FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Oct 29

Well, Mr. President, Where Is Your Economic Boom Going Now?

by bcurry

On October 28th, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.5 percent, the biggest drop since June, amid a surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, especially in the U.S. Midwest.  There was also a significant drop in European stock values where there have been rising coronavirus infections and even tougher lockdowns.  In addition, American lawmakers failed to agree on an economic aid package before the Nov. 3rd election thereby eliminating any stimulus in the very near future.  The West Texas Intermediate crude sank 5.6 per cent to US$37.36 a barrel because of fears that additional economic restrictions will have a further negative impact on the already hard hit travel industry and daily commuting. 

The timing of this significant downturn could not be at a worst time for Donald Trump, less than a week before the election.  Trump has consistently used the stock markets as an indication of an economic recovery.  The problem is that the markets do not necessarily reflect what’s actually happening on main street.  For one thing, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent in September 2020 from 8.4 percent in the previous month.  However, this was below market expectations of 8.2 percent, as fewer people were looking for jobs.  The labour force dropped by 0.7 million to 160.1 million, with the number of unemployed persons falling only by 1.0 million to 12.6 million and employment rising by just 0.3 million to 147.5 million.  Moreover, the jobless rate remained well above pre-pandemic levels as the recovery from COVID-19 shock showed signs of slowing amid diminishing government stimulus and record spikes in new coronavirus cases.

The President’s campaign has put all his eggs in the one basket, that of the economy.  He continues to downplay the terrible impact of COVID-19 on the economy.  While Trump’s rich friends have benefited from the recent stock market gains, the average American continues to suffer from the loss of business and employment, not to mention the health care costs associated with the coronavirus.  The bottom may be about to fall out of the President’s campaign.  One can only predict that the U.S. has headed into a major recession, one which may be greater than that of the Great Recession and may last longer.  Whoever becomes the next president will have to deal with this economic mess, which can only begin by reducing the COVID-19 case loads and providing an appropriate economic stimulus package.

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Oct 26

Finally, the American Mainstream Media Got It Right

by bcurry

For sometime now, both in the U.S. and Canada there have been serious concerns about where people are getting their local, national and international news.  With the advent of social media and nebulous on-line sources of news, the danger of misinformation and disinformation has risen on a number of occasions.  This has especially been the case during national elections.  The confirmed Russian interference in the last American elections highlighted the ability of certain actors to attempt to insert bias and misinformation into news outlets and social media.

In any democracy, the media plays an important role.  In the past, journalism within mainstream media resources, be it in print, radio or television, was a key, reliable and important source of information for citizens.  There was a code of conduct for journalists to research and verify their sources of information before publishing or broadcasting their findings, hopefully based on facts gathered in their investigations.  I would like to think that, when I read articles in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the National Post and the Financial Post in Canada, etc., etc., the information has been thoroughly vetted to ensure as much accuracy and verifiable facts as possible.

Unfortunately, there are still attempts by some to plant misinformation for political gain.  This appears to have been the case among President Trump’s close advisors inside the White House who believed President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign needed a desperate last ditch rescue mission.  According to the New York Times, this included Arthur Schwartz, a New York public relations man close to Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr., White House lawyer Eric Herschmann, and former deputy White House counsel Stefan Passantino.  They attempted to concoct a story concerning to Hunter Biden’s work in the Ukraine and the involvement of then Vice-President Joe Biden.  They were hoping that mainstream media would pick up the story and go with it prior to the November election.  However, following further investigative journalism, news outlets such as the Wall Street Journal wouldn’t buy it.  Good for them!

