FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

May 22

The Hypocrisy of Trump’s Foreign Policy Stance

by bcurry

This week, President Trump sat in a press conference and berated President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, a democratic state, with false claims about a genocide being committed against white Afrikaner farmers.  On the other hand, just a week ago President Trump had traveled to three Middle East countries ruled by repressive and non-democratic regimes and told them he would not lecture them about how they treat their own people.  The above meeting was subsequent to the administration’s fast tracking of the refugee status of dozens of white Afrikaans to the U.S. from South Africa, claiming that they were being persecuted by the government of that country and their lives and livelihood had been threatened.  No proof of the accusations was provided.

In contrast, one of Trump’s first actions on taking office in January 2025 was to issue an executive order suspending the Afghan resettlement program and leaving those eligible in legal limbo.  Approximately 180,000 Afghans had been admitted to the United States after August 2021.  Some were given special immigration visas (SIVs) that provided a path to permanent residency, while others were given humanitarian parole and granted temporary protected status (TPS) that allowed them to stay and to work in the U.S.  On April 11th, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced its decision to end TPS for more than 9,000 Afghans because Afghanistan “no longer continues to meet the statutory requirement for TPS.” Those targeted were given the option to self-deport before May 20, 2025.  Some of these Afghans had served with the American forces as interpreters and in other capacities, and any return to Afghanistan would most likely prove to be fatal to them and their families.

The encounter with President Ramaphosa in some ways echoed the previous February visit to the Oval Office by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.  Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated Zelensky in front of TV cameras, cutting short a visit meant to coordinate a plan for peace.  At one point, Trump even suggested that the Ukraine was responsible for starting the war with Russia which is completely false.  Since then, Trump has subsequently met with Zelensky and had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin in seeking to begin discussions for a permanent cease fire and resolution of the dispute.  However, most experts believe that Putin is simply stringing Trump along and has no intention of committing to fair and equitable negotiations with Zelensky.  Having failed to get both parties to the table, Trump now appears to have decided to concentrate only on economic talks with Ukraine, including those over that country’s rare minerals, and to forgo his intermediary status in the talks.

On May 6th, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump met at the White House and held a brief news event that focused on tariffs, trade and Trump’s repeated assertion that Canada should be the 51st state — a notion that Carney again clearly rejected.  While this meeting was somewhat more cordial in tone, the primary discussion of the existing Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) didn’t really get addressed.  Instead, Trump simply restated that there wasn’t anything Carney could say to convince him to lift the existing tariffs.  However, Carney has called the CUSMA as “the basis for a broader negotiation.”  Remember, that it was under the previous Trump administration that the current trade agreement was signed, which has now been violated with Trump’s recent tariffs on both Canadian and Mexican imports to the U.S.

What we have to date is a weird collage of approaches to foreign policies under the Trump administration.  Where Trump believes there are positive economic returns to the U.S., such as in the Middle East, he is quite willing to enter into bilateral trade arrangements, despite having to deal with non-democratic and repressive regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.  His administration has even alluded to possibly reducing or eliminating existing economic sanctions on Russia imposed after Putin’s past invasion of Crimea and the current armed invasion of Eastern Ukraine.  All of this contributes to the evident hypocrisy of Trump’s foreign policy stance.

Afghanistan Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Immigration NAFTA The Middle East Trade with U.S. Ukraine Ukraine US

Leave a comment »
Mar 25

Electorate in Both U.S. and Canada Appears to be Very Disgruntled. I Wonder Why?

by bcurry

George H. W. Bush Senior, going into his bid for a second term, was frequently told that it’s all about the economy stupid!  The U.S. economy went into a recession in 1990; the unemployment rate rose from 5.9% in 1989 to a high of 7.8% in mid-1991; and the debt percentage of total gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 39.4% in 1989 to almost 46.8% in 1992.  By the presidential election in1992, many conservative Republicans’ support of Bush had waned for a variety of reasons, including raising taxes and cutting defense spending.  Americans were less concerned with his foreign policy successes (e.g. Persian Gulf War victory over Iraq) than with the nation’s deteriorating economic situation.  Thus, despite having once been a relatively popular president, he lost to Bill Clinton.

