FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Apr 15

Canada’s Version of a Mini-Trump

by bcurry

As the federal election moves forward to its April 28th voting date, there is one leader of a party who is increasingly portraying himself as Canada’s version of a mini-Trump.  That leader is Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).  His discourse prior to the election call has on several occasions been similar in content and tone to that of Donald Trump.  He spoke of Canada being broken; of “woke” predominance among the current Liberal government and the New Democratic Party (NDP); of a need to be tougher on crime; of Canada’s need to “drill-baby-drill” when it comes to fossil fuels, most notably in crude heavy oil found in Alberta.

In recent weeks, Poilievre appears to be even more aggressive, primarily due to the recent polls which show that the Liberal leader, Mark Carney, is now leading: including being the preferred candidate for the position of Prime Minister.  This is a major shift from prior to the election and the resignation of Pierre Trudeau as PM, when the Conservatives had a twenty plus lead in the polls.  However, along came Donald Trump and his tariffs against Canada and all that changed.  Carney has a business, economic and international finance background.  This has led Canadians to believe that Carney can better negotiate some sort of new trade deal with the Trump administration.  In addition, many Canadians are now comparing Poilievre to a mini-Trump because of the Conservative policies and the ongoing slogans surfacing in his campaign. 

Most recently, Poilievre has pushed for tougher measures as they pertain to sentences handed out by the courts under Canada’s Criminal Code.  This included the idea of arbitrary “three strikes” vis-à-vis convictions, whereby one’s prison term will be automatic and potentially longer.  However, one only has to study the consequences of this approach in California where its use clogged up the justice system for years and resulted in extreme over crowding in its prisons.  The situation was so bad that many non-violent prisoners had to be released as a result of COVID 19 and the danger of widespread infection in these crowded facilities. Get ready to build new prisons!

Next, is Poilievre’s pledge to use the “notwithstanding clause” in the Canadian constitution (Section 33) to allow longer sentences for multiple murderers, something that the Supreme Court of Canada had in 2022 ruled against as a violation of an offender’s Charter rights.  Politically, this represents a groundbreaking promise and he would become the first prime minister to invoke the clause while in office.  As one expert noted, the extraordinary use of the “notwithstanding clause” would occur not in crisis situations, not judiciously, not after massive public debates and so on, but due to a majority government which for its own political reasons is playing to its base.  Sounds like something that Trump would do.  Both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh rejected using the notwithstanding clause.  In order to protect established rights, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, more than 50 organizations, human rights advocates and legal experts have openly urged all federal party leaders to commit to a public consultation on the notwithstanding clause within six months of forming a new government.  Without extensive prior-consultation within Canadian society at large, the clause’s federal use would establish a potentially perilous precedent with its first-time usage at the federal level.

Poilievre also appears to want to give carte blanche to the Canadian oil and gas industry to expand its production and exports in order to offset the American tariffs and grow the industry.  This of course would mean rapidly expanding pipeline construction from Alberta to the west coast, speeding up environmental reviews and consultations with indigenous peoples in the territories through which pipelines would go.  However, while this would certainly benefit the oil and gas industry in Canada
, one has to ask whether and by how much Canadians will benefit.  The Conservative base in Alberta
will certainly benefit, but how about the rest of the country?  In addition, many in the Conservative party tend to be “climate change” deniers.  Sounds familiar! 

All in all, Poilievre’s campaign has clearly had elements of Trumpism reflected in its content: something not lost on many Canadians.  Let’s face it, Trump is not too popular in Canada at this moment, and his unpopularity is definitely echoed in this election.

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Oct 21

2024 Predictions For Key Canadian Political And Economic Issues

by bcurry

Predicting the eventual outcome of political and economic matters in any year is pretty difficult, and 2024 has been just as unpredictable in various ways.  Relations with Canada’s biggest trade partner and political ally are about to change as a result of the U.S. elections next month.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that a second Trump presidency would be difficult for the Canadian government, as there are many issues on which he and former president disagree.  However, who would have guessed earlier in the year that President Biden would be forced to drop out of the presidential race in favour of his Vice President, Kamala Harris.  Should the outcome result in a Harris administration, things could certainly be different and hopefully perhaps less antagonistic. 

