FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

May 17

The Role of Conspiracy Theories in Radicalizing North American White Folk

by bcurry

As the recent tragic shooting and killing of innocent blacks by a young white supremacist in Buffalo, New York, demonstrates, there is the growing role of conspiracy theories.  The racist ‘replacement theory’ has become a common far-right ideology and has been connected to multiple mass shootings carried out by white supremacists, including the 2018 Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, 2019 mosque shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, a Black church shooting in Charleston, South Carolina, in 2015 and the 2019 shooting of Hispanics at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas .  Unfortunately, its central ideas are now promoted not just by violent extremists, but by right wing media personalities like Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

The conspiracy theory’s more racist adherents believe Jews are behind the so-called replacement plan.  Broadly speaking, the roots of this ‘replacement theory’ are deep.  In the U.S., one can point to past and current efforts to intimidate and discourage Black people from voting.  The antagonists’ view this as replacing” white voters at the polls — dating to the Reconstruction era after the 15th Amendment made clear suffrage couldn’t be restricted on account of race.  More recently, white nationalists marching at the Charlottesville, Virginia, rally in 2017 chanted “You will not replace us!” and “Jews will not replace us!”

There are Americans and Canadians who believe in conspiracy ideas about immigrants being brought into the U.S. and Canada as part of a political plot to increase non-white voters in support of so-called ‘liberal’ and ‘left-oriented’ political parties.  Besides Fox News, many of the followers prefer watching right-wing networks such as OANN or Newsmax.  Access to such networks is readily available on both sides of the border, often via the Internet.  Extreme nationalist groups in turn promote such conspiracy theories on their on Web sites.  Thus begins the radicalization of young whites, men in particular.  Regrettably, like other conspiracy theories, the ‘replacement theory’ has even been taken up by some right-wing politicians.  The fact is that such theories have no place in the traditional conservative thinking, and certainly not in their platforms.  In the U.S. in particular, one needs Republicans in particular to disavow such theories.

Don’t think for a moment that this theory is only believed by a small number of Americans.  In a poll released last week, the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about 1 in 3 Americans believe an effort is underway to replace U.S.-born Americans with immigrants for electoral gain.  The attention paid by many Republican politicians to what they see as a leaky southern border along the U.S. has been interpreted, at least by some, as a nod to the concern of white people who worry about being “replaced.”

However, while the majority of followers of replacement theory do not overtly promote calls to arms, there are smaller groups of white supremacists who are inclined to support violent tactics.  Indeed, they consider those behind the above noted horrific mass shootings as being saints in their eyes.  They sadly don’t hesitate to use such theories as a means to justify the use of violence.

The question for governments and societies is how to combat the spread of such conspiracy theories and the resulting climate of hate that they support?  There are no easy answers.  It may not be enough to just treat the associated violent behaviour as hate crimes, after the fact.  What is most likely needed is to confront and outright disown such theories and the resulting disinformation, especially emerging from certain media sources.  Political and spiritual leaders have to step up on a daily basis to speak against such divisive conspiracy theories and to promote unity and mutual respect among our citizens.  This will take a massive effort, particularly as hate mongering has simmered in our society for decades.  Much more has to be done to de-radicalize our youth in particular.  De-radicalization is the on-going process of hopefully changing a person’s belief system through such means as peer group and family intervention and various education schemes.

Canada Extremism Extremist Groups Extremist Groups Racism Racism Terrorism US

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May 9

The Internet Was a Blessing Until It Became a Curse

by bcurry

A judge just threw out Donald Trump’s lawsuit against Twitter that challenged his ban from the social media platform.  U.S. District Judge James Donato rejected Trump’s claim that Twitter violated his right to freedom of speech guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.  He simply declared that Twitter is a private company, and ‘the First Amendment applies only to governmental abridgements of speech, and not to alleged abridgements by private companies.’  When Trump’s account (with over 88 million followers) was suspended by Twitter, he went on to set up his own platform Truth Social which apparently has not done very well.  Now, the question arises over whether Twitter’s takeover by Tesla CEO Elon Musk will offer Trump a possible return to the social media platform.

