FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Sep 23

Dispute Between Canada and India Greatly Affects U.S. As Well

by bcurry

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said on Monday that “agents of the government of India” had carried out the assassination of a Sikh community leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar (a Canadian citizen), in British Columbia earlier this June.  This of course was an explosive allegation that has further soured relations between the two nations.  India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the accusation “absurd.” The two leaders met briefly at the Group of 20 summit meeting in India earlier this month..  Trudeau stated last week in Parliament that Canada had credible information that “agents of the government of India” had carried out the assassination of Nijjar.  A formal investigation is on-going.  At the summit meeting, Trudeau met briefly with Modi and raised the matter with him.  Mr. Modi “completely rejected” the allegations.

Since then, Canada was forced to cancel a scheduled trade mission to India and postponed a possible trade agreement between the two countries which had been negotiated for over a year. 

In turn, the Indian government temporarily blocked the issuance of visas to Canadians wishing to visit India.  This will affect Canadians of Indian descent, Indian students studying in Canada and family members visiting in Canada.  Both countries expelled diplomats from their respective embassies.  India for some time has also accused Canada of providing shelter to “Khalistani terrorists and extremists” who threaten India’s security.  Khalistan is what Sikh separatists call the independent state they seek to create in India.

The situation regarding the Sikh community is an important one given that Canada is now home to the largest Sikh population outside India, with about 770,000 people who reported Sikhism as their religion in a 2021 census.  Sikhs hold a prominent place in Canadian society and politics.  In the federal government, the head of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, is Sikh.

The current diplomatic dispute places President Biden in a tough and very sensitive place.  On the one hand, he has to recognize Canada’s right to defend its sovereignty.  After all, the U.S. would do the same under similar circumstances where American citizens are attacked in their country by foreign agents.  However, Biden is being forced to maintain a delicate balance between the interests of two democratic allies.  The White House has declared that it is waiting for the formal investigation to conclude before weighing in, but it pushed back on criticism that the U.S. is trying to avoid antagonizing India because of its important strategic role.  As reported by the Washington Post, India is among the world’s most populous countries, occupies a strategic location in the Asian subcontinent — notably opposite to China — and is home to a growing technology sector. The U.S. and India recently established a high-level initiative on defence and emerging technologies that will, among other things, promote joint production of defence equipment, including military jet engines, long-range artillery and armoured infantry vehicles.  However, the relationship is complicated by India’s poor record on domestic human rights, its reliance on discounted Russian oil and its neutral position vis-à-vis the Russian-Ukraine war.  Biden has raised the issue of Modi’s crackdown on dissent and his persecution of religious minorities in India.  Biden is asking both Canada and India to cooperate in the incident’s formal investigation in order to end the dispute as soon as possible. 

Those perceptions of peaceful Sikh advocacy for independence in India faced a jolt in 1985, when a bomb went off on an Air India flight from Canada to India via Britain.  The explosion off the coast of Ireland killed the 329 people, including several Canadians, on board.  An extremist, a Sikh immigrant, was convicted in connection with the bombing, which came at a time of heightened tensions between the Sikh community and the Indian government.  As in the U.S., Canada will always condemn any extremist activity that results in violence in Canada or elsewhere.  However, freedom of expression and freedom of religion are deeply entrenched in the constitutions of both countries and are fiercely protected.

Hopefully, both Canada and India, with their many other mutual interests, can resolve their differences through the promotion of cooperation in investigating the above incident.

Canada Extremism Extremist Groups Foreign Policy Foreign Policy India India US

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Jun 5

Weapons Sales by Canada and the U.S. Complicit in Supporting War Crimes by Saudi Arabia

by bcurry

Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, mainly the United Arab Emirates, entered the Yemeni government’s war against the Houthi rebels in 2015, and began a wide-ranging aerial bombing campaign involving more than 150 airstrikes on civilian targets in Yemen.  The United Nations calls the situation in Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, as it is estimated that the war with Yemen has killed more than 230,000 people as a result of the fighting or its indirect consequences, such as hunger and outbreaks of disease.  The war has pushed the impoverished Yemen to the brink of famine.  During this nearly decade-long war, both the U.S. and Canada fournished weapons, including F-15S/SA planes and Canadian-made light armoured vehicles (LAVs), artillery systems, and heavy machine guns.