Today, the primary issue among voters continues to be the economy, and especially the high rate of inflation and high interest rates affecting people’s mortgages and the cost of loans in general.  Yes, there is low unemployment and more people are employed today than anytime since the pandemic.  However, unfortunately for Joe Biden, the average American is struggling on a daily basis to make ends meet, especially since average wages have not kept up with increasing inflation over the last few years.  Many people and businesses are still recovering from the pandemic, which has created a real sense of insecurity and a general malaise within the population.

Taking all of this into account, and that people are not happen with another Trump vs. Biden election, there is a general mistrust with governance.  The same can be said for in Canada where you have a Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and a party that has been in power for over nine years.  The opposition is continuously harpooning about the high cost of inflation and high interest rates that average Canadians are facing.  There is also a good amount of discord over the government’s intention to raise the national carbon tax this coming April, despite it being only one element of several policies aimed at tackling climate change.  However, right now, climate change has taken a back seat to the economy.  A federal election will very likely be called next year in Canada, and all the government can hope for is that the economy will improve and inflation will come down.

Overall, these are tough times for governing parties.  There appear to be no win-win situations.  Government deficits have been climbing steadily, partly in earlier response to the pandemic, with no end in sight.  Wars overseas in the Ukraine and Middle East are not helping.  Funds are being allocated to support the Ukraine against Russia, Israel’s military and the plight of Palestinian refugees in Gaza.  The situation has placed both the U.S. and Canada in a difficult situation given the evolving humanitarian crisis in both conflicts.  In terms of foreign policy, domestically it is a no-win and highly emotive situation for both governments in terms of supporting one side or the other particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In addition, stability in the energy markets is constantly under threat as a result of the sanctions against Russian oil and natural gas exports and the general unstable situation in the Middle East.  As a result, there has been a measurable direct or indirect impact in the form of rising costs for gas and heating fuel in North America.

There is little doubt that we live uncertain times.  There is also little doubt that voters are concerned with the cost of living and continuing hard economic times.  This bleak outlook does not bode well for President Biden and Prime Minister Trudeau.  The question then becomes whether their political opponents can take advantage of the situation?  I guess time will tell.

Canada Climate Change Economy Economy Elections Federal Election Federal Government Federal Government Foreign Policy Presidential Election 2024 Ukraine Ukraine US

Leave a comment »
Feb 16

Russia’s Treatment of Wounded Soldiers in the Ukraine Conflict Mirrors American Treatment of Wounded Vietnam Veterans

by bcurry

Recently, more information is coming out of Russia with respect to the estimated numbers of wounded soldiers involved in the war with Ukraine.  Of course, the total number of actual Russian war wounded is not disclosed by the Russian authorities.  After the war’s first month, the Russian defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, reportedly announced 3,825 wounded, a figure Russia has never updated.  The Central Intelligence Agency, in an article published in January 2024 in Foreign Affairs, estimated that Russian dead and wounded soldiers numbered 315,000.  The actual number may lie somewhere in between.  Nevertheless, the fact is that such a large number of wounded veterans are returning home means that the Russians have a major political problem.

Now let’s go back to a very unpopular Vietnam War and similar reactions by the American government as to the number of returning wounded Viet veterans.  As in Russia, American participation in the war in Vietnam became less and less popular as the war went on.  Although there were protests initially against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the early months, Putin’s regime quickly imposed severe restrictions, including imprisonment, against its opponents.  While open demonstrations by anti-Vietnam war protesters were condemned by many in the U.S. administration, and by Presidents Johnson and Nixon in particular, they did represent a significant degree of opposition as the war went on.  The Pentagon underplayed the actual number of American deaths and injuries for some time, only to release more information towards the end of the war.

With the numbers of returning wounded, the U.S. military health care facilities became overwhelmed.  The same can be said for the Russian situation where accounts from doctors and the wounded suggest that Russia lacks essentials for treatment — everything from sufficient evacuation vehicles to hospital beds to drugs in military run medical facilities nationwide.  The walking wounded will increasingly be seen everywhere among the civilian population, creating a PR nightmare for both governments.  Both wars involved a type of warfare that resulted in horrendous physical injuries, including those involving amputations. 