What is most troubling for the Trudeau minority government is the current state of the economy, particularly as it relates to high inflation.  While inflation has come down from a year ago, Canadians are still faced with continuing high costs associated with housing, food and fuels.  In addition, his government has lost the previous mandated support of the New Democratic Party which assured him of being able to withstand any non-confidence motions in Parliament and the need to call an early election.  However, both the Liberals and NDP cannot afford to have an earlier election at this time, particularly since the opposition Conservatives continue to hold a twenty point lead in the polls.  The Conservatives, knowing that general public opinion is unfavourable to Trudeau, would be more than happy to have a federal election sooner than later due to their expectation to form the next government.  In addition, Trudeau has recently seen several Cabinet ministers resign and will not run in the next election, as well as a revolt in the Liberal caucus seeking to replace him as party leader.  Among Canadians in general, he now faces the lowest approval ratings ever.

While the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next Prime Minister, he isn’t personally liked by most Canadians.  Some have compared him to Donald Trump, but this is somewhat an over exaggeration.  However, he does represent an increase in the presence in Canada of right-wing politics, similar to what has divided Americans politically — nothing out of the ordinary here.  What was hard to predict was the rapid decline in support for Trudeau and the increasing massive support for the Conservatives, whose platform remains much as it was a year ago — alluding to the high cost of living, crime rates and the carbon tax. 

The province of Quebec has itself moved away from past strong support for the federal Liberals and more toward dealing with its own political and economic issues surrounding greater protection of the French language, its lagging fertility rate, immigration targets and financial support for asylum seekers, many from the U.S.   Quebec Premier François Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring.  The current and future position of Quebec voters is difficult to predict.

The rapid growth of ultra-conservative movements in Canada, similar to those in the U.S., has surprised many political experts.  There is no doubt that the economic difficulties experienced by lower-income Canadians has certainly contributed to this outcome, especially as it pertains to the influx of immigrants and their impact on housing costs and social services.  Critics predicted, and rightly so, that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb the projected half a million newcomers in such a short period of time.  The war in the Middle East has also exacerbated the growing level of hate-related incidents against ethnic groups in the country.

What makes predictions next year for Canada even harder will depend on the outcome of the U.S.
elections, and the eventual policy changes that the new American administration will introduce.  One thing is clear is the importance of a more vibrant economy to both countries, despite the fact that inflationary trends appear to be on the decline.  Both countries will shortly have new administrations in power for 2025.

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Aug 9

Political Polarizations Has Increased Mistrust in Many of Our Public Institutions

by bcurry

The New York Times in a very recent article (August 7th) notes that Republican (G.O.P.) contenders in the presidential primaries are bent on feeding voter distrust in public institutions such as the courts, schools and the military.  Obviously, most appear to be following the lead of Donald Trump who, for example whenever he has the chance, publicly attacks the U.S. Justice Department and the F.B.I.  During the pandemic Trump even disparaged the Surgeon General, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Resources.  Now, facing a barrage of indictments by the Justice Department, Trump has further accelerated his personal attacks on these major institutions.  Unfortunately, several other G.O.P. candidates have followed suit in an apparent attempt to appease Trump’s core followers.

All of the rhetoric, including that disseminated by social media and right-wing media, has created an environment where recent polls show that Americans’ trust in their institutions has apparently fallen to historical lows.  Feeding on voters’ already deeply embedded scepticism might have once been seen as politically risky, but social media and the right-wing media have helped change that.  The Republican governor of Florida and a candidate, Ron DeSantis, has led the charge against what he sees as a biased and liberal-influenced education system in his state.  Not to be outdone, another G.O.P. candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has gone on record that he would shut down the F.B.I. and the I.R.S. as part of his fight against the so-called “deep state”.

