FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Jul 8

More Than Just the Temperature, Politics Is Getting Very Hot South of the Canadian Border

by bcurry

Canadians are becoming very concerned about what is happening with respect to the upcoming American elections.  Many of us, myself included, closely watched the televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump.  Clearly this was a defining moment for both presidential candidates, and especially for 81 year old Joe Biden.  Almost immediately, one could see that something was not quite right with Biden.  Frankly, it was hard to watch and one could only feel a sense of sorrow and dread for his haltering performance.  Sorry, something is not quite right in the Whitehouse.  All kinds of excuses and denials began to emerge from his immediate family, his Vice-President and several key Democrats.  Now, the pressure is apparently on from several top Democrats to reassess Biden’s continuation of his campaign and leadership.  However, the President insists that he will continue to run and that he is capable of performing the duties of the most important leader of the Western world.

So where does that leave us?  The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and closest ally without doubt.  The prospect of another presidency under Donald Trump has major implications for our relationship, especially in the domestic and international settings.  Given Trump’s campaign promises, nothing that would result has much benefit when looking at future U.S.-Canada relations.  No, this is not an exaggeration!  Right now, the Canadian government is closely examining each and every statement released by Trump.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is seriously lagging in Canadian polls, may even use the possibility of a future Trump administration to suggest that he is most qualified to confront Trump on matters of trade and defence.  Remember that Canada had to fight tooth and nail to get the Americans to agree to Canada’s new trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA — back in 2018.  There are some experts who claim that Canada lost out in agreeing to the USMCA, especially with respect to each country’s monetary and exchange rate policies and their trade in autos.  One has to wonder if Trump will push to reopen the USMCA to the detriment of the Canadian economy?  More tariffs anyone!

Between now and the November elections, a lot of things can happen.  However, time is running out for the Democrats.  Like a significant number of American voters, most Canadians believe that President Biden should step aside.  Given his latest public appearances and debate performance, there is a lot of concern about the President’s cognitive capabilities.  Donald Trump and the Republicans will continue to harp on the President’s general health, using it to increase their polling results.  Most observers believe that President Biden’s chances of winning the election are increasingly slim.  More importantly, what will the situation mean for the Democrats in congressional and state gubernatorial elections?  All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested.  Trump may not get the popular vote, but all he needs is a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win the election.  At this time, the odds are that he could very well achieve this.

In the still unlikely scenario in which Biden steps down as the nominee, the delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago would suddenly be charged with picking a new nominee.  Who that nominee would be is still anyone’s guess.  There is little doubt that an intense and hot debate is going on among Democrats behind the scene.  The heat keeps mounting every day and President Biden must be feeling it right now.  To my knowledge, at no time in the history of United States has such a development occurred between the two major parties!  With all the ongoing speculation, mainstream and social media are having a field day.  When it comes to the divisive nature of this issue for the Democratic Party, no one can really comprehend where it’s going at this time.  I, like many Canadians, hope that the Party can resolve the issue prior to the Convention.  Personally, the situation makes it very difficult to support President Biden’s bid for a second term in office.  The world is watching, including our adversaries.

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Jan 4

Strange Situation In Republican Primaries For Their Presidential Nominee

by bcurry

As a Canadian political observer, there is little doubt that the current situation south of the border involving the Republican Party (GOP) and their selection of a presidential candidate to run in the election later this year is all very strange.  You have former President Donald Trump who is currently under indictment in four different civil and criminal cases.  Despite this, the majority of GOP supporters continue to back Trump, with the polls showing that he is still leading the other GOP candidates by a substantial margin.  Trump’s primaries’ platform to date has reflected his desire for “personal retribution” against those who opposed him following his failure to get re-elected in 2020, and to implement an “autocratic” regime.

In addition, one of the indictments pertains to the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by a violent mob and Trump’s alleged role in the conspiracy to keep himself in power by overturning the election results.  Recently, both Maine and Colorado had decisions to throw Trump off the ballot over 14th Amendment’s ban on “insurrectionists”.  Given this unprecedented situation, Trump is expected to appeal and both cases are likely to end up at the U.S. Supreme Court.  On top of which, Trump’s main GOP primary rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have declined to attack Trump with regards to any of the indictments for fear of upsetting Trump’s GOP base and thereby loosing their potential support.