Without providing actual numbers, the Russian administration recently disclosed that about 54 percent of wounded veterans classified as disabled have suffered amputations.  As for Vietnam, by 1969 more than 500,000 U.S. military personnel were stationed in Vietnam.  As of the current Census taken during August 2000, the surviving U.S. Vietnam Veteran population estimate is a little over one million.  It is difficult to obtain the actual number of physically or mentally injured veterans, except to say that they are in the thousands, many still being treated in VA facilities.  U.S. Wings notes that 58,148 were killed in Vietnam, 75,000 severely disabled, 23,214 were 100% disabled, 5,283 lost limbs and 1,081 sustained multiple amputations.  This most likely doesn’t include those suffering from traumatic stress disorders (TSD).

After the American military left Vietnam, there were no ticker tape parades for the returning vets as most Americans believed the war had been a mistake and preferred simply to forget about it.  In Russia, many of the injured are not openly celebrated and Russians appear “not ready” to see amputees, which satisfies the chosen approach by the Russian propaganda regime.  However, as in the case of Vietnam, the increasing appearance of injured Russian vets within their communities cannot but affect their families and the population at large.  Moreover, they appear to be treated as heroes or not at all.  Efforts are being made to keep them out of the public eye, much like what happened in the U.S. during the Vietnam War.

The Kremlin, military analysts and some medical personnel say, wants to avoid a repeat of the antiwar movements that forced a halt to the Soviet Union’s earlier wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan.  What will happen to the injured Russian vets is anyone’s guess at this time, particularly as the Ukraine conflict is continuing with no end in sight.  If it is anything like what happened eventually to many American Vietnam injured vets, the future doesn’t look too good.

Russia Ukraine US

Leave a comment »
Mar 17

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Has Forced American and Canadian Political Parties to Unite on Several Issues

by bcurry

In both the U.S. Congress and Canada’s Parliament, the Russia invasion of the Ukraine has brought governing and opposition parties together in their support for the Ukraine.  When Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed these governing bodies this week, he received a standing and emotive ovation from both sides of the aisle.  Parties on the left and on the right have suddenly been galvanized in support of their mutual and strong opposition to Vladimir Putin’s war on the Ukrainian people.  One has not seen this kind of unified alliance in many years.  While there may be minor differences in the nature of support for the Ukraine, the general approach has been to provide more military and humanitarian aid to that country and to punish Russia with more and more economic sanctions.

In addition, both the U.S. and Canada have moved to strengthen their support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its resolve to support the Ukraine in this horrendous war.  In addition, the Russian threat has led to leaders in both countries and in Europe to revisit their defence spending.  As Jonathan Weisman in the New York Times notes: “On the left, Democrats are acquiescing to higher military spending and dropping a bid to pull back rapidly from fossil fuels.  On the right, Trump-era isolationism and attacks on the trans-Atlantic alliance are being relegated to the fringe in Congress.”  The current Canadian government has also indicated that it will be moving to increase defence expenditures particularly in light of the Russian threat to Canada’s Artic region.  Canada has been reluctant to increase these expenditures in the past, but both liberals and conservatives now see such an increase as necessary due to the recent events and the need to better support NATO.

Also, both the U.S. and Canada now support an increase in a joint North American energy approach, including an increase in the production and transport of fossil fuels.  Both countries still believe that a reduced reliance on non-renewable energy sources is necessary to combat the impact of climate change, but are more willing to use fossil fuels as a bridge to the increased use of renewal energy sources and green technologies.  This may encourage the Democrats to revisit their anti-pipeline policies in order to facilitate the flow of Canadian crude oil to the U.S., something the Republicans have supported in the past.  Both administrations firmly believe that Europe will need to reduce its dependence on Russia for fossil fuels.  However, this approach will take years to implement and will require the continuing support of future American and Canadian governments.

