FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Oct 23

How Trump Continues to Denigrate Congress in His Push for Power

by bcurry

No one should be surprised as to how Congress, and in particular the Senate, have once again been denigrated by President Trump.  This was attempted in Trump’s first term, but not to the extent as witnessed to date under his second term in office.  If you don’t believe me, you might want to read The Betrayal by Ira Shapiro.  The author outlines in detail how Mitch McConnell, then the Senate majority leader, and the Senate Republicans gave into many of Trump’s policy demands during his first term.  Several episodes took place during the impeachment hearings against Trump at that time and during the selection and confirmation of Supreme Court judges, including Brett Kavanaugh.  Even the January 6, 2021, insurrection and mob attack on the Capital by Trump supporters did not cause the Republicans, who were outraged at the time like many Americans, to subsequently reduce their support for Trump.  Remember that on January 20, 2025, upon taking office, Trump granted clemency to all January 6 rioters, including those convicted of violent offences.  This even angered several Trump law and order supporters in the Republican Party, but most refused to comment publicly on the matter.

Supposedly, it is Congress that controls the government’s purse strings.  However, what is actually happening is that a Republican controlled Congress is simply rubber stamping Trump’s policies.  With the current federal government shutdown, the Trump administration has taken the opportunity to shift billions of dollars around to take care of its priorities during the shutdown with scant input from lawmakers.  Trump is once again ignoring Congress’s clear constitutional supremacy over the power of the purse.  Congressional Republicans have also been mainly silent as Trump has unilaterally imposed and threatened tariffs to achieve his own strategic, political and economic goals.  Despite the fact that the Constitution gives Congress chief responsibility for levying tariffs, the Republicans appear willing to simply wait until several cases against the tariffs are reviewed by the Supreme Court, which could take months.

The Trump administration most recently has taken upon itself to authorize the drone bombing of boats in international waters off both the Pacific coast and in Caribbean waters off the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, alleging that they are drug smugglers.  Whether they are or not is not the issue.  The issue is whether such actions are legal or not under international laws of the seas and one which would normally need the consent of Congress.  These are not police operations, but are clearly extraterritorial military operations which could be deemed as hostile by the affected countries whose dozens of citizens have already been killed.

Only a few days ago, Trump appeared more willing to restrain Moscow in its war on Ukraine.  Once again sidestepping Congress, his administration announced new penalties on Russia.  However, Congress has always pressed for even more stringent measures against Russia.

These are only a few examples of how the current Trump administration is obviously attempting to enhance the powers of the president.  Democrats have been largely steamrolled by Trump and his Republican allies all year.  Democrats have had to rely on the courts to hold the line against illegal actions by the White House, a hope that has so far met with mixed success.  The matter is further exemplified by the fact that the Republican leaders themselves have made it quite clear that they view their role as subordinate to the president, saying they won’t open talks with their Democratic counterparts unless Trump allows them to do so. 

Nevertheless, one will find lawmakers in both parties who worry that the steady erosion of congressional prerogative they are witnessing daily could inflict permanent damage on the institution at the forefront of representative government.  All one can ask at this point in time is whether or not the damage has been done and whether this blatant acquisition of power and influence by Trump can be reversed in the future?  America needs to reinstate the constitution’s checks and balances critical to its democracy, or potentially face a more authoritarian future.

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Sep 18

Free Speech is on the Decline in America

by bcurry

Political satire has long been considered one of the gems reflecting the strength of free speech in America.  However, recently, freedom of expression has taken a hit in the entertainment industry, as exemplified by the cancellation by networks of two popular late-night talk shows.  I am of course referring to The Late Show With Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel Live.  Both shows have been signalled out by the Donald Trump and his administration.

Let’s first begin by pointing out that the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is a political appointee.  Trump nominated Brendan Carr for FCC chairman in November 2025, obviously someone trusted by the president.  The FCC is supposed to be an independent body overseeing licensed media sources in the U.S., primarily regulating the industry and ensuring certain prescribed activities are followed under its purview.  The FCC also oversees the rules governing how much of a sector a private company can obtain in order to prevent any one company from monopolizing the output of a media source — be it television or radio for example.  For this reason, the FCC wields power over the broadcast licenses that are granted to local TV stations by the federal government and the merger of companies running specific media sources.