Marshall McLuhan, a well-known Canadian philosopher whose work was among the cornerstones of the study of media theory in the late sixties, coined the expression “the medium is the message” and the term “global village”.  He is credited with predicting the World Wide Web (WWW) almost 30 years before it was invented.  Little did he know, having passed away in late 1980, of the incredible eventual impact on our daily lives of the Internet.  The Internet is this generation’s equivalent to the telegraph, the telephone and the fax machines that allowed us to communication instantaneously and broadly across the globe.  However, as a marvellous communication tool, the Internet has also proven to be more susceptible to the spreading of misinformation and disinformation than any other means in modern times.

When one talks of ‘misinformation’, one is normally referring to suspect, invalid and often poorly researched information passed on by persons to other persons via social media for example.  Often such information is transmitted without real malice, but simply and inadvertently by persons accepting the information as being valid or such that supports preconceived views, referred to a ‘confirmation bias’.  ‘Disinformation’ on the other hand is where someone is deliberately providing false information in support of their causes, goals or conspiracy theories, similar to what we would view as propaganda.  Unfortunately, we are seeing a lot more disinformation being conveyed via the Internet then ever before.  States or organizations that want to control the flow of information for their own purposes are notorious for facilitating the spread of disinformation, especially as a form of mind control within their borders.  One needs to go no further for examples than Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Unfortunately, during the Covid-19 pandemic, certain groups within the U.S. and Canada began disinformation campaigns against the public health measures introduced by many governments to deal with the tragic consequences of Covid on our lives.  The information was used to justify anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-lockdown and other public health mandates, regardless of their evident effectiveness in controlling the spread of Covid and reducing the number of associated deaths and hospitalizations.  These campaigns of course led to numerous protests in both countries easily and quickly arranged via social media, often tying up scarce government resources.  In addition, groups have used the Internet to spread ridiculous conspiracy theories, the most notable being that which promoted the belief that the results of the 2020 Presidential election were affected by corrupt voter fraud.  This culminated in a mob of Trump supporters attacking the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, after Trump repeatedly said that he would never concede the legitimate election.

We must do a better job of educating future generations about the potential pitfalls of relying on one or two sources for information, particularly those who rely on non-verifiable and suspect origins.  We need to be much more suspect when assessing the accuracy and validity of our Internet sources, be they found in social media or on websites.  I might suggest strongly that we include mainstream news media and websites provided by objective professional organizations as an integral and regular part of one’s information sources.  Perhaps this is easier said than done.  After all, access to information via social media in particular is quick and dirty.  Regrettably, this is what the purveyors of disinformation and misinformation are counting on.

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May 5

Impact of Robotics on the Workplace Increased With the Pandemic and Won’t Stop Any Time Soon

by bcurry

For some time now, I’ve been following the use of robotics when it comes to various forms of employment.  Obviously, we have seen the emerging use of robotics in manufacturing and assembly operations, such as in the automotive industry.  However, now we are increasingly seeing the use of robotics in the health care sector, the retail sector as depicted by Amazon’s newest warehouses, the construction industry, and even in the restaurant sector.  The pandemic resulted in even more robotics use as a means to better ensure the health and safety of workers from contact with other workers, patients and air-born viruses in workplace environments.  Experts see organizations adopting robotics increasingly to perform otherwise unsafe or stressful workplace tasks, such as caring for patients in a hospital who are in quarantine or isolation.  They also argue that the use of robotics is not about replacing employees who would traditionally be performing certain tasks, but rather providing an overall enrichment of safety in these environments.  For example, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over the past two years, more than 1 million American healthcare workers were infected with COVID-19 and more than 4,000 of them died.

Now, enter the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and its application to the field of robotics and automation.  AI will allow various forms of user-friendly robotics, including for example advanced remote-controlled humanoid nursing robots in the health care sector.  AI will enable the robot to learn repeated tasks.  Once a robot has repeatedly performed a task, such as removing a blanket from the patient’s bed or retrieving specimens, it will be able to do these tasks without being given step-by-step instructions.  Advances in robotics and AI will see other uses in not only so-called blue collar work, but also in various forms of white collar work.  In the past two years, automation and AI tools have become sophisticated enough to influence professionals and white collar work.  Administrative assistants, radiologists, financial advisers — and now lawyers — have all become the targets of such software.  McKinsey & Company, a global management consulting firm, estimated back in 2017 that 35 percent of all professional tasks can be automated these days.  JP Morgan has already marshalled an army of developers to build software that can do in seconds what it took lawyers 360,000 hours to do previously.