Given his apparent continuing political support among the MAGA Republicans, Trump has declined to even participate in the recent candidate debates, something unheard of in Canadian politics.  When leadership conventions are held in Canada, current party leaders or aspiring party members to lead the party are required to present their platforms in front of party members as part of the voting at the party convention.  As well, open candidate debates are held prior to the leadership convention.  In the case of Trump, the other candidates are at a disadvantage since they cannot debate him in an open forum, subsequently being left to mainly attack each other in his absence.  Trump, on the other hand, has simply continued to carry out his usual style of campaigning in public and through media coverage, openly attacking his GOP rivals in his traditional style of vicious name calling and spiteful insinuations about their character.

What is even crazier, a new poll recently taken by the Washington Post with the University of Maryland indicated that MAGA has not only stuck with Trump on the questions of January 6th, but a few who even believed that he might have done something wrong at the time have now come back to his side.  Still, they apparently aren’t many.  However, Republicans loved Trump then and they appear to continue to love him now.  Nevertheless, there is little doubt that should Trump be convicted of a criminal indictment, the majority of American voters nationally, especially independents, would choose President Biden over Trump in the next presidential election.  On the other hand, polls indicate that Republicans don’t seem to care.  They’re even starting to warm to the idea of Trump serving from a jail cell, which legal experts believe is constitutionally possible.  This result would really be bewildering to say the least!

For this reason, NBC News reported in December 2023 that Trump’s campaign believes the January 6th trial was specifically timed to take him off the campaign trail at a crucial stage. They further believe that they can outsmart the prosecutors by wrapping up the primaries early.  At this time, much is up in the air when it comes to trial dates surrounding the indictments.  Observers also correctly believe that Trump doesn’t want the particular January 6th trial to happen anytime soon.  It’s pretty much self-evident that he really doesn’t want to be convicted, despite his lawyers’ assurances about an appeal.  Obviously, they further believe that should he win the election, Trump would simply pardon himself and be done with it.

Anyone, including myself, watching this “circus” from afar is left scratching their heads.  Democracy had taken a serious beating in light of Donald Trump’s ridiculous accusations that the 2020 presidential election was stolen by Joe Biden.  His continuing attacks on the judicial and democratic processes in public forum, culminating in the terrible attack on the Capitol, have resulted in major blows to the state of American democracy.  His disposition for autocratic leanings is of great concern to other democracies, including that in Canada.  In the coming months, Canadians need to more closely watch the strange situation flowing from the GOP primaries.  One way or another, the results will affect us all!

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Sep 7

What’s Going On With All These Pollsters?

by bcurry

Pick up any newspaper today or read news articles online, and you can’t avoid seeing the most recent polls concerning the U.S. presidential primaries or the standings of federal political parties and their leaders in Canada.  The most interesting polls of course have to do with the potential impact of the recent indictments against former President Donald Trump.

However, support for Trump, may obscure a still varied Republican electorate. To better understand the party today, one pollster split Republican and Republican-leaning voters into groups, based on the results of its Times/Siena poll. The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump.  The results depict a Republican coalition that consists of different six groups.  Their support for Trump varies accordingly.

According to a poll commissioned by POLITICO Magazine and conducted by Ipsos in June, roughly half of the country believes that Trump committed the crimes alleged against him.  What should happen to Trump if he gets convicted?  The poll’s results show that forty-three percent said he should go to prison, but most were willing to spare him jail time.  Nearly a quarter of respondents said that Trump should incur no punishment at all (22 percent), while 18 percent said he should receive probation and another 17 percent said he should face only a financial penalty.  Interestingly, roughly one-third of respondents said that they are not particularly familiar with the allegations in the indictment cases.

Nationally, recent polls indicate that support for President Biden and Trump is about evenly split.  However, analysts note that should Trump win the Republican primaries, he would most likely loose to Biden. This despite voter concerns over Biden’s age and his low approval ratings.

