FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Nov 11

When Will We Stop Young Men From Going To War?

by bcurry

Years ago, I read somewhere that old men begin wars and send young men to fight them.  This was certainly true of the multitude of wars fought during the Twentieth Century.  Today, it would appear that nothing has really changed.  Look around the world, and you cannot help to witness the continuing atrocities caused by wars and the loss of not only young soldiers, but also, and most importantly, the loss of civilian lives.  There is no need to once again recount the statistical losses of war, for what matters most is the real human suffering that one sees among the individuals and families affected by war.

I had family members who fought in both World Wars, and gratefully had survived to return.  Born shortly after WWII, I lived through the Cold War period and the West’s battles with the then Soviet Union.  I lived through the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the subsequent struggles of East European countries for independence.  I lived through the Vietnam conflict, which one must remember like the earlier Korean conflict, was never officially declared a war by Congress. Then came the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 toppling the long time dictator Saddam Hussein and leading to the subsequent decade occupation of Iraq.  Fortunately, the then Prime Minister Jean Chrétien refused to send Canadian troops to fight in Iraq.  However, Canada did join the NATO mission in Afghanistan where in over ten years of fighting, Canadian combatants loss their lives and several were seriously injured.  With the war in Afghanistan going poorly and in light of the gains being made by the Taliban, the U.S. couldn’t wait to get out of that country, much in the same way the Vietnam conflict ended.  And for what?

Now, we have the Ukrainian-Russian war being initiated by 73 year old Vladimir Putin, a former KGB foreign intelligence officer for 16 years and de facto dictator of Russia since 2000.  To date, while supplying Ukraine with weapons and financial support, no NATO country has boots on the ground in Ukraine.  However, there is little doubt that NATO’s European countries are deeply concerned about Russia’s incursion into Ukraine and potential future threat.  The result is that they have begun to build up their military forces and to expend a larger proportion of their budgets on defence.  Canada, as a NATO member, has also agreed to significantly increase its military spending to meet its continuing commitments to the alliance.

In the Middle East, Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza, its attacks on Iranian nuclear weapons facilities, and its most recent attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar, represents a long period of wars and deaths and destruction on both sides.  Indeed, there have been multiple wars with Israel, including those in 2008-09, 2012, 2014, 2021 and an ongoing one since 2023, which began with the infamous October 7 attacks.  According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, the U.S. spent almost $18 billion on military aid to Israel from October 2023 to October 2024.  While the U.S. continues to provide this massive support, do date President Trump has not indicated that American troops could become directly involved in Gaza.  Time will tell!

People in the Trump administration like to describe the president as a president for peace — this despite the recent change whereby his Secretary of Defense is now the Secretary of War.  In addition, the Trump administration is building up its military presence in the Caribbean, especially off the coast of Venezuela.  Drone attacks have been carried out on boats in international waters, with the administration declaring that these are drug smugglers originating out of Venezuela and supported by the country’s president Nicolás Maduro.  However, some current and former U.S. officials contend that the unspoken goal is the goal is to force Maduro from power.  In other words, regime change.  As of November 6th, the U.S. Senate has twice failed to pass resolutions that would limit Trump’s authority to continue military action against Venezuela or airstrikes against alleged drug vessels.  After long-running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the combination of the words America and regime change raises alarm bells, both inside and outside the U.S.  Let’s hope that this aging American president isn’t once again ready to sacrifice American young lives in another worthless war.

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Jul 17

U.S. Current Involvement In The Middle East Is Just Making Things Worst In The Region

by bcurry

As if the continuing supply of American weaponry to Israel isn’t destabilizing enough with respect to Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran, now the Trump administration has bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and Israel has undertaken further military actions in Syria.  Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition now has received carte blanche from the U.S. to do whatever they believe is in their strategic interests, even if this means further threatening the political and economic stability in the region.  Iran is economically in a mess, and American military actions have simply caused greater consternation and outrage.  Indeed, according to the United Nations’ refugee agency, one of the immediate consequences is the fact that Iran has speeded up its deportation back to Afghanistan of Afghan refugees who number more than 1.4 million in the country.  It’s been reported that the mass expulsions threaten to push Afghanistan further toward the brink of economic collapse with the sudden cut off of vital remittance money to Afghan families from relatives in Iran.  In addition, the sudden influx of returnees piles on Afghanistan’s already grim unemployment, housing and health-care crises.  More than half of Afghanistan’s estimated population of 41 million already relies on humanitarian assistance.