In 2021, the Biden administration in 2021 announced an end to U.S. military support for “offensive operations” carried out by the Saudi-led coalition and suspended some munition sales.  However, aircraft maintenance contracts fulfilled by both the U.S. military and U.S. companies to coalition squadrons carrying out offensive missions have continued.  Canada’s military exports to Saudi Arabia actually increased in 2021, making the Saudi kingdom Canada’s top export destination for such goods after the U.S. —  64 percent of the total value of non-US military exports that year.  In 2020, a review was undertaken by the Canadian government of weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, which concluded there was “no substantial risk” such transfers of military goods were “used to commit or facilitate violations of international human rights law, international humanitarian law, or gender-based violence”.  However, Amnesty International and Project Ploughshares have declared that the Canadian government’s review misinterpreted, or ignored, key pillars of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty, an international agreement signed by Canada regulating the international trade in conventional arms.  Contrary to what the federal government has said, they believe that Canada continues to ignore its international obligations to the Arms Trade Treaty.  On the other hand, the U.S., under Donald Trump, dropped out of the Arms Trade Treaty in 2019 for obvious misplaced domestic reasons.

Despite the fact that both countries have supported the kingdom, there have recently been signs of discontent with Saudi actions in Yemen and human rights violations by the Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  The murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey in 2018 by the Saudis did not help.  Nevertheless, we now have a planned trip by President Biden to Saudi Arabia to discuss increasing their production of oil, thereby helping his administration to lower gasoline prices in the U.S.  Although the U.S. helped diplomatically to arrange for a truce in the conflict between the Houthi in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, the horrendous damage was already done in both civilian casualties and infrastructure, including homes, hospitals and communication towers in Yemen.  Since 2015, human rights groups investigating the airstrikes on Yemen have identified more than 300 that violated or appeared to violate international law.  Even as early as March 2015, Internal State Department documents noted that U.S. officials worried that coalition airstrikes may have violated the rules of war.

While the world is paying close attention to possible war crimes by the Russians in Ukraine, countries such as the U.S. and Canada have been probably aided, through the provision of weapons to the Saudis and their allies, similar atrocities in Yemen.  In addition, within the kingdom of Saudi Arabia there are a number of alleged human rights issues, including the imprisonment of political activists.  However, these concerns have not been enough for the U.S. and Canada to cease their military support to the country.  One has to believe it’s more about the oil than it’s about the revenue from exports of military weapons and maintenance contracts.  Alas, there are no comparable bans on the export of oil from the region compared to existing European, U.S. and Canadian bans on the import of oil and gas from Russia.  Despite unresolved diplomatic disputes between the Saudis and both our countries, access to oil reserves unfortunately continues to drive our immediate foreign policies in the region.

Arms Trade Arms Trade Treaty Canada Foreign Policy Oil and Gas Oil and Gas The Middle East US

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Apr 4

Much Like Americans and Vietnam, There Is Dissent Among Russians Over The War In Ukraine

by bcurry

It’s interesting to compare the nature of dissent among Americans during the military action in Vietnam years ago, and Putin’s current so-called “special military action” in the Ukraine by Russian forces.  Having lived during the years of the America’s military action in Vietnam, I can recognize the growing dissent among Russians over the Ukrainian invasion.  One has to remember that the U.S. involvement in Vietnam was never officially declared a war by Congress, but was instead acted upon by presidential executive statements.  America paid a terrible price for its involvement in Vietnam — nearly 60,000 killed in action, over 150,000 wounded, and some 1,600 missing.  Then there was the draft, whereby a good number of young draft-aged Americans were forced into the military and ended up fighting in the jungles of Vietnam against determined and aggressive fighters.  The U.S. military bombed the hell out of North and South Vietnam, apparently with little impact.  The administration’s policy excuse was to prevent some form of domino effect in Southeast Asia should the Communists take over all of Vietnam.  Unfortunately for the much better equipped U.S. military, the national desire of the Vietnamese to unite their country and expel all foreign intruders proved to be too much.  After killing thousands of Vietnamese and destroying much of Vietnam’s infrastructure, the Americans were forced to leave the country with the fall of the South Vietnamese capital of Saigon in April 1975.  Estimates for the number of North Vietnamese civilian deaths resulting from U.S. bombing range from 30,000 to 65,000.