The fact of the matter is that future workforces will work hand in hand together with robots and processes using artificial intelligence.  The implications for workers are varied and enormous.  The current and next generations of workers will have to fully educated, trained and comfortable with this new reality.  As in the past, along with new technologies comes a demand for new skills and knowledge.  There is no sector that is immune to advances made in robotics and AI, some obviously more than others.  As we are already seeing shortages of skilled workers in certain sectors, there will be greater pressure placed on organizations to compensate through the use of automated processes.  Also, whether by design or accident, many of the countries with the most rapidly aging populations already have the most robots.  According to the International Federation of Robotics in 2016, the nations with the highest density of industrial robots included South Korea, Japan and Germany.  At that time, the U.S. ranked eighth among the countries.  With their ageing populations, the use of industrial robots will no doubt increase in both Canada and the U.S. if they are to effectively compete on the global scene.

The pandemic has increased our awareness of our vulnerabilities when it comes to maintaining productivity and private and public services.  One can certainly expect that most sectors will be examining the future ways to avoid the negative impacts of pandemics and climate change on their workforces.  One means to dealing with the changing labour force demographics will be to investigate potential other uses of robotics and AI.  It’s happening now, and there is no stopping the changes that will come about.  Emerging demands will require fresh, dynamic solutions.

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Apr 24

When It Comes to Treating LGBTQ in American Schools, What Happened to Their Parental Rights

by bcurry

On March 28, 2022, Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into the Parental Rights in Education bill into law.  The Act now bars instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through the third grade.  Critics had dubbed it the “Don’t Say Gay” bill which in turn suddenly sparked a national war of words, particularly among the LGBTQ community.  On top of which, the legislation created opposition by Florida’s Disney World against Governor DeSantis.  This has led to the Florida legislature to vote to undo the special district that Disney operates in, potentially affecting Disney’s ability to build new attractions, creating potential hiccups in transitioning to many of its current public services and increased expenses for Disney — which could mean higher prices at the gate.  The resulting economic impact could be massive.

What is even more important is the impact on the rights of LGBTQ parents and gay or transgender students.  Much of the justification put forward for such laws is that it protects the rights of parents, who by all concerned are non-LGBTQ parents.  Those opposed to the law argue that the Act centers around whether it would prohibit the “instruction” or “discussion” of sexual orientation.  Critics of the law say its language “classroom instruction,” “age appropriate” and “developmentally appropriate” is overly broad and subject to broad interpretation.  Consequently, teachers might opt to avoid the subjects entirely at all grade levels for fear of being sued by parents as now permitted under the law.  Opponents of the law also say that banning lessons about gender identity and sexual orientation marginalizes LGBTQ people and their presence in society.  DeSantis appears to love playing with smoke and mirrors.  Andrew Spar, president of the Florida Education Association, said the law is nothing more than a political wedge issue for Republicans.  He notes that elementary schools, especially in kindergarten through third grade, currently don’t even teach these subjects, much like “critical race theory”.

Moreover, there is little recourse left open to LGBTQ parents or students other than filing complaints with federal officials when they believe they are experiencing discrimination in school.  Subsequent to the bill’s passage, U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said that his agency “will be monitoring this law upon implementation to evaluate whether it violates federal civil rights law.”  However, as everyone knows, such processes can often take years to implement, leaving LGBTQ parents and students in the lurch and prone to harassment.

Florida is not the only state that considered such a law, as a number of other conservative states have moved in a similar direction.  Take for example Alabama.  There you have the second openly gay lawmaker, Neil Rafferty, sitting in the state legislature.  As a Democrat, he has spent much of his current term in the Alabama Legislature working to prevent new restrictions on gay and transgender young people.  Mr. Rafferty appealed to his colleagues and constituents with Republican proponents on the basis of their conservatism, arguing that they had no business involving themselves in the decisions of parents, doctors and children.  “Where’s the freedom in that?” he asked. “Where’s small government in that?”