In Canada, the political drama is far less evident than in the U.S.  Recent polls show that the current leader of the federal Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has pulled ahead of Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.  Moreover, an Ipsos poll in December 2022 indicated that nearly half of Canadians want there to be a federal election in 2023, although the official deadline for the next federal election is 2025.  In addition, the poll indicated that, after over eight years in office, a slim majority of those polled are hoping one politician won’t be running in the next election: Prime Minister Trudeau.  Fifty-four percent of those polled said Trudeau should step down as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2023, although just 27 percent said they actually believe he’ll do so.  The Prime Minister’s approval rating has been coming down when compared to Poilievre’s.  However, with an election still potentially two years away, anything can happen as indicated by recent polls, and much will depend on the regional distribution of votes.

Polls are powerful – they can influence emotions and shape political fortunes. They can be used to drum up support for campaigns and reveal how closely aligned (or far apart) the general public is on consequential presidential or prime ministerial policies.  Recent national elections have reminded us how problematic it is when we think of polls as forecasts of the future rather than a glimpse at where people stand at a given moment in time.  Also, not all polls include a margin of error, including non-probability polls such as those you can opt into online.  According to Pew Research Center, participants for these polls self-select, or opt in, and there is a risk that “these samples will not resemble the larger population”.

Polling is a huge industry.  All political parties and many third-parties, including media sources, use polls to get an idea where the voters stand on certain issues and how much support is out there for parties’ platforms.  Past history has shown that the closer one gets to an election date, the more accurate certain polling can begun.  Unfortunately, polls released just prior to that date can potentially influence the way in which certain voters, especially the undecideds, may consider voting.  After all, everyone prefers to support a potential winner, notably if they are voting as independents.  Prior to the next American and Canadian elections, I’d be closely watching the potential impact of polling and whether the results reflect the final outcome of the election.

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Dec 21

Differences in Governance Systems in Canada and the U.S. Do Matter

by bcurry

Back in high school and in university we were introduced to the two systems of governance in Canada, Great Britain and the U.S.  Canada like the U.K is a parliamentary system, with the normal three levels of governance: the legislature, executive and judiciary components.  As a republic, the U.S. has a similar constitutional makeup, although how each of the members is selected varies greatly.  In Canada, the Prime Minister is selected by which party gets the most seats in the House of Commons.  The PM also sits in Parliament.  Sometimes, if a party doesn’t win the majority of seats to form a government, the party with the most seats can negotiate with another party to form what is referred to as a “minority government”.  Minority governments are tricky because they can be toppled by a “confidence vote” on critical motions such as a budget.  Canada currently has a minority government as a result of the last federal election in September 2021. The PM currently selects the members to Cabinet who are normally members of Parliament, unlike in the U.S. where the President selects Cabinet members who do not sit in Congress.

In the U.S., citizens vote separately for the President and for candidates to the House of Representatives and the Senate, often in what are referred to as “mid-term elections”.  Unlike in Canada where there are mainly five official parties, the U.S. only has two parties: the Democrats and the Republicans.  As a result, Congress can often see a split in control between the House of Representatives and the Senate, as is the case now with the Republicans controlling the House and the Democrats the Senate.  In addition, there are those members who are independents.  The Canadian Senate on the other hand is made up of appointed members (by the Governor General on the PM’s recommendation) who now do not have any party affiliation.  Compared to the American Senate, the Canadian Senate does not have much power, especially when it comes to financial matters such as the budget.  It examines bills referred from the House and can recommend amendments which the governing party can accept or ignore in the final reading before parliament.  While committee hearings before the U.S. Senate can make or break policies or federal appointments, the Canadian Senate’s committees can simply provide reports on selected subjects which the Government most often ignores and get shelved.

Appointments to the Supreme Court are a whole other matter.  In the U.S., such appointments are highly politicized and depend on which party the President and Senate members come from.  In recent years, the majority of Supreme Court justices have been appointed under Republican regimes, resulting in a prevalent conservative court.  In Canada, on the other hand, Supreme Court appointments are more or less apolitical and made to reflect regional, ethnic and affirmative action considerations.  Frankly, given recent decisions by the American Supreme Court (e.g. Roe vs. Wade), I must say that I prefer the more independent Canadian version when it comes to appointing jurists.

