FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Oct 7

Would Trump Really Enact the Insurrection Act?

by bcurry

The Insurrection Act of 1807 allows the president to use active-duty military personnel to perform law-enforcement duties inside the U.S.  Unfortunately, the Insurrection Act was written in fairly broad terms, with little specific guidance on how and when the powers can be used.  It apparently gives presidents wide latitude in deciding when to mobilise military personnel for domestic operations.  Presidents can invoke the law if they determine that “unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion” against the government make it “impracticable to enforce” U.S. law “by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings”.  To date, President Trump has chosen not to invoke this Act.  One important reason is that if he chooses to invoke the Act, it remains unclear what further legal challenges he might face.  Since the start of his second term, he has sent or talked about sending troops to 10 American cities.

Already, the Trump administration is facing numerous challenges to his use of federalizing the National Guard in cases involving Los Angeles and Chicago.  Most recently, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from deploying any National Guard units to Portland, Oregon, including the California National Guard.  U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut, who was appointed by Trump during his first term, issued the order pending further arguments in a lawsuit brought by the state and city.  She said the relatively small protests the city has seen did not justify the use of federalized forces and allowing the deployment could harm Oregon’s state sovereignty.  California and Oregon also sought the temporary restraining order after U.S. President Donald Trump sent guard members from California to Oregon.  The same judge temporarily blocked his administration from deploying Oregon National Guard troops to Portland.  This upset Trump who then talked about invoking the Insurrection Act.

The use of the Insurrection Act has normally been under very exceptional circumstances since its first use by Abraham Lincoln when the southern states rebelled during the US Civil War, and by former President Ulysses S Grant against a wave of racist violence by the Ku Klux Klan after the war.  It was last used by President George Bush in 1992 when massive riots broke out in Los Angeles over the acquittal of four white police officers in the beating of Rodney King, a black man.  The American government has traditionally worked to limit the use of military force on American soil, especially against its own citizens.  Its use would be an extreme option in order to allow the Trump administration to circumvent legal hurdles.  It was reported that White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller in creditably declared that the government was facing a “legal insurrection”, and that court rulings against its law enforcement efforts were tantamount to “an insurrection against the laws and Constitution of the United States”. 

Suggesting that the use of the military to assist local police forces, as was the case in Washington, D.C., in fighting urban criminal activities would appear to be an extreme measure and one which does not inspire confidence in local and state police forces.  There has to date been no real evidence of any form of organized insurrection in American cities.  Suggesting that the police cannot deal with civil protests against such policies as the Trump administration’s approach to the potential arrests of illegal undocumented persons has been greatly exaggerated.  In effect, the appearance of military personnel on the streets only makes the potential angry reaction of peaceful protesting groups even more likely, especially when they are exposed to the use of tear gas and other riot control measures.

Invoking the Insurrection Act under the current circumstances would be a serious political and policy mistake on the part of the President.  It would certainly strengthen the perception that this administration has become increasingly authoritarian in its use of presidential powers, very often attempting to circumvent the judicial system.  I strongly believe that given its very definition, there is no existing insurrection in the U.S., armed or otherwise.  The very use of this term has been severely abused by the Trump administration, and can only lead to much more unrest by the citizenry in the affected cities of this great nation. 

Civil Rights Donald Trump Judicial System Urban Issues US

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Aug 12

Trump’s Use of Military for Domestic Policing Represents a New and Dangerous Trend

by bcurry

Let me take you back to the province of Quebec in the fall of 1970, and what became known as the October Crisis in Canada. The crisis was the culmination of a long series of terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Front de libération du Québec (FLQ), a militant Quebec independence movement, between 1963 and 1970.  On 5 October 1970, the FLQ kidnapped British trade commissioner James Cross in Montreal.  Within the next two weeks, FLQ members also kidnapped and killed Quebec Minister of Immigration and Minister of Labour Pierre Laporte. Quebec’s premier Robert Bourassa and Montreal’s mayor Jean Drapeau called for federal help to deal with the perceived crisis.  In response, then Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, by invoking the War Measures Act, deployed the Armed Forces across Quebec and in Ottawa — the only time it had been applied during peacetime in Canadian history.  Seen as inappropriate and overkill at the time by legislators, the federal government subsequently substituted it with the Emergencies Act in 1988 as the modern-day replacement to the previous War Measures Act which had not been designed to deal with domestic security issues.  At the time of the October Crisis and the related deployment of Canadian troops, the American media quickly decried the move as something that could never happen in the U.S. under its constitution!