In the case of Syria, Israel recently launched deadly airstrikes on Syria’s capital, damaging a compound housing the defence ministry and hitting an area near the presidential palace, according to the Israeli military and Syrian authorities. The bombardment in central Damascus followed days of bloody clashes involving Syrian government forces in the southern region of Sweida, the heartland of the country’s Druse minority and a strategically important province near Israel and Jordan.  Israeli officials have argued previously that they want to prevent any hostile forces in Syria from entrenching near their borders.  Syria of course has a new interim government following the overthrow of former dictator Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.  Syria’s new president Ahmed al-Shara has tried to stabilize the country since the change of regime and has also attempted to forge closer relations with the U.S.  However, Israeli military actions in Syria could damage these potential improved relations.  The Trump administration so far has been silent on the Israeli initiatives, except to state that they are “very concerned” over the Israeli strikes.

For an administration that claims it is against wars and the killing of civilians in particular, Trump appears to have taken a wait-and-watch position when it comes to Israel’s military actions in the region.  This position has given clear support to Netanyahu’s aggressive military initiatives, whether right or wrong.  This could lead to more awkward and contentious relations between the two administrations.  Even Israel’s apparent attempts to improve relations with other Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia could be in jeopardy with the continuation of Israel’s attacks on its neighbouring states.  It’s becoming harder and harder to justify Israel’s military actions back home in the U.S. and in turn America’s continuing major involvement and military support.  The prospects of a more permanent cease fire with the Palestinians and Iranians is increasingly becoming that much more difficult under the circumstances.

In addition, Ehud Olmert, a former Israeli prime minister, said in an interview with the New York Times: “In Israel, Netanyahu is ready to sacrifice everything for his survival and we are closer to a civil war than people realize. In Gaza, we have returned to fighting — and for what?  And overseas, I never remember such hatred, such opposition, to the state of Israel.”  Opposition to the actions of the Netanyahu administration is growing among Western countries, including Great Britain, the European Union and Canada.  All in all, there is little doubt that the Middle East region is today more unstable than ever, and the Trump administration through it actions or lack thereof has greatly contributed the region’s instability.

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Sep 4

Removal by Canada of Former Afghan Interpreters Was Not an Easy Matter

by bcurry

Canada concluded combat operations in 2011 and left Afghanistan in 2014.  However, many Canadians believe that the Canadian government should help those Afghans who served with Canadian troops and officials, often as interpreters, during that period.  Even in the first years of Canada’s 2006-2011 combat mission in Kandahar province, there were numerous reports of the Taliban murdering interpreters.  For this reason, the Canadian government launched a program in 2009 to bring interpreters and their families to Canada.  About 800 interpreters immigrated here, but the program was often criticized for being too restrictive.  At that time, these Afghans and their families would have not been declared as “refugees”, but would have been brought into Canada under the Afghan special-immigration measure. 

Not applying refugee status at that time was for a number of reasons.  First, the Afghan government did not threaten them or persecute them.  The primary danger was from the Taliban insurgents, from whom the Afghan administration and security force were to provide security as the legitimate governing body.  Secondly, these Afghans would not have been recognized by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees under the Refugee Convention.  Thirdly, refugees must be outside of their home countries, that is, they must enter another country before they can claim to be refugees.  Fourthly, to be classified as a refugee, a person must be persecuted because of race, religion, nationality, political opinion and membership in a particular social group as per the above convention.  War, violence and poverty are not enough to qualify for refugee status.  Thus, it was not until the Taliban had overthrown the previous Afghan government that one could even contemplate giving any Afghans such a status.  As Afghanistan teetered on the brink of collapse, Canada took almost two months for the new special immigration measure to be announced in late July.

However, no one, including the Americans, believed a few months and even weeks ago, that the Afghan security forces would have failed so quickly to repel the Taliban assault.  Once this became clear, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) officials moved quickly to attempt to assist Canadian citizens and former Afghan interpreters and their families to fly out of Kabul.  Regrettably, we all saw the unbelievable chaos that ensued once the Taliban had taken possession of Kabul.  In the end, some estimate that only 18 percent of the 2,000 ex-employees and family members managed to get onto flights to Canada.  Unfortunately, there are still hundreds of similar Afghans wanting to flee to Canada who are currently stuck in the country and remain in danger.  Needless-to-say, Canadian vets of Afghanistan are not happy with the delays and the results.  One cannot really blame them, except to repeat that these former Afghan allies and friends could not have been processed any faster under the difficult circumstances existing in Taliban-controlled Kabul.