Paramount Global’s pending sale to Skydance Media needed the Trump administration’s approval (i.e. FCC).  It just so happened that Paramount Global, the parent company of CBS, settled a recent lawsuit with Trump over a 60 Minutes interview involving Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.  In Stephen Colbert’s subsequent monologue, he said he was “offended” by the $16-million U.S. settlement.  In addition, Colbert has targeted Trump for years.  From 2005 to 2014, The Colbert Report aired a satirical riff on right-wing news talk shows, especially Trump’s favourite Fox News.  Paramount and CBS executives claimed in a statement that the cancellation was purely a financial decision against a challenging backdrop in late night television, noting that it was not related in any way to the show’s performance, content or other matters happening at Paramount.  Something difficult to believe given that Colbert’s award winning show was ranked in the most recent ratings from Nielsen as the best late-night show and the only one to gain viewers so far this year.

Shortly after Carr’s criticism on Fox News of Kimmel’s remarks in a podcast about MAGA and the assassination of Conservative activist Charlie Kirk, Nexstar, an owner of ABC affiliate stations around the country, pre-empted Mr. Kimmel’s program for the foreseeable future.  Of note, Nexstar recently announced that it planned to acquire a rival company in a $6.2 billion deal, which has to be scrutinized by the F.C.C.  According to the New York Times, Chuck Schumer, opposition Democratic leader in the U.S. Senate, denounced on CNN the pressure on ABC from the Trump administration as “despicable, disgusting, and against democratic values.”  He compared it to the playbook of autocratic Chinese and Russian leaders, noting that Trump and his allies seem to want to shut down speech that they don’t like to hear.  It certainly would appear, given Carr’s public outbursts, that the FCC is being used to do just that.

Now, the life of television and radio shows normally rely on the free enterprise market as it relates to corporate sponsors and their marketing through ads on popular shows.  This is fine given that there is a good deal of healthy competition within varying media.  People’s interest in and following of media outlets is what rightfully determines a show’s success.  However, as in the print news media, we see today increasing interference by leaders in trying to influence the programming and content of shows, especially those involving political satire and editorial opinion.  The power of the FCC to regulate the industry is obviously being abused by the current administration.  Once again, this is clearly another attack on the right to free speech as provided for under the U.S. constitution. 

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Dec 7

New Political and Social-Economic Realm of Diversity in America

by bcurry

Back in March of this year, the Biden administration ordered changes to a range of federal surveys to gather more detailed information about the nation’s ethnic and racial makeup.  Why is this important?  For example, most people of Middle Eastern and North African descent reportedly are currently classified as “white” in U.S. census data.  According to the Census Bureau estimates, this represented about 3.5 million people falling into that category.  They represent for example people whose descent is Lebanese, Egyptian, Iranian, Syrian, Iraqi, and Israeli.  Under the new format, people of Middle Eastern and North African descent will have their own category.  Officials of the Office of Management and Budget, which oversaw the review of the current survey questions, said the changes were needed in part to make surveys more accurate.

The reason more accurate surveys are increasingly important is that America is increasing becoming more diverse.  The non-white population has nearly doubled since 1990 to over 40% in 2023, as the proportion of non-Hispanic whites decreased from 75% to 58%.  According to the USAFacts Team, the nation’s non-white population has almost doubled over the past four decades, growing from about 24% of the population in 1990 to over 40% in 2023.  Furthermore, according to the US Census Bureau, the multiracial population is projected to be the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group over the next four decades, followed by the Asian or Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations.  The non-Hispanic white population is expected to continue shrinking.