My primary question is what would replace all these important institutions in a democracy that claims to need independent bodies to deal with issues like law and order, public health, the environment, new technologies and the role of the military?  In a modern society, freedoms are important, but there still has to be some oversight of those matters as they relate to the public good.  Campaign rhetoric perpetuating conspiratorial themes does not help to ensure a rational and knowledge-based debate on many of the challenges that, as a democracy, we face daily.  It’s easy to argue that things should be eliminated, but no one Republican has yet rationally put forward any ideas about how one would go about replacing these institutions — and with what.

The Republican Party, just as the Conservative Party in Canada, has long stood for “smaller government in size and role” going back to the days of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.   However, the current G.O.P. extreme rhetoric goes far beyond the past political stances of Republican presidents, from Richard Nixon to the Bushes.  As the Times article notes: “The proliferation of attacks has alarmed both Republicans and Democrats who worry about the long-term impact on American democracy.  Public confidence in core institutions — from the justice system to voting systems — is fundamental to a durable democracy, particularly at a time of sharp political division.”

Just as I am certain that there are a good number of moderate Republicans in the U.S. and conservatives in Canada who oppose such extreme rhetoric, I am hoping that cooler heads will prevail among our electorates in both countries.  Our democracies are closely watched by countries around the world, and defending our democratic institutions has never been more important in the face of the growth of autocratic regimes globally.  These institutions are essential to defending our democratic values and promoting the public good.  We need to strengthen them rather than knock them down as the result of excessive political polarization.  It’s one thing to push for smaller government influence in our lives, it’s another to suggest that one can simply eliminate or emasculate its influence in highly complex modern societies.  Doing so would just replace democracies with autocracies by centralizing political and economic powers under one regime.  We now have checks and balances, including the courts and justice system, to prevent this from happening.  Unfortunately, the Republicans appear more than willing to minimize such oversight.  Ultimately, the current split in their party, led by Donald Trump’s extremism, could greatly weaken their platform in the eyes of the American electorate, and particularly those of independents.

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Oct 14

When Compared to Americans, Canadians are still Naive about Extremist Groups

by bcurry

Finally, something very interesting is coming out of the House select committee investigating the January 6th 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol.  Ten days before the attack, a Secret Service field office relayed one tip sent to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) warning that members of the far-right nationalist gang the Proud Boys planned to march, armed, into Washington DC.  For years, federal law enforcement agencies have sounded the alarm about rising threats of far-right violence in congressional testimony, in-depth reports and internal memos.  Months before 2020 presidential election, the FBI issued an intelligence report warning that far-right groups and white supremacists pose a “violent extremist threat” to the U.S. and the 2021 presidential inauguration, which could serve as a “potential flashpoint” for violence.  Even with all this available intelligence, largely because of Donald Trump’s continued provocation and resulting inaction, we know what tragically happened on that day.

Here in Canada, there is similar awareness among government agencies such as the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) who are at the forefront of Canada’s national security system.  For years, they have been aware of the activities of foreign and domestic extremist elements operating in Canada.  To be sure, there are linkages and interactions among several far-right groups and white supremacists between Canada and the U.S.  The Internet has simply made the constant communication among such groups all that easier.  This includes platforms and messaging apps like QAnon-hosting 8Kun, Parler, Gab and Telegram; and even such mainstream platforms like Facebook groups and on Instagram stories, Reddit, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube.

Despite the evident surveillance of extremists by the RCMP and CSIS in Canada and constant communication with foreign security agencies, including the FBI and Secret Service, most Canadians continue to be unaware of their activities in the country.  The Trucker Convoy, which occupied Canada’s capital last winter for three weeks and set up blockades at U.S.-Canada borders, had several extremist elements behind its planning and illegal operations.  Taken somewhat by surprise, this forced the federal government to take the unprecedented action of invoking the Emergencies Act in order to help end the Trucker Convoy’s activities.  Authorities appeared to have been taken by surprise by the extent to which small groups could carry out such protests in a threatening way and even call for the overthrow and replacement of the current legitimate federal government.

