FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Jan 18

How Immigration Must Play More Significant Role When It Comes To Future Labour Force

by bcurry

Recently, reports are coming out of China that since the Communist Party took power, China’s population has started to level off.  Soon, India will surpass China in terms of population and population growth.  Much of the Chinese population decline was of course due to deliberate policies by governments, including the previous one-child policy, aimed at lowering its overall population growth.  However, such policies, while effective, have led to major concerns over future labour shortages due to low birth rates and an aging population.  It is reported that by 2035, 400 million people in China are expected to be over 60, accounting for nearly a third of its population.  Whether or not the government can provide widespread access to elder care, medical services and a stable stream of income later in life will also affect a long-held assumption that the Communist Party can provide a better life for its people.  In the case of China, few believe that its restrictive immigration policies will help out in the short-term.

What do these predictions have to do with the North American scene?  The fact of the matter is that both Canada and the U.S. are also facing issues surrounding aging populations, lower fertility rates and their subsequent impact on the labour market and social safety nets.  Simply put, in order to maintain a population via the annual birth rate, one needs to have at least two children born to each couple.  This is referred to as the replacement rate.  In 2020, Canada’s total fertility rate hit a record low.  In addition, in Canada more than nine million baby boomers are set to retire over the next decade, creating a potential labour shortage that, if unchecked, could raise health-care costs, upend pension payments and halt the country’s economic growth.  The current population of Canada is estimated at less than 40 million.  As the population ages, the median age had climbed steadily from 26.2 in 1971 to 41.1 in 2021, a trend observed in many advanced economies including the U.S.

This is why both Canada and the U.S. will continue to rely on immigrants to augment future labour forces.  Restricting immigration for political reasons, such as occurred under President Trump’s administration, will backfire when it comes to the rate of population growth.  Until recently, natural change — births minus deaths — had always been the primary driver of growth in Canada and the U.S.  However, even before the pandemic hit, these aging nations were already experiencing a decline in fertility and increase in deaths.  This is partly why Canada welcomed over 405,000 newcomers in 2021 – the most ever welcomed in a single year. The Federal Government is continuing its ambitious immigration policy by setting targets in the new levels plan of 465,000 permanent residents in 2023, 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. 

However, there is one exception in Canada when it comes to increasing immigration.  According to recent data, the province of Quebec is taking a dwindling share of immigrants to Canada.  Under an agreement between the federal government and Quebec, Quebec controls the number of economic immigrants it takes each year.  In 2022, Quebec brought in roughly 15.7 percent of permanent immigrants to Canada, despite the province representing nearly 23 percent of Canada’s population.  Quebec’s current immigration policy is primarily based on its desire to have immigrants who are capable of living and working in French, Quebec’s official language.  The province’s Immigration Minister, Christine Fréchette, has stated that Quebec has to limit immigration to French speakers to protect the French language.  The minister further made it clear that the province won’t be boosting levels anytime soon.  However, strong opposition to this policy has surfaced within certain key sectors within Quebec, notably within business sectors which already are dealing with labour shortages.  For example, the Quebec Manufacturers and Exporters association said the province desperately needs these newcomers because there are labour shortages everywhere.  The association estimates that some $7 billion (Canadian) in manufacturing output that could have taken place last year was sidelined due to current labour shortages.

As in the case of China, the Quebec provincial government has implemented several schemes to encourage Quebecers to have more children, however with little notable success.  In both cases, government handouts like cash for babies and tax cuts, have failed to change the underlying fact that many young people simply do not want children.  Fertility rates continue to fall as incomes rise and education levels increase, and more women are participating in the labour force.  Other factors have contributed to the reluctance to have more children; including the burden that many younger adults face in taking care of aging parents and grandparents, the high costs of raising and educating children, and the increase in the number of working couples in order to make ends meet.  For these reasons, countries have fewer options other than increasing immigration to offset their aging populations and maintain their standards of living.