Indeed, there appears to be a fair amount of hypocrisy in the current legislative push by Republicans aimed at protecting some parents’ rights, to the detriment of other parents with different values and circumstances.  It’s obvious that this sudden obsession with eliminating any instruction on sexual orientation — including the LGBTQ history in American — and the banning of related reading materials from libraries is nothing more than a political ploy aimed at securing votes from the social conservative rank and file.  But at whose expense and which freedoms?

With so many more important issues to be concerned about today, does one really need to be sidetracked in this manner?  The mental wellbeing of all students, including LGBTQ students, needs to be addressed, especially in light of the negative impact of the pandemic on their education.  Surely, legislators have better things to do than to play politics with children’s lives and those of their parents!

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Apr 22

Support for and Opposition to the Death Penalty in the U.S. is Mixed Bag

by bcurry

There is the incredible case in Texas of Melissa Lucio who faces execution by lethal injection on April 27th unless action is taken by the state’s parole board and Governor Greg Abbott.  The 53-year-old domestic violence victim and mother of 14 has been on death row since her trial over the 2007 death of her two-year-old daughter.  However, her lawyers argue she “falsely” admitted to killing her daughter after hours of intense police questioning, and that her daughter’s death was an accident and not the result of having been beaten.  The case of course has drawn a lot of attention on the national scene and among state lawmakers in Texas.

Once again, there is rising opposition against the death penalty in the U.S.  For example, the news outlet, The Independent, and the nonprofit Responsible Business Initiative for Justice have launched a joint campaign calling for an end to the death penalty in the U.S.  High-profile executives like Ariana Huffington, Facebook’s Sheryl Sandberg, and Virgin Group founder Sir Richard Branson are part of this initiative, as well as a number of American celebrities.  At last count, there are twenty-seven states across America that still have the death penalty on the books, including Texas.  Amnesty International notes that for every eight people executed in the United States since the 1970s, one person has been wrongfully convicted and later exonerated.  That’s the ones we know about who were exonerated before they were killed.  According the Amnesty International, for the 12th consecutive year, the U.S remained the only country to carry out executions in the Americas in 2020.  After 17 years, the Trump administration had resumed federal executions, eventually putting 10 men to death over five and a half months.  Among Western industrialized countries, the U.S. remains the only country with the death penalty.

In Canada, capital punishment was abolished in 1976 by the Canadian government.  Instead, Canadian courts can impose life imprisonment without the possibility of parole.  However, there is a segment of the population that supports the reinstatement of the death penalty for murder in Canada.  According to a poll by Angus Reid in 2012, a majority of Canadians polled supported reinstating capital punishment, particularly as a perceived so-called ‘deterrent’.  However, this support “drops considerably” when given the choice of life in prison without parole.  Today, the fact is that no federal government would dare support a return to capital punishment as it is not politically a high priority in Canada or an issue with much public support.  It’s highly unlikely that any government or political party would suggest bringing back the death penalty.

According to Amnesty International, by the end of 2020, 108 countries (a majority of the world’s states) had abolished the death penalty in law for all crimes and 144 countries had abolished the death penalty in law or practice.  The fact of the matter is that in those conservative American states, often governed by Republicans, there is little possibility that the death penalty might be banned and replaced entirely by life in prison without parole.  Nevertheless, some states have introduced moratoriums on executions which may or may not continue depending on the politics of the day. 

Once again, the high-profile case of Melissa Lucio, where there are so many unresolved questions surrounding the case and the evidence used to convict her, has raised concerns over the continuing use of capital punishment.  Despite such cases, it appears highly unlikely that the affected state legislatures would be willing to once again debate the use of the death penalty.  It will be very interesting to see whether Texas Governor Greg Abbott will spare the life of this unfortunate woman and mother who appears to be innocent.  The real question is how many innocent people are you okay with being punished so that a guilty person can be executed?  I would answer: “One is too many!”

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Apr 16

Tackling Systemic Racism Which Continues to Exist in American and Canadian Schools

by bcurry

School segregation in the U.S. is defined as the separation of students based on their race to the extent that an institution can be racially predominant by black students or white students.  Currently more than half of all students in the U.S. attend school distracts with high racial concentration.  Racial segregation in schools has a long history that leads up to modern times.  Although enforced racial segregation is now illegal, American schools are more racially segregated now than in the late 1960s, especially in the Northeast U.S.  Much of de facto segregation between Black, Hispanic and White students is the result of where public schools are located and their respective tax base in support of the schools, often referred to as ‘residential segregation’.  Many of the underlying problems of segregation haven’t been solved, even if it’s no longer legal.