Like in the U.S., Canada has seen a significant polarization of the political spectrum.  Right-wing extreme groups have latched onto Canada’s angry populism, especially during the COVID pandemic and the imposition of vaccine mandates and other restrictions by governments across the country.  In Canada, at the very least, consensus politics is becoming a thing of the past.  For some time, politicians have been blind to the new emerging reality while the liberal mainstream press remains arrogant and complacent.  Indeed, some politicians have even gone as far as to show their vocal support for so-called freedom movements, although they represent a tiny fraction of the overall population.  Governments have had to once again declare that the right to be heard does not include the breaking of laws and any promotion of violence.

For some time now, I have been highlighting the extent to which there have been radicalization movements in both countries.  For example, The Role of Conspiracy Theories in Radicalizing North American White Folk, Potential of Insurgency Grows Everyday in U.S. and Canada, Canada also has its own Right-wing Extremist Groups, Right-wing Extremism is a Growing Concern in North American Communities, and White Extremism in North America is very Worrisome and Dangerous.  As indicated in FBI and Secret Service documents and gathered intelligence prior to the January 6th Capitol assault, there are mounds of evidence regarding the continuing activities of extremist groups in the U.S.  One would hope that Canadian agencies and mainstream media are paying attention so that Canadians won’t be as naïve as they were prior to the Trucker Convoy last winter.

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Jun 25

Far More Political And Societal Division Among Americans Than Among Canadians

by bcurry

In July in both the U.S. and Canada, people will be respectively celebrating the birth of their countries.  However, these past few years have demonstrated a concerning growth in divisive politics, much more so in the U.S. than in Canada.  Most recently, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade allowing states to ban abortion.  This is despite the fact that polls have shown that only one in ten Americans want an absolute ban on abortion.  In Canada, the right to abortion is supported by all major political parties and the vast majority of Canadians.  When it comes to restrictions on accessibility to guns, the majority of Americans support increasing restrictions to gun ownership, while the gun lobby holds sway in Congress and many states.  Supported by the majority in Canada, there are restrictions on guns, especially handguns and military-style weapons — a number of the latter are outright banned.  Although numerous American organizations and groups have lobbied to eliminate the death penalty in half of the states where it exists, Canada did away with the death penalty decades ago.  It is now believed that the recent Supreme Court’s decision could also lead to a reconsideration of Americans’ right to same sex marriage, something which has been legalized in Canada for sometime now.

A new poll of Canadians by the U.K.’s well known pollster Lord Michael Ashcroft showed that Canada, rather than the polarized society on display in America, is described as a nation that is proud and hopeful.  He concluded that most Canadians are a lot more confident, empathetic, proud and trusting of their own democracy and national identity, frequently seeking a middle ground on controversial issues.  Fully seven in ten Canadians think Canada is one of the best places to live and multiculturalism is a healthy and important element of Canadian society and thus encourages immigration to the country.  Yes, there are some small vocal dissident groups who surface from time to time in Canada, but nowhere near the numbers of American right-wing and social conservative groups who even emerged to contest the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.  Thankfully, there is no equivalent to Donald Trump in Canada.

The current infringement on the rights of American women with the overturning of Roe vs. Wade will further increase the division among Americans across the country.  This will become a highly contentious issue in the upcoming November elections, with pro-life and pro-choice candidates slugging it out on the hastings.  When a draft copy of the decision was leaked in May, even Donald Trump began telling friends and advisers that it would anger suburban women, a group who helped tilt the 2020 race to President Joe Biden.  He felt that would lead to a backlash against Republicans in the November midterm elections.  However, as per the New York Times, with the decision Trump put out a statement taking a victory lap, including applauding himself for sticking by his choice of nominees.  On top of which, the court’s decision is unfortunately expected to disproportionately affect minority women who already face limited access to health care.  In addition, for those women who can afford to come to Canada, Canadian abortion services are currently examining the potential impact in welcoming these Americans.

With respect to another grouping, our indigenous people of North America, both the U.S. and Canada in the past had used residential schools in an attempt to assimilate indigenous populations by eliminating their culture and languages.  However, unlike in the U.S., Canadians began a national reconciliation process reflecting honestly on the darkest parts of history and attempting to move forward to correct past abuses.  Canadians of all backgrounds have come forward to fully support the truth and reconciliation initiatives at all levels of society.  The same issue has barely been recognized in the States.

