FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Feb 9

Truckers’ Protest Convoys Could Be Harbinger Of Societal Problems To Come

by bcurry

At the beginning of the global pandemic, I warned that the war against COVID-19 could prove to be a real test for societies, particularly those classified as being democratic.  After over two years of combating the disease, we are now seeing the brunt of pandemic fatigue on the general population due to its obvious economic impacts.  This has led to several anti-government protests, including the current truckers’ protests in Canada, Australia and the U.S.  However, people’s general frustration and lack of trust in governments are just the tip of the iceberg.  Even if countries may be slowly going from a pandemic to an endemic with respect to COVID, the fact of the matter is that some underlying socio-economic trends had been already set in motion.  In Western societies, the growing disparities between the haves and have-nots will no doubt lead to even more rank and file populist protests.

What is contributing to people’s disenchantment with the free market-based economies and political institutions that supposedly protect them?  Recent economic data and polls have shown us several outcomes.  The pandemic and the resulting restrictive economic measures imposed by governments have further exacerbated the gaps in incomes and increased the average person’s lack of trust in their governments.  In recent years, fewer families have been able to become full members of the middleclass.  Educational, employment and other opportunities to obtain or retain middleclass status have become fewer and fewer, especially given the increasing costs associated with a post-secondary education.  Many of the blue and white collar jobs that offered good wages in the past, whether in manufacturing or other sectors, have slowly disappeared due to new technologies, automation and informatics.

Take these factors and evident increases in the cost of living, including the lack of affordable housing and rising costs in everyday essentials, you have the basis for a lot of disengagement.  The majority of economists agree that hyperinflation is here for some time to come.  This is especially difficult for low-wage workers and small businesses.  On top of this, government subsidies which assisted businesses and workers during pandemic-related restrictions are or have disappeared.  As interest rates rise to deal with hyperinflation, there will be increasing debt loads for both individuals and governments.  The lack of affordable housing in most North American cities has now reached crisis proportions.

We have whole segments of populations facing extreme stress levels.  Everyone is talking about mental health issues, something considered taboo not that many years ago.  The growing use of marijuana, prescription and illegal drugs and alcohol has unfortunately led to growth industries which are indicative of our times.  Suicide rates are at an all time high, especially among our youth.  A study released by the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in December 2014 concluded more than 230,000 Ontario adults, amounting to 2.3 percent of the province’s adult population, “seriously contemplated suicide” in 2013.  Since then, things on the mental health front have simply gotten worst.  Spurred on by the pandemic and substance abuse, the use of violence, most notably gun violence, in our communities and domestic lives has grown in the last two years.  Needless-to-say, these are grave societal issues that cannot be resolved overnight.  Are governments and communities up to the challenge?

Populist movements have grown within the U.S. and Canada in recent years, with Donald Trump leading the way.  America today has two major political parties, but the presidential election of 2016 managed to reshape the platforms and agendas of both.  In Canada, one has the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), led by Maxime Bernier, which claims to bring together “common sense, populism, classical conservatism, and libertarianism to create solutions adapted for the challenges of the 21st century.”  Bernier was the only political leader to officially address the protesting truckers and others at their demonstration in front of Parliament Hill.  In the 2021 Canadian federal election, the PPC did not win any seats, despite winning nearly 5% of the popular vote.  Time will tell whether the current truckers’ protests are a sign of things to come in both Canada and the U.S., or just one more anomaly?

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Feb 2

To Defeat COVID, People Must Have Trust In Their Governments

by bcurry

If there is one thing that the current truckers for freedom convoys in Canada illustrates, that as the pandemic has continued, certain frustrated factions of the population have loss their trust in governments.  This is really important in the war on COVID.   Following ten months of research, a peer-reviewed study recently published in the Lancet, a top medical journal, concluded that trust in government and strength of community engagement is critical to the public health response.  It noted that wealthy countries with more robust health systems, including the U.S. and much of Europe, struggled with tackling COVID through public health measures.  The study noted that the U.S., for example, had the second-worst standardized infection rate of any high-income country.  Starting with President Trump, the messaging has often been confusing and had hampered to work of local and public health officials in implementing vaccination programs and restriction policies.  Frequently, lack of initial public trust in governments and the health care system prevented the more effective implementation of such measures. In this case, the pandemic has furthered eroded trust in the government among certain groups.  Thus, the high rates of COVID-related cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S.