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Jan 14

Is Banning Books in American Schools Discrimination Under Civil Rights Legislation?

by bcurry

Back in March of last year I posted a blog on https://froliticks.ca entitled: book-banning-in-american-schools-continues-to-grow-what-next-burning-books/.  In that blog, I outlined the continuing issue of American schools nationwide quietly removing books from their libraries, particularly books dealing with discussions of race, gender, sex, the Holocaust and LGBTQ identities.  Now, the U.S. Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights has opened an investigation into a Texas school district over its alleged removal of books featuring LGBTQ characters — marking the first test of a new legal argument that failing to represent students in school books can constitute discrimination.  The federal government agency is investigating the Granbury Independent School District as the result of a complaint of discrimination lodged last summer by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Texas.  Experts suggest that if the federal government finds in the ACLU’s favour, the determination could have implications for schools nationwide, forcing libraries to stock more books about LGBTQ individuals and requiring administrators, amid a rising tide of book challenges and bans, to develop procedures ensuring student access to books that some Americans, especially right-leaning parents, deem unacceptable.

President Biden’s administration recently interpreted Title IX, the federal law that prohibits discrimination in public schools on the basis of sex, as forbidding discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity – a finding that is key to the ACLU chapter’s argument.  It is predicted that the proposed federal probe is likely to proceed slowly, taking one to two years, and, if successful, could generate penalties for the school district ranging from nothing to a reduction in federal funding to government-mandated training on inclusivity.  In addition, it has been reported that library and free speech advocates are taking notice.  John Chrastka, who heads the national political action committee EveryLibrary, said he was thrilled when he realized the scope and implications of the Texas ACLU’s argument that book banning could violate federal anti-discrimination laws.  This year, Mr. Chrastka said, EveryLibrary plans to repeat that contention in amicus briefs it will file in lawsuits against school book banning.

Unfortunately, proceeding with various forms of litigation takes time and also can result in other consequences when judgements are rendered.  Decisions rendered can open up other cans of worms, including greater availability of and accessibility to teaching of school materials on religion.  However, one must weigh the benefits of having freedom of thought in an open and democratic society, suggesting that any kind of indiscriminate book bans can lead to thought control and authoritarian measures.  Any decision will likely be contested by Texas as a possible infringement of its jurisdiction over education within school districts in the state.  The matter may even eventually end up going to the Supreme Court, which again would further delay any move to eliminate discriminatory and arbitrary book banning in their libraries by School Boards.

In the above noted blog, I claimed that “throughout formal education today, children will be faced with information and discussion about a number of difficult topics — where better than in schools.  People need to place more trust in educators, who after all have extensively studied and researched many of these topics in compiling their curriculum.  Misinformed and indiscriminate censorship doesn’t have any place in these processes, especially where educators and librarians unfortunately can end up facing daily harassment by fringe groups.  Freedom of thought and practice should be the foundation of a public school education, while respecting the rights of all parents and not just a few.”

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Jan 6

Flexible Working Aimed At Improving Work-Life Balance Is Making A Comeback

by bcurry

For the last two decades I have been following workplace trends toward flexible working arrangements offered by employers and the resulting pros and cons.  Now, the issue has once again raised its head as a result of discussions around post-pandemic alternative working conditions, including remote work or various hybrid arrangements.  The Great Recession of 2008 caused a lot of employers to consider alternate and more flexible working arrangements for their employees so as to better retain the most critical members of their workforce.  Struggling to survive the economic downturn, the need for increased productivity became greater than ever, which made it the perfect time for companies to introduce smarter working practices.  In a 2009 survey of 400 employers by the Families and Work Institute in New York found that 81 percent had maintained flexible work arrangements such as telecommuting, compressed workweeks, phased retirement and voluntary reduced hours.  Among companies with 1,000 or more workers, 37 percent used flexible work arrangements to minimize layoffs. 

As one can see, the idea of flexible working arrangements is not a new concept.  If anything, interest in promoting work-life balance has increased as a result of the pandemic’s impact on work and the labour force.  A recent report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) concludes that giving workers flexibility in terms of where and when they work can be win-win for both employees and businesses.  The ILO report further concludes that flexible work schedules can improve workers’ job satisfaction, performance and commitment to an organization — thereby reducing recruitment costs and increasing productivity.