Well, all that has now changed with the Trump administration’s recent deployment of 4,700 National Guard troops and Marines to Los Angeles, without the California governor’s request,  to help quell protests that had erupted over immigration raids and to protect the federal agents conducting them.  Just this week, that move has been followed up by the contentious announcement that at least 800 National Guard troops are to be deployed into the streets of Washington, D.C., to supposedly fight a growing crime wave.  What is concerning is that officials have stated that the soldiers in Washington will probably be able to detain people temporarily in certain circumstances until federal agents arrive.  It is also reported that Military leaders are trying to keep the rules of engagement for the D.C. mission as narrow as possible. One Defense Department official reportedly stated that soldiers carrying M-16s, who have been trained to kill adversaries, are not to be put in policing roles.  However, if threatened they can use force in response, whatever that means.  In the case of L.A., some National Guard soldiers were accused of having used overly aggressive tactics against protesters. Trump has also hinted that similar deployments could be done in other urban centres, mentioning Chicago and New York City.

Local citizen protests have already begun in Washington, and are expected no doubt to continue.  The city’s mayor expressed similar disbelief, noting that the last two year’s statistics have shown an actual decline in violent crime ranging from 20 to 25 percent.  The outrage is understandable, since the Canadian 1970 experience led to hundreds of unwarranted arrests of innocent people by the authorities, who in several cases where simply political opponents of the Quebec government at the time.  This created a subsequent backlash among political parties and Canadians, resulting in the legislative changes as noted above. 

In interviews with The New York Times, members of the California National Guard said the deployment to Los Angeles had eroded the morale of the force.  Guard officials also expressed concerns that the L.A. deployment would hurt re-enlistment.  For the military as a whole, the cost could come in recruiting and retention, something critics are warning could also happen in Washington.

In a democracy, deploying troops domestically during peacetime without justification and on a whim can be very damaging from an institutional and political standpoint.  In this case, the president is overstepping his power and needs to be challenged by Congress and in the courts.  Let’s face it, there is no immediate threat to national security and this militarized process undermines the credibility and integrity of local and state police forces.  While the domestic deployment of armed forces to assist communities facing local natural disasters such as wildfires, earthquakes and floods can be justified, their deployment under the above circumstances is unwarranted and represents a dangerous precedent.  

Civil Liberties Defence Donald Trump Federal Government Immigration Police Services Quebec Politics Terrorism Urban Issues US

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Aug 31

Why Urban Politics At Times Appears To Be More Important Than Even National Politics

by bcurry

Think about it.  How many things that your local government looks after affect city dwellers on a daily basis?  Sometimes they may seem fairly mundane, but there is little doubt that they have a direct impact on us.  These include things that have to do with schools, public transit, roads, sewer and water systems, property taxes, urban waste disposal, policing and crime, medical facilities, first responders, etc., etc.  Often local issues far outweigh even those issues under review at the national level, which can seem to be very distant and not always of any direct import to us.

We tend to put more trust in our local leaders, who generally are members of our communities and are easier to contact than one’s national government representatives.  When something is a problem locally, municipal council representatives and urban administrators normally can be more easily accessed in order to file a complaint or raise an issue.  Moreover, this ready access implies that one can trust local officials to respond to our needs and thus are more trustworthy.

However, this level of trust has been somewhat damaged in recent years.  Much of this has to do with the rapid development that most urban centers are experiencing; be it with respect to housing, urban transit, infrastructure, green spaces, and other local developments.  As a result, there is a large amount of possible profits to be made by developers.  This is particularly true in California where a real estate boom drove political corruption, particularly in Los Angeles.  Jose Huizar, a member of City Council had gained control of the influential committee that approves multimillion-dollar commercial development projects across the city.  Reportedly, F.B.I. agents caught him accepting $1.8 million worth of casino chips, luxury hotel stays, prostitutes and a liquor box full of cash from Chinese developers.  As reported by the New York Times, he will become the third recent Los Angeles City Council member to go down as part of corruption investigations. This is part of a much larger circle of staff aides, fund-raisers, political consultants and real estate developers who have been charged in what federal authorities called an “extraordinary” recent wave of bribery and influence-peddling across California .  It is also reported that over the last 10 years, 576 public officials in California have been convicted on federal corruption and racketeering charges, including in San Francisco, South Gate, Bell, Lynwood and Vernon.