Canada has one of the largest populations of Ukrainians in the world outside of the Ukraine, forcing governments to support the Ukraine militarily and through sanctions on Russia.  Politically, no government can ignore the impact of the Russian invasion on these Canadians.  One should expect that all political parties will continue to support foreign policies in opposition to Vladimir Putin.  One can also expect that support for the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), implemented by a pact made in 1957 at the height of the Cold War, will increase.  NORAD has been placed under the joint command the air forces of Canada and the U.S., and is the key means for both countries to reinforce our mutual defence of North America.

All in all, we should look forward to greater unity of both left and right leaning political parties when it comes to foreign policy, defence policy and energy policy.  This may be one of the few benefits derived from our reaction of the unfortunate and tragic situation in the Ukraine.  Time will tell!

Canada Ukraine Ukraine

Leave a comment »
Jan 22

It’s Hard to be Optimistic About the Rest of 2022 — Here’s Why

by bcurry

Well, the New Year began much as the old year ended.  Across the board there are numerous reasons for North Americans not to be overly optimistic about the rest of the year.  Several key factors are leading us to this conclusion.

  • The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has created a fourth or fifth wave, depending on who you are talking to.  Although Omicron appears to have possibly peaked, it has once again severely strained our health care systems.  In addition, the unvaccinated continue to represent the largest number of hospitalizations, especially when it comes to patients in our ICUs.  Our health care providers continue to be under a great deal of strain, especially after two years of treating COVID patients.  There is now a tremendous backlog of elective surgeries and treatments.  In addition, although CDC studies show the effectiveness of booster vaccine shots in preventing severe COVID cases, far fewer adults have gotten booster shots to date.  When will we move from a pandemic to an endemic?
  • In most jurisdictions, kids are back for in-person learning in schools.  However, there are still a large number of children under the age of twelve who have not received their first dose of a COVID vaccine.  With the Omicron variant being twice as contagious as the Delta variant, many parents are concerned about the safety of schools and the potential effect of the disease on their children.  Indeed, statistics have shown that more children are being hospitalized due to Omicron.  Questions have been raised about whether in-person learning can continue in the near future.
  • Even with the economy starting to reopen, a number of economic issues have arisen.  Among these is the forecast of continuing hyperinflation over the coming months.  There continue to be supply chain problems, shortages of skilled labour and increasing fuel, food and housing prices.  With the current annual inflation rate running at around six percent, Canadians have not seen such a high inflation rate since 1991.  A survey of consumer expectations showed Canadian households also expect inflation to stay above 3 percent over the next couple of years, above the two percent average considered normally acceptable.  Central banks have little choice but to raise interest rates this year which will have a major effect on government and personal debt payments down the road.
  • Internationally, both the U.S. and Canada, as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), will have to deal with on-going Russian threats suggesting a possible military incursion into eastern Ukraine.  Although the Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the allied countries strongly believe that there needs to be an immediate and firm reaction to any Russian incursion.  As a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin, NATO countries are arming and training the Ukraine military and defence forces in preparation for such an event.
  • China’s economy is slowing, a worrying sign for the world.  China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates that economic output from October through December of 2021 was only 4% higher than during the same period a year earlier.  This is a far cry from previous annual growth rates ranging between 6 and 9 percent in recent years.  The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is now starting to spread in China, leading to more restrictions around the country and raising fears of renewed disruption of supply chains.  Being a major supplier to the North American markets, any continuing slowdown in China’s economy will have a severe impact on U.S. and Canadian businesses and consumers.
  • COVID-19 government relief programs for the unemployed and businesses affected by government-imposed lockdowns and public health measures are being phased out.  This could result in many hardships for lower income individuals and small to medium-sized businesses.  The resulting loss of income due to the pandemic will have an impact on government revenues in the near future.  Many government support programs may have to be reviewed for termination or reduction under expected future austerity measures.

Canada China Coronavirus COVID-19 Economy Economy Federal Government Federal Government Health Care Ukraine US

Leave a comment »
Dec 9

Accusing Canada of Not Living Up to Its NATO Commitments is Overkill

by bcurry

Canada has roughly the same population (approx. 36 million people) as the state of California. Despite this, Canada has a long and proud military history — having significantly contributed citizens and materials to two World Wars and more recently to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) involvement in Afghanistan and Latvia. With a relatively small number of regular military personnel who are well armed and trained, Canada has contributed to numerous peace time operations of both NATO and the United Nations.

