FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Trump’s Current Energy Policies Just Don’t Make Sense

There is no more clean and renewable federal energy support in the U.S.as a result of Donald Trump’s most recent policy actions.  In his first term as president, he imposed tariffs on imported solar panels, whereby American companies opened or announced plans for new U.S. solar panel factories, thereby reviving a manufacturing business that had largely withered away.  Now, those same companies, particularly in solar manufacturing, are concerned that the attack on clean energy, especially solar and wind, and increasing support for fossil fuels will mean a potential disaster for the continued growth of the industry.  Indeed, it has been reported that Mike Carr, the executive director of Solar Energy Manufacturers for America, concluded that the administration’s policies would give the entire solar manufacturing industry over to China starting in 2027.  The shift has been particularly jarring in Texas and other Sun Belt states.  For example, renewable energy companies had announced plans for $64 billion in new investments in Texas, mostly for solar and battery storage projects, when Washington passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022. 

On the other hand, the oil and gas industry is counting on the administration’s help to keep oil and gas prices higher in order to increase exploration and lower fracking costs, and subsequently their profits.  With a strong desire not to offend the president, one has to remember that the oil and gas industry apparently spent more than $75 million to elect Trump.  Interestingly, the U.S. also relies heavily on Canadian oil in particular, which American refineries combine with domestic crude to make gasoline and diesel fuel.  For this reason, there is much industry anxiety around the tariffs on Canadian oil currently set at 10 percent.  This and cross border pipeline discussions will certainly dominate trade talks between the two countries.

Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency — paired with other executive orders — amounts to a promise to test the limits of presidential power to ensure demand for fossil fuels, including coal, remains robust.  It’s a sharp reversal from his predecessor’s agenda, which aimed to push the nation away from fuels that are primarily responsible for climate change.  In addition, Trump’s efforts to support coal during his first term were no match for cheap natural gas that ultimately out competed coal in the market.  U.S. coal consumption reportedly declined more than a third during Trump’s first term.  Coal extraction is clearly no longer economically viable.

Studies have also shown that any restrictions on renewable development would increase electricity prices over the next decade in both Canada and the U.S., and potentially leave thousands of homes without electricity during extreme weather events.  For this reason, Canada is continuing to promote the expansion of clean energy, including that produced by nuclear and wind and solar.  On the other hand, the demand for electricity continues to increase due to new high tech needs, including those related to transportation and artificial intelligence.  Canada, unlike the U.S. under President Trump, is still committed to tackling the adverse effects of climate change by attempting to lessen our reliance on fossil fuels and by reducing our green house emissions.

Solar energy and wind power are much more capable of having electricity provided in a more decentralized and efficient way by being located closer to the sources of need, without the requirement for costly long-distance transmission infrastructure.  This more mobile asset can reduce the initial costs of electricity production and in turn the costs of delivery to consumers.  Not surprisingly, the current shift has been particularly jarring in Texas, a Republican state and the nation’s top wind power producer, second only to California in solar energy and industrial battery storage.  Moreover, the Trump administration’s energy policies just don’t make sense, adding to the inflationary cost of electricity for consumers and to the costs associated with the evident extreme consequences of climate change.

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Current and Future Demand for “New Collar” Workers

A recent article by Lora Kelly of the New York Times describes what is now referred to as “new collar” jobs. Of course, we are all familiar with what we refer to as being blue collar, white collar, pink collar and green collar.  “New collar” jobs are described as those that require advanced skills but not necessarily advanced degrees, especially in emerging high-tech fields like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, electric vehicles and robotics.  Kelly also notes that there are real fears that workers will lose jobs to technology, especially artificial intelligence, in the coming years.  However, there are others who see numerous future opportunities for the labour force.