Why is it taking so long to uncover such corruption?  Part of the answer may lie in the fact that fewer smaller cities and towns have local reliable media sources such as newspapers and radio stations.  In larger centers, cutbacks in local reporting capabilities have led to a decline in investigative reporting.  In addition, you may have large immigrant populations, largely marginalized communities that do not have the resources to watch their politicians closely.  Increasingly, we have seen the need to have independent auditors to oversee the budgets and financial activities of municipal governments.  Their duties are similar to what one sees at the state, provincial and national levels.  In the U.S., unlike in Canada, municipal politics often involves political parties, Democrats or Republicans.  When a political party controls councils for a lengthy period and enjoys uncontested power, there’s appears to be no real penalty for stepping over ethical or legal lines.

Unfortunately, corruption is most often discovered through more indirect means or third-party observation, particularly when it comes to influence-peddling.  For the most part, representatives in municipal government tend to be trustworthy.  However, the evidence has shown that some developers and businesses are prone to offering certain incentives to local officials in order to influence their choices for major developments and services.  This is why it is so important to have independent oversight of matters related to urban policies, just as it is for those in higher levels of government.  Without it, one risks the possibility of inappropriate decisions being made that will affect all of us locally.  Given the number of critical services delivered locally, city governments do indeed have a good deal of responsibility and accountability.

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Apr 25

Worsening Air Pollution Leads To Worsening Health

by bcurry

The findings in a new report from the American Lung Association (ALA) show the worst toxic particle pollution in the 25 years since the Association released its first annual “State of the Air” report.  More than 131 million Americans live in areas that indicated unhealthy levels of air pollution.  Higher pollution rates have been found to lead to higher rates of chronic health problems such as asthma, diabetes and heart disease.  In the long term, researchers have even found that pollution very likely is linked to brain damage that puts people at higher risk of Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease and other related dementias. 

The ALA report used only data from 2020 to 2022.  It did not include the impact of the historic wildfires across Canada in 2023 that choked many eastern U.S. and Canadian cities, often turning skies orange.  Air quality across American and Canadian cities is once again expected to deteriorate due to an early start to the wildfire season already underway this spring, notably in Alberta and British Columbia.

The costs of health impacts due to pollution, especially on the health care system, are enormous.  A University of B.C. study in 2007 claimed that pollution is killing 25,000 Canadians a year and costing the health care system more than $9 billion (Can) annually.  A recent analysis by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggested that further lowering the level of allowable particulate matter in the air would save lives and health costs.  By 2032, the EPA estimates that it would amount to $46 billion (U.S.) in cost savings and help the U.S. avoid 4,500 premature deaths, 800,000 cases of asthma and 290,000 lost workdays.

Paul Billings, ALA’s senior vice president of public policy, told USA TODAY that, despite a lot of progress on air pollution cleanup, we’re seeing the impacts of climate change, particularly wildfires.  The impact is overwhelming a lot of cleanup, particularly with respect to these daily spikes of particle pollution.  There is little doubt that much more needs to be done in both the U.S. and Canada to reduce air pollution and improve air quality.  Both countries have managed to do this with respect to ozone levels which have declined in some places due to governments acting on implementing regulated restrictions and encouraging new greener technologies.

So when you go out for your daily run or bicycling in urban locations, don’t forget that you may be breathing in air that very likely will not be overly healthy for you physically.  If you must, do so in the early morning hours when pollution levels are at their lowest.  Take the appropriate precautions, especially during the wildfire season by wearing an appropriate mask and limiting your outdoor activities when applicable.  Fortunately, most municipalities have good air quality monitoring on a continuing basis which can be accessed daily via the Internet.  I know that I’ll be using these information sources once again this coming summer.  Good luck and good health!

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Sep 17

Several American Unions Are Striking Partly Over Technological Change

by bcurry

As one union leader pointed out, we are in a new industrial revolution spurred on by advances in high tech, including in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).

Just this past week, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union in the U.S. went on strike, targeting strikes in three locations against the big three auto makers: General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Jeep and Ram.  Now, while the strike by the UAW is about the usual contract items such as wages and benefits, there is one additional item — the preservation of union jobs as they ramp up electric vehicle manufacturing and as the industry shifts to batteries.  Because they have fewer parts, electric cars can be made with fewer workers than gasoline vehicles.  Plants that make mufflers, catalytic converters, fuel injectors and other components that electric cars don’t need will have to be overhauled or shut down.

In another instance, back in the spring, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.  Again, the main issues are related to fair compensation.  Shortly after, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) went on strike in July, joining the WGA.  This is the first time that both the WGA and SAG have been on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers at the same time since 1960.  Again, technological changes are among the issues at hand for both groups, including changes to the entertainment environment due to streaming and the potential use of AI in screen productions and script writing.