All in all, one cannot but conclude that there is far more political and societal division among Americans than among Canadians.  The next decade could prove to be one of the most explosive in American history, with the current polarization of American society almost as great as that preceding the American Civil War between the North and South over the abolition of slavery.  Only time will tell.  Not a great time to be living in the States!

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Apr 7

Is the Separation of Church and State Still Possible in the U.S. and Canada?

by bcurry

In both the U.S. and Canada, several religious groups attempted during the pandemic to have certain public health restrictions thrown out by the courts, but to no avail.  They argued that governments were infringing on their rights of assembly and religious freedom, which they felt were guaranteed by their respective constitutions.  However, the courts ruled that there was no such violation of rights since the broad-based restrictions were not specifically directed at religious gatherings, but were directed at places where normally the public would gather, often involving mandated lockdowns. 

Now, I’m no constitutional expert, but under the circumstances the imposition of health-based restrictions appeared to be more than reasonable.  Indeed, many churches, synagogues, mosques and other religious entities were more than happy to comply with the restrictions in their places of worship.  They did so out of concern for the safety and health of their congregations in light of the real dangers attributed to the pandemic.  No one’s specific religious beliefs were placed in jeopardy, and no constitutional rights were violated.  Let’s face it, no one was being persecuted, and churches found alternative ways to effectively serve their parishioners and communities.

Despite all of this, there is little doubt that religious fervour has been heightened among some Christian movements in particular, as evidenced by the growing political involvement of such groups.  Increasingly, right-wing political movements are taking advantage of many believers who are importing their worship of God, with all its intensity, emotion and ambitions, to their political life.  Politicians like Donald Trump had jumped on this band wagon, waving a bible back in June 2020 in front of St. John’s Church in Washington DC for a photo opportunity.  Talk about someone who is obviously irreligious wanting to garner support for his own political ambitions.  For some of his supporters, right-wing political activity itself is becoming a holy act and is often evident at his rallies.

Both the U.S. and Canadian constitutions are designed to prevent any one church or religious institution from having undo influence in the daily act of governance.  This of course is based on the fundamental principle governing the separation of church and state in each country.  However, this does not mean that certain religious groups will not attempt to influence which political parties or candidates are elected.  As in the case of their opposition to government mandates during the COVID pandemic, they spear head other causes such as the ‘right to life’, opposition to gay marriage, and the promotion of conspiracy theories.  Their attitudes are largely framed by an apparent desire to build a nation that actively promotes a particular set of Christian beliefs.

I firmly believe that many of these religious right-wing groups are feeling threatened by what is happening within both countries.  Immigration and high birth rates are moving the population to one of greater cultural and religious diversity, such that within the next decade white Americans and Canadians of Christian faiths will be outnumbered.  They believe that the predicted changes will undermine their Christian values, such that one often hears them, many of whom attend charismatic or evangelical churches, talking about ‘taking back the country.’  With over a hundred million evangelicals in the U.S., their voices make it hard for many politicians to ignore, especially Republicans, seeking election or re-election in many states.  Many are also attracted to populist movements wherever they may emerge.

Just as some churches attempted to support certain political entities in the past, their leaders and parishioners will do so in the future.  The danger is that the abyss between those who promote a state religion and those who support the separation between church and state will continue to grow.  As history has shown, such conflict could eventually lead to dangerous influences on public policy.  Policy which after all results from governance that reflects the current values of the majority of Americans and Canadians, regardless of their particular secular or religious beliefs.

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Feb 13

How Extremist Groups Spread Misinformation And Build Support Using Social Media

by bcurry

For some time now, observers, including myself, have been warning of the growth of right-wing extremist groups in Canada, many influenced by parallel groups in the U.S.  With the prevalent use of social media, the border remains porous to the influx of misinformation and propaganda originating with these American groups.  Their content is easily accessible through social media platforms, and their ideas are amplified on websites such as 4chan and Gab.  YouTube, in particular, has been described as a breeding ground for the alt-right.  They are seeking to recruit more followers, promote conspiracy theories, use provocative and sensational actions to gain news and social media coverage and spread misinformation that supports their views.  At the outset, these groups claimed that COVID-19 was all a hoax, perpetuated by governments and big pharmaceutical companies.  Once they could no longer argue the point as COVID-related hospitalization rates stressed the health care sector and hundreds of thousands of deaths occurred, they moved on to attacking vaccination programs and other public health measures.  As a result of vaccines and other COVID-related mandates implemented in Canada and the U.S., they turned to what they now claim to have been an infringement on our liberties. 