While some unreliable social media sources and right-wing publications love to pursue such stories in an attempt to influence their supporters and possibly some voters, at least the mainstream news media shed light on the President’s attempt to promote “fake news” for political gain.  Trump even tried to raise the unconfirmed collusion story about Hunter and Joe Biden’s involvement in the Ukraine during the final presidential debate.  However, without substantive proof, the attempt was a weak and dishonest one aimed at manipulating public opinion for political gain.  Hopefully, voters will acknowledge Trump’s unfortunate effort to deflect the debate from other important and real issues such as his administration’s absolute failure to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Oct 15

Entering Critical Stage In The Battles Against COVID-19

by bcurry

In North America, we have entered a critical stage in the battles against COVID-19 which some are referring to as the “second wave”.  We have only to see what is happening as part of the second wave in Europe.  With an average of more than 100,000 new infections per day over the past week, Europe now accounts for about one-third of new cases reported worldwide.  Countries such as Britain, France, Spain, Germany, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and even Russia have had to reintroduce restrictions on travel among regions and various forms of lockdowns and curfews.  European leaders are now confronting an evident surge in coronavirus cases that is rapidly filling hospital beds.

In U.S. federal elections, the surging rise in coronavirus cases across the country, especially in the Midwest, has taken front and center stage in the campaigns.  The public health crisis could reach new levels of urgency by Inauguration Day.  Recent projections show that, if current trends hold, as many as 400,000 Americans may have died from Covid-19 by then.  Unfortunately, President Trump and his allies continue to downplay the virus, arguing that the country is “turning the corner”.  Trump and Vice-Presdent Pence are holding campaign events with thousands of supporters in attendance, even as cases are increasing rapidly.  In Canada, coronavirus cases have risen in the last month to surpass levels above those seen at the height of COVID-19 last spring.  Provincial governments across the country are reintroducing numerous restrictions on travel between regions and varying degrees of lockdowns.  The Prime Minister has declared that the border with the U.S. will remain closed to non-essential travelers as long as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase in Canada and the U.S.

With governments’ restrictions on businesses and gatherings in the U.S., Canada and in Europe, there are complaints by some as to their impact on the economy and employment.  However, unless people once again take the situation seriously and are no longer complacent after the past summer of fewer restrictions, countries will find it harder to effectively confront the surge in coronavirus cases that is rapidly filling hospital beds and subsequently driving up death tolls.  Health care systems and workers are being stretched to their limits now, although the seasonal flu season has not yet begun in earnest.  More schools will be required to close and more people will be forced to withdraw from their work to provide child care and home schooling. 

Various precautions have to be taken such as: limiting our social activities to our immediate households, wearing masks in public, physically distancing wherever possible, washing our hands frequently, getting the seasonal flu vaccine, traveling only for essential purposes and avoiding contact outside the household with persons having underlying health conditions except when providing an essential service.  Folks: to undertake this sacrifice is not asking too much under the circumstances and will benefit the community at large.  Unless each of us takes such measures, the second wave of this pandemic will only get worse.  As our leaders and public health officials often reiterate, we are all in this together, whether you like it or not!

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Oct 13

Heading Towards Another Nuclear Arms Race?

by bcurry

During the so-called Cold War in the early sixties, the U.S. and former Soviet Union (USSR) had enough nuclear warheads to devastate every major city in both countries and more.  In the late 1960s, it was estimated that the U.S. had more than 30,000 nuclear weapons, and the Soviet Union by some accounts had at least 40,000.  Fortunately, a Cold War-era pact, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, occurred whereby nuclear nations pledged to reduce their arsenals in exchange for non-nuclear nations not pursuing nuclear weapons.  As a result, the U.S. and Russia today each have more than 5,000 nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists — more than enough to still do plenty of death and destruction.  Unfortunately, there is no follow-on agreement between the U.S. and Russia to limit strategic arms.  Instead, one has both countries proceeding to increase their arsenals — this time with even more deadly and sophisticated weapons.

In recent decades, we also have had former non-nuclear nations joining the nuclear arms race.  It started covertly with India in the mid-seventies and Pakistan in the late seventies.  Now we have countries such as North Korea, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia moving to expand their missile capabilities and to develop nuclear weapons.  Then of course there is China which is pursuing a full nuclear triad that can launch nuclear warheads from air, land and sea.  As a recent article in the Washington Post noted, the threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office.  Indeed, one must conclude that we are in a full-blown arms race.  As the article concluded: “… after nearly four years in office, he hasn’t signed any significant new treaties to regulate the world’s most devastating weapons and has populated his administration at times with arms-control skeptics, such as John Bolton, the former national security adviser.”

