FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

If Nothing Else, Enjoy the View at G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec

Just up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec, Canada, there is the lovely region of Charlevoix. Amid hills, lakes and rivers there exists parks and hiking trails, picturesque little villages and tons of nature.  From the shores, you can often see whales playing in the St. Lawrence River. This June 8th and 9th, the region will host the next G7 summit.  If you’re not already aware, the G7 consists of the U.S., Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. What’s particularly interesting this time, President Donald Trump, the so-called master negotiator, will be there after having just placed tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada, Mexico and Europe. Oh to be a fly on the wall at that meeting!

One has to remember that one of the goals of the G7 over the last four decades was to help coordinate trade and economic policies among these and other industrialized countries. The G7 has always been seen as a close-knit group having common interests.  This may all change at this summit.  None of the participants is happy with President Trump’s protectionist policies.  Indeed, some observers have described the new grouping as the “G6 plus one”, the U.S. being the one. The past goals of enhancing cooperation may be in real jeopardy, particularly when you have the American President publishing rambling tweets about the U.S. getting screwed by “stupid trade.” It’s obvious that Trump’s playing to his political core base back home, much to the chagrin of other Republicans and State governors who support “free trade” and have economically benefited from such support.

Moreover, the G7 has been somewhat effective because it had established a level of trust among its members. Now, Trump is straining those very bonds.  In addition, the President’s administration has not really gone after the real culprit in this story, China.  Instead, the President appears to be more concerned about his family’s financial interests in China and China’s role in the upcoming talks with North Korea. Although some will argue that the G7 as a body has done little to tackle certain economic and international trade issues, the fact is that at least it was there, along with the group of 20, to discuss emerging issues and perhaps avert damaging protectionist policies.

Let’s face it, I support free trade as benefiting all of us in one way or another. Indeed, I highlighted my views back in March in my blog entitled Does Trump Not Understand Fundamental Principles Behind Multi-lateral Trade?.  As for Canada, it has always had a close political and economic relationship with it’s southern neighbour.  Placing tariffs on certain products traded to the U.S. can only hurt that relationship.  Canadians are a proud people and take such actions as an affront to their country and its values, as appropriately expressed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  Such actions by this American administration will do nothing but harm the current negotiations around the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  Unfortunately, both American and Canadian workers and consumers will suffer from the most recent U.S.-imposed tariffs.  Charlevoix’s quiet ambience will most certainly be invaded by loud and angry voices.

Leave a comment »

Is Trump Ready To Go To War With Iran and North Korea?

There appears to be a lot of saber-rattling in Washington nowadays! You have Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listing a set of demands aimed at Iran so that it would become everything but a puppet state of the U.S.  One has John Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, who is a well known hawk in and around the capital. A lot of the administration’s critics think that these two would rather skip with the diplomatic niceties and skip straight to military action.

Then we have the European allies, China and Russia who all signed on to the Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal, in 2015. What Pompeo and Trump fail to understand is that the deal was aimed primarily at limiting Iran’s nuclear program by placing restrictions on it and having International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors set up a system that allows the U.N. watchdog to inspect nuclear-related sites in Iran. It was never intended to influence Iran’s general regional policy issues which would have to done through other separate foreign policy initiatives. Of course, Israel never liked the nuclear deal, which did not directly stop Iran from testing or firing ballistic missiles, and persuaded the Trump administration to go it alone. By scrapping the deal, the U.S. will reimpose U.S. sanctions, further hurting the average Iranian. Iran’s government is resolved to resist the American demands, even at the eventual expense of its economy. An anti-American stance can only help the radicals obtain more control of Iran’s politics.

As for North Korea, Kim Jong Un is playing Trump like a fiddle. Anyone who knows anything about his regime, understands that he is not willing to give up his nuclear arsenal.  Signing any peace treaty would require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea, possibly with its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea. Kim also now sees how the U.S. treated the nuclear deal with Iran and will not trust the Americans with any similar deal for North Korea. Kim is also using the current military exercises by the U.S. and its allies in the region as an excuse to potentially pull out of the planned June meeting with Trump. Trump is now caught in an awkward situation where political promises were made and expectations were raised as to some form of eventual deal in the region.  The ball is now in Kim’s court.

All of this signifies that American foreign policy is in a mess. Other than moving toward military actions, show me a strategy that makes sense.  The complexities of foreign policy development have been left to overly simplistic approaches and negotiating tactics.  Even the influence of the most powerful nation on earth won’t be enough to rescue this situation from the heap of manure on which it’s built.  I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be working in the State Department these days.