As the Vietnamese conflict lagged on, more and more Americans began to question the U.S. involvement and related human and financial costs.  Some dissent took the form of draft-aged Americans fleeing the country, many to Canada which had an open policy for draftees.  Within the U.S., dissent grew among college students and even among many Vietnam vets.  President Nixon took much of the brunt of such anti-Vietnam protests.  Sometimes, protests became violent resulting in hundreds of arrests by the authorities.  Increasingly, the American press began to question the optimistic briefings provided by the military brass, often highlighting the alleged effectiveness of strategic bombings and gains made by ground forces.  However for the first time in history, video of the conflict provided by front-line war correspondents was seen by American television viewers on a nightly basis.  The influence of the American media was especially important at the time and helped to sway opinion against the conflict.

The biggest difference in the case of dissent against Russia’s incursion into the Ukraine is the complete control by Putin’s regime over state media outlets.  In addition, the punishment against Russians openly protesting the war has resulted in immediate imprisonment and the potential for up to 15 years in prison.  However, dissent has been particularly strong among younger and better educated Russians, as demonstrated by the thousands who have already fled Russia to Eastern and Western European countries.  There has even been dissent expressed among some oligarchs who normally are strongly aligned with Putin’s interests.  The Russian military is even more dependent upon conscription to complement its professional army, to the point that Moscow has indicated that it will conscript around 130,000 more military-aged Russians this year.  However, there have been indications that dissent has emerged among those conscripts currently serving in the Ukraine, including the abandonment of positions and deliberate disabling of equipment.  Faced with a committed and fierce Ukrainian opposition and inept military command, the Russian assault on Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv has been stalled. 

As the Russian economy falters and the war goes on and Russian casualties mount, there is little doubt that ordinary Russians will begin to question what the Putin regime is claiming.  A major difference with Vietnam is the fact that today social media is readily available, no matter how much the government attempts to control it.  Scenes of Russian military actions upon civilians, including the elderly and children, are extremely disturbing.  Increasingly, such actions are being depicted as “war crimes” in the eyes of the world.  As was the case in Vietnam, it will be interesting to see if Russian dissent will grow with the increasing scenes of body bags being returned to the homeland?  Such scenes at U.S. military bases greatly influenced the growth of American dissent as time moved on, especially when there was little indication as to an end to the Vietnam conflict.

Foreign Policy Ukraine US

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Feb 27

Invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin Puts American Right-Wing Supporters in Tough Spot

by bcurry

The current military invasion by Russian troops has placed many of Vladimir Putin’s American admirers, including Donald Trump, in an awkward situation.  In the past, Trump and other Republicans praised Vladimir Putin as a strong and savvy leader.  This was in spite of the fact that Putin runs a Russian oligarchy made up of billionaires, with Putin’s personal fortune and that of his oligarch friends estimated to be in the billions.  Russia’s ultra-rich are among the biggest owners of private jets, fancy mansions and superyachts, some of which are found in the U.S.  Although the U.S. and other Western countries have imposed severe sanctions on Russia and members of Putin’s administration, the challenge is their fortunes and assets could be held through shell companies, complicating the ownership chain.  While imposing sanctions on Russian’s ultra-rich is important, getting at the money itself is complex.  So far, even as the U.S., the U.K. and other Western countries have ramped up sanctions on more than 100 Russian individuals and entities, these assets of the country’s elite — which can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars each — have avoided any direct hit.

As in Europe, many ultra-right American groups looked up to Putin as a some sort of model leader for the ‘populism’ movement.  Fox News host Tucker Carlson urged Americans to ask themselves what they had against Putin, echoing the Kremlin as he denigrated Ukraine as not a democracy but a puppet of the West and the United States.  Former President Donald Trump defended his praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin, causing a number of top Republicans to distance themselves from his position.  What makes matters worst is that Putin’s regime has already imprisoned thousands of Russian protesters against the invasion.  So much for populism!  If the Russian military aggression continues longer than expected, there will be even greater unrest back in Russia, particularly as Russian military and Ukrainian civilian casualties rise.  Most observers believe that an inability of the Russian military to overthrown the current Ukrainian government in under two weeks will cause further enormous stress on Putin’s rule.

The negative toll on Russia’s economy as a result of Western sanctions and other economic penalties has already resulted in a massive slump in Russian stocks, considered to be the third-worst in the history of stock markets.  The Russian ruble has taken a major hit which will increase the costs of imported goods in Russia and contribute to the already post-pandemic economic downturn.  Any resulting reduction in the export of Russian oil and gas will have an impact on American and European energy markets, again contributing to the current hyperinflation world-wide.  Moreover, the war in Ukraine threatens the world’s economic recovery.