In the case of the current protests under the guise of a so-called Freedom Convoy, groups of Canadians have attacked the governments’ COVID-related public health measures.  Initially, thought to be a reaction of a small group of truckers to U.S. and Canadian vaccine mandates at the border, the protest was easily overtaken by a radical fringe.  At the outset, the convoy was started by Canada Unity, a group that has been extremely critical of all COVID-related mandates.  One simply has to look at the supposed spokespersons for the Convoy, none of whom are truckers, and examine their tactics.  You have several leaders who have participated in past movements, such as Tamara Lich, Dave Steenburg, Patrick King and B.J. Dichter.  They are known for promoting extremist messages and civil disobedience.  The resulting protest tactics include the three-week long occupation of the Canadian capital, Ottawa, and blockades at border crossings in several provinces.  These are anything but “peaceful.”

Next, one has to deal with the means by which such movements are funded.  This is where American web-based outlets such GoFundMe and the Christian fundraising site GiveSendGo come in.  Millions of dollars were raised by these mechanisms.  However, there is now a lot of concern about who are providing the funds, since the majority of funds (more than half) appear to have come from American sources.  It is believed that some of the largest contributors are probably associated with right-wing groups in the U.S.  Given that Canadian authorities have declared the Ottawa occupation and blockades as illegal, they are now working with the Biden administration to examine the nature of such on-line funding activities and whether they are legitimate or not.  Meanwhile, in light of the situation, Canadian authorities and financial institutions have moved to block the transfer of the funds to the Freedom Convoy organizers.  As a result, the organizers have now turned to collecting donations in cryptocurrency, which in itself creates causes for concern.

In the context of COVID alone, far-right movements have been sustained, and in some cases propelled into the mainstream, by co-opting vaccine anxiety and pandemic frustration.  Overall, there is little doubt that far-right extremists have hijacked the current agenda under the general banner of protecting civil liberties.  Unfortunately, waving Canadian and American flags and Trump and anti-Trudeau banners doesn’t really mesh with the reality that we are still in a pandemic.  Prior to the convoy protest, governments at all levels were in already in various planning stages to gradually ease restrictions, while ensuring that the health care system can handle hospitalization levels.  Today, with the Internet and social media, news travels fast.  The pictures and videos of protests in Canada have now led to similar protests in other countries, including the U.S., Australia, France and Austria.  The difficulty evident in the ability of Canadian police services to control the protests in Ottawa and at border crossings is no doubt lending encouragement to foreign elements, especially those associated with right-wing extremists.

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Feb 9

Truckers’ Protest Convoys Could Be Harbinger Of Societal Problems To Come

by bcurry

At the beginning of the global pandemic, I warned that the war against COVID-19 could prove to be a real test for societies, particularly those classified as being democratic.  After over two years of combating the disease, we are now seeing the brunt of pandemic fatigue on the general population due to its obvious economic impacts.  This has led to several anti-government protests, including the current truckers’ protests in Canada, Australia and the U.S.  However, people’s general frustration and lack of trust in governments are just the tip of the iceberg.  Even if countries may be slowly going from a pandemic to an endemic with respect to COVID, the fact of the matter is that some underlying socio-economic trends had been already set in motion.  In Western societies, the growing disparities between the haves and have-nots will no doubt lead to even more rank and file populist protests.