The above announced changes most likely have the potential to rankle conservatives who believe that the nation’s focus on diversity has already gone too far.  Interestingly, both the Republicans and Democrats during the recent election attempted vigorously to cater to Blacks, Latinos and Hispanics to have their votes which were deemed critical in several states.  This time around, the Trump campaign notably targeted those communities with diverse populations.  In many cases, the non-White populace was just as concerned about the economy and immigration as many of his White supporters.  Something that the Democratic Party failed to fully realize during its campaign — a startling factor given Pamela Harris being a Black candidate.

Now one has to ask is whether Donald Trump will allocate more positions in his cabinet to better reflect the nation’s diversity?  So far, the answer appears to be a resounding “no”.  Specifically selecting people from such bodies as Fox News certainly doesn’t help.  He may have to go outside his comfort zone!  In addition, federal policies will have to better reflect the importance of diverse populations.  Those who broadly support the new survey questions — academics, civil liberties advocates and racial and ethnic interest groups among them — say they would help promote greater fairness in schools, housing, hiring and other aspects of society where census data is used.  I’m not so sure that Trump’s immediate advisory body, made up mainly of rich White men, is going to facilitate appropriately dealing with such issues.

Favouring one group over another will lead to even more division within the country.  Hopefully, the Republicans in Congress will appreciate this matter in their deliberations.  Many marginalized groups are made up of persons from diverse communities, and are affected particularly hard by any reduction in socio-economic benefit programs.  Such policies would no doubt lead to increased hardships for these people.  Cutting such programs in the name of “efficiency” should not be an option in these dire times, accentuated by growing poverty, homelessness and inadequate medical care.  One has to question what Trump means when he proposes to make America great again?  Just who will actually benefit?

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Nov 21

Angry Young Males Revolt In America

by bcurry

Back in 2013, I read a very interesting book by Michael S. Kimmel entitled: “Angry White Men: American Masculinity at the End of an Era.”  In it, he described an increase in anger in the seismic economic, social and political shifts that have so transformed the American landscape among young white men.  Downward mobility, increased racial and gender equality, and a tenacious clinging to an anachronistic ideology of masculinity left many white men feeling betrayed and bewildered.  “Angry white male” is a term for white men holding conservative or right-wing views. Today, the term is often used when talking about the politics of the U.S. The term mostly refers to a group which emerged in the early 1990s. They reacted to what they thought were injustices created by “affirmative action.”  An angry white male is opposed to anti-discrimination policies (such as affirmative action) that benefit racial minorities and women.  Supporters of Donald Trump are sometimes said to largely include angry white men.  Today, one might add young Black and Hispanic men to their numbers, especially now that affirmative action is no longer in play.

Back in the 1960s, when activists pushed for laws to equalize opportunities for women, girls had been much less likely than boys to graduate from college.  However, a recent study indicated that by 2015, the situation had flipped.  Boys were much less likely than girls to make it through college and reap the premium jobs that came with degrees.  Young men were not just getting lower-paying jobs than young women, they were also more likely to leave the job market altogether.  This left many of them living with their parents and gave them lots of free time to spend on video games and in chat rooms.  One research team looked at national time-use surveys and found that young men between the ages of twenty-one and thirty spent 12 percent less time on paid work in 2015 than they had ten years earlier — a much sharper drop than was seen in any other demographic group. The newly freed-up time was spent largely in front of a computer.  The amount of time that men under thirty dedicated to video games and “recreational computer time” rose to 520 hours a year in 2015, 99 hours more than what it had been ten years earlier; a significantly greater amount of time and a sharper increase than was seen among older men and women of all ages.1

Even when it comes to investing and playing the markets on-line, young men dominate the scene, preferring to gamble in day trading in order to possibly become wealthier as well as clearly attaining a high out of risk-taking.  Normally, these men are between 20 and 30 years old and live at home with a lot of time on their hands.2  This phenomenon was particularly exasperated by the pandemic, which also continued to have negative impacts on men with respect to  the post-pandemic labour market and low wages.

