This compared with just 6 percent who said they would vote for former Vice-President Mike Pence and 25 percent who supported Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.  The Trump vs. Pence public squabbles has caused many Republicans’ to have frustrations and reservations about a possible 2024 Trump campaign, suggesting that it could cause large numbers of Republican voters to defect from the party in a general election.  Donald Trump and his rowdy supporters won’t just go away!

In addition, it has been reported that online fundraising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.  Exacerbating the fundraising problems for Republicans is that Trump continues to be the party’s dominant fundraiser.  Indeed, pro-Trump super PACs had amassed more than $100 million by last summer.  Yet virtually none of the tens of millions of dollars he raised has gone toward defeating Democrats.  The money has instead funded his political team and retribution agenda against Republicans who have crossed him.  Of course, money alone does not win political races, but any lack of funds can hamper party campaigns.

Then there has been the recent decision by the primarily conservative Supreme Court in overturning Roe v. Wade that has set off an array of attacks by women’s groups over the withdrawal of abortion services and the banning of abortion practices in Republican governed states.  Take this issue into consideration and the potential attack by Republicans on LGBTQ+ issues, including same sex marriages, there is a growing movement against what are being depicted as extremist right-wing policies.  The Democrats may be able to use the far right Republican platforms in their mid-term campaign to galvanize their rank and file and to secure the support of frustrated interest groups.  Much will depend on how Congressional Republicans handle certain initiatives in the coming months, including that which would protect the legitimacy of same sex marriages.

At the state level, there is little doubt that in those governed by Republicans there are still enough conservative votes to win the day and maintain their power.  However, at the federal level, the Republicans definitely appear to be in trouble, especially if Donald Trump is capable of riling up his base.  It will be interesting to see if the Republicans can resolve their evident split within the party before the mid-terms and most certainly in time for the next presidential election.  To the distress of the Republican establishment, Donald Trump and his allies are continuing to schedule events and are raising money for initiatives intended to make the former president a central player in the midterm elections, and possibly to set the stage for another run for the White House. 

One would love to be a fly on the wall at behind-the-scene discussions among leading Republican strategists.  I’m certain that they have a lot of serious issues to talk about!

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Jul 21

Incredible Scenes of Democratic Representatives in Congress Being Arrested During Protests

by bcurry

Earlier this past week during an abortion rights protest over the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, at least 17 Democratic lawmakers were among the 35 people arrested by the Capitol Police for blocking traffic outside the courthouse.  The arrest of lawmakers in this manner is something almost unheard of in Canada.  Canadian legislators tend to be somewhat docile when outside the House of Commons in Ottawa.  The most that Members of Parliament (MP) will do is to attend peaceful protests on the front lawn of Parliament’s centre block, sometimes to speak in support of some cause or another.  I can’t remember the last time that an MP was arrested as part of any protest in Ottawa.  However, back in March 2018, two federal politicians, including Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and New Democratic Party (NDP) MP Kennedy Stewart, were arrested at a protest against Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain federally approved pipeline expansion in Burnaby, British Columbia.

On the other hand, in Washington, such incidences among House Representatives appear to have happened in other cases.  Indeed, it was reported that Rep. Judy Chu, D-Calif., was arrested last month outside the Supreme Court for protesting.  In July 2021, Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, was arrested at the Hart Senate Office Building for protesting in favor of voting rights legislation.

Protests are protected by the First Amendment of the American Constitution, but like in Canada, there is still the need for protesters to abide by laws.  In the most recent incident, the U.S. Capitol Police tweeted about the situation: “Demonstrators are starting to block First Street, NE. It is against the law to block traffic, so officers are going to give our standard three warnings before they start making arrests.”  In light of the minor violation, those arrested were later released at the scene, with police telling the ABC News they were likely to face a $US50 ($72.48 Canadian) fine.  Among those arrested was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, who became the youngest woman elected to the House of Representatives, and has rocketed to political notoriety.  The arrests of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and the other Democrats resulted in coverage by a large number of news media outlets and extensively by social media sources.  There is little doubt that this type of media coverage involving lawmakers gives a protest a good deal of press, good and bad.