Leave a comment »

Yes, Donald Trump Is “Vindictive”. His Recent Actions Prove It.

The Oxford Dictionary defines “vindictive” as “having or showing a strong or unreasoning desire for revenge”. When I read that Attorney General Jeff Sessions had fired former FBI deputy director Andrew Mc­Cabe — a little more than 24 hours before Mr. McCabe was set to retire — the first word that came to mind was “vindictive”.  Mr. McCabe had spent more than 20 years at the FBI and was well respected by his colleagues and previous administrations. This firing comes days just after the President suddenly fired his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, using of all things a tweet to inform everyone.  Although not totally unexpected, Mr. Tillerson proved not to be the “yes man” desired by this President.  Again, the manner and speed in which his dismissal was carried out could be described as being “vindictive”.  After all, this was the same person that was rumored to have referred in private to Trump as being a “moron”, which I’m sure was never forgotten.

One again, following the earlier firing of former FBI Director James B. Comey, Mr. McCabe’s firing appears to be one more vindictive attack on the FBI. Remember that Trump’s administration has carried out an ongoing war with the FBI due to the agency’s work for special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s probe into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia. The FBI has also been alleged by the administration of improprieties in the handling of the Clinton email case, despite a lack of evidence supporting the allegations.  Mr. Mc­Cabe’s attorney noted that the intervention by the White House in the Justice Department’s disciplinary process is unprecedented, deeply unfair, and even dangerous.  Moreover, Mr. McCabe was a frequent target of criticism from Trump.  In addition, it was asserted by his lawyer that Mr. McCabe had not been given an adequate chance to respond to the Justice Department’s allegations.  It definitely appears that this may be a good case for a “wrongful dismissal” suit, and if won will no doubt tarnish the President’s and Attorney General’s reputations.

What’s even more troubling in recent weeks is the ongoing loss of Whitehouse staff who have either resigned or been dismissed. As one Political Scientist noted, to date there has never been so much staff turnover and turmoil occurring so early in a first Presidential term.  Way back in February 2016 I published a blog about “Donald Trump and Extreme Narcissism”  (https://froliticks.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/donald-trump-and-extreme-narcissism/).  In it, I noted about extreme narcissists that: “If challenged, they often will bully and disparage those who would dare criticize them.” For the sake of all Americans, I sincerely wish that I had been wrong in my earlier prognosis!

Leave a comment »

Where Is Trump Going With His Foreign Policy — Especially When It Comes To North Korea?

Just learned from a release by the Associated Press that President Trump has dumped Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. Wow!  It’s getting hard to know who is in his Cabinet without a numbered sweater.  What’s even more interesting is that Tillerson’s dismissal comes following Trump’s announcement that he plans to meet with the “little rocket man” — Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s Dictator. Just by sitting down with the President, Kim Jong Un will get what he craves the most: legitimacy.  Of course, this sudden move on the part of Trump most likely caught the former Secretary of State off guard.  Indeed, the entire State Department and foreign service were probably excluded from the decision-making process.  Instead, it appears that the South Korean administration is driving the agenda.  That leaves the Trump administration with few people with experience in dealing with North Korea, while those in the North Korean Foreign Ministry have been working on little else.

No one really knows Kim Jong Un all that while. He certainly has studied Donald Trump.  In the short-run, sanctions relief is definitely one of his goals.  In addition, there is little doubt that the planned May meeting is a ploy on the part of North Korea. Any unlikely peace treaty would require addressing issues regarding the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea and its transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and United Nations forces in South Korea.

Trump is employing a very high-risk strategy which could backfire spectacularly. Kim Jong Un will never agree to so-called “denuclearization” without major unacceptable concessions by the U.S.  Any concessions will certainly strengthen his regime’s safety externally while ensuring his continuing internal control over the North Korean people.  As one expert on North Korea noted: “Kim wants to portray himself as the bold leader of a normal, peace-loving nuclear power who can meet an American president as equals.” For Kim, the associated propaganda will greatly benefit him on the home front where the current sanctions have had a detrimental impact on the day-to-day lives of North Koreans.  Expect more displays of affection for the regime.

The real danger here is that Trump may be all too willing to concede on a number of important policy matters in order to claim some sort of diplomatic triumph. Donald Trump may perceive himself as a “great negotiator”, but he is no match for the North Koreans.  I suspect that Rex Tillerson recognized this, warned Trump, and subsequently left following his voiced objections.  This is an all too familiar occurrence within Trump’s administration, and can only lead to greater White House problems and internal dissension.

Leave a comment »

Does Trump Not Understand Fundamental Principles Behind Multi-lateral Trade?