In addition, the Trump administration’s on-going verbal attacks on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is alienating allies in Europe, at a time when the U.S. needs the full support of NATO in dealing with Russia and Iran.  Trump’s three meetings with Kim Jong Un of North Korea did nothing to slow down that regime’s continued development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclearization.  Obsessed with media coverage, these meetings were all show and had no substance except to legitimize Kim’s regime in the eyes of the world.

The general stance of the Trump administration to stand alone and isolate the U.S. from the broader multilateral issues affecting global issues has done a great disservice to American leadership on the world scene.  With both Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin bragging about the modernization of their respective nuclear arsenals, one can only conclude that we are witnessing another nuclear arms race.  With numerous other nations now having nuclear capabilities, the threat of such weapons being used is increasing every day when no new non-proliferation treaties are in place.  The only way that the world can come to grips with this reality is through meaningful dialogue and multilateral negotiations involving all the affected countries.  No one country can tackle this issue on its own.

Foreign Policy Nuclear Arsenal US

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Oct 8

Politics and the Tragic Story of U.S. CDC in Tackling COVID-19

by bcurry

On October 7th, it was reported that U.S. coronavirus cases surpassed 7.5 million with most states seeing a rise in cases and a startling nine states setting ominous, seven-day records for infections.  Even these numbers may not reflect the reality given that the nation’s patchwork pandemic response has led to wide disparities in data reporting.  There are apparently even differences in definitions for basic medical concepts.  In the absence of federal standards, states have also adopted divergent and sometimes scientifically questionable approaches to disease control.

Where has the leadership role of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) been in all of this during the past nine months?  William Foege, a renowned epidemiologist who served under Democratic and Republican presidents, detailed in a recent private letter to CDC Director Robert Redfield (obtained by USA TODAY) what he considered as the White House’s meddling in the agency’s efforts to manage the COVID-19 crisis.  He reflected what a number of Director Redfield’s predecessors at the CDC strongly believe have been serious failures in the administration’s coronavirus response. Dr. Foege expressed how many scientists and experts feel about the CDC’s failure.  Moreover, Dr. Foege’s letter lamented that “the CDC’s scientific experts have been rendered impotent during the most significant health crisis in a century while decades of experience have been ignored.” He concluded: “This will go down as a colossal failure of the public health system of this country.”

Here in Canada, the CDC has had an excellent reputation for its work in the past and government bodies such as the Public Health Agency of Canada and Health Canada have interacted on health issues with the CDC on numerous occasions.  Now, the CDC’s scientific reputation has unfortunately been tainted because of the administration’s actions and its failure to provide national science-based standards in addressing COVID-19 issues and to help develop applicable national policies. 

In a virtual event held by American University, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious diseases expert, recently said that as many as 400,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if action isn’t taken in the fall and winter.  Dr. Fauci acknowledged that there was the decreasing trust in him as a public official, especially in light of mixed coronavirus messages coming out of the CDC.  President Trump’s frequent attacks on the CDC’s integrity and several renown scientists have done nothing to help matters.  In direct contradiction of the experts and the CDC, Trump persists in stating that a vaccine will be available in the very near.  However, experts and researchers have asserted that a vaccine will probably not be available to most Americans until next summer or the fall at the earliest.  Once again, Trump is attempting to undermine the expert advice of the CDC and others for political reasons to the detriment of all Americans.  What a shame!

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Oct 6

Mr. President, Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 Has Been Known for Sometime

by bcurry

This week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) finally acknowledged that the coronavirus can spread through microscopic respiratory particles known as aerosols that float in the air for minutes or even hours before being inhaled.  The CDC added a warning against frequenting crowded, poorly ventilated indoor spaces.  As a result, the CDC has long recommended that masks be worn when near others and are useful both indoors and outdoors for preventing the spread of the virus.