Former charismatic Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who was PM from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984, once exclaimed to the house speaker that opposition MPs were nobodies once they were “50 yards from Parliament Hill”.  Of course, that was before social media and daily digital news.  Most recently, several opposition Conservative MPs, including leadership contender Pierre Poilievre, met with the illegal Trucker Convoy which had occupied the streets in front of Parliament for over three weeks in February of this year.  The New York Times wrote that the Conservatives, the only other party to form a government in Canada, were readying for a fight and saw the truckers and their followers not as outcasts but as political currency that can bring in votes — and money.  With his photo-op, Poilievre was depicted as the protesters’ political champion at the time, although as the illegal occupation continued Conservative support was condemned by many Canadians, and most certainly by those living in Ottawa at the time.  No other party MPs met with the protesters, viewing the occupation as being unlawful, eventually being removed by the police and leading to the arrests of dozens of protesters.  The social and economic impact of the occupation ultimately led to the federal government’s invocation of the Emergencies Act to facilitate the removal of occupying vehicles from streets within the Parliamentary precinct in Ottawa.

In general, Canadian legislators tend to avoid participation in protests, many of which occur in the capital on a daily basis.  Even members of the left-wing NDP are normally careful not to participate in protests outside of the legislature, particularly those involving extremists.  The one big difference in Canada is the more apolitical system used for appointing federal justices, including those appointed to the Supreme Court.  With the highly politicized recent decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court — comprised of four conservative-leaning justices who were appointed during the Trump administration — it is not surprising that protests have erupted outside the Supreme Court.  What’s surprising is the participation by members of Congress in such protests and their subsequent arrests by Capitol Police!  This is something that is unheard of in Canada — perhaps somewhat regrettably in certain cases.  However, time will tell for our “nobodies”.

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Jul 18

Potential for Insurgency Grows Everyday in U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

Two recent events in the U.S. and in Canada have clearly illustrated the growth of insurgent groups: the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol and the three week occupation by a Trucker Convoy in Ottawa, Canada, in February of this year.  In both cases, various groups, including radical right extremists, proclaimed openly their intention to overthrow the current governments and forcibly replace them with another regime of some sort.  What these two events clearly illustrated is that these groups have become well organized, funded and are led openly by radicalized leaders.  What is even more clearly evident is that the insurgents are still operating despite many of their leaders and members having been arrested and imprisoned following the above two events.

What is common between the American and Canadian movements is that they are continuing to recruit, especially among ex-military and police veterans.  Several veterans played a significant role in Canada, attempting to garner support and credibility among the public for their causes.  In addition, these individuals bring training and military/law enforcement experience to the movements, as well as contributing intelligence for a movement.  The next inevitable stage is one that leads to the formulation of an armed quasi-militia capable of carrying out a few isolated attacks.  Weapons and explosives were seized in the Capitol attack and at the unlawful Coutts, Alberta, border blockade, with subsequent charges being laid in each case.  Four persons arrested with weapons in Alberta were tied to Canada’s Diagolon far-right extremist militia group, well known to the authorities.  In January 2021, a 22-year-old Canadian man crossed the border into Detroit where the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s “tactical terrorism response team” found an assault rifle and two other guns, plus extremist white-supremacy material on his cellphone.  Connections among American and Canadian white-supremacy groups have been well documented, a number of whom are hoping to promote race and civil wars.

These movements are allowed to grow until you have more open insurgency, when you start to have a series of consistent attacks, and it becomes impossible to ignore.  What is clearly evident is that potential insurgencies tend to be much more decentralized, often fought by multiple groups.  There is not one overall governing group within both countries.  Leadership can most often extend to more local community levels, making recruitment a lot easier and training and planning a lot more difficult for authorities to monitor.  Cases of violent activity are deemed to be isolated cases by local authorities and even ignored, often by law enforcement.  However, when one adds up such events involving threatening protests, one cannot help but conclude that they represent a much larger campaign, organized and funded by extremists.

There will be those who will claim that alluding to insurgency movements is no more than another form of fearmongering.  However, such arguments cannot explain away that certain groups believe that democracies are backsliding.  There’s a clear sense that they firmly believe that governments are not that legitimate.  These are angry people who are unhappy with governments and open to being exploited by insurgent groups.  Unfortunately, some more ‘populist’ politicians, ala Donald Trump, have taken advantage of the situation for political gain.  Some observers claim that this is what is happening inside the Republican Party in the U.S. and among certain leadership hopefuls within the national Conservative Party and in the Peoples Party in Canada.  Unfortunately, appearing publicly alongside or among members of extremist groups can only give more legitimacy to such movements in the eyes of the public at large.

One thing is for certain, democratically elected governments can no longer give a blind eye to the growth of insurgency movements in either country.  Recent events have shown that such movements are openly promoting deliberate and organized attacks on our democratic institutions.  If citizens and their elected officials don’t recognize the potential danger to our democracy, than they are playing a very dangerous game.  We can no longer ignore the growth of these movements, both locally and nationally.  To do so, is to invite even more future violent and unlawful attacks.

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