The results of the American elections illustrated a clear statistical divide between more educated males and lesser educated males, with the majority of the prior supporting Kamala Harris and the latter Donald Trump.  In particular, young men in the so-call working and middle classes are unhappy with the way the economy has gone for them.  They are also still angered over what they perceive to be as unfair and unequal treatment when it comes to women, whether real or not.  This placed Harris at a clear disadvantage during the election when Democrats obviously failed to address the issue.  The Republicans used conservative social media effectively to appeal to the grievances of young working, unemployed and underemployed men.  Policies pushed by the Democrats, including reproductive rights and gender-based ones, did not appeal to most young men.

Canada is not immune to the lure of conservative policies which tend to attract young Canadian males to their political thinking, all of which will have a direct impact in the federal election expected to happen next year.  Unless there is a drastic change in the economy and labour market, one can expect a similar backlash against the current Liberal government whose social policies will no doubt be a major target by conservative groups.

1. Richard V. Reeves and Ember Smith: “Boys Left Behind: Education Gender Gaps Across the US” (The Brooking Institution, October 12, 2022)  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/boys-left-behind-education-gender-gaps-across-the-us/.

2. ”The Trolls of Wall Street (How the Outcasts and Insurgents are Hacking the Markets)”: Nathaniel Popper (HarperCollins Publishers, New York, N.Y., 2024) p. 53

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Aug 12

The Comedy Hour In American Politics

by bcurry

Let’s get serious.  Anyone watching the American political scene now must be scratching their heads!  Since President Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris became the Democrat’s presidential candidate, a relatively chaotic situation has emerged.  Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have completely gone off the rails.  In an obvious defensive posture, their attacks on both Harris and her V.P. selection, Tim Walz, have become ludicrous.  Any outside observer like myself can only laugh at some of the things emerging from the two Republican candidates.  Nothing really surprising about Trump and mini-Trump Vance!  Their accusations should become good fodder for the likes of Saturday Night Live.  Moreover, thankfully we have nothing comparable in Canada
at this time.

It all began with Trump questioning whether Harris is actually Black.  Of course, he had originally questioned whether or not former President Obama was actually born in the U.S. Vance then attacks Time Walz over his twenty-four years of military service.  Since when does one veteran attack another veteran over his service to the country?  Then you have Trump declaring that Harris in not “intelligent” enough to run the country.  As if Trump should talk about someone’s intelligence!  Vance’s comments suggesting that Democrat’s are “anti-child” tells one more about his state of mind than anything else.  Expect more name-calling and nonsense from both Trump and Vance.

The fact of the matter is that Kamala Harris has demonstrated that she can be a good campaigner.  She has reinvigorated the Democratic Party and now has a great start to the finish, which the polls and the huge increase in campaign donations have demonstrated.  The emergence of Harris is just what the U.S. presidential campaign needed.  Her crowds and momentum just keep going.  One now has a real race and a real choice.  Trump is now the old guy running on the same old same old ticket.  I can’t wait until the upcoming debates.  Everything indicates that Trump and his Republican Party are in real trouble.  This will no doubt lead to more of Trump’s extreme rhetoric and more and more lies.  Nothing will surprise me.  Unfortunately, this may no longer be a laughing matter. Too much is at stake for not only the U.S.
and democracy, but also for the rest of the free world.

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Mar 6

The Kingmakers: How Corporate Elites Work to Re-elect President Trump

by bcurry

Now that Donald Trump has garnered the Republican candidacy for the Presidential election next November, you can be sure that a number of the corporate elite will be lining up to support him and help fund his campaign.  After all, Trump believes that he is one of them.  Remember, that both Hitler and Mussolini garnered the support of the corporate elite respectively in Germany and Italy to help overthrow their existing democratic regimes in order to push forward their agenda and solidify their places among the wealthiest in each nation.  Both average Germans and Italians, like many Americans today, were upset with the current economic state.   Once in charge, those same elites worked with each dictator to build up the military-industrial complexes, much like what Putin has been doing and continues to do in Russia today.