Why is this message important?  One has only to look at the big news of the week wherein it was reported that President Trump had tested positive for COVID-19, along with his wife and over a dozen of his top advisors and White House staff.  There was a lot of speculation about how the coronavirus was spread, given the number of events where the President and his entourage were involved in over the last month.  Some believe that airborne transmission may have occurred at the Sept. 26th White House Supreme Court nomination ceremony for Judge Amy Coney Barrett.  The event included a large gathering outside in the Rose Garden and a smaller indoor reception.  As was the usual White House scene, photographs show that in both locations few people wore masks and that social distancing guidelines were not widely followed.  There were also reports that the participants were really close to each other, they were hugging each other, and they were shaking hands.

Wow, why would anyone be surprised that the President, his wife and others, including reporters, tested positive after such events!  Talk about a total disregard by this administration for the health of others.  For months, the CDC and researchers have been advocating various precautions that need to be taken to avoid becoming infected with the coronavirus.  Most leaders in other countries, including here in Canada, have implement stringent guidelines to ensure the health and safety of their families and senior staff.  Those who did not introduce precautionary measures such as masks, like the U.K.’s Boris Johnson back in March, saw the consequences.  The virus ripped its way through the top levels of the U.K. government — infecting ministers and senior advisers.  Like Donald Trump, Mr Johnson was admitted to hospital — although Downing Street stressed this was “a precautionary step”.  Shortly after his hospitalization came the shocking news that his condition had “worsened”, and the Prime Minister had to be moved to the intensive care unit.  Fortunately, he survived.

While President Trump is now out of hospital, some expert medical practitioners have stated that he is not yet out of the woods.  Unfortunately, the same prognosis could be true for the infected White House staff and reporters.  Meanwhile, much of his administration is in quarantine for up to ten days or more.  Still, Trump has arrogantly declared that people shouldn’t fear the coronavirus.  Maybe, he would like to tell that to the over 200,000 Americans that to date have died from this virus!

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Sep 30

American Presidential Debate Was An Embarrassment And A Disgrace

by bcurry

The other day I went to a boxing match and a street brawl broke out.  This is what most people felt after having watched the first televised presidential debate last night.  Just like boxing matches, debates have rules for both sides to adhere to.  However, no one should be surprised that Donald Trump does not believe in rules and constantly interrupted Joe Biden throughout the debate, despite the admonitions of the poor moderator.  Like many other observers, this was the first and hopefully last time that I ever witness such an embarrassing spectacle after having followed many years of political debates held here in Canada and in the U.S.

Normally, a debate allows two or more participants to lay out their positions on one or more issues in a civil and respectful manner.  The key adjective here is “respectful”.  In a democracy, one is taught that everyone has a right to express their opinion in a non-violent and transparent way, respecting the right of others to do so as well.  Under most debating protocols, persons are given a specific time frame in which to outline their position on the issue in question without interruption.  Then the opposing person is allowed to present his or her views.  Next, each side usually is then given time for rebuttal of the other side’s position.  The main role of the moderator should be to submit the issue for discussion and then to ensure the allocated time frames are adhered to by the debaters.  The primary purpose of a debate is to provide the viewer with an overview of the debaters’ positions on certain specific issues in a brief, fair and concise manner.

Name calling and personal attacks have no place in a civil debate.  These belong in places where mob rule applies, which unfortunately often leads to violent confrontations.  If the American people endorse Trump’s behaviour during the debate, then there is little left to salvage civil society.  As in most debates, I chose to not pick sides and was more interested in the issues being debated and the manner in which they were debated.  These are extremely important issues and candidates for such a powerful position need to be clearly heard.  To do so in a constructive manner, all sides need to refrain from mud slinging — increasingly an inherent part of political rallies.  Otherwise, what is the point of holding future debates?