“Flexibility” is now the new magic word for recruiters, and for good rationale as flexibility (or lack thereof) is consistently one of the biggest reasons employees cite for staying or leaving a job.  While pay continues to be paramount for most people, in the current environment companies need to find new ways to distinguish themselves as an employer of choice.  Unfortunately, there are still some employers who fail to see the benefits of offering flexible work arrangements in an era when new technologies better facilitate such opportunities, including remote or hybrid forms of work.  For example, the Canadian federal government recently mandated a policy requiring workers this coming spring to work at least two to three days a week in person, or between 40 to 60 percent of their regular schedule.  This employer is saying that in-person work better supports collaboration, team spirit, innovation and a culture of belonging.  While the federal Treasury Board is arguing that the employer has the right to determine where employees work, several federal unions are going to the courts to argue against the policy.  This has angered thousands of employees who currently have flexible working arrangements, especially as they are currently in contract negotiations.  However, I believe that the primary drive behind this employer’s decision has more to do with management’s continuing distrust in not having in-person accountability and supervision, believing other arrangements negatively affect productivity.

However, most experts agree that, in what continues to be a tough economic climate, empowering employees with the right tools and working environment will have numerous flow-on benefits; including improved customer service, retaining talent, ultimately giving the business a significant competitive advantage.  Most experts would agree that giving workers flexibility in terms of where and when they work can be win-win for both employees and businesses.  The above noted ILO report echoes the findings of many other recent studies and surveys.  While salary, benefits and work security have historically topped the list of sought-after incentives, multiple post-pandemic polls have found workers, especially women, increasingly prioritizing work-life balance.  The main question now is whether or not employers can really afford to not seriously consider promoting work-life balance through greater flexible working conditions?

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Jan 1

How Is Climate Change Affecting Our Younger Generation?

by bcurry

You may have heard of the terms “eco-anxiety” or “eco-distress” being used when one talks about the psychological impact of climate change on people, especially youth.  Unless one is living on another planet, one cannot help but recognize the extremes we are witnessing with respect to our climate in recent years, even by former deniers.  Across the world, we are seeing more severe weather resulting in flooding, droughts, wildfires, heat waves, tornadoes, etc., etc.  This phenomenon has led to many of us to question the future of humankind in light of one major disaster after another.

The grim forecasts have even led to something referred to as “reproductive anxiety”, whereby the young generation in particular is seriously questioning whether or not to have children?  On the one hand, people look at the carbon print attributed to having another child born.  On the other hand, some question whether it is the responsible thing to do in having a child born into an era of climate and environmental crises.  This tends to be an issue primarily among North American and European highly educated classes, who have the luxury of considering all the alternatives.  After all, it is the industrialized countries that produce the vast majority of fossil fuel emissions and greenhouse gases. 

One can certainly appreciate such arguments among today’s younger generation as we begin a new year.  We appear no closer to resolving the issue than we were five decades ago.  This has left us with an air of extreme pessimism, especially given recent world events.  Governments pay a lot of lip service to reducing carbon and other detrimental emissions, without actually achieving much of anything.  However, where I disagree is over the issue of where our future environmentalists, scientists, engineers and other professionals will come from.  We have come to believe that we have to better adapt our dwellings, infrastructure and technologies to meet the existing climate change challenges.  We will rely heavily on the creativity and productivity of our youngest to commit to developing and implementing new forms of adaptation and effective policies to deal with the multitude of climate change impacts.

Numerous technological experiments are already underway and it is up to the next generation to continue these initiatives.  Many of us are fortunately in a position to encourage and support the educational endeavours of our children, especially in the industrialized countries.  However, we must realize that the bulk of the impacts of global warning will occur in emerging or lesser developed countries, such as threats of mass starvation, conflict, rising sea levels, deaths and species extinctions.  For this reason, we must also support the work of persons in those affected countries, of which there are many.  If we do not do more, one can expect that migration from these countries to North America and Europe will continue at even greater rates.

As for the older generation, we must do our fair share of sacrifices.  This could mean adapting new forms of green technologies to reduce our carbon footprint.  There may be some ways in which to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, including through less air and motor vehicle travel.  How we heat and cool our homes is another area where changes can be made.  Promoting more urban intensification is also something we should consider, thereby reducing single home dwellings and commuting to work.  We have already seen the impact of working from home on travel.  We need to better inform ourselves of climate- and energy-related challenges so as to better educate our children and grandchildren.  As they say, ignorance is no excuse!

As in the case of Sweden’s Greta Thunberg, we have to encourage and support young environmental activists.  At age 15, she started spending time outside the Swedish Parliament to call for stronger action on climate change and later sailed in a yacht to North America, where she attended the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit.  It took some time for her parents to eventually support her activism.  We need more young people like Ms. Thunberg to come forward and demand that more needs to be done to address climate change issues.  Happily, she has been joined by other activists around the world.