There will always be debates over which system is better.  The fact of the matter is that both have their benefits and flaws.  One major concern with the American system is how the President is elected and the role of the “electoral college”.  For example, in the case of Donald Trump, he had smaller percentage of the popular vote than Hillary Clinton and yet won the election.  In both countries, it is especially important to win certain urban and rural areas in order to be politically successful.  For this reason, parties target certain key states in the U.S. and certain key provinces in Canada.  One major difference is how candidates in the election process are funded.  In the U.S. there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as Super PACs (political action committees).  For example, this year’s midterm election was expected to set a new spending record, with over $9 billion being raised. This is significantly higher than the previous record of $7 billion, which was set in 2018.  In Canada, contributions to candidates are far less and are regulated by controls enforced by an independent agency, namely Elections Canada.

To change the current governance systems in both countries would require significant constitutional amendments which don’t appear to be on the horizon anytime soon.  I would suggest, maybe just maybe, the time is right for governments to re-examine the governance processes in light of our histories and the continuing changes in both societies.

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Jun 30

Senator Kamala Harris Would Make a Good President

by bcurry

Well, a presidential election is scheduled to be held in the fall of 2020. Already, the debates have started among a boatload of Democratic hopefuls in preparation for the upcoming primaries.  Who is going to run against Donald Trump?  Hopefully not the likes of Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders!  It would be nice to see a President who isn’t over the age of 75 and who didn’t carry a lot of baggage.

Right now, I believe that Senator Kamala Devi Harris would be an excellent candidate for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, at 54, she is part of Generation X (those born between 1965 and 1980) which helped to bring in the twenty-first century.  Secondly, she is a woman of  Jamaican or Indian ancestry, reflecting the new diversity with the U.S. population. Although she has no children, she has two adult stepchildren through her marriage making her aware of parental issues affecting today’s youth.

Her professional qualifications provide her with a good foundation for dealing with today’s issues. Since 2017, she has been California’s third female U.S. Senator. Prior to that, Senator Harris served as the San Francisco District Attorney for seven years and as the Attorney General of California for six years.  As a prosecutor, she dealt with numerous high-level cases.

With respect to her progressive policies, she has supported single-payer healthcare, actions on climate change, education reform, federal descheduling of cannabis, municipal protection for undocumented immigrants, the DREAM Act, and lowering the tax burden for the working and middle classes while raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest one percent of Americans. She is someone who would not rely solely on the military to formulate foreign policy, as is the case now.  Her positions are in sharp contrast to those of President Trump and the Republicans.  Americans need to have a clear choice between two platforms and two visions of what kind of country they want, with no mudding of the waters by the centrists.  Such a contrast was not evident during Hilliary Clinton’s campaign.

If I were Donald Trump’s campaign team, I’d be a lot more concerned about Senator Harris as an opponent than either Sanders or Biden. While he represents the past and the status quo, she represents the potential for a dynamic and new prosperous future for America.

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Mar 31

Are Actions by Trump’s Followers a Reflection of a Violent Society?

by bcurry

When you have what is the most violent society among western industrialized nations, it’s not surprising that violence has broken out at political rallies involving Trump’s supporters. Not only has the potential Republican presidential nominee condoned such violence, he has even encouraged it through his very own words.  Wow, and these are only the primaries.  What will actual election campaigning look like?  In one state, Republican supporters have even suggested that they be allowed to carry weapons into a Trump rally.

It appears that no matter how outlandish, Trump can say anything and get away with it among his supporters. Imagine, here you have a presidential hopeful proclaiming that he could shoot someone in the middle of Manhattan, and no one would care.  Lately, he suggested that women who have had an abortion should be punished in some way.  He has also proposed that nuclear weapons be used in the fight against ISIS. Sexist language is being used that denigrates women and racist and divisive comments spew out of this extreme narcissist’s mouth.