Unlike in the U.S., the vast majority of Canadian public schools are financially supported by the provinces, given that each province is responsible for education under the constitution.  While property taxes do support a portion of funding for schools, the province guarantees that additional funding is allocated based on the number of students.  This reinforces the need to ensure adequate funding intended to provide equal access, teaching and curriculum in each school district.  However, this does not preclude the issue of systemic discrimination occurring in schools where visible minorities, including Black students, are in attendance.  Most boards of education don’t deny there is systemic racism in their schools, and have introduced measures in the last few years aimed at dealing with it.  In Ontario, the Ministry of Education conducted a recent review that showed a disproportionate number of Black students are streamed into applied courses — meant for students seeking to go to college instead of university — regardless of academic performance.  This is referred to as ‘streaming for students’ which led to implicit biases whereby a disproportionate number of Black students were prevented from going to university instead of community colleges.  As in the U.S., the review also disclosed that many more Black students received suspensions than White students relative to their proportion of the student population.

Many American schools are segregated by ethnicity and poverty, and for some minority students — particularly the soaring Latino population — the segregation is also by language.  As a result, even the highest-achieving Black and Hispanic students are often denied access to advanced math and science courses in the later grades, although such access is more commonplace for their White peers.  In Canada, the same can be said for new immigrants in particular who, because of their presumed ability in English and their accents, are often forced into remedial classes despite good academic capabilities. Thus, they are being unfairly held back.

Some students believe a key solution is to hire more Black and other teachers representing visible minorities in both countries.  As the population becomes more diverse, it seems only too obvious that such teachers would be in a better position to understand and appreciate the daily challenges that non-White students face on a daily basis.  For example, in a 2016 census of teaching staff, one Ontario school board showed seven percent of staff members identified as Black, while 67 percent identified as White.  That’s in contrast to a student census, which showed 10 percent of its students were Black, while 13 percent were White.  The lack of ethnic diversity among teaching staffs can do nothing but accentuate the prevalence of systemic racism in the eyes of Black, Hispanic and other visible minority students.

While things have improved somewhat in both American and Canadian schools, a lot more needs to be done to deal with systemic racism in the education systems.  In order to ensure equal opportunities for all young people, more funding and resources are needed to raise the standards for public education in each country.  There is an evident need to ensure that school board members, administrative and teaching staffs are sufficiently educated themselves about systemic discrimination and its resulting effects on the future of these young people.  No issue could be more important as there will be even greater population diversity in the coming years.

Canada Education Education in U.S. Race Relations Racism Racism US

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Apr 7

Is the Separation of Church and State Still Possible in the U.S. and Canada?

by bcurry

In both the U.S. and Canada, several religious groups attempted during the pandemic to have certain public health restrictions thrown out by the courts, but to no avail.  They argued that governments were infringing on their rights of assembly and religious freedom, which they felt were guaranteed by their respective constitutions.  However, the courts ruled that there was no such violation of rights since the broad-based restrictions were not specifically directed at religious gatherings, but were directed at places where normally the public would gather, often involving mandated lockdowns. 

Now, I’m no constitutional expert, but under the circumstances the imposition of health-based restrictions appeared to be more than reasonable.  Indeed, many churches, synagogues, mosques and other religious entities were more than happy to comply with the restrictions in their places of worship.  They did so out of concern for the safety and health of their congregations in light of the real dangers attributed to the pandemic.  No one’s specific religious beliefs were placed in jeopardy, and no constitutional rights were violated.  Let’s face it, no one was being persecuted, and churches found alternative ways to effectively serve their parishioners and communities.

Despite all of this, there is little doubt that religious fervour has been heightened among some Christian movements in particular, as evidenced by the growing political involvement of such groups.  Increasingly, right-wing political movements are taking advantage of many believers who are importing their worship of God, with all its intensity, emotion and ambitions, to their political life.  Politicians like Donald Trump had jumped on this band wagon, waving a bible back in June 2020 in front of St. John’s Church in Washington DC for a photo opportunity.  Talk about someone who is obviously irreligious wanting to garner support for his own political ambitions.  For some of his supporters, right-wing political activity itself is becoming a holy act and is often evident at his rallies.