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Dec 21

Differences in Governance Systems in Canada and the U.S. Do Matter

by bcurry

Back in high school and in university we were introduced to the two systems of governance in Canada, Great Britain and the U.S.  Canada like the U.K is a parliamentary system, with the normal three levels of governance: the legislature, executive and judiciary components.  As a republic, the U.S. has a similar constitutional makeup, although how each of the members is selected varies greatly.  In Canada, the Prime Minister is selected by which party gets the most seats in the House of Commons.  The PM also sits in Parliament.  Sometimes, if a party doesn’t win the majority of seats to form a government, the party with the most seats can negotiate with another party to form what is referred to as a “minority government”.  Minority governments are tricky because they can be toppled by a “confidence vote” on critical motions such as a budget.  Canada currently has a minority government as a result of the last federal election in September 2021. The PM currently selects the members to Cabinet who are normally members of Parliament, unlike in the U.S. where the President selects Cabinet members who do not sit in Congress.

In the U.S., citizens vote separately for the President and for candidates to the House of Representatives and the Senate, often in what are referred to as “mid-term elections”.  Unlike in Canada where there are mainly five official parties, the U.S. only has two parties: the Democrats and the Republicans.  As a result, Congress can often see a split in control between the House of Representatives and the Senate, as is the case now with the Republicans controlling the House and the Democrats the Senate.  In addition, there are those members who are independents.  The Canadian Senate on the other hand is made up of appointed members (by the Governor General on the PM’s recommendation) who now do not have any party affiliation.  Compared to the American Senate, the Canadian Senate does not have much power, especially when it comes to financial matters such as the budget.  It examines bills referred from the House and can recommend amendments which the governing party can accept or ignore in the final reading before parliament.  While committee hearings before the U.S. Senate can make or break policies or federal appointments, the Canadian Senate’s committees can simply provide reports on selected subjects which the Government most often ignores and get shelved.

Appointments to the Supreme Court are a whole other matter.  In the U.S., such appointments are highly politicized and depend on which party the President and Senate members come from.  In recent years, the majority of Supreme Court justices have been appointed under Republican regimes, resulting in a prevalent conservative court.  In Canada, on the other hand, Supreme Court appointments are more or less apolitical and made to reflect regional, ethnic and affirmative action considerations.  Frankly, given recent decisions by the American Supreme Court (e.g. Roe vs. Wade), I must say that I prefer the more independent Canadian version when it comes to appointing jurists.

There will always be debates over which system is better.  The fact of the matter is that both have their benefits and flaws.  One major concern with the American system is how the President is elected and the role of the “electoral college”.  For example, in the case of Donald Trump, he had smaller percentage of the popular vote than Hillary Clinton and yet won the election.  In both countries, it is especially important to win certain urban and rural areas in order to be politically successful.  For this reason, parties target certain key states in the U.S. and certain key provinces in Canada.  One major difference is how candidates in the election process are funded.  In the U.S. there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as Super PACs (political action committees).  For example, this year’s midterm election was expected to set a new spending record, with over $9 billion being raised. This is significantly higher than the previous record of $7 billion, which was set in 2018.  In Canada, contributions to candidates are far less and are regulated by controls enforced by an independent agency, namely Elections Canada.

To change the current governance systems in both countries would require significant constitutional amendments which don’t appear to be on the horizon anytime soon.  I would suggest, maybe just maybe, the time is right for governments to re-examine the governance processes in light of our histories and the continuing changes in both societies.

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Dec 11

Issues Raised Over Military’s Junior R.O.C.T. Programs in American High Schools

by bcurry

Recently, I read an article in the New York Times (Times) which highlighted the apparent mandatory participation of high school students in the military’s Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (J.R.O.C.T.) program.  The article points out that J.R.O.T.C. programs, taught by military veterans at some 3,500 high schools across the country, are supposed to be elective, and the Pentagon has said that requiring students to take them goes against its guidelines.