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Sep 15

The Press Is Physically Under Attack By Police in the U.S.

by bcurry

On September 11, 2020, five police officers threw a female journalist to the ground and handcuffed her as she repeatedly screamed that she was with a local news network and her press credentials dangled from her neck as they shoved her into a patrol car.  This was all captured on video wherein she can be clearly heard shouting that she was a reporter.  At the time, she was covering an incident between police and a small group of protesters.  Local authorities explained that she was taken into custody for five hours on suspicion of obstruction of justice by “interfering with a lawful arrest.”  However, the same authorities later explained: “There is footage of the incident and an active investigation is underway.”

In late May 2020, two members of a TV crew from Reuters news agency were shot at with rubber bullets while police dispersed protesters defying an 20:00 curfew.  Around the same time, a riot police officer charged his shield at a BBC cameraman covering another protest.  The cameraman was clearly identifiable as a member of the media.  An identified reporter from Germany’s international news broadcaster Deutsche Welle, again covering a protest, was shot with projectiles by police while preparing to go live on air.

These attacks on the media did not occur in Russia or Belarus, but right at home in the U.S.  In June, the US Press Freedom Tracker, a non-profit project, said it was investigating more than 100 “press freedom violations” at protests.  About 90 cases involved attacks.  The Committee to Protect Journalists has claimed that dozens of journalists covering anti-racism protests in the U.S. have reported being targeted by security forces using tear gas, rubber bullets and pepper spray.  In many cases, the Committee said it was despite showing clear press credentials.  The Society of Professional Journalists has stipulated that this excessive use of force represents a serious threat to the First Amendment guarantee which protects the press, free speech, and the right to protest.

Meanwhile, you have President Trump who continues to blatantly attack the media.  He has tweeted: “The Lamestream Media is doing everything within their power to foment hatred and anarchy.” He also said that journalists were “truly bad people with a sick agenda”.  Statements like these only add to a perceived justification for enforcement officials to harass and even physically attack reporters and their crews.  Such crews are simply carrying out their primary role to provide citizens with the information they need to effectively govern a democracy.  Attempts to prevent the media from performing this role in a safe and secure manner are in itself a deliberate attack on democracy.  Such attacks do not help the image of law enforcement which is primarily to serve and protect members of the community, including those diligently and importantly working within the media.  On-going coverage of the protests cannot and must not be used as an excuse to arbitrarily attack representatives of the media, despite dangerous and unwarranted pronouncements by certain politicians.

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Sep 7

Squeezing the Middle Class: The Proof is in the Pudding

by bcurry

Over the last few years, numerous studies have come out which confirm beyond a doubt that the incomes of those in the American middle class have slowly but surely shrunk.  The most recent one just released by Stephen Rose of George Washington University, Urban Institute, highlights this fact by looking at income trajectories from 1967 to 2016.  In his study he concludes, and I quote from his main findings:

  • “ The median income growth experienced by prime-age Americans over a fifteen-year period has been cut by almost two thirds, from 27% to 8%.
  • The proportion experiencing a large income loss has more than tripled, from 4% to 12%.
  • The upper middle class has expanded significantly, while the “middle” middle class (MMC) has shrunk from 50% to 36%.
  • Income growth at the top of the distribution has been almost twice as fast as in the middle (48% at the 95th percentile, compared to 26% at the median).
  • Upward mobility out of poverty has declined, from 43% to 35%.
  • Downward mobility from the MMC has doubled, from 5% to 11%.
  • The proportion of Black Americans in the upper middle class has increased significantly, from just 1% to 14%. But large race gaps remain: 39% of whites are in the upper middle class or higher.
  • More education has become more closely associated with a higher income; 59% of those with a BA+ are in the upper middle class or higher, up from 37%. ” 1.

