FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Jul 3

Trump’s Current Energy Policies Just Don’t Make Sense

by bcurry

There is no more clean and renewable federal energy support in the U.S.as a result of Donald Trump’s most recent policy actions.  In his first term as president, he imposed tariffs on imported solar panels, whereby American companies opened or announced plans for new U.S. solar panel factories, thereby reviving a manufacturing business that had largely withered away.  Now, those same companies, particularly in solar manufacturing, are concerned that the attack on clean energy, especially solar and wind, and increasing support for fossil fuels will mean a potential disaster for the continued growth of the industry.  Indeed, it has been reported that Mike Carr, the executive director of Solar Energy Manufacturers for America, concluded that the administration’s policies would give the entire solar manufacturing industry over to China starting in 2027.  The shift has been particularly jarring in Texas and other Sun Belt states.  For example, renewable energy companies had announced plans for $64 billion in new investments in Texas, mostly for solar and battery storage projects, when Washington passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022. 

On the other hand, the oil and gas industry is counting on the administration’s help to keep oil and gas prices higher in order to increase exploration and lower fracking costs, and subsequently their profits.  With a strong desire not to offend the president, one has to remember that the oil and gas industry apparently spent more than $75 million to elect Trump.  Interestingly, the U.S. also relies heavily on Canadian oil in particular, which American refineries combine with domestic crude to make gasoline and diesel fuel.  For this reason, there is much industry anxiety around the tariffs on Canadian oil currently set at 10 percent.  This and cross border pipeline discussions will certainly dominate trade talks between the two countries.

Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency — paired with other executive orders — amounts to a promise to test the limits of presidential power to ensure demand for fossil fuels, including coal, remains robust.  It’s a sharp reversal from his predecessor’s agenda, which aimed to push the nation away from fuels that are primarily responsible for climate change.  In addition, Trump’s efforts to support coal during his first term were no match for cheap natural gas that ultimately out competed coal in the market.  U.S. coal consumption reportedly declined more than a third during Trump’s first term.  Coal extraction is clearly no longer economically viable.

Studies have also shown that any restrictions on renewable development would increase electricity prices over the next decade in both Canada and the U.S., and potentially leave thousands of homes without electricity during extreme weather events.  For this reason, Canada is continuing to promote the expansion of clean energy, including that produced by nuclear and wind and solar.  On the other hand, the demand for electricity continues to increase due to new high tech needs, including those related to transportation and artificial intelligence.  Canada, unlike the U.S. under President Trump, is still committed to tackling the adverse effects of climate change by attempting to lessen our reliance on fossil fuels and by reducing our green house emissions.

Solar energy and wind power are much more capable of having electricity provided in a more decentralized and efficient way by being located closer to the sources of need, without the requirement for costly long-distance transmission infrastructure.  This more mobile asset can reduce the initial costs of electricity production and in turn the costs of delivery to consumers.  Not surprisingly, the current shift has been particularly jarring in Texas, a Republican state and the nation’s top wind power producer, second only to California in solar energy and industrial battery storage.  Moreover, the Trump administration’s energy policies just don’t make sense, adding to the inflationary cost of electricity for consumers and to the costs associated with the evident extreme consequences of climate change.

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Jun 17

Canadians Can Be Mad at the U.S., But Maybe We Had a Lot to Do With the Problem

by bcurry

Yes, Canada has every right to be mad at the Trump administration for reneging on the current trade agreement previously signed by then President Trump, imposing new tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S., and promoting the concept of a 51st state.  However, I can’t help thinking that we had a lot to do with creating the current crisis situation.

Actually years ago, I briefly thought that there might be some merit in Canada becoming part of the U.S. After all, with the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), our economy became even more integrated into that of the U.S.  Take the automotive sector for example, it was and still is the most integrated industry under past and current trade agreements between the two countries.  The so-called Auto Pact has had a longstanding history and basically prevented Canada from developing its own automotive manufacturing sector.  Perhaps it made sense given that Canada’s population is one tenth that of the American population and our market also became flooded with Asian and European cars.  Basically, we are non-competitive.  However, no one objected given the workings of the global economy, which no doubt benefited the pocketbooks of Canadians through access to cheaper goods.

Other Canadian sectors such as lumber, steel, aluminum and minerals all grew primarily due to the access to American markets.  Our reliance on these markets may have made us a little lazy and not overly innovative in some areas, especially as it pertains to other trading blocs.  Internally, intraprovincial trade barriers further exacerbated the lack of industrial growth and weaker productivity within Canada itself.  Professionals and trades people could not move easily between and among provinces due to labour mobility restrictions.  One could also have done a lot more to promote tourism within Canada and to build the required infrastructure for a modern tourism industry.

In more recent years, the modern world came to see the ever increasing need for rare minerals to support the growth of computerized technologies.  Both Canada and the U.S. became overly reliant on China which supplies about 80% of the much needed processed rare minerals used in such areas as electronics.  Canada has long been aware of its large sources of rare minerals, but has done next to nothing in developing processing capabilities. 