In Canada, over 57 000 youth, aged 12-18 participate in the after school and summer Cadet program: supervised and led by over 9000 military and civilian members; supported by their communities, sponsors, the Canadian Armed Forces, and the Navy, Army Cadet and Air Cadet Leagues of Canada.  Cadets generally run activities one night per week, and one weekend per month, with additional opportunities for unique experiences during the summer and throughout the year.  As in the case of the J.R.O.C.T. program, the cadet program markets once in a lifetime opportunities that develop leadership, citizenship, and self-confidence.  However, unlike the J.R.O.C.T. program, it is completely voluntary.

The Times found the vast majority of the schools with those high enrollment numbers were attended by a large proportion of non-white students and those from low-income households.  The role of J.R.O.T.C. in U.S. high schools has been a point of debate since the program was founded more than a century ago.   What is disconcerting is that in many schools a student is automatically enrolled, and must put in a request in order to leave the program.  Some have described such a military program as a means to indoctrinate young people and a form of “brainwashing”.  Others, including civilian teachers, are uncomfortable with military posters and recruiters on campus and the curriculum taught in J.R.O.T.C. classes, especially as it pertains to U.S. history regarding foreign policy and military initiatives oversees (e.g. Vietnam).  Some high school freshmen are also in J.R.O.T.C. at the start of the school year in part because of a shortage of physical education teachers.

These types of military sponsored programs advertise their worth in terms of better attendance and graduation rates, and fewer discipline problems at school.  However, critics have long contended that the program’s militaristic discipline emphasizes obedience over independence and critical thinking. The Times found the program’s textbooks falsified or downplayed the failings of the U.S. government, suggesting the promotion of “fake history”.  It is asserted by some opponents that the program’s heavy concentration in schools with low-income and non-white students helps propel such students into the military instead of encouraging other routes to college or jobs in the civilian economy.  I am a firm believer that what is needed by young people is more in the line of developing “self-discipline” and “commitment” to their studies and communities.  After all, schools are expected to provide guidance and programs aimed at self-discipline and other behavioural issues.  Not all young people respond well to the forced adherence to disciplinary measures and regimentation. 

Yes, in both Canada and the U.S. without compulsory military service, there is a shortage of personnel in the professional military.  However, a mandatory J.R.O.C.T.-like program in high schools is not going to resolve the problem.  The requirements of the modern military today are totally different from years ago.  Recruiters today are looking more for better educated and more technically savvy candidates.  Indeed, they may be better off promoting military service at the post-secondary level, especially were STEP programs are available.  If eventual serving in the military subsidizes post-secondary tuitions and other expenses, then perhaps more young people would voluntarily consider such a program.  Simply having a high school diploma no longer cuts the mustard.  Governments will have to consider improving wages, working conditions and benefits just like employers in the private sector.  The concept of “patriotism” can go only so far in today’s competitive society.

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Nov 22

Online Gambling Just One More Factor Leading to Gambling Addiction

by bcurry

In 2011, a study of problem gambling by David Hodgins, the head of the University of Calgary’s Addictive Behaviours Laboratory, was published in the medical journal The Lancet.  According to the study, online gambling is giving easy access to future addicts without having to set foot in a casino or betting parlour.  Hodgins noted that gambling disorders are often found in conjunction with other mental health and substance-abuse disorders.  In addition, experts believe that online gambling provides exactly what most addicts are looking for — anonymity.  New Canadian research shows that gamblers have “blind spots” in recognizing addictive behaviour in themselves, traits that could make online gambling even more dangerous.  In 2010, there were an estimated 2,500 illegal and unregulated gambling websites already in existence.  Governments both in Canada and the U.S. realized that they had no choice but to introduce legislation regulating online gambling and getting a monetary share of the market for the government coffers.  The latter rationale became a real driver for public support for government-regulated and safer online gambling.  However, the always-on nature of the Internet is forcing many countries, states and provinces to re-evaluate their gambling laws in order to address new trends such as betting on the outcome of a video game, playing poker online or online betting on sports of all sorts.

