FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Jan 7

Trump Is Completely Out To Lunch When It Comes To Iran

by bcurry

Here we go again! Hasn’t the American administration learned from past mistakes in the Middle East?  Remember supporting the former dictator, the Shah of Iran, against the Iranian people who suffered terribly under his regime.  Remember the flimsy excuses given by Bush Jr. to invade Iraq based on false intelligence about  Saddam Hussein’s supposed “weapons of mass destruction”.  Remember how the American occupation of Iraq and failure of subsequent Iraqi governments led to the emergence of the Islamic State (ISIL) and subsequent years of terror in the region.

Now, we have an American President ordering the assassination of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who the Trump administration claimed to pose a “clear and present danger.”  One can always ask “why now”?  Seems all too convenient as a distraction for a President who is smack in the middle of the impeachment process.  Now, U.S. and NATO forces and Westerners in the region are at real risk from Iranian reprisals.  The Iraqi parliament has voted to kick American and foreign forces out of the country, despite Trump’s threats of placing stiff sanctions on Iraq and making the Iraqis pay for the al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.  This important base hosts many U.S. troops and was a strategic key in the war against ISIL.  Indeed, the U.S.-Iranian conflict may have just opened the door for the reemergence of ISIL in the region which is a much greater threat to everyone.  Remember that Iranian-backed forces fought against ISIL in Syria.

The actions by Trump carried out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo  and Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper may have just complicated what is already a dangerous situation in the region.  As was the past case in Iraq and Afghanistan, the current administration appears to have no strategy to deal with the likely escalation of U.S.-Iranian conflict that will most definitely follow.  Iran on the other hand has been given an opportunity by the American actions to distract the Iranian people from recent protests and uprisings within Iran against the regime driven by the country’s poor economic conditions.  In addition, the Iranian regime now has an excuse to recommense its nuclear arms program by withdrawing from the current accord which, under Trump, is no longer recognized by the U.S.

Canada, which has hundreds of military and other personnel in the region, has helped in the training of Iraqi security forces. With the recent events, they have been told to stand down.  The Americans have unfortunately paused their counterterrorism operations and are now focused on ensuring their security on bases throughout the region.  Some retaliatory moves by Iran are bound to happen, leaving Westerners throughout the region in a very dangerous position.  Trump’s further threats of potential reprisals, military or economic, may only add to what is already a very volatile situation.  Indeed, I would advocate that all Canadian personnel be withdrawn immediately and entirely from the region, in particular from Iraq.  Once again, why should Canadians pay with their lives for U.S. mistakes in the region?

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Dec 15

Canada and the U.S. Trade Fall-Out From U.K.’s Brexit

by bcurry

Both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Donald Trump issued statements congratulating Boris Johnson on his recent overwhelming electoral victory, pledging to co-operate on “issues that matter to both of our countries”.  One of these issues will be that of trade between our countries and the U.K. when it leaves the European Union (EU) with the implementation of Brexit. Although the U.K. now looks set to leave the EU on Jan.31, 2020, an “implementation period” will maintain its existing trade agreements through to Dec. 31, 2020. Currently, Canada’s trade with the U.K. is covered under the terms of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) negotiated by Canada with the E.U. Donald Trump’s United States doesn’t currently have a trade agreement with Europe. Of course, Boris Johnson would love to enter into a free trade agreement with the U.S.  Good luck on that one.

The UK is by far Canada’s most important commercial partner in Europe and our fifth largest trading partner globally. According to Global Affairs Canada, two way merchandise trade in 2018, reached over $25 billion. However, Canada is not expected to make any moves on trade with the U.K. until it sees what happens with the outcome of U.K. trade negotiations with the EU. As it now stands, British trade policy is perceived as being in a mess, especially in the financial services and agricultural sectors. Depending on how things go with Brussels, the powerful U.K. banking industry may want more access to Canada’s market.  It’s very unlikely that Canada is going to be willing to give them something in that area. The Canadian banking and financial services sector is quite highly regulated and restrictive.

As for the U.S., next to the EU, the U.S is the top trading partner with 13.3% of total UK exports going to the U.S. in 2019, totalling about $64 billion (U.S.). It’s much more important for the UK to have access to American markets than it is for the U.S. to have increased access to UK markets. Trump has already made it clear that Boris Johnson wants to do business with the U.S. “so badly” — but at what costs? For example, concerns have been raised that parts of the Britain’s publicly-funded National Health Service (NHS) could be made available to U.S. markets by a Conservative government.