Canada is not immune to the diminishing trust level of certain groups, as evidenced by the current truckers’ protests across the country.  Unfortunately, this lack of trust on the part of these groups has opened up the door for extremist fringe groups to attach themselves to such demonstrations.  Originally, the purpose of the so-called Freedom Convoy was to protest the implementation of a vaccine mandate for truckers entering Canada from the U.S.  The same mandate applies to Canadian truckers entering the U.S.  As the protest grew in numbers, led by Canada Unity, the group behind the convoy, the protest morphed into a call for the end of all anti-COVID restrictions.  The participation of extremist fringe groups became increasingly apparent with the display of swastikas, Nazi and Confederate flags, and the yellow star of David left over from the yellow vest movement which was known for its racist conspiracy theories.  Indeed, one of the convoy’s organizers is controversial right-wing figure Patrick King, who has stated that the truckers currently occupying the capital’s downtown core will not be leaving Ottawa any time soon, and are planning to stay until all COVID-19 public health measures are eliminated.

A “memorandum of understanding,” posted on the Canada Unity website, says its coalition is opposed to all restrictions and mandates related to COVID-19, rules it deems are “unconstitutional, discriminatory and segregating.”  The memorandum’s goal, it says, is to form a committee with the Senate and Governor General to override all levels of Canadian government.  If parliamentarians refuse to join, the group says they should “resign their lawful positions of authority immediately.”  Otherwise, they propose to overthrow the current democratically elected Parliament and install an autocratic government.  Interestingly, a GoFundMe campaign was launched in support of the truckers convoy — to date raising almost $10 million Canadian.  However, questions have been raised about the destination of the money, particularly since some of the organizers have been involved in extremist politics.  In addition, it is believed that some of the donations have come from groups in the U.S.  For this reason, it appears to be incumbent on the federal government to investigate this GoFundMe campaign to ensure that the funds are allocated to assist the truckers with their expenses and not for other political causes.  GoFundMe has announced that it would begin releasing money only after the organizers of the fundraising campaign provided a distribution plan for the funds.  In the meantime, given some of the charges levelled by law enforcement as a result of illegal actions committed by protesters, the government may want to have the courts issue an injunction against the distribution of any GoFundMe funds until full disclosure of the processes is made public.  One owes this full disclosure to donors.

The public health battle against COVID has gone reasonably well in Canada with 90.9% of doses delivered to the provinces having been administered as of today.  The result appears to imply that the vast majority of Canadians still have a fair amount of trust in their governments and in the science, despite certain public health restrictions remaining in place.  It is expected that these restrictions will be slowly lifted when there are fewer new cases of the Omicron variant and the rate of hospitalizations decreases.  I am certain that this public trust is warranted under the circumstances.

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Jan 26

Canadian Trucker Protest Over Mandatory Vaccination Between U.S. and Canada

by bcurry

This weekend, in something called the Freedom Convoy 2022, hundreds of semi-trucks will be arriving in Ottawa from cities across Canada in order to protest vaccine mandates.  However, plain and simple, their reaction to the Canadian government’s January 15th imposition of a vaccination requirement for truckers entering Canada appears to be just another protest tied into anti-vaxxers’ movements.  Indeed, the largest national organization representing Canadian truckers, the Canadian Trucking Alliance, has denounced the protest.  The Alliance has already stated that 85 percent of its members have been fully vaccinated, roughly the same as for the Canadian population at large.  It has strongly denounced any protests on public roadways, highways, and bridges and has urged all truckers to get inoculated.  However, the Alliance does not represent the majority of independent truckers who one would suggest are primarily involved in this protest, especially those in the West. 

On the other side of the border, the American administration has also imposed a mandatory vaccine requirement for truckers entering the U.S.  Indeed, it is interesting that Donald Trump Jr. this past Tuesday urged Americans on social media to follow the example of the Canadian trucker convoy’s fight against ‘tyranny’ and should carry out similar protests in the U.S.  Apparently, it is estimated that only half of American truckers have been vaccinated, not a dissimilar portion when compared to the general population in the U.S.  What concerns authorities is that the trucker convoy has become a lightning rod for far-right fringe, particularly those against public health measures and government restrictions in the fight against COVID. 

