FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Why the Shortage of Labour Will Be a Likely Issue in the Short-term for Certain Sectors

I was surprised somewhat to read that more than 4 million Americans are going to be cut off from federal provided jobless benefits in the next few weeks.  Apparently, 25 states, all led by Republicans, decided to halt some or all emergency benefits months ahead of schedule.  It appears that some business owners and managers have argued that the assistance income, which enabled people to pay rent and buy groceries when much of the economy was shut down, is now dissuading them from applying for jobs.  Many of the businesses affected are in the service and hospitality sectors.  However, the current reluctance or unavailability of workers to return to work can easily be explained by a number of evident factors.

Firstly, since March of 2020, lockdowns imposed by states and cities greatly affected restaurants, bars, clubs, etc. which are comprised often of low-paying employment.  During the past year, many former employees chose to look for other employment, especially attracted by higher wages and benefits offered by bigger employers, like Amazon and Wal-Mart, who continued to rake in the money as a result of on-line purchases and increased customer needs during the lockdowns.  Entry-level workers in service, hospitality and recreational sectors typically earned about $10 to $12 an hour.  These days, as noted by many small-business owners, anyone paying that rate risks losing workers to employers like Amazon where starting pay is $15 an hour.  On top of which, inflationary trends are on the increase.

Secondly, in the short-term with the quick opening of many businesses, it can be expected that employers will face a sudden increased demand for experienced workers.  This will probably force some businesses to offer higher wages in order to attract workers, which some have shown a reluctance to do so because of economic uncertainties.  Higher wages however have already benefited students who are looking for summer employment, especially in the recreational and tourism sectors.

Thirdly, the pandemic is anything but over.  In the U.S., an average of 15,000 new cases and more than 400 related deaths are being reported daily across the country.  Barely 40 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated.  Among those Americans receiving assistance, there are those who have underlying health conditions or have members of their families who are vulnerable to COVID-19.  Needless-to-say, these workers are reluctant to return to work under the current circumstances, especially where masks and physical distancing aren’t required at work.

Finally, women have been especially affected by the lost of employment in these sectors during the past year.  The biggest issue for those with families is the lack of affordable and safe child and elder care.  This was a pre-pandemic and will remain a major post-pandemic problem.

It’s unfortunate that Republicans have chosen to push their argument that pandemic jobless relief is hindering the U.S. recovery.  The crazy thing is that the balk of income and unemployment assistance is being paid for by the Feds.  Let’s face reality, there will be normal delays associated with reopening a mammoth economy.  It’s simply too soon to pressure individuals facing several obvious hurdles to obtain work at this time.  In their hurry to remove health-related restrictions and in the face of potential new variants, states and cities are risking the possibility of incurring a fourth wave of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations — this time primarily among younger people who appear hesitant to get vaccinated.  Will there be a consequent need for future lockdowns?  Let’s hope not!  Only time will tell.  In the meantime, these unfortunate people continue to need our help.

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Believe it or not, Donald Trump is still around!

Based on findings by Facebook’s Oversight Board, Facebook said it will suspend former U.S. president Donald Trump’s accounts — including Instagram — for two years.  The finding is that he stoked violence ahead of the deadly Jan. 6th insurrection.  On Facebook, Trump’s suspension has meant that his account is essentially in “Facebook jail,” which is a term that users use to describe when the social network bans people from posting or accessing their accounts.  Others can still read and comment on Trump’s past posts, but he and other account handlers are unable to post new material.  In a press release, Trump called Facebook’s decision “an insult.” “They shouldn’t be allowed to get away with this censoring and silencing, and ultimately, we will win. Our Country can’t take this abuse anymore!”  The two-year ban brings Trump back just in time for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, although too late to be of any real import.  In its decision last month, the board agreed with Facebook that two of Trump’s Jan. 6th posts “severely violated” the content standards of both Facebook and Instagram.

Trump in turn gave his first public address since leaving office at the North Carolina Republican Party convention on June 5th.  Of course, he came out blasting the current Biden administration for everything from immigration policies to foreign policy.  Attacks so soon after a change in administration are somewhat uncommon and unusual among former presidents.  However, Trump is anything but normal.  Trump reserved his early remarks on President Joe Biden, which he called “the most radical left-wing administration in history”.  The fact is that his administration provided little assistance to the incoming Biden administration during the transition period, thus hindering a smooth transition.  Trump further believes that the Republicans will take back the Senate, the House, and the White House sooner than most people think.  The former president waited more than an hour to once again advance falsehoods about the 2020 election, which he described as “the crime of the century”.  Of interest, both CNN and Fox News declined to carry the speech on their channels.

