FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Aug 31

Trump’s Trade War With China Can Only Increase Global Economic Concerns

by bcurry

President Donald Trump wants to move ahead with a plan to impose additional tariffs worth US$200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as a public-comment period concludes on September 6th.  The action is likely to further unnerve financial markets that have been concerned about the growing tensions. Stocks fell on the news, with the S&P 500 testing the key 2,900 level. The offshore yuan dropped to a new low, while the dollar and the yen gained amid a flight to safety. As in the case of the earlier imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, the proposed tariffs are bound to affect other countries. The tariff news exacerbated already fragile market sentiment amid currency routs in Argentina and Turkey. In addition, American consumers will feel the effects in the form of more expensive manufactured and other goods imported from China.

Yes, while there are some concerns about China’s trade policies in the past, copyright infringements on some products, and restrictions on foreign investment in the country, I’m not sure that Trump’s negotiating tactics are necessarily the best way to deal with these issues. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it very clear that China will not be bullied into any trade agreement with the U.S.  In addition, the full impact of a trade war has yet to happen in the U.S.  How many sectors and industries will the administration have to provide public funds to offset the economic impact, as was done recently in the agricultural sector?  Who pays for this?

China, like Russia and some other countries, is already moving away from using the American dollar as a primary currency used in foreign trade. As well, China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the U.S. to sell its products, can take the hit much better than the U.S.  This is especially true as the U.S. has started trade disputes on several fronts at the same time, such as with Europe and Canada.  Most of China’s products imported to the States, and there are many of them, still won’t have any tariffs on them at this time.  Many American businesses depend heavily on global supply chains, such as China, in order to remain competitive and viable.

Since Donald Trump’s election, the Chinese, including its banks, had made earlier concessions of foreign investment and the lowering of tariffs on imported cars. It would appear that a thoughtful, reciprocal and incremental approach to trade negotiations would have made more sense for all concerned.  Instead, we have an American President who says that “trade wars are good”. I’m not so sure.  Are you?

China Foreign Policy Protectionist Trade Policies US

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Aug 17

Mid Summer Madness of the Trump Regime – Summer of 2018

by bcurry

In recent months, actions and tweets by President Trump have become even more erratic and unpredictable than usual. His bizarre behaviour may lead some people to believe that he is suffering from heat stroke.  Let’s review what he’s been up to this past summer:

  • As a reprisal against Turkey for jailing one lone American citizen, the S. levied harsh sanctions against this NATO ally which threaten the derail that country’s economy or drive Turkey into Vladimir Putin’s circle of influence.
  • The President said local politicians “wanted a number so ridiculously high”, around $92 Million, that he canceled a planned military parade that the Pentagon had already postponed until next year. He blamed Washington officials for inflating expected costs for an unwanted parade.
  • Trump revoked former national security advisor John Brennan’s security clearance, which may be the latest sign that the president is determined to punish anyone connected to the Russia investigation. Kind of reminds one of the Richard Nixon days and the political “revenge” factor.
  • The President referred to one of his former White House staff, Amarosa Manigault Newman, as being a “dog”, in anticipation of her soon to be released book, “Unhinged”. His office also denied unconvincingly that he had never used the “N” word, a charge made by Ms. Manigault Newman.
  • He has threatened to impose tariffs on automobiles assembled abroad and on automotive parts, something that the auto industry has warned would cause all kinds of havoc and productivity losses.
  • His administration has threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods, causing major problems for U.S. supply retail and manufacturing chains.
  • Over 300 news media have issued a statement that the continued reference to “fake news” by the President is threatening to undermine the freedom of the press.
  • Etc., etc.

Yes Mr. President, it’s been a hot summer. Your administration is in constant turmoil with contradictions and outright lies flying everywhere — signs of continuing disarray. Unfortunately, when the U.S. sneezes, most other countries tend to catch a cold. The state of the world economy and politics is at stake.  Maybe it’s time to get off the ongoing campaign trail and act more Presidential.  Every tweet and personal attack now causes further consternation and disdain among Americans and allies abroad.

The summer is coming to an end, and one can only hope that the fall will bring better things. The big question is whether the November elections will bring a gust of fresh air.  It’s time for Americans to respond and support democracy by voting.  Let’s hope that common sense prevails, and the President stops acting like a mini-Musollini.