For many of his long-time admirers — from those in the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and Brazil — it is something of an awkward spot.  The longer Putin’s aggression continues, the more populist movements around the world will be forced to be on the defensive over their past and present support for Vladimir Putin.  With every day, it is clearly becoming ever more uncomfortable to try to defend Putin’s actions, despite what Donald Trump might say.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Populism US

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Nov 29

Massive U.S. Foreign Military Aid to Israel Could Be Used To Improve Treatment of Palestinians

by bcurry

According to the Congressional Research Service, as of November 2020, Israel was the largest recipient of U.S. Foreign Military Financing.  For Fiscal Year 2021, President Trump’s request for Israel would encompass approximately 59 percent of America’s total requested Foreign Military Financing worldwide.  For decades now, the U.S. has had several Memoranda of Understanding consisting of tens of billions of dollars in its military aid package to Israel.  As a result of U.S. financial assistance, Israel also has been allowed to purchase 50 F-35s fighter jets in three separate contracts and missile defense systems.  In all, these annual military grants to Israel significantly represent approximately 20 percent of the overall Israeli defense budget.

Needless-to-day, the above appropriations suggest that the U.S. government should have some clout in terms of dealing with Israeli interactions with Palestinians.  Indeed, in May of this year, President Biden made an unusually blunt demand that Israel de-escalate its military attack on Gaza, creating a bit of a rare rift between the two countries.  Then there is the issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem where nearly three million Palestinians are living.  Nearly 140 unauthorized settler outposts were built there in recent decades in the West Bank, taking over lands lived on by Palestinians for centuries.  Much like former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the new right-wing Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, appears once again to support the settlers.

What is troubling over recent months, it has recently been disclosed by the Israeli military at the defense ministry that Israeli settlers have dramatically increased their attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.  They further note that violent incidents by settlers are up about 150 percent in the past two years.  Remember that the Israeli army is in charge of security in areas of the occupied West Bank where Israeli settlements are located.  However, observers, including Israeli human rights groups, have testified that soldiers frequently do little to intervene during the hate incidents against Palestinians.  Advocates also claim that crimes by Palestinians are aggressively prosecuted while settler violence typically goes unpunished.  By making life difficult for Palestinians who have lived in the these territories for generations, whether or not settler violence is part an overall strategy of expanding Israel’s presence is hopefully far from the truth.  Some suspect that it may not be.

Yes, anyone studying the history between Israelis and Palestinians recognizes that the issues are fairly complex.  However, with the evident clout that the U.S. has with respect to supporting Israel’s military, you would think that the Americans might do more to pressure the Israeli government to do more immediately to protect Palestinians in areas under their control.  Settlements that are illegal under Israeli law should be dismantled and greater protective measures should be implemented for the Palestinians.  Failure to do so could prove to be a blemish on human rights not only in Israel, but also for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.  When it comes to improving relations between Israelis and Palestinians, the Biden administration should attempt to revive America’s former role as a more neutral mediator in the Middle East’s most protracted conflict. 

Foreign Policy Israel US US Politics

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May 3

There is a Catch-22 in Pipeline Issues Between Canada and the U.S.

by bcurry

Following Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president, he took the widely expected step through an executive order of cancelling the cross-border permit for the US$14.4-billion Alberta-to-Texas heavy oil pipeline, the Keystone XL pipeline. The decision marks the third time a U.S. president has blocked the construction of this pipeline.  Next occurred the decision by Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer last November which ordered Calgary-based Enbridge to shut down its nearly 70-year-old Line 5 pipeline by May 12, 2021.  Line 5 carries each day up to 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids across Michigan and under the Great Lakes.  Line 5 is part of Enbridge’s mainland system carrying fuel from Alberta’s oil sands to the Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Canada, especially to refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.  Not surprisingly, President Biden’s and Governor Whitmer’s decisions were applauded by environmentalists and Indigenous groups on both sides of the border.