Whatever the case, as a result of the new Conservative government’s desire to move quickly on Brexit, 2020 will bring about some interesting and often troubling trade and domestic issues for the U.K. It is certain that Britain’s leaving the EU will lead to renewed independence initiatives in Scotland and the question of the potential union of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, both regions which strongly preferred to remain as part of the EU. Whether Brexit will lead to better economic conditions in the U.K. will be a determining political factor for the new government. Meanwhile, Canada and the U.S. can only sit back and observe the outcome before making any further trade-related moves. Many North American businesses which have U.K. subsidiaries are sitting on their hands and postponing any planned investments. Unfortunately, the British people are the ones who have to deal with the economic vulnerabilities and political uncertainties resulting from Brexit.

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Dec 9

Accusing Canada of Not Living Up to Its NATO Commitments is Overkill

by bcurry

Canada has roughly the same population (approx. 36 million people) as the state of California. Despite this, Canada has a long and proud military history — having significantly contributed citizens and materials to two World Wars and more recently to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) involvement in Afghanistan and Latvia. With a relatively small number of regular military personnel who are well armed and trained, Canada has contributed to numerous peace time operations of both NATO and the United Nations.

At a NATO summit in Wales in 2014, NATO nations for some arbitrary reason agreed to the target measurement of 2 per cent of a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for its total defence spending. Canada currently spends about 1.31 per cent of GDP on defence. However, tabulate the defence dollars actually being spent on the military and Canada ranks an impressive sixth among the 29 NATO nations. A number of expert observers have agreed that NATO’s defence budget formula is very flawed, and allows small obscure countries like Bulgaria and Estonia to declare that they are more than meeting the 2 per cent target. In such cases, the purchase of a new ship or aircraft and one can easily surpass this GDP target. However, these and other similar countries contribute little in actual on-the-ground NATO support or suffer casualties as Canada did in Afghanistan.

So along comes Donald Trump who threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO if all its members didn’t meet the 2 per cent of GDP target. The U.S., as a so-called super power and having its own foreign policy objectives backed up by an immense military-industrial establishment, now spends 3.42 per cent of its GDP on defence. Little surprise there, especially given vast American operations in the Middle East, South-East Asian seas and Afghanistan. For Trump to say that NATO is “obsolete” and frequently compliment Russian President Vladimir Putin are both absurd and even dangerous. After Russia’s “illegal annexation” of Crimea, NATO spoke of its solidarity with the Ukraine. Someone has to stand up to Russian aggression — if not NATO then who?

As part of its commitment to national security and to NATO, Canada is due to embark on major expenditures on fighter jets and the navy. Whether or not Canada meets some arbitrary target in defence spending is not all that critical. What is, is the country’s need to maintain a professional, prepared and well trained military.  I fully believe that the brave and competent men and women of Canada’s armed forces will continue to uphold the country’s proud military heritage. Something that the likes of Donald Trump cannot and will not fully appreciate.

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Oct 8

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is A Complete And Utter Flop

by bcurry

Just hours after President Trump declared that American troops were being withdrawn from the Syrian border, he warned Turkey that he would “totally destroy and obliterate” the economy of Turkey if he’s unhappy with how the country carries out its planned assault on Kurdish fighters. Indeed, what Trump has done is a betrayal and abandonment of the Kurds who, with U.S. backing, have been fearlessly fighting the Islamist radicals of ISIS in northern Syria. Both Democrats and Republicans have condemned the move as irresponsible and dangerous, leaving the Kurds to worry about a war with the more powerful Turkey and an inability to deal with the thousands of ISIS members interned in Syria. Some have even suggested that ISIS may re-emerge under the circumstances.

This is just another example of Trump’s lack of good judgement and his inability to appreciate the consequences of his foreign policies to date. Take North Korea for example, we now have a situation where nothing has happened since the talks between President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un broke down. Indeed, the meetings only helped to legitimatize Kim’s regime on the world stage, while allowing him to continue testing missiles capable of reaching most Asian countries.  There are also suspected hidden nuclear fuel production sites around the country.