In both countries, the recent arrival of sports online betting pressured federal, state and provincial governments to remove previous bans on single-game sports betting.  In Canada, the federal ban on single-game sports betting was officially lifted in August 2021. Since then, all provinces have gotten into the hypercompetitive iGaming market.  In the U.S., the Supreme Court in 2018 opened the door to widespread sports betting.  However, a recent New York Times investigation found that government oversight of sports betting offers scant consumer protections and mainly looks to the industry to police itself.  In addition, there are dedicated minimal funds by the gambling industry to combat addiction.  Furthermore, several sports betting sites in the U.S. allow gamblers to put money in their accounts via credit cards.  Furthermore, gambling companies have carpeted social media, stadiums, billboards and airwaves with advertisements plugging risk-free bets and other promotions to entice new patrons.  In contrast, several countries like Spain, Italy and Australia restricted such ads, promotions or endorsements.  In Ontario, which this year became Canada’s first province to allow sports betting, the government outlawed advertisements of free bets and other promotions.  Within months companies, including DraftKings and BetMGM, were penalized by Ontario for breaking this law, although the fines were a joke when compared to their revenues.

The issue of online gambling while at work has even surfaced in some jurisdictions and among employers.  For example, in 2010 a new threat to Quebec’s productivity was raised across the province: online gambling.  Survey findings released by Montreal polling firm CROP Inc. found that one in 10 Quebecers confessed they’d been tempted to place bets over the Internet instead of doing work.  The findings also showed that 37% of respondents said their employers had no policy on using the Internet for personal interest, including online gambling, during work hours.

Like other addictions, gambling can become highly addictive.  It is estimated that as many as one in five persons who frequently gamble, online or otherwise, could become addictive to gambling.  An Ipsos-Reid survey in 2010 in Ontario found that 92 percent of adults could recognize risky gambling behaviour in others.  However, when reflecting on their own tendencies, one in five gamblers said they had engaged in the same risky behaviours over the past year, creating “blind spots” in their perception of themselves.  Despite the oversight by government agencies and commissions, the fact is that the amount of funds dedicated to help prevent gambling addiction and help those already addicted are miniscule compared to the billions the industry brings in.  According to the recent New York Times article, last year the U.S. government didn’t allocate any money to prevent or treat gambling addiction.  As per a group that represents state employees who oversee such funds, states had only set aside a total of $94 million (U.S.).  That was 0.3 percent of what state and federal governments allocated for substance abuse.

Why not just prevent people with known gambling addiction to access such sites?   Some jurisdictions in the U.S. and Canada do maintain databases of people who have asked to be blocked from gambling.  However, jurisdictions often leave it up to betting companies to download and abide by updated versions of the lists.  Several now require sports-betting companies to maintain their own self-exclusion lists, despite the evidence that companies have resisted sharing them with competitors or regulators.

While we have dealt with unregulated sports-betting and other gambling Internet sites, the fact is that we have simply replaced them with legally licensed sites.  While government regulation may appear to reassure people about the oversight of such online gambling, the fact is that the more people bet, the more governments collect taxes on gambling.  One result is that jurisdictions have, in many ways, given gambling companies free rein.  Meanwhile, the issue of gambling addictions continues and many people’s lives continue to be destroyed.

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Nov 18

For Some Reason, We Don’t Talk Enough About ‘Methane’ as a Greenhouse Gas

by bcurry

In 2021, a headline about global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) read: “CO₂ reaches its highest level in more than 4 million years.”  However, the more potent greenhouse gas ‘methane’ is not given as much media attention as CO₂.

If it escapes into the atmosphere before being burned, as the main component of natural gas, methane can warm the planet more than 80 times as much as the same amount of CO₂ over a 20-year period.  Recent data from the European Union show Canada is the only G7 country where methane emissions have increased since 1990, although the rate of increase is slowing.  Studies suggest the amount of methane released is probably underestimated.

2021 was a big year for energy markets as indicated by increases in natural gas prices. Natural gas production has more than doubled this year in many parts of the world.  In addition, in Canada there are substantial or potential deposits of shale gas in all provinces and territories except Manitoba, Prince Edward Island and Nunavut.  To get at shale gas, one has to use a process known as “fracking”.  Fracking involves injecting chemicals under high pressure into drilled wells to fracture geological formations below and allow for the release of larger quantities of both crude oil and natural gas.  In the last 20 years, large-scale commercial production of much deeper shale-gas reservoirs has become possible with new drilling techniques that combine two different technologies — horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. This process involves drilling the gas well vertically from the surface before bending it at a certain depth to penetrate the shale-gas layer horizontally or diagonally.  However, like standard natural gas drilling, the fracking process also releases methane as a byproduct.  It has been found that flares, used to dispose of unwanted methane from wells, burn off far less than the 98 percent of the gas they are assumed to.  Fracking in Canada and the U.S. now involves hundreds of new sites every year.