The former president has also claimed that vaccines would not yet have arrived in US without him, ignoring the fact that over 400,000 Americans had died from COVID-19 during his administration, and claiming initially that the pandemic was a “hoax”.  On top of which, he unrealistically called on China to pay $10 trillion in reparations to the United States and the world for China’s handling of the virus.  Good luck on that one!

Trump has pushed Republicans to support candidates who are loyal to him in next year’s midterm elections.  In next year’s fight for control of Congress, he further vowed to be an active presence on the campaign trail for those remaining Republicans who share his values.  In any potential run for the White House in 2024, he may yet have to go up against former vice-president Mike Pence who has publicly asserted that he does not see eye to eye with Donald Trump on the horrific events of January 6th on the Hill.  Don’t forget that Pence and his family had to flee for their lives from the pro-Trump mob.

While Trump remains a dominant force within his party, he however remains deeply unpopular among key segments of the broader electorate and elements of the Republican Party.  Remember that he lost the last election by 7 million votes, primarily as a result of alienating Republican-leaning suburban voters across the country.  Trump supporters still haven’t yet come to grips with this fact. 

President Trump Is Playing The Victim Role Once Again | FROLITICKS (wordpress.com)

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Split in Republican Party Worsens As Impeachment Trial Drags On

As it stands now, the Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump is for all intent and purpose over.  According to recent polls, the Democrats and those few Republican senators supporting a conviction have already won in the court of public opinion with a majority of those polled supporting Trump’s conviction higher than during the first impeachment.  While there are obviously not enough Republican senators to convict Trump, the damage from the January 6th riot at the Capitol continues increasingly to split the ranks of the GOP.  Those Republicans in Congress supporting Trump’s impeachment and the election of Joe Biden are now the target of several state and local Republican officials.  Since Trump left office, grassroots Republican activists and state parties have become his most vociferous defenders, often condemning and censuring elected Republicans who dare to deviate in any way from full support of the former president.  Whether or not one likes it, Trump remains the most popular national figure associated with the Republican Party.  State and local party organizations elect their own members and operate with considerable autonomy under the GOP system.  Many continue to believe that Trump was the voice for their agenda in D.C.  However, the reality is that Trump’s gang created his image and platform more than the GOP rank and file did.  Narcissist Trump simply used them and continues to do so after the election to support his nonsensical claim that the election had been stolen.

Now, you have dozens of former and current Republican officials who view the party as unwilling to stand up to Trump and his attempts to undermine U.S. democracy.  Apparently, some senior Republicans are even contemplating the formation of a center-right breakaway party.  As argued by certain party strategists, the problem is that the growing GOP split will undercut the party’s chances in the 2022 midterm elections to win House and Senate majorities.  As it stands right now, the possibility of quickly regaining party unity appears to be a long shot as long as Trump’s influence on the local and state GOP continues.  Many Republicans remain fiercely loyal to the former president, while exasperated others seek a new more centralized direction for the party back to its conservative roots.  Instead, they would run on a platform of “principled conservatism,” including adherence to the Constitution and the rule of law.  They feel that the party’s integrity is at stake and Republicans need to distance themselves from Trump’s influence.

Emotions are running high among both pro-Trump supporters and the anti-Trump faction of the party.  Trump not only inspired a mob to storm the Capitol, he also brought the Republican Party close to a breaking point.  Whether or not Trump is convicted and thereby unable to ever run again for the position of president, the damage is already done within the GOP.  There is no other way to describe the GOP’s internal squabbles but that of continued ‘fanaticism’ and ‘disfunctionalism’.  Moreover, millions of Republican voters are seeking no such separation from Mr. Trump.  The House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, many of his House colleagues and state lawmakers around the country continue to express support for Trump.  For the moment at least, they are far more loyal to their lame-duck president than to the traditional party leaders who preceded him.

As part of the impeachment process, the House is currently laying out a very convincing case against Trump, branding him the ‘Inciter in Chief’.  Interestingly, in the unlikely case that the Senate were to convict Mr. Trump — finding him guilty of “inciting violence against the government of the United States” — senators apparently could still vote on whether to bar him from holding future office. That vote would only require a simple majority.  If it came down to party lines, Democrats would prevail with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie breaking vote.  This could help the GOP to begin to renew its fractured party, but don’t count on it.  It may also cause more backlash among Trump’s supporters, while further widening the existing spit within the party.  All of this makes for great political debate in the coming months, much to the growing embarrassment and consternation of the Republican establishment. 

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Donald Trump: To Convict or Not to Convict?

Now that the House of Representatives has voted to impeach the president, the question on everyone’s mind is whether the Senate will hold a trial which could lead to Trump’s conviction for his role in inciting the riot on Capitol Hill on January 6th.  It has been reported that although Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, has privately told advisers that he approves of the impeachment drive and believes it could help his party purge itself of Mr. Trump, he refused to begin the proceedings this week while he is still in charge.  Despite having some support to convict among several Republican senators, the fact is that the Senate needs a two-third majority to convict.  Doing so would open the door to disqualifying Trump from holding office in the future.  The chances of this happening are very improbable.