This past week, President Trump announced (tweet, tweet) that he plans to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Besides affecting trade with Europe and China, the proposed tariffs would particularly affect Canada and Mexico. Canada is the biggest supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S., and Mexico is the fourth largest source of steel. Both countries have asked to be excluded, and both indicated that they would strike back if Trump includes them in the stiff duties.  Trump’s basis for imposing such tariffs is on the grounds of national security, arguing that the U.S. cannot rely on foreign imports for steel and aluminum. This rationale in and of itself is totally baseless given existing security arrangements among the three countries and the nature of their integrated economies.

Not only this, Trump’s announcement has thrown a wrench into current negotiations among the three countries respecting the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The Canadian and Mexican teams are absolutely furious, and rightly so.  The steel and aluminum tariff announcement may have just killed off any hopes of advancing on major sticking points at the NAFTA talks, including setting new rules for auto content in the region.  On top of which, Trump has implied that the two countries would not be excluded from the imposition of tariffs unless a new NAFTA deal is made which would benefit the U.S.  Some negotiating tactic!

The problem for the U.S. is that the Americans export as much steel and aluminum to Canada as they import from Canadian manufacturers. The North American market has nicely evolved over decades to allow both countries to develop more specialized sources of steel manufacturing, benefiting both countries.  This is why U.S. businesses and labour unions (e.g. United Steelworkers or USW) are arguing for an exemption from the planned tariffs. The USW, representing steel workers on both sides of the border, even went on record with the following:

Canada is not the problem. The United States and Canada have integrated manufacturing markets and our union represents trade-impacted workers in both nations. In addition, the defense and intelligence relationship between the countries is unique and integral to our security. Any solution must exempt Canadian production. At the same time, Canada must commit to robust enforcement and enhance its cooperation to address global overcapacity in steel and aluminum. …”

Once again, the Trump administration has demonstrated its complete lack of good economic policy, all in the name of political opportunism. We now have an integrated North American market, exemplified by the fact that Canada is the biggest trade partner with the U.S.  The major problem is that there appears to be a complete lack of understanding as to how multi-lateral trade arrangements work in today’s global markets.  Unfortunately, if Trump’s approach continues, then the NAFTA talks will falter much to the detriment of all three countries and to their respective economies.  Consumers will suffer as will workers.  Hopefully, growing American domestic opposition to Trump’s protectionist trade policies will prevail.  One can only hope!

Leave a comment »

Relations Between Canada and U.S. Are at Their Worst in Many Years

Well, there is little doubt that we start off the New Year with relations between our two countries at their worst in many years. Let’s just summarize some of the issues at hand:

  •  With respect to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), President Trump wants to void the agreement in accordance with his America first policies. Canadian, American and Mexican negotiations are not going well and could break down entirely. In addition, increases in S. duties pertaining to Canadian soft wood imports and Canada’s recent complaint on American trade tariffs to the World Trade Organization, have not helped with the NAFTA talks.  Canada was left no choice in the matter.
  • With respect to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), on which Canada sits as a member, the U.S. is pressuring NATO partners to increase their defence spending as a proportion of the Gross Domestic Product. The U.S. is not happy with Canada’s current defence expenditures, despite Canada’s continuing contribution to the European defence scheme and its past military contributions to Desert Storm and to the war in Afghanistan.
  • On immigration, Canada has seen an increase in refugees crossing its borders from the U.S. because of fears that the Trump administration will end temporary programs — now over ten years old — that accommodated thousands of refugees who had fled natural disasters and violence in their countries. The programs’ termination will affect thousands of refugees from Central America and Haiti. For example, in January 2018, the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security will decide whether to extend the Temporary Protected Status designation for El Salvador.
  • Trump’s declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and his intention to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is in direct contradiction to Canada’s stance which aligns itself with the United Nation’s position. Canada was forced to abstain from a recent UN vote on the American proposition to recognize the above policy. The Trump administration is also threatening to reduce its financial support for the UN and its activities.
  • The Trump administration’s position on ‘climate change’ is in direct opposition to Canada’s position, which along with the rest of the world supports the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015.

These are just a few of the conflicting positions taken by the Trump administration which cause major concerns for the current Canadian government. Ordinary people on both sides of the border remain friends and benefit extensively from the good political and trade relations that have existed for decades.  Canada fought alongside the U.S. in two World Wars, Korea and Afghanistan. Under the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), you have a U.S. and Canadian bi-national organization charged with the missions of aerospace warning and aerospace control for North America. Aerospace warning includes the detection, validation, and warning of attack against North America whether by aircraft, missiles, or space vehicles, through mutual support arrangements with other commands. Canada has cooperated with the U.S. in dealing with major cross-border environmental concerns, including mutual actions to clean up pollution in the Great Lakes and the building and maintenance of the St. Lawrence Seaway.