Both the U.S. and Canadian constitutions are designed to prevent any one church or religious institution from having undo influence in the daily act of governance.  This of course is based on the fundamental principle governing the separation of church and state in each country.  However, this does not mean that certain religious groups will not attempt to influence which political parties or candidates are elected.  As in the case of their opposition to government mandates during the COVID pandemic, they spear head other causes such as the ‘right to life’, opposition to gay marriage, and the promotion of conspiracy theories.  Their attitudes are largely framed by an apparent desire to build a nation that actively promotes a particular set of Christian beliefs.

I firmly believe that many of these religious right-wing groups are feeling threatened by what is happening within both countries.  Immigration and high birth rates are moving the population to one of greater cultural and religious diversity, such that within the next decade white Americans and Canadians of Christian faiths will be outnumbered.  They believe that the predicted changes will undermine their Christian values, such that one often hears them, many of whom attend charismatic or evangelical churches, talking about ‘taking back the country.’  With over a hundred million evangelicals in the U.S., their voices make it hard for many politicians to ignore, especially Republicans, seeking election or re-election in many states.  Many are also attracted to populist movements wherever they may emerge.

Just as some churches attempted to support certain political entities in the past, their leaders and parishioners will do so in the future.  The danger is that the abyss between those who promote a state religion and those who support the separation between church and state will continue to grow.  As history has shown, such conflict could eventually lead to dangerous influences on public policy.  Policy which after all results from governance that reflects the current values of the majority of Americans and Canadians, regardless of their particular secular or religious beliefs.

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Apr 4

Much Like Americans and Vietnam, There Is Dissent Among Russians Over The War In Ukraine

by bcurry

It’s interesting to compare the nature of dissent among Americans during the military action in Vietnam years ago, and Putin’s current so-called “special military action” in the Ukraine by Russian forces.  Having lived during the years of the America’s military action in Vietnam, I can recognize the growing dissent among Russians over the Ukrainian invasion.  One has to remember that the U.S. involvement in Vietnam was never officially declared a war by Congress, but was instead acted upon by presidential executive statements.  America paid a terrible price for its involvement in Vietnam — nearly 60,000 killed in action, over 150,000 wounded, and some 1,600 missing.  Then there was the draft, whereby a good number of young draft-aged Americans were forced into the military and ended up fighting in the jungles of Vietnam against determined and aggressive fighters.  The U.S. military bombed the hell out of North and South Vietnam, apparently with little impact.  The administration’s policy excuse was to prevent some form of domino effect in Southeast Asia should the Communists take over all of Vietnam.  Unfortunately for the much better equipped U.S. military, the national desire of the Vietnamese to unite their country and expel all foreign intruders proved to be too much.  After killing thousands of Vietnamese and destroying much of Vietnam’s infrastructure, the Americans were forced to leave the country with the fall of the South Vietnamese capital of Saigon in April 1975.  Estimates for the number of North Vietnamese civilian deaths resulting from U.S. bombing range from 30,000 to 65,000.

As the Vietnamese conflict lagged on, more and more Americans began to question the U.S. involvement and related human and financial costs.  Some dissent took the form of draft-aged Americans fleeing the country, many to Canada which had an open policy for draftees.  Within the U.S., dissent grew among college students and even among many Vietnam vets.  President Nixon took much of the brunt of such anti-Vietnam protests.  Sometimes, protests became violent resulting in hundreds of arrests by the authorities.  Increasingly, the American press began to question the optimistic briefings provided by the military brass, often highlighting the alleged effectiveness of strategic bombings and gains made by ground forces.  However for the first time in history, video of the conflict provided by front-line war correspondents was seen by American television viewers on a nightly basis.  The influence of the American media was especially important at the time and helped to sway opinion against the conflict.