Trump’s efforts to garner corporate support is already underway as witnessed by the recent reported meetings whereby he is urgently seeking a cash infusion to aid his presidential campaign.  These took place with the likes of Elon Musk, one of the world’s richest men, and a number of wealthy Republican donors.  Furthermore, now that Nikki Haley has withdrawn from the presidential campaign, it will be interesting to see whether the conservative billionaire Koch brothers will back Trump during his campaign.  The Koch brothers founded and fund the Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP), a libertarian conservative political policy body.  Initially, the AFP, which fuels the most powerful donor network in conservative politics, had declared itself as part of the NeverTrump effort for 2024, aiming to deny former President Donald Trump a third nomination for the White House.  Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether the Koch brothers will continue to take this position.

In addition, Nikki Haley was probably not the corporate elites’ most preferable candidate. Instead, like Musk, they would have preferred Florida Governor Ron Desantis as their candidate given his similar extreme right-wing political positions to those of Trump.  However, Desantis had a weak campaign and did not live up to the expectations of many of the corporate elite and those in the Republican Party.  The tide swung quickly in favour of Nikki Haley as a possible alternative to Trump, although unfortunately somewhat weak at the outset.

The corporate elite know that despite all the current indictments against Trump and his continuing denial of the results of the last presidential election, his hard-core MAGA base will continue to support him regardless.  Noteworthy, “The Daily Show” correspondent Jordan Klepper couldn’t recently hide his frustration with Nikki Haley supporters who fiercely condemned Trump but then, in the same interview, admitted they’ll still probably vote for the former president when he takes on President Joe Biden in November.

There appears to be too much at stake for corporate America not to support Trump.  After all he supports the fossil fuels sector, denying the impact of climate change; he believes in an “American First” policy at the expense of international trade agreements; he wants to build up America’s nuclear arsenal and speed up the military-based space race; he would never introduce new tax measures aimed at high-income earners or any new capital gains taxation; once again reduce the abilities of federal regulatory agencies such as the EPA and IRA; and he would increase further access to federal lands and waters for mineral exploration.

It was just a matter of time before we witnessed the “kingmakers” coming out of the woods, SuperPacs and all.  While a few corporate elites may support Biden, the majority like Elon Musk will most likely support and fund Trump.  It’s quite simple, the so-called “haves” want to keep what they have without paying their fair share.  After all, they are the kingmakers, and neither you nor anyone else can change that.  Just ask the German and Italian descendents of earlier insidious times!

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Jan 4

Strange Situation In Republican Primaries For Their Presidential Nominee

by bcurry

As a Canadian political observer, there is little doubt that the current situation south of the border involving the Republican Party (GOP) and their selection of a presidential candidate to run in the election later this year is all very strange.  You have former President Donald Trump who is currently under indictment in four different civil and criminal cases.  Despite this, the majority of GOP supporters continue to back Trump, with the polls showing that he is still leading the other GOP candidates by a substantial margin.  Trump’s primaries’ platform to date has reflected his desire for “personal retribution” against those who opposed him following his failure to get re-elected in 2020, and to implement an “autocratic” regime.

In addition, one of the indictments pertains to the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by a violent mob and Trump’s alleged role in the conspiracy to keep himself in power by overturning the election results.  Recently, both Maine and Colorado had decisions to throw Trump off the ballot over 14th Amendment’s ban on “insurrectionists”.  Given this unprecedented situation, Trump is expected to appeal and both cases are likely to end up at the U.S. Supreme Court.  On top of which, Trump’s main GOP primary rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have declined to attack Trump with regards to any of the indictments for fear of upsetting Trump’s GOP base and thereby loosing their potential support.

Given his apparent continuing political support among the MAGA Republicans, Trump has declined to even participate in the recent candidate debates, something unheard of in Canadian politics.  When leadership conventions are held in Canada, current party leaders or aspiring party members to lead the party are required to present their platforms in front of party members as part of the voting at the party convention.  As well, open candidate debates are held prior to the leadership convention.  In the case of Trump, the other candidates are at a disadvantage since they cannot debate him in an open forum, subsequently being left to mainly attack each other in his absence.  Trump, on the other hand, has simply continued to carry out his usual style of campaigning in public and through media coverage, openly attacking his GOP rivals in his traditional style of vicious name calling and spiteful insinuations about their character.