His supporters are lapping it up, continuing to sucker punch and pepper spray peaceful protesters at Trump rallies. His own campaign staff has physically manhandled and verbally harassed members of the media, in particular female reporters.  It’s only a matter of time before someone gets killed.

Dear Mr. Trump, the world is watching and waiting. The damage to American democratic values and reputation as a world leader will have future consequences.  This is no laughing matter, as violence is always met with violence.  I firmly believe that the majority of Americans cannot and do not condone such violent behaviour.  My American neighbours are better than that, and Donald Trump is not a harbinger of things to come.

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Feb 29

Donald Trump and Extreme Narcissism

by bcurry

I’ve just finished a fascinating recent book by Dr. Joseph Burgo dealing with extreme narcissists. Guess what?  Donald Trump is given as one example of an extreme narcissist in the book.  Basically, narcissism is recognized in psychologists/psychiatrists circles as a mental illness, often referred to as “narcissistic personality disorder”.  People with narcissistic personality disorder are characterized by exaggerated feelings of self-importance.  They have a sense of entitlement and demonstrate grandiosity in their beliefs and behaviour.  They also have a strong need for admiration, are manipulative, but lack feelings of empathy.  If challenged, they often will bully and disparage those who would dare criticize them.  Sound familiar?

What’s interesting is that Sarah Palin, who once ran as a Vice-Presidential candidate in the U.S., was also described by Dr. Burgo as an extreme narcissist in his book. So here we have one extreme narcissist publicly endorsing another extreme narcissist, Donald Trump, for the Republican Presidential candidate.  Like two peas in a pod, both Palin and Trump have histories of making outlandish and irresponsible statements about American values, politics and policies.

Unfortunately, Trump is the most dangerous of narcissists in that he can attract a fairly large following by being outrageous and expressing the evident anger of some Americans against the so-called political establishment. He is very effective in using his celebrity and money to convince average Americans that he has simple solutions to all their problems.  Stop illegal immigrants by building a wall and have the Mexican government pay for it.  Prevent terrorists from entering the country by banning Moslems from entry.  Resolve foreign policy conflicts by bombing the hell out of everyone.  All with the ultimate goal to make America great again!  As Hillary Clinton has said: “Since when has America not being great.”

I can only hope that Americans, particularly Republicans, will more thoroughly research Trump’s history, both business and political, to really see his portrait for what it is: that of  an extreme narcissist.

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Sep 18

Tis the Season for Political Debates

by bcurry

Well summer is coming to an end. Now begins a new season of politicking and televised debates, both in the U.S. and Canada. Don’t get me wrong, I think that televised debates have a place in letting potential voters know about candidates’ policies and their ability to express themselves in a clear and concise manner. Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy were two of the first presidential candidates to have a televised debate. Due to its novelty at the time, millions of Americans and Canadians watched the debate. Kennedy took full advantage of his good looks (i.e. formidable charisma) and speaking style to hammer Nixon in that debate. Kennedy’s photogenic qualities definitely helped him to go on to win his presidential race. Nixon’s image did not come across at all well on the television screen, although he was a good debater.

With the advent of social media and other avenues for displaying one’s politics, the role of television and radio have somewhat diminished. While watching a couple of recent political debates, it seemed like each debater was attempting to get that one memorable stinger against the others — that one 30 second notable quote. Then, it’s up to the media gurus to analyze the results, proclaiming winners and losers. Needless-to-say, political commentators have their biases just like the rest of us. Debating results usually don’t affect the choices of the majority of voters who have already made up their minds or vote along party lines like the robots they are. Candidates today prepare carefully for such debates with the help of media experts, image and speech consultants. Some may even take acting courses. Indeed, it’s often not what you say that counts, but how you say it.

Let’s face it. Television is old school. Most of our younger voters, including those between 25 and 40 years old, will obtain their information through various forms of social media. They do not watch televised news, listen to radio talk shows or read newspapers. The declining ratings for televised debates only highlights this major change. Today’s voters don’t have time to sit through long drawn out debates. When it comes to elections and party politics, all they want are short blips. The “me generation” is just too busy multitasking nowadays.

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