What is contributing to people’s disenchantment with the free market-based economies and political institutions that supposedly protect them?  Recent economic data and polls have shown us several outcomes.  The pandemic and the resulting restrictive economic measures imposed by governments have further exacerbated the gaps in incomes and increased the average person’s lack of trust in their governments.  In recent years, fewer families have been able to become full members of the middleclass.  Educational, employment and other opportunities to obtain or retain middleclass status have become fewer and fewer, especially given the increasing costs associated with a post-secondary education.  Many of the blue and white collar jobs that offered good wages in the past, whether in manufacturing or other sectors, have slowly disappeared due to new technologies, automation and informatics.

Take these factors and evident increases in the cost of living, including the lack of affordable housing and rising costs in everyday essentials, you have the basis for a lot of disengagement.  The majority of economists agree that hyperinflation is here for some time to come.  This is especially difficult for low-wage workers and small businesses.  On top of this, government subsidies which assisted businesses and workers during pandemic-related restrictions are or have disappeared.  As interest rates rise to deal with hyperinflation, there will be increasing debt loads for both individuals and governments.  The lack of affordable housing in most North American cities has now reached crisis proportions.

We have whole segments of populations facing extreme stress levels.  Everyone is talking about mental health issues, something considered taboo not that many years ago.  The growing use of marijuana, prescription and illegal drugs and alcohol has unfortunately led to growth industries which are indicative of our times.  Suicide rates are at an all time high, especially among our youth.  A study released by the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in December 2014 concluded more than 230,000 Ontario adults, amounting to 2.3 percent of the province’s adult population, “seriously contemplated suicide” in 2013.  Since then, things on the mental health front have simply gotten worst.  Spurred on by the pandemic and substance abuse, the use of violence, most notably gun violence, in our communities and domestic lives has grown in the last two years.  Needless-to-say, these are grave societal issues that cannot be resolved overnight.  Are governments and communities up to the challenge?

Populist movements have grown within the U.S. and Canada in recent years, with Donald Trump leading the way.  America today has two major political parties, but the presidential election of 2016 managed to reshape the platforms and agendas of both.  In Canada, one has the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), led by Maxime Bernier, which claims to bring together “common sense, populism, classical conservatism, and libertarianism to create solutions adapted for the challenges of the 21st century.”  Bernier was the only political leader to officially address the protesting truckers and others at their demonstration in front of Parliament Hill.  In the 2021 Canadian federal election, the PPC did not win any seats, despite winning nearly 5% of the popular vote.  Time will tell whether the current truckers’ protests are a sign of things to come in both Canada and the U.S., or just one more anomaly?

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Sep 16

Canada Has Its Own Mini-Trump Running In Current Federal Election

by bcurry

In Canada today, there are a number of small parties running in the current federal election.  Among these is the self-described hard-right populist People’s Party of Canada (CPP) founded in 2018 by Maxime Bernier.  Bernier was once a member of Canada’s Conservative Party, but left due to differing views with the party on a number of policy issues.  Overall, he believed that the Conservative Party had strayed from some of its traditional right-wing beliefs.  In its first election in 2019, the CPP received 1.6 percent of votes, placing it well behind other small parties, such as the Greens (6.5 percent) but well ahead of others, such as the Christian Heritage Party (0.1 percent).  Currently, the CPP does not have a seat in the national parliament.  Recent polls show that the CPP could get slightly more than 6 percent of the popular vote, but again the party is not expected to win any seats, including that in the riding where Maxime Bernier himself is running.

The primary difference with the emergence of Donald Trump in the Republican Party is that Bernier decided to offer his ultra-right views by forming a new national party.  However, many of the same positions taken by Trump’s followers are reflected in the CPP’s platform.  Bernier is attempting to appeal to a portion of the Canadian electorate who are disgruntled with the current political establishment in Ottawa, be it Conservative or Liberal, and are simply angry about the current state of Canadian society and big governments.  Like Trump, Bernier is in favour of reducing immigration, preventing refugees from entering Canada illegally, promoting the construction of pipelines, denying the human contribution to climate change, pushing for a single national identity, moving away from promoting multiculturalism, eliminating foreign aid funding and repealing existing firearms laws. Fortunately, unlike Trump, Bernier has not to date raised issues about voter fraud or rigged elections.