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Jul 26

If Tariffs Are “So Great”, How Come Trump Appears To Be Backing Off?

by bcurry

President Donald Trump backed off his threat to levy tariffs on cars imported to the U.S. from the E.U. during a recent meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. It appears that Trump had warned that he would move forward with 25 percent tariffs on auto imports if the meeting with Juncker didn’t go well, prompting the E.U. to respond that such a move would bring significant retaliatory measures on U.S. goods. Wow!  Now Trump indicates that he’s willing to open up further trade negotiations with the E.U.

Trump has also tweeted that his administration is considering introducing tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico, much to the displeasure of the American auto industry. You see, in today’s world, many auto parts are supplied from sources outside the U.S.  Indeed, the average Big Three vehicle is comprised of anywhere between 40 to 60 percent of parts manufactured outside the country.  American auto tariffs will simply disrupt the supply chain, reduce efficiencies, increase costs, cause a major downturn in the industry, and eventually increase the costs of all vehicles to American consumers.

American tariffs on Chinese goods, including steel and aluminum, are already having an impact on the agricultural sector, especially on soybean exports. As a result, Trump has pledged $12 billion to farmers to help ease trade pain caused by tariffs aimed at China which had retaliated against U.S. farm products. However, farmers have made it clear that they don’t want handouts, but prefer to be able to sell their products and are concerned about the long-term damage caused by tariffs.

As for negotiating separate trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, the chances are pretty slim that either country would agree to do so. Mexican and Canadian officials have reiterated that talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will remain a three-way negotiation. Canada has a strong participant in Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland who has proven to be an excellent representative from the Canadian Cabinet. She has made it very clear that Canada is working to obtain a modern NAFTA which is fair and beneficial to all three countries. Minister Freeland met with Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who will take office on Dec. 1rst, and was given assurance that Mexico also has the same objectives for a trilateral trade agreement.

I firmly believe that President Trump has underestimated just how much the E.U., China, Mexico and Canada are willing to go to protect their interests and promote free trade. Before the terrible and costly consequences of international trade wars happen, I would suggest that the President take a close look at his strategy and consider backing off even more.  I’m sure even the Republicans, who historically promoted free trade as opposed to protectionism, would very much support such a move.  We can only hope.

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Protectionism Protectionist Trade Policies US

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Jul 15

When One Takes the Humanity Out of Government, What’s Left?

by bcurry

Recent actions by the Trump administration have left me scratching my head. One action that I can’t understand is that of separating parents who are seeking asylum in the U.S. from their children, some under five years old! Not only did this action outrage many Americans, but it also brought on criticism from other countries, church groups and international organizations.  Talk about stupidity!

This is not the way that democratic governments should go about their business. Is this a reflection of American society today?  No matter the excuse, why would any society punish young children in this way?  The pictures of the internment camps for the children were heart breaking.  Imagine, as parents and grandparents, if this kind of separation happened to your children or grandchildren.  Even the courts are ruling that these actions are cruel and unusual punishment and have ordered the federal authorities to reunite these children with their parents as soon as possible.  Unfortunately, the administration has spread the parents all over the country and any reunification will most likely take weeks if not months in some cases.

Sending Trump’s wife out to visit some of the current youth internment facilities doesn’t do much to alter the terrible situation. This is the “I don’t care, do you” parent.  If anything, it’s just another attempt by the administration to down play the problem and put on a caring face.  Talk about hypocrisy!  One can only hope that Americans will remember what is happening.  After all, when one takes the humanity out of government, what’s left?

Donald Trump Immigration Political Scandals US

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Jul 1

This Canada Day, We Stand On Guard For Thee

by bcurry

We celebrate July 1st in recognition of the 150 years since the formation of the country called Canada. The U.S. of course celebrates July 4th in recognition of its independence day.  The two countries have a lot in common, including the longest unguarded border in the world.  We fought two World Wars and the Korean War together.  Canadian troops served in Afghanistan. Canada and the U.S. formed the continental defence body called the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). We share a common language “English”, although Canada also has “French” as a second official language.  Many Americans and Canadians work and play in each other’s countries.  Canada is America’s single largest trade partner and have a free trade arrangement in place, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

However, since the emergence of President Donald Trump’s administration, the relationship between our two countries has seriously deteriorated to having now become the worst in decades. The relationship has not only soured because of the current re-negotiations respecting NAFTA and recent U.S. tariffs placed on Canadian steel and aluminum products, but because of Trump’s continuing personal attacks on Canadians, including our Prime Minister.  These and other attacks on our European and Latin American allies have further aggravated world tensions, both economic and political.  Trump’s protectionist and ‘America First’ policies may play well among his base in the U.S., but it is unravelling decades of international cooperation.