A recent survey of oil and gas facilities in Canada found widespread methane releases. Satellite imagery saw giant plumes of the gas escaping landfills, and a cloud of methane was detected over a natural gas field in Canada.  It identified a hidden source of pollution from one of North America’s most prolific production basins along the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary.  However, on a broader scale, satellites can have difficulty tracking offshore emissions and releases in higher latitudes.  In the U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data from 2019 includes emissions from drilling and fracking sites, but excludes emissions from offshore drilling, as well as some parts of the oil and gas supply chain like pipelines or processing plants.  As noted by recent research, the official data is likely to greatly underestimate actual emissions from oil and gas production, in part because it does not properly account for leaks from equipment, which can be a significant source of emissions.  As well, poorly maintained sites often mean more leaks that go undetected for longer, making them highly polluting.

Today, questions over just how much methane Canada pumps into the atmosphere come as the federal government expands regulation of the gas.  Canada is now developing regulations that would apply to all natural gas facilities, minimize use of flares, ensures those that exist work properly, increase inspection and require equipment upgrades.  The new rules are to include comprehensive, consistent emission monitoring and reporting.  The Biden administration is in the process of reinstating methane regulations relaxed by President Donald Trump.

Overall, it would appear that the oil and gas industry does not do as much monitoring of methane gas releases as it appears to do for CO₂.  There is little doubt that to deal with related environmental concerns, both industry and governments have to do a much better job of controlling widespread methane releases.  For whatever reason, this critical greenhouse gas fell off the radar.  With the evident continuing reliance on natural gas for heating and electricity production in North America, there is an immediate need to get a better handle on monitoring and release controls.  Moreover, methane emissions from leaking wells could far outweigh the benefit from replacing other fuels when it comes to our fragile environment.

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Nov 14

Recent Layoffs Among White-Collar Workers and CEOs Can’t Stop Saying Sorry

by bcurry

Last August a survey was released by consultant PwC which polled more than 700 U.S. executives and board members across a range of industries.  It found that half of respondents said they’re reducing headcount or plan to, and 52 percent had implemented hiring freezes.  The projected layoffs were seen to especially hit the high tech and financial sectors, primarily among middle- and lower-management.  Since rising interest rates in March resulted in home sales slowing to a crawl, there have also been widespread cuts for realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers.  Unlike blue-collar workers where there is a current shortage of labour, most analysts would agree that this particular round of layoffs will have its greatest impact among white-collar workers.

As of today, forecasted layoffs in significant numbers are happening across the U.S. and Canada.  Many are occurring among some of our largest employers, including for example: Meta Platform Inc., Netflix Inc., Shopify, Wayfair Inc., Oracle Corp, and Apple Inc.  Walmart Inc., Ford Motor Co., Gap Inc., Zillow Group Inc. and Stanley Black & Decker Inc. also announced they plan to cut jobs at their head offices.  Of course, Elon Musk, following his purchase of the company, leads the way with his recent announcement that half of Twitter’s workforce is being dismissed.  These are all companies that did well during the pandemic, notably because of the growth in on-line sales and business.  However, now that the pandemic is coming to an end and interest rates are rising and stock price valuations are in decline, the boom appears to be over.  Thousands upon thousands are being laid off, largely because of massive hiring during the pandemic itself and management’s misreading of the markets.

The layoffs couldn’t have come at a worst time for white-collar workers given that the labour market today is extremely tight, with about 1.9 available jobs for every unemployed person.  What is interesting, many CEOs are openly expressing regret by stating that the situation is largely their fault.  They obviously recognize that they’ll probably need to hire back some of the talented and skilled people they laid off, and could be positioning themselves to recruit again when the recovery comes.  This is being done out of self-interest and to maintain a good product name.  At the same time, about two-thirds of firms surveyed are boosting pay or expanding mental-health benefits, largely to retain the remaining workers.  The most common move is making remote work permanent for more people.  For this reason, many CEOs are trying to appear to initiate the layoffs in as humane way as possible.