It’s sad that our neighbour’s government appears to no longer trust us! I firmly believe that the average American, like the average Canadian, still wants to strengthen this important relationship.  Until now, there is little doubt that our close relations have benefited both peoples.  Hopefully, Americans will come to see the potential damage to our relations should the Trump administration’s policies continue down its very rocky road.

Leave a comment »

Things in 2017 That I’d Rather Forget About

As 2017 comes to an end, I look forward with great trepidation and apprehension about what will happen in the New Year. The world appears to be worst off than it was before.  The harsh consequences of climate change appeared regularly while politicians debate whether or not humans are partly responsible for its continued acceleration.  The administration of the world’s largest contributor has buried its head in the sand, preferring to sacrifice the environment on the business alter of multinational corporations.  So sad, so sad, and so dangerous!

The United States and Russia have begun another power struggle, particularly in the Middle East. However, Russia’s President Putin has conveniently cozied up to President Trump by pulling the wool over the latter’s eyes. What a joke! Putin will win another election with any legitimate opposition being silenced, imprisoned or mysteriously murdered!  Meanwhile, the American President continues to fluctuate his support for NATO whenever it suits his mood.  Trump has even managed to piss off Turkey’s regime — a major NATO ally in the Middle East — by proclaiming that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. Any chance for peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians has being stalled for some time to come and violence in the region will continue next year.

North Korea is now a nuclear power, representing a continuing threat to that region. President Trump began a spitting contest with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-un, threatening to eradicate North Korea and its people from the face of the earth. In the meantime, Trump’s Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, continues to reinsure our allies that a diplomatic solution is still being sought. With further intercontinental missile launchings by North Korea, the United Nations once again imposed additional trade sanctions on that country — none of which have had much impact up to now. Meanwhile, North Koreans continue to starve and are deprived of many essentials.

Volumes of stories about sexual harassment or assault by American and Canadian celebrities surfaced in the main media and on social media. It all began with allegations by numerous women against renowned Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein. All of a sudden, many other women were encouraged to bring forward their own complaints of sexual harassment against other well known celebrities. Women began to use the hashtag #MeToo on Twitter if they can relate to the disgusting stories of sexual assault, launching a full blown movement in the U.S., Canada and other countries. Indeed, while the result of full disclosure and support is encouraging, the extent to which sexual harassment and assault was disclosed is certainly discouraging and a blight on men everywhere.  Sexual harassment has no place in today’s workplaces, and should never be covered up by employers, no matter who the culprit is.

These are a few of the things that I’d rather forget about this past year, the least of which is the inauguration of another misogynist Donald J. Trump as the American President.  This past year has been a disaster for the American people and many U.S. allies, including Canada. His America-first policies in respect to trade, foreign policy and the environment have created a great deal on unnecessary uncertainty and instability.  As a member of the international community, I do not foresee any great future improvement in these areas of concern.  I can only hope that the American people will wake up to what is happening and exercise their democratic rights to reverse these destructive trends.

 Have a happy New Year everyone, and good luck. You’ll need it!

Leave a comment »

Trump Administration Attempts to Silence Scientists and Others

It’s been reported that the Trump administration has identified seven words that can no longer be used in official budget documents for the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The forbidden words appear to include, “vulnerable,” “entitlement,” “diversity,” “transgender,” “fetus,” “evidence-based,” and “science-based.”  In addition, the Health and Human Services Department (HHS) dropped questions about sexual orientation and gender identity in two recent surveys and has since removed information about LGBTQ Americans from its website. Furthermore, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has gradually erased mentions of “climate change” from government websites, and U.S. national park climate-related tweets were deleted.  There is clear and growing evidence that Donald Trump is trying to muzzle government scientists on a number of major issues by controlling messaging.

It wasn’t that long ago in Canada in 2006 that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper attempted to do something similar. Indeed, scientists from sixteen federal agencies and departments were instructed that all communications with the Canadian public had to first go through the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) for approval.  This raised the ire of the scientific community, especially when it came to addressing issues surrounding climate change, which the former Conservative government argued was not partly human made.  Government scientists could not publicly release science-based reports or speak at scientific forums without prior PMO approval.  By controlling the messaging, Harper was obviously trying to influence the public perspective on key issues for political reasons.