Despite claims that the vaccine mandates will negatively further exacerbate supply chain problems, in monitoring the volume of trucks crossing the border each day since January 15th, authorities have seen no measurable reduction in the number of trucks to date.  Last week, the Canadian Transport Minister noted that almost 100,000 trucks crossed the border — about the same as usual for this time of year.  Unfortunately, those opposed to vaccine mandates have attempted to frighten Canadians by claiming that there will be food and other materials shortages as a result of the government’s policies.  For the vast majority of Canadians, who support COVID vaccination and such mandates, the real issue is in the fight to control the pandemic’s current wave and reduce its terrible impact on a stressed-out health care system. 

Moreover, studies have shown that vaccine mandates work in increasing vaccination rates.  For example, recent research from Simon Fraser University economists indicated that the mere announcement of vaccine mandates last fall led to an average 66 percent surge in new, first-dose vaccinations in Canadian provinces.  From a constitutional perspective, whether a government can mandate vaccines depends on what exactly a new law says.  Canadians have rights to make decisions about vaccination but these rights are not absolute.  And having rights does not mean there will be no consequences for your decisions, including forms of penalization.  In the case of truckers, the government has done more than enough to promote voluntary vaccination.  Since the federal government imposed an immunization requirement last fall on workers in the air, rail and marine transportation sectors, it deliberately gave truckers more time to get vaccinated.  In consultation with the trucking and retail industries, the government waited for a “critical mass” of truckers to get their shots before making it mandatory.  In taking this approach and given the proven effectiveness of vaccine mandates, there is little doubt that the courts would find that such policies legally pass the taste test.

There is no doubt that Canadians and Americans owe much to these essential workers, but truckers need to vaccinate for their own health reasons and those of their families and friends, just like the rest of us.  While independent truckers in particular tend to reflect a ‘wild west’ mentality, they still have a responsibility to themselves and their communities to continue contributing to beating COVID-19 so that life can get back to normal and the economy can open.  They need to cut down on extreme pronouncements about attacking ‘tyrannical governments’ who supposedly are oppressing their people with public health measures.  Instead, they might gain more public support by avoiding such far-right fringe edicts.

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Jan 22

It’s Hard to be Optimistic About the Rest of 2022 — Here’s Why

by bcurry

Well, the New Year began much as the old year ended.  Across the board there are numerous reasons for North Americans not to be overly optimistic about the rest of the year.  Several key factors are leading us to this conclusion.

  • The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has created a fourth or fifth wave, depending on who you are talking to.  Although Omicron appears to have possibly peaked, it has once again severely strained our health care systems.  In addition, the unvaccinated continue to represent the largest number of hospitalizations, especially when it comes to patients in our ICUs.  Our health care providers continue to be under a great deal of strain, especially after two years of treating COVID patients.  There is now a tremendous backlog of elective surgeries and treatments.  In addition, although CDC studies show the effectiveness of booster vaccine shots in preventing severe COVID cases, far fewer adults have gotten booster shots to date.  When will we move from a pandemic to an endemic?
  • In most jurisdictions, kids are back for in-person learning in schools.  However, there are still a large number of children under the age of twelve who have not received their first dose of a COVID vaccine.  With the Omicron variant being twice as contagious as the Delta variant, many parents are concerned about the safety of schools and the potential effect of the disease on their children.  Indeed, statistics have shown that more children are being hospitalized due to Omicron.  Questions have been raised about whether in-person learning can continue in the near future.
  • Even with the economy starting to reopen, a number of economic issues have arisen.  Among these is the forecast of continuing hyperinflation over the coming months.  There continue to be supply chain problems, shortages of skilled labour and increasing fuel, food and housing prices.  With the current annual inflation rate running at around six percent, Canadians have not seen such a high inflation rate since 1991.  A survey of consumer expectations showed Canadian households also expect inflation to stay above 3 percent over the next couple of years, above the two percent average considered normally acceptable.  Central banks have little choice but to raise interest rates this year which will have a major effect on government and personal debt payments down the road.
  • Internationally, both the U.S. and Canada, as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), will have to deal with on-going Russian threats suggesting a possible military incursion into eastern Ukraine.  Although the Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the allied countries strongly believe that there needs to be an immediate and firm reaction to any Russian incursion.  As a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin, NATO countries are arming and training the Ukraine military and defence forces in preparation for such an event.
  • China’s economy is slowing, a worrying sign for the world.  China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates that economic output from October through December of 2021 was only 4% higher than during the same period a year earlier.  This is a far cry from previous annual growth rates ranging between 6 and 9 percent in recent years.  The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is now starting to spread in China, leading to more restrictions around the country and raising fears of renewed disruption of supply chains.  Being a major supplier to the North American markets, any continuing slowdown in China’s economy will have a severe impact on U.S. and Canadian businesses and consumers.
  • COVID-19 government relief programs for the unemployed and businesses affected by government-imposed lockdowns and public health measures are being phased out.  This could result in many hardships for lower income individuals and small to medium-sized businesses.  The resulting loss of income due to the pandemic will have an impact on government revenues in the near future.  Many government support programs may have to be reviewed for termination or reduction under expected future austerity measures.