Some observers have argued that, instead of funnelling everyone to Kabul, IRCC officials should have encouraged them to head immediately to safety in neighbouring countries.  Of course, there are risks with doing so! They then would have to be declared convention refugees by the United Nations or other governments.  As refugees, these Afghans could then apply to come to Canada.  However, under the UN’s process, this would normally take years.  Can Canada speed up the process?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  The fact is that, like the U.S. and other allies, the ability for Canada to accommodate the immigration of Afghan interpreters and their families was limited by the former Afghan government and the unusual difficulties in declaring them to be recognized as refugees under the existing international convention.  In order for Canada to live up to its humanitarian responsibilities, one can only hope that these Afghans can be helped in a timely way so as to eventually live in a country wishing to demonstrate its gratitude for their sacrifices.

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Aug 18

Once Again, as in the Case of Vietnam, the U.S Military Misled the President

by bcurry

As many of us predicted some time ago, the Afghan ruling government was overthrown by the Taliban this past week.  This despite the fact that President Biden had just reassured Americans that the Afghan military and security forces would be able to defend Kabul against any Taliban attacks.  One counted on the over 300,000 security forces, armed and trained by the Allies, to defend the capital and reigning government against a poorer armed estimated force of 85,000 Taliban insurgents.  Well, as in the case of South Vietnam and the fall of Saigon in April 1975, the disintegration of the military and ruling government ended with the rapid fall of Kabul.  Thus came the familiar sight of Allied embassy staffs, their families and some Afghan officials fleeing the country in frightening moments of utter chaos.  Like in Saigon, helicopters circled the U.S. embassy in Kabul as its diplomatic personnel were under evacuation orders.  Frankly, it appears that no one expected to see this, and most especially U.S. military commanders.

Let’s take a step back.  Once the President announced the complete American troop withdrawal by this fall, there was an obvious surge in Taliban attacks in several provinces, ending in the successful capture of key cities and border areas —  in some cases with little opposition from government forces.  Next, Afghanistan’s president Ashraf Ghani and members of his administration suddenly fled the country to God knows where, without really any advance notice to the Americans.  No interim governing administration was left in his place.  What’s interesting is that, according to current and former U.S. officials familiar with the matter, there had been an already stark intelligence assessment predicting Kabul could be overrun within six to 12 months.  Even as the President Biden was telling the public that Kabul was unlikely to fall, intelligence assessments apparently painted a grimmer picture, suggesting that the Afghan military collapse could be more rapid than expected.  In addition, it became clear that the so-called peace agreement hammered out under former President Donald Trump, that promised the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Afghanistan, wasn’t worth the paper on which it was written.   

Taliban co-founder and de facto leader Abdul Ghani Baradar triumphantly arrived in Afghanistan this week for the first time in more than a decade, and immediately declared ‘amnesty’ for former Afghan government officials.  If anyone believes in the Taliban’s generosity and promised clemency, I’ve got Florida swamp land to sell them if interested.  Right now, there continues to be western media coverage while the Americans and allies continue the evacuation efforts at the Kabul airbase.  Once completed, you can bet that the Taliban administration will impose tight controls on all media and telecommunication networks, most likely including internet services which didn’t exist twenty years ago.  Future news about the Taliban regime’s actions will be tightly controlled, especially anything dealing with the anticipated reprisals among Afghan security personnel and Allied collaborators.

Now with the Americans hastily exiting Afghanistan and no U.S.-backed government in power, one can bet that bordering countries such as Pakistan, Russia and China are considering how to promote their interests in a Taliban-led Afghanistan.  On the other hand, the U.S., Canada and their NATO allies have no plans to recognize the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan, as was the case 20 years ago.  Indeed, the U.S. and Canada still view the Taliban as a ‘terrorist’ group. 

Unfortunately, while many Afghan national army troops may have fought bravely, the inevitable government’s collapse happened much faster than expected.  U.S. military sources, as early as a week ago, wrongly expressed glowing and misleading reviews of the Afghan army’s readiness.  However, even the American intelligence community was taken by surprise at how fast the total collapse occurred.  Sounds familiar, think back to the rapid collapse of the American-backed government and military in South Vietnam!

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