As for energy, Canada has major oil and gas reserves.  However, previous Canadian governments have stalled numerous potential projects such as the construction of pipelines to transport oil and natural gas to British Columbia ports for export to Asia and the U.S. west coast.  The expansion of pipelines within Canada has also been negatively affected by intraprovincial disputes over economic benefits, indigenous and environmental issues. 

In terms of our cultural sector, Canada has become a major cheap source for the production of American films and television series.  However, except for the support of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) and various federally subsidies and tax breaks, the growth of Canadian content has been somewhat limited.  Instead, Canada became very dependent on American content as cable and steaming services steadily grew.  Quebec is the exception primarily because of the need to supply French content within the province through Radio Canada and other Quebec sources.  Moreover, we need to do a lot more to support Canadian culture, particularly through the CBC.

Today, I am a proud Canadian and object to Trump’s assertions about a northern 51st state.  I have seen positive social-economic trends in Canadian society.  With what is happening to the apparent attacks by the Trump administration on all aspects of American democracy, I clearly prefer to remain Canadian.  However, I would argue that much of what is happening economically is partly, if not mostly, our own fault.  As Canadians, there is a lot more that we can do to strengthen our nation.  This might indeed be a significant reversal of fortune.  So, stop complaining and let us demonstrate that Canada has a future of opportunities, with or without past ties to the U.S.


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Dec 31

Current and Future Demand for “New Collar” Workers

by bcurry

A recent article by Lora Kelly of the New York Times describes what is now referred to as “new collar” jobs. Of course, we are all familiar with what we refer to as being blue collar, white collar, pink collar and green collar.  “New collar” jobs are described as those that require advanced skills but not necessarily advanced degrees, especially in emerging high-tech fields like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, electric vehicles and robotics.  Kelly also notes that there are real fears that workers will lose jobs to technology, especially artificial intelligence, in the coming years.  However, there are others who see numerous future opportunities for the labour force.

Even with these new technologies in what is called the new industrial revolution, there will always be a need for highly skilled workers to maintain and adapt technologies in each industry.  Conversely, while there is this emerging demand, numerous companies and governments are having trouble filling many of these new collar jobs.  This lack of supply is partly because of outdated criteria which requires that candidates have college degrees in order to apply.  Some refer to this outcome as the result of certain jobs being “overcredentialed”, resulting in employers overlooking an entire pool of qualified, available candidates.  With the speed with which technologies are evolving, many employers are now looking to finding candidates who can be trained in-house for the technical skills required to meet their current and future labour needs.

Post-secondary degrees will of course continue to be required for entry into specific occupations such as medicine, law, engineering, etc., etc.  However, we have to find alternative means to ensuring the new collar jobs can be filled in a timely and efficient manner, allowing qualified persons to have entry access.  As the future of work continues to evolve, so too do the skills that individuals and organizations need in order to succeed.  In Canada for example, the Public Policy Forum, the Diversity Institute, and the Future Skills Centre joined together in 2020 to publish Skills Next (Skills Next Series – Future Skills Centre • Centre des Compétences futures (fsc-ccf.ca), a series that explores what is working in workplaces, universities, and the labour market.  The studies examine where workers are falling through the gaps in our skills training system.  Their subsequent reports focus on one issue – such as the impact of technology in the workplace, gig work, digital skills, and barriers to employment that some marginalized groups experience – and review the existing state of knowledge and identify areas in need of additional research.

More needs to be done to determine which jobs are and will be “new collar”, as well as how the demand for skilled workers will be met.  This will require the participation and collaboration by universities, colleges, corporations, governments and research bodies to develop an elaborate set of policies to tackle the issues surrounding the evolving needs for future skills development.  There is no sector of the economy that isn’t affected by the introduction of new technologies.  As we enter a New Year, there is no better time than the present to undertake the required initiatives to meet the challenges.

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Nov 27

Are Emerging Office Designs Really Enough To Encourage Return to Workplaces?

by bcurry

Recently, the New York Times published articles about what the writers referred to as the new “Envy Offices”.  The U.S. Green Building Council in recent years espoused the benefits of green buildings, including environment, economic and health and community benefits.  In other studies, various office designers declared that open-plan spaces are actually lousy for workers.  Nevertheless, in the last couple of decades, employers across industries embraced creative open floor plan offices as a way to convey their culture and attract fresh talent.  However, among employees, especially introverts, open office concepts became an increasing source of frustration as the lack of privacy, noise and other distractions made it harder for workers to concentrate.

For those of us who worked in offices where the use of cubicles was common place, the biggest issue tended to be related to poor “air quality” due to inadequate ventilation systems and the resulting volatile organic compounds captured in enclosed buildings.  Such buildings constructed during the seventies and eighties were fully enclosed and pressurized due to the focus on “energy conservation” and associated costs at the time.  As a result, it became clear that such buildings have a higher percentage of workers reporting symptoms such as irritated eyes, nose and throat, fatigue, headache and respiratory symptoms.  In 2007, a U.S. survey found that one quarter of office workers perceived indoor air-quality problems in their offices, and about 20 percent reported their work performance was hampered by air quality.  Experts suspected those figures were conservative, and I fully agree.  Employing modular office furniture, space usage was given a priority whereby a maximum number of workers were squeezed into cubicles, again further reducing air quality.  The use of cubicles also reminded people of their place in the power structure, with higher-ups typically allocated more space and enclosed offices.  People would even tussle over having a cubicle near a window, especially given bad, glare producing and predominately fluorescent lighting found in many buildings.  However, with cubicle walls one at least had the perception that one had some privacy.