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Jan 14

Trade Squabbles Between U.S. and Canada Will Always Exist

by bcurry

When Canada, the U.S. and Mexico signed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA, which came into force on July 1, 2020, no one really believed that any trade squabbles between the three countries would disappear overnight.  However, as a major trading nation, Canada has every desire to keep such squabbles to a minimum.  After all, the U.S. is Canada’s biggest trading partner with over 75 percent of Canada’s merchandise exports going to the U.S.  The U.S. and Canada enjoy the world’s most lucrative and enduring trade relationship, with almost $1.6 billion in goods crossing the border each day.  Goods and services trade between the two countries totalled almost $675 billion during 2017, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Despite our close economic relationship, disputes occurred under the former North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and continue to surface under the USMCA.  For example, the Canada–United States softwood lumber dispute is one of the most significant and enduring trade disputes in modern history.  The dispute has had its biggest effect on British Columbia, the major Canadian exporter of softwood lumber to the U.S.  In turn, it has increased the cost of softwood lumber in the U.S., influencing daily costs in housing construction.  More recently, the U.S. won a key ruling by the USMCA dispute-settlement panel that could allow more American dairy brands to break into the Canadian retail market, much to the chagrin of highly dairy provinces such as Quebec.  The next dispute on the horizon has Canada joining Mexico in formally disputing how the U.S. interprets rules governing the origin of vehicle parts under the USMCA agreement between the countries.  Ever since the auto pact under NAFTA, the three countries have established highly integrative parts and assembly capabilities when it comes to the manufacture of vehicles.  Now with the increased manufacturing of electric vehicles, the Biden administration has proposed that e-vehicles should be primarily assembled in the U.S., using American parts, in order to avoid any kind of tariffs at the American border.

In addition, all three countries are tied together in the energy sector on a truly continental basis.  Both Canada and Mexico have substantial oil and gas sectors, and help supply the thirsty U.S. markets.  None is so dependent as to ignore the other contributors.  Canada for some time now has been trying to increase the flow of Alberta oil via pipelines, such as the now defunct Keystone XL pipeline.  The Keystone XL pipeline project aimed to carry oil from the tar sands of Canada into the U.S. and has been a political football for years.  Led by pressure from American and Canadian environmentalists, both countries will continue to have issues surrounding the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, in particular via pipelines between the two countries.

However, trade wars simply are not effective.  Tariffs result in less capital spending and higher costs.  Any economics student knows that that is a recipe for net job losses across an economy, not net job additions.  For example, trade wars involving the introduction of tariffs result in more paperwork, less efficiency and higher costs as affected companies try to ‘game’ the system and attempt to get around the tariffs in any way possible.  The negative effects were clearly shown when Donald Trump introduced steel tariffs on Canadian steel.  A Canadian committee was quickly set up to make sure that other countries did not ‘dump’ steel into Canada in reaction to the U.S. steel tariffs.  Few new jobs were created in the U.S. steel industry, where the real issue is the problem of competition from modern and more efficient steel production overseas.  Again, Canada’s steel and aluminum industries are fairly integrated with American users and manufacturers, so that tariffs simply lead to market disruptions and increased end costs.

For decades now, people have talked about the need for freer trade between our two countries.  Indeed, most business people would prefer to let the marketplace determine the value of trade, including cost effectiveness and competitive advantages.  Unfortunately, it appears that administrations in both countries prefer to have dispute resolution processes settle their ongoing trade squabbles, often resulting in long, disruptive and costly legal battles.