The biggest difference in the case of dissent against Russia’s incursion into the Ukraine is the complete control by Putin’s regime over state media outlets.  In addition, the punishment against Russians openly protesting the war has resulted in immediate imprisonment and the potential for up to 15 years in prison.  However, dissent has been particularly strong among younger and better educated Russians, as demonstrated by the thousands who have already fled Russia to Eastern and Western European countries.  There has even been dissent expressed among some oligarchs who normally are strongly aligned with Putin’s interests.  The Russian military is even more dependent upon conscription to complement its professional army, to the point that Moscow has indicated that it will conscript around 130,000 more military-aged Russians this year.  However, there have been indications that dissent has emerged among those conscripts currently serving in the Ukraine, including the abandonment of positions and deliberate disabling of equipment.  Faced with a committed and fierce Ukrainian opposition and inept military command, the Russian assault on Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv has been stalled. 

As the Russian economy falters and the war goes on and Russian casualties mount, there is little doubt that ordinary Russians will begin to question what the Putin regime is claiming.  A major difference with Vietnam is the fact that today social media is readily available, no matter how much the government attempts to control it.  Scenes of Russian military actions upon civilians, including the elderly and children, are extremely disturbing.  Increasingly, such actions are being depicted as “war crimes” in the eyes of the world.  As was the case in Vietnam, it will be interesting to see if Russian dissent will grow with the increasing scenes of body bags being returned to the homeland?  Such scenes at U.S. military bases greatly influenced the growth of American dissent as time moved on, especially when there was little indication as to an end to the Vietnam conflict.

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Mar 30

Americans Have Even Been Able to Fully Politicize COVID Masking Policies

by bcurry

Want to get a good overview of past pandemics and the current COVID pandemic, I highly recommend that one read “Apollo’s Arrow” by Nicholas A. Christakis.  In it, he highlights how “nonpharmaceutical interventions” such as social distancing, masking and lockdowns helped people get through past pandemics such as those in 1957, 1918 and others.  During those outbreaks, there were no vaccines or other pharmaceutical treatments available for the most part, forcing the authorities to implement masking, quarantine and other spread prevention measures.  Such public health measures were accepted with very little backlash given the severity of the pandemic and fear of exposure which often led to deaths. 

This brings us to the current COVID-19 global pandemic.  In the spring of 2020, the U.S. and most other Western nations were forced to shutdown.  In addition, numerous nonpharmaceutical interventions were introduced, including mandating the wearing of masks in most settings, including those in the transportation, service and retail sectors.  However, no sooner had the requirement been implemented, various Americans cried out that such mandates were an infringement on their rights.  Unlike in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, the simple act of masking became highly politicized, despite what history tells us about the utility of such measures in limiting the exposure of people to the virus.  For the average American, the act of masking was normally done for occasional visits to grocery stores, clinics, pharmacies and on public transportation.  However, for health-care personnel, they were required daily to wear masks to avoid being infected.  As the author points out: “In some photos, their faces were blistered and bruised from wearing tight-fitting masks all day.”  They had no choice.

Recently, you have the so-called “Peoples Convoy” of truckers in the States, who are protesting all public health measures, including masking and vaccine mandates.  Next, one has a group of 21 states (primarily Republican), as well as groups of pilots and flight attendants, asking federal courts to permanently end the Biden administration’s federal transportation mask mandate.  The mandate is set to expire on April 18th, less than three weeks away.  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, reportedly said in a statement announcing the lawsuit that “it is well past time to get rid of this unnecessary mandate and get back to normal life.”  Here you have a Governor who was willing to reduce the budgets of any school boards who defied his “no masking” directive in Florida’s schools. 

Thinking back to two years ago, the airlines were among the first businesses to support masking and testing to ensure the health and safety of their employees and passengers.  Now, several American airlines are claiming that the federal mask mandate and other coronavirus travel requirements are no longer aligned with the realities of the “current epidemiological environment.”  Otherwise, they believe that the COVID pandemic is over and we no longer have to worry about it, especially since one now has widespread vaccine availability and newly available therapeutics.  However, they readily admit that they want to encourage more people to fly by removing some of the so-called hassles such as masks, which can make air travel less comfortable.  However, other major airlines that fly globally intend to keep masking requirements for awhile yet, given the different transportation policies among countries.