What is even crazier, a new poll recently taken by the Washington Post with the University of Maryland indicated that MAGA has not only stuck with Trump on the questions of January 6th, but a few who even believed that he might have done something wrong at the time have now come back to his side.  Still, they apparently aren’t many.  However, Republicans loved Trump then and they appear to continue to love him now.  Nevertheless, there is little doubt that should Trump be convicted of a criminal indictment, the majority of American voters nationally, especially independents, would choose President Biden over Trump in the next presidential election.  On the other hand, polls indicate that Republicans don’t seem to care.  They’re even starting to warm to the idea of Trump serving from a jail cell, which legal experts believe is constitutionally possible.  This result would really be bewildering to say the least!

For this reason, NBC News reported in December 2023 that Trump’s campaign believes the January 6th trial was specifically timed to take him off the campaign trail at a crucial stage. They further believe that they can outsmart the prosecutors by wrapping up the primaries early.  At this time, much is up in the air when it comes to trial dates surrounding the indictments.  Observers also correctly believe that Trump doesn’t want the particular January 6th trial to happen anytime soon.  It’s pretty much self-evident that he really doesn’t want to be convicted, despite his lawyers’ assurances about an appeal.  Obviously, they further believe that should he win the election, Trump would simply pardon himself and be done with it.

Anyone, including myself, watching this “circus” from afar is left scratching their heads.  Democracy had taken a serious beating in light of Donald Trump’s ridiculous accusations that the 2020 presidential election was stolen by Joe Biden.  His continuing attacks on the judicial and democratic processes in public forum, culminating in the terrible attack on the Capitol, have resulted in major blows to the state of American democracy.  His disposition for autocratic leanings is of great concern to other democracies, including that in Canada.  In the coming months, Canadians need to more closely watch the strange situation flowing from the GOP primaries.  One way or another, the results will affect us all!

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Oct 6

Speakers of U.S. House of Representatives and Canada’s House of Commons Resign

by bcurry

Two interesting events happened in the last couple of weeks.  Both speakers of a Congressional and a Parliamentary body were forced to resign in unprecedented ways. 

On September 26th, Anthony Rota stepped down as House of Commons Speaker after inviting a former Ukrainian soldier who fought in a Nazi division to Canada’s Parliament during the recent visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who delivered an address in the House of Commons.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it clear that the Speaker’s mistake was deeply embarrassing for the House, Canada and the Ukraine.  Rota, a Liberal Party Member of Parliament, was pressured by his party and members of the opposition to immediately resign, something very rare in Canada’s parliamentary history.

In the U.S., the House of Representatives voted on October 3rd to oust Kevin McCarthy, a, a vivid rebuke of his leadership and an escalation of the civil strife within the Republican Party.  The so-called band of eight Republicans who rejected McCarthy, most of whom are Republican Party member, as Speaker of the House.  It was the first such removal in American history members of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, were opposed by 210 of their fellow GOP representatives, all of whom voted to keep the Speaker in place.  McCarthy had aligned with the Democrats in the House to pass legislation allowing the government to continue operating until next November, thus preventing an imminent shutdown of federal government services and much of its employee compensation.  What is particularly disconcerting is the current provision which allows any one Representative to call a vote in order to replace a sitting Speaker, as was done in this case by Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida.

In the case of the Canadian Parliament, the Speaker’s resignation was unfortunate but was quickly resolved through the quick selection and appointment this week by House members of a new Speaker, one Greg Fergus who became Canada’s first Black Canadian Speaker of the House of Commons.  His independent role as Speaker, although he is a Liberal Party Member of Parliament, is to maintain order in the House and direct the daily operations of his office.