The difficulty is that Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, and the U.S. is its top customer.  While past incidents have occurred where crude oil leakages in pipelines, including those which are part of Enbridge’s mainland system, the alternative means of transportation via rail and trucking also represents serious safety issues.  This potential danger was clearly demonstrated in the fiery derailment in July 2013 in Lac-Megantic, Quebec, which killed 47 people and wiped out part of the town.  From an economic point of view, the transport of crude oil and natural gas liquids by pipeline is the most efficient and least costly option.  Realistically, any transition within the U.S. or Canada away from fossil fuels will take time.  While the elimination of fossil fuels makes good environmental sense in light of climate change, there continues to be a dependence on fossil fuels for servicing our industries, running our transportation hubs, producing electricity and heating our homes.  Both countries have to cooperatively work together towards achieving environmental goals without creating bad relations between our governments and citizens.

Back in January, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney asked the Canadian government to push the U.S. government to reimburse the $1.5 billion it stands to lose from the cancellation of Keystone XL and to reimburse TC Energy, the project proponent, for the money it has sunk into the project.  Alberta took an ownership stake in 2020, representing more than $1 billion in taxpayer money to fund the construction of the pipeline.  The Biden administration’s decision to block the Keystone XL pipeline has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a very difficult situation, one which he has raised with the President.  On the one hand he has to support Alberta’s oil and gas industry.  On the other hand the Prime Minister has agreed reduce in Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent within the next decade.  This brings Canada in line with the Biden administration recent pledge to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

Critics of the decision to shut down the Line 5 pipeline note that 6,500 good-paying jobs in Sarnia, Ontario, are on the line.  A further 23,500 indirect jobs in that same region could also be impacted, and thousands more across Ontario and Quebec.  Line 5 also feeds into Line 9, which carries oil to refineries in Montreal and Lévis for Quebec’s supply needs.  According to Minister of Natural Resources Seamus O’Regan, Line 5 delivers 66 percent of the crude oil consumed in Quebec.  This means that besides Alberta, the Premiers of Ontario and Quebec are extremely unhappy with the Michigan Governor’s position.  Any decision to move crude oil and natural gas liquids by alternate means is considered less safe, more costly and realistically not viable given the vast quantities that have to be transported.  This is your Catch-22.  For this reason, both Canada and the U.S. need to work much more closely to resolve all relevant issues pertinent to their respective constituents.  Our continuing good trade and political relationships are in the balance.

Canada Cimate Change Climate Change Economy Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Keystone XL Oil and Gas Transport of Oil US

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Apr 15

U.S. Should Take Lead In Global COVID Vaccination For Vulnerable Countries

by bcurry

Having just read a recent report by the American Centre for Strategic and International Affairs, it became clearly evident that the U.S. helping to secure the future of lower- and middle-income countries is simply the right thing to do, on humanitarian, economic, and security grounds.  This means taking a clear lead on helping to provide supplies of COVID vaccines to vulnerable poorer countries in Africa and the Americas.  The facts are that the U.S. has already purchased 1.3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines from six companies, enough to vaccinate 650 million people — nearly twice the U.S. population.  Meanwhile, recent reports say 300 million vaccine doses could be in the U.S. by July of this year, sparking hoarding worries.

The Biden administration is apparently leaning toward keeping the doses it has ordered, and then at some point directing the excess to other nations in either bilateral deals or giving it to Covax.  Covax is an international nonprofit organization backed by the World Health Organization (WHO) that is trying to coordinate equitable distribution of vaccine among vulnerable countries.  The Biden administration has already donated $3.5 billion for the Global Fund in support of the international effort.  The recent passed American Rescue Plan also included a further $11 billion to support the global Covid-19 response, $3 billion for U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), $650 million for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) global Covid-19 response, and $300 million for the Center for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovation (CEPI).  An excellent start to help combat the global pandemic.

However, the Centre for Strategic and International Affairs strongly suggests that the U.S. bring considerable leverage to any global strategy on vaccines.  It is after all the biggest vaccine market and the largest investor in vaccines, with the deepest impact on research and development of new products.  In addition, the Centre’s report suggests that the U.S. should work with multilateral efforts to create fiscal space in lower- and middle-income countries to invest in their health infrastructure, which will be essential for responding to the current crisis as well as making investments in future pandemic preparedness.  It’s one thing to supply vaccines, it’s another to actually deliver and immunize a population affected by difficult regional transportation and few local health care capacities.  These multilateral investments must continue into the future if vulnerable countries are to control future outbreaks and protect the health of their citizens.