Meanwhile, several other studies have shown that during the last few decades, the rich have been getting richer.  One such study in December 2014 by the Pew Research Center found that the wealth gap between the country’s top earners and the rest of America had stretched to its widest point in at least three decades.  The same report also noted that the Great Recession of 2008-09 had destroyed a significant amount of middle-income and lower-income families’ wealth, and the economic ‘recovery’ has yet to be felt for them.  According to a 2019 working paper on wealth inequality by University of California at Berkeley economist Gabriel Zucman, the 400 richest Americans — the top 0.00025 percent of the population —tripled their share of the nation’s wealth since the early 1980s.  Zucman also found that U.S. wealth concentration seems to have returned to levels last seen during the Roaring Twenties.  Those 400 Americans now own more of the country’s riches than the 150 million adults in the bottom 60 percent of the wealth distribution. 2.

Once again, initial indications are that the middle class is being particularly hurt by the novel coronavirus pandemic, such that some refer to the current economy as the depression of minivans.  There is little doubt that there are two economies at this time: that of wall street and that of main street.  Gabriel Zucman writes that the wealthy use their money to buy political power, and they use some of that power to protect their money.  On the other hand, middle-class families tend to use their wealth to save for rainy-day expenses or to draw down on for retirement.  With the pandemic and ensuing high levels of unemployment in key sectors, the middle class is having to draw down on their savings just to survive.  Under the Trump administration which believes that wall street depicts the current state of the economy, wealthy Americans continue to thrive, including the Trump family.

1. Squeezing the Middle Class: Income Trajectories From 1967 to 2016: Stephen Rose, Economic Studies at Brookings, August 2020

2. Wealth concentration returning to ‘levels last seen during the Roaring Twenties,’ according to new research: Christopher Ingraham, Washington Post, February 8, 2019

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Sep 4

A September That No One Will Ever Forget!

by bcurry

Well, here we are.  We’ve almost survived the summer of COVID-19 and are anxiously awaiting to see that the fall has to offer.  Kids are going back to schools for the most part across the continent.  Parents are as anxious as ever for their safety.  Already, there are signs that troubled waters lie ahead, especially on college campuses.  While the coronavirus outbreaks are relatively under control in Canada, the same cannot be said for the U.S.  Community cases continue to emerge in the mid-west and in California.  Over six million COVID-19 cases have to date been confirmed in the U.S., making it statistically the leading country in the pandemic, ahead of such countries as Brazil and India.

In the meantime, the U.S. is preparing itself for a presidential election which everyday is becoming nastier and nastier.  Donald Trump will keep on tweeting right up to election day and will continue to use scare tactics and conspiracy theories to justify his position.  There is no doubt that this will be the weirdest American election of all time — virtual or not.  As a long-time student of American political history, this should be one for the books — and there are plenty of those already starting to emerge.

As far as the North American economies go, tougher times are expected.  As of mid-August, more than 29 million Americans were receiving some sort of unemployment insurance.  In Canada, although there was a labour market improvement in August, that may not be as robust as headlines suggest.  The fact is that most of the job gains have been due to the return of workers, especially part-timers, who became unemployed during the early stages of the pandemic.  The damage to both economies has been wide and deep.  Economic growth is in negative territory and is not expected to improve substantively for some time, perhaps years.  The two big risks for the recovery remain the uncertainty around back-to-school plans and the onset of colder weather which will also bring in the normal influenza season and potential second waves of COVID-19.

There appear to be two economies in both countries, that of wall street and that of main street.  The average American and Canadian is struggling to pay their bills, make mortgage payments and put food on the table.  The rich on the other hand are just getting wealthier, exacerbating the already established inequalities in society.  A huge question remains as to how long government assistance can continue?   The U.S. debt is set to exceed the size of the economy next year, a first Since World War II.  The federal debt held by the public projected to reach or exceed 100% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).  In Canada, the combined debt level of all governments is poised to surge to an unprecedented $1.9 trillion or 85% of GDP.

The fact of the matter is that the only way that both economies can improve is by first getting COVID-19 outbreaks under control and, as experts note, by flattening the curve related to community spread.  In the meantime, school re-openings will no doubt test the resolve for both parents and politicians alike.

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