On the other hand, the House of Representatives has yet to select a new Speaker from the majority Republican Party.  The Speaker’s removal has only deepened the body’s dysfunction, leaving the House rudderless so-to-speak, and with no clear path to effective leadership.  Although a government shutdown was narrowly avoided over the past weekend, another looms next month.  Future assistance to Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion is also at stake.  McCarthy has declared that he will not run again for the position and has not endorsed a would-be successor, leaving Republicans to scramble to find a viable candidate.  There are a lot of concerns among experts about the actions of the fringe elements of both parties, and their potential negative impact on the House functioning and the possibility for compromise agreements as to budgets and the functioning of the state.  They have pointed to the troubled tenures of previous Republican speakers of the House such as John A. Boehner and Paul D. Ryan, both of whom struggled with stiff resistance from their right flank.  Indeed, a fundamental role of the House Speaker is to attempt to pursue conciliatory measures between the two parties through negotiations and on-going discussions.  Unfortunately, it appears that the parties themselves have grown weaker because they are increasingly controlled by those on the fringes, as exemplified in this case.  Moderates in both parties have expressed their concerns, but apparently to no avail. 

The increasing failure of Congress to function in an orderly fashion and to represent the interests of all Americans has placed democracy in a dangerous situation.  The on-going haphazard saga of the annual Congressional budgetary review and votes is clearly unworkable under these circumstances.  The sooner that the House can select a new Speaker, the sooner the House can hopefully get back to democratic governance.  Let’s hope for the sake of all Americans and democracy that this will happen in a quick and sensible manner!

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Sep 7

What’s Going On With All These Pollsters?

by bcurry

Pick up any newspaper today or read news articles online, and you can’t avoid seeing the most recent polls concerning the U.S. presidential primaries or the standings of federal political parties and their leaders in Canada.  The most interesting polls of course have to do with the potential impact of the recent indictments against former President Donald Trump.

However, support for Trump, may obscure a still varied Republican electorate. To better understand the party today, one pollster split Republican and Republican-leaning voters into groups, based on the results of its Times/Siena poll. The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump.  The results depict a Republican coalition that consists of different six groups.  Their support for Trump varies accordingly.

According to a poll commissioned by POLITICO Magazine and conducted by Ipsos in June, roughly half of the country believes that Trump committed the crimes alleged against him.  What should happen to Trump if he gets convicted?  The poll’s results show that forty-three percent said he should go to prison, but most were willing to spare him jail time.  Nearly a quarter of respondents said that Trump should incur no punishment at all (22 percent), while 18 percent said he should receive probation and another 17 percent said he should face only a financial penalty.  Interestingly, roughly one-third of respondents said that they are not particularly familiar with the allegations in the indictment cases.

Nationally, recent polls indicate that support for President Biden and Trump is about evenly split.  However, analysts note that should Trump win the Republican primaries, he would most likely loose to Biden. This despite voter concerns over Biden’s age and his low approval ratings.

In Canada, the political drama is far less evident than in the U.S.  Recent polls show that the current leader of the federal Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has pulled ahead of Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.  Moreover, an Ipsos poll in December 2022 indicated that nearly half of Canadians want there to be a federal election in 2023, although the official deadline for the next federal election is 2025.  In addition, the poll indicated that, after over eight years in office, a slim majority of those polled are hoping one politician won’t be running in the next election: Prime Minister Trudeau.  Fifty-four percent of those polled said Trudeau should step down as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2023, although just 27 percent said they actually believe he’ll do so.  The Prime Minister’s approval rating has been coming down when compared to Poilievre’s.  However, with an election still potentially two years away, anything can happen as indicated by recent polls, and much will depend on the regional distribution of votes.

Polls are powerful – they can influence emotions and shape political fortunes. They can be used to drum up support for campaigns and reveal how closely aligned (or far apart) the general public is on consequential presidential or prime ministerial policies.  Recent national elections have reminded us how problematic it is when we think of polls as forecasts of the future rather than a glimpse at where people stand at a given moment in time.  Also, not all polls include a margin of error, including non-probability polls such as those you can opt into online.  According to Pew Research Center, participants for these polls self-select, or opt in, and there is a risk that “these samples will not resemble the larger population”.