There are no winners in this current atmosphere of constant turmoil and instability, much of which is reflected in the stock markets in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Europe and China. Should the trade war continue, many experts predict that the world could be in for another major global recession.  Here in Canada, businesses, workers and consumers are preparing for the worst. As Canada now has an integrated economy with the U.S., industries like the automotive sector will suffer on both sides of the border in the advent of the imposition of further tariffs. Canadians perceive the imposition of American tariffs as a deliberate attack on the Canadian economy and have responded accordingly with new tariffs on a wide range of American products.  Indeed, there are now national ‘Buy Canadian’ campaigns aimed at promoting Canadian brands over American brands.  Numerous Canadians have already decided not to vacation south of the border, and mutual tourism will suffer.

Jobs will be lost on both sides of the border, but I’m certain that the economic impact will be worst for Canada as a trading nation. The results will be an increase in Canadian opposition to the Trump regime and a growing frustration with its unfair policies.  After all, Americans are supposed to be our friends and a good neighbour.  We have never taken this for granted.  However, Canadians are a proud people and will resist any such bullying tactics by external sources, no matter how difficult conditions may become.  The question then becomes how long these conditions will continue and how long it will take to mend fences in the future?  Your guess is as good as mine.  In the meantime, as Canadians we will stand on guard for thee.  Happy Canada Day! Oh yeah, and hopefully a happy Fourth of July!

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Protectionist Trade Policies U.S. Canada Border US

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Jun 25

All Is Not Well in Washington, D.C.

by bcurry

It would appear that the U.S. capitol is suffering from something we could call “Trumpcolic”. The symptoms are painful and exhibit a continuous flow of wind from the intestines and bowel movements.  The smell alone can be dreadful.  This malady has affected Republicans on the Hill in particular, leaving them scurrying about in search of some medicinal relief, especially since praying has not offered any comfort.  While the cause of this epidemic is known, there appears to be no clear remedy at this time.  It’s difficult to treat since the symptoms are never consistent and change almost on a daily basis.  Indeed, the cure may be almost as bad as the disease itself.

Explanations keep emerging from the White House, but frequently are contradictory in nature. Given its almost daily instability, providing a clear prognosis has become increasingly difficult.  What is worst, the health of an entire nation is at stake!  American and foreign experts have thrown up their arms in frustration.  They have seen many a period of incontinence in the past, but nothing like this.

There are already signs that this disease has spread beyond the capitol’s boundaries. The Democrats are pushing to find a cure in the fall, while the Republicans are struggling to contain any further outbreak.  A sense of dread can be felt in all four corners of the country.  Many Americans have taken to searching out some form of immunization to protect themselves from this scourge.  Others remain convinced that the disease is fake and simply a fabrication of the established media.

Never in the history of the country have so many been challenged by such an outbreak. Despite expert opinion, no one appears to know who is to be believed anymore.  Even more important, Trumpcolic has now spread to other countries.  This has forced these countries to ally themselves in order to prevent a world-wide epidemic.  However, it may be too late because the symptoms have begun to appear in Italy, Germany, Austria, and Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, the stench is becoming that much stronger.

Donald Trump Protectionist Trade Policies US US Politics

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Jun 18

How Many Workers Will Be Forced to Delay Their Retirement?

by bcurry

A recent Washington Post article by Thomas Heath had an interesting title: “Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan”. Indeed, he went on to note that by retiring too early you risk outliving your money, and staying at the desk too long you might miss out on life. How true.  The number of older workers (65 and up), mostly so-called boomers, have delayed their retirement for differing reasons over the last decade.  Bloomberg News reported that almost 19 percent of Americans 65 or older were working at least part-time in the second quarter of 2017. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects this trend to continue.  The BLS estimates that by 2024, 36 percent of 65- to 69-year-olds will be active participants in the labor market. That’s apparently up from just 22 percent in 1994. The same can be said for older Canadian workers.