At a NATO summit in Wales in 2014, NATO nations for some arbitrary reason agreed to the target measurement of 2 per cent of a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for its total defence spending. Canada currently spends about 1.31 per cent of GDP on defence. However, tabulate the defence dollars actually being spent on the military and Canada ranks an impressive sixth among the 29 NATO nations. A number of expert observers have agreed that NATO’s defence budget formula is very flawed, and allows small obscure countries like Bulgaria and Estonia to declare that they are more than meeting the 2 per cent target. In such cases, the purchase of a new ship or aircraft and one can easily surpass this GDP target. However, these and other similar countries contribute little in actual on-the-ground NATO support or suffer casualties as Canada did in Afghanistan.

So along comes Donald Trump who threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO if all its members didn’t meet the 2 per cent of GDP target. The U.S., as a so-called super power and having its own foreign policy objectives backed up by an immense military-industrial establishment, now spends 3.42 per cent of its GDP on defence. Little surprise there, especially given vast American operations in the Middle East, South-East Asian seas and Afghanistan. For Trump to say that NATO is “obsolete” and frequently compliment Russian President Vladimir Putin are both absurd and even dangerous. After Russia’s “illegal annexation” of Crimea, NATO spoke of its solidarity with the Ukraine. Someone has to stand up to Russian aggression — if not NATO then who?

As part of its commitment to national security and to NATO, Canada is due to embark on major expenditures on fighter jets and the navy. Whether or not Canada meets some arbitrary target in defence spending is not all that critical. What is, is the country’s need to maintain a professional, prepared and well trained military.  I fully believe that the brave and competent men and women of Canada’s armed forces will continue to uphold the country’s proud military heritage. Something that the likes of Donald Trump cannot and will not fully appreciate.

Canada Donald Trump Foreign Policy Military Prowess NATO Ukraine US

Leave a comment »
Mar 24

Can Putin Be Stopped in Crimea’s Annexation ? Not Really!

by bcurry

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s newly self-proclaimed master strategist, must be having a pretty good chuckle right about now. With the annexation of Crimea a fait-accompli and thousands of Russian military firmly entrenched within its boundaries, there is little that the West can do but espouse a bunch of nice sounding platitudes. So much for diplomacy!

With over a million Canadians of Ukrainian descent, Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada is making as much political hay as possible with his recent touch-down-and-jet-off visit to Ukraine. Moreover, Canada has as much influence with the Russians as it does with the Chinese, if not far less. Even though such comparisons may make good press back home, let’s stop comparing Putin to Hitler.

Meanwhile, President Barak Obama can only cautiously back any European response to the Ukrainian situation. As usual, his speeches back home have been very carefully orchestrated. Any talk of further sanctions against Russia is viewed by most as being minimalist, if not farcical. The President is well aware that the G-7, the European Union and NATO are only in a position to take small countervailing measures in response to Russian actions. Military intervention has already been ruled out, and economic sanctions can only go so far.

As for Prime Minister Harper, he needs to lay off the vague threats and rhetoric. As one Canadian journalist wrote, he’s becoming the “butt of Putin’s sick joke”. Even the long-term Russian Ambassador to Canada mused openly as to why Harper was so keen to visit Kyiv at this particular time. Especially since the international community is still trying to grapple with how best to react to Putin’s strategic manoeuvring.

To achieve a long-term solution, the two immediate belligerents have to resolve the current situation themselves. Firstly, the interim Ukrainian government has to get its act together and hold elections to establish a credible and legitimate government. Next, the new government has to urgently sit down with Putin and work out some realistic working arrangements, while ensuring the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the rest of Ukraine. The best that Ukraine can do is recognize that Crimea is now part of Russia and ensure that the remaining Ukrainians in Crimea are protected by Russian authorities.

Ukraine

Leave a comment »
Blog at WordPress.com.