The fact is that the Republican Party is still split over its support for Donald Trump and his populist movement.  Indeed, Trump has installed loyal supporters in all of the G.O.P.’s establishment bodies.  For example, since Trump’s 2016 victory, 91 of the 168 positions on the Republican Nationwide Committee have turned over, with nearly all the newcomers elected by Trump-aligned state events.  Several news headlines read: “Deep In the G.O.P. Ranks, the MAGA Mind-Set Prevails.”  It also appears that a vocal wing of the party maintains an almost-religious devotion to the president, and these supporters, especially at the state and local levels, don’t hold him responsible for the mob violence last week.

Unfortunately for the Republican Party, the schism between Trump supporters and the G.O.P. establishment will exist for some time to come.  Without a conviction by the Senate, Donald Trump will continue to hang around, along with his conspiracy theories.  A very recent Axios-Ipsos ballot following the Capitol riot confirmed that a majority of Republicans help the president’s latest habits and say he still ought to be the Republican nominee in 2024. In addition, many Trump supporters are clamoring to go after any of the Republican members of Congress who voted for impeachment or against the motion to investigate the voting results of the presidential election.  Some of those Republican members now even fear for their lives.

Various Republicans in Congress believe that proceeding with an impeachment trial in the Senate will only pour gasoline on the already raging fire among Trump supporters.  They believe that such a move will further divide the nation at a time when a new administration is being sworn in.  Given the volatility of the current situation, they may have a legitimate argument.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has discretion over when to transmit the article of impeachment sometime next week, formally initiating the Senate proceeding.  While this may be the right thing to do in light of the serious charges against Trump, the timing may not be good for the country.  The House members, including ten Republicans, have made their point and expression of justifiable outrage over the president’s actions leading up to and following the Capitol riot.  After all, his legacy now includes being the only American president to be impeached twice.  Proceeding to convict represents a greater threat to the G.O.P. than anyone else, and may only provide more ammunition to Trump loyalists to continue their fight within the party.  Hopefully, not literally!

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Following Capitol Hill Riot, Republican Party Is In Disarray

Despite what the Republican National Committee may say about its continuing support for Donald Trump, there is increasing evidence that the GOP is a very much more splintered group following the attempted coup at the Capitol by a pro-Trump mob.  This disarray extends to GOP members of Congress.  It is reported that the 127 who voted to overthrow president-elect Joe Biden’s electoral victory are facing fierce backlash from donors, constituents, and even some GOP colleagues. 

The party also faces a threat to its financial base.  Several of the most powerful and normally non-political business federations in Washington denounced the chaos this week in stinging language, including the National Association of Manufacturers, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable.  Several major business leaders voiced alarm at the threat it posed to a democracy which most Americans had taken for granted and at the role of these rogue Republican lawmakers. 

Then there are the evangelicals who represent roughly one quarter of Americans and who supported Trump and the GOP for their pro-religion views.  White evangelicals embraced the president, some begrudgingly and some enthusiastically, because he addressed many of their concerns.  Now, they are talking about finally witnessing an evangelical reckoning and the about the dangers of Trumpism.  A lot of introspection is happening among evangelicals.

There is clearly a conundrum wherein the GOP finds itself beholden to voters who’ve internalized the president’s falsehoods and were emboldened by Trump’s divisive speak.  There is little doubt that a schism exists among Trump’s supporters which may be hard to quickly mend.  In one report shortly after the Capitol assault, a veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz carried out a spotlight group composed of a few Trump voters from different states.  In it, he stated that they fell into three camps:

  • those who consider the truth that President-elect Joe Biden won the election and believe that it’s time for Trump move on;
  • those who believe that the election was stolen from Trump, but he nonetheless ought to move on; and
  • those who insist it was stolen and Trump ought to continue to struggle in some way.

Rep. Nancy Mace, a newly elected Republican freshman from South Carolina and a strong past supporter of Trump, openly declared in the media: “That legacy has now been wiped out,” Mace stated. “It is gone, and we have to start over from scratch.”  Whether the president is impeached or censured, the fact is that significant damage has been done to the Republican Party.  It would appear that Trump supporters and GOP members of Congress are ready to declare war with each other.  The best thing for the future of the GOP is for Trump and his legacy to quietly fade away into the abyss.  As long as Trump has any future involvement with the party, there will continue to be even more destructive disarray.  His ties to the party need to be cut ASAP.  Otherwise, the internal healing can’t start soon enough for most Republican supporters!

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