A good part of the problem lies in the fact that many workers no longer have access to a private pension plan, particularly a ‘defined benefit pension plan’. In the U.S., according to a 2016 analysis by Willis Towers Watson P.L.C., the number of defined benefit pension plans sponsored by the nation’s largest corporations (Fortune 500) continues to fall. Just 99, or about 20% of these companies offered a defined benefit pension plan to new salaried employees in 2015, down from 104, or nearly 21% in 2014.  This represented a dramatic fall from a decade earlier in 2005, when 248, or just over 48% of Fortune 500 firms, offered the plans.  As per the same analysis, more of these firms are offering only defined contribution plans to new salaried employees, who will have to sort out their investments for future retirement on their own.

In addition, many boomers are not saving enough for retirement either through contributions to Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSP) in Canada and 401(k)s and IRAs in the U.S.  Indeed, in 2017, Forbes estimated that half of Americans were approaching retirement with no savings!  Instead, these workers appear to be relying on Social Security to finance their retirement.  Now, one needs to realize is that, for low-income Americans, Social Security may be enough.  However, will Social Security be enough to have a comfortable retirement?  Middle income Canadians face the same dilemma, especially those relying solely on the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security to finance their retirement.  Their standard of living will suffer as costs begin to outweigh benefits in retirement, especially since we are living longer.

For those older workers who choose to continue working past 65 for an acceptable variety of personal and bona fide reasons, we salute you, especially where your expertise and experience continue to be needed. For those older workers who have little or no choice financially but to continue working, we can only hope that you will not die at your workplace.  For the latter, the best advice that one can offer is to get your affairs in order, remain healthy and retire as soon as possible.  Otherwise, you might just miss out on life.

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Jun 11

President Trump’s Behaviour At The G7 Meeting In Canada Was Disrespectful To Host Leader

by bcurry

Justin Trudeau is the Prime Minister of the sovereign nation of Canada and as such deserves the normal respect given to any head of state. For the past four decades, Canada has been a recognized member of the G7 Group. This body is there to provide a valuable opportunity for the seven participating countries to discuss a number of important world issues, including trade.  Normally, at the end of each meeting a joint communiqué is issued highlighting the results of the discussions. However, although the U.S. delegation appeared to have endorsed the draft communiqué, the American President abruptly left the meeting refusing to sign off on the document. Instead, Trump launched a tirade against Prime Minister Trudeau calling him “dishonest and weak”.

Other leaders and delegates were surprised by Trump’s outburst, although not completely shocked given recent events. After all, some of these leaders have been disparaged by Trump’s statements in the past.  Some observers have labelled the tirade released by Trump and his advisors against the Canadian PM as a form of ‘bullying’.  Having placed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Canada has indicated that tariffs will be imposed on a number of American products exported to Canada.  In addition, Trump is not too happy with the negotiations surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which have been going slower than he would have liked.  Both Canada and Mexico believe that negotiations on a new agreement need to be thorough in order to achieve a fair and equitable result for all three nations. Given the complexity of some of the trade items, this process cannot be done over night.

President Trump needs to realize that the Prime Minister has the full backing of not only his government, but also the opposition members and Canadians in general. Unlike recent contradictory statements by Trump, the Canadian position on the NAFTA negotiations and on free trade in general has been consistent.  Indeed, the Canadian position reflects that of many of its European allies who have also been hit with American tariffs.  Regrettably, the U.S. protectionist situation leaves Canada, Mexico and the European Union with no other option but to retaliate in kind. No one wants to give in to a bully.  Unfortunately, workers and consumers in the U.S. and the other affected countries will ultimately suffer.

It’s time that Donald Trump realises that he is no longer part of a reality T.V. show. He is now on the world stage and needs to act in a respectful, informed and reflective manner.  Name calling and bullying have no place in diplomacy.  Years of cooperation and trust among nations are at stake.  Trump’s administration needs to be very careful as to whom it defames and attempts to discredit.  It’s one thing to launch a trade war and quite another to start diplomatic conflicts among one’s allies.  There could be grave consequences for the so-called leader of the free world.

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy NAFTA Protectionist Trade Policies US

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Jun 4

If Nothing Else, Enjoy the View at G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec

by bcurry

Just up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec, Canada, there is the lovely region of Charlevoix. Amid hills, lakes and rivers there exists parks and hiking trails, picturesque little villages and tons of nature.  From the shores, you can often see whales playing in the St. Lawrence River. This June 8th and 9th, the region will host the next G7 summit.  If you’re not already aware, the G7 consists of the U.S., Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. What’s particularly interesting this time, President Donald Trump, the so-called master negotiator, will be there after having just placed tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada, Mexico and Europe. Oh to be a fly on the wall at that meeting!