Even with these new technologies in what is called the new industrial revolution, there will always be a need for highly skilled workers to maintain and adapt technologies in each industry.  Conversely, while there is this emerging demand, numerous companies and governments are having trouble filling many of these new collar jobs.  This lack of supply is partly because of outdated criteria which requires that candidates have college degrees in order to apply.  Some refer to this outcome as the result of certain jobs being “overcredentialed”, resulting in employers overlooking an entire pool of qualified, available candidates.  With the speed with which technologies are evolving, many employers are now looking to finding candidates who can be trained in-house for the technical skills required to meet their current and future labour needs.

Post-secondary degrees will of course continue to be required for entry into specific occupations such as medicine, law, engineering, etc., etc.  However, we have to find alternative means to ensuring the new collar jobs can be filled in a timely and efficient manner, allowing qualified persons to have entry access.  As the future of work continues to evolve, so too do the skills that individuals and organizations need in order to succeed.  In Canada for example, the Public Policy Forum, the Diversity Institute, and the Future Skills Centre joined together in 2020 to publish Skills Next (Skills Next Series – Future Skills Centre • Centre des Compétences futures (fsc-ccf.ca), a series that explores what is working in workplaces, universities, and the labour market.  The studies examine where workers are falling through the gaps in our skills training system.  Their subsequent reports focus on one issue – such as the impact of technology in the workplace, gig work, digital skills, and barriers to employment that some marginalized groups experience – and review the existing state of knowledge and identify areas in need of additional research.

More needs to be done to determine which jobs are and will be “new collar”, as well as how the demand for skilled workers will be met.  This will require the participation and collaboration by universities, colleges, corporations, governments and research bodies to develop an elaborate set of policies to tackle the issues surrounding the evolving needs for future skills development.  There is no sector of the economy that isn’t affected by the introduction of new technologies.  As we enter a New Year, there is no better time than the present to undertake the required initiatives to meet the challenges.

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Several American Unions Are Striking Partly Over Technological Change

As one union leader pointed out, we are in a new industrial revolution spurred on by advances in high tech, including in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).

Just this past week, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union in the U.S. went on strike, targeting strikes in three locations against the big three auto makers: General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Jeep and Ram.  Now, while the strike by the UAW is about the usual contract items such as wages and benefits, there is one additional item — the preservation of union jobs as they ramp up electric vehicle manufacturing and as the industry shifts to batteries.  Because they have fewer parts, electric cars can be made with fewer workers than gasoline vehicles.  Plants that make mufflers, catalytic converters, fuel injectors and other components that electric cars don’t need will have to be overhauled or shut down.

In another instance, back in the spring, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.  Again, the main issues are related to fair compensation.  Shortly after, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) went on strike in July, joining the WGA.  This is the first time that both the WGA and SAG have been on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers at the same time since 1960.  Again, technological changes are among the issues at hand for both groups, including changes to the entertainment environment due to streaming and the potential use of AI in screen productions and script writing.

Madeline Janis, executive director of Jobs to Move America, an advocacy group that works closely with the U.A.W. and other unions, noted: “The U.A.W. is really taking a stand for communities across the country to make sure this transition benefits everybody.”  Declaring this as the dawn of another industrial revolution, she highlights that the strike is probably the first of many to come in sectors where unions are faced with significant technological changes, including in mainstream media as regards journalism, the trucking industry with respect to self-driving vehicles, etc., etc.  In the past, robotics and automation dominated many of the unions’ concerns.  Now, a whole new era has begun.  One has to believe that workers are ready to take a firm stand, as well as employers who are faced with stift competition, often from non-unionized companies.  As a result, such strikes could be long and nasty.

There is little that governments can do to prevent the prolongation of strikes during the current environment, especially when it comes to technological changes driven by global market forces.  We have yet to see the full impact of AI on employment and the workplace as it is still in its infancy stages.  There are a lot of difficult questions that need to be asked.  As in the past with respect to technological change, the union movement will be among the first to seek out the answers.  For this reason, I look forward to witnessing and analyzing the outcomes of these confrontations.

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