We have already seen the foreign policy moves by China and Russia to supply vaccines strategically to vulnerable countries as an additional means of exerting their political and economic influence in the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa.  Western countries, led by the U.S., cannot afford to ignore such vaccine supply initiatives underway in these strategic regions.  Furthermore, millions of lives are at stake given the current increasing spread of COVID variants in these regions.  The global response to this pandemic must be met through an international approach to be successful.  Who else is in a better position to lead this response than the United States?

Coronavirus Foreign Policy Joe Biden US

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Feb 28

Once Again, We Have Forgotten About Afghanistan

by bcurry

Yes, the primary news today and during the past year in North America is all about the pandemic and how governments are attempting to cope.  However, loss in all of this is the deteriorating state within Afghanistan.  I have previously blogged on issues surrounding the survival of the current American-backed government in Kabul and the past tremendous investments that Western countries, most notably the U.S., made in that country as noted in: Afghanistan-good-investment-or-sink-hole-and-lost-cause/.  In the meantime, the Taliban have been encroaching on key cities around Afghanistan for months, threatening to drive the country to its breaking point and push the Biden administration into a no-win situation just as the United States’ longest war is supposed to be coming to an end.

Under the deal struck by President Trump with the Taliban last year, all foreign troops — including the remaining 2,500 U.S. service members who support Afghanistan’s army and security forces — were scheduled to have withdrawn by May 1, 2021, leaving the country in an especially precarious state.  As talks between the Afghan government and Taliban continue, the reality is that insurgents already hold much of the country.  The Taliban is back to using terror and fear tactics to control the population in those parts of the country occupied by its forces.  They have a loose network of prisons wherein many people are being tortured.  They also operate a parallel network of civilian courts in which religious scholars adjudicate land disputes and family disputes, much like they did when they ran Afghanistan’s government two decades ago.  Supported by the local tribal officials, Taliban courts also try murders and suspected moral and religious offences. 

It has been argued that if the U.S. delays its withdrawal deadline, the Taliban would likely consider the 2020 deal with the U.S. void, likely leading to renewed attacks on American and NATO troops.  The result potentially could draw the U.S. deeper into the war to defend Afghanistan’s beleaguered army and security forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.  Unfortunately, many Afghans see the current government as corrupt and its justice system as crooked. 

Then, there’s the ongoing cost of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.  According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the total military expenditure in Afghanistan from October 2001 until September 2019 was $778 billion.  In addition, the U.S. State Department – along with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and other government agencies – spent $44 billion on reconstruction projects.  Then there were the American lives lost.  As of July 2018, there were over 2,300 U.S. military and over 16,000 civilian deaths in the Afghan war.  In addition, over 20,000 American service members had been wounded in action up until then.  There were also over 1,700 U.S. civilian contractor fatalities.

All of this leads one to understand the American hesitancy to simply pack up and leave Afghanistan as it did during the Vietnam war.  Much has been sacrificed in a cause that was a no-win from the outset, demonstrating the dangers associated with trying to impose democratic ways in a poor country which has only known authoritarianism.  Unfortunately, without U.S. support, the current Afghan regime obviously cannot stand on its own.  It’s a difficult decision for President Biden to make, but it’s one that has to be made sooner than later given the daily costs, human and financial, associated with sustaining the current regime in Kabul.  Afghanistan is certain to be back in our headlines once again.

Afghanistan Foreign Policy US

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Dec 26

Will Vulnerable Countries Have Adequate Access to COVID Vaccines?

by bcurry

Many are celebrating the fact that the end of 2020 has seen the arrival of COVID vaccines from pharmaceutical manufacturers, and rightly so.  Indeed, the U.S. has already secured claims on as many as 1.5 billion doses of approved and potential vaccines, while the European Union has locked up nearly two billion doses — enough to vaccinate all of their citizens and then some. Canada is in line to receive millions of vaccine doses early in the new year.  However, reports indicate that many poor countries could be left waiting until 2024 to fully vaccinate their populations, if they’re lucky.  In addition, access to vaccines is not based on need.  It’s based on the ability to pay and the need for pharmaceutical companies (primarily located in the advanced economies) to waive traditional protections on intellectual property, thereby allowing poor countries to make affordable versions of the vaccines.  Unfortunately, the work of the World Trade Organization (W.T.O.) and the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) to provide needed aid to poor countries has been blocked by the Trump administration.  On top of which, the Trump administration has also withdrawn financial and moral support for the vital work of the World Health Organization (W.H.O.).