What has really brought out the CPP supporters to the federal election are the restrictive measures taken by the federal and provincial governments to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.  Bernier has referred to COVID-19 public-health measures and vaccine policies as being “tyrannical”.  He has often told his supporters that: “People are fed up and they want to get back their freedom.”  This is a common theme, declaring that government public-health measures are an attack on one’s liberties, especially when it comes to lockdowns, mandated vaccinations and vaccine passports. 

What’s unfortunate about the participation of CPP supporters in the campaign is that their anger has gotten the better of their common sense and civility.  Supporters have been part of a number of often-violent demonstrations protesting the other parties’ leaders, especially at events being held by the current Liberal leader, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  The protesters have attempted to drown out the leaders at campaign stops and have revealed signs with vulgar and insulting slurs and graphics.  What’s regrettable is that Maxime Bernier refuses to condemn the incivility and lack of respect shown by CPP supporters against the opposing leaders, and in particular the PM.  In these difficult times, there is no doubt that there is a lot of pent-up anger among those whose lives and livelihoods have been negatively affected by the pandemic and some of the public-health measures that had to be implemented.  However, given the severity of the pandemic, Canadian support for such measures and the current growing fourth wave, it doesn’t appear that the CPP will gain very much additional support.

Unlike in the U.S. with its firmly established conservative base in several regions, there is little chance that Canada will see a similar ultra-right populist administration in power anytime soon.

Maxime Bernier himself does not like to be compared to Donald Trump for obvious reasons.  Unfortunately, his party has tended to politicize some of the more critical issues such as public-health measures aimed at preventing more COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths.  Unfortunately, the anti-vaxxers now have a political means to promote their virulent opposition to such measures.  By encouraging unfounded and unreasonable protests, Bernier does appear to have taken a page from Donald Trump’s agenda.

Canada Donald Trump Federal Government Justin Trudeau Populism in Canada US

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Oct 24

Canadian Federal Election Says A Lot About Canadians

by bcurry

Like the U.S., Canada is a country of many diversities — be they regional, cultural, urban or rural, or economic. The recent federal election results demonstrated once again a wide spectrum of diversities and issues among the Canadian electorate.  Firstly, we elected a minority government giving the incumbent Liberal Party another term in office.  Secondly, the division of the votes and seats was obviously split according to regional support, again a further recognition of diverse interests.  After all, Canada is formally a confederation of competing provincial entities. In addition, the majority of voters rejected populism and far right-wing and left-wing policies.  Most Canadians prefer to maintain a more centrist position.

One now has greater representation by a nationalist party, the Bloc Quebecois, in Quebec whose only platform is to federally support only those policies that benefit the province of Quebec. The western provinces, mainly Alberta and Saskatchewan, overwhelmingly supported the pro-pipeline Conservatives. In addition, rural areas in most provinces primarily supported the Conservatives while urban and suburban areas such as Toronto and Montreal supported the Liberals.

Having become disillusioned with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government over unethical behaviour and failures to fulfill certain 2015 promises, the electorate sent a clear message by voting for a minority regime. One part of the message was a concern that a Conservative government would proceed to cut services and programs to return to budgetary surpluses and reduce deficit spending.  However, Canadians are not prepared to support a government bent on a number of social and environmental policies promoted by the left of center New Democratic Party and Green Party.  Once again, voters preferred to make safer choices which maintain the ‘status quo’.

What is particularly interesting this time around is that all the political parties had more candidates representing women, minorities and indigenous persons. This reflected their adherence to the multicultural and socioeconomic elements of Canadian society.  The most populist-oriented party, the newly formed Peoples Party of Canada, made no significant inroads and won no seats.  Not surprising given their anti-immigration policies.

Yes, there is always a degree of dissension among certain regions over the outcome. Overall however, the election results gave Canadians the type of government that they preferred at this time, rejecting much of the negativity displayed during the campaigns.  A minority government will have to gain the cooperation of the other parties in order to legislate and to avoid being forced to call another election during its term.  In effect, the Prime Minister will have to display a greater degree of humility, something certainly lacking under his majority government.

Canada Federal Election Populism in Canada

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