With respect to the European Union (EU), Brexit and the Ukraine, Trump has interfered on a number of occasions, upsetting his NATO and European allies. He has instead aligned himself with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and dropped out of nuclear missile treaty with Russia, which is what Russia wanted all along. Trump is far too close to Putin, particularly in light of the Russian invasion of Crimea and confirmed Russian hacking in the 2016 election.

In terms of the current disastrous Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU, Trump is much too close to Prime Minister Boris Johnson who in an undemocratic manner tried to circumvent the British Parliament to get his way. Then there are the recent revelations about Trump’s unprecedented dealings with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which have led to the launch of an impeachment enquiry in the House of Representatives.  Here we have the President trying to persuade the Ukrainian President to get involved in a political-inspired investigation of an American presidential candidate.  Trump’s request has been tied to the withholding of military aid to Ukraine, something everyone agrees is not normal and most likely illegal. He has even suggested that China should undertake a similar investigation. Go figure!

On top of all this, one has the U.S. State Department in total turmoil. Its officials have little input into the Trump Administration’s foreign policy decisions and are daily loosing credibility abroad and in the U.S.  Once a highly respected and influential arm of government, one now has a Secretary of State who has become nothing more than a puppet for the President.  Mike Pompeo simply defends his boss’s mistakes, regardless of the international consequences.  One can only imagine what goes on in the National Security Council on a daily basis?

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Sep 13

Why Is The Trump Administration Attacking Environmental Protection?

by bcurry

A recent article in the New York Times (September 12, 2019) noted that up until June of the year, 85 environmental rules had been rolled back under the Trump administration. Several rules, a number of which had been implemented under the Obama administration, were aimed at preventing pollution in air and water.  In addition, some were aimed at protecting endangered species and ensuring safer drilling and extraction related to the oil and gas industry.  A simple answer is that the rollbacks are aimed to please farmers, rural landowners, developers and the coal, oil and gas industry which make up a good portion of Trump’s support.

The most recent rollback by the Trump administration is the repeal of a major Obama-era clean water regulation, known as the Waters of the United States rule, that had placed limits on polluting chemicals that could be used near streams, wetlands and other bodies of water.  This rule was designed to limit pollution in about 60 percent of the nation’s bodies of water, protecting sources of drinking water for about one-third of the United States.  We all know about the repercussions from unsafe drinking water — just think of Flint, Michigan.

For years, one admired the work of the once highly-respected U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which often led the way in environmental protection measures that Canadian environmental agencies similarly adopted. Think of the bilateral work between Canada and the U.S. in areas such as dealing with “acid rain” and the clean up of the Great Lakes.  It’s a shame that under Trump the EPA is moving backwards in terms of protecting the environment and endangered species and away from its original mandate.  To reverse these measures may take years to accomplish and the country will see serious environmental repercussions.

In terms of dealing with carbon emission reductions — think climate change — the Trump administration has taken a “laissez fare” approach, and even aggressively attacks states such as California who are trying to do something about their carbon emissions. This includes Trump’s warning to the state that a recent emissions deal with several automakers may be illegal.  A letter from the EPA and the Department of Transportation is the latest sign of President Trump’s anger at California and car manufacturers that have bucked his plans to roll back regulations put in place to combat climate change. Inevitably, the matter may end up being decided by the courts — again prompting more delays and serious drawbacks in tackling air pollution and climate change issues.

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Aug 14

Trump Greatly Underestimated China’s Resolve on Trade

by bcurry

The great negotiator, Donald Trump, has once again underestimated his opponents on the international stage. Recently, he threatened the Chinese with more tariffs on additional imports from China if they didn’t give in to U.S. demands. Now, the next worst thing to encountering a skunk is to back the Chinese regime against their proverbial wall.  That’s exactly what Trump’s administration has done.  In addition, he has often said that the tariffs would be paid for by the Chinese, not by the American consumer.  Alas, once again, Trump has reversed his latest tariff threats by claiming that he did not want to punish American consumers prior to Christmas with higher prices on imported Chinese products.  Americans apparently still want to purchase such goods as cellphones, clothing, TVs, video games, toys, etc., etc. at affordable prices.

Besides devaluing its currency, the Chinese administration has numerous other weapons in its economic arsenal. The last thing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to do is loose face in China. The CCP is having to deal with threatening situations in Hong Kong and Tibet, and is not reluctant to use force to quell such threats, despite the potential for international condemnation. Defending human rights is not the CCP’s forte.  The CCP is prepared to do whatever it takes to maintain its control and power.  This will not change anytime soon.