Madeline Janis, executive director of Jobs to Move America, an advocacy group that works closely with the U.A.W. and other unions, noted: “The U.A.W. is really taking a stand for communities across the country to make sure this transition benefits everybody.”  Declaring this as the dawn of another industrial revolution, she highlights that the strike is probably the first of many to come in sectors where unions are faced with significant technological changes, including in mainstream media as regards journalism, the trucking industry with respect to self-driving vehicles, etc., etc.  In the past, robotics and automation dominated many of the unions’ concerns.  Now, a whole new era has begun.  One has to believe that workers are ready to take a firm stand, as well as employers who are faced with stift competition, often from non-unionized companies.  As a result, such strikes could be long and nasty.

There is little that governments can do to prevent the prolongation of strikes during the current environment, especially when it comes to technological changes driven by global market forces.  We have yet to see the full impact of AI on employment and the workplace as it is still in its infancy stages.  There are a lot of difficult questions that need to be asked.  As in the past with respect to technological change, the union movement will be among the first to seek out the answers.  For this reason, I look forward to witnessing and analyzing the outcomes of these confrontations.

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Aug 5

For Most Urban Centres, Affordable Housing Continues To Be A Primary Issue

by bcurry

For several years now, the issue of affordable housing has become a major concern in most of North America’s major cities.  We are especially talking about a large segment of young people who are questioning whether or not they can afford a home.  Middle-income households are now struggling with the issue of affordability in many of our cities.  For the last decade, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco in the U.S. and Toronto and Vancouver in Canada are examples of wealthy cities that have failed to meet the housing needs of low- and middle-income households.  What’s crazy is that in the last few years, the costs of housing jumped leaps and bounds, making it almost impossible for young middle-class individuals and families to afford a home despite low mortgage interest rates.  For example, the average price of a home in Canada peaked at just over $790,000 in February 2022, marking a 50 percent increase over two years.  The same situation has emerged in the most American cities.

Enter local, regional and national governments who began to introduce numerous programs and bagfuls of money to encourage developers to build more affordable homes, especially in a market where demand outstripped the housing supply.  The difficulty in today’s post-pandemic era is that developers themselves are being faced with increasing labour costs and shortages, higher land prices and construction costs, as well as financing constraints.  As a result, governments at all levels were showering developers and consumer groups with incentives, including tax breaks, reduced fees and promises of quick approval times.  Some housing activists would like more public funding to be funnelled into purpose-built rentals and co-operative housing — or “non-profit housing.”  Despite such incentives, affordable housing scarcity remains the number one concern in most communities.  In order to own a home, some people are being forced to purchase homes in outlying areas, creating what we call “rurbanization.”  Since many will work in the urban core, this then leads to increased commuting times and greater congestion on feeder routes, never mind environmental concerns over increased air pollution and greenhouse emissions.

Now, central banks in both countries are increasing their rates in order to curb the current hyperinflation.  It is anticipated that rising mortgage rates will force a decline in housing prices as more and more potential buyers back out of the market.  However, the housing correction is seen as only being a small “blip.”  Even with today’s expected price drop, some Canadian analysts note that the lower asking prices will still be nearly 30 percent above what they were in December 2019.

The costs of a lack of affordable housing can stretch into the broader economy as well.  When households are financially stretched with a greater share of income going to housing — often 50 percent or more, their consumption of other goods declines.  The lack of affordable housing has forced many the turn to the rental market for short-term accommodation, thereby causing a significant increase in rents in many cities.  Such is the “domino effect.”  The danger now is that the cuts in consumption will contribute to what economists believe will be a recession in both Canada and the U.S.  Under these circumstances, how can young people or couples really consider investing in home ownership?  Based on his observations, one analyst even suggested that there are women in their 20s who want to have babies, but put off doing so given that real estate prices are interfering with their ability to start a family.

From time to time, I read of huge mansions and estates selling for millions of dollars in cities like Toronto or Los Angeles.  This may be fine for multi-millionaires, but does little for the so-called struggling middle-class.  As a boomer, I was fortunate to live during a period when wages were good enough to buy a modest home in one of Canada’s biggest cities.  One can only ask if the age-old dream of home ownership has slowly but surely collapsed in today’s economy?  One cannot but feel for the millennials who it was estimated in 2019 could take up to 29 years to save enough money to afford a home in some of Canada’s biggest cities.