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Jan 10

Arguments Against Working for Jerks Are Nothing New

by bcurry

Recently, Emma Goldberg wrote an article in the New York Times entitled: “No More Working for Jerks.”  The problem is that the issue of managers who are jerks is really nothing new.  What the pandemic and technology have increasingly exposed is that jerks are more frequently being caught out in the open.  The exposure is often because people are working from home and management has come to rely on e-mails, zoom and other social media to communicate with employees.  Over several years now I have been researching what makes good managers, only to find unfortunately that there are clearly a number who fit the mould of being crazy bosses, bad bosses, jerks or just plain assholes.  Whichever descriptive terms you prefer to use, their attributes include everything from bullying, harassment, insensitivity, incivility, sexism, racism, ageism, narcissism, etc., etc.

Several books have been written about managers displaying such attributes.  Stanley Bing wrote “Crazy Bosses” in 2007.   That same year, Robert I. Sutton wrote what has become a business classic: “The No Asshole Rule — Building a Civilized Workplace and Surviving One That Isn’t.”  This book became a runaway bestseller, selling well over 800,000 copies and sparking translations into languages including Polish and Japanese.  In 2017, Sutton wrote a follow-up book entitled “Asshole Survival Guide: How to Deal With People Who Treat You Like Dirt.”  The book offers ways of spotting and coping with the various kinds of jerks we encounter at work and pulls no punches.

Emma Goldberg notes in her article that, for some, the past year has rebalanced the power seesaw between worker and boss.  She suggests that it might partly be because of the surge of people quitting, noting a record high 4.5 million Americans who voluntarily left their jobs in November.  With about 1 out of 7 employees now working from home (compared to pre-pandemic 1 out of 67 persons), there is a lot of discussion about return to office plans of corporations and the preferences of workers vis-à-vis work-life balance.  Goldberg believes that, whatever the change, more workers are now feeling empowered to call out their managers than ever before, particularly those who are real jerks.

The fact of the matter is that studies have shown that companies that adopt a no-jerks or no asshole policy simply perform better.  In many cases, the problem starts with how workers are promoted and trained in management skills.  In today’s high-tech economy, persons with good technical skills may not necessarily have good soft-skills needed to manage knowledge workers.  Over the last couple of decades, companies have not invested as much time and resources in developing leadership and management skills.  Given the greater competition for gifted knowledge workers, having the right management skills and personal attributes is more important than ever.  When jerks are in charge, their actions quickly become known within the industry, often through social media exposure.  Subsequently, such corporate culture becomes a major obstacle to attracting new talent or retaining existing talent.

Increasingly, employees are informed during their orientation of the company’s “no asshole rule”, and it’s often even written into training material.  Failure to comply with the rule can lead to corporate punishment, including being fired.  Obviously, the same rule should apply to midlevel and senior managers.  Unfortunately, given the power and influence of senior executives, enforcing the rule and penalizing them for violations is not always easy.  Where Boards of Directors exist, it would certainly appear to be part of their responsibility to ensure accountability among senior management.  Over many years, there has been a lot written about actual examples of bad bosses and their impact on the workplace and workers.  Given the lack of management training and overview in both the private and public sectors, one can only conclude that jerks will continue to surface within organizations in the future.  The real question becomes whether these organizations will be able to retain and recruit scarce talent in this highly competitive era?

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Jan 8

Lower Unemployment Rate, However There Are Other Important Factors To Consider

by bcurry

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent in December 2021, compared to 4.2 percent in November.  According to Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate in Canada fell to a new pandemic-low of 5.9 percent in December 2021 from 6 percent in November.  Of course, this has governments in both countries touting their apparent economic policy success.  However, there are a number of important factors to consider especially given the impact of COVID-19 on the labour force participation, notably in certain sectors of the economy.  When these dynamics are factored in, there is not a whole lot of good news to shout about.

The first is the decline in the participation rate, that is to say those who are actually looking for work.  For example, in the U.S., the labour force participation rate was unchanged at 61.9 percent in December but remains 1.5 percentage points lower than in February 2020, largely because of the pandemic’s impact.  Many workers are choosing to stay out of the labour market due to health and safety concerns and business closures, more so today with the more contagious Omicron variant.  With fewer people actually seeking employment, this automatically helps to lower the unemployment rate.

In both countries, the jobless rates particularly show a disparity among certain groupings.  For example, in the U.S., the jobless rates for teenagers (10.9 percent), Blacks (7.1 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month of December.  In many cases, this is a reflection of the fact that certain minority groups and youth tend to work in low paying jobs in the leisure and hospitality sectors, many in small businesses that were closed or restricted due to lockdowns.  Employment in food services and drinking places has been particularly affected over the course of the pandemic.