In recent years, China has expanded its economic and political influence in serious geopolitical moves. It is not only a formidable force in Southeast Asia, but has moved to directly influence events in Africa, the Middle East and South America. Its foreign policies include providing financial and technical aid for infrastructure and resource development in several countries.  It is always looking for new markets and resources. China wants to establish itself as a leading superpower on the world stage, and it will not be bullied by anyone, including the American President.

It’s time that the West stops underestimating the strengths of China.Inc.  China is a superpower and wants to be treated as an equal by the U.S.  Time is not on the side of Trump.  All that China needs to do is wait and watch for the coming global recession eventually and inevitably brought on by this trade war.

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Aug 6

White Extremism in North America is Very Worrisome and Dangerous

by bcurry

Back in March of this year, I published a blog entitled Extremist White Nationalist Movements Worldwide and the Attack on Mosques in New Zealand following the tragic massacre of Muslims at a mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand by a self-proclaimed white extremist. On August 3rd, the 22 people killed in El Paso, Texas, extended a series of at least five fatal attacks over the past year directed at targets selected for racial or religious reasons, including shootings at synagogues in San Diego and Pittsburgh. Authorities allege the El Paso shooter posted a racist manifesto online on 8chan, an anonymous message board, prior to the shooting.

The numbers of people killed in terrorist attacks linked to Islamist radicals or the far right in the United States since 2002 are now virtually equivalent. The most recent attacks have involved domestic terrorism committed by individuals influenced by or belonging to groups associated with white extremism.  As a result of the El Paso killings, President Trump denounced the alleged white nationalist sentiments of the suspected killer. But his presidency has come to be defined by policies that are aligned with aspects of the white nationalist agenda and his penchant for fanning racial prejudices and anti-immigrant sentiments. His very racist and long-standing xenophobic phrase “go back to where you came from” was a big hit among supporters at Trump’s rallies.

I became particularly concerned after white nationalists held a violent rally in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017, when the President appeared not to immediately denounce the neo-Nazi marchers. It’s as if the President and the Republicans are avoiding the obvious emergence of groups representing white extremists who select targets based on race and religion.  As in the case of the post-9/11 combined efforts by U.S. national security agencies to defend against Islamist radicals, these same agencies must now work closely together to prevent further attacks by followers of white extremism. It’s time for the administration to recognize this fact and act!

Canada is also not immune to white extremism. On January 29, 2017, a young Canadian white male fatally shot six people at a mosque in Quebec City’s Sainte-Foy neighbourhood.  This was seen by authorities as a hate crime against Muslims. The shooter was influenced one way or another by right-wing extremism portrayed in social media and on the Dark Web.  More frequent attacks involving vandalism of mosques and synagogues have taken place in the recent years.  However, the trend is much older.  Indeed, Statistics Canada reported that the number of hate crimes committed in Canada jumped 35 percent between 2007 and 2008, and black and Jewish people were the most targeted groups for the attacks. Again, I refer you to an earlier blog entitled Right Wing Extremism is a Growing Concern in North American Communities published in November 2018 for more background on Canadian and American white extremist groups.

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Jul 15

Is Donald Trump “Xenophobic”?

by bcurry

The Oxford English Dictionary defines xenophobia as “intense or irrational dislike or fear of people from other countries.” For some time now, President Trump has been accused of being a “racist” and more recently as showing signs of xenophobia.  These allegations arose once again because of his tweets on July 13-14 in which he asserted that certain Democratic congresswomen should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came.”  Without naming the congresswomen, there is little doubt that he is referring to Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan. All four are women of colour and American citizens, while only one was not born in the U.S.

One must remember that the phrase “go back to where you came from” has been a standard refrain mostly used by disgruntled white men or women, and certainly by white supremacists. It would appear that Trump’s statements are aimed at a particular element of his base support.  Indeed, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said that Trump was trying to “gin up his base” by “keeping Americans divided”.  Trump appears to have forgotten that the above-mentioned Representatives were legally elected by a majority of their constituents.  In addition, in a democracy, people have the right to express their views.  Once expressed, people then have the right to openly agree or disagree with them.