This has left the masses of people in poor countries with no short-term access to vaccines, in economic chaos and with rising public debt.  This global pandemic will result in existing economic inequalities between the have and have-not countries becoming even greater.  Some will even argue that the ravages of the pandemic in poor countries, largely unchecked by vaccines, could limit economic fortunes globally.  Governments in the wealthy countries must at some point shore up the assistance necessary to support health care systems and vulnerable populations in poor countries.  The Canadian government recently announced that it is part of a global movement to ensure that available surplus COVID vaccines will be offered to vulnerable countries as soon as possible.  When and by how much are two questions that immediately come to mind!

One can only hope that the incoming Biden administration will quickly proceed to address this important issue and lend the full support of the American nation to such organizations as the W.T.O., I.M.F. and W.H.O. in combating this global pandemic.  Without the full American participation, the ability to ensure that sufficient COVID vaccines are available to vulnerable countries becomes a mute issue.  Just as the pandemic created a health crisis in wealthy countries, it has created an even bigger one in the poorer countries.  Unless the current situation changes, it is predicted that many poor countries will no doubt be left waiting until 2024 to fully vaccinate their populations.  If true, this could become the worst international tragedy of this century.

Canada Coronavirus COVID-19 Foreign Policy Joe Biden US

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Jun 11

Trump’s Strange Saga of U.S. and Denmark Over the Purchase of Greenland

by bcurry

With everything going on in the world today, maybe one needs a minor distraction like the battle of Donald Trump over the purchase of Greenland by the U.S.  About a year ago, Trump approached the Danish P.M., Mette Frederiksen, with an offer to buy Greenland which is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of Denmark. Thinking it was some kind of April Fool’s Day joke, the Danes refused. Unfortunately, like so many times before Trump took the refusal to even consider the idea a sign of disrespect and immediately cancelled his planned September 2019 trip to Denmark — one which had been at the formal invitation of Queen Margrethe, Denmark’s head of state. Needless-to-say, this did not go over well with the Danes who after all are an important NATO ally.

Greenland is the world’s largest island and has a population of less than 60,000 inhabitants. Denmark contributes two thirds of Greenland’s budget revenue, the rest coming mainly from fishing. Greenland is noted for its vast tundra and immense glaciers. While the country has a vast array of minerals, including rare-earth elements used for electronic, military and new energy technologies like wind turbines, these are very difficult to mine in its harsh environment.

As a strategic location, Greenland was important to the U.S. during the Cold War as evidenced by American military presence at the Thule Air Base under a U.S.-Danish treaty dating to 1951. However, in this day and age of new military capabilities, including those in space, Greenland would not be considered anymore as a strategic importance. Then there’s those rare earths, most of which currently come from China. Experts believe that the environmental impact of mining for rare earths is profound and extremely costly.  Even if it was to happen, the process to get new mining operations off the ground takes decades.

However, despite the Danish rejection to what Trump referred to as one “big real-estate” deal,   the Trump administration has opened a consulate in Greenland for the first time in nearly 70 years. In a further extension of U.S. influence, Greenland announced at the end of April that it had accepted an offer of US$12.1 million for mining, tourism and education. There is little doubt that Trump is keen to expand the U.S. presence in the entire Arctic region amid fears of growing Russian and Chinese militarization. The U.S. recently announced its intention to create a new fleet of ice-breaking ships for use in the Arctic.

As for Canada, Canadian Forces Station (CFS) Alert located on Ellesmere Island is the northernmost settlement in the world. With the end of the Cold War and the advent of new technologies allowing for remote interpretation of data, the over-wintering population has been reduced to 62 civilians and military personnel as of 2016. I guess that the location for an American base on Ellesmere Island is not as popular as one in Greenland, although the two islands are geographically at an identical latitude. The new consulate in Greenland has once again made for strange bedfellows.

Canada, as a near-Artic country and member of The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), conducts aerospace warning, aerospace control and maritime warning in the defense of North America.  For this reason, Canada has been wary of Chinese and Russian threats to expand in the region, and like the U.S. is also building a new fleet of ice-breaking ships for use in the Arctic.  Rather than worry about relations with Greenland, maybe Trump should be working more closely with Canada to safeguard our Artic waters.

 

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Foreign Policy NATO US

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