FROLITICKS

Using the Trump administration’s excuse of targeting suspected drug shipments off Venezuela’s coast by military means is not defensible and possibly dangerous for U.S. foreign policy.  After all, Venezuela is a sovereign state, and any future incursion into its coastal waters or its territory would be considered by international law to be an act of war.  Past history has shown that American interference in Central and South American countries has not fared well. 

Long before the U.S. military’s involvement in the region became so contentious, the U.S. under President James Monroe asserted that it could use its military to intervene in Latin America, often referred to as the “Monroe Doctrine”.  At that time there were concerns over European meddling in the western hemisphere.  Today, the issue is primarily with the growth of China’s influence in the region.  In the 1840s, President James K. Polk invoked the doctrine to justify the Mexican-American War, which produced the U.S. conquest of Mexican lands now comprising states such as California, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico.  That humiliating outcome and other U.S. military interventions in Mexico in the 1910s, profoundly shaped Mexico’s political identity, fostering a strong sense of nationalism in opposition to the U.S. which often continues to be seen today.

The first notable modern times example was the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, an abortive and disastrous invasion of Fidel Castro’s Cuba by some 1,500 Cuban exiles opposed to Castro’s regime. The invasion was financed and directed by the U.S. government under President Kennedy’s administration and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), resulting in the deaths and imprisonment of the invaders.  Cuba’s relations with the U.S. went down hill from thereon, leading to greater reliance on aid, including military aid, from the Soviet Union.

The next worst example was in early September 1973, when the Chilean military, aided by the U.S. and the CIA, staged a coup against and killed President Salvador Allende, who was at the head of the first democratically elected Marxist government in Latin America.  Under General Pinochet, who replaced Allende, a series of human rights abuses in Chile occurred as part of his brutal and long-lasting campaign of political suppression through torture, murder, and exile.  Despite Chileans’ subsequent opposition, Pinochet ruled the country with American support until 1990.  In exile, Pinochet died in 2011.  A Chilean court opened a criminal investigation into the circumstances of Allende’s death, long suspected to have been orchestrated by the CIA. 

Most recently, Trump threatened to take over the Panama Canal and to bomb Mexican drug labs.  His administration has thrown itself into Brazilian domestic politics on behalf of former President Jair Bolsonaro.  Earlier in the year, a Trump executive order placed heavy tariffs on Brazilian exports in a move against Brazilian authorities involved in the prosecution and conviction of Bolsonaro for plotting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election. This was despite the fact that the conviction was subsequently upheld by that country’s Supreme Court.  Earlier this year, the administration also offered a $20 billion loan to prop up the political fortunes of President Javier Milei of Argentina and to purchase Argentina’s beef to offset rising beef costs in the U.S.   In 2023, as a member of the Libertarian Party, Milei ran for president as part of La Libertad Avanza, an extreme right-wing political coalition. 

President Trump announced on November 28^th that he would grant a full and complete pardon to a former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández.  Associated with drug cartels, Hernández was at the center of a sweeping drug case.  Last year, he was found guilty beyond a shadow of a doubt by an American jury of conspiring to import cocaine into the U.S.  Certainly, this represents a very strange move given the administration’s formal declaration of war against the drug cartels.

In the past, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that efforts by U.S. drug enforcement officials to cut off narcotics trafficking by intercepting boats, trucks and horses laden with drugs and arresting the smugglers were not bold enough.  He has since helped steer the Trump administration toward a much more aggressive and often deadly tactic: the use of military force to destroy suspected drug boats and kill all the people on board, without any legal process.  Rubio has also long sought the ouster of leftist strongmen in the region, particularly the leaders of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, whose governments he has called “illegitimate”.  Last August, Rubio ordered the State Department to increase a reward to $50 million for any information leading to the arrest and conviction on U.S. drug charges of Venezuela’s current president, Nicolás Maduro.  During the first Trump administration, Rubio apparently played a leading role in pushing the president to try to oust Maduro from power.  Thus, the saga continues.

In a part of the world where the U.S. has a long history of military intervention and support for dictatorships in Latin America, in more recent years there has been a visceral rejection of the idea of American-imposed regime change.  The real possibility of American military incursion in Venezuela
would once again raise the specter of past U.S. foreign policy blunders in Latin America.  Also, it is noteworthy that no senior aide close to Trump reportedly has a long history of working on Latin America
policy.