Polling is a huge industry.  All political parties and many third-parties, including media sources, use polls to get an idea where the voters stand on certain issues and how much support is out there for parties’ platforms.  Past history has shown that the closer one gets to an election date, the more accurate certain polling can begun.  Unfortunately, polls released just prior to that date can potentially influence the way in which certain voters, especially the undecideds, may consider voting.  After all, everyone prefers to support a potential winner, notably if they are voting as independents.  Prior to the next American and Canadian elections, I’d be closely watching the potential impact of polling and whether the results reflect the final outcome of the election.

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Aug 9

Political Polarizations Has Increased Mistrust in Many of Our Public Institutions

by bcurry

The New York Times in a very recent article (August 7th) notes that Republican (G.O.P.) contenders in the presidential primaries are bent on feeding voter distrust in public institutions such as the courts, schools and the military.  Obviously, most appear to be following the lead of Donald Trump who, for example whenever he has the chance, publicly attacks the U.S. Justice Department and the F.B.I.  During the pandemic Trump even disparaged the Surgeon General, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Resources.  Now, facing a barrage of indictments by the Justice Department, Trump has further accelerated his personal attacks on these major institutions.  Unfortunately, several other G.O.P. candidates have followed suit in an apparent attempt to appease Trump’s core followers.

All of the rhetoric, including that disseminated by social media and right-wing media, has created an environment where recent polls show that Americans’ trust in their institutions has apparently fallen to historical lows.  Feeding on voters’ already deeply embedded scepticism might have once been seen as politically risky, but social media and the right-wing media have helped change that.  The Republican governor of Florida and a candidate, Ron DeSantis, has led the charge against what he sees as a biased and liberal-influenced education system in his state.  Not to be outdone, another G.O.P. candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has gone on record that he would shut down the F.B.I. and the I.R.S. as part of his fight against the so-called “deep state”.

My primary question is what would replace all these important institutions in a democracy that claims to need independent bodies to deal with issues like law and order, public health, the environment, new technologies and the role of the military?  In a modern society, freedoms are important, but there still has to be some oversight of those matters as they relate to the public good.  Campaign rhetoric perpetuating conspiratorial themes does not help to ensure a rational and knowledge-based debate on many of the challenges that, as a democracy, we face daily.  It’s easy to argue that things should be eliminated, but no one Republican has yet rationally put forward any ideas about how one would go about replacing these institutions — and with what.

The Republican Party, just as the Conservative Party in Canada, has long stood for “smaller government in size and role” going back to the days of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.   However, the current G.O.P. extreme rhetoric goes far beyond the past political stances of Republican presidents, from Richard Nixon to the Bushes.  As the Times article notes: “The proliferation of attacks has alarmed both Republicans and Democrats who worry about the long-term impact on American democracy.  Public confidence in core institutions — from the justice system to voting systems — is fundamental to a durable democracy, particularly at a time of sharp political division.”

Just as I am certain that there are a good number of moderate Republicans in the U.S. and conservatives in Canada who oppose such extreme rhetoric, I am hoping that cooler heads will prevail among our electorates in both countries.  Our democracies are closely watched by countries around the world, and defending our democratic institutions has never been more important in the face of the growth of autocratic regimes globally.  These institutions are essential to defending our democratic values and promoting the public good.  We need to strengthen them rather than knock them down as the result of excessive political polarization.  It’s one thing to push for smaller government influence in our lives, it’s another to suggest that one can simply eliminate or emasculate its influence in highly complex modern societies.  Doing so would just replace democracies with autocracies by centralizing political and economic powers under one regime.  We now have checks and balances, including the courts and justice system, to prevent this from happening.  Unfortunately, the Republicans appear more than willing to minimize such oversight.  Ultimately, the current split in their party, led by Donald Trump’s extremism, could greatly weaken their platform in the eyes of the American electorate, and particularly those of independents.

Donald Trump Judicial System Media Populism Populism in Canada Republican Party Social Media US Politics

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