One has to remember that one of the goals of the G7 over the last four decades was to help coordinate trade and economic policies among these and other industrialized countries. The G7 has always been seen as a close-knit group having common interests.  This may all change at this summit.  None of the participants is happy with President Trump’s protectionist policies.  Indeed, some observers have described the new grouping as the “G6 plus one”, the U.S. being the one. The past goals of enhancing cooperation may be in real jeopardy, particularly when you have the American President publishing rambling tweets about the U.S. getting screwed by “stupid trade.” It’s obvious that Trump’s playing to his political core base back home, much to the chagrin of other Republicans and State governors who support “free trade” and have economically benefited from such support.

Moreover, the G7 has been somewhat effective because it had established a level of trust among its members. Now, Trump is straining those very bonds.  In addition, the President’s administration has not really gone after the real culprit in this story, China.  Instead, the President appears to be more concerned about his family’s financial interests in China and China’s role in the upcoming talks with North Korea. Although some will argue that the G7 as a body has done little to tackle certain economic and international trade issues, the fact is that at least it was there, along with the group of 20, to discuss emerging issues and perhaps avert damaging protectionist policies.

Let’s face it, I support free trade as benefiting all of us in one way or another. Indeed, I highlighted my views back in March in my blog entitled Does Trump Not Understand Fundamental Principles Behind Multi-lateral Trade?.  As for Canada, it has always had a close political and economic relationship with it’s southern neighbour.  Placing tariffs on certain products traded to the U.S. can only hurt that relationship.  Canadians are a proud people and take such actions as an affront to their country and its values, as appropriately expressed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  Such actions by this American administration will do nothing but harm the current negotiations around the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  Unfortunately, both American and Canadian workers and consumers will suffer from the most recent U.S.-imposed tariffs.  Charlevoix’s quiet ambience will most certainly be invaded by loud and angry voices.

Canada Donald Trump NAFTA Protectionist Trade Policies US

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May 22

Is Trump Ready To Go To War With Iran and North Korea?

by bcurry

There appears to be a lot of saber-rattling in Washington nowadays! You have Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listing a set of demands aimed at Iran so that it would become everything but a puppet state of the U.S.  One has John Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, who is a well known hawk in and around the capital. A lot of the administration’s critics think that these two would rather skip with the diplomatic niceties and skip straight to military action.

Then we have the European allies, China and Russia who all signed on to the Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal, in 2015. What Pompeo and Trump fail to understand is that the deal was aimed primarily at limiting Iran’s nuclear program by placing restrictions on it and having International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors set up a system that allows the U.N. watchdog to inspect nuclear-related sites in Iran. It was never intended to influence Iran’s general regional policy issues which would have to done through other separate foreign policy initiatives. Of course, Israel never liked the nuclear deal, which did not directly stop Iran from testing or firing ballistic missiles, and persuaded the Trump administration to go it alone. By scrapping the deal, the U.S. will reimpose U.S. sanctions, further hurting the average Iranian. Iran’s government is resolved to resist the American demands, even at the eventual expense of its economy. An anti-American stance can only help the radicals obtain more control of Iran’s politics.

As for North Korea, Kim Jong Un is playing Trump like a fiddle. Anyone who knows anything about his regime, understands that he is not willing to give up his nuclear arsenal.  Signing any peace treaty would require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea, possibly with its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea. Kim also now sees how the U.S. treated the nuclear deal with Iran and will not trust the Americans with any similar deal for North Korea. Kim is also using the current military exercises by the U.S. and its allies in the region as an excuse to potentially pull out of the planned June meeting with Trump. Trump is now caught in an awkward situation where political promises were made and expectations were raised as to some form of eventual deal in the region.  The ball is now in Kim’s court.

All of this signifies that American foreign policy is in a mess. Other than moving toward military actions, show me a strategy that makes sense.  The complexities of foreign policy development have been left to overly simplistic approaches and negotiating tactics.  Even the influence of the most powerful nation on earth won’t be enough to rescue this situation from the heap of manure on which it’s built.  I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be working in the State Department these days.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy The Middle East US

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