Otherwise, just saying you’re sorry is not enough!  There will obviously be a need to keep doors open once the economy recovers.  One question will be the nature of employment and the workplace down the road.  While replacing blue-collar workers with robotics for example is increasingly a concern, the advent of the greater use of artificial intelligence will be an issue for white-collar workers.  For example, Deutsche Bank’s CEO John Cryan hinted in 2017 that half its workers could be replaced by machines.  According to a survey in the same year by Greenwich Associates, around 75% of financial firms were intending to either explore or implement artificial intelligence technologies.  Among Canada’s five big banks, there are artificial intelligence-powered chatbots that now interact with customers through a bank’s digital channels — online, mobile and social media, and programmable software bots perform administrative tasks such as processing mortgage applications.  These virtual machines are already being tasked with some heavy lifting.

Otherwise, no one’s job is guaranteed to be safe now or in the future, including many of today’s white-collar jobs.  There is little doubt that, as more permanent cost cutting measures occur, companies will be looking to enhance their productivity and lower labour costs through the use of new technologies.  There is no profession or field of employment that is safe anymore.  The fact that CEOs are currently letting go so many white-collar workers, may also offer them an opportune time to look at new replacement strategies.  I wonder if CEOS like Elon Musk will continue to say ‘sorry’?

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Nov 9

Where Is America’s Democracy Heading?

by bcurry

Now that the mid-term elections are more or less over, there are a lot of questions about where America’s democratic processes are heading?  This is particularly true given the following issues that surfaced during the voting processes.

  • Several states instituted new restrictions on how people could vote, some moving to in-person voting as a requirement.  This particularly had a negative impact on seniors and persons with mobility disabilities.  In some cases, it also affected marginalized groups.  For example, Florida had new elections legislation affecting voting in the State, which voter advocates argued disproportionately affected Black voters — making it harder for many to vote — and created an environment of confusion and fear.
  • Various voting station monitoring processes were introduced, some of which definitely intimidated certain voters.  In a couple of instances, authorities had to remove armed monitors — reminiscent of Russian elections — from polling stations.
  • Several states had candidates, all Republican, whose platforms included the open but false belief that the 2020 Presidential election was not legitimate.  Some of these candidates were running for positions of Senator, Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State.  If elected, all could have a serious impact on how future elections are run.
  • Right-wing roadshows, such as the ReAwaken America Tour, promoted Christian nationalism before the mid-terms.  According to Samuel Perry, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Oklahoma and the co-author of the book ‘The Flag and the Cross: White Christian Nationalism and the Threat to American Democracy’, a growing number of Republicans are embracing the ideology of Christian nationalism.  Such groups advocate the fusion of American civic life with a particular kind of white, conservative Christianity, a contrary notion to the separation of church and state.
  • As Republican candidates across the country continue to amplify former President Donald Trump’s false claims of corrupted elections, officials were ready for disruptions after the polls closed.  Already declared, activists and lawyers are prepared to challenge ballots and dispute counting procedures, and losing candidates who cast doubt on the integrity of the process may file lawsuits.
  • Not long ago, the fight against disinformation focused on the major social media platforms, like Facebook and Twitter. When pressed, they often removed troubling content, including misinformation and intentional disinformation about issues. Today, however, there are dozens of new platforms, including some that pride themselves on not moderating — censoring, as they put it — untrue statements in the name of free speech.

These are only a few of the anomalies that were witnessed during yesterday’s mid-term elections.  The continuing polarization of American politics was clearly on display.  There appears to be no real chance for compromise in Congress which will leave President Joe Biden with few legislative options during the remainder of his term in office.  It can only be expected that the same election issues will surface in the next presidential election, if not more so.

Even the U.S. Supreme Court has increasingly demonstrated in recent decisions that political ideology plays an important role, especially when judges are appointed by Republican or Democratic administrations.  Clearly, there now has surfaced a serious negative impact on the courts as neutral bodies governed by the laws of the land and the will of the peoples’ elected representatives.  So much for checks and balances related to the three branches of governance!

Other democracies are closely watching what is happening in the America and some are very concerned about the situation.  Studies have even shown that young people in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. are increasingly cynical about the ability of democracies to effectively govern, leading today’s youth away from representative government.  Some young people appear ready to abandon democracy, expressing concerns for their futures and the belief that the current system has failed them.  In the past, foreigners have looked to American democracy as a model to replicate in their countries.  Sadly, this may no longer be the case.

Donald Trump Elections Joe Biden Republican Party US US Politics

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