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Jun 21

Cities Will Definitely Not Be the Same After the Pandemic Is Over

by bcurry

A recent New York Times headline read: “New York Faces Lasting Economic Toll Even as Pandemic Passes.”  This should come as no big surprise given the nature of New York city’s industrial make-up, a good deal of which depends on foreign and domestic tourism.  Indeed, the article notes that the city had an 11.8 percent decline in jobs from February 2020 to April 2021, almost three times the loss on the national level.  Boarded-up storefronts and for-lease signs dot many of its neighborhoods.  Many of the businesses that depend on office and other workers who work in the core have yet to experience any substantive turnaround, especially in the retail, hospitality and performing arts sectors.  Of concern to the services sector is that several large corporations like Google and Facebook, as major commercial tenants, will not require the same amount of office space with a good percent of their staff continuing to work remotely full time or two or three days a week.  With fewer people commuting daily to downtown businesses, there will also be a substantive need to examine current public transportation policies.

While the example of New York is certainly considered to be an extreme situation, there is little doubt that all urban centers in North America will have to adjust economically and socially in the near future.  The impact of the pandemic will leave a substantial mark on every aspect of urban life for sometime to come.  The most evident immediate impact can be seen in the housing market.  Working remotely from home is only one of several factors influencing the rising costs of housing, especially single detached homes.  The average sale price for a home in Canada for example has surged 38 percent to $688,208 over the past year amid a pandemic-driven housing boom, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.  Technology has allowed more people to work from ‘rurban’ communities than ever before, eliminating much of the need to commute to and from urban workplaces.  Employers are having to adjust their working arrangements to accommodate employees, who in many cases have essential skills in short supply.

Even Ottawa, where I live, is experiencing many of the economic and social consequences of the pandemic, despite being primarily a government town and having less of an economic impact that most cities.  However, as in the case of New York, Ottawa has seen dozens of small businesses, which before the pandemic employed about much of the city’s work force, haven’t survived.  Tourism, a major part of the National Capital Region, is way down, affecting hotels, tour operations, restaurants and bars.  The closure of the American border over the past year to non-essential traffic and major restrictions on international air travel has had a major impact on tourism.  Sports and entertainment venues, including Ottawa’s large festival industry, have been non-existent since the beginning of the pandemic.  Like many urban communities, the city is counting on the vaccination of seventy or more percent of its population to eventually encourage locals to return to recreational and indoor activities across the region.  However, much like projections for New York, most observers predict that it’s going to be a long, slow recovery.  Indeed, one can further predict that the eventual outcome will be quite different from pre-pandemic conditions in North American cities.

Canada Coronavirus COVID-19 Economy Economy U.S. Canada Border Urban Issues US

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May 7

Big Problems When a Handful of Superstar Cities Thrive and Much of a Country Struggles

by bcurry

If there is one thing that the pandemic has highlighted it is the existing economic disparity between so-called “superstar cities” and the rest of a country.  The pandemic clearly demonstrated that there are significant differences in how communities are capable of tackling outbreaks.  Federal policies in recent decades have arguably reinforced the disparities.  In the U.S., research and development (R&D) expenditures went primarily to California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Virginia and Washington, D.C.  In Canada, the majority of R&D expenditures went to Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec.  Within each state and province there are cities that benefited the most, such as Boston, Los Angeles, Toronto or Vancouver.  In addition, their populations grew while populations in smaller urban and rural areas decreased, particularly as people moved into those centers offering the most employment opportunities and public services.

With the decline in manufacturing in both countries and the rise of the information economy, it was only natural that new businesses, especially in knowledge-based industries, would set up in superstar cities.  After all, they had the needed labour force and infrastructure, including broadband services, educational institutions and R&D facilities.  As populations got bigger, with many higher paying jobs, the tax base increased.  A greater tax base allows these communities to offer their population more attractive social amenities, education opportunities and high-standards of health care.  Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, a shrinking population over decades reduces the tax base, leading to under-investment and deterioration of the physical environment and public services, causing even more jobs and people to go elsewhere.

Even in the superstar cities, the results of the pandemic will alter the nature of people’s work environments, particularly for those who will continue to work from home.  The whole notion of urban densification will change with workers being able to work from more remote locations situated outside of the urban core.  This will have an impact on infrastructure development, including public transportation hubs, schools and health care facilities.  No need to worry, for superstar cities will most likely be in an economic position to accommodate these changes.

At no time in our history has there been such a need for major changes as to how we look at urban development.  These emerging developments, demographic and technological, are occurring at an unbelievably fast pace.  The question will be whether national, state/provincial and local governments can adjust fast enough to meet the challenges?  In one way or another, everyone in the country is going to be affected, positively or negatively.  The pandemic has simply accelerated the need to develop national urban strategies, something which to date has not been done effectively if at all.

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