Given that experts predict that a sixth wave is expected in the U.S. and Canada this spring, mainly because of the Omicron variant known as BA. 2 which appears to be more transmissible than the original strain, one should consider encouraging people to mask when in public settings.  Mandated masking requirements will hopefully continue to exist in long-term care facilities, senior residences and health care settings for some time to come.  Such requirements are essential to protecting the elderly and those who are immune-compromised.  Many people will continue to wear masks in public as a personal choice and for health reasons.  Hopefully, people will respect their rights to do so whatever their political stance.  Attacking or harassing masked individuals has no place in a free and civil society.  Yes, some will argue that there is some “COVID fatigue”, but surely we can continue to support a little longer those public health measures that helped us limit this pandemic’s horrific impact on families and communities. 

Coronavirus Federal Government US

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Mar 28

What both Canada and the U.S. have in common when it comes to the Artic and Russia

by bcurry

Back in 2016, a report to Congress by the U.S. Department of Defense appeared to call for American ships to challenge Canadian claims in the Arctic.  The U.S. has had three active marine disputes with Canada in the Arctic, including over 21,000 square kilometres in the Beaufort Sea and two smaller areas of the Dixon Passage, between British Columbia and Alaska.  In addition, in the past the U.S. Coast Guard has sent ice breakers through the Northwest Passage without seeking Canadian permission.  Then came issues surrounding access to minerals and fossil fuels located on the Arctic sea floor, especially as climate change and melting sea ice were helping to open up these waters to year round navigation and maritime shipping.  In 2017, this in turn led to President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau jointly signing a moratorium on new oil and gas leasing in Arctic waters.

However, now enters Russia who we all know are very active in opening up their Arctic waters.  In the past, Russia has made it clear it intends to control the so-called Northern Sea Route off its northern shore, a route that significantly shortens the shipping distance between China and Northern Europe.  U.S. officials have complained that Russia is illegally demanding that other nations seek permission to pass and threatening to use military force to sink vessels that do not comply.  Two years ago, Moscow brought its own war games barrelling through the Bering Sea, with Russian commanders testing weapons and demanding that American fishing boats operating in U.S. fishing waters get out of the way — an order the U.S. Coast Guard advised them to comply with at the time.  In addition, Russia has repeatedly sent military aircraft to the edge of U.S. and Canadian airspace, leading U.S. and Canadian jets to scramble to intercept them and warn them away.

Russia is far ahead of both Canada and the U.S. in creating ice-breaking capacity and particularly in the building of large nuclear-powered icebreakers.  Their nuclear propulsion systems allow them to smash through much thicker ice than conventionally powered vessels giving them a full winter capacity to push through the up to three-metre ice encountered at that certain times of the year. In 2019, the American government began pondering the construction of three heavy icebreakers and three medium-sized vessels.  The Trump Administration ordered an overview of the nation’s icebreaker fleet, with an eye toward fielding a new, rejuvenated fleet by 2029.  The current fleet of Canadian Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships, now under construction, will still have limited icebreaking capacity, and to date little progress has been made toward the actual construction of a planned heavy polar icebreaker.  Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns over Russia’s military capability and intentions in our Arctic waters have grown.  All signs indicate that Russia is reinvesting in its military capabilities and presence in the region.

Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand is pledging to modernize the alliance protecting Canada’s North particularly in terms of our Arctic sovereignty.  Hopefully, the Russian threat may actually now lead to Canada and the U.S. to finally reaching agreement on the status of the critical Northwest Passage between the North Atlantic and the Beaufort Sea.  However, some observers will argue that the European Artic waters — comprised of Norway, Denmark and Iceland — are more vulnerable to Russian shipping and military initiatives in the North.  One has to remember that these countries are part of NATO, and we are then, of course, obligated to go to their defence in the event of any military incursion.  Since the Russian threat is also an aerospace one, there is an urgent need to strengthen the current capabilities of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).  First created during the Cold War to protect against a Soviet attack, NORAD is a joint military command between Canada and the U.S. that provides airspace surveillance.  America’s strategic air command’s bombers fly over Canadian aerospace on a daily basis.  However, the technology of NORAD’s north warning system was only last modernized in 1985, and requires an immediate modernization designed to counter imminent dangers of the day — long range bomber threats from the Soviet Union.

What all this means is that Canada and the U.S. had better get their acts together to protect their Arctic maritime and aerospace regions.  The sooner the better!

Canada Climate Change Defence Defence Foreign Policy US

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