The same is the case in Trump’s administration with its recent edicts to government agencies such as the CDC, HHS and EPA. The control over messaging doesn’t just mean a change in vocabulary, but is also an attempt to make a radical change in the focus of entire agencies.  Now, the views of U.S. government scientists are being similarly altered by controlling who they’re allowed to talk to, what vocabulary they can use and how they can talk about their own research.  It’s a sad state of affairs when politicians attempt to control public views on important environmental, social and health issues through a deliberate form of “mind-control”.  As was the case in Canada, the American scientific community and the public must demonstrate against such attempts as they violate fundamental elements of free speech and the principles of “evidence-based” research.  After all, what comes next after this form of Trumpism?  Perhaps another form of early 1950s “McCarthyism”.  I’m fearful that time will only tell. Unfortunately, too much is at stake!

Leave a comment »

What’s With Trump And The Middle East!

Well, good old wanna-be President Trump announced that the U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and will eventually move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This is being done without the support of his NATO allies, including Canada and the European Union. In addition, the move would be in contravention of a United Nations’ resolution on the matter.  While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu naturally praised Trump for the announcement, the Arab League and Arab countries including NATO-ally Turkey, condemned the proposed recognition. Violent demonstrations against the American announcement broke out all over the Middle East and even in Canada. So much for America’s neutral honest broker approach to peace talks between Israelis and the Palestinians!

Not only that, the move has benefited Russian President Vladimir Putin who has made in-roads in establishing greater Russian presence in the Middle East. Timing is everything.  As part of a whirlwind Middle Eastern tour, Putin recently visited Syria, Egypt and Turkey. While President Trump sparked outrage across the region, Putin is playing the role of sober and dependable partner, cozying up to major Arab players in the region.  Although Putin can be blamed for supporting Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, he has declared victory over the Islamic State and announced an imminent drawdown of Russian forces in Syria.  Russia is now seen as becoming more influential in Middle Eastern affairs than compared to a decade ago.  With Trump’s recent declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, such a move will only accelerate the decline of U.S. influence and put an end to any American involvement in peace talks between Israel and the Arab countries.

Once again, as with Trump’s idiotic stance on free trade and multi-lateral trade agreements, the current administration’s erratic and chaotic foreign policy changes will only hurt the perception of U.S. leadership abroad. The ‘Ugly American’ has indeed returned.  Even the U.S. State Department, which includes the Foreign Service, is in terrible disarray. Many key foreign posts have yet to be filled.  Even positions taken by current Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, have often been contradicted by tweets or statements by President Trump.  What a mess!  All the rest of the world can do is watch and wonder aloud.

Leave a comment »

U.S. Withdrawal From International Climate Change Initiatives Equals Stupidity and Arrogance

A climate report based on work conducted by scientists in 13 U.S. federal agencies, known as the Climate Science Special Report, finds it is “extremely likely” that more than half of the rise in temperatures over the past four decades has been caused by human activity.  Moreover, the same scientists have warned that President Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement could make it difficult, if not impossible, for the world to stay on track to reach an internationally agreed-upon goal for limiting dangerous global warming.  The U.S. is now the only country which is not part of the agreement.

Now, let’s review the facts as presented. The U.S. faces temperature increases of 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the next few decades even under significantly reduced future emissions. In addition, the record-setting temperatures of recent years will become relatively common in the near future.  An increase in extreme weather patterns has emerged in recent years, as evidenced by record-breaking hurricanes, droughts, flooding, tornados, snow storms and other weather disasters. Climate change represents the greatest risk to human kind, especially in the most vulnerable communities where people are suffering from poverty, water scarcity, food shortages, inadequate housing or other crises.

Climate change denial and downplaying the impact of greenhouse-gas emissions on the climate is nothing less than stupid and arrogant. The American repeal of domestic actions resulting in halting the decline in U.S. emissions will likely make it more difficult and costly to meet the Paris agreement temperature goal of holding warming well below 2°C, and limiting it to 1.5°C.  Indeed, we may have already reached the point of no return.  Without American involvement and support — representing 40% of the world’s wealth — there is a real danger of other countries pulling out of the agreement.  Climate policy experts note that U.S. emissions cuts were set to make up a major part — more than a fifth — of the reductions envisioned under the Paris accord between now and 2030.

What makes the situation even more crazy is that numerous U.S. states, individual cities and major American corporations have banded together in a move to stabilize U.S. emissions, no matter what the Trump administration does on the federal level. It can only be hoped that the Trump administration comes to its senses and gets off its high horse.  Otherwise, every indication is that the future climate will look even bleaker than it already does.  Everyone is affected, and no one will be spared the consequences.

Leave a comment »