I defend the right of the President or anyone else to express their views. Indeed, knowing one’s views is a good way of determining what are their core values and beliefs.  This is a good thing.  How else would one know that Trump is obviously xenophobic!  What is sad that America was built on the blood, sweat and tears of immigrants. Remember as well, the only peoples who can rightly say that this was originally their land are the indigenous peoples of North America. Today, America is a country based on diversity and inclusion. It welcomed people of different races, religions and ethnic backgrounds from many places to participate in the so-called American dream.  This represents the real “greatness” of America.

What Donald Trump is doing is political manoeuvring by a desperate man focused on one thing alone — getting re-elected. He is even willing to undertake this shameful campaign at the expense of some admirable and fundamental American values.  Let’s hope and pray that he is unsuccessful!

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Jun 30

Senator Kamala Harris Would Make a Good President

by bcurry

Well, a presidential election is scheduled to be held in the fall of 2020. Already, the debates have started among a boatload of Democratic hopefuls in preparation for the upcoming primaries.  Who is going to run against Donald Trump?  Hopefully not the likes of Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders!  It would be nice to see a President who isn’t over the age of 75 and who didn’t carry a lot of baggage.

Right now, I believe that Senator Kamala Devi Harris would be an excellent candidate for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, at 54, she is part of Generation X (those born between 1965 and 1980) which helped to bring in the twenty-first century.  Secondly, she is a woman of  Jamaican or Indian ancestry, reflecting the new diversity with the U.S. population. Although she has no children, she has two adult stepchildren through her marriage making her aware of parental issues affecting today’s youth.

Her professional qualifications provide her with a good foundation for dealing with today’s issues. Since 2017, she has been California’s third female U.S. Senator. Prior to that, Senator Harris served as the San Francisco District Attorney for seven years and as the Attorney General of California for six years.  As a prosecutor, she dealt with numerous high-level cases.

With respect to her progressive policies, she has supported single-payer healthcare, actions on climate change, education reform, federal descheduling of cannabis, municipal protection for undocumented immigrants, the DREAM Act, and lowering the tax burden for the working and middle classes while raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest one percent of Americans. She is someone who would not rely solely on the military to formulate foreign policy, as is the case now.  Her positions are in sharp contrast to those of President Trump and the Republicans.  Americans need to have a clear choice between two platforms and two visions of what kind of country they want, with no mudding of the waters by the centrists.  Such a contrast was not evident during Hilliary Clinton’s campaign.

If I were Donald Trump’s campaign team, I’d be a lot more concerned about Senator Harris as an opponent than either Sanders or Biden. While he represents the past and the status quo, she represents the potential for a dynamic and new prosperous future for America.

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May 16

With Friends Like the U.S., Who Needs Enemies!

by bcurry

Well, President Trump is at it again. This time he has launched an all out trade war with the second largest economy in the world — China. As of next week, virtually all of the imports from China to the States will be under increased or new tariffs. In turn, the Chinese will retaliate by placing new tariffs on American imports to that country worth billions of dollars.

What does this mean for Canada? The Bank of Canada predicts that the U.S.-China trade war will shave 0.8 percentage points off the Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Already, various Canadian agricultural exports to China, such as granola and soy beans, are down or non-existent because of an extradition request by the Americans and subsequent arrest in Vancouver last December of the Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou of Huawei Technologies Co. The decision to proceed with the extradition process sets in motion proceedings that could drag on for months and possibly years, inviting further retaliation measures by the Chinese government and costing Canadian suppliers billions of dollars. The American request has also resulted in the questionable arrest of Canadian citizens in China by its government.

As a result of the trade war, it is estimated that the U.S. itself could lose a full percentage point off its GDP, possibly costing some 1.5 million jobs. In turn, due to Canada’s close reliance on trade with its partner to the south, the Bank of Montreal predicts that some 150,000 Canadian jobs could be affected down the road by the resulting decline in economic activity between the two countries. In addition, the U.S. continues to refuse to eliminate the existing tariffs on steel and aluminum coming from Canada and Mexico. To date, U.S. refusal to do so has prevented both countries from ratifying the proposed new North American free-trade deal which would benefit all three countries.

Good political, defence, cultural and economic relationships between Canada and the U.S. are longstanding. Hundreds of thousands of Americans and Canadians work and live on both sides of the longest border in the world.  Together, we have made a robust and viable North American economy, with 70 percent of Canada’s trade being with the U.S.  However, this relationship has been damaged by the recent actions of Trump administration, although hopefully not beyond repair.  Under the current circumstances, all one can do is reiterate that with friends like this, who needs enemies!

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