In December, millions of persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer was closed or lost business due to the pandemic — that is: they did not work at all, were prevented from looking for work, or worked fewer hours at some point in the four weeks preceding the survey, often due to the pandemic.  To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.

Another factor has been the difficulty in finding full-time work for economic reasons and the pandemic.  Instead workers have been forced often to rely on part-time employment.  These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part-time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.  Some have had to rely on government assistance in order to survive over the last year and a half.  Unfortunately, some of these assistance programs have gradually been terminated in some jurisdictions, forcing many people to rely on food banks, friends and family for assistance.

What is most intriguing is the fact that despite a large number of jobs going unfilled, it appears that many employers are actually facing a labour shortage.  As their businesses reopen, this has forced employers to offer better wages and working conditions in order to attract previous or new workers.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.7 percent.  It will also be interesting to see how employers will deal with the more immediate problem of loosing workers due to the Omicron variant.  This of course is a major concern in the health care sector, but should hopefully be a temporary problem.  This situation shouldn’t have any major impact on the overall unemployment rate, but could influence labour participation rates should the affected workers permanently withdraw their services from the labour market (e.g. retirement).

All in all, one can see that the lower unemployment rates don’t necessarily reflect detrimental aspects of the current labour market situation, especially as they pertain to certain sectors and certain members of the labour force.

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Jan 3

Start Of 2022 Not All That Different From Start of 2021

by bcurry

Well, the start of a New Year has arrived, but it doesn’t feel all that much different from the start of last year.  We are now into another wave of the COVID pandemic, much like we were last year with Delta on the horizon.  Many celebratory and sporting events were either cancelled or reduced with restrictions in place; airline travel has been seriously affected by new cases of the more highly infectious Omicron variant; cruise ships are returning to ports as a result of cases on board; and businesses have had to keep their people working from home wherever possible.  The biggest difference between the two years is the fact that we now have millions of people vaccinated against the coronavirus.  We also have better medical treatments for those who do become infected.  However, hospitals and the health care system are once again being strained by the sudden influx of new cases globally and locally.  COVID continues to affect supply chains around the world, causing serious shortages in many goods and foods.

Unfortunately, the politicization of health measures, including masking and social distancing, is still out there.  However, the big difference is that now the vaccination policies of governments and businesses have come increasingly under attack by the anti-vaxxers.  Even local public health providers have come under attack, many unfortunately being personally threatened and harassed by protesting groups and individuals.  Yes, pandemic fatigue has grown after over two years of combating this virus.  As a result, some states have actually removed certain related health measures and refused to endorse mandated vaccinations within essential services.  Like before, the U.S. appears to be seriously split down the middle, often between Republican and Democratic state legislators and governors.  In some cases, the politicians have taken over from public health officials and are calling the shots, despite record new COVID-related cases and the increasing strain on health care resources within their jurisdictions.  This split is less of a concern in Canada where provincial and territorial governments have relied heavily on public health officials for their expert advice when it comes to setting policies and distributing resources, claiming they are closely following the science involved.

The introduction of new COVID variants and the lack of progress in vaccinating populations in lesser developed countries have ensured that the pandemic remains a global concern.  Let’s be clear, until countries like the U.S. and Canada do more to help out countries in Africa, Asia and Central and South America, the war against COVID will continue for some time.  We need to get over our internal divisions and quickly work together to get this virus under control domestically, while simultaneously working with international organizations and other industrialized countries to speed up assistance to Third World countries.  While the beginning of 2021 offered hope with the amazing advent of new vaccines to protect us from this disease, that same hope needs to be passed along to people in other countries.  Only then can we really hope that 2022 will be a happier and healthier year than 2021 was.

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Dec 31

After Battle With Omicron Variant, We May Be Nearing War’s End With COVID-19

by bcurry

Yes, we are seeing new daily case records being broken since the start of the pandemic.  However, the latest variant, Omicron, may actually be a harbinger of better things to come.  While more highly contagious than the Delta variant, it has shown signs of not being as severe in symptoms as the Delta variant.  Some experts now believe, based on evidence from the U.K. and South Africa, the expected peaking of the surge would eventually lead to a stage where the virus becomes ‘endemic’.  By endemic, one means that this coronavirus would become a less major event, similar to the seasonal flu virus and could be dealt with and controlled through annual flu shots and medical treatments.  Moreover, we would simply have to live with the COVID virus as we now do with other coronavirus, including the common cold virus.  With the latest infections and availability of vaccines, experts now believe that we would be optimistically back to some form of normalcy by the spring at the earliest.