Subsequent to the pandemic, all that has changed.  With more employees working remotely from home and the arrival of “hybrid working arrangements” requiring workers to be in the office a specified number of days each week, employers are having to reconsider office designs.  Open office concepts may actually offer a better alternative under current circumstances given a more itinerate workforce and the need to reduce required costly work space and associated expenditures to the employer.  Mobile technologies have greatly facilitated the use of new office designs, which did not readily exist two or three decades ago and initially were very costly.

Historically, the evolution in office designs has been governed by many different considerations over the years, most related to the perceived needs of organizational hierarchies and their priorities.  This often meant that worker needs and the impact on their health and safety were often overlooked.  Studies have shown that poor office building design and poor air quality leads to poorer productivity.  For this reason, it will be interesting to see what office designers have in store for workers in the coming years.

Hopefully, employers and office building designers can learn from their past mistakes and experiences.  Today’s younger workers may not be so forgiving.  With skilled labour shortages across North America, recruitment and retention issues are even more significant.  The first thing that a potential employee will see is the building and its interior workplace design.  With more prevalent remote working arrangements available, making the office more inviting, healthy and aesthetic has become even more important.  This will help determine how one views work and one’s relationship to it.  Think about it, when it comes to today’s workplace, where and how would you want to work?

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Jul 6

Technology Is Great, Except When It’s Abused

by bcurry

Having followed the growth of new technologies during the last four or so decades, it’s hard to believe how fast things have changed.  Perhaps too fast!  All aspects of modern society are affected — everything from communications, transportation, medical practices, banking, employment, data storage, etc., etc.  However, with new technologies there are also opportunities for such innovations to be abused, for all the wrong reasons.

Let’s start with hacking.   The Internet and World Wide Web allows governments, corporations and individuals to communicate and interact in a timely fashion.  However, having so many critical infrastructure computerized, it also allows for potential hacking.  We unfortunately have seen increasing incidents of malware and other hacking tools affecting the security of institutions such as hospitals, municipalities, and airports for example.  In addition, data being collected by different organizations needs to be protected from outside hacking.  Today, our personal information is being gathered and kept in a multitude of sites.  The question of the privacy and security of such information can often be suspect.  Such info can give criminals and others a substantive amount of personal data which can then be used for nefarious purposes such as ID theft.  In some cases, there are criminals who use the technology, including artificial intelligence, to blackmail institutions and individuals.  This growing risk has led to a whole new industry providing high-tech security measures, another major cost to all of us. 

Then there is the case of an increase in the theft of high end vehicles.  Today, there are literally hundreds of microchips in our vehicles.  Some vehicles don’t even need a key to enter or start their ignition, and simply have a start button.  However, despite the fact that manufacturers have introduced some technology to prevent unlawful entry, the crooks appear to have caught up by using new digital means.  With computer devices and mobile apps, they can access and start most makes of newer high end vehicles, while overriding tracking devices used by the police to locate stolen vehicles.  There is plenty of evidence that these crimes involve highly organized criminal groups, both national and international.  Many stolen vehicles end up in Asian and African countries, and are never recovered.  Of course, this adds to the insurance costs associated with vehicles in general.

Now, we have the growing field of artificial intelligence (AI) which again has introduced new concerns about unlawful use.  The use of AI to imitate a person’s voice patterns is an interesting development.  It has already created a stir in the music industry.  For example, it was announced that Sir Paul McCartney says he has employed AI to help create what he calls “the final Beatles record”, including a song by John Lennon.  However, it has also brought about scams and more scams.  For example, someone using AI could duplicate the voice patterns of a loved one, using it to convince someone that the person is in trouble with the law and needs a transfer of money.  Seniors, as in the past, are particularly at risk.

Then there is the question of the increasing use of AI in one’s work, especially affecting white collar workers.  Employers could use the threat of displacing workers through the introduction of AI, notably with respect to productivity and compensation matters.  Research conducted in recent years varies widely on how many jobs will be displaced due to AI.  A 2016 study from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimated that 9 percent of jobs would be completely displaced in the next two decades.  Many more jobs will be transformed, if not eliminated.  AI is increasingly making its way across industries, changing jobs from retail to medicine to marketing.  However, there are those that believe that such technology is also essential to improving the country’s productivity growth, a key measure of how efficiently the economy produces goods.  That could ultimately lead to higher average wages and fewer work hours.  For that reason, they argue that our economy actually needs more AI, not less.  Time will tell.

Everyday there are new studies that dwell on the impact of new technologies such as AI, now and in the near future.  Like with any new technology, there are risks.  It is up to researchers to explore the potential risks and recommend how one can eliminate or at least reduce the risks.

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