The predictions do bring hope for the New Year once we get through this current fourth wave, expected to peak in mid-January.  However, in the meantime, most of us will have to once again endure certain restrictions and health measures needed to combat the spread of Omicron in the immediate future.  Yes, we have an increasing degree of ‘pandemic fatigue’, but we need to not let our guard down.  We need to respect these restrictions in order to once again mitigate the terrible impact that the pandemic has had on hospitals and long-term care residences.  Since Omicron is so highly contagious, many more health care workers will be affected and test positive, thus leaving fewer workers to care for COVID patients.  After battling this disease over the last two years, front line workers are truly exhausted and demoralized.  Some have even left the health care profession.  In order to help them, some health experts are proclaiming that there is currently a need to overreact rather than underreact.   

Eventually, in order to end this global pandemic, world organizations and industrialized countries will have to ensure that vaccinations are made available to all Third World countries A.S.A.P.  This is no longer an option, but is a necessity to prevent future COVID variants and their spread.  In addition, we need to stop politicizing government imposed restrictions and health measures, including masking and social distancing.  We are in a health crisis and health care systems could collapse under the strain.  British Columbia’s Provincial Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, said in a recent CBC interview that: “ … the virus will eventually become endemic as the season shifts to spring, more children get vaccinated and the spread of infection slows.”  However, she also said that there are still many unknowns ahead.

In conclusion, if we are going to win this war, all of us have to play our parts.  Let’s think about our communities, our seniors and our children.  This way, perhaps we will have a healthier and safer New Year.

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Dec 27

Biden’s Push For Solar Energy In California Contradicted By Fossil Fuel Leases in Gulf Of Mexico and on Public Lands

by bcurry

In August 2021, California regulators voted to require builders to include solar power and battery storage in many new commercial structures as well as high-rise residential projects.  It is the latest initiative in the state’s vigorous efforts to hasten a transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources.  According to the Sierra Club, many California cities have building codes that restrict or ban natural gas in new construction.  Using California’s move to reduce or eliminate a dependency on fossil fuels for electricity production, the Biden administration recently announced that it has approved the installation of two new major solar farms in the California desert.  The Biden administration has promised to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by around half of 2005 levels by 2030 and ween the electricity sector off of fossil fuels by 2035.  In the spirit of this target, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has gone on record as to its commitment for addressing climate change.  The BLM supports Congress’ direction in the Energy Act of 2020 to permit 25 gigawatts of solar, wind, and geothermal production on public lands no later than 2025.

However, while the administration moves forward with developing the renewable energy potential of public lands, it has had less success at halting fossil fuel exploration.  Last November, after a judge ruled against a moratorium on oil and gas drilling lease sales, the Biden administration oversaw the largest offshore lease sale (worth $192 million) in U.S. history in the Gulf of Mexico.  The legal challenge against Biden’s campaign promise to halt oil and gas drilling on public lands that paved the way for the lease sale was mounted by several Republican attorneys general in states bordering the Gulf.  In addition, the Biden administration has so far issued more permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands than the Trump administration did during its first three years.  Environmental advocates argue that the administration could do a lot more to prevent drilling on public lands.  Unfortunately, much of the increase from more Gulf oil will also flow to markets in foreign countries, which in turn will result in increases in green house emissions overseas.

According to the organization Earthjustice, given the fact that 25% of U.S. carbon emissions come from federal oil, gas and coal, there is no way the U.S. can meet its climate obligations by continuing to operate the national program with business as usual.  At the recent COP26 conference in Scotland, President Biden promised to reduce emissions by around 50 percent of 2005 levels by 2030, but the Associated Press noted it could take years to develop the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas leases, meaning they could still contribute greenhouse gas emissions long after that date.  It appears that the U.S. has got itself into a ‘Catch-22’, whereby it shows promise in the area of increasing the sources of renewable energy, while giving in to large fossil fuel companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron and British Petroleum when it comes to oil and gas drilling on public lands and in the Gulf of Mexico.  No matter which way one looks at these recent developments, there is now definitely a contradiction between what the current U.S. government is saying about combating climate change and what is actually being done.